Economy has turned the corner - Dtandard & Poor

Tora Bora

Of course this will be like a red rag to a bull to the pathological pessimists who pollute this forum

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-has-turned-corner-says-top-rating-agency-boss-2376296.html

Economy has 'turned corner' says top rating agency boss


By Thomas Molloy, Michael Brennan and Fionnan Sheahan

Wednesday October 13 2010

THE economy will recover more quickly than several other European countries and has 'turned a corner', world financial experts claimed last night.
A key global credit rating agency offered one of the most optimistic assessments to date of our prospects.
But the chances of consensus emerging among political parties on Budget measures needed over the next four years remained slim after an unenthusiastic intervention by Taoiseach Brian Cowen.
Other foreign economists also agreed with the agency's assessment, saying the Irish economy had "turned a corner".
At the same time, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan is grappling with the prospect of generating up to €4.5bn in tax increases and spending cuts in the forthcoming Budget.
The Standard & Poor's credit rating agency, which has consistently given Ireland negative economic outlooks, provided a distinctly upbeat assessment of our prospects yesterday.
Its chief economist, David Beers, made the comments in Washington. He said concerns about fiscal and political risks to the country were exaggerated. And he forecast that the economy would recover faster than other peripheral European countries.
Mr Beers said: "Ireland's competitiveness is improving because the labour market is flexible; they're cutting wages and salaries. So we think that among the peripheral countries it would be the first to begin to recover.
"People think that the Irish political establishment may be suffering from exhaustion, reform fatigue. We actually do not detect that," he added.
He was speaking in Washington in the course of meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank attended by many of the world's financial leaders.
He said there could be more bad news in the banking sector, but downplayed market fears that the Government could be losing the willingness to proceed with economic reforms or to keep fiscal discipline.
Mr Beers said the Irish economy was likely to recover faster than other weak eurozone countries such as Portugal, Spain and Greece because it had a more flexible private sector, and foreign direct investment kept flowing into the country.

FRAGILE
After his comments, Gillian Edgeworth, an economist at Italian bank UniCredit, which often comments on the Irish economy, said she believed the Irish economy had "turned a corner" although it remained "fragile" as the Government struggled to push down the country's budget deficit.
Meanwhile, the prospects of cross-party Budget talks, as proposed by Green Party leader John Gormley, are still remote.
Giving his second cool reaction to his junior coalition partner's idea, Mr Cowen ruled out "tying himself" into the process.

Opposition
His comments had been awaited by the opposition parties, who wanted to find out whether he was serious about giving them a real role in drawing up plans to rescue the public finances over the next four years.
Although Mr Cowen expressed a willingness to meet the opposition party leaders, he warned that the Government had a responsibility to produce its own four-year budgetary plan.
"I'm not tying you into a process that you may have reservations about, or I’m not tying myself into a process that suggests that we all end up with some arrangement where bits of everyone’s proposals can be considered.
That wouldn’t meet the requirements of the situation," he said.
- Thomas Molloy, Michael Brenna

ei.sdraob

90 billion is not an issue anymore so...

Saadyst

Tora Bora wrote: »

Mr Beers said: "Ireland's competitiveness is improving because the labour market is flexible; they're cutting wages and salaries. So we think that among the peripheral countries it would be the first to begin to recover.
"People think that the Irish political establishment may be suffering from exhaustion, reform fatigue. We actually do not detect that," he added.

He said there could be more bad news in the banking sector, but downplayed market fears that the Government could be losing the willingness to proceed with economic reforms or to keep fiscal discipline.

I don't really understand this. Public sector salaries will more or less remain the same due to the agreements in place, until 2014? HSE takes up 1/3rd of the entire budget (iirc) and there seems to be little to no effort to clear up wastage... and I'm not hearing of any reform or commitments of actual regulation in the financial sector..?

Mr Benevolent

I don't believe that for a second. Wait till we get back into the bond markets. Actually the whole thing sounds like a paid advertisement.

BluePlanet

Well im sure things seem rosy from some people's eyes.

Afterall, the government has shown a willingness to scarifice the welfare of people of Ireland before disappointing the international money markets.

So that's great news, if you're in that particular camp.

P. Breathnach

This forum thrives on doom and gloom. Anything that is a little less negative doesn't get past the gatekeepers without being re-interpreted so that it fits with their worldview.

Tora Bora

P. Breathnach wrote: »

This forum thrives on doom and gloom. Anything that is a little less negative doesn't get past the gatekeepers without being re-interpreted so that it fits with their worldview.

