Where is the Stock Market going from here; the final ascent. Up or Down?

pirelli

Hi Folks

I am wondering if anyone could lend some idea's as to where the market ( USA Europe Asia in particular ) is going in the short term.

I would have liked to see some bad data as an excuse for a correction and I am not sure I will get to see that correction with data thus far not being that bad and we might just continue up. I suppose it's a premature to say, but tech is looking very stable thus far. Chips makers are relatively solid, not booming by any means but stable.

I am just surprised we are climbing out of the march lows so elegantly and expect some turmoil at some point. Like I say i'm just after idea's of where this is all going. I would not like to see a market crash but those crafty devils in wall street are alway up to something and like to swoop down every now and then.

I will say if this continues that the VXX or 'VIX ( whichever you prefer ) is getting very cheap and is one safe asset to rely on when the fed does finally withdraw but im not holding my breath they will and it's likely they will announce some quantitive easing similar to japan which will might mean a continued rally.

This article calls this latest surge a Bubble which could be worse than the tech and housing bubble. If this is a new bubble how long will it last and what's ahead short term.

http://www.investorplace.com/20507/fed-blowing-another-bubble/

Sorry for the italics but it is just a snippet.


Instead of trading to their own natural harmonics, these two completely different asset classes are mirroring each other minute by minute. This isn’t the work of human hands. This isn’t how markets are supposed to work.

Something historical and unprecedented is happening. Never before has the world experienced what we are seeing now: A massive debasement of the global monetary system as central bankers around the world engage in a competitive currency war to boost exports. Before, the gold standard or international currency accords prevented unencumbered money printing. But not anymore

what we are seeing is a trade way being played out in the foreign exchange markets. And instead of tariffs and import restrictions, we are seeing central bankers try to convince traders they are the ones being the most irresponsible by creating too much money and devaluing their unit of exchange. They all want to be punished. They all want people to sell their currency. When everyone tries to do this at the same time, currency valuations don’t really change — but the financial system gets flooded with money

This is exciting and frightening at the same time; and the consequences will be felt for years to come.

All this easy money is being used by the robot traders to bid up assets of all types. Eventually, it will all come crashing down as inflation expectations get jacked higher — pushing interest rates up and threatening the global economy. For now, that’s a worry for another day.

It all comes down to this: A new bubble, bigger than the tech and housing bubbles, is being created

ixus

Pirelli, for me, it is a question of money flows. If you look at the futures charts of US equities, precious metals, oil, Ags and Softs, you will see they have sky rocketed as the dollar has collapsed. The currency wars you may be hearing about are very real. I've really seen it take hold of the markets over the last few weeks.

The euro is way too strong given the weakness of the majority of the countries within it. Expect adverse news on either Ireland,Portugal or Italy to be used to weaken it by the end of the quarter. German output is suffering with a strong euro and that is bad for the whole of Europe. (that's the conspiracy theorist in me anyway).

pirelli

Thanks ixus,

Industrial production in Spain and italy have also improved a little and Germany of course is Europes leader with 11.5 % annual growth. Inflation is rising slightly but both USA and Europe are suffering from a widening trade Gap despite the currency being at odds.

Must read Atricle about third quarter earnings season...

LINK: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Q3-Earnings-Forecast-Pick-the-Low-Hanging-Fruit-First/s/article/view/p/mid/7/id/861/


This article just came out from the Small Cap Network. It is at least a very useful insight into the third quarter from their perspective. Perhaps FINANCIALS are now the next sector to rally. Anyone agree?



The heart of third quarter earnings season is upon us, and it's undoubtedly going to be an interesting one. Will we see a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" following one of the best Septembers - as well as one of the best third quarters - in decades? The arguments suggesting this is the case are pretty good, but the ultimate driver of stocks from here will be the same one as always.... net disappointment, or net satisfaction. That's why we want to take a top-down look at what's expected for Q3, on a sector-by-sector basis.

We'll do that directly. After that though, be sure to check out some of the community's latest picks and comments. On the fight card this week are Cardium Therapeutics Inc. (AMEX: CXM), Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP), Move Inc. (NASDAQ:MOVE), Aviat Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVNW), and more.



