Waterford Election 2011

comeraghs

Lets say that either the bye-election is held in the middle of next year or the Govt collapses & there is a general election .... Who do you think would get in in Waterford?

comeraghs

FF might struggle to keep even one seat .... Kennelly isn´t exactly lighting up the world

FG would be hoping for 2 ... but I think John Deasy might be after messing things up for himself ,..... Coffey is very likely ... esp in a bye-election

Labour ... Will O´Shea run? Will Halligan join Lab?

Sinn Fein? possibly!

Greens .... no chance ... McCann screwed up what little chance that party had!

Mary Roche or another as an Independent?

hardybuck

If it is a bye-election I think Paudie Coffey will walk it.

People in Waterford have mentioned that we might be better off with an independant-they are only powerful when the party in power holds a very narrow majority, and the swing in their vote could make a huge difference. However, in the next election this will not be the case. There will be a strong majority shared by probably FG and LAB.

Kenneally could make himself a hero if he made a stand on something Waterford related and went independant. For him being FF will have pros and cons come the next election. Certain people will turn on him for being FF, others will continue to vote for him as he will be the only serious FF candidate. However, I think he has his heart set on a junior ministry and will sit tight, and could scrape in again.

Much depends on the Labour candidates. Its unclear if O'Shea will go again, and as yet there isn't an obvious sucessor. Halligan could be a possibility-but would his profile outside of the city come against him?

Smiley Burnett

hardybuck wrote: »

If it is a bye-election I think Paudie Coffey will walk it.

People in Waterford have mentioned that we might be better off with an independant-they are only powerful when the party in power holds a very narrow majority, and the swing in their vote could make a huge difference. However, in the next election this will not be the case. There will be a strong majority shared by probably FG and LAB.

Kenneally could make himself a hero if he made a stand on something Waterford related and went independant. For him being FF will have pros and cons come the next election. Certain people will turn on him for being FF, others will continue to vote for him as he will be the only serious FF candidate. However, I think he has his heart set on a junior ministry and will sit tight, and could scrape in again.

Much depends on the Labour candidates. Its unclear if O'Shea will go again, and as yet there isn't an obvious sucessor. Halligan could be a possibility-but would his profile outside of the city come against him?

Brendan Kenneally a junior minister????!!! In what Government???

hardybuck

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

Brendan Kenneally a junior minister????!!! In what Government???

Believe it or not he was hoping for one in the last cabinet reshuffle on the basis that Waterford deserved something after losing Cullen. FF won't get in next time and probably won't reshuffle in the near future so thats out of the question.

1971

hardybuck wrote: »

Believe it or not he was hoping for one in the last cabinet reshuffle on the basis that Waterford deserved something after losing Cullen. FF won't get in next time and probably won't reshuffle in the near future so thats out of the question.[/QUOTE

Brendan Kenneally a junior minister

The only reason that guy is hoping for a junior ministry is to increase his wages, this will have nothing to do with whats goin on in Waterford.this guy is only interested in money(highest expensives in Dial)he is about as USEFUL as a hole in a boat.

the people of waterford kicked him out in the last election, but the fool that replaced him was even greeder than he was, so what did the people of waterford DO?? we reelected him

What you sow you will reap

hardybuck

Sure thats pretty much stating the obvious really. Anyone who goes for a job promotion will be looking to have a pay bump to go with it.

I've not given any opinions on the chap, I'll keep them to myself, but I'm just giving a picture of current events.

Max Powers

Paudie Coffey id say,
Labour are a joke and incapable of making a decision which affects their base.
Green party have no interest in Waterford only to demote us and lastly FF, yeah right.
Indpendents, i cant see them being needed in next government formed by FG and probably the public service unions, i mean labour
so it looks like Paudie for me.

Trotter

Theres a lot to be said for having one independent in the 4 seats purely to make noise on our behalf without party constraints. Nothing like the public moans and groans of an independent giving out about the performance of the other 3 TDs to get things done.

If we'd elected an independent in the last GE, I wonder would we have our university now. I suspect we would.

Trotter

So there we go.. The Dáil has voted not to allow Waterford to have its full representation in the Dáil.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0929/politics.html

Its really frustrating. The least we should have is 4 voices to speak for us at a national level.

Partizan

There wont be a bye-election. The next election we will see will be the biggie.

Here's my prediction in a General Election:

Deasy FG (elected 1st count)
O'Shea Lab (elected 2nd count)
Coffey FG (Elected 3rd count)
Kenneally/A.N.Other FF (scrapes in)

---

the rest:
Cullinane SF - 3,500
Halligan Ind - 3,400
WP - 1,500
Conway Ind - 1,500
PBP - 800
Greens - 500

1971

hardybuck wrote: »

Sure thats pretty much stating the obvious really. Anyone who goes for a job promotion will be looking to have a pay bump to go with it.

====================================================================================================

the job that this guy is "to represent the people of waterford"the purpose of the job is to look after the people that voted for him.Waterford is his biggest concern not filling his pockete with extra cash

==================================================================================================

I've not given any opinions on the chap, I'll keep them to myself, but I'm just giving a picture of current events.

Why do you come to a FORUM if you are going to keep your opinion to your self.

hardybuck

1971 wrote: »

Why do you come to a FORUM if you are going to keep your opinion to your self.

Ok, well in my opinion you should mind your own business. I don't think my opinions on whether I think Kenneally is the best or the worst thing to happen to politics will be keeping you coming here.

1971

hardybuck wrote: »

Ok, well in my opinion you should mind your own business. I don't think my opinions on whether I think Kenneally is the best or the worst thing to happen to politics will be keeping you coming here.

sad!!

dayshah

Partizan wrote: »

There wont be a bye-election. The next election we will see will be the biggie.