Exactly ............ as I said in my introduction to the original post.

Standard and Poor, have been quite negative on the Irish economy over the past two years.

Nijmegen

The economy may turn the corner faster, but that doesn't bridge the €24bn gap between current spending and tax receipts, nor will it lift nearly half a million people back into the workforce.

It's a positive note, but our current problems remain.

tara73

P. Breathnach wrote: »

This forum thrives on doom and gloom. Anything that is a little less negative doesn't get past the gatekeepers without being re-interpreted so that it fits with their worldview.

I think mostly it thrives on reality, thank god. we don't need anymore bubble talk/lies to brainwash people/economical facts.

Saadyst

P. Breathnach wrote: »

This forum thrives on doom and gloom. Anything that is a little less negative doesn't get past the gatekeepers without being re-interpreted so that it fits with their worldview.

Can we see some actual evidence or reasoning to explain where this optimism should (or is) coming from?

That's all really. Not airy-fairy stuff, but some logic or math.

Amhran Nua

I'm still waiting to see these hundreds of thousands of jobs as promised, or even a remotely likely source for same. There's no such thing as a jobless recovery.

P. Breathnach

Saadyst wrote: »

Can we see some actual evidence or reasoning to explain where this optimism should (or is) coming from?

The piece quoted in the original post easily meets the language I used: "a little less negative". You are moving the goalposts.

But I am quite happy to affirm that I am of more optimistic disposition than those that I characterise as the gatekeepers here. Mind you, that's a low threshold, given how extreme is the pessimism that they project.

That's all really. Not airy-fairy stuff, but some logic or math.

The bond markets work on "airy-fairy stuff" like the judgements of the ratings agencies. If their opinion of our position changes for the better, the cost of our borrowings falls. That means real money.

podge3

Down with this sort of thing - optimism, that is :rolleyes:

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

P. Breathnach

Amhran Nua wrote: »

... There's no such thing as a jobless recovery.

Yes, there is. Google gives over 200,000 hits for the phrase, and they are not all denying that the phenomenon exists.

More to the point, there is a widely-recognised phenomenon of lag between the onset of recovery and growth in employment levels.

GSF

It was only yesterday that the government were telling us that these rating agencies know nothing. Today they are being hailed as foresighted geniuses. Make your mind up guys!

RichardAnd

Amhran Nua wrote: »

I'm still waiting to see these hundreds of thousands of jobs as promised, or even a remotely likely source for same. There's no such thing as a jobless recovery.

There will not be hundreds of thousands of jobs created as the hundreds of thousands of jobs lost were mostly boom jobs that never should have existed at all.

I don't think our recovery will be totally "jobless" but I also do not expect the days of getting a job in-spite of a total lack of ability, experience or even common sense to be back any time soon.

wiseguy

P. Breathnach wrote: »

This forum thrives on doom and gloom. Anything that is a little less negative doesn't get past the gatekeepers without being re-interpreted so that it fits with their worldview.

As an <ex_public_service> pensioner why would you be gloomy?
You won't be the one cleaning up this debt derived mess via your taxes and pensioners are untouchable when it comes to cuts. :pac:

Tipp Man

When we stop borrowing billions and billions of Euro annually to fund the excesses/waste of governement spending and get unemployment down to an acceptable level (through creating job and not emigration) then we can say we have turned a corner

Currently none of this has been done so no corner turned for me

P. Breathnach

wiseguy wrote: »

As an <ex_public_service> pensioner why would you be gloomy?
You won't be the one cleaning up this debt derived mess via your taxes and pensioners are untouchable when it comes to cuts. :pac:

It's inappropriate to bring my personal circumstances into a general discussion.

Now consider this: I care about people other than myself. That includes young and old; people in the private sector and the public sector and unemployed; rich and poor. My participation in political discussion is motivated by my wanting the best for everybody.

Tipp Man

P. Breathnach wrote: »

The piece quoted in the original post easily meets the language I used: "a little less negative". You are moving the goalposts.

But I am quite happy to affirm that I am of more optimistic disposition than those that I characterise as the gatekeepers here. Mind you, that's a low threshold, given how extreme is the pessimism that they project.



The bond markets work on "airy-fairy stuff" like the judgements of the ratings agencies. If their opinion of our position changes for the better, the cost of our borrowings falls. That means real money.

I wonder how much worse off you will be after the next budget compared to the "pessimists"

It's easy be optimistic when you're not the 1 paying for the mess we are in

HellsAngel

Tipp Man wrote: »

I wonder how much worse off you will be after the next budget compared to the "pessimists"

It's easy be optimistic when you're not the 1 paying for the mess we are in

I don't agree with Ahern much, but maybe you could take his advice about what people who are always moaning and cribbing should do with themselves ?

