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Ratings Agencies make FF Pay for their failure to be upfront

  • 25-08-2010 6:16am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭


    So now the Irish taxpayer will be punished further by having to pay higher % rates on the cash that FF will borrow to support the 'systemically important' Anglo Irish Bank (We wont even discuss FFingers and INBS)

    Instead of resetting to zero and taking the required hits in 2006/07 Its now clear that FF (with the approval of the Dail) have allowed economic and fiscal matters to drag

    3 years of slow painful dripping leaks of fact and truth, I can remember reading in 2008 and a guy was claiming Anglo was going to create a 30 - 40 Billion hole for the Irish Taxpayer and people scoffed at him, I guess he was correct yet one wonders did the Govt have access to the same data that he had?

    Markets punish the kind of truth bending and spoofery that members of the Dail are so fond of.

    Perhaps its time for change? Why should we be held as debt slaves for our failed political 'elite' ?


«13

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭Mister men


    We deserve what we get. Cowards the lot of us.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Poly


    We, the taxpayer and our children will pay for FF's failure.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    We should probably stop scoffing at people who predict things we don't want to hear.

    They're turning out to have an uncanny knack of being correct.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    This is bad, very bad for Ireland. The "turning a corner" malarky is washing thin now and the general public are already on edge. Where is it going to end. How many more Billions have to go to Anglo and the banks? There is no easy options though anymore.

    I just cannot see them (FF + Greens) get through another budget. I hope they do as it will be the deathknell of FF for 15 years, but I just cannot see them get the votes for it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Barname


    jank wrote: »
    This is bad, very bad for Ireland. The "turning a corner" malarky is washing thin now and the general public are already on edge. Where is it going to end. How many more Billions have to go to Anglo and the banks?

    Anglo Irish €30 Billion +
    INBS €7 Billion (that will be the final number)
    AIB €30 Billion (this is the elephant in the corner)

    so, there you have it, thats close on €70 Billion, gone, zappo.

    The Markets know it, the Rating Agencies know it.

    For how much longer will our failed political 'elite' attempt to pull the wool? Not long, their game is up, the squeeze is on.

    Parachutes on.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    It's total c0ck,

    We apparently bailed out the banks (especially Anglo) so as to save our sovereign credit rating- still not sure how private bank mismanagement and excessive risk could have reflected badly on sovereign borrowing, in fact I'm sure bond holders invested in the excessively risky Anglo to get excessively large returns- but now our sovereign credit rating is being dragged down by the bailout that was intended to protect it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,164 ✭✭✭hobochris


    It's total c0ck,

    We apparently bailed out the banks (especially Anglo) so as to save our sovereign credit rating- still not sure how private bank mismanagement and excessive risk could have reflected badly on sovereign borrowing, in fact I'm sure bond holders invested in the excessively risky Anglo to get excessively large returns- but now our sovereign credit rating is being dragged down by the bailout that was intended to protect it.

    The stench from Anglo is only getting stronger.

    I wonder when we will find out the full story behind why FF are so intent on not letting this bank go to the wall like it should.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    hobochris wrote: »
    The stench from Anglo is only getting stronger.

    I wonder when we will find out the full story behind why FF are so intent on not letting this bank go to the wall like it should.


    Allegedly, INBS is where all the all the dodgy political loans reside.
    That's what I am hearing.

    Anglo is where all the dodgy developer loans were generated from.


    One does get the distinct feeling that FF are literally jumping through hoops for reasons other than just saving two commerical lenders.
    Their fixation would justifies the general publics suspicions.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Barname


    2092174220_7426117ebd.jpg?v=0

    Staff are very hard at work in Anglo and INBS

    Can the peasants back-off and leave us to do our work ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭mitresize5


    they will still get 30% of the vote at the next election.

    My take on it is that there isn't a huge conspiracy behind keeping Anglo & NIB afloat its just that to row back on it now would be to admit they were wrong to prop them up in the first place.

    Admitting you were wrong is fundamentally against first principles for FF


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 595 ✭✭✭George Orwell 1982


    There is a double blow in this in that now only have we been downgraded but their outlook for the rating (not the economy) is negative.