Here's my prediction in a General Election:

Deasy FG (elected 1st count)
O'Shea Lab (elected 2nd count)
Coffey FG (Elected 3rd count)
Kenneally/A.N.Other FF (scrapes in)

---

the rest:
Cullinane SF - 3,500
Halligan Ind - 3,400
WP - 1,500
Conway Ind - 1,500
PBP - 800
Greens - 500

Isn't O'Shea stepping aside. At least its on the cards (he is near retirement age).

As for Labour not able to make a decision, they were right on the 35billion euro question two years ago.

Gardner

Guys,
There is some awful rubbish been sprouted on this topic. If a by election is called in the morning its between 3 candidates. Coffey, Halligan and Ryan.

What benefit does Waterford get out of electing any of those 3?
Little with Coffey, back bench in the opposition. Ryan again like Coffey will offer nothing other than a back bench spot! Halligan as an independent will be seen by the government as an opportunity to stay in power and add a bit of stability especially if Lenihan comes into power. Lenihan will want to see out the full term to get his profile up and he may want to broker a deal with Halligan.

Coffey will take the seat but it will be a waste of time electing him.

Now as for a general election. I think the next government will be a FG/LAB/IND government with Kenny or Bruton in charge with Lenihan in charge of the opposition. It doesn’t matter who Waterford elect because we will not have a minister or a junior minister! Deasy is unpopular within the party and Coffey hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight in the senate plus there is a lot more people ahead of him in line within FG and LAB.

This is what I think is needed for the people of Waterford. The independents need to come together as one. Agree on one candidate and stand him/her. I appeal to Cha O Neill, Mary Roche, Dick Roche, Davy Daniels and John Halligan of Waterford city council and the independents of the County Council, UNITE under the one banner and get what’s best for Waterford. The evidence is quiet clear that it works (Lowry, Gregory, Healy-Rae).

Prediction:
FF will get one seat here, it’s a banker. In the last general election FF received 23,025 1st pref votes between their 3 candidates. If FF are going to run 1 candidate then he is a banker. If the second is chosen to run, it will be Gary Wyse, he will prob poll 3-4k but still there first choice Kenneally will get in.

FG choose to run 3 candidates also in 2007 which achieved 13,552 1st pref votes. Deasy will hold the vote in west and will be elected on the 1st count. Coffey on the other hand will come very close to taking a seat.

Lab no matter who they run will take a seat.

So

Deasy FG
Kenneally FF
O Shea/ Ryan Lab
Coffey FG/ Halligan Ind

Deasy 10,000
O Shea/ Ryan 8000
Kenneally 6700
Coffey 6500
Halligan 5000
Wyse 3700
Cullinane 3200
Greens 900
Conway 800
PBP 600
Walsh WP 500
Others 500
Spoilt 400

That gives us a turnout of about 66-68%

The transfer of SF towards Halligan especially with the City vote could be very interesting. WP vote won’t matter as they have no candidate to run and if Walsh runs they will be lucky to poll above 500 especially when Halligan only got 1700 in last election and he was a good candidate.

So what way would I vote?? If FG guarantee John Deasy a Ministers spot then I would give him my number one, but if this is not the case which is 99% certain then I will vote Halligan no.1 as the independent candidate. Waterford have nothing to lose by giving him a seat because if the usual 4 get in then it’s going to be the same old story!

Sully

I think, regardless of who is leader of FG, that Coffey has a better chance at getting a front bench position then Deasy. Sadly, it seems that ship has long sailed. FG and Labour will get a seat with more ease then others, but I think Paudie has a greater chance of being elected along with Deasy.

Having an independent will make very little difference, and only when numbers are tight is there even a slight chance of it making a difference. As it stands, Independents are voting with the government that the people want out. FF have also shown that regardless, they wont give into an independent just to get a vote in their favour.

I wouldn't be banking my money on an Independent to do good for us, because they are effectively unheard of when a government is strong. They may hold some cards when its weak, but not a good gamble.

CantGetNoSleep

Did Healy Rae and Lowry not get good deals with FF for their constituencies in 2007?

Sully

CantGetNoSleep wrote: »

Did Healy Rae and Lowry not get good deals with FF for their constituencies in 2007?

As I said, it depends on the markup of the government and how desperate things are. As it stands, its either Lab/FF or FF/FG coalition.

dayshah

Sully wrote: »

I wouldn't be banking my money on an Independent to do good for us, because they are effectively unheard of when a government is strong. They may hold some cards when its weak, but not a good gamble.

If Halligan gets in he is likely to cooperate closely with Labour. He might even end up joining. But I certainly wouldn't vote for an independent just for the sake of it.

Max Powers

Gardner, with respect, i think Independents wont have any power in next government as FG Lab or going to have it sown up between them, no need for any independent support. I would vote FG as I think we have best chance of getting investment here if we elected 3 FGs in. I would rather FG get in granted by themselves without Lab as i think they are a joke, in that case they might need a few independents but it looks like in every poll that neither is big enough to go it alone.

dayshah

Max Powers wrote: »

Gardner, with respect, i think Independents wont have any power in next government as FG Lab or going to have it sown up between them, no need for any independent support. I would vote FG as I think we have best chance of getting investment here if we elected 3 FGs in. I would rather FG get in granted by themselves without Lab as i think they are a joke, in that case they might need a few independents but it looks like in every poll that neither is big enough to go it alone.

Have we ever elected more than 1 FG TD?

I'd say much of the FF vote in Waterford would swing Lab and independent rather than FG.

Typhoon.

Phil hogan in FG is bad news for Waterford..we wont see a thing if that man has anything to do with it

Sully

Typhoon. wrote: »

Phil hogan in FG is bad news for Waterford..we wont see a thing if that man has anything to do with it

Is this the nonsense spouted by the mayor there a while back? Or is there any further basis to that argument?

Bards

Sully wrote: »

Is this the nonsense spouted by the mayor there a while back? Or is there any further basis to that argument?