Technically speaking, third quarter's earnings season was kicked off on October 7th with the Alcoa (AA) $0.03 'beat'. The company earned $0.09 per share (sans items), versus estimates of only $0.06, on a 15% improvement in revenue. Not bad, but it's also not a complete picture of how corporate America did in Q3.
The reality is, the earnings fireworks really don't start heavily until the coming week, which is why I wanted to wait until today to give you this earnings preview.

Just to set the tone here, the bar is set on the low end of the spectrum for this earnings season, thanks to gradual but persistent revisions - lower - over the last four months on the earnings front. Oh, that's not to say we won't see a massive year-over-year increase in bottom lines; income is actually still expected to be 24% above that generated in Q3 of 2009. That's a dubious comparison though, on top of the fact that expectations have been lightened up for this earnings season.

Translation? Look for a lot of beats (as usual), but don't interpret that as 'value'. Just for perspective, sales are only expected to be 7% better on a yoy basis - companies are cutting their way to success.

You want to make some money though, right? With that being the case, what you really need to know are which arenas or sectors are most apt to prove exciting or disappointing to the market. Can do.

The biggest earnings improvements are expected to come from the financial sector; income is forecasted to be up a hefty 68% versus last year's Q3... despite a slight dip in the top line.

At the other end of the scale - and this is stunning - telecom's income is anticipated to fall 8%, despite a slight increase in revenues. In fact, telecom is the only group actually expected to post a decline in income. Healthcare is the next worst sector on the forecast front, but its income is likely to be at least flat, with a 9% increase in sales.

Two other noteworthy laggards.... utilities and consumer staples, which are each expected to grow income by 4% on equally tepid revenue improvements. Bear in mind, however, that it's more difficult to put up huge earnings increases when your historical earnings didn't take massive hits like other sectors' did.

Beyond that, the picture starts looking brighter across the board, with earnings growth forecasted to be anywhere from 22% (for consumer discretionary) to as high as 43% (for the industrials... the second-best-loaded sector this earnings season). Materials, energy, and technology stocks are all expected to post 30% to 40% improvements in income, thanks to revenue improvements in the teens.

While it can be fun to find some hidden clues or unnoticed details in these numbers, this is probably a scenario where you simply take things at face value and go fishing in sectors that are poised to impress and surprise for the better. That's financials to be sure, but tech, energy, materials, and industrials are all good bets.

On the flipside, telecom is a good bearish bet based on this information.




All that being said, expected earnings growth is one thing - valuation is another. [Great growth rates are tainted by expensive stocks, while tepid growth can be offset by undervalued stocks.] So, to really put these numbers in perspective, we should compare them to their corresponding P/E ratios - historical and projected - as well as consider PEG ratios. That's what the nearby table does. It's here where things get really interesting...and telling.

While the average growth rates over the last year should have feasibly weeded out the recession's impact on earnings, its echoes are still being heard. So, take the average one-year growth rates with a grain of salt. In fact, take the Q3 growth projection with the same grain of salt; the comparisons are still ridiculously easy in some arenas.

Nevertheless, this table underscores some of the problems as well as opportunities.

Take telecom for instance. While the forecast for shrinking earnings doesn't bode well, that's the least of the sector's problems. While not 'the' most expensive group on the board, it's one of the pricier ones, which is something a low-growth sector like telecom really can't afford right now. The same goes for consumer staples and healthcare, though at least the latter isn't pushing its luck on the P/E front.

As for the sweet spots, technology, energy, materials, and financials - four of the top five sectors in terms of expected Q3 earnings improvements - are still on the low end of the P/E scale as well as the PEG scale. The fifth one, industrials, isn't bad either; it's just a tad expensive based on 2010's earnings projections.

Point being (and like I said earlier) take the Q3 earnings growth forecasts at face value and pick the low hanging fruit first. No need to try and squeeze blood out of a turnip.

Helping you get more out of the market,
James Brumley
Editor - Small Cap Network

ixus

As regards financial's, there is a massive structural problem there in terms of incorrect procedures with foreclosures and the legal documentation surrounding them. This really just started gathering steam in the last two to three weeks max but is already building up momentum.

Foreclosuregate it is being called. The best blogs IMHO to keep track of this are nakedcapitalism and calculatedrisk. Nakedcapitalism has been on top of this for a long time.

