November 2010 forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

For November, 2010 ...

(1) IMT value -- mean monthly temp -- deg C. (1961-90 avg was 6.6)

(2) highest temp anywhere in Ireland as per met.ie

(3) lowest temp anywhere in Ireland as per met.ie

(4) rainfall percentage of normal (all stations monthly summary)

(5) sunshine percentage of normal (all stations monthly summary)

(6) Bonus question -- Strongest wind gust at any land station in knots.

If you wish to use the template ...

( IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... GUST)

As always, entry deadline is end of the first day of the month, which is a Monday this year. Entries accepted under penalty on Tuesday 2nd.

I considered snow for the question but was concerned that it could snow somewhere on the first (not too likely but it would tend to wreck the contest), but if you want to comment on when it might snow, be my guest.

The race seems likely to tighten up looking at the October forecasts, so good luck to all in November. And don't forget we have a winter forecast contest thread too.

Rebelbrowser

I'll start the ball rolling so:-

( 7.7 ..... 17.6 ..... -4.3..... 103 ..... 93 ..... 65)

As for snow, I'll say the first snow at one of the met.ie stations will be on 26 November.

pauldry

7.9 ..... 17.1 ..... -2.3..... 124 ..... 98 ..... 69

Snow for me too reckon end of month prob 28th

Deep Easterly

( 8.1c ..... 17.3c ..... -2.1c ..... 70% ..... 90% ..... 61knts)


Snow 17th

WolfeIRE

( 6.8 ..... 15.8 ..... -7.5 ..... 135 ..... 100 ..... 57)

first snow in Knock on November 19

nacho libre

6.7 ..... 17.3 ..... -3.9..... 115% ..... 90% ..... 61)

snow will fall on mt erigal, on the 28th of November, at 10:15pm

cherryghost

Long time no post :pac:

7.5

16.4

-5.1

110%

105%

68knts



Snow in the Wicklow Mountains, November 20th. Niiiice.

200motels

( IMT 5.9..... MAX 13.9..... MIN -2.8.... RAIN 168..... SUN 71.... GUST)66

thetonynator

(1) IMT value -- mean monthly temp -- deg C. (1961-90 avg was 6.6) :7.6

(2) highest temp anywhere in Ireland as per met.ie :16.0

(3) lowest temp anywhere in Ireland as per met.ie :-2.0

(4) rainfall percentage of normal (all stations monthly summary) :200%

(5) sunshine percentage of normal (all stations monthly summary) :75%

(6) Bonus question -- Strongest wind gust at any land station in knots. :71 knots


As always, entry deadline is end of the first day of the month, which is a Saturday this year. Entries accepted under penalty on Sunday 2nd.

Isn't the first a Monday???



As for snow: I predict no snow for the month of november.

gothwalk

( 7.1 ..... 19.2 ..... -4.5 ..... 90% ..... 110% ..... 72)

I'm guessing at snow in the latter half of the month, but only on northern hills.

talkabout

( 6.7 ..... 16.6 ..... -4.0..... 92 ..... 102 ..... 71)

Snowfall on 19th November

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for setting me straight on the calendar, get a grip MTC ... so anyway might as well have a wild guess today, can always edit later ...

6.0 ..... 17.1 ..... -7.0 ..... 115 ..... 127 ..... 52

and I think it may snow a few times after the 20th, but possibly as early as the 14th. my research model suggests a mild first half and a cold second half as you might guess from the current models and the forecast above. confidence not that high but I think we may see some Scandi blocking later in the month. :eek:

homolumo

6.7 ..... 16.8 ..... -7.2 ..... 133 ..... 113 ..... 55

TheInquisitor

( IMT 5, MAX 13 MIN -7 RAIN 83% SUN 115% GUST 56 )

Snow 18th

M.T. Cranium

BTTT

John mac

7.1 ..... 16.3 ..... -5.3 ..... 110 ..... 92 ..... 64

snow on 24th dont know where. but it will.:D

jd

( 7.1 .....16.8..... -4.7 ..... 102 ..... 95 ..... 68)

21st

thetonynator

I apologise for my indecisiveness but all this talk of a cold few weeks soon has worried me that my mild and wet forecast could be wrong . . .

( 6.8 ..... 16.0 ..... -4.5 ..... 105% ..... 90% ..... 75)


And snow on the 13th.


