EPL / CL / La Liga & Bundesliga Betting Log

gnolan

I've decided to start up a betting log; the main reason being to drill some discipline into myself. I'll be betting on the above leagues, primarily Premier League football. I don't like betting on leagues i know nothing about so thats why it will mostly be Premier League.

In this log i will also be including Pyro's horse bets, not the lays as i don't have the bankroll. As well as this I'll include Archimedes' NFL bets because i enjoy watching NFL (and he seems to know what he's doing!).

I plan on sticking to a points system of 1-5 but the first bet i'm going for is a €5 accumulator. For the sake of this log i'm going to call it 5 points.

I will try to give some reasoning for each bet but theres not much reasoning for the following. In fact West Brom are looking particularly strong at the moment, Birmingham are no pushovers, Chelsea are missing Alex and Drogba and Emile Heskey is on a good run of form (never thought i'd say that).

4-Fold - 5pts @ 4.28

1 16/10/2010 Man Utd v West Brom
2 16/10/2010 Arsenal v Birmingham
3 16/10/2010 Aston Villa v Chelsea
4 15/10/2010 Cologne v Borussia Dortmund

---

Another one i'm going for is Bolton vs Stoke. Bolton are on a fairly awful run of form at the moment with Stoke the opposite. Stoke have won 4 of their last 5, and Bolton have won 0 of their last 5 including 2 losses. I'm hoping Kevin Davies won't be fit for tomorrow and hoping that Sorenson will be ok after a hip injury.

I'm a little worried that Stoke's winning form will come to an abrupt end tomorrow. I want to take Stoke at a great value 5/2, but i'll play safe and go for Stoke DNB @ 11/8.

Stoke DNB - 2 pts @ 11/8

---

Archimedes' Football Bets - 10.75pts

Hope you don't mind me putting this in my log, just want to keep track of all bets i'm placing...

---

Pyro's horse bets - 5.5pts

Same goes for yourself Pyro....

---

Stake: 23.25pts
Cumulative P/L: -23.25pts

rossit

best of luck nice start hope it goes on for yeah

gnolan

4-Fold - 5pts @ 4.28

1 16/10/2010 Man Utd v West Brom
2 16/10/2010 Arsenal v Birmingham
3 16/10/2010 Aston Villa v Chelsea
4 15/10/2010 Cologne v Borussia Dortmund

Return - 0pts
Utd give away a two goal lead to draw 2-2

gnolan wrote: »

Stoke DNB - 2 pts @ 11/8

Return - 0pts
Last minute winner from Bolton

Pyro's horse bets - 5.5pts

Return - 16.5pts
Ha! Deadly!

---

Villa vs Chelsea
Florent Malouda to score first 21-45 - 0.5pts @ 16/1

---

Villa vs Chelsea
Villa DNB in play at half-time - 1.5pts @ 12.5

---

Bad day from my own betting perspective, dulled somewhat by Pyro's good day.

Staked - 25.25pts
In play - 12.75pts
Return - 16.5pts
Cumulative P/L - -8.75pts

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

Villa vs Chelsea
Florent Malouda to score first 21-45 - 0.5pts @ 16/1

Return - 0pts

Villa vs Chelsea
Villa DNB in play at half-time - 1.5pts @ 12.5

Return - 1.5pts

---

I think i will leave these two following bets as the last of the weekend. It will no doubt take some time to get into a decent stride but hopefully not too long.

Everton vs Liverpool
Was planning on staying away from this one originally but i think there's some value to be found. Both teams are on a terrible run at the moment and both will see this game as the perfect opportunity to knock themselves out of the daze they're currently in. There have been two huge boosts for Liverpool this week and one devastating and crushing disappointment; the latter being the contract extension of Jamie Carragher. Aside from this, the club has been sold and it looks like Torres has been declared fit for tomorrow afternoon. Dirk Kuyt is out and its hard to know how the midfield will be set out tomorrow, with the worst case scenario for Liverpool being a partnership of Poulsen and Lucas. Its no great wonder that Liverpool are in the plight that they are, considering that partnership, the poor backup for Torres, the lack of a consistently solid CB partnership, and the chopping and changing at left back. Along with this we have Johnson, who had been looking so good, underperforming hugely (or performing to his below par capabilities some might say). HOWEVER, I am thinking that the positive news off the pitch and the presence of Torres in the starting lineup will be enough for Liverpool to scrape a win by 1 goal. These games are often hard to call, hence throwing some caution to the wind and being selective about what factors to include in deciding upon a selection. Also, lets hope for a dirty game!