You can get a quick run down here and here.

snippet:

Major banks — including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Ally Bank, which is owned by GMAC — have suspended foreclosures after admitting they had submitted tens of thousands of affidavits to the courts, attesting to facts about the defaulted loans that had not been verified by the bank employees signing the documents.

The Times’s Eric Dash and Nelson D. Schwartz reported in Thursday’s paper that in their rush to process foreclosures, banks hired inexperienced workers (“Burger King kids” as one former banker derided them) who barely knew what a mortgage was.

The problems may go far deeper. The banks’ procedures for keeping track of mortgages may also be seriously flawed. If there are problems in establishing a chain of title, it could — again — call into question the value of mortgage-backed securities. That would mean litigation, which would harm bank profits, and in a worst case, risk another economywide disruption.

As important, and dismaying, as all this is, it must not obscure the underlying problem: potentially millions of foreclosures that could and should be avoided.

A mandated, national moratorium may be unavoidable if banks resume a rush to foreclosure before all the legal issues are resolved. So far, there is no sign of that. A moratorium won’t address the fundamental problem that banks have not competently and aggressively pursued ways to keep more financially viable Americans in their homes.

The MBS market seems to always give trouble.....

So, the next question you have to ask yourself is, who has the exposure to these products? Sure, the US ones originated them and have significant exposure both in terms of assets and legal consequences but, do the European banks hold some of these? The answer is almost certainly yes.

mickman

industrial production figures etc is irrelevant

this market is being driven by QE2. liquidity is sloshing around and ending up in the stock market. id go long this market and hold until the US fed gives their first inkling that they are going to tighten

pirelli

mickman wrote: »

industrial production figures etc is irrelevant

this market is being driven by QE2. liquidity is sloshing around and ending up in the stock market. id go long this market and hold until the US fed gives their first inkling that they are going to tighten

I would agree with that Mickman. Better to be Long these days and risk losing a few percent than gambling on the shortside. However maybe all these problems are suspended whilst QE2 continues.

But! QE is usually a desperate last resort when the Banks are broke. It is hardly worth celebrating. The market has to factor in the problems ahead at some point. So far the market is following traditional routes. Sell in may and go away and christmas rallies etc.. Does it drop around october usually.. i cannot recall but if there is a traditional correction it will happen then.

mickman

pirelli wrote: »

I would agree with that Mickman. Better to be Long these days and risk losing a few percent than gambling on the shortside. However maybe all these problems are suspended whilst QE2 continues.

But! QE is usually a desperate last resort when the Banks are broke. It is hardly worth celebrating. The market has to factor in the problems ahead at some point. So far the market is following traditional routes. Sell in may and go away and christmas rallies etc.. Does it drop around october usually.. i cannot recall but if there is a traditional correction it will happen then.

if the US economy recovers itself then the stock market will go up, if it dosent than QE2 will be implemented and guess what happens? the stock market goes up. playing this market on the short side is a crazy game

dont fight the fed and follow the liquidity.

Tomba

Mark this post.

Time to sell is soon approaching; straight after US elections to be exact. QE2 is already factored in. I've been slowly unwinding my long positions in recent days.

I never short but the gravy train is over for a while ... trust me.

T

mono627

Tomba wrote: »

Mark this post.

Time to sell is soon approaching; straight after US elections to be exact. QE2 is already factored in. I've been slowly unwinding my long positions in recent days.

I never short but the gravy train is over for a while ... trust me.

T

Any chance you'd like to tell us why you think this?

mickman

Tomba wrote: »

Mark this post.

Time to sell is soon approaching; straight after US elections to be exact. QE2 is already factored in. I've been slowly unwinding my long positions in recent days.

I never short but the gravy train is over for a while ... trust me.

T

ha ha, what a laugh.

thanks for telling us what ur crystal ball tells you.

if you dont reliase that no one can predict the markets then your in the wrong game bud

pirelli

mickman wrote: »

ha ha, what a laugh.

thanks for telling us what ur crystal ball tells you.

if you dont reliase that no one can predict the markets then your in the wrong game bud

I think the There are people that have at the very least a fair idea where the markets are going. You said yourself the Fed are propping this market up and so using News and Data you can get an idea. Eventually a picture forms and you can realise whats happening.