Hogan even said the M9 is a wste of money and wouldn't serve Kilkenny becuase it by-passes it

He is a Joke - He was also present at an IBEC Breakfast briefing a couple of years back and said he didn't favour the Extension of the boundary into Kilkenny, and instead insisted waterford CIty expand into Co. Waterford - we would end up with an oblong City (unsustainable Linear development) instead of a more normal radial and better orgasnised City - Is this what FG wants Waterford to become?

How can Waterford City (The Gateway City in the S.E) hope to compete with its peer cities if we are not given all the tools to fight the battles

It is a joke that the City Centre is hamstrung when it cannot expand naturally and you have one local authority doing every thing in their power to extract as much rates as they can get without taking into account proper planning, transport and land use.

Typhoon.

Sully wrote: »

Is this the nonsense spouted by the mayor there a while back? Or is there any further basis to that argument?

I must've missed that... what did the mayor say about him?

Sully

Bards wrote: »

Hogan even said the M9 is a wste of money and wouldn't serve Kilkenny becuase it by-passes it

He is a Joke - He was also present at an IBEC Breakfast briefing a couple of years back and said he didn't favour the Extension of the boundary into Kilkenny, and instead insisted waterford CIty expand into Co. Waterford - we would end up with an oblong City (unsustainable Linear development) instead of a more normal radial and better orgasnised City - Is this what FG wants Waterford to become?

How can Waterford City (The Gateway City in the S.E) hope to compete with its peer cities if we are not given all the tools to fight the battles

It is a joke that the City Centre is hamstrung when it cannot expand naturally and you have one local authority doing every thing in their power to extract as much rates as they can get without taking into account proper planning, transport and land use.

Thankfully, he isn't a minister for Waterford. If we have Paudie and John representing us in the Dail, then its double the voice and I am sure that FG will listen to them over someone from Kilkenny shouting for his own constituency.

Typhoon. wrote: »

I must've missed that... what did the mayor say about him?

It was around the time a town councilor in Tramore, also FG, called on Kenny to confirm the party intentions for University for WIT. Mary Roche had some choice words, somewhat back tracked later, along a similar line to yourself.

At the end of the day, we might as well not have any representation in the Dail if this is our mentality. Other surrounding constituencies will fight their corner and wont take any heed of us to get what their voters want. Regardless of party, this will happen.

Plus we have Sen. John Paul Phelan who would not be in the slightest negative to us and is regularly down these parts at various Fine Gael events and meetings. I cant see JP being negative for Waterford in the slightest. One would assume he will run for election to the Dail also.

Overall, one man who may have been favouring his voters over Waterford in a whole party is no reason not to vote your two FG candidates in Waterford. We are clearly a forgotten city in this government, and its time that when a new government gets in we elect two FG candidates to ensure a better and stronger voice for us and hopefully seeing Waterford being listened to in the cabinet.

We would be shooting ourselves in the foot to give FG a miss because of what a Kilkenny TD said!

Typhoon.

I agree... if paudie and deasey were elected and maybe a labour candidate they would have a fair bit of clout then

Bards

Just one more thing to add - It was a FG minister who moved the director of the IDA S.E to Cork in the hope that Wexford would get more jobs due to the fact (In his eyes) all the jobs were going to Waterford:eek:

Typhoon.

that and the university blocking are the two points spring to mind bards

fuzzy dunlop

Gardner wrote: »

Guys,
There is some awful rubbish been sprouted on this topic. If a by election is called in the morning its between 3 candidates. Coffey, Halligan and Ryan.

What benefit does Waterford get out of electing any of those 3?
Little with Coffey, back bench in the opposition. Ryan again like Coffey will offer nothing other than a back bench spot! Halligan as an independent will be seen by the government as an opportunity to stay in power and add a bit of stability especially if Lenihan comes into power. Lenihan will want to see out the full term to get his profile up and he may want to broker a deal with Halligan.

Coffey will take the seat but it will be a waste of time electing him.

Now as for a general election. I think the next government will be a FG/LAB/IND government with Kenny or Bruton in charge with Lenihan in charge of the opposition. It doesn’t matter who Waterford elect because we will not have a minister or a junior minister! Deasy is unpopular within the party and Coffey hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight in the senate plus there is a lot more people ahead of him in line within FG and LAB.

This is what I think is needed for the people of Waterford. The independents need to come together as one. Agree on one candidate and stand him/her. I appeal to Cha O Neill, Mary Roche, Dick Roche, Davy Daniels and John Halligan of Waterford city council and the independents of the County Council, UNITE under the one banner and get what’s best for Waterford. The evidence is quiet clear that it works (Lowry, Gregory, Healy-Rae).

Prediction:
FF will get one seat here, it’s a banker. In the last general election FF received 23,025 1st pref votes between their 3 candidates. If FF are going to run 1 candidate then he is a banker. If the second is chosen to run, it will be Gary Wyse, he will prob poll 3-4k but still there first choice Kenneally will get in.

FG choose to run 3 candidates also in 2007 which achieved 13,552 1st pref votes. Deasy will hold the vote in west and will be elected on the 1st count. Coffey on the other hand will come very close to taking a seat.

Lab no matter who they run will take a seat.

So

Deasy FG
Kenneally FF
O Shea/ Ryan Lab
Coffey FG/ Halligan Ind

Deasy 10,000
O Shea/ Ryan 8000
Kenneally 6700
Coffey 6500
Halligan 5000
Wyse 3700
Cullinane 3200
Greens 900
Conway 800
PBP 600
Walsh WP 500
Others 500
Spoilt 400

That gives us a turnout of about 66-68%

The transfer of SF towards Halligan especially with the City vote could be very interesting. WP vote won’t matter as they have no candidate to run and if Walsh runs they will be lucky to poll above 500 especially when Halligan only got 1700 in last election and he was a good candidate.

So what way would I vote?? If FG guarantee John Deasy a Ministers spot then I would give him my number one, but if this is not the case which is 99% certain then I will vote Halligan no.1 as the independent candidate. Waterford have nothing to lose by giving him a seat because if the usual 4 get in then it’s going to be the same old story!

