September 2010 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Now that summer is almost over, the warm weather should begin, right?

Anyway, have a go at these six questions before the end of Wed 1st September (entries accepted with penalty on 2nd, then closed tighter than a Greek pension fund).

(1) "IMT" mean temp deg C for the five stations (1961-90 avg is 12.7)

(2) max temp deg C for any met.ie station

(3) min temp deg C for any met.ie station

(4) average rainfall (% of normal) for all reporting stations

(5) average sunshine (% of normal) for all reporting stations

(6) Bonus -- with all sorts of events planned for eastern Ireland on the first weekend, predict the hours of sunshine at Casement on Sunday 5th (to nearest decimal, range 0.0 to 13.0).

Template (mean,max,min,rain%,sun%,sun5)

TheInquisitor

Template (11.5,22,-2,135%,90%,4.5hrs)

pauldry

(13.1,22.8,0.4,155%,84%,6.3hrs)

skipz

(14.5,26.5,-1,130%,85%,5.8hrs)

nacho libre

12.4, 21.7c, 1.7c, 140%, 90%, 5.2hrs

talkabout

(12.1,21.6,-1.0,110%,92%,3.3hrs)

(11.9,18.5,-2.5,120%,75%,2.5)

jd

(13.1,23.1,-1.5,112%,95%,3.9)

M.T. Cranium

13.5, 25.0, -2.1, 80, 125, 6.4

homolumo

13.0, 24.5, -2.0, 85, 121, 6.0

Deep Easterly

(13.3,20.0.9,110,93,3)

M.T, regarding the templete, would you prefer if we included the actual symbols, i.e %, mm, C ?, or is it handier for you if we didn't as I am guessing you may be inputing each forecast directly into Excel?

Joe Public

13.3,26,-1.3,65%,135%,2.4hrs

WolfeIRE

13.2, 23.5c, 1.5c, 105%, 110%, 2hrs

M.T. Cranium

In case anyone's wondering about it, all normal and previously stated rules apply to any really low temperatures recorded on 1st of September. Hopefully there will be none, but in theory any entrant has the option of editing their prediction to include events on the first of September as they see fit.

Entrants on the 2nd would be subject to the usual penalty, and nobody who enters on the 1st in this or any other month has the option of editing after midnight (or whenever I do up the table). While you may think this gives people an advantage to enter on the 2nd, I doubt that this would be the case in reality, as the decision you then have to make is whether that value would stand up all month, and whether your score would improve by waiting for it to happen.

If you think there are any unclear situations with that, questions accepted and answered -- in any case, I try for a fair solution to any irregular events.

Strasser

12.5,21.4,-1.2,90%,108%,6.0hrs

12.9, 24.7, -1.8, 112, 101, 5.8

SeaFields

12.1,21.5,-0.6,80%,115%,4.6

200motels

12.9C 24.1C -0.6C 109% 82% 3.1hrs

Rebelbrowser

(13.4, 22.4, -1.8, 79%, 114%, 6.1hrs)

Sponge Bob

13.4, 23.8c, 0.8c, 105%, 122%, 3hrs

Lumi

(12.7,21.1,-1.1,125%,88%,3.5)

nilhg

(12.7,24.7,-1.5,89%,110%,1.5)

dasa29

(12.8, 24.0, -1.4, 80%, 123%, 5.5)

John mac

14.2,26.1,4.3,87,120,4.5

.
.
Hopeful of a nice September.

mickger844posts

13.1,23.7,-2.1,74%,128%,2.5 hrs

Redsunset

11.7, 22, -1.5, 90, 110, 6.5

kindredspirit

12.3°C, 23°C, -1.0°C, 120%, 100%, 7 hrs.

Speak Now

(12.8, 22.2, -0.5, 115%, 95%, 7.1)

gothwalk

(11.7,23.2,0.3,92%,110%,6.3)

thetonynator

12.5, 21.5, -1.9, 90%, 110%, 4.0

waterways

12.3, 23.6, -1.7, 145, 84, 2.7 (about noon)

DOCARCH

13.0c, 23.7c, -1.9c, 93%, 109%, 4.3hrs.

Su Campu

12.8,24.1,-0.1,88,110,5.5

Danno

(1) "IMT" mean temp deg C for the five stations 12.5c

(2) max temp deg C for any met.ie station 22.2c

(3) min temp deg C for any met.ie station -0.2c

(4) average rainfall (% of normal) for all reporting stations 140%

(5) average sunshine (% of normal) for all reporting stations 90%

(6) Bonus -- with all sorts of events planned for eastern Ireland on the first weekend, predict the hours of sunshine at Casement on Sunday 5th (to nearest decimal, range 0.0 to 13.0) 10.2

Speak Now

Shannon started the month with a max of 21.4 yesterday, should be beaten today or tomorrow.

Deep Easterly

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Shannon started the month with a max of 21.4 yesterday, should be beaten today or tomorrow.