Sorry again!!!

kindredspirit

(7.0°C.....16.0°C.....-5.0°C.....170%.....70%.....58kn)

I'm not forecasting, I'm only guessing. And I'm not very good at guessing as you can see. :mad:

6.8 ..... 17.1 ..... -5.1 ..... 103 ..... 92 ..... 73

Snow on the 14th

jambofc

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... GUST
7.2

---

15.9---- -4.2

---

120%----143%

---

72


snow to fall 25th

dasa29

( 7.3°C.... 18°C ..... -6°C ..... 125% ..... 95% ..... 70)


Snow on the 19th. (my birthday:D)

Strasser

7.8 ..... 16.0 ..... -2.3..... 133 ..... 83 ..... 70

Lumi

( 6.9 ..... 15.8 ..... -5.1 ..... 72 ..... 126 ..... 70)

Snow on the 15th

mickger844posts

( IMT 6.3c MAX 15.8c MIN -5.1 RAIN 89% SUN 110% GUST 70)

Snow on the 30th

nilhg

( 7.2 ..... 16.2 ..... -3.2 ..... 119 ..... 89 ..... 79)

Sponge Bob

( 7.1 ..... 16.1 ..... -3.8..... 111 ..... 122 ..... 75) kt gust

SeaFields

6.2 ..... 17.5 ..... -6.2 ..... 120 ..... 70 ..... 80

Su Campu

6.6 ..... 16.1 ..... -4.1 ..... 85 ..... 95 ..... 54

Danno

(1) IMT value -- mean monthly temp -- deg C. 7.2c

(2) highest temp anywhere in Ireland as per met.ie 16.6c

(3) lowest temp anywhere in Ireland as per met.ie -5.6c

(4) rainfall percentage of normal (all stations monthly summary) 90%

(5) sunshine percentage of normal (all stations monthly summary) 70%

(6) Bonus question -- Strongest wind gust at any land station in knots. 57kt.

Joe Public

6.9 ..... 16.9 ..... -4.9 ..... 139 ..... 99 ..... 79


Some snow on the 9th maybe.

Redsunset

( IMT 7 MAX 16 MIN -1.5 RAIN 110 SUN 100 GUST 60kts)

DOCARCH

( 6.8c ..... 16.2c ..... -3.2c ..... 108% ..... 93% ..... 83kts)

Snow on the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains November 21st

M.T. Cranium

Just a reminder to enter by midnight (entries accepted Tuesday at penalty).

Speak Now

( 7.0 ..... 16 ..... -4.8 ..... 115 ..... 85 ..... 70)

Deep Easterly

IMT 1999-2009 daily averages for November, based on 0000hrs to 0000hrs daily mean values from met eireann stations Casement, Claremorris, Shannon Apt, Mullingar, Kilkenny (1999-2007) and Oak Park (2008-2009) to give a sense of what is 'normal' over the country for the month:

Daily Mean Max:



Daily Mean Min:




Mean daily mean sea level pressure values for November along with mean daily rainfall total for the month:







Data source:
Ogimet

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts received to date, for November 2010
_________________________________________

Forecaster ......... IMT ..... max ..... min ..... rain ..... sun ..... wind ..... snow
_______________________________________________________________

Deep Easterly ..... 8.1 ..... 17.3 ..... -2.1 ..... 070 ..... 090 ..... 61 ..... 17
pauldry .............. 7.9 ..... 17.1 ..... -2.3 ..... 124 ..... 098 ..... 69 ..... 28
Strasser ............ 7.8 ..... 16.0 ..... -2.3 ..... 133 ..... 083 ..... 70
Rebelbrowser ...... 7.7 ..... 17.6 ..... -4.3 ..... 103 ..... 093 ..... 65 ..... 26
cherryghost ....... 7.5 ..... 16.4 ..... -5.1 ..... 110 ..... 105 ..... 68 ..... 20
dasa29 .............. 7.3 ..... 18.0 ..... -6.0 ..... 125 ..... 095 ..... 70 ..... 19
Danno ............... 7.2 ..... 16.6 ..... -5.6 ..... 090 ..... 070 ..... 57
nilhg ................. 7.2 ..... 16.2 ..... -3.2 ..... 119 ..... 089 ..... 79
jambofc ............ 7.2 ..... 15.9 ..... -4.2 ..... 120 ..... 143 ..... 72 ..... 25
Sponge Bob ....... 7.1 ..... 16.1 ..... -3.8 ..... 111 ..... 122 ..... 75
gothwalk .......... 7.1 ..... 19.2 ..... -4.5 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 72 ..... late
John mac .......... 7.1 ..... 16.3 ..... -5.3 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 64 ..... 24
jd .................... 7.1 ..... 16.8 ..... -4.7 ..... 102 ..... 095 ..... 68 ..... 21
Jerry Seinfeld ..... 7.0 ..... 16.0 ..... -4.8 ..... 115 ..... 085 ..... 70
Redsunset ......... 7.0 ..... 16.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 110 ..... 100 ..... 60
kindredspirit ....... 7.0 ..... 16.0 ..... -5.0 ..... 170 ..... 070 ..... 58

Con Sensus ........ 7.0 ..... 16.3 ..... -4.6 ..... 110 ..... 096 ..... 69 ..... 18