This thread would be pointless if we ignore other peoples opinions. If the conditions were right i could easily call a correction but they are not so perhaps there are times of uncertainty but eventually there always becomes clarity and you can get in on that early.

mickman

pirelli wrote: »

I think the There are people that have at the very least a fair idea where the markets are going. You said yourself the Fed are propping this market up and so using News and Data you can get an idea. Eventually a picture forms and you can realise whats happening.

This thread would be pointless if we ignore other peoples opinions. If the conditions were right i could easily call a correction but they are not so perhaps there are times of uncertainty but eventually there always becomes clarity and you can get in on that early.

the fed is propping up the market which is obvious because they said they would do that. thats very different from some irish guy reckoning he can tell when the market is going to correct and to "trust him". He even goes as far as to give the "exact" timing. saying something like this gives people that have little experience in the stock market false hope into thinking they will be able to time the market. What he has said is very dangerous as gullable people will take it at face value and its complete rubbish

the market may correct after the elections and it may not. no one knows and you can only make your decisions on how your stocks are acting

the only people that can actually tell which way a stock will go is the people that can actually move the market when they trade a huge position

strmin

I remember "analysts" predicting parity between Euro and USD by August and S&P500 under 800 in September.
It is impossible to predict markets, so don't waste time trying.

pirelli

mickman wrote: »

. saying something like this gives people that have little experience in the stock market false hope into thinking they will be able to time the market. What he has said is very dangerous as gullable people will take it at face value and its complete rubbish

Seriously Mickman.. do you really think that is his problem. For that matter do you really believe that one post will cause another person a loss. It is the accumalation of all ideas tat form together to give an accuarate picture.

An experiment in the market place involving a hundred people happens as follows. Each person guessed the weight of the cow that was up for sale.
Then when all the answers were in they took the mean of that Answer and believe it or not it was the exact weight.

So if people generate ideas ( without this nonsense about people might read my post and lose all their money) then the mean of these ideas will make it easier to get a picture.

The reason we are even discussing this point in the market is proof enough that we are in some curious to see a correction. Anyone that post's here wants to see a correction. China's inflation rise might just cause a slight breather but i would be excited at a correction here.

Also because I think if the market is being touted to being artificially run almost robotically then it will react even to a greater degree to technicals.

strmin wrote: »

I remember "analysts" predicting parity between Euro and USD by August and S&P500 under 800 in September.
It is impossible to predict markets, so don't waste time trying.

If i was trading options i wouldn't have clue where the market is going. i would be reckless to buy puts last month betting the market will correct at this technical point. However that is what I belive and it cost'ts me nothing to trade equities based in that.

So for short term equity perspective i think it is possible to try and guess where a correction might occur technically and where a rally might start both PR and tech wise.

Here is one analyst form the wall street Journal.

"The market was on a one-way street to the upside for six to seven weeks, and now it's time to take a breath," said Peter Boockvar, managing director and equity strategist at Miller Tabak. With earnings season ramping up, he noted investors are paying particular attention to company-specific news rather than broader economic themes. "The market is starting to splinter and investors are realizing they can't get through earnings season with their eyes closed," Boockvar said.

pirelli

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-retrench-on-housing-corporate-reports-2010-10-26?dist=markets

“Right now, the overall market is marking time until next week,” said Gary Flam, portfolio manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors. “There’s a lot of data next week both economic as well as political that’s going to really affect the next major move in the market

Economic data also was mixed!

Tomba

Reasons for my thoughts:

1) Market didn't break late April highs
2) Market is looking for more than $100b a month QE2 from bernanke... At this point it does not look likely he'll surprise
3) Market is looking for big republican win (more than 54 seats I think)
4) Mutual funds are sitting with ALL time low cash funds of 3.5%. if Market corrects they will have to dump shares big ... and very quickly. They cannot afford to hold on
5) Gut feeling

mickman

Tomba wrote: »

Reasons for my thoughts:

1) Market didn't break late April highs
2) Market is looking for more than $100b a month QE2 from bernanke... At this point it does not look likely he'll surprise
3) Market is looking for big republican win (more than 54 seats I think)
4) Mutual funds are sitting with ALL time low cash funds of 3.5%. if Market corrects they will have to dump shares big ... and very quickly. They cannot afford to hold on
5) Gut feeling

1 ) didnt break them yet
2 ) we wont know until the meeting
3 ) people are saying politics will derail the rally for a long time now, hasnt happened yet
4 ) more nonsense
5 ) you trade on gut feeling !! very silly

pirelli

We might have a GRIDLOCK ( Political ) causing market to decline.
We just had 100 billion more than expected FED stimulus.