Scofflaw

Tipp Man, wiseguy - don't personalise the discussion. Having a go at other posters is not acceptable.

moderately,
Scofflaw

senordingdong

We've turned afew corners already.
I think we're back where we started.

Tipp Man

Scofflaw wrote: »

Tipp Man, wiseguy - don't personalise the discussion. Having a go at other posters is not acceptable.

moderately,
Scofflaw

ok noted

HellsAngel wrote: »

I don't agree with Ahern much, but maybe you could take his advice about what people who are always moaning and cribbing should do with themselves ?

Why don't you produce some evidence to suggest that this country has turned a corner and that we are better off than we were 3, 6, 9 months ago

Scarab80

Tipp Man wrote: »

Why don't you produce some evidence to suggest that this country has turned a corner and that we are better off than we were 3, 6, 9 months ago

Ripped from here

In the week when all of the banking costs were announced the following announcements were also made...

Friday 24 September:
CSO report merchandise exports up 12.1% in July over July 2009 and the merchandise trade surplus at an all-time high 0f 4,421.7 million euros.



Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that the seasonally-adjusted number on the live register fell by 5,400 in September.


Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that milk output was up by 12% in August as compared with August 2009.


Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that agricultural prices were up by 10.9% in July as compared with July 2009, while input prices were down 1.4%, giving an unprecedented increase in agricultural terms of trade of 12.4% in July, as compared with July 2009.


Friday 1 October:
CSO report that the volume of retail sales was up 1.3% in August, as compared with August 2009.


Friday 1 October:
SIMI report that new car sales in August were 93.8% higher than in August 2009.


Sunday 3 October:
Media leaks that CSO figures to be published in a few weeks will show a big rebound in the number of foreign tourists in Q3, up 15% seasonally-adjusted as compared with Q1 and Q2.


Monday 4 October:
Department of Employment report that the number of redundancies in September were at the lowest since 2007, down 29.6% as compared with August 2009, and little more than half their peak in early 2009.


Monday 4 October:
Department of Finance report best exchequer returns since 2007. Tax receipts up 11.4% in September as compared with September 2009. Tax receipts above target (profile) for the third consecutive month, again the first time this has happened since 2007. The amount by which tax receipts are short of target (profile) has fallen from 1.6% in June, to 1.4% in July, to 0.7% in August, to 0.2% in September.


Tueday 5 October:
Department of Social Welfare report that, for the second month running, the number of PPSNs issued to foreign nationals in September was up on a year ago, 14.1% higher than in September 2009.

Amhran Nua

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Yes, there is. Google gives over 200,000 hits for the phrase, and they are not all denying that the phenomenon exists.

How many hits do you get for UFOs?

P. Breathnach wrote: »

More to the point, there is a widely-recognised phenomenon of lag between the onset of recovery and growth in employment levels.

Where will these jobs come from? Name one initiative, one policy that has created one economically advantageous job in the last five years. The talk of jobless recoveries and employment lags is starting to sound like a cargo cult strategy.

senordingdong

GSF wrote: »

It was only yesterday that the government were telling us that these rating agencies know nothing. Today they are being hailed as foresighted geniuses. Make your mind up guys!

Link?

Amhran Nua

Scarab80 wrote: »

Friday 24 September:
CSO report merchandise exports up 12.1% in July over July 2009 and the merchandise trade surplus at an all-time high 0f 4,421.7 million euros.

Which presumably includes the multinationals yes? That money doesn't stay in the economy.

Scarab80 wrote: »

Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that the seasonally-adjusted number on the live register fell by 5,400 in September.

Already heavily disputed in another thread, and in fact predicted by even the pessimists as the government ships unemployed people off the live register and into courses.

Scarab80 wrote: »

Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that milk output was up by 12% in August as compared with August 2009.

Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that agricultural prices were up by 10.9% in July as compared with July 2009, while input prices were down 1.4%, giving an unprecedented increase in agricultural terms of trade of 12.4% in July, as compared with July 2009.

Ah so its agriculture that will save the coutnry.

Scarab80 wrote: »

Friday 1 October:
CSO report that the volume of retail sales was up 1.3% in August, as compared with August 2009.

Friday 1 October:
SIMI report that new car sales in August were 93.8% higher than in August 2009.

Which owes more to the scrappage scheme than to any particular improvements in the economy. And aside from short term VAT injections, what do car dealerships bring to the economy exactly?

