totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup 2011

Nulty

Thats it! RP Trophy is out of the way and BC Ante Posts are made so back on the road to Cheltenham!

Many of the 'experts' don't expect Kauto Star to be the first to regain the Gold Cup twice and I have to agree that neither do I. It wouldn't suprise me if he did though. Denman is 12/1 (!) to reclaim the staying chasers biggest prize. Imperial Commander has a better chance than either in my opinion and was imperious last year. Whether you think NTD or Nichols is the better trainer, Imperial Commander ran Kauto to a nose when both were fresh at Haydock last year.

I'll be looking at chasers recently graduated from the novice ranks myself and Burton Port is one that appeals but not hugely. He's not the biggest but you know he'll give his heart and his jumping is best when he's under pressure towards the end of a race. I've nibbled him at 25s.

Joncol is my cold, calculating, betting fancy this year. Paul Nolan put off the festival last year after winning the Irish Hennesy. The trainer gives the impression that soft ground is a must for the horse but I think he's just protecting the horse because of his size.

What A Friend really should be favourite. His run in the British Hennessy last year was a precursor to a very good season. The Lexus puts him ahead of Joncol but I'm not so sure he would have beaten Imperial Commander (totesport Bowl) if it was run at Cheltenham.

LutherBlissett

Burton Port is interesting enough - he looked nice when winning the Mildmay at the end of last season.

However, he is small in frame, and you have to wonder if that would be a bit of an obstacle to winning a 3m2f chase around Cheltenham - the Gold Cup is a pretty demanding physical test.

Time will tell if he has trained on to be more robust than last season, but I wouldn't be running out to back him just yet.

Nulty

Like I said, I think he's a better jumper when he's under the kosh. He doesn't jump spectacularly in the first part of his races but in the second part he is noticeably better than his race rivals. Game as anything. He jumped around the GC course just fine last year finishing second to Weapons Amnesty in the RSA.

UrbanSea

I think What A Friend is below top class,and I don't think any of last year's novices will be strong enough to challenge for the Gold Cup apart from Long Run

Colonel Sanders

I've had a good look at this race as I want to oppose Kauto, Denman & IC

Weapons Amnesty would be the obvious one if he came back from his set back but having shortened initially over the summer he's weak enough again so doesn't look good for this season anyhow

UrbanSea

I've said it before,I'd love to see Big Bucks over fences. But if he can't jump then I guess it won't happen

Nulty

Weapons Amnesty is an obvious danger to the old brigade but like you say colonel, he's not being considered as of yet. I will approach the season under the assumption that he won't be ready for March.

UrbanSea

The Gold Cup is possibly the worst race to go into rusty,what an achievement it would be for Gigginstown if they were to win the Gold Cup so quickly though.

mdwexford

Somersby, that is all.

Nulty

Somersby at present isn't being aimed at the Gold Cup.

LutherBlissett

Nulty wrote: »

Like I said, I think he's a better jumper when he's under the kosh. He doesn't jump spectacularly in the first part of his races but in the second part he is noticeably better than his race rivals. Game as anything. He jumped around the GC course just fine last year finishing second to Weapons Amnesty in the RSA.

I wasn't referring to his jumping ability, small horses can be excellent over fences, I was referring more to his quite slight frame, and how he would handle a well run 3m2f test around Cheltenham. It remains to be seen.

Weapons Amnesty I love, prior to his injury he looked extremely classy. Post injury, I wouldn't be on him until he has proven that he has come back to something like top class.

the groutch

if he can handle the faster ground, Pandorama has a big chance imo

mdwexford

Nulty wrote: »

Somersby at present isn't being aimed at the Gold Cup.

Really, whats he being aimed at then?

Nulty

Queen Mother afaik. Hen Knight says she didn't think he got home over 2m4f at Aintree. Thats all I know.

EDIT

"He's much more likely to run in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham - he probably won't be a Gold Cup horse," she added.

Colonel Sanders

Somersby looks like a horse who'll stay further alright but could be a year too early or the Gold Cup

The way the front of the market is there has to be a few at big rices that an get in the shake up come March. I was of the same opinion last year and had narrowed it don to either Imperial Commander or Aran Concerto for a speculative ante post bet. No prizes for guessing which of the 2 I actually backed unfortunately

UrbanSea

He who did not run at Cheltenham?

