fkiely's log

fkiely

Said I’d try this again. Just your simple log, no real novel strategy or tactics behind it.

Shall mostly be football with the onus on Premiership, Championship, LOI and La Liga. I’ll try and put up explanations when I can but often I just don’t have the time.

Anyway, we’ll give it a go. Any comments or feedback is more than welcome.

Bank: 100
Bets: 0
Won: 0
P/L: 0

fkiely

Right, first night's football bets. Might have a bit on the tennis or American Football later if i can find something I like.

20 on Bohs -1 and Shamrock Rovers at 2.91

15 single on over 2.5 in the Stoke - Villa game at 2.20

fkiely

First bet is a bit of a disaster with Rovers already two down.

Going to have another 20 on over 2.5 in the Stoke game at 2.38

hitman79

fkiely wrote: »

First bet is a bit of a disaster with Rovers already two down.

Going to have another 20 on over 2.5 in the Stoke game at 2.38

Hard to believe Dundalk are 2 up. To be honest i would have went for under 2.5 in the Villa game. Two average teams who dont score many goals. 1 goal will win it i reckon. Best of luck with it tho

fkiely

hitman79 wrote: »

Hard to believe Dundalk are 2 up. To be honest i would have went for under 2.5 in the Villa game. Two average teams who dont score many goals. 1 goal will win it i reckon. Best of luck with it tho

Incredible stuff, 3-0 at this stage! Can't really predict that.

Will be interesting, so far it's looking like you're right with the Villa game. Cheers though.

fkiely

Very lucky with that last minute Stoke goal but not complaining!

20 on Bohs -1 and Shamrock Rovers at 2.91 - Returns 0.00

15 single on over 2.5 in the Stoke - Villa game at 2.20 - Returns 33.00

Going to have another 20 on over 2.5 in the Stoke game at 2.38 - Returns 47.50

Bank: 125.50
Bets: 3
Won: 2
P/L: +25.50

Gavin "shels"

hitman79 wrote: »

Hard to believe Dundalk are 2 up.

The last game Shams lost in the League was up in Oriel against Dundalk, Dundalk were 5/1 to win the match earlier and I was tempted but bottled it!

fkiely

Gavin shels wrote: »

The last game Shams lost in the League was up in Oriel against Dundalk, Dundalk were 5/1 to win the match earlier and I was tempted but bottled it!

Would have been a superb call. Really didn't see this coming to be honest, should of taken a bit more notice after Dundalk's game against Drogs on Friday. Nevermind the win, but 5-1! Insane...

fkiely

Going to have 5.50 on San Diego -4.5 at 1.91

hitman79

fkiely wrote: »

Very lucky with that last minute Stoke goal but not complaining!

20 on Bohs -1 and Shamrock Rovers at 2.91 - Returns 0.00

15 single on over 2.5 in the Stoke - Villa game at 2.20 - Returns 33.00

Going to have another 20 on over 2.5 in the Stoke game at 2.38 - Returns 47.50

Bank: 125.50
Bets: 3
Won: 2
P/L: +25.50

Fair play..good nights work...Reckon you owe Huth a pint

fkiely

hitman79 wrote: »

Fair play..good nights work...Reckon you owe Huth a pint

Probably owe him a bit more than that...

fkiely

Poor call on San Diego last night, rash.

Anyway you live and learn.

Bank: 120
Bets: 3
Won: 2
P/L: +20

Couple I like tonight.

20 on Swansea and Sheff Utd at 2.78
20 on Bursaspor at 2.70
20 Man Utd -1 and over 2.5 goals in the Lyon - Schalke game at 3.15

fkiely

Terrible night so far. Last bet of the night Werder and Copenhagen to win in play at 7.26

Edit that's 10 on it

fkiely

All losses tonight, wipes out half my bank. Some poor calls, will have to work harder in future.


Bank: 50
Bets: 7
Won: 2
P/L: -50

fkiely

Right, three bets tonight.