Scarab80 wrote: »

Sunday 3 October:
Media leaks that CSO figures to be published in a few weeks will show a big rebound in the number of foreign tourists in Q3, up 15% seasonally-adjusted as compared with Q1 and Q2.

Someone had better tell the hotels, they're closing left and right.

Scarab80 wrote: »

Monday 4 October:
Department of Employment report that the number of redundancies in September were at the lowest since 2007, down 29.6% as compared with August 2009, and little more than half their peak in early 2009.

Also long predicted, the first wave of redundancies were the low hanging fruit. After that come the extended slower and harder decisions.

Scarab80 wrote: »

Monday 4 October:
Department of Finance report best exchequer returns since 2007. Tax receipts up 11.4% in September as compared with September 2009.

Great news! Er... nothing to do with the car scrappage scheme again is it?

Scarab80 wrote: »

Tueday 5 October:
Department of Social Welfare report that, for the second month running, the number of PPSNs issued to foreign nationals in September was up on a year ago, 14.1% higher than in September 2009.

I'm sure all the people without a job in Ireland will be delighted to hear that news.

Look, I get that doom and gloom is bad, I do. But the government built a monstrous house of cards and they let the entire nation depend on it. In useful industrial terms the damn boom probably set up back by a decade rather than moving us forward. We need to see hard strategies, real plans, not pointing a wavering finger at the banks and telling us it will all be okay.

southsiderosie

Given their shambolic performance over the last three to four years, I find it amazing that anybody pays a whit of attention to S&P (or any of the major ratings agencies) these days.

SIX PACK

Come on tell us another fib. Thats just to keep us all Sane
Lets get real about the situation as Brian Lenihan would say. Fcuking Mind bending politicians :mad:

Citizen_Cutback

Scarab80 wrote: »

Ripped from here

In the week when all of the banking costs were announced the following announcements were also made...

I admire your positivity but you have been very positive about everything the Government has done, uncritically so it seems.....

Haven't you previously posted in other threads in this Forum that we weren't really paying over money to the Banks.

You explained that Promissory Notes are only IOU's. It's a pity that the Bond markets no longer buy this line because we now have to pay in the region of 400 basis points above the Germans to service our debt repayments.

You also explained that NAMA with it's a private company structure is off the Balance Sheet.

You also persisted with telling us that the Bank Bailout "investments" would not be added to our Budget Deficit this year but the EU saw it otherwise.

Sorry to say, I view your posts as being informative but generally misleading.

Tipp Man

Scarab80 wrote: »

Ripped from here

In the week when all of the banking costs were announced the following announcements were also made...

Friday 24 September:
CSO report merchandise exports up 12.1% in July over July 2009 and the merchandise trade surplus at an all-time high 0f 4,421.7 million euros.



Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that the seasonally-adjusted number on the live register fell by 5,400 in September.


Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that milk output was up by 12% in August as compared with August 2009.


Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that agricultural prices were up by 10.9% in July as compared with July 2009, while input prices were down 1.4%, giving an unprecedented increase in agricultural terms of trade of 12.4% in July, as compared with July 2009.


Friday 1 October:
CSO report that the volume of retail sales was up 1.3% in August, as compared with August 2009.


Friday 1 October:
SIMI report that new car sales in August were 93.8% higher than in August 2009.


Sunday 3 October:
Media leaks that CSO figures to be published in a few weeks will show a big rebound in the number of foreign tourists in Q3, up 15% seasonally-adjusted as compared with Q1 and Q2.


Monday 4 October:
Department of Employment report that the number of redundancies in September were at the lowest since 2007, down 29.6% as compared with August 2009, and little more than half their peak in early 2009.


Monday 4 October:
Department of Finance report best exchequer returns since 2007. Tax receipts up 11.4% in September as compared with September 2009. Tax receipts above target (profile) for the third consecutive month, again the first time this has happened since 2007. The amount by which tax receipts are short of target (profile) has fallen from 1.6% in June, to 1.4% in July, to 0.7% in August, to 0.2% in September.


Tueday 5 October:
Department of Social Welfare report that, for the second month running, the number of PPSNs issued to foreign nationals in September was up on a year ago, 14.1% higher than in September 2009.