Short Term -
Long Term -

I still would like to see a correction. I would like to see another oppourtunity for people to get in the market.

mickman

pirelli wrote: »

We might have a GRIDLOCK ( Political ) causing market to decline.
We just had 100 billion more than expected FED stimulus.

Short Term -
Long Term -

I still would like to see a correction. I would like to see another oppourtunity for people to get in the market.

my opinion is that this market is heading one way - up

pirelli

mickman wrote: »

my opinion is that this market is heading one way - up

There are sectors that are still relatively cheap.

We still have shipping. This is dirt cheap DSX ( Diana Shipping) is one of the finer choices.

We still have finance- JPM is looking very good. Republicans will certainly at the very least delay the changes Obama goverment were introducing.

We have airlines and mines and many other stocks that have not moved.

Mobile phones are still touching bottom.

Anyone else with any ideas?

mickman

pirelli wrote: »

There are sectors that are still relatively cheap.

We still have shipping. This is dirt cheap DSX ( Diana Shipping) is one of the finer choices.

We still have finance- JPM is looking very good. Republicans will certainly at the very least delay the changes Obama goverment were introducing.

We have airlines and mines and many other stocks that have not moved.

Mobile phones are still touching bottom.

Anyone else with any ideas?

why would you chase industry groups that are lagging, there is no guarantee at all that they will play catch up, they are lagging for a reason. financials would be the only interesting one as they rallied yesterday on the fed news

i much prefer to pick leading stocks in leading groups that are building good bases e.g. crm, vmw,

strmin

mickman wrote: »

why would you chase industry groups that are lagging, there is no guarantee at all that they will play catch up, they are lagging for a reason. financials would be the only interesting one as they rallied yesterday on the fed news

i much prefer to pick leading stocks in leading groups that are building good bases e.g. crm, vmw,

crm P/E - 205
vmw P/E - 110

What am I missing here? I see it as cloud computing bubble. Reminds me of .com
One even average quarter and these stocks down by 50%.

mickman

strmin wrote: »

crm P/E - 205
vmw P/E - 110

What am I missing here? I see it as cloud computing bubble. Reminds me of .com
One even average quarter and these stocks down by 50%.

do you not reliase the fortunes that were made during the .com bubble by people that had proper stops in place? huge ammounts of money.

its in bubbles that the real money is made , just like oil when it went to 140.

if you want a lower P/e check out FFIV - these babies are going much higher from here

mickman

Tomba wrote: »

Reasons for my thoughts:

1) Market didn't break late April highs
2) Market is looking for more than $100b a month QE2 from bernanke... At this point it does not look likely he'll surprise
3) Market is looking for big republican win (more than 54 seats I think)
4) Mutual funds are sitting with ALL time low cash funds of 3.5%. if Market corrects they will have to dump shares big ... and very quickly. They cannot afford to hold on
5) Gut feeling

dow and nasdaq now at new highs for the year. looks like your gut feeling was wrong :-(

pirelli

mickman wrote: »

dow and nasdaq now at new highs for the year. looks like your gut feeling was wrong :-(

Well you cannot fight the FED otherwise he would probably be right.

I bought JPM mickman. Financials are looking good. MAde a smart profit. Very proud of my work this week.

pirelli

pirelli wrote: »

Well you cannot fight the FED otherwise he would probably be right.

I bought JPM mickman. Financials are looking good. MAde a smart profit. Very proud of my work this week.

Dow and S&P struggling to green, JPM still moving very fast. This will be my triumph for the month.

mickman

pirelli wrote: »

Dow and S&P struggling to green, JPM still moving very fast. This will be my triumph for the month.

how many shares did you buy ?

pirelli

mickman wrote: »

how many shares did you buy ?