    S&P cite the rising cost of the banking bailout as in their statement and project a debt-GDP ratio of 113% in 2012. They project the total cost of the bank bailout and Nama to be €90 billion.

    Irish ten year bond yields have risen above 5.5 percent this morning and the spread against their German equivalent, at about 340 basis points, is the highest it has been in recent years.

    Very hard to see how we can come back from this and avoid a spiral of rising debt costs and pessimistic investor sentiment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,241 ✭✭✭amacca


    It's total c0ck,

    We apparently bailed out the banks (especially Anglo) so as to save our sovereign credit rating- still not sure how private bank mismanagement and excessive risk could have reflected badly on sovereign borrowing, in fact I'm sure bond holders invested in the excessively risky Anglo to get excessively large returns- but now our sovereign credit rating is being dragged down by the bailout that was intended to protect it.

    Now that the dust is beginning to settle it certainly seems that way....

    just goes to show what a fickle master the market is. When guarantee was introduced how could a bondholder not fail to be delighted that his higher risk investment was completely guaranteed?

    Now at the point where many have gotten out (at least so it would seem but open to correction on this as it could be partly down to my paranoia) this guarantee becomes a bad thing.

    just goes to show that the hard but sensible decisions should have been taken in the first place as whats happened is like trying to prop up a collapsing building with a sausage (please somebody tell me my analogy is crap and by all means come up with a better one)

    Anglo and INBS were never systemic imo.....know its easy to say in hindsight but they should have been let go to the wall and all our resources poured into AIB and BOI

    wouldn't discount mitresize5's opinion that a lot of this is political hubris.....it could simply be that to row back now would be against policy and admitting they were wrong but I would add that theyre probably reluctant to go back now as it wouldnt really save much because the cash has effectively been squandered and it aint ever coming back so they might as well proceed with their failure of a decision.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 199 ✭✭markiemark2005


    I thought we have turned the corner?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,241 ✭✭✭amacca


    I thought we have turned the corner?

    You my friend are a funny man! I shall keep an eye on you.:)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    Irish ten year bond yields have risen above 5.5 percent this morning and the spread against their German equivalent, at about 340 basis points, is the highest it has been in recent years.

    Very hard to see how we can come back from this and avoid a spiral of rising debt costs and pessimistic investor sentiment.

    Very true, especially so when you consider how frequently and how much debt bonds are issued at this current rate, never mind the ones coming later this year and next which will no doubt attract an even higher one
    hobochris wrote: »
    I wonder when we will find out the full story behind why FF are so intent on not letting this bank go to the wall like it should.
    hinault wrote: »
    A
    One does get the distinct feeling that FF are literally jumping through hoops for reasons other than just saving two commerical lenders.
    Their fixation would justifies the general publics suspicions.
    +1 to both of those, it is so dodgy looking to the average man on the street.
    I thought we have turned the corner?
    we have, 4 times, so we are back where we started now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    No need to panic folks, another hero has found the solution to our problems!

    http://www.rte.ie/aertel/131-01.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,700 ✭✭✭irishh_bob


    mitresize5 wrote: »
    they will still get 30% of the vote at the next election.

    My take on it is that there isn't a huge conspiracy behind keeping Anglo & NIB afloat its just that to row back on it now would be to admit they were wrong to prop them up in the first place.

    Admitting you were wrong is fundamentally against first principles for FF

    you could well be right


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    liammur wrote: »
    No need to panic folks, another hero has found the solution to our problems!

    http://www.rte.ie/aertel/131-01.html

    oh, I see S&P analysis was flawed and they clearly don't know what they are at.
    :rolleyes: idiots

    Given the current situation I think maybe, just maybe, the NTMA dealings may be flawed...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    oh, I see S&P analysis was flawed and they clearly don't know what they are at.
    :rolleyes: idiots

    Given the current situation I think maybe, just maybe, the NTMA dealings may be flawed...