Yet you politely ommit this

Thursday 23 September

CSO reports that "GDP and GNP both decline, seasonally adjusted" GNP falls by 0.3% and GDP falls by 1.2%"

Just to comment on some of your points above

1. Exports up -good news
2. The live register also fell in February when we were also supposed to have turned a corner, it then proceeded to rise for the next 6 months
3. Milk output was up due solely to the weather - 2009 was one of the worst in generations from an agricultural weather point of view
4. Agricultural trade increased so dramatically because 2009 was one of the worst price wise in generations as world market prices slumped for grains and dairy products
5. new cars and consumer confidence up -could they have gotten much worse, in the whole country in 2009 we only registered 57,000 cars, it couldn't have gotten much worse. There were more than double this being registered in Dublin alone earlier in the decade, nevermind the scrappage scheme
6. Have yet to see the official figures for this tourist boom
7. As said previously we couldn't keep making people redundant at the rate we were - if that continued then the whole country would be unemployed at this stage. Just because we are falling slower doesn't mean we aren't still falling
8. Tax receipts above profile is a bit misleading, basically by September we are only 0.2% behind budget in tax receipts whereas in June we were 1.6% behind target. Overall we are slightly under our target for tax receipts, how is this turning a corner??

P. Breathnach

Amhran Nua wrote: »

How many hits do you get for UFOs?

That's an irritatingly silly response.

Where will these jobs come from? Name one initiative, one policy that has created one economically advantageous job in the last five years. The talk of jobless recoveries and employment lags is starting to sound like a cargo cult strategy.

Make your mind up about what the topic is. I am simply reminding you that the idea of a jobless recovery has credence, despite your swatting it aside, and that employment does indeed generally lag behind economic recovery.

If you want to challenge ideas that are generally accepted in economics, I suggest that you head off to the economics forum rather than try to deal with them in a politics forum.

tara73

Scarab80 wrote: »

Ripped from here

In the week when all of the banking costs were announced the following announcements were also made...

Friday 24 September:
CSO report merchandise exports up 12.1% in July over July 2009 and the merchandise trade surplus at an all-time high 0f 4,421.7 million euros.



Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that the seasonally-adjusted number on the live register fell by 5,400 in September.


Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that milk output was up by 12% in August as compared with August 2009.


Wednesday 29 September:
CSO report that agricultural prices were up by 10.9% in July as compared with July 2009, while input prices were down 1.4%, giving an unprecedented increase in agricultural terms of trade of 12.4% in July, as compared with July 2009.


Friday 1 October:
CSO report that the volume of retail sales was up 1.3% in August, as compared with August 2009.


Friday 1 October:
SIMI report that new car sales in August were 93.8% higher than in August 2009.


Sunday 3 October:
Media leaks that CSO figures to be published in a few weeks will show a big rebound in the number of foreign tourists in Q3, up 15% seasonally-adjusted as compared with Q1 and Q2.


Monday 4 October:
Department of Employment report that the number of redundancies in September were at the lowest since 2007, down 29.6% as compared with August 2009, and little more than half their peak in early 2009.


Monday 4 October:
Department of Finance report best exchequer returns since 2007. Tax receipts up 11.4% in September as compared with September 2009. Tax receipts above target (profile) for the third consecutive month, again the first time this has happened since 2007. The amount by which tax receipts are short of target (profile) has fallen from 1.6% in June, to 1.4% in July, to 0.7% in August, to 0.2% in September.


Tueday 5 October:
Department of Social Welfare report that, for the second month running, the number of PPSNs issued to foreign nationals in September was up on a year ago, 14.1% higher than in September 2009.

would be great if this would be true.

can you clarify with a reliable link where this figures were published. your link above just directs to another random poster on a different forum, figures backed up on nothing as far as I can see. thanks.

GSF

senordingdong wrote: »

Link?

I'm sure you recall the government disagreeing with Fitches downgrading Irish debt a week ago?

Rabble Rabble

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Which presumably includes the multinationals yes? That money doesn't stay in the economy.

That's always the catch cry. It stays with wages and corporation tax. Most of the real boom from 1992-2001 was multi-national driven.

Already heavily disputed in another thread, and in fact predicted by even the pessimists as the government ships unemployed people off the live register and into courses.

Is disputed in another thread some kind of actual factual response. I am sure it was, and by you, but board's threads are not sources.

Ah so its agriculture that will save the coutnry.

It will help. Every primary or secondary industry has a greater effect on jobs down the line - i.e. service jobs. Farmers export more, get more money, and buy a meal in a restaurant, paying wages to the server who gets a haircut, and so on. Exports are very important to Ireland.

Which owes more to the scrappage scheme than to any particular improvements in the economy. And aside from short term VAT injections, what do car dealerships bring to the economy exactly?