Good Assessment. Nothing short of a guarantee written in blood that Coffey or Deasy will be made a senior minister will warrent a vote for Fine Gael.But the fact is Coffey and Deasy are going nowhere.Coffey is unheard of outside of Waterford and his acheivements for Waterford consist of writing a letter to the local newspapers every couple of weeks with straw man stories.

Fine Gael have huge problems at the moment and Enda Kenny or any other FG leader can't upset the apple cart by giving a johnny come lately like Paudie Coffey a cabinet position.Ironically electing an Independent will make the the three main parties take us more serious and might make them think that they need to groom someone from Waterford for a long term senior position.

Sully

fuzzy dunlop wrote: »

Good Assessment. Nothing short of a guarantee written in blood that Coffey or Deasy will be made a senior minister will warrent a vote for Fine Gael.But the fact is Coffey and Deasy are going nowhere.Coffey is unheard of outside of Waterford and his acheivements for Waterford consist of writing a letter to the local newspapers every couple of weeks with straw man stories.

Fine Gael have huge problems at the moment and Enda Kenny or any other FG leader can't upset the apple cart by giving a johnny come lately like Paudie Coffey a cabinet position.Ironically electing an Independent will make the the three main parties take us more serious and might make them think that they need to groom someone from Waterford for a long term senior position.

A guarantee you wont get. From any party. Deasy seems to have blown his chance, at the very least under Kenny, and Paudie is widely recognised within the party and outside of the party as being a person to bring a ministerial position for Waterford. But who knows, no party will guarantee anyone. Most of FG would assume someone in Waterford will get a ministerial position, maybe not immediately, so leadership debate or not it wont make any difference bar "Ill vote for you, if".

As for not being known - it depends where you go. He would probably be more known in parts of the county then the city. His articles to the paper, which a lot of people think is a good thing (from any politician), would be a drop in the ocean as he is fairly well active on the ground. Iv heard many a story from people who went to him with an issue and he got it sorted. On the ground, in a lot of places, Paudie is well known and well liked. Recongised by national media also.

He is currently a senator - not a huge amount a senator can bring to the city.

Independents are only useful, as I have said many times, when numbers are tight. There is not a chance the people of Waterford will look moreso at an independent (look at Joe Conway, running in the byelection and virtually unheard of) over a party. They will vote either Labour or FG candidates in as they have a much better chance of securing something for Waterford. Halligan might be popular in the city, in local elections, but he has to secure the county and its a big area. Likewise, I cant see a new party needing much support. Labour and FG/FF will do it together.

jayboi

I can honestly say there is no one who would inspire me with confidence!

Each is a bad as the last.

I can only but hope that Mr Tayto will run in our constituency.

Seriously FF haven’t a hope in a general election, in the local elections only one candidate got in and that was on the 8th or 9th count, I reckon they might of only left him in cos they felt sorry for him think he got in the region for 350 votes and he was the star performer???
Unless FF have a huge support in the county and run a single candidate two the most they haven’t a prayer...and rightly so

fuzzy dunlop

Sully wrote: »

A guarantee you wont get. From any party. Deasy seems to have blown his chance, at the very least under Kenny, and Paudie is widely recognised within the party and outside of the party as being a person to bring a ministerial position for Waterford. But who knows, no party will guarantee anyone. Most of FG would assume someone in Waterford will get a ministerial position, maybe not immediately, so leadership debate or not it wont make any difference bar "Ill vote for you, if".

As for not being known - it depends where you go. He would probably be more known in parts of the county then the city. His articles to the paper, which a lot of people think is a good thing (from any politician), would be a drop in the ocean as he is fairly well active on the ground. Iv heard many a story from people who went to him with an issue and he got it sorted. On the ground, in a lot of places, Paudie is well known and well liked. Recongised by national media also.

He is currently a senator - not a huge amount a senator can bring to the city.

Independents are only useful, as I have said many times, when numbers are tight. There is not a chance the people of Waterford will look moreso at an independent (look at Joe Conway, running in the byelection and virtually unheard of) over a party. They will vote either Labour or FG candidates in as they have a much better chance of securing something for Waterford. Halligan might be popular in the city, in local elections, but he has to secure the county and its a big area. Likewise, I cant see a new party needing much support. Labour and FG/FF will do it together.

There is absolutely no recognition or assumption within FG that Waterford is likely to get a cabinet position. There is no objective evidence whatsoever that this is the case.

Paudie Coffey is an unknown outside of Waterford. He’s only known in Waterford because he is a non-elected political appointee who sends badly written “straw man” letters into the paper. Try writing a letter into any of the papers. Anyone can do it. His letters are just copy and paste jobs from the Fine Gael website. Outside of this he has no media presence. Contrast this with Dan Boyle who is on Television almost once a week. If FG had any intent for Coffey he would be some sort of spokesman but he isn’t. As for Coffey getting things sorted out for people…so what. We are talking about a political strategy not payment for shoneenism.

Anything can happen at the next election. The numbers may be tight an independent may be needed. But that is not the point. An independent will send the message to the big parties that the Waterford vote will not be cheap and it will be another serious constituency like Dublin South East. This is essentially what happened in the eighties. We gave one of the seats to a candidate that was outside the main three and ended up with a senior cabinet minister for a decade.

Joey leBlanc

Count me in! Vote for Coffee everyone!! Freshly ground of course none of that instant chit.

Smiley Burnett

FACT--some of the biggest supporters of a University in Waterford are Kilkenny politicians.

Smiley Burnett

fuzzy dunlop wrote: »

There is absolutely no recognition or assumption within FG that Waterford is likely to get a cabinet position. There is no objective evidence whatsoever that this is the case.

Paudie Coffey is an unknown outside of Waterford. He’s only known in Waterford because he is a non-elected political appointee who sends badly written “straw man” letters into the paper. Try writing a letter into any of the papers. Anyone can do it. His letters are just copy and paste jobs from the Fine Gael website. Outside of this he has no media presence. Contrast this with Dan Boyle who is on Television almost once a week. If FG had any intent for Coffey he would be some sort of spokesman but he isn’t. As for Coffey getting things sorted out for people…so what. We are talking about a political strategy not payment for shoneenism.