Joe Public .......... 6.9 ..... 16.9 ..... -4.9 ..... 139 ..... 099 ..... 79 ...... 9
Fionagus ........... 6.9 ..... 15.8 ..... -5.1 ..... 072 ..... 126 ..... 70 ..... 15
hellboy99 .......... 6.8 ..... 17.1 ..... -5.1 ..... 103 ..... 092 ..... 73 ..... 14
WolfeIRE ........... 6.8 ..... 15.8 ..... -7.5 ..... 135 ..... 100 ..... 57 ..... 19
DOCARCH .......... 6.8 ..... 16.2 ..... -3.2 ..... 108 ..... 093 ..... 83 ..... 21
thetonynator ..... 6.8 ..... 16.0 ..... -4.5 ..... 105 ..... 090 ..... 75 ..... 13
nacho libre ........ 6.7 ..... 17.3 ..... -3.9 ..... 115 ..... 090 ..... 61 ..... 28
talkabout ......... 6.7 ..... 16.6 ..... -4.0 ..... 092 ..... 102 ..... 71 ..... 19
homolumo ......... 6.7 ..... 16.8 ..... -7.2 ..... 133 ..... 113 ..... 55
Su Campu ......... 6.6 ..... 16.1 ..... -4.1 ..... 085 ..... 095 ..... 54
mickger844post .. 6.3 ..... 15.8 ..... -5.1 ..... 089 ..... 110 ..... 70 ..... 30
SeaFields .......... 6.2 ..... 17.5 ..... -6.2 ..... 120 ..... 070 ..... 80
M.T. Cranium ..... 6.0 ..... 17.1 ..... -7.0 ..... 115 ..... 127 ..... 52 ..... 14
200motels ......... 5.9 ..... 13.9 ..... -2.8 ..... 168 ..... 071 ..... 66
TheInquisitor ..... 5.0 ..... 13.0 ..... -7.0 ..... 083 ..... 115 ..... 56 ..... 18

Please note, the first snowfall forecasts were optional and won't count for points, so if you didn't enter, feel free to add a guess and I'll edit it into the table. There was actually a report of snow last night at Ballyhaise, but I imagine that was bogus (freezing fog or something similar). I will have a bonus question on snowfall in December.

The forecasts in general tilt slightly towards mild and wet (and cloudy) which is no doubt influenced by the obvious start in that direction.

John mac

Oak park 17 at 12:00

Speak Now

John mac wrote: »

Oak park 17 at 12:00

That's beaten 16.6 they got yesterday!

thetonynator

A lot of max forecats out done at midnight!!:mad:

Joe Public

John mac wrote: »

Oak park 17 at 12:00

Any chance ME would update the 4th Nov readings for Oak Park?

They have been slipping a good bit of late especially on long weekends.

Sponge Bob

Gust competition, 63kts in Malin 21:00 hours so far that is the highest today.

thetonynator

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Gust competition, 63kts in Malin 21:00 hours so far that is the highest today.

Will surely be beaten soon enough . . .

homolumo

thetonynator wrote: »

Will surely be beaten soon enough . . .

if not looks likely to happen Thurs/Fri

thetonynator

homolumo wrote: »

if not looks likely to happen Thurs/Fri

Although it looked on the 9.30 news that it might be tracking fairly far north . . .

DOCARCH

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Gust competition, 63kts in Malin 21:00 hours so far that is the highest today.

According to Met E today, max gust yesterday was at Malin Head at 61kts.

Sponge Bob

DOCARCH wrote: »

According to Met E today, max gust yesterday was at Malin Head at 61kts.

I was quoting data from this page . . Not for me to decide what the judges select as the correct figure in the end.

M.T. Cranium

I noticed that difference also, but would imagine that we may see something stronger in any case.

Meanwhile, for the first seven days of November:

IMT 9.2 C

rainfall 220% of normal

sunshine 40% of normal

thetonynator

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I noticed that difference also, but would imagine that we may see something stronger in any case.

Meanwhile, for the first seven days of November:

IMT 9.2 C

rainfall 220% of normal

sunshine 40% of normal

:eek:

:eek:

:eek:

:P

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I noticed that difference also, but would imagine that we may see something stronger in any case.

Meanwhile, for the first seven days of November:

IMT 9.2 C

rainfall 220% of normal

sunshine 40% of normal

Rainfall 354% of normal at Claremorris and considering that this station is one of the wettest inland synoptic stations, that is quite a substantial figure! :eek:

Deep Easterly

Claremorris rainfall total for the first 8 days of November has broken the 100mm mark. Now standing at 103.8mm as of midnight last making it the wettest reporting met eireann station so far. Belmullet is a close second with its 93.8mm, while surprisingly, Valentia is only on 81.0mm so far. I am pretty sure it will catch up though soon.