---

Liverpool @ 15/8 - 1.5pts

Over 6.5 cards @ 11/10 - 2pts

---

As it stands:

In play: 14.25pts
Cumulative P/L: -10.75

gnolan

Blackpool vs Man City

Man City and Over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 - 2pts

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

Liverpool @ 15/8 - 1.5pts

Over 6.5 cards @ 11/10 - 2pts

Return - 0

gnolan wrote: »

Blackpool vs Man City

Man City and Over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 - 2pts

Return - 4.5pts

Some consolation for several crappy selections on my part


Week 1:

My selections:
Stake: 14.5pts
Return: 6pts
P/L: -8.5pts

Pyro's selections:
Stake: 6.5pts
Return: 19pts
P/L: 12.5pts

Archimedes' selections:
Stake: 6.25pts
Return: 8.72pts
P/L: 2.47pts

Week 1 P/L: +6.47pts

8-10

gnolan wrote: »

Blackpool vs Man City

Man City and Over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 - 2pts

Nice one. Always tough getting these things started, keep it up!

gnolan

8-10 wrote: »

Nice one. Always tough getting these things started, keep it up!

Thanks. Hopefully i can start coming out with some profit from my own selections, but you're right, it'll take some time.

gnolan

So, two early bets for two of tomorrows Champions League games. There may be more to follow after team news.

Spartak Moscow vs Chelsea

Either side not to score @ 5/6 - 1.5pts

---

Arsenal vs Shaktar

Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 - 2.5pts

gnolan

Blackburn vs Sunderland

Both sides to score @ 19/20 - 1.5pts

gnolan

Blackburn vs Sunderland

In play: Over 4.5 cards @ 8/11 - 1.5pts

gnolan

Hercules vs Villareal

In play: Villareal or Draw @ 8/11 - 1.5pts

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

Blackburn vs Sunderland

Both sides to score @ 19/20 - 1.5pts

LOST Return : 0pts

gnolan wrote: »

Blackburn vs Sunderland

In play: Over 4.5 cards @ 8/11 - 1.5pts

WON Return : 2.59pts

gnolan wrote: »

Hercules vs Villareal

In play: Villareal or Draw @ 8/11 - 1.5pts

WON Return : 2.59pts

Today's P/L : +0.6pts

gnolan

Titans @ Jaguars

Over 43.5 points @ 10/11 - 2pts

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

Titans @ Jaguars

Over 43.5 points @ 10/11 - 2pts

LOST - Return : 0pts


Three more bets for tonight:

---

Bayern vs Cluj

CFR Cluj (+2) @ 20/21 - 1.5pts

---

Roma vs Basel

Francesco Totti first goalscorer @ 9/2 - 1pt EW

---

Real Madrid vs AC Milan

HT-FT : Draw - Real Madrid @ 3/1 - 0.75pts

gnolan

Last one:

Arsenal & Over 2.5 goals
Roma to win
Double @ 2.61/1 - 1.5pts

gnolan

Results:

Spartak Moscow vs Chelsea

Either side not to score @ 5/6 - 1.

WON

---

Arsenal vs Shaktar

Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 - 2.5pts

WON

gnolan wrote: »

Bayern vs Cluj

CFR Cluj (+2) @ 20/21 - 1.5pts

WON

---

Roma vs Basel

Francesco Totti first goalscorer @ 9/2 - 1pt EW

LOST

---

Real Madrid vs AC Milan

HT-FT : Draw - Real Madrid @ 3/1 - 0.75pts

LOST

gnolan wrote: »

Last one:

Arsenal & Over 2.5 goals
Roma to win
Double @ 2.61/1 - 1.5pts

LOST

Today's P/L : -1.5pts

Pretty pissed off with that i have to say, Roma let me down big time, would be looking at a nice profit otherwise

gnolan

Man United vs Bursaspor

Man United -1 @ 4/6 - 5pts

---

Treble

Man United -1, Schalke to win, Over 2.5 goals Barcelona vs Copenhagen @ 2.37/1 - 1pt

---

gnolan

Inter Milan vs Spurs

Anytime goalscorer - Eto'o @ 20/21 - 2pts

---

To score two or more goals - Eto'o @ 9/2 - 0.5pt

---

gnolan

Schalke vs Hapoel

Anytime goalscorer - Huntelaar @ 5/6 - 1.5pts

gnolan

Resulys:

gnolan wrote: »

Man United vs Bursaspor

Man United -1 @ 4/6 - 5pts


C**NTY F**KIN C*UNTS, USELESS

---

Treble

Man United -1, Schalke to win, Over 2.5 goals Barcelona vs Copenhagen @ 2.37/1 - 1pt

LOST

---

gnolan wrote: »

Inter Milan vs Spurs

Anytime goalscorer - Eto'o @ 20/21 - 2pts

WON

---

To score two or more goals - Eto'o @ 9/2 - 0.5pt

WON

---

gnolan wrote: »

Schalke vs Hapoel

Anytime goalscorer - Huntelaar @ 5/6 - 1.5pts

LOST

I feel sick. ****ing united ****ing hairy ballsacks!

Today's P/L: -3.35pts

gnolan

Europa League Treble

Atletico, Man City, Dortmund @ 1.71/1 - 2pts

gnolan

Dortmund vs PSG

Anytime GS - Shinji Kagawa @ 11/5 - 1pt

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

Europa League Treble

Atletico, Man City, Dortmund @ 1.71/1 - 2pts

LOST

gnolan wrote: »

Dortmund vs PSG

Anytime GS - Shinji Kagawa @ 11/5 - 1pt

LOST

The word you're looking for is clusterfuck!

Today's P/L = -3pts

Guess i'll go look at the weekend fixtures, time to start lumping on me thinks. To console myself, i'm gonna say that i've been unlucky so far.

gnolan

Saturday's Premier League

Chelsea to win to nil @ 8/11 - 2.5pts
Chelsea to score in both halves @ 1/2 - 4pts
Over 2.5 goals - Birmingham vs Blackpool @ 3/4 - 2pts
Everton to win vs Spurs @ 11/4 - 1pt

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

Saturday's Premier League

Chelsea to win to nil @ 8/11 - 2.5pts WON
Chelsea to score in both halves @ 1/2 - 4pts WON
Over 2.5 goals - Birmingham vs Blackpool @ 3/4 - 2pts LOST
Everton to win vs Spurs @ 11/4 - 1pt LOST

Beginning to think that i'm not very good at this. Tiny profit today. Think i may have to reconsider how i place my bets with respect to the size of the stake.

Today's P/L: +0.83pts

Thank god for Pyro and his horses

x PyRo

Chin up mate, Rome wasn't built in a day. The football is tough to call at the moment and any day with profit is a damn good one! Keep the faith and it'll pay off.

Thanks for the mention too. :pac:

gnolan

Thanks for that Pyro. Great day for yourself, and consequently for me!

It's funny, my own bets have been pretty crap so far, yet i'll probably have another week of small profit thanks to yourself. Makes me wonder why i bother putting on my own bets!

x PyRo

I'm happy with it anyways, pity the my max max bet was awful! Can't get them all though.

It's no fun if you don't select your own selections and it's the only way to learn too, I certainly wouldn't stop doing it or it'll make the gambling less fun for you. Perfection takes time and if you keep posting your own stuff you'll be so surprised what you'll learn, I've learnt a hell of a lot and I still am learning. Long may it continue.

gnolan

Sunday's Premier League

Treble
Stoke or Draw
Blackburn or Draw
Man City to win

@ 10.55 - 0.5pt

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

Sunday's Premier League

Treble
Stoke or Draw
Blackburn or Draw
Man City to win

@ 10.55 - 0.5pt

LOST

Aftertiming!* Sorry, first time in this log. Was out watching the game and put the bet on on the mobile after the sending off.