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Somersby looks like a horse who'll stay further alright but could be a year too early or the Gold Cup

<snip>

Thats the thing isn't it. He very well could turn out that way but for now I'd say its best that he sticks to the shorter distance. Second by 3/4l in the Arkle gives me the impression there are other divisions for the taking before his stamina is determined. He'll be 7 in 2011.

I'm a massive fan of the horse, but I'd prefer he tried the Ryanair or Queen Mother this year. While he could develop into a GC horse I wouldn't be backing him ante post for it before I saw him running well against decent opposition over 3m. Especially the silly prices available now.

UrbanSea

Ahhhh I just can't decide. Think I'm gonna go for Joncol ante-post.

Juwwi

Punchestowns at 20/1 looks the best value to me.

I cant see Denman or Kauto being good enough this year.

LutherBlissett

Well, Denman has always been a special horse to me, but I agree - he has a mountain to climb to win back the Gold Cup. It will of course be interesting to see what form he is in this season, but apart from flashes of brilliance last year, the Denman of old had disappeared.

In that vein, I have been looking for a new "favourite" (it's what makes the season worthwhile sometimes).

I had a close look at Joncol, but honestly - I would need to a) see him win on something other than soft/heavy, see him beat horses other than the Irish stalwarts, c) see him prove competence at Cheltenham or similarly undulating track, and d) see him win/ operate in a medium/ large field as opposed to the few runner affairs he has mostly been successful in.

I do like him though!

mdwexford

I think you lot are smoking crack. :eek:

Joncol is nowhere near the required standard imo even allowing for the decline of Kauto, Denman and Imperial Commander.

Long Run and Punchestowns looked classy pre Cheltenham but both were very disappointing i thought.

Regardless of what Knight says Somersby looked all over a Gold Cup horse to me last season. Things didnt go right for him at Aintree getting kicked before the race and he was never jumping and travelling like he can.

Burton Port had a cracking season last year and is being somewhat overlooked because hes not the flashy hype horse in the Henderson yard but if he progresses a bit he could be a contender.

Nulty

I've watched the Lexus and a couple other of Joncols races and two things are definitely not in his favour.

1) He jumps to his right and that might have cost him the Lexus last year but Cheltenham is LH (obv) and every inch could count. It is seriously prnounced when he's under pressure like both times at the last fence in the Lexus and the Irish Hennessey. He still managed to beat Cooldine in the latter

2) For such a big horse he's an awfully awkward jumper. To beat the likes of IC, Denman and Kauto his jumping would need to be much better especially at the end of his races.


So you don't think the Irish have much hope this year md?

Nulty

UrbanSea

mdwexford wrote: »

I think you lot are smoking crack. :eek:

Joncol is nowhere near the required standard imo even allowing for the decline of Kauto, Denman and Imperial Commander.

.

Heroin.:pac:
In all seriousness,I'd take Joncol in a match bet with Imperial Commander. And who knows what Kauto or Denman in particular will we see this year? Denman excelled in the Hennesy last year,and did well to come second in the Gold Cup,but let's look at that race,in all fairness,it wasn't the best,and I thought Denman was going to collapse after the race it took so much out of him. Paul Nolan was on ATR this morning and is very keen on Joncol this year,they're sending him over 2 miles before the John Durkan. If he wins the latter,goodbye 25/1 for the Gold Cup,hello 14s.

Nulty wrote: »

I've watched the Lexus and a couple other of Joncols races and two things are definitely not in his favour.

1) He jumps to his right and that might have cost him the Lexus last year but Cheltenham is LH (obv) and every inch could count. It is seriously prnounced when he's under pressure like both times at the last fence in the Lexus and the Irish Hennessey. He still managed to beat Cooldine in the latter

2) For such a big horse he's an awfully awkward jumper. To beat the likes of IC, Denman and Kauto his jumping would need to be much better especially at the end of his races.

Again I'd remove IC from that list. I think Joncol's jumping will have to have been sorted out over the winter,but at least the horse will stay. We know that,so even losing a length at a fence jumping left wouldn't affect him as bad as some others.
As for the ground,there's no point guessing now what it'll be like come March. But any rain and Joncol will be bang up there I think.

Nulty

IC will jump for fun around Cheltenham. If your looking to get him beat it would be his stamina/fitness/age that you would be relying on getting him beat. He was impeccable last year. I haven't seen his Ryanair but I imagine its pretty similar. He's 5 from 6 in chases at Cheltenham...loves the place.

