Hurricane EARL

maquiladora

Show become a Tropical Storm later today

Sponge Bob

I told ya to wait, now called Tropical storm Earl so edit that thread title. Earl may be headed for Florida next week.

Su Campu

000
WTNT42 KNHC 260241
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EARL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
SHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THAN BEFORE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY
THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER THEREAFTER TO
BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/14. EARL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED AROUND DAY 4 AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
GFDN SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FOR NOW...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE USUALLY
RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.7N 33.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 35.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.5N 39.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 42.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 45.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.4N 51.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 56.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 31/0000Z 21.5N 60.5W 90 KT

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

Su Campu

Here's the NWS Atlantic forecast chart for 00UTC Saturday

maquiladora

Models for Tropical Storm Earl :

maquiladora

Now forecast to eventually become a major, track is a lot less certain than Danielle at the moment.

km79

i like the big H near us:D

maquiladora

06Z GFS takes Earl fairly close to US east coast :



Then later in the run the storm makes landfall in Newfoundland.

maquiladora

Islands are now inside the cone NHC cone for Earl.

18Z GFS is a risky run for the islands, then it curves up and around and slams into Nova Scotia.

Su Campu

Earl has increased to 50kts despite some dry air entrainment and a bit of windshear. It should deepen properly as conditions become more favourable, and could cause some Tropical storm conditions in the Leewards late tomorrow and Monday.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 280857
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

EARL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 C AND A
LARGE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER BUT
REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

A 0413 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EARL
WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. USING
A COMBINATION OF THIS OVERPASS AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 270/18. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL ON A RATHER
QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO NEAR A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS OF THE
TIMING...LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TRENDS TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS EARL MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS AND
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND NOW
BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 3 DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND
POSSIBLY INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.7N 50.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.5N 55.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 17.2N 58.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 18.2N 60.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 20.8N 64.2W 100 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 67.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 69.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

maquiladora

Looks like Earl will probably enter the first Hebert Box, through the NHC track and models don't support a Florida landfall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

maquiladora

Tropical Storm EARL
...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...
5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 28
Location: 16.5°N 54.2°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb

Tropical Storm watches and warnings out now for Leeward Islands.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204213.shtml?gm_track#contents

dexter647

Looks like Earl could be heading for the big apple..

maquiladora

...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
8:00 AM AST Sun Aug 29
Location: 17.1°N 57.6°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

Very close to becoming a hurricane, and still moving west.
Hurricane watches and warnings now issued for some of the islands. US east coast has edged into the 5 day cone.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

Su Campu

As Earl winds up to hit the northern Leeward Islands, here are some webcams to watch in the area (click on each image to open webcam page)

Monserrat


St. Barthelemy


Anguilla



British Virgin Islands





Puerto Rico

maquiladora

...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...
8:30 AM AST Sun Aug 29
Location: 17.1°N 57.7°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

Hurricane Earl now.

maquiladora

...EARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
Location: 17.2°N 58.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

Still headin west. NHC track has Earl as a major just above Puerto Rico.

Su Campu

The cirrus outflow is now visible on the Monserrat cam

Su Campu

One good thing in favour of the residents of the Leeward Islands is that the centre looks like passing to the north, meaning they will be saved the strongest of the winds and storm surge. Being to the south of a westward-moving storm means the storm's movement (currently 17mph) will be subtracted from the windspeeds felt, so instead of 75+17mph to its north, they will feel "only" 75-17mph westerlies, ie less than hurricane strength. Of course there will be a period of northerlies as the centre approaches, then southerlies as it passes, but they will be short lived.

maquiladora

maquiladora

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Started moving WNW.

bakedbean

We're in St. Kitts. Local authorities have given us a 'flash flood awareness' notice and warnings are coming through via the local mobile phone networks. We're working on putting shutters up and filling water tanks but there's little more than a fresh breeze outside so far...

TheMilkyPirate

bakedbean wrote: »

We're in St. Kitts. Local authorities have given us a 'flash flood awareness' notice and warnings are coming through via the local mobile phone networks. We're working on putting shutters up and filling water tanks but there's little more than a fresh breeze outside so far...

:pac:

thetonynator

bakedbean wrote: »

We're in St. Kitts. Local authorities have given us a 'flash flood awareness' notice and warnings are coming through via the local mobile phone networks. We're working on putting shutters up and filling water tanks but there's little more than a fresh breeze outside so far...

keep us updated!!!

bakedbean

Here's a current pic of the skies outside. We suspect it's overkill putting up the shutters etc but better safe than sorry.

maquiladora

bakedbean wrote: »

We're in St. Kitts. Local authorities have given us a 'flash flood awareness' notice and warnings are coming through via the local mobile phone networks. We're working on putting shutters up and filling water tanks but there's little more than a fresh breeze outside so far...

Your under a hurricane warning there but St Kitts is just outside the cone so hopefully Earl will pass to your north.

maquiladora

...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON...