25 on Real to win to nil at 2.10
10 on Marseille and Arsenal -1 at 3.08
15 on the Paddy Power special of Chelsea, AC, Arsenal and Real to win at 3.20

hitman79

fkiely wrote: »

Right, three bets tonight.

25 on Real to win to nil at 2.10
10 on Marseille and Arsenal -1 at 3.08
15 on the Paddy Power special of Chelsea, AC, Arsenal and Real to win at 3.20

Another good nights work...Fair play. Only Marseille stopped you from winning all 3 bets.

fkiely

hitman79 wrote: »

Another good nights work...Fair play. Only Marseille stopped you from winning all 3 bets.

Cheers fella, appreciated. Shame about Marseille, strange game from what I saw, they hit the post around 3 or 4 times and were all over Spartack but conceded on the counter. One to remember in future.

Only back to the start now after last night's horror.

25 on Real to win to nil at 2.10 - Returns 52.50
10 on Marseille and Arsenal -1 at 3.08 - Returns 0.00
15 on the Paddy Power special of Chelsea, AC, Arsenal and Real to win at 3.20 - Returns 48

Bank: 100.50
Bets: 10
Won: 4
P/L: +.50

fkiely

10 on Juventus (losing 1-0) and Atletico in play at 3.36

fkiely

Juve now 2 down, looks like a rash bet.

Two more tonight.

15 on Porto and Liverpool -1 at 3.80
25 on Liverpool to win to nil at 2.10

fkiely

10 on Juventus (losing 1-0) and Atletico in play at 3.36 Returns 0.0015 on Porto and Liverpool -1 at 3.80 Returns 57.0025 on Liverpool to win to nil at 2.10 Returns 0.00Bank: 107.50Bets: 13Won: 5P/L: +7.50

fkiely

20 on Doncaster at 2.20
17.50 on Ulster -7 at 1.91

fkiely

20 on Doncaster at 2.20 Returns 0.00
17.50 on Ulster -7 at 1.91 Returns 33.41

Bank: 103.41
Bets: 14
Won: 6
P/L: +3.41

fkiely

30 on Blackburn at 2.00
13.41 on Villa and Blackburn double at 3.45

fkiely

15 on the draw in the Stoke - West Ham at 3.50
10 on a Sheff United and Barnsley double at 4.20

fkiely

Poor enough day.

20 on Sporting Gijon at 2.50
15 on the Osperys over 18.5 points at 1.83

fkiely

Was so busy yesterday never actually got to put the last two bets on even though I had them up, odd.

Anyway poor day in general but we'll keep it going. Potentially good day ahead, plenty of opportunity.

30 on Blackburn at 2.00 Returns 0.00
13.41 on Villa and Blackburn double at 3.45 Returns 0.00
15 on the draw in the Stoke - West Ham at 3.50 Returns 52.50
10 on a Sheff United and Barnsley double at 4.20 Returns 0.00

Bank: 87.50
Bets: 18
Won: 7
P/L: -13.50

10 on Bari at 2.50

fkiely

20 on Both teams to score in the Man Utd - Liverpool game at 2.00
7.50 on Vidic to be booked at 2.40

fkiely

15 on over 2.5 in the Parma - Genoa game at 2.00

fkiely

15 on Down at 2.88
20 on Chelsea -3 at 2.70
20 on Malouda anytime at 1.80

fkiely

30 on over 3.5 in the A. Madrid - Barca game at 2.25
10 on Atletico win at 4.50

Also 10 on Packers (-12.5) and Cowboys (-7) double at 3.64

fkiely

Gambling hungover is always bad news! Anyway was a bit unlucky with a few of those bets yesterday, 3 goals in the first half an hour in the Barca game and none thereafter, 2 disallowed goals in the Genoa game which finished 1-1 and Down potentially throwing the game away. Ah well, you live and you learn.

Would love to have the discipline not to gamble after a night out...