UrbanSea

I'd still take Denman or Kauto or one of the top novices ahead of him this year. His run at Aintree was shocking. Laughable. Twiston Davis loves that horse,and as mdwexford said,they must be living in dream world in relation to that horse(Paddy Brennan included)

cson

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/kauto-star-a-surprise-entry-for-hennessy/781061/top/

Racing Post wrote:

BY RACING POST STAFF 1:02PM 27 OCT 2010

KAUTO STAR was a surprise entry for this season's Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on November 27, as the dual Gold Cup winner featured among nine of Paul Nicholls' top-class chasers unveiled for the 3m2½ handicap chase on Wednesday.

RELATED LINKS
Hennessy card
The ten-year-old was last entered for the Newbury race in 2007, but has only contested Grade 1 and 2 chases since 2005.

Last year's front two, Denman and What A Friend, are also both entered for the champion trainer, along with Neptune Collonges, Take TheBreeze, Taranis, The Tother One, Tricky Trickster and Niche Market, who was third in the race last year when with Bob Buckler.
Of Kauto Star's entry, Nicholls told the Racing Post: "He's going to Down Royal next Saturday as you know.

Of the rest of his big guns entered for the race, he added: "It's early stages yet and they all have plenty of options."

The Ian Williams-trained Weird Al, a leading contender for the RSA Chase last season before injury days before the race, as well as Diamond Harry, a winner of nine of his 12 starts, could also feature.

There is a strong Irish contingent, with no fewer than 11possibles featuring among the entries, with Vic Venturi, Pandorama and China Rock all potential runners.

That's out of left field from Nicholls if he actually intends running him. Can't imagine it's anything other than an insurance policy of sorts - creating more options if he needs them type of thing.

UrbanSea

He would never send Kauto to such a demanding handicap chase where he' d have to carry about fifty stone on his back

LutherBlissett

In fairness to IC, he was probably over the top for the season when he ran at Aintree.

mdwexford

Nulty wrote: »

So you don't think the Irish have much hope this year md?

Yeah pretty much none, i thought Cooldine had a cracking chance on the day last year but he disappointed me.

As regards IC i mainly dont like him because he is so unreliable and just throws in stinkers for no apparent reason.

At Cheltenham if he is super fresh he is a hell of a horse though.

More hope of me running in the Hennessy than Kauto.

UrbanSea

mdwexford wrote: »

More hope of me running in the Hennessy than Kauto.

What weight would you be carrying? Might go ante post...



In relation to Imperial Commander being wound up when he went to Aintree,I still would have backed What A Friend even if both were fresh.

Morgans

mdwexford wrote: »

Yeah pretty much none, i thought Cooldine had a cracking chance on the day last year but he disappointed me.

As regards IC i mainly dont like him because he is so unreliable and just throws in stinkers for no apparent reason.

At Cheltenham if he is super fresh he is a hell of a horse though.

More hope of me running in the Hennessy than Kauto.

I think the stinkers all come when he is not fresh. 11/8 at Aintree was the price for a reason.

The biggest value in the Gold Cup market is the 5/1 about him winning it again. Disappopinted that Twiston-Davies is trying to prove a point by going to the King George with him.

Joncol is as likely to turn up in the Ryanair than the Gold Cup, and has a pretty medicore chance in each. Type to run well in the National though.

UrbanSea

I'd be happier to back Joncol over 3+ than over 2 miles or whatever. He doesn't shout to me that he wants the Ryanair trip

UrbanSea

I had to think for a second I thought the Ryanair was 2 miles. What is it 2mile 4 or 5 is it?

Morgans

Joncol led in the lexus by 3l at the last and finished 3l down at the line. Was ridden that day as if stamina wasnt an issue, but it was. If he needs soft ground, I cant see him getting the 3m3f of the Gold Cup, might have some chance in good ground. I dont think he is quick enough for the Ryanair either, but is a decent horse.

Gon10

greetings wrote: »

I had to think for a second I thought the Ryanair was 2 miles. What is it 2mile 4 or 5 is it?