They are a sympthom of a wider effect, something you would have posted were sale down 90%.

Someone had better tell the hotels, they're closing left and right.

Either the tourists were up 15% or they weren't, zombie hotels are irrelevant to that figure. In fact the hotels were built on cheap credit, tourism was not too bouyant in the boom - now that Ireland is cheaper....

Also long predicted, the first wave of redundancies were the low hanging fruit. After that come the extended slower and harder decisions.

Which is restating the statistics more pessimistically.

Great news! Er... nothing to do with the car scrappage scheme again is it?

This is in regards to the 11.4% in crease in government receipts. I dont know, but probably not.

I'm sure all the people without a job in Ireland will be delighted to hear that news.

They will when the economy picks up and jobs are generated. Whats happening to Ireland now is exactly what happened in 1992. Exports were up, jobs lagged. People complained about multinationals. It took 5 years to boom.

Scarab80

tara73 wrote: »

would be great if this would be true.

can you clarify with a reliable link where this figures were published. your link above just directs to another random poster on a different forum, figures backed up on nothing as far as I can see. thanks.

It is identified in each case bar one where the information comes from, it's pretty easy to find but i'll help you out.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/external_trade/current/extrade.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/prices/current/api.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/agriculture/current/milk.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/services/current/rsi.pdf
http://www.deti.ie/employment/redundancy/statistics.htm
http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6526
http://www.welfare.ie/EN/Topics/PPSN/Pages/ppsn_all_month10.aspx

ardmacha

Tax receipts above profile is a bit misleading, basically by September we are only 0.2% behind budget in tax receipts whereas in June we were 1.6% behind target. Overall we are slightly under our target for tax receipts, how is this turning a corner??

if we were significantly behind in June but almost there in September is this not indeed an improvement?

Someone had better tell the hotels, they're closing left and right.

Some of these hotels will never be successful, they were built with a view to tax concession not the demand from the market. Tourist demand in the first half of the year was depressed by cold weather and volcanic ash, it will be better in the second half.

They will when the economy picks up and jobs are generated. Whats happening to Ireland now is exactly what happened in 1992. Exports were up, jobs lagged. People complained about multinationals. It took 5 years to boom.

But we didn't have boards.ie then so people could only give out in the pub.

gurramok

Scarab80 wrote: »

It is identified in each case bar one where the information comes from, it's pretty easy to find but i'll help you out.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/external_trade/current/extrade.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/prices/current/api.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/agriculture/current/milk.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/services/current/rsi.pdf
http://www.deti.ie/employment/redundancy/statistics.htm
http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6526
http://www.welfare.ie/EN/Topics/PPSN/Pages/ppsn_all_month10.aspx

The unemployment one is no indicator of whats going on, same happened this time last year due to education courses and emigration. Wait for employment numbers before jumping up an down.

Regarding the following:

Scarab80 wrote: »

Department of Finance report best exchequer returns since 2007. Tax receipts up 11.4% in September as compared with September 2009. Tax receipts above target (profile) for the third consecutive month, again the first time this has happened since 2007. The amount by which tax receipts are short of target (profile) has fallen from 1.6% in June, to 1.4% in July, to 0.7% in August, to 0.2% in September.

Where does it say in your link of the above? http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6526

If your quoting profile for positive results, that is a hollow prediction based not on the reality of year on year receipts.

All I see is revenues down year on year from 24.366bn for Jan-Sept 2009 to 23.285bn for Jan-Sept 2010. Income tax is still falling as well and may hint at a continuous fall in employment numbers.

P. Breathnach

ardmacha wrote: »

... Some of these hotels will never be successful, they were built with a view to tax concession not the demand from the market.

That is a truth so self-evident as to be embarrassing. You can visit just about any town in Ireland and find at least one of these new yellow-painted hotels (they do all seem to be yellow, don't they?). It's as true for towns of no special tourism interest as it is for towns in heavily-touristed areas.

... But we didn't have boards.ie then so people could only give out in the pub.

So boards.ie keeps us out of pubs, then? I knew it had to be good for something.

RichardAnd

P. Breathnach wrote: »

So boards.ie keeps us out of pubs, then? I knew it had to be good for something.

Hmm pubs are often full of people whining about things without bothering to educate themselves fully on. That sounds very much like the average poster in here.

rumour

Generally it's good news but irrelevant. Has anyone noticed at the minute we're all doom and gloom at the behest of the media, pretty much the same way we were all ready to stone anyone who critisced our magnificent economy in 2007.

