The Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2010-2011

Kippure

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Courtsey of Atlantic flame thrower.

If you follow the pink line. This is where the atlantic might start up again and low after low would head up along the top of the high, while all the cold goes into europe. That said, an early cold spell, usually leads to a severe winter as it starts the cooling process earlier. Theres also something about the amounts of ozone knocking about Up there. (which is way over my understanding)

Danno

Looking at that still from JB's cast, it looks alright for S, SW England and SE Ireland... now, picture Atlantic fronts bumping into it!

nacho libre

Kippure wrote: »

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Courtsey of Atlantic flame thrower.

If you follow the pink line. This is where the atlantic might start up again and low after low would head up along the top of the high, while all the cold goes into europe. That said, an early cold spell, usually leads to a severe winter as it starts the cooling process earlier. Theres also something about the amounts of ozone knocking about Up there. (which is way over my understanding)

That video seems to echo what GP has been saying about a high sitting over us and diverting all the cold air into Europe. Frig. That would be a real kick in the teeth.

Kippure

Danno wrote: »

Looking at that still from JB's cast, it looks alright for S, SW England and SE Ireland... now, picture Atlantic fronts bumping into it!

Thats why i think we will see alot more snow this winter....:D

thetonynator

Kippure wrote: »

Thats why i think we will see alot more snow this winter....:D

You might . . but i think i'll have to move to mt leinster if i want anything . . .

maringo

Below is some factual interesting information contained in the afterword of a book "are you afraid of the dark" by Sidney Sheldon. copyright (c) of Sidney Sheldon. Thought it should be shared and typed it up hope not infringing copyright but it is quite frightening to think weather might be used as a weapon of war.

He writes as follows: The search for the mastery of the elements that began with Nikola Tesla in the late 1800s involving the transmission of electrical energy through space has become a reality.

In 1969 the US Patent Office granted a patent for "a method of increasing the likelihood of precipitation by the artificial introduction of sea water vapor into the atmosphere".
In 1971 a patent was issued to the Westinghouse Electric Corporation for a system of irradiation of planet surface areas.
In the 1970s the US Congressional Committee on Oceans and Internal Environment held hearings on military research into weather and climate modification, and found that the defence department had plans for creating tidal waves through the coordinated use of nuclear weapons.
In 1977 a UN treaty against weather modification for hostile purposes was signed by the US and Russia.
In 1978 the US launched an experiment that created a downpour of rain over six counties in northern Wisconsin. The storm generated winds of one hundred and seventy-five miles an hour and caused fifty million dollars in damages. Russia meanwhile has been working on its own projects.
In 1992 the Wall Street Journal reported that a Russian company, Elat Intelligence Technologies was selling weather control euipment tailored to specific needs, using the slogan "Weather Made to Order". Their services are available worldwide.
As the experiments in both countries continued weather patterns began to change. As early as the 1980s strange weather phenomena were being reported.
"A ridge of high pressure has hovered nearly 800 miles off the California coast for the past two months, blocking the usual flow of moist air from the Pacific." - Time Magazine, January 1981
"...the stagnant high pressure season acted like a barrier, preventing the normal flow of weather patterns from west to east." - New York Times, 29th July 1993.
... We could all sleep better if a world leader said, "Everybody talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it." And it was the truth.
:eek: end of afterword. :eek:

thetonynator

Conspiricy theories forum is thataway >>>>

maringo

The writer stated them as facts in an afterword - I took it that he probably encountered them in his research - for myself, I just found it fascinating and thought i'd share it - don't know how anyone can think its a conspiracy - its not too difficult to research on patents or media reports of weather events.:p

Redsunset

Ok but what does it have to do with this stratospheric warming thread.

maringo

I really have no idea.

Redsunset

Right i've also been scratching my head at this and wondering why all the blocking when a westerly QBO does not generally favour it.
GP over on NW has come up with this explanation,so i'll run with it for now.

QUESTION FROM ANOTHER POSTER
The question I'm asking myself is why the upcoming northerly blocking is more impressive with stratospheric conditions as they are then they were after that large warming event back in early 2009?



GP'S ANSWER
It's worth considering the presence of downwelling and upwelling waves through the stratosphere and upper troposphere tied into the state of the QBO as a having a strong influence on lagged impact of anywarming or sustained cooling.