2m5f

UrbanSea

Morgans wrote: »

Joncol led in the lexus by 3l at the last and finished 3l down at the line. Was ridden that day as if stamina wasnt an issue, but it was. If he needs soft ground, I cant see him getting the 3m3f of the Gold Cup, might have some chance in good ground. I dont think he is quick enough for the Ryanair either, but is a decent horse.

That's true,but I was impressed with his win in the Hennessey. He kept on well from Cooldine when I thought he was beaten,and that was soft to heavy in places that day. Irish soft is much different to English soft so even if it were to be good to soft come Gold Cup day I'd fancy him to stay.

Morgans

greetings wrote: »

That's true,but I was impressed with his win in the Hennessey. He kept on well from Cooldine when I thought he was beaten,and that was soft to heavy in places that day. Irish soft is much different to English soft so even if it were to be good to soft come Gold Cup day I'd fancy him to stay.

He has the size to improve again this summer, but the Hennessey was run at a crawl. Schindlers Hunt and In Compliance in with a shout turning in. Cant see him staying in a strongly run Gold Cup. His jumping isnt nearly good enough either.

UrbanSea

Going back to a point I made before though,we don't know what kind of Kauto or Denman we're going to see,and I'd write off Imperial Commander straight away. He looks like more of an improver than either of them and if he's gonna go for the GC,Nolan is going to have to have him in tip top shape and he'd have to have him perfectly schooled. I think if he's ever going to have a shout in it,it'll be this year.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote: »

I think the stinkers all come when he is not fresh. 11/8 at Aintree was the price for a reason.

The biggest value in the Gold Cup market is the 5/1 about him winning it again. Disappopinted that Twiston-Davies is trying to prove a point by going to the King George with him.

Joncol is as likely to turn up in the Ryanair than the Gold Cup, and has a pretty medicore chance in each. Type to run well in the National though.

Yeah without a doubt, just annoys me.

He really does seem to be a jackass, he should have never ran at Aintree last year either. Id just go to the Betfair and then keep him fresh as a daisy for the Gold Cup.

Joncol is not up to winning any Championship race at the festival imo.

Nulty

Joncol turns 8 next year and like someone said before has the potential to improve due to his size. The harder you look at it though the harder it gets for him. He's not very quick, has jumping issues, supposedly needs soft ground, may not even be entered in the GC. Not an ante post bet unless you know something the rest of the racing world doesn't know about Joncol.

I can't believe anyone would write off IC after his display last year. His record fresh and at the track is almost impeccable. What ever about his running at Kempton, he did it last year and it worked. They obviously want to stick to the tried and tested. Why fix it if its not broken? The Gold Cup is the be all and end all. At first I was opposed to the KG-GC route but it gets the most important result.

Pandorama is one that warrents serious attention. Hes due to face Kauto in the JNWine in a week and a half. The beating of Weapons Amnesty has to be the best Novice form available and with that one out you might want to get your bets on before Down Royal cause he'll run a big one. Though his main target is the Hennessey.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Joncol turns 8 next year and like someone said before has the potential to improve due to his size. The harder you look at it though the harder it gets for him. He's not very quick, has jumping issues, supposedly needs soft ground, may not even be entered in the GC. Not an ante post bet unless you know something the rest of the racing world doesn't know about Joncol.

You have a good point. **** it,I think my uncle knows Nolan I'm going to get him to ask.

Colonel Sanders

I really don't get why they are intent on going for the King George again with IC. Surely either the Betfair and straight to the Gold Cup or maybe take in either the Lexus or the Pillar en route if they insist on 3 runs

I'm really struggling to find a potential bet here.

Juwwi

Morgans wrote: »

I think the stinkers all come when he is not fresh. 11/8 at Aintree was the price for a reason.

The biggest value in the Gold Cup market is the 5/1 about him winning it again. Disappopinted that Twiston-Davies is trying to prove a point by going to the King George with him.

Joncol is as likely to turn up in the Ryanair than the Gold Cup, and has a pretty medicore chance in each. Type to run well in the National though.

IC will be a 10-y-o next year and going by the stats only two 10-y-o winners in the last 20 years I think he is bad value with age against him.

Also with only 1 winner over 10 winning it since 1969 I think both Kauto and Denman can be ruled out.

I know you are going to say that if the horse is good enough on the day age wont matter and some dont like stats but they dont lie.

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

I can't believe anyone would write off IC after his display last year.