5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 29
Location: 17.6°N 59.5°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb

Su Campu

Conditions at 20:30Z

Thunderstorms in Guadeloupe and Antigua and Barbuda. Wind at Guadeloupe NW11 Gust 27kts, at A&B NW 8kts

[SIZE=-1]TFFR 292000Z 30011G27KT 270V330 0500 R11/1200V1700U
+TSRA FEW010CB SCT016 BKN040 25/24 Q1007 TEMPO
300 +TSRA=[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]TAPA 292000Z 30008KT 9999 -TSRA FEW010CB BKN014 OVC260
27/24 Q1006 RMK CB SSE-SW=[/SIZE]

Su Campu

Latest Ship and Buoy reports in the vicinity of Earl here.

forkassed

maquiladora

...EARL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 30
Location: 18.3°N 62.4°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb

bakedbean

So, update from St. Kitts... Hurricane earl is approx 140km to our north. We had a large amount of thunder and lightning from 7pm local time last night. Heavy rain at 8pm then it went completely quiet for 2-3 hours. Rain and winds then went from 11pm through night.

The wind speeds seem to have increased dramatically from 7am this morning though locals we're in touch with say that's often the case when you're south of the hurricane. We also have egrets hiding in our front porch - i got a grainy picture of one.

stormyeye

some nasty weather approching puerto rico heres a link http://www.earthcam.com/usa/puertorico/islaverde/index.php?cam=oceanpark_str

Su Campu

Princess Juliana Airport, St. Maarten (the famous one where planes land right over the beach) is getting pretty dicey now, winds 41 gusting 59 knots. I wouldn't like to be trying to land there right now! :pac: The TAF calls for 1mile visibility in heavy thunderstorms.


TNCM 31200Z 27041G59KT 9999 BKN015TCU 28/25 Q0986
TNCM 301100Z 31036G53KT 9999 BKN017TCU 28/26 Q0988
TNCM 301000Z 34021G33KT 9999 RESH BKN017TCU 27/25 Q0991
TNCM 300900Z 33023G37KT 9999 -SHRA BKN017TCU 27/25 Q0994
TNCM 300800Z 34023G35KT 9999 -SHRA BKN017TCU 26/24 Q0996
TNCM 300700Z 35021G35KT 9999 BKN017TCU 28/25 Q0998
TNCM 300600Z 36017G29KT 330V040 9999 BKN017TCU 29/25 Q1001
TNCM 300500Z 01014KT 340V040 9999 BKN017TU 29/26 Q1002
TNCM 300400Z 36013KT 340V040 BKN017TCU 30/26 Q1004
TNCM 300300Z 01012G24KT 340V040 9999 BKN017TCU 29/26 Q1006 RETS/ CB/LTG DIST/ S AND W
TNCM 300200Z 36013G24KT 4000NE SHRA BKN015TCU SCT035 29/27 Q1006 LTG TO NE
TNCM 300100Z 35013KT 9999 SCT017TCU SCT035 29/26 Q1007 RERA/ LTG TO N

TAF
TNCM 301146Z 3012/3112 31036G53KT P6SM BKN017
TEMPO 3012/3016 VRB40G60KT 1SM +TSRA BKN005CB
FM301600 VRB30G50KT 3SM +TSRA BKN010CB
FM302000 01025G35KT P6SM VCTS SCT020CB BKN050
TEMPO 3020/3024 VRB18G25KT 4SM TSRA BKN017CB OVC040

maquiladora

Earl is now a Cat 3. NHC track has shiftly slightly to the west, no major changes in the forecast though.

maquiladora

12Z GFS brings Earl closer to the US east coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_090l.gif

maquiladora

Impressive hurricane

Deep Easterly

OK, who put Father Jack in charge of the Montserrat webcam?







way to go Padre!

maquiladora

...EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 30
Location: 19.3°N 64.7°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb

Sponge Bob

Wow :eek: at the pressure, if it slows down any when it makes landfall in the Carolinas and Virginia it will dump epic quantities of rain over the Eastern US as well as build an enormous battering storm surge right into the bays from Baltimore to Charlestown.

Deep Easterly

A handy site to track hourly progress of storms in the region:

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2010083019&lang=en&map=Caribbean

(click on 'larger map' for higher resolution)

maquiladora

18Z GFS rolling out and is taking Earl a bit further west. The last couple of runs have moved it further to the west, a worrying trend.

After T78 he starts to turn away from the coast just in time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_078l.gif

Radar :

maquiladora

LOCATION...19.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

maquiladora

06Z GFS has Earl curving up along the the US east coast just barely off shore, wow.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs500mbHGHTNA078.html

Su Campu

24hr Rainfall totals to 00OTC and 06UTC this morning, respectively.

Monserrat had 7 inches up to 00UTC!

WolfeIRE

this sat image shows a line of potential storms following on earl's tail

http://www.sat24.com/homepage.aspx?page=world

maquiladora

9:00 AM AST Tue Aug 31
Location: 21.0°N 67.6°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb

Pressure rising slightly.

Iancar29

Earl Could be nasty for the east coast if they make a mistake in judging the power of it!

Gustov looks like its coming alive also!

Sat pic of Earl and Fiona

maquiladora

12Z GFS

Redsunset

Hurricane Earl is photographed by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010. Credit: Astro_Wheels/NASA

Stinicker

redsunset wrote: »

Hurricane Earl is photographed by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010. Credit: Astro_Wheels/NASA

Thats a monster!!