Bank: 70
Bets: 27
Won: 10
P/L: -30

fkiely

20 on over 2.5 in the Nacional - Porto game at 1.91
10 on Deportivo at 2.38
10 on Dundalk at 2.30

fkiely

Adding another 170 to my bank to make it 200.

Bank: 200
Bets: 30
Won: 10
P/L: -70

25 on Bilbao at 1.91

fkiely

20 on Peterborough at 2.70
35 on Arsenal at 2.50
20 on Stoke at 2.30

fkiely

Two more.

25 on Real -3 on the corner handicap at 2.00
15 on Real -2 at 2.30

fkiely

18.23 on Innsbruck at 11/10 and 50 on Genoa at 11/10

fkiely

25 on Valencia at 4/5

fkiely

Another 33.28 on Valencia at 10/3

fkiely

Very poor again last night. Really need to sit down and re-evaluate for the weekend.

fkiely

15 on Rovers -1 and Pats double at 3.30
35 on Pompey at 2.75

fkiely

11.25 on the Newcastle Jets at 2.70 in play

fkiely

Man City – Chelsea


Going to go for the draw here today in the early kick off. Both teams have had contrasting fortunes so far this season with Chelsea apparently cruising through their opening fixtures with Mancini already coming under a bit of pressure. It’s a massive test for both side, Chelsea up against one of the better sides in the league for the first time while City up against the side they strive to be. Chelsea really had the upper hand in this fixture, home and away, over the years up until City did the double over them last season. A bit of revenge will be in order from the Chelsea players who’ll be determined not to lose again to City. City drew the second highest amount of games last year and ar a very tough team to beat in the City of Manchester. Mancini sets his team out firstly to not lose, and then to go on and try win the game. Against a side like Chelsea, they’ll have to be at their defensive best to keep things acceptable. Can see Chelsea winning and the price on them is very reasonable but I fancy them to drop their first points of the season today.


20 on the Draw at 9/4

Birmingham - Wolves


There really isn’t much reasoning behind this selection aside from Birmingham’s well known home record and Wigan’s unpredictability. I try to make a point of not betting on matches involving Wigan but I think the price on them is quite generous. They’ve won all three of the last corresponding fixtures and should do the same again.


30 on Birmingham to win at 5/6

Fulham – Everton

All over the draw here today. Two sides which should be equally matched considering recent results and news. Fulham still look like retaining their strong home record under Hughes and it’ll be another tough game for them today. Everton have started the season very poorly as we all know but will be looking to today’s game to try and salvage something. Between the two sides so far this season there’s been ten games and six draws. Neither side will want to lose this so I can see another draw here.


20 on the Draw at 9/4

Cardiff - Millwall

I’ll gladly take the price on Cardiff here regardless of the players, like Bellamy, missing for the home side. It’s obvious Millwall started the season brightly in the Championship but it seems the might be in the process of being found out now. Tough game for away side here and I’d expect a full three points for the home side who should continue their impressive home record.


20 on Cardiff -1 at 21/10

Burnley and Forest

Small double here for me in the Championship. Burnley have done alright since the drop last season and should have enough to see of a poor Bristol City side who have defied all preseason predictions and have really struggled so far. Another side who have started the season poorly has been Nottingham Forest but I reckon they’ll finally get the three points today at home against a Swansea side, who whilst they’ve been playing quite well, still have that fearful stat about playing away hanging over them.



10 on Burnley and Forest double at 3.67

Also going to take a bit of a Serie A double. 15 on Over 2.5 in AC – Genoa and Roma-Inter at 3.30

fkiely

20 on Zenit -1 at 10/11 as well.

fkiely

Another average to poor afternoon.

8.18 Sligo, Innsbruck and Salzburg at 3.83
25 on over 2.5 in the AC Genoa game at 11/10

fkiely

Balance of what I have left (70) on Real -2 at 15/8

fergm

ha, The old giving up the Gambling isn´t working too well for you!