You would need to have very strong reasons to dismiss him, and shouldnt be written off without very very careful considerations. I could see the temptation to oppose him at 3/1, given the vagaries of ante post, but 5/1 is too big for me.

Thought he ran well at Kempton after walking through one last year, but it seems that he is going for the race as much out of NTD's stubborness as anything else. As if he has to prove a point regarding going right-handed and Im sure beating KS appeals as well.

Joncol has 30l to make up on last years form. Its doable, but its a huge task, and its pretty much the same for all of last year's novices.

UrbanSea

I'd lay until the cows came home if Imperial Commander went to the King George.

Morgans

robbie1977 wrote: »

IC will be a 10-y-o next year and going by the stats only two 10-y-o winners in the last 20 years I think he is bad value with age against him.

Also with only 1 winner over 10 winning it since 1969 I think both Kauto and Denman can be ruled out.

I know you are going to say that if the horse is good enough on the day age wont matter and some dont like stats but they dont lie.

Yeah. Stats are rarely done objectively. Often they tell you what you want to tell.
For instance, if you chose 22 years rather than 20 years in the first stat, a different story would be told.

In the past 22 years, the ages of gold cup winners are:
7 - 5 wins
8 - 5 wins
9 - 8 wins
10 - 4 wins

A stat could be generated to stop every horse that lines up in the gold cup. Sun Alliance winners dont win it - doesnt stop Denman, that horses dont regain Gold Cups didnt stop Kauto Star. I think form is still the most reliable factor and the best guide to what will win any race.

Juwwi

Morgans wrote: »

Yeah. Stats are rarely done objectively. Often they tell you what you want to tell.
For instance, if you chose 22 years rather than 20 years in the first stat, a different story would be told.

In the past 22 years, the ages of gold cup winners are:
7 - 5 wins
8 - 5 wins
9 - 8 wins
10 - 4 wins

A stat could be generated to stop every horse that lines up in the gold cup. Sun Alliance winners dont win it - doesnt stop Denman, that horses dont regain Gold Cups didnt stop Kauto Star. I think form is still the most reliable factor and the best guide to what will win any race.

I respect your opinion but in fairness sun alliance winners have a bad record,only 1 horse has ever regained the cup and going into last years race kauto and denman had the 2 best pieces of form by a mile yet neither won it.

I could'nt back IC at 5/1 tho,
when dutching both punchestowns and long run would give 10/1.

As I say tho not many like stats and if IC was gona be 9 next year I would back him Im fully basing my opinion on his age.

Morgans

robbie1977 wrote: »

I respect your opinion but in fairness sun alliance winners have a bad record,only 1 horse has ever regained the cup and going into last years race kauto and denman had the 2 best pieces of form by a mile yet neither won it.

I could'nt back IC at 5/1 tho,
when dutching both punchestowns and long run would give 10/1.

As I say tho not many like stats and if IC was gona be 9 next year I would back him Im fully basing my opinion on his age.

Exactly my point. Long Run...how many 6 year olds have won the gold cup?

I dont mind stats, but its very easy to knock horses using them. Imperial Commander had some form to give him a chance, something Tom Segal pointed out a month before the race, but had he fallen, something wouldnt have come out of the clouds to beat Denman to fit the stats.

Using the Sun Alliance/Regaining gold cup stats would have meant losing out on the two previous gold cup winners. Each to their own of course.

Juwwi

One last thing on the stats since 1990
Six 10-y-o's have started fav for the race with none winning.
With the 2 10-y-o's winning.
I have'nt a clue how many ran since then and failed.

1990 desert orchid 10/11f
1992 carvills hill 1/1f
2000 see more bussiness 9/4f
2002 looks like trouble 9/2f
2006 beef or salmon 4/1f
2010 kauto star 8/11f.

Even if your the sort of person that ignores stats you would have to take
notice that 10-y-o's are getting past their best and are'nt able to compete with the younger horses around cheltenham on gold cup day regardless of what form they bring into the race or what price the bookies have them at.

Nulty

If you approach the market logically, you can assume that Kauto is going to go well enough at Down Royal and bag another King George. That is obviously going to contract his price and possibly push IC out after he blows up at Kempton.

Isn't the best thing to do if your going to have it off on Imperial Commander wait until the dust settles after Christmas and take a potentially bigger and better price?

I'm expecting Pandorama to give a good showing at Down Royal and win the Hennessey.