I am beginning to think that I under-estimated the final september IMT in my guess :rolleyes:

A quick look at how the "IMR" is doing so far this year.



Running mean chart up to 31st August tells that 2010 continues to be drier than normal across the IMT zone. Annual rainfall percentage on 90.7% of the 61-90 average and significantly lower than the 133.4% at this stage last year. Only Oak Park has a earned a value slightly higher than average at 107%, while Claremorris continues its high rainfall deficit with 2010 percentage on just 84.4%, which is followed closely by Shannon Airport's 85.9%.


Mean Daily Max for September, based on the combined 61-90 average of stations Galway (UCG), Birr and Dublin (Pheonix Park):



A slow but steady decent from late summer into early autumn.

Bring it on.



All data C/O Met Eireann

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts received so far ...

Forecaster ........... IMT ..... max ..... min ..... rain% .... sun% .... sun 5th
________________________________________________________________



skipz ................. 14.5 ..... 26.5 ..... -1.0 ..... 130 ..... 085 ..... 5.8
John mac ........... 14.2 ..... 26.1 ..... +4.3 ..... 087 ..... 120 ..... 4.5
M.T. Cranium ...... 13.5 ..... 25.0 ..... -2.1 ..... 080 ..... 125 ..... 6.4
Rebelbrowser ...... 13.4 ..... 22.4 ..... -1.8 ..... 079 ..... 114 ..... 6.1
Sponge Bob ........ 13.4 ..... 23.8 ..... +0.8 ..... 105 .... 122 ..... 3.0
Deep Easterly ..... 13.3 ..... 20.0 ..... +0.9 ..... 110 ..... 093 ..... 3.0
Joe Public .......... 13.3 ..... 26.0 ..... -1.3 ..... 065 ..... 135 ..... 2.4
WolfeIRE ............ 13.2 ..... 23.5 ..... +1.5 .... 105 ..... 110 ..... 2.0
mickger844posts.. 13.1 ..... 23.7 ..... -2.1 ..... 074 ..... 128 ..... 2.5
pauldry ............. 13.1 ..... 22.8 ..... +0.4 ..... 155 ..... 084 ..... 6.3
jd ..................... 13.1 ..... 23.1 ..... -1.5 ..... 112 ..... 095 ..... 3.9
homolumo .......... 13.0 ..... 24.5 ..... -2.0 ..... 085 ..... 121 ..... 6.0
DOCARCH ........... 13.0 ..... 23.7 ..... -1.9 ..... 093 ..... 109 ..... 4.3
hellboy99 ........... 12.9 ..... 24.7 ..... -1.8 ..... 112 ..... 101 ..... 5.8
200motels .......... 12.9 ..... 24.1 ..... -0.6 ..... 109 ..... 082 ..... 3.1
Su Campu .......... 12.8 ..... 24.1 ..... -0.1 ..... 088 ..... 110 ..... 5.5

Con Sensus ....... 12.8 ..... 23.0 ..... -0.5 ..... 105 ..... 103 ..... 4.6

Jerry Seinfeld ..... 12.8 ..... 22.2 ..... -0.5 ..... 115 ..... 095 ..... 7.1
dasa29 .............. 12.8 ..... 24.0 ..... -1.4 ..... 080 ..... 123 ..... 5.5
Fionagus ............ 12.7 ..... 21.1 ..... -1.1 ..... 125 ..... 088 ..... 3.5
nilhg ................. 12.7 ..... 24.7 ..... -1.5 ..... 089 ..... 110 ..... 1.5
thetonynator ...... 12.5 ..... 21.5 ..... -1.9 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 4.0
Danno ............... 12.5 ..... 22.2 ..... -0.2 ..... 140 ..... 090 .... 10.2
Strasser ............ 12.5 ..... 21.4 ..... -1.2 ..... 090 ..... 108 ..... 6.0
nacho libre ......... 12.4 ..... 21.7 ..... +1.7 ..... 140 ..... 090 ..... 5.2
kindredspirit ....... 12.3 ..... 23.0 ..... -1.0 ..... 120 ..... 100 ..... 7.0
waterways ......... 12.3 ..... 23.6 ..... -1.7 ..... 145 ..... 084 ..... 2.7
talkabout ........... 12.1 ..... 21.6 ..... -1.0 ..... 110 ..... 092 ..... 3.3
SeaFields ........... 12.1 ..... 21.5 ..... -0.6 ..... 080 ..... 115 ..... 4.6
dolanbaker ......... 11.9 ..... 18.5 ..... -2.5 ..... 120 ..... 075 ..... 2.5
redsunset .......... 11.7 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 6.5
gothwalk ........... 11.7 ..... 23.2 ..... +0.3 ..... 092 ..... 110 ..... 6.3
The Inquisitor ..... 11.5 ..... 22.0 ..... -2.0 ..... 135 ..... 090 ..... 4.5

---

Welcome to our several new forecasters this month, and glad to see everyone back at it ...