Arsenal to beat Man City (In play) @ 4/5 - 2.5pts

WON

Today's P/L: +1.5pts


*screenshot attached

gnolan

Week 2:

My selections:
P/L: -4.92pts

Pyro's selections:
P/L: +6.63pts

Archimedes' selections:
P/L: +12.96pts

Week 1 P/L: +6.47pts
Week 2 P/L: +14.67pts
Total: +21.14pts

Great stuff from the lads again! Not so good from myself; yet to register a week of profit from my own selections, all in good time perhaps.

gnolan

Double

Orebro SK
Real Sociedad

@ 1.82/1 - 1.5pts

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

Double

Orebro SK
Real Sociedad

@ 1.82/1 - 1.5pts

LOST

Today's P/L: -1.5pts

gnolan

Midweek Cup games

Treble

Real Madrid AH (-1.5)
Man United to win
Birmingham to win

@ 2.08 - 1.5pts

I haven't been giving much (if any) reasoning as I've found it to be hugely time consuming but, nonetheless, here is a very short write-up.

Surprised to see the strength of the team that Real are putting out tonight, but what would worry me is whether the players will take this fixture seriously or not. I'm hoping Benzema might see this game as a good opportunity to get his season going and hopefully the others coming in will want to show their worth. The reason for the Asian Handicap is that Bet365 had no handicap market up when betting. Other bets i was thinking about here were Real HT/FT, but decided against it; this could be one those games where Muria nick the first goal and get dominated by Real in the second half.

Wolves have been underperforming all season and i don't expect that to change tomorrow night. Thats not to say that Man Utd have been having a great time of it, but that win at the weekend will do a lot for their confidence, and certainly that of Hernandez, who i wouldn't be surprised to see partner Berbatov up front.

Birmingham have hit a bit of **** patch over the last few weeks, but the game against Blackpool at the weekend earned them a valuable home win, with teams like Arsenal and Liverpool failing to get any points from the same fixture. I would expect a strong lineup from Birmingham at the weekend as they may see this as their only realistic chance of silverware. That in itself should be enough to see off League One opposition, and in reality they should probably put 3 goals past them.

gnolan

^^^^LOST

Gotta stupid accumulator on for tonight, can't see it happening

Celtic
Rangers
Valencia
Over 2.5 (Villa Burnley)
Over 2.5 (Newcastle Arsenal)
Over 1.5 (West Ham Stoke)

@9.1/1 - 1pt

gnolan

Double

Aston Villa
Rangers

@ 1.21/1 - 5pts

gnolan

In play (Ajax 1 - 1 Heerenveen)

Ajax -1, -1.5 @ 1.975 - 4pts

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

^^^^LOST

Gotta stupid accumulator on for tonight, can't see it happening

Celtic
Rangers
Valencia
Over 2.5 (Villa Burnley)
Over 2.5 (Newcastle Arsenal)
Over 1.5 (West Ham Stoke)

@9.1/1 - 1pt

gnolan wrote: »

Double

Aston Villa
Rangers

@ 1.21/1 - 5pts

gnolan wrote: »

In play (Ajax 1 - 1 Heerenveen)

Ajax -1, -1.5 @ 1.975 - 4pts

LOST

LOST

WON

Villa are pack of useless bellends!

Today's P/L : -2.1pts

gnolan

Weekend football

Have very much set my stall out for the weekend. I don't really like placing selections this early on but i felt a bit restless after last nights Carling Cup football, so here they are.

Double
Chelsea
Arsenal -1.0,-1.5
@ 1.02/1 - 5pts

---

Double
Man City
Everton
@ 1.62/1 - 2.5pts

---

Treble
Valencia
Real Madrid
Barcelona
@ 1.41/1 - 2.5pts

---

Spurs to beat Man United
@ 5/1 - 0.5pts

---

Birmingham to beat Villa
@ 4/1 - 0.5pts

---

Double
Birmingham
Spurs
@ 29 - 0.5pts

---

Total staked: 11.5pts

gnolan

Ridiculous in-play bet:

Treble:
Dunajska Streda U19 @ 4/6
Opava Youth @ 4/6
FK Senica U19 @ 4/9

@ 3.01/1 - 1.5pts


....i don't know why

gnolan

Friday night:

Genoa vs Inter - Under 2.5 goals
Bayern vs Freiburg - Both sides to score

@ 2.57/1 - 2pts

gnolan

gnolan wrote: »

Weekend football

Have very much set my stall out for the weekend. I don't really like placing selections this early on but i felt a bit restless after last nights Carling Cup football, so here they are.