The collapse of the economy has stablised according to S&P who never saw anything wrong with what we were doing for five years. They downgraded our credit rating only two months ago. Now they're saying it's good news. Why is anyone listening to them. Has anyone noticed that they are always behind what the market thinks and do not have a good track record even at monitoring that.

A cautionary note, there was cheer by the bucket load some weeks ago championed by the Irish Times no less that our bonds didn't go over 5%. Some weeks later teetering around 6% it was all doom again.

No amount of media management will fix our addiction to credit.

The whole debate here and in the media is centered around how much we can make foreigners believe we are good to lend too and how screwed we'll be if they don't believe us. How F****** debasing and infantile!

We are a country, not junkies plotting our next fix.

This little bit of news is irrelevant....we've withdrawn from the bond market, the Comissioner and Trichet are telling us what are budget needs to be and telling us that all our politcians have to sign on the line election or not.

The only good news will be when we have addressed our addiction to credit.

Scarab80

Amhran Nua wrote: »

In useful industrial terms the damn boom probably set up back by a decade rather than moving us forward.

Interesting article on that issue here

Amhran Nua wrote: »

We need to see hard strategies, real plans, not pointing a wavering finger at the banks and telling us it will all be okay.

I disagree, what the private sector needs is access to funding and a return in consumer confidence, they don't need government plans, although saying that I do think the SEAI grant system is a good plan in that it provides employment to the hardest hit sector and has a real payback to the country.

Scarab80

Tipp Man wrote: »

Yet you politely ommit this

Thursday 23 September

CSO reports that "GDP and GNP both decline, seasonally adjusted" GNP falls by 0.3% and GDP falls by 1.2%"

You asked me for any positive news. Regardless i'll try and spin this The fall in GNP was the smallest in 9 quarters. the fall in GDP followed an increase of 2.2% in the previous quarter, no one was prediciting an annual rise of over 2% in GDP so that figure was likely due to multinationals building up inventories - nevertheless GDP is still up on Q4 2009.

Tipp Man wrote: »

The live register also fell in February when we were also supposed to have turned a corner, it then proceeded to rise for the next 6 months

Actually it fell in March and April and then rose as colleges and schools chucked out students into the job market.

Tipp Man wrote: »

new cars and consumer confidence up -could they have gotten much worse, in the whole country in 2009 we only registered 57,000 cars, it couldn't have gotten much worse. There were more than double this being registered in Dublin alone earlier in the decade, nevermind the scrappage scheme

As said previously we couldn't keep making people redundant at the rate we were - if that continued then the whole country would be unemployed at this stage. Just because we are falling slower doesn't mean we aren't still falling

So you agree things are getting better?

Scarab80

gurramok wrote: »

All I see is revenues down year on year from 24.366bn for Jan-Sept 2009 to 23.285bn for Jan-Sept 2010. Income tax is still falling as well and may hint at a continuous fall in employment numbers.

Yeah it's a bit annoying that they don't show month on month figures, i've got an excel sheet i download exchequer returns into to pull out month on month figures.

Income Tax September 2009 - 646,174
Income Tax September 2019 - 725,630

You can check by looking at previous months exch return and subtracting the figures. Incidentally this is the first month that this has happened with income tax so I'm not saying it is sustainable but it's better than another fall.

ardmacha

Interesting article on that issue here

This article seems to be based on actual facts and it doesn't mention the public sector anywhere. I don't see why you think that sort of thing is welcome in this forum.

Income Tax September 2009 - 646,174
Income Tax September 2019 - 725,630

More actual facts. It's all a mirage.

Scarab80

Citizen_Cutback wrote: »

I admire your positivity but you have been very positive about everything the Government has done, uncritically so it seems.....

I'm not pro government, it may just seem that way because I don't go along with the "half a million unemployed", "banks cost us 100bn" brigade.

Citizen_Cutback wrote: »

Haven't you previously posted in other threads in this Forum that we weren't really paying over money to the Banks.

I've posted the amounts financed through the exchequer given to the banks, is that what you mean. It's still correct.

Citizen_Cutback wrote: »

You explained that Promissory Notes are only IOU's. It's a pity that the Bond markets no longer buy this line because we now have to pay in the region of 400 basis points above the Germans to service our debt repayments.

I said at the time that it should be expected that these promissory notes should be recognised in our borrowing costs. Although 22bn of Anglo and 3bn of INBS had been announced in March this year it seems it took the markets a while to catch up. No idea why, maybe they were too busy with Greece.

Citizen_Cutback wrote: »

You also explained that NAMA with it's a private company structure is off the Balance Sheet.