QBO 'switches' from east to to west and vice versa generate waves. These waves tend to have a periodicity of 3 months and are associated with anomalous upwelling (warming) waves which are reflected back down through the stratosphere and troposphere and also take around 3 months. Upwellng and downwelling waves are particulalry identified during transitions from east to west phase QBO during the autumn and winter months. West phases tend to start with downwelling waves which propogate and are reflected back upwards 3 months later. These can lead to 3 months where there is a noticeable 'trace' in zonal wind anomalies. The transition from an east to west based QBO can provide optimal conditions for blocking through -ve zonal wind anomalies, peaking at the transition point.

We can see the trace of upwelling and downwelling this autumn, the transition to a west QBO taking place during August but not manifesting iteself in the polar atmosphere until late September.



The blocking signal (enhanced -ve zonal wind anomalies) peaked during October and I suspect the cold outbreak that took place then was heavily influenced by this although the blocking signal at 500 hPa and above has remained favourable since October. Looking at the periodicity, the blocking signal should come under pressure at 200hPa around the turn of the year, and then progressively weaken to a minimum in February and March as the downwelling of +ve zonal winds (weakest upwelling waves) reaches its peak intensity. This underlines the extremely long time scales for stratospheric events to impact the troposhere.

During Feb 2009, the west QBO was well establihsed and downwelling waves had penetrated low down into the troposhere with +ve zonal wind anomalies prevelent.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_NH_2009.gif

The warming event (downwelling easterly winds) had difficulty in manifesting in widescale blocking becauase of the the tropospheric - stratospheric coupling for west winds due to La Nina and downwelling waves. It literally had to fight its way down and work against the grain. Any warming event in February this year will likely have a similar task.

Stratospheric impacts on the troposhere during November and December are less probelamtic because +ve zonal wind anomalies have yet to stir sufficiently to interfer with any other signal

Redsunset

Death of the sacred Greenland blocking high???

Is the westerly QBO now rearing it's ugly head?

Which means have the upper atmosphere westerly winds finally reached down to stop any further northern blocking?

Not looking good so i feel we really need a a strong warming in the strat to cause a reversal and split the Polar Vortex but that still does not guarantee a cold invasion once again like early Feb 2009,where blocking was not needed because the PV was ripped apart due to record warming.
However it's getting a bit late in winter now.

As blizzarrd7 has been showing,we look to be going for a warm strat again
Thanks as i've been unable to do much with this thread lately.
The Stratosphere is in a cooling phase at present but is forecast to warm at the 10hpa level and to a lesser extent the 30hpa level -

10hpa level at +240hrs -



30hpa level at +240hrs -

---

However it really has been a start/stop affair to date but the projected zonal wind at 1hp level is now showing a remarkable nosedive toward negative.It's a live image so will change.

Redsunset

Some clues as to the physics behind shifts in the atmosphere

by: erlhapp December 19, 2010




Click on graphs to enlarge

Ring current dynamics affect the distribution of the atmosphere

The Dst index measures the strength of the electromagnetic fields in the Earth’s atmosphere.The Antarctic Oscillation Index and the Arctic Oscillation Indexes represent the balance of pressure between the mid latitude and the respective pole. Practically speaking these indices also represent the flux in polar sea level pressure with the polar index falling as sea level pressure rises.

When the solar wind intensifies the Dst index becomes more negative and it takes a couple of months to fully relax again. In about one half of occasions when it pulses negative both the AO and the AAO move upwards, and on a quarter of occasions it is one and on the other quarter it is the other. There are very few occasions when the polar indices fail to react.

As Dst relaxes the AO and the AAO indices fall indicating a return of atmsopheric mass to the poles

As the atmosphere becomes more compact, it does towards solar minimum and in low amplitude solar cycles, the swings in the AO and the AAO become wilder, with a greater range in their activity. In an atmosphere where neutrals and changed particles are more closely associated it takes less energy from the solar wind to bring about an equivalent shift in the mass of the atmosphere.
Antarctic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation from 2005


In the long term the AO and the AAO are locked together. This tells us that a force that must be external to the Earth itself must be responsible.

What internal force could give rise to a shift of atmospheric mass from high to lower latitudes and gradually magnify the effort over sixty or 100 years, and then reverse the process?