Anything can happen at the next election. The numbers may be tight an independent may be needed. But that is not the point. An independent will send the message to the big parties that the Waterford vote will not be cheap and it will be another serious constituency like Dublin South East. This is essentially what happened in the eighties. We gave one of the seats to a candidate that was outside the main three and ended up with a senior cabinet minister for a decade.

Practically half the constuencies in Ireland returned an Independent TD in 2002 and what good did it do them?? ZILCH, ZERO, NADA, NOTHING!!

We ended up with no opposition and a Govt that ramped up public spending on the back of a property bubble!

The Ind TDs are some of the biggest gombeens in the dail!!

Sully

fuzzy dunlop wrote: »

There is absolutely no recognition or assumption within FG that Waterford is likely to get a cabinet position. There is no objective evidence whatsoever that this is the case.

When Kenny was in one of his recent WIT visits, he did an interview with WLRFM and they put the question to him about Coffey and Deasy. Based on that alone, Coffey has a higher chance under Kenny. Anyone with a bit of political knowledge, never mind internal private talks, would know that he is widely recognized as being a very good candidate, popular and well liked. That he would be most likely to be considered down this area. Even national media think he will secure a seat here.

Paudie Coffey is an unknown outside of Waterford. He’s only known in Waterford because he is a non-elected political appointee who sends badly written “straw man” letters into the paper. Try writing a letter into any of the papers. Anyone can do it. His letters are just copy and paste jobs from the Fine Gael website. Outside of this he has no media presence. Contrast this with Dan Boyle who is on Television almost once a week. If FG had any intent for Coffey he would be some sort of spokesman but he isn’t. As for Coffey getting things sorted out for people…so what. We are talking about a political strategy not payment for shoneenism.

Firstly, you seem to completely ignore my previous post. A lot of elected and "non-elected" politicians write to the media as letters. Its a way of communicating with the people and many people, would you believe, recognize the name through this and agree with statements etc made. There his own releases, created by himself. They appear on Facebook, Twitter and the Fine Gael website (hence, you see them there). Other politicians, including well liked and popular elected TDs, do this. From all sides of politics. Its a common way of communicating with the people including regular newsletters dropped door to door. You may not agree, but your one voter out of thousands. Nobody claims these letters are printed only for them. I have no idea what world you are living in. PS. Paudie is more known in the county then the city. Its improving due to his constant being out there, meeting the people, knocking on doors etc. over the last number of months. He isn't even from the city, yet apparently he is only known here? What "non elected politican" who seems to just write "straw man letters" according to you, could possibly be well known in the city if he has absolutely no recognition, his letters are daft, and he was never elected?!?

Secondly, how many senators are well known and easily get elected in a general election, but don't use the Dan Boyle type of politics? Dan, and some others, use twitter regularly to post controversial statements. The media love him, because he will comment on pretty much anything. He is outspoken and a media whore. He has no guarantee of getting elected in the next government. He is a face well known around Ireland only because of that. Similarly, but to a lesser extinct, Deasy is. If he goes against the party line, its big news for the media.

Anything can happen at the next election. The numbers may be tight an independent may be needed. But that is not the point. An independent will send the message to the big parties that the Waterford vote will not be cheap and it will be another serious constituency like Dublin South East. This is essentially what happened in the eighties. We gave one of the seats to a candidate that was outside the main three and ended up with a senior cabinet minister for a decade.

So, eh, we elected independents only. Then a party gets the full numbers to secure a government without Joe Bloggs and Billy Noshow in Waterford. They can shout all they like and demand this that and the other - but there not part of the cabinet. There in opposition. In one ear, out the other.

Or.. We elected Paudie and John. Or some Labour candidate. They support the upgrade. They can represent us in the Dail, speak with the party leader, call on the party to act on its policy and try secure a front bench position. They have a lot more power then Joe Bloggs and Billy Noshow who were not needed to form a government.

I see what you are thinking and you seem to be suggesting you have no faith in the party politics for Waterford. Its a big gamble to take and as it stands, the odds of what you think will happen are very low. Waterford would be much better to elect a candidate from a party with a strong chance of getting our voice heard either in the back benches or the front benches. Party power is what we needed. Not one man.

Independents at the moment are whats holding this country up. They refuse to let FF drop and vote with them on items such as the budget, the banks, and the by-elections. To the disgust of many of the electorate. Perhaps they are getting well looked after for it - but there is absolutely no guarantee that an independent TD in Waterford, if elected, could secure a better deal for Waterford. None. FF wont give us University because they fear the backlash from other Universities and ITs. Plus they care little for us. FG have already said they will. Labour, I think, have a very similar policy. The only reason FF will be in the next government is if Labour do a deal with them.

deisemum

Well Brendan Kenneally better not rely on his former neighbours in Viewmount to vote for him. His name is mud round here. All he's interested in is money. I wont print what I think of him and none of it is good.

fuzzy dunlop

Sully wrote: »

When Kenny was in one of his recent WIT visits, he did an interview with WLRFM and they put the question to him about Coffey and Deasy. Based on that alone, Coffey has a higher chance under Kenny. Anyone with a bit of political knowledge, never mind internal private talks, would know that he is widely recognized as being a very good candidate, popular and well liked. That he would be most likely to be considered down this area. Even national media think he will secure a seat here.

Shock Horror! Visiting opposition leader tells local electorate what he thinks they want to hear! This is absolutely meaningless unless it’s consistently repeated in a national forum but it isn’t. In fact Kenny or FG have never mentioned Coffey even once as a prospect for service in the cabinet. Anyone with bit of political knowledge will know that Paudie Coffey is benefiting from disillusionment with the Government rather than his own ability. Paudie Coffey’s good fortune is that he is not FF not because he is Paudie Coffey.