It is, it is not reflected in our general government debt. Ironically only S&P have decided to recognise these bonds in GGD, without recognising any of the assets.

Citizen_Cutback wrote: »

You also persisted with telling us that the Bank Bailout "investments" would not be added to our Budget Deficit this year but the EU saw it otherwise.

I could be wrong but I don't remember saying that, especially not persisting in saying it.

Scarab80

rumour wrote: »

Generally it's good news but irrelevant. Has anyone noticed at the minute we're all doom and gloom at the behest of the media, pretty much the same way we were all ready to stone anyone who critisced our magnificent economy in 2007.

+1

Amhran Nua

P. Breathnach wrote: »

That's an irritatingly silly response.

You point to a patently ridiculous concept and then complain that the response is silly? Jobless recoveries don't happen. In a welcome departure from your normal discussion style, perhaps you could tell us, in your own words, why you think they might conceivably exist.

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Make your mind up about what the topic is. I am simply reminding you that the idea of a jobless recovery has credence, despite your swatting it aside, and that employment does indeed generally lag behind economic recovery.

So have UFOs among those who want to believe in them. It doesn't make them any less ridiculous. And you have failed to dodge the question of where exactly this recovery is meant to come from. No, scratch that, broadly, vaguely, any way at all?

P. Breathnach wrote: »

If you want to challenge ideas that are generally accepted in economics, I suggest that you head off to the economics forum rather than try to deal with them in a politics forum.

Economics is by no means a settled science, there are those who will happily tell you that social welfare should be abolished and back it up with volumes of apparently scholarly work. None of which makes a difference to the fact that they are widely accepted to be wrong, so before you start telling people to go to the economics forum, you might learn the basics of it yourself?

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

That's always the catch cry. It stays with wages and corporation tax. Most of the real boom from 1992-2001 was multi-national driven.

GNP versus GDP, learn the difference.

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Is disputed in another thread some kind of actual factual response. I am sure it was, and by you, but board's threads are not sources.

They are when the threads are chock full of sources.

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

It will help. Every primary or secondary industry has a greater effect on jobs down the line - i.e. service jobs. Farmers export more, get more money, and buy a meal in a restaurant, paying wages to the server who gets a haircut, and so on. Exports are very important to Ireland.

Last I heard, many farmers were using the profits from the sale of land during the boom to pay off debts. The multplier effect you are referring to isn't as simple as it appears on the surface. And again, are all the unemployed going to become farmers?

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

They are a sympthom of a wider effect, something you would have posted were sale down 90%.

No, they are the symptom of the scrappage scheme.

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Either the tourists were up 15% or they weren't, zombie hotels are irrelevant to that figure. In fact the hotels were built on cheap credit, tourism was not too bouyant in the boom - now that Ireland is cheaper....

How do you figure hotels closing are unrelated to tourism figures...?

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Which is restating the statistics more pessimistically.

So you're telling me that the rate at which people are being sacked is reducing, is on the whole, good news?

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

This is in regards to the 11.4% in crease in government receipts. I dont know

Indeed.

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

They will when the economy picks up and jobs are generated. Whats happening to Ireland now is exactly what happened in 1992. Exports were up, jobs lagged. People complained about multinationals. It took 5 years to boom.

Jobs from where? None of the responders in this thread or any other appear to have an answer to this, so lets try it again.

Jobs from where?

Do you need it one more time?

Here's something for the rictus-grin-of-optimism crowd to chew on: when we have about one person in seven in the workforce employed by the state, and one person in five either in education or unemployed, how many people does that take to support? The answer of course is 66% of the workforce. If half of those apparently aren't paying any large amount of tax, again wildly optimistic, how much tax does a third of the workforce need to pay to support the rest, total cost around €50 billion?

Why do you think the Greens are calling for an all party conference?

ardmacha

Jobless recoveries don't happen.

Perhaps, all recoveries increase jobs to some extent. But the relationship between the rate of growth and the rate of employment growth is not linear.

Last I heard, many farmers were using the profits from the sale of land during the boom to pay off debts. The multplier effect you are referring to isn't as simple as it appears on the surface. And again, are all the unemployed going to become farmers?

Some farmers have a lot of debt, some do not. But even if they are all up to their eyes in hock a good year lets them reduce that debt, bringing forward the day when a good year can be used for consumer expenditure. The unemployed cannot all become farmers, as the unemployed cannot all work for IBM, the unemployed cannot work in the hospitality industry etc. The cannot all work for in these sectors, but improvement here is also welcome.