... the consensus seems to be fairly close to normal, but with quite a spread in expectations.

DE was asking (in his entry) about the template, I didn't spot your question until now. I am quite happy with the way people are posting their forecasts, the template is there mainly to save me the step of transcribing the forecasts where it would be more work and also would introduce the element of a copying error. This way, I block copy everyone's templates and edit out the bits that don't appear above. So the closer you come to what you see above is great but I'm not worried about the bits of editing (I used to edit and typeset so this is second nature for me and I am one of those people who can find things on the keyboard without looking down much). The only way an error is going to creep in (from what you intend to what I present) is if I accidentally delete or add a keystroke and while that's not totally impossible I am sort of on the lookout for the few cases where it can happen, like with the minus signs in a month like September where some people have minus temps and some have positive. So check those sorts of things if you want, but I think this method gets everything into the table accurately. I am not using an excel program for this, I sort the entries by the mean temperature (as I'm sure everyone noticed) and then work out the consensus values the old-fashioned way (using medians to save myself the bother of calculating). It probably sounds like a huge amount of work now that we have 30-odd entrants instead of the former dozen or so, but I've done this in less than an hour tonight. If I was going back and forth making up a table from two open windows, it would take longer and I'd be sure to make mistakes and go bananas at some point. Well enough about this, good luck, and if anyone wanders in before end of today, I will add you to the list.

(if you really want to give me a clean template, check this random one out:

15.0 ..... 24.2 ..... -0.2 ..... 120 ..... 080 ..... 4.4

see there are decimals, zeroes and the five dots between each number, and no symbols that I have to delete, so that would save me even more time, but I don't expect people to become robots here so whatever works for you, works for me.)

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I don't expect people to become robots here so whatever works for you, works for me.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_ylXFzG0lM

Speak Now

22.4 in Oak park yesterday, much milder feeling this morning so i expect we'll get over 23 today!

Deep Easterly

Apologies guys, I made a mistake in the rainfall figure for Oak Park in my previous post. Thel % of normal rainfall for the station is actually 95.8%, as oppossed to the 107% I had down yesterday. Was due to an formula error in Excel which distorted the 61-90 July average reading which in turn affected the figures for August for the station . All other station figures are sound though.

Updated charts, which show annual rainfall % up to August 31st at the 5 met stations in the 'IMT' zone. 2009 figures for the same period included for comparison:




Station breakdown:

pauldry

Yesterday it was 22.6c in Claremorris. Is this the Highest for the month so far at met stations? Was 23.1c in Sligo but I dont think that counts coz we dont have a Met Station.

I think that I can safely say that my high temp prediction is way out! :eek:

pauldry

Today isnt at all sunny in Casement

Oh Oh .

Mercy?

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Today isnt at all sunny in Casement

Oh Oh .

Mercy?

It was earlier so it's more than zero

pauldry

Prob an hr at best.

Not on topic at all but great hurling final.

Back on topic weather looked sh#t

M.T. Cranium

With the bonus questions I try to scale the scoring so that the better half to two-thirds of the entrants get some points. So it will probably be something like two scores of ten, two scores of nine etc ... and if Casement had less sunshine than anyone predicted, you can pretty much guess your score from that.

pauldry

There was 1.8hrs of sun in Casement so wer not all shaged


But I am!

thetonynator

There was no sun on Hill 16 . . .:( Sliotars flying into the kilkenny goal like haistone at one point . . .:( and it rained for most of the match.

M.T. Cranium

WolfeIRE and Nilhg will be scooping the ten points for sunshine as they came closest with 2.0 and 1.5 hours respectively. Good job there. If you want to find your own score, just take the next two closest for nine points, etc etc.

I think the mercy rule may be looming for rainfall already. :eek:

M.T. Cranium

AFter the first seven days, the month has been above normal in every way.

Temperatures (IMT) have been running +1.9 on average and that leaves us at 15.4 C so far (that's the anomaly for these seven days, it would be +2.7 if it stayed this warm all month).

The heavy rainfalls of the past two days have given a very wet start, 266% of normal across the country. That does not include Knock, the wettest reporting station (they don't provide an anomaly in the ag-met table). If it failed to rain again this month, we are therefore guaranteed about 70% of normal (after today's additions). No doubt that figure will rise steadily.

Sunshine has been slightly above normal too, despite Belmullet's 80% figure, the national average has been 106%.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Temperatures (IMT) have been running +1.9 on average and that leaves us at 15.4 C so far (that's the anomaly for these seven days, it would be +2.7 if it stayed this warm all month).

Still on 15.4c, which as M.T notes, is well over 1.5c above average for first 3rd of September.

Graph charting mean up to midnight last:



and at this stage last year, we were 2.2c cooler!