Sully wrote: »

Firstly, you seem to completely ignore my previous post. A lot of elected and "non-elected" politicians write to the media as letters. Its a way of communicating with the people and many people, would you believe, recognize the name through this and agree with statements etc made. There his own releases, created by himself. They appear on Facebook, Twitter and the Fine Gael website (hence, you see them there). Other politicians, including well liked and popular elected TDs, do this. From all sides of politics. Its a common way of communicating with the people including regular newsletters dropped door to door. You may not agree, but your one voter out of thousands. Nobody claims these letters are printed only for them. I have no idea what world you are living in.

I’ll tell you what world I’m living in. It’s called reality and you need a reality check if you think Paudie Coffey is going to get a cabinet position in the next government. Btw I didn’t ignore your post! You said Coffey was widely recognised but the fact is that he is an unknown outside Waterford. Also Enda Kenny is a lame duck leader and it will be virtually impossible for him to appoint Coffey ahead of around thirty other Fine Gael veterans with a national profile which Coffey hasn’t got and who have won seats for a second third or fourth time. You also seem to be intentionally missing the point. Coffey writing to the local Newspaper is nothing. Any crank can do this. He is preaching to the converted regurgitating what we already know just so he can raise his profile in the constituency he is running in. And contrary to what you said they are not his own releases they are re-release of positions put forward by FG front benchers usually in the Irish Times and a year ahead of Paudie Coffey.

Sully wrote: »

So, eh, we elected independents only. Then a party gets the full numbers to secure a government without Joe Bloggs and Billy Noshow in Waterford. They can shout all they like and demand this that and the other - but there not part of the cabinet. There in opposition. In one ear, out the other.

I never said elect Independents only. I said elect one Independent outside the three main parties which are indistinguishable when it comes to ideology. It sends the message that Waterford is playing hardball. Also Paudie Coffey is Joe Bloggs or is that Billy Nobody?If a party does get the full numbers and Paudie is there it reduces the influence of each politician in that party. This is a mathematical fact. It is also made worse that he is a newcomer who will be expected to serve his time on the back benches.

Sully wrote: »

Or.. We elected Paudie and John. Or some Labour candidate. They support the upgrade. They can represent us in the Dail, speak with the party leader, call on the party to act on its policy and try secure a front bench position. They have a lot more power then Joe Bloggs and Billy Noshow who were not needed to form a government.

You really haven’t a clue how Irish parliamentary politics works. Paudie Coffey won’t be in cabinet he will be a backbencher. One of about 70. This will mean he will be in no position to make demands, as he will not be needed if he leaves the party whip, which he won’t. But all this is academic because it’s a general election that might not happen for 18 months. The next game for us is a bye election with an opportunity of a lifetime to hold a government by the balls. This is another mathematical fact.

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

Practically half the constuencies in Ireland returned an Independent TD in 2002 and what good did it do them?? ZILCH, ZERO, NADA, NOTHING!!

We ended up with no opposition and a Govt that ramped up public spending on the back of a property bubble!

The Ind TDs are some of the biggest gombeens in the dail!!

This is 2010 and there is only three Independents in the Dáil supporting the government. If Tony Gregory could get 100 million in 1982 out of the government for his constituency we can push a few issues over the line at a tenth of the price in real terms. Jackie Healy Ray whether you like him or not has had the confidence of his constituency for years as has Michael Lowry.

Bards

fuzzy dunlop wrote: »

Shock Horror! Visiting opposition leader tells local electorate what he thinks they want to hear! This is absolutely meaningless unless it’s consistently repeated in a national forum but it isn’t. In fact Kenny or FG have never mentioned Coffey even once as a prospect for service in the cabinet. Anyone with bit of political knowledge will know that Paudie Coffey is benefiting from disillusionment with the Government rather than his own ability. Paudie Coffey’s good fortune is that he is not FF not because he is Paudie Coffey.



I’ll tell you what world I’m living in. It’s called reality and you need a reality check if you think Paudie Coffey is going to get a cabinet position in the next government. Btw I didn’t ignore your post! You said Coffey was widely recognised but the fact is that he is an unknown outside Waterford. Also Enda Kenny is a lame duck leader and it will be virtually impossible for him to appoint Coffey ahead of around thirty other Fine Gael veterans with a national profile which Coffey hasn’t got and who have won seats for a second third or fourth time. You also seem to be intentionally missing the point. Coffey writing to the local Newspaper is nothing. Any crank can do this. He is preaching to the converted regurgitating what we already know just so he can raise his profile in the constituency he is running in. And contrary to what you said they are not his own releases they are re-release of positions put forward by FG front benchers usually in the Irish Times and a year ahead of Paudie Coffey.


I never said elect Independents only. I said elect one Independent outside the three main parties which are indistinguishable when it comes to ideology. It sends the message that Waterford is playing hardball. Also Paudie Coffey is Joe Bloggs or is that Billy Nobody?If a party does get the full numbers and Paudie is there it reduces the influence of each politician in that party. This is a mathematical fact. It is also made worse that he is a newcomer who will be expected to serve his time on the back benches.



You really haven’t a clue how Irish parliamentary politics works. Paudie Coffey won’t be in cabinet he will be a backbencher. One of about 70. This will mean he will be in no position to make demands, as he will not be needed if he leaves the party whip, which he won’t. But all this is academic because it’s a general election that might not happen for 18 months. The next game for us is a bye election with an opportunity of a lifetime to hold a government by the balls. This is another mathematical fact.

