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The Christmas Weather Thread!
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Rebelbrowser wrote: »From MT's winter forecast just published...
"Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many. ...."
Time for a little Bing Crosby ladies and gentlemen........
A little bit early but . . .
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With just over a month to go, Netweather have now joined the party...
Their first Christmas 2010 weather forecast is below:-
Christmas 2010 - Dreaming of a white Xmas? - Update 1, 22nd November
So here we go - the first Christmas forecast for 2010.. With a cold spell and snow around this week, the hype surrounding a possible white Christmas is sure to increase, but is it likely to happen?
Click to view full sizeIf you've read the winter forecast then you'll know that we're expecting a cold December this year, so that's a definite tick in the first box!
Looking at the chart for Christmas day on the right hand side from the Climate Forecast System (you can view these in NW Extra), you can see the cold air (blue colours) is not too far away from the British Isles at all so although a green Xmas would be the outcome if this chart mirrored the outcome of the big day, it's the overall trend we need to watch, and there's plenty to be positive about on that front.
Im summary then, it's early days yet and there are sure to be a lot of twists and turns along the way, but as we stand today there's every reason to be upbeat about the chance of a White Xmas this year. Give Santa alongside a shake to find out the current chance of snow in your area.
BTW their accompanying "Shaking Santa" forecast gives the ROI a 25% chance....0 -
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Well, i'm afraid it's not looking good for most of us to have a white Christmas.
Published at 10:00, 29 November
(Next update at 10:00, 6 December)
Written by Peter Gibbs
Summary
Winter arrives, but when will it leave?
Last week's prediction of a classic cold snap certainly came true, with snow piling up across the northeastern parts of the UK and new November lowest temperature records being set in Wales and Northern Ireland.
The only real question for this outlook is how long the wintry weather can hold out against milder air moving in from the west. Unfortunately, that's the most difficult question to answer.
Monday 29 November 2010 to Sunday 5 December 2010
Snow becomes more widespread
Snow cover is likely to be more widespread by the end of the week. This means that once the biting easterly winds die down by the weekend, overnight temperatures are likely to fall to exceptionally low levels once again under clearing skies.
Still, the more settled weather over the weekend should mean plenty of opportunity to play in the snow, and for the road and rail crews to catch up.
Monday 6 December 2010 to Sunday 12 December 2010
A wintry mix looks likely
Into the new week, it will remain very cold for many with further snow showers likely, especially around some coastal areas, and widespread overnight frosts.
There is a chance that more persistent rain, sleet and snow may try to spread into the southern half of the UK for a time, making it slightly less cold here.
Monday 13 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010
Through to Christmas
Confidence becomes much lower as we look further ahead into the Christmas week.
There is a signal that the severity of the cold spell will ease, although with temperatures still a little below normal. This suggests there is still scope for some snow and frost, but it may be more marginal.0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »Well, i'm afraid it's not looking good for most of us to have a white Christmas.
Published at 10:00, 29 November
(Next update at 10:00, 6 December)
Written by Peter Gibbs
Summary
Winter arrives, but when will it leave?
Last week's prediction of a classic cold snap certainly came true, with snow piling up across the northeastern parts of the UK and new November lowest temperature records being set in Wales and Northern Ireland.
The only real question for this outlook is how long the wintry weather can hold out against milder air moving in from the west. Unfortunately, that's the most difficult question to answer.
Monday 29 November 2010 to Sunday 5 December 2010
Snow becomes more widespread
Snow cover is likely to be more widespread by the end of the week. This means that once the biting easterly winds die down by the weekend, overnight temperatures are likely to fall to exceptionally low levels once again under clearing skies.
Still, the more settled weather over the weekend should mean plenty of opportunity to play in the snow, and for the road and rail crews to catch up.
Monday 6 December 2010 to Sunday 12 December 2010
A wintry mix looks likely
Into the new week, it will remain very cold for many with further snow showers likely, especially around some coastal areas, and widespread overnight frosts.
There is a chance that more persistent rain, sleet and snow may try to spread into the southern half of the UK for a time, making it slightly less cold here.
Monday 13 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010
Through to Christmas
Confidence becomes much lower as we look further ahead into the Christmas week.
There is a signal that the severity of the cold spell will ease, although with temperatures still a little below normal. This suggests there is still scope for some snow and frost, but it may be more marginal.
Its a long way off, I wouldnt show that sad face just yet, It could get a lot colder than what we had the past week0 -
Well on foot of MT's forecast this morning I'm very optimistic of a White Christmas.....
For the record, this is what Netweather and TWO are saying....
Netweather (11/12/2010):-
Less than two weeks to go until the big day and there's a cold spell about to get underway. No wonder the hype about a possible white Christmas is starting to build!
Click to view full sizeThe talk over the past week has been the cold spell due to start this week, and the question we've been asking on each update is whether or not it will last right through until Christmas, and tonight's update is no different.
We're now into range of the medium range forecasting models, so alongside we have a chart from the GEFS (global ensemble forecast system), and as you can see it's a near miss for the big day with the cold air just squeezed away to the north.
This is typical of a lot of the forecast model output currently, but Christmas day still being a long way off there is still a lot of uncertainty in the outcome - in fact there's a lot of uncertainty even at the closer range right now. With this in mind the white Christmas risk for many parts of the country is just a touch lower this evening than in the previous update, but it's still all to play for!
Give Santa alongside a shake to find out the chance of snow in your part of the country.
(When you shake Santa you a get 30% for us....)
TWO meanwhile say on 9/12/2010...
Forecast headline
Our ninth Christmas 2010 forecast update suggests an increased chance of snow falling on Christmas day across Britain. Chances overall are now notably higher than average, and we think there is a good chance of cold weather persisting for much of the second half of December.
Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas DayNorth of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 40% - 50% (risk increases to 50% further east)
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30% - 40% (risk increases to 40% further east)
As I said, the chances seem to gone higher again on current model predictions......0 -
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I see some of the models are beginning to cover Christmas day (though probably inaccurately at this stage):-
ECMF (I can't paste this) is at
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
GEM is
The GEM is the better looking of those for cold.
I get the impression none of the serious forecasters are happy to go beyond 23 December at present. Hopefully by Friday they might make a stab at a Christmas Eve / Christmas Day forecast? (though MT is tantalisingly talking of a possible Christmas Eve storm which he thinks might be snow rather than rain!)0 -
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PA45TnJQxhU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN7LW0Y00kE
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