In and around $5000, not as much as i would like. Nice profit. Seems the financials were the Third quarter runners but more than likely this having to do with the Republicans taking senate.

pirelli

Here is a very interesting chart about how the FED tried to desperately save the market from falling during the crisis.

Bob Prechter :
"When markets go up, the Fed seems to be in control; when they go down, it seems out of control. But the control aspect is an illusion."




The origional link with clearer chart.

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=mw

mickman

gold and in particular silvers action today looks very very very toppy indeed. im not saying its a permanent top but very possibly an interim. Add to that bullishness has increased to the same levels that it was in april and the dollar is over due a large bounce , id back away from all longs here

pirelli

mickman wrote: »

gold and in particular silvers action today looks very very very toppy indeed. im not saying its a permanent top but very possibly an interim. Add to that bullishness has increased to the same levels that it was in april and the dollar is over due a large bounce , id back away from all longs here

I hope it plays that way... I am not looking forward to trading in this volatility. I need an obvious direction.

ixus

CME increased the Silver Margin on futures by 30%.

That has been a decent sell off in gold/silver after hours when it looked all day like the only way was up.

Tomba

I still stand by my call.

Earnings are nearly over, there is strong dollar buying, there will be little news for the next few weeks.

I don't plan on returning to the market until Mid December

mickman

Tomba wrote: »

I still stand by my call.

Earnings are nearly over, there is strong dollar buying, there will be little news for the next few weeks.

I don't plan on returning to the market until Mid December

while i still think trading on your "gut" feeling is crazy and the markets did break their april highs i am inclined to agree that a correction is imminent

mickman

irelands 10 year is at 8.9 this morning and rising rapidly. greeces went to 9 before they collapsed

tommylimerick

am i right in saying that the ask price was 8.8
but there was no bid on it . so no transaction
i think this is what david mcwilliams said yesterday
and when the goverment goes to the market
again to raise capital they will have to pay 10+
on bonds to secure capital

pirelli

tommylimerick wrote: »

am i right in saying that the ask price was 8.8
but there was no bid on it . so no transaction
i think this is what david mcwilliams said yesterday
and when the goverment goes to the market
again to raise capital they will have to pay 10+
on bonds to secure capital

Does anyone recall the Lions 66 billion pounds in we had in 1999/2000. Where has this money gone to.

Bullish

I think its in some nice detatched 4 beds in cavan

How goes it pirelli

pirelli

Bullish wrote: »

I think its in some nice detatched 4 beds in cavan

How goes it pirelli

Hi bullish

Is that where it is!

pirelli

pirelli wrote: »

There are sectors that are still relatively cheap.

We still have shipping. This is dirt cheap DSX ( Diana Shipping) is one of the finer choices.

We still have finance- JPM is looking very good. Republicans will certainly at the very least delay the changes Obama goverment were introducing.

We have airlines and mines and many other stocks that have not moved.

Mobile phones are still touching bottom.

Anyone else with any ideas?

Shipping is moving. GNK DRYS ..Also look at URA a nice uranium ETF has just bottomed, yes bottomed.


I'm back in JPM as of yesterday. I should have got into IRE. That might very well move hard today. Nice Green day

mickman

pirelli wrote: »

Shipping is moving. GNK DRYS ..Also look at URA a nice uranium ETF has just bottomed, yes bottomed.


I'm back in JPM as of yesterday. I should have got into IRE. That might very well move hard today. Nice Green day

pirelli - you should be careful with going around saying things have bottomed. no one knows if they have or not

pirelli

mickman wrote: »

pirelli - you should be careful with going around saying things have bottomed. no one knows if they have or not

Your being overly cautious mickman. It is unique in that it is a new Uranium/nuclear ETF. It has run down since been introduced. While there may be lower lows in the future, this is a safe entry point to try catch a secure stop on.

I wish the market maker would be more careful with my money. :mad:

mickman

It has been run down for a reason

ixus

pirelli wrote: »

n.

I wish the market maker would be more careful with my money. :mad:

Could you please elaborate? My initial response is, it's your own feckin responsibility to be careful with your money but, maybe I'm misinterpreting the quote. Are you looking for a working order or do you say you want to buy at market?

pirelli

ixus wrote: »

Could you please elaborate? My initial response is, it's your own feckin responsibility to be careful with your money but, maybe I'm misinterpreting the quote. Are you looking for a working order or do you say you want to buy at market?