In the short term there can be shifts of atmosphere from one hemisphere to the other due to seasonal influences (pressure at the pole is much higher in winter) and perhaps to the state of the northern hemisphere temperature in winter and the flux of ozone into the stratosphere and troposphere from the stratospheric vortex. Perhaps the solar wind itself can preferentially shift the atmosphere from one hemisphere to the other. Certainly there has been a spectacular decline in pressure in the Antarctic since 1948 which is now bottoming. In the Arctic pressure fell from the 1940′s till the early 1990′s and is now recovering.The recovery is faster in winter. Interestingly, the temperature of northern hemisphere winters is strongly tied to the Arctic Oscillation. When pressure rises during an Arctic winter the westerlies weaken and the polar easterlies descend from their usual habitat in the stratosphere to plunge southwards in what is frequently described as an Arctic Outbreak. The Westerlies retreat south and the entire hemisphere outside of the Arctic cools. In the Arctic circle and the usual centres of downdraft activity, Siberia and Greenland, the surface warms when that descending air contains ozone from the upper stratosphere. Every interval of slightly increased pressure at the pole results in an increase in geopotential heights as ozone is gathered up from the interaction zone of the stratosphere and the mesosphere by renewed vortex activity, absorbs long wave radiation from the Earth and warms the surrounding atmosphere.

The phenomenon is called a sudden stratospheric warming.

Ultimately that ozone finds its way into the troposphere in the mid latitudes where it warms the air so reducing cloud density. The notion that this is all due to ‘planetary waves’ is unphysical. This idea does nothing to explain the propagation of thermal anomalies from upper stratosphere to middle troposphere that occurs every time pressure rises at the pole.



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So folks in posting all that we see a large coronal hole has formed and will send solar winds our way.





January 30, 2011 - CORONAL HOLE: A dark croissant-shaped hole has opened up in the sun’s atmosphere, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind into space. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory took this picture of the vast opening during the early hours of Jan. 30th. Researchers call this a “coronal hole.” Solar rotation is turning the coronal hole toward Earth.

The stream of solar wind pouring from it will swing around and hit our planet in early February, possibly sparking polar magnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras between Feb. 2nd and 4th. The coronal blast from the Sun storm’s arrival on Earth will coincide with a massive snow storm that will sweep across North America. -Space Weather


So what havoc will this play on the strat?.
Warming anyone?

All eyes on the graph for the next while.

Redsunset

And so begins the climb,but how high will she go.Another view of the ongoing warming.





Also mean zonal winds hinting at strong easterlies developing around 10 days time so i say hello to height rises to the north,if it goes to plan.So all to play for.





And of course the

STRATALERT TOKYO
STRATALERT TOKYO 03 FEB2011 0900 UTC30-HPA ANALYSIS 1200UTC 1 FEB1. COLD MINUS 82 80N 45E, WARM MINUS 37 60N 153E, LOW 165 78N 83E, HIGH 398 58N 140W.2. CONDITIONS AT 30-HPA HEIGHT FEILD, POLAR VOLTEX IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SIBERIA. ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA COLD AIR LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF SIBERIA. WARM AIR LIES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA.3. STRATALERT EXISTS. MINOR WARMING CONTINUED AT 30-HPA. TEMPERATURE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA INCREASED WITH MAXIMUM 39 DEGREES FROM 25 JAN TO 1 FEB 2011.REMARK: THE HEIGHT DATA SHOULD BE READ IN DECAMETERS ADDING 20 KILOMETERS.=

TheInquisitor

Humm massive climb going on at the moment? Surprised Redsunset isn't on this??

Something freaky going on alright... the AGWers must be shítting themselves!

maquiladora

I dont really understands the strat warming stuff, but that does look even more dramatic now :



Anyone taking a stab at the significance of that?

Normaly, when you see a chart like that, you check your kit first!

Aiel

What does it mean for future weather prospects?

Danno

It takes a couple of weeks to feed into the lower atmosphere. It brings about northern blocking (high pressure over or to the north of Ireland) instead of the usual low pressure cells.

Su Campu

The stratosphere warms naturally from April onwards and all strat warnings are discontined then until the following winter. The strat-watching is now over so we can put this thread back into hibernation for 6 months!

Redsunset

Correct it's called the Final warming and does not interest me as opposed to a mid winter warming.Very impressive spike all the same.