Double
Chelsea
Arsenal -1.0,-1.5
@ 1.02/1 - 5pts

LOSTISH

Returned around 3.5pts, will do totals at the end of the week

---

Double
Man City
Everton
@ 1.62/1 - 2.5pts


LOST

---

Treble
Valencia
Real Madrid
Barcelona
@ 1.41/1 - 2.5pts


LOST

---

Spurs to beat Man United
@ 5/1 - 0.5pts


LOST

---

Birmingham to beat Villa
@ 4/1 - 0.5pts

LOST

---

Double
Birmingham
Spurs
@ 29 - 0.5pts

LOST

---

Total staked: 11.5pts

gnolan wrote: »

Ridiculous in-play bet:

Treble:
Dunajska Streda U19 @ 4/6
Opava Youth @ 4/6
FK Senica U19 @ 4/9

@ 3.01/1 - 1.5pts


....i don't know why

LOST

gnolan wrote: »

Friday night:

Genoa vs Inter - Under 2.5 goals
Bayern vs Freiburg - Both sides to score

@ 2.57/1 - 2pts

WON!!

Prefer not to think too much about what just happened.

Treble
Dortmund
Both sides to score (Bolton vs Liverpool)
Over 2.5 (Malaga Sociedad)

@ 7.8/1 - 2.5pts

gnolan

Bad week:

Week 2:

My selections:
P/L: -11.8pts

Pyro's selections:
P/L: -1pt

Archimedes' selections:
P/L: -6.9pts

Week 1 P/L: +6.47pts
Week 2 P/L: +14.67pts
Week 3 P/L: - 19.72
Total: +1.42pts

gnolan

Double

Over 2.5 (Blackpool vs West Brom)
Mallorca to win vs Levante

@ 1.74/1 - 2.5pts

Hopefully this will be a better start to this week. I can see plenty of goals in the Blackpool game, in fact i think the 7/10 is pretty good value given the attacking play shown by each team this season. Wanted to go for a winner as well; was leaning towards West Brom given some of the big results they've had of late, and given the slight slide that Blackpool have taken, and the fact that their home form isn't the best. Decided against it in the end, confident enough with the overs here.

The Mallorca game I had a bit more trouble with. No real market stands out for me. Both teams are somewhat erratic with their goalscoring hence staying from the over/unders markets. Levante's away from this season includes two losses, a draw and a good 1-0 win over Almeria. I think Mallorca will have enough for them tonight, looking to bounce back from their narrow home defeat to Espanyol. Here's hoping.

Also decided to follow Coughlan's bets for the week to see how he fairs. Really need to get my own **** together though.

gnolan

Blackpool vs West Brom

West Brom and over 2.5
@ 12/5 - 2pts

---

Correct Score
Blackpool 2 - 3 West Brom
@ 22/1 - 0.5pts

The last two games between these two has ended 3-2 to West Brom, third time lucky

Peyton Manning

Hey man, I thought you said my picks did well for you?

gnolan

Archimedes wrote: »

Hey man, I thought you said my picks did well for you?

Well last night's did, i never got a chance to get on the selections you threw up when you were chasing after the blip in midweek selections. No big deal anyway, i need to start relying on my own selections, which to date have been absolutely awful.

gnolan

Blackpool vs West Brom (in play)

Over 3.5 goals @ 11/10 - 10pts

gnolan

**** you Blackpool, **** you. Missed so many sitters at the end.

If my following bet doesn't come through this log is done and dusted.

Texans @ Colts

Peyton Manning over 305.5 yds
@ 5/7 - 17.05pts

gnolan

So Manning is just gonna need around 210 yards in the 2nd half. Gayyyyyy