This is 2010 and there is only three Independents in the Dáil supporting the government. If Tony Gregory could get 100 million in 1982 out of the government for his constituency we can push a few issues over the line at a tenth of the price in real terms. Jackie Healy Ray whether you like him or not has had the confidence of his constituency for years as has Michael Lowry.

exactly - just look what FG did to George Lee

what's needed is a brand new Political Party - not made up of exisitng Political hacks- but young dynamic people with vision and the guts to stand up to the unions and do what is in the best interests of Ireland

Smiley Burnett

fuzzy dunlop wrote: »

Shock Horror! Visiting opposition leader tells local electorate what he thinks they want to hear! This is absolutely meaningless unless it’s consistently repeated in a national forum but it isn’t. In fact Kenny or FG have never mentioned Coffey even once as a prospect for service in the cabinet. Anyone with bit of political knowledge will know that Paudie Coffey is benefiting from disillusionment with the Government rather than his own ability. Paudie Coffey’s good fortune is that he is not FF not because he is Paudie Coffey.



I’ll tell you what world I’m living in. It’s called reality and you need a reality check if you think Paudie Coffey is going to get a cabinet position in the next government. Btw I didn’t ignore your post! You said Coffey was widely recognised but the fact is that he is an unknown outside Waterford. Also Enda Kenny is a lame duck leader and it will be virtually impossible for him to appoint Coffey ahead of around thirty other Fine Gael veterans with a national profile which Coffey hasn’t got and who have won seats for a second third or fourth time. You also seem to be intentionally missing the point. Coffey writing to the local Newspaper is nothing. Any crank can do this. He is preaching to the converted regurgitating what we already know just so he can raise his profile in the constituency he is running in. And contrary to what you said they are not his own releases they are re-release of positions put forward by FG front benchers usually in the Irish Times and a year ahead of Paudie Coffey.


I never said elect Independents only. I said elect one Independent outside the three main parties which are indistinguishable when it comes to ideology. It sends the message that Waterford is playing hardball. Also Paudie Coffey is Joe Bloggs or is that Billy Nobody?If a party does get the full numbers and Paudie is there it reduces the influence of each politician in that party. This is a mathematical fact. It is also made worse that he is a newcomer who will be expected to serve his time on the back benches.



You really haven’t a clue how Irish parliamentary politics works. Paudie Coffey won’t be in cabinet he will be a backbencher. One of about 70. This will mean he will be in no position to make demands, as he will not be needed if he leaves the party whip, which he won’t. But all this is academic because it’s a general election that might not happen for 18 months. The next game for us is a bye election with an opportunity of a lifetime to hold a government by the balls. This is another mathematical fact.

This is 2010 and there is only three Independents in the Dáil supporting the government. If Tony Gregory could get 100 million in 1982 out of the government for his constituency we can push a few issues over the line at a tenth of the price in real terms. Jackie Healy Ray whether you like him or not has had the confidence of his constituency for years as has Michael Lowry.

what did healy-rae and lowry get in return for their support??? please tell us, because those deals have remained a secret!!!
did healy-rae deliver more to south kerry as an independent than john odonoghue did as a cabinet minister? did he fuk!!

Deise Tom

Partizan wrote: »

There wont be a bye-election. The next election we will see will be the biggie.

Here's my prediction in a General Election:

Deasy FG (elected 1st count)
O'Shea Lab (elected 2nd count)
Coffey FG (Elected 3rd count)
Kenneally/A.N.Other FF (scrapes in)

---

the rest:
Cullinane SF - 3,500
Halligan Ind - 3,400
WP - 1,500
Conway Ind - 1,500
PBP - 800
Greens - 500

Could not argue with that order. Maybe they might need more counts that you say however. Labour getting in just behind John Deay will depend on whether Brian O'Shea runs or not. If he dont i think it could make things interesting. I dont think people in the county know enough about Seamus Ryan and i dont think anyone outside the Dungarvan Town Boundary knows enough about Ciara Conway. I think most people rather to vote for the devil they know rather than the one they dont know.

Deise Tom

Smiley Burnett wrote: »

Brendan Kenneally a junior minister????!!! In what Government???

I honestly dont know the answer to this but was Brendan a junior minister in the past or am i thinking of Jackie Fahey.

Deise Tom

Gardner wrote: »

Guys,
There is some awful rubbish been sprouted on this topic. If a by election is called in the morning its between 3 candidates. Coffey, Halligan and Ryan.

What benefit does Waterford get out of electing any of those 3?
Little with Coffey, back bench in the opposition. Ryan again like Coffey will offer nothing other than a back bench spot! Halligan as an independent will be seen by the government as an opportunity to stay in power and add a bit of stability especially if Lenihan comes into power. Lenihan will want to see out the full term to get his profile up and he may want to broker a deal with Halligan.

Coffey will take the seat but it will be a waste of time electing him.

Now as for a general election. I think the next government will be a FG/LAB/IND government with Kenny or Bruton in charge with Lenihan in charge of the opposition. It doesn’t matter who Waterford elect because we will not have a minister or a junior minister! Deasy is unpopular within the party and Coffey hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight in the senate plus there is a lot more people ahead of him in line within FG and LAB.

This is what I think is needed for the people of Waterford. The independents need to come together as one. Agree on one candidate and stand him/her. I appeal to Cha O Neill, Mary Roche, Dick Roche, Davy Daniels and John Halligan of Waterford city council and the independents of the County Council, UNITE under the one banner and get what’s best for Waterford. The evidence is quiet clear that it works (Lowry, Gregory, Healy-Rae).

Prediction:
FF will get one seat here, it’s a banker. In the last general election FF received 23,025 1st pref votes between their 3 candidates. If FF are going to run 1 candidate then he is a banker. If the second is chosen to run, it will be Gary Wyse, he will prob poll 3-4k but still there first choice Kenneally will get in.

FG choose to run 3 candidates also in 2007 which achieved 13,552 1st pref votes. Deasy will hold the vote in west and will be elected on the 1st count. Coffey on the other hand will come very close to taking a seat.

Lab no matter who they run will take a seat.