Always bounces off my stop loss. Always. To a fraction of a penny. I have several trades now where my stop loss personifies the technical lows of the entire chart. That has to be the MM, they can see my stop loss and they always run them out before climbing.

Your right it is my own feckin fault, im just bitter because i have been so lucky lately and then yesterday i took a gamble on JPM and well it dumped me at 39.36 today so yes i feel bitter, no left behind because i was in the green and i knew it was going to explode later in the day.

Today was such a good day..it was my fault and i feel so stupid.

ixus

Pirelli, and everyone else, if you're trading a stock that is very liquid you run the risk of having your stop loss triggered very easily. This is why I am so risk adverse to spread betting currencies or commodities like oil,gold etc. There are algos designed to just hunt for stops, especially against technical traders. If you see a level, you can be guaranteed that everyone else does too.

Tomba

Options expiry tomorrow; dead cat bounce today or last hour of trading tomorrow a good buy point? You choose!

Must admit tho; I bought yesterday.... Chinese solar is oversold

pirelli

Tomba wrote: »

Options expiry tomorrow; dead cat bounce today or last hour of trading tomorrow a good buy point? You choose!

Must admit tho; I bought yesterday.... Chinese solar is oversold

Yes! TSL and the mores solid ones perhaps. TSL had a nice swing from $22.66 to over $23. I would be cautious and solar is no longer the golden child according to credit suisse who have claimed oversupply and the sector underweight . I am second guessing this is just a bounce and we have more of a correction ahead.

Jpm warned of china casuing a couple of very steep drops in oil prices.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) on Possible China Interest Rate Increase


JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) said recently if China does in fact increase their interest rate it would cause an immediate drop in oil prices.

But the financial giant said it should be considered a buying opportunity for the long term, although in the short term the drop in price could be dramatic.

This is something anyone investing in commodities in general should keep in mind as well.

Many raw materials and metals will probably experience significant downward pressure almost right away, but once the smoke clears, China is still going to acquire many commodities to fuel its growth, even if they attempt to slow it down some.

For most commodities, including gold, it should be considered a buying opportunity if and when it happens.

JPMorgan said, “We continue to emphasize that any price drop in crude, similar to Friday’s, is an opportunity to buy.” Extend that to most commodities and many investors should find good entry or re-entry points


http://everythinggold.blogspot.com/2010/11/jpmorgan-nysejpm-on-possible-china.html

pirelli

ixus wrote: »

Pirelli, and everyone else, if you're trading a stock that is very liquid you run the risk of having your stop loss triggered very easily. This is why I am so risk adverse to spread betting currencies or commodities like oil,gold etc. There are algos designed to just hunt for stops, especially against technical traders. If you see a level, you can be guaranteed that everyone else does too.

Thanks IXUS. I will have to play the traditional approach .

mickman

Tomba wrote: »

Options expiry tomorrow; dead cat bounce today or last hour of trading tomorrow a good buy point? You choose!

Must admit tho; I bought yesterday.... Chinese solar is oversold

i have a very small short position on the market but will change if the indicators i follow give me the signal. its impossible to know where the market is headed at present but in my humble opinion the line of least resistance is down at the moment. everyone got very bullish last week (as bullish as april actually) and we need a few people shaken out

What ixus said about stops being easy to spot etc, he is dead right. you will very very often see moves down to just under the 50 day MA for example. most peoples stops will be hit and then the stock will move back up again after most people get shaken out. you have to be smart with your stops or else dont use them at what you think are logical spots i.e. 50 day, 200 day etc

pirelli

mickman wrote: »

i have a very small short position on the market but will change if the indicators i follow give me the signal. its impossible to know where the market is headed at present but in my humble opinion the line of least resistance is down at the moment. everyone got very bullish last week (as bullish as april actually) and we need a few people shaken out

What ixus said about stops being easy to spot etc, he is dead right. you will very very often see moves down to just under the 50 day MA for example. most peoples stops will be hit and then the stock will move back up again after most people get shaken out. you have to be smart with your stops or else dont use them at what you think are logical spots i.e. 50 day, 200 day etc

Yep! China tightning and uncertainty in europe. We are opening Red today in USA.