Hurricane IGOR

maquiladora

...IGOR FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 8
Location: 13.7°N 23.5°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

dexter647

another monster on the way i'd say:)

Hal1

dexter647 wrote: »

another monster on the way i'd say:)

It's alive :pac:. *claps of thunder*... /coat

maquiladora

Looking at that turn towards the end of the forecast track, it looks like Igor could just be a fish storm. Long way to go yet though.

Su Campu

He's suffering a little from windshear at the moment but should come through it in the next 24hrs or so and start strengthening

000
WTNT41 KNHC 090837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED. NEITHER SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOR ASCAT MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS
ESTIMATE IS GENEROUS. IGOR COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY BUT
GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING
TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER
OCEAN...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN IN 24 HOUR OR SO. IGOR
IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGESTING THAT IGOR HAS
BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE
CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY. THE STEERING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BEEN QUITE
PERSISTENT AND CONSISTS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE BASIN AND A BROAD TROUGH OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS
STEERING PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
CONTINUE...WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.8N 24.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 14.0N 25.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 15.0N 28.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 31.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 16.5N 34.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 17.0N 40.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 18.0N 44.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 49.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Su Campu

Some nice convection from Igor showing up on the Santa Maria webcam in Cape Verde today

maquiladora

...IGOR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 11
Location: 17.1°N 37.8°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb

dexter647

igor looks heads on to big be a major hurricane next week but the big question is will it pose a risk to land or be just another fish storm

maquiladora

dexter647 wrote: »

igor looks heads on to big be a major hurricane next week but the big question is will it pose a risk to land or be just another fish storm

Good model support for Igor to start to curve NW after a couple of days. It's still too early to know for sure though, he isnt a hurricane yet.

One for Bermuda to watch maybe.

billy the squid

Igor has just been declared a cat 1 hurricane. tis going to be a fish though.

gally74

i hope it tracks over iceland!!!

gally74

i find this site quite good, turn on forecast models,

http://tropical.rbee44.com/

Iancar29

Tis Hurricane Igor now people!

maquiladora

Doesn't look like a threat to the US east coast but Bermuda and perhaps Newfoundland should keep an eye on Igor.

Looks like we will have two new TD's soon too. Invest 92 is at 60% and Invest 93 at 90%.

gally74

now a cat 2

TheInquisitor

Igor has explosively gone from a CAT 1 to a CAT four in less than a day. Its becoming a MONSTER!!

000
WTNT31 KNHC 121806
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
230 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...17.7N 46.1W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

---

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---

AT 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY

---

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

John2009

Beautiful Hurricane

Hooter23

Cat 1 to Cat 4 in less than a day didn't even know that was possible:eek:

dexter647

Wow igor has indeed turned into a beast...TD 12 looks like it could be following soon as well

Birdnuts

Wheres this boyo headed

ronnie3585

Nicely visible here;

maquiladora

Amazing rapid strengthening from Igor today. It should reach its peak in 2 or 3 days and may get to Cat 5 status.

Models :

maquiladora

Classic hurricane

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Classic hurricane

AMAZING! THAT SURE IS SERIOUS LOOKING!

maquiladora

Igor is south is where most of the models wanted him to be at the moment.
Should be starting to turn more northward today though.

gbee

Birdnuts wrote: »

Wheres this boyo headed

Bermuda, and then towards US! How are you enjoying Fiona?

So far this year, but it's far too early to say, Igor has the most potential to be still a storm if and when it hits us.

Fiona took a direct aim at us but had weakened to sub tropical and as good as disappeared and has brought light rain to our shores and light winds.

Igor is worth watching.

Hooter23

On the current model output it shows in about 10 days time the remnants of Hurricane Igor I think headed close to Ireland it re- intensifies as it approaches us :eek: and looks quite violent.
But 10 days is along time and the model output will constantly change but worth keeping an eye on!

dexter647

i think i'll cancel my holiday to bermuda:D... on a seroius note i hope they don't take a direct hit as the present models suggest..

forkassed

maquiladora

Igor looks to have begun his expected turn to the NW.

US east coast looks like it will be safe but Bermuda needs to keep an eye on him.

As for the long term path of Igor and Ireland, well the last two GFS models had the remains of Igor going to either Greenland or Portugal so I wouldn't pay attention to any long term models tracks at the moment! :P

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

Su Campu

http://www.accuweather.com/video/609453429001/amazing-hurricane-igor-satelli.asp

dexter647

Su Campu wrote: »

http://www.accuweather.com/video/609453429001/amazing-hurricane-igor-satelli.asp

Cheers for that..good link:)

dexter647

any ideas of where the remains of igor might be heading next week? Prob way to early to tell i know

maquiladora

dexter647 wrote: »

any ideas of where the remains of igor might be heading next week? Prob way to early to tell i know

Somewhere between Greenland and here. Probably closer to Greenland.

dexter647

maquiladora wrote: »

Somewhere between Greenland and here. Probably closer to Greenland.

More than likely but you never know...

maquiladora

maquiladora

Anyone got good webcam links or tv/radio streams for Bermuda?


AZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

Kippure

maquiladora wrote: »

Anyone got good webcam links or tv/radio streams for Bermuda?


AZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

http://www.bermudashorts.bm/glencam/

munstergirl

www.royalgazette.com Bermuda paper with video links.

www.weather.bm has webcam with pics.

gbee

Nothing is working in Bermuda.

Su Campu

Sustained winds of 45kts now in the western part of Bermuda. AWOS observations here.

And it's not oftern you a TAF like this (wind 75 gusting 95 knots!)

TXKF 190456Z 1904/1924 07025G35KT 8000 -RA BKN014
PROB40 TEMPO 1906/1912 07035G50KT 0800 +SHRA BKN008
BECMG 1906/1910 08035G45KT
BECMG 1912/1915 08045G55KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1912/1921 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 1918/1921 10065G85KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1921/1924 11075G95KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB

Su Campu

Sustained winds of 53kts, gusting 71kts, at Commissioner's Point now.

Interesting TAF for the Airport, showing the eye passing straight overhead between 00-04UTC, with the wind going from southeast 60 gusting 75kts, to variable 5 kts, to southwesterly 60 gusting 75 kts.

TXKF 191152Z 1912/2012 09030G45KT 8000 -RA BKN014 OVC090
PROB40 TEMPO 1912/1915 09040G55KT 0800 +TSRA BKN008CB
PROB30 TMEPO 1912/1918 +FC BKN004CB BECMG 1912/1915 09040G55KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1915/1918 09050G65KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 1915/1918 09050G65KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1918/2010 VRB75G95KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 1918/1920 12060G75KT
BECMG 2000/2003 VRB30KT
PROB30 TEMPO 2000/2004 VRB05KT
BECMG 2003/2005 25060G75KT
BECMG 2008/2010 29050G65KT
PROB40 TEMPO 2008/2010 29060G75KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 2010/2012 30040G55KT
PROB40 TEMPO 2010/2012 29050G65KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB

Su Campu

Justin Collery

Live pics here

http://bernews.com/2010/09/watch-live-hurricane-igor-webcast/

heres hoping for an unevenetlful hurricane

JC

gbee

jcollery wrote: »

Live pics here

http://bernews.com/2010/09/watch-live-hurricane-igor-webcast/

heres hoping for an unevenetlful hurricane

JC

Good and TV live Vid here http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

As long as phone and electricity lasts .... :eek:

bogman

Possible this is going to cause a rain dump later on during the week

thetonynator

Is it ex-Igor yet or still Igor???

Su Campu

It's still Igor, though it's becoming very ragged. The latest radar shows it almost completely knackered on its southern side, with the remains of the eye currently around 150kms southwest of the island, moving northwards. This is the worst case scenario, bringing the strongest of the winds to the island, but hopefully it will break up a bit more in the next few hours.

The westernmost station Commissioner's Point now has sustained winds of 63kts - one knot below hurricane force!

gbee

IGOR has passed Bermuda and I watched into the small hours as the storm got stronger and stronger, only one webcam remained working on Bermuda as some 80% of the island's power was cut.

Strong winds have lashed the island for 24 hours, it was 40 mile off the coast with winds of 75Miles and higher gusts. It did not strengthen as had been predicted and remained a Cat 1.

But from watching the lives feeds I can't imagine what a Cat 5 would be like, I was terrified, yet I could leave the PC and I got tired of the constant wind.

I echo some reports from storm chasers that about half way through a hurricane, one suddenly wants it to just end. It's 10.am in Bermuda as I write and they still have tropical storm-force winds, and as IGOR is lengthening this will last much of the day.

SoulTrader

gbee wrote: »

IGOR has passed Bermuda and I watched into the small hours as the storm got stronger and stronger, only one webcam remained working on Bermuda as some 80% of the island's power was cut.

Strong winds have lashed the island for 24 hours, it was 40 mile off the coast with winds of 75Miles and higher gusts. It did not strengthen as had been predicted and remained a Cat 1.

But from watching the lives feeds I can't imagine what a Cat 5 would be like, I was terrified, yet I could leave the PC and I got tired of the constant wind.

I echo some reports from storm chasers that about half way through a hurricane, one suddenly wants it to just end. It's 10.am in Bermuda as I write and they still have tropical storm-force winds, and as IGOR is lengthening this will last much of the day.

It's fine here now actually. Winds have eased a lot and power is being restored. There are downed power lines and trees, and flooding in parts, but no major damage and thankfully, no loss of life.

M.T. Cranium

Igor has made a brief landfall in southeast Newfoundland, the eye of the storm (still being billed as a cat-1 hurricane) came inland west of Cape Race around 16z and went over St John's about 1630z turning the wind there from a decreasing southerly (only light near the eye) to a strong northerly at the past hour. A little further west in Argentia the wind stayed strong northerly and all parts of southeast Newfoundland have seen heavy, flooding rains of 100-250 mms (4 to 10 inches) in the past 24 hours as Igor collided with a stationary frontal system. The central pressure is 949 mbs. Offshore buoys have seen gusts to near 100 mph and some oil platforms out to the east-south-east of St John's are about to experience cat-2 hurricane winds (they are up fairly high above the sea).

The storm is rapidly transitioning to extra-tropical but actually getting stronger in the process, and may generate some 100 mph wind gusts much like Debbie did in Ireland in 1961. These winds will be howling over the Avalon peninsula all day and also up around Bonavista as the storm tracks n.n.e.

Now it's heading for the south tip of Greenland.