So

Deasy FG
Kenneally FF
O Shea/ Ryan Lab
Coffey FG/ Halligan Ind

Deasy 10,000
O Shea/ Ryan 8000
Kenneally 6700
Coffey 6500
Halligan 5000
Wyse 3700
Cullinane 3200
Greens 900
Conway 800
PBP 600
Walsh WP 500
Others 500
Spoilt 400

That gives us a turnout of about 66-68%

The transfer of SF towards Halligan especially with the City vote could be very interesting. WP vote won’t matter as they have no candidate to run and if Walsh runs they will be lucky to poll above 500 especially when Halligan only got 1700 in last election and he was a good candidate.

So what way would I vote?? If FG guarantee John Deasy a Ministers spot then I would give him my number one, but if this is not the case which is 99% certain then I will vote Halligan no.1 as the independent candidate. Waterford have nothing to lose by giving him a seat because if the usual 4 get in then it’s going to be the same old story!

Fair fecks to you predicting what each canditate will get in votes. Any chance you could tell us now what the numbers will be in the lotto tomorrow night.

I notice as well that you and indeed many others are saying that most of those that will be running in any election are from or are coming close to the city area. They will have to get a hell of a vote from the city if they are to reach the numbers you say because people in the county, especially the more further west you go know little if anything about the city councillors etc. They may know some few things about the likes of David Cullinane, but people like John Halligan, most dont care one bit about him.

Deise Tom

Sully wrote: »

As I said, it depends on the markup of the government and how desperate things are. As it stands, its either Lab/FF or FF/FG coalition.

Cant see a FF/FG Coalition, dont think many could to be honest, as for FF/Lab that will only happen with a change of leader in Labour unless Guilmore is a total hypacriate. He has said often enough he wont go into coalition with FF.

Deise Tom

Max Powers wrote: »

I would rather FG get in granted by themselves without Lab as i think they are a joke, in that case they might need a few independents but it looks like in every poll that neither is big enough to go it alone.

So would i.

Deise Tom

dayshah wrote: »

Have we ever elected more than 1 FG TD?

I'd say much of the FF vote in Waterford would swing Lab and independent rather than FG.

Yes.

1918 Election. City area I Nationalist Candiate elected, County Area, 1 SF Canditate Elected.

1921 Election. (Waterford and East Tipperary) 5 S.F. elected.

1922 Ekection (Waterford and East Tipperary) 1 Pro Treaty, 2 Lab, 1 Anti Treaty, I Farmers Party.

1923 (Waterford) 1 republican, 1 Ind, 1 Lab, 1 Farmers.

1927 (First Election). 1 Ind, I C.G. 1 FF, 1 SF

1927 (second election). 2 FF, 1 CG, 1 Ind

1932 2 CG, 2 FF

1933 1 National Centre Party, 1 CG, 2 FF

1937 2 FF, 2 FG

1938 2 FF, 2 FG

1943 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind

1944 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind

1948 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

1951 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

1954 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

1957 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

1961 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

1965 1 FF, 1 Fg, 1 Lab

1969 2FF, 1 Fg

1973 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

1977 2 FF, 2 FG,

1981 2 FF, 2 FG,

1982 (First Election), 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF/Wp

1982 (second election), 2 FF, 2 FG

1987 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 PD,

1989 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

1992 1 Lab, 1 Fg, 1 FF, 1 PD

1997 2 FF, 1 Fg, 1 Lab

2002 2 FF, 1FG, 1 Lab

2007 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

merlante

Just thought I'd do some nonsense calculations on a possible FF vote for the next election.

I think that for the FF figure you have to go back to 1997, prior to Cullen the minister, to get a good feel for what the FF vote minus the ministerial vote is, then look at individuals and then apply a swing. The FF vote in '97 was around 16,000 between 3 candidates, so lets take it that the ministerial vote was worth around 7,000.

If you look at that 16,000, there were 3 figures with a decent profile that generate that total: Kenneally, Cullen and Wilkinson. If you had just Kenneally and Wyse now, you'd have one less vote winner, a guy past his sell by date and a virtual unknown. If you subtract 2,000 for that lack of a third candidate, 750 for the decline of Kenneally and another 750 for the fact that Wilkinson is '97 was probably that bit far ahead of a Wyse in '10 (pure speculation I know -- based on the more solid FF vote in the county and conservative losses) from the 16,000 , you're left with 12,500, due to the change in personnel alone.

Now, if you apply a swing to the 12,500, what are we left with? Let's say if the FF vote of '97 were to switch with the FG vote of the same year, FF would drop by 10% of the electorate, which would be a loss of 28% of their own vote. Applying that to the 12,500, would give 9,000. You split that between Kenneally and Wyse and get something like 6,000 and 3,000, or 5,500 and 3,500.

Hard to take but FF still get a handy seat, even at their lowest ebb, nationally and locally. Of course, if some candidate were to pop up in the county to challenge them, there might be some mathematical chances of no FFer in Waterford.

Deise Tom

My own opinion is that as a whole Ireland is over represented with Senators, TD's, County Councillors, Town Councillors, City Councillors, Borough Councillors, MEP's etc, and that well over half of them should be done away with, but accept that they cant under present rules.

Just wondering about people saying that Waterford are under represented with TD's right now. I know that there is something in the constitution that says a constituency must have 1 TD for every 30,000 and something else in the same segment about 1 for every 20,000.

I am not quite clear on it actually says. Does it mean that we have one TD when we reach 30,000 people, 2 when we reach 60,000 etc or do we get one for between one person and 29,999 and another for between 30,000 and 59,999 etc.

If it means that you must reach 30,000 to have one td, reach 60,000 for two td's etc, then we are not under represented according to the 2006 census when the population of Waterford City and County was 107,961. Maybe it is a case that the whole country is over represented and we should start culling a few td's right now instead of looking for bye-elections.

I know i am coming across as more than a bit confusing right now, but hopefully people will understand what i am saying, or maybe set the record straight.

Deise Tom

merlante wrote: »

Hard to take but FF still get a handy seat, even at their lowest ebb, nationally and locally. Of course, if some candidate were to pop up in the county to challenge them, there might be some mathematical chances of no FFer in Waterford.

What are the chances of that happening.