    You can choose for yourself who is right, it boils down to:

    S&P is taking its decision because it believes the cost of the banking bailouts could reach as much as €50bn. The agency also raised concerns over the ultimate cost of Anglo Irish and NAMA.
    In a statement, S&P said: "We understand that NAMA has been organised in such a way as to keep it off the Irish Government's balance sheet. We take a different approach."
    It said NAMA represented a "direct obligation" to the Government. The NTMA said in a statement last night: "We believe this approach is flawed."


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Barname


    So,

    Independence was it worth it? Blood spilled and lives lost and all for what?

    So some greedy FF'ers could line their pockets?

    Our Sovereign fiscal independence is gone meanwhile the political 'elite' take tax payer funded jets from Dublin to Derry

    The beaten down Irish peasant serves his 'betters' well, very well.

    Remember, at the next election..

    Vote FF, help them steal more.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭danbohan


    This post has been deleted.

    ok donegalfella , we all know they wont do what needs to be done , so how do you see it pan out from here ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,910 ✭✭✭✭whatawaster


    This post has been deleted.

    There is not one mainstream political party who are even planning cuts to public sector wages or social welfare, so you're right not to hold your breath


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,834 ✭✭✭Welease


    There is not one mainstream political party who are even planning cuts to public sector wages or social welfare, so you're right not to hold your breath

    If your primary concern was your own political career, would you risk alienating 400,000+ voters?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Barname


    Welease wrote: »
    If your primary concern was your own political career, would you risk alienating 400,000+ voters?

    Are you attempting to justify Economic Treachery ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,914 ✭✭✭danbohan


    Barname wrote: »
    Are you attempting to justify Economic Treachery ?

    you dont have to justify it , its govt policy !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,834 ✭✭✭Welease


    Barname wrote: »
    Are you attempting to justify Economic Treachery ?

    No, I'm explaining why they don't make savage cuts to many specific areas..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    liammur wrote: »
    You can choose for yourself who is right, it boils down to:

    S&P is taking its decision because it believes the cost of the banking bailouts could reach as much as €50bn. The agency also raised concerns over the ultimate cost of Anglo Irish and NAMA.
    In a statement, S&P said: "We understand that NAMA has been organised in such a way as to keep it off the Irish Government's balance sheet. We take a different approach."
    It said NAMA represented a "direct obligation" to the Government. The NTMA said in a statement last night: "We believe this approach is flawed."

    I totally agree with S&P. No one in their right mind would should touch Irish debt at the moment. There is just too much hidden information in NAMA to know if you'll ever see your money again.

    The bolded point has already been proven by the EU and we were told to change the way it's recorded to show it properly. Says it all as far as I'm concerned.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Barname


    Welease wrote: »
    No, I'm explaining why they don't make savage cuts to many specific areas..

    no explanation is valid, unless your name is Brian Cowen, Mary Coughlan or such there is no need to fight their battles

    the wheels are off, this economy has been seizing for almost 4 years, 4 years wasted in which Cowen failed to act in the interest of all so as to protect the interest of FF's golden circle

    A man, a patriot would have stood aside long before now, not Mr Cowen and his parochial gombeen occupation of The Taoiseachs Office

    Its endgame now, pretty soon those on Tracker Mortgages will be told they are being cancelled and that they will have to pay a market rate

    then the fun will begin, then the peasants might mobilise


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 802 ✭✭✭Scarab80


    The bolded point has already been proven by the EU and we were told to change the way it's recorded to show it properly. Says it all as far as I'm concerned.

    No we weren't. You are thinking of the promissory note system of bank recapitalisations in relation to Anglo and INBS.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,834 ✭✭✭Welease


    Barname wrote: »
    no explanation is valid, unless your name is Brian Cowen, Mary Coughlan or such there is no need to fight their battles

    the wheels are off, this economy has been seizing for almost 4 years, 4 years wasted in which Cowen failed to act in the interest of all so as to protect the interest of FF's golden circle

    A man, a patriot would have stood aside long before now, not Mr Cowen and his parochial gombeen occupation of The Taoiseachs Office

    Its endgame now, pretty soon those on Tracker Mortgages will be told they are being cancelled and that they will have to pay a market rate

    then the fun will begin, then the peasants might mobilise[/QUOTE]

    lol i doubt it..

    mobilise for what? for the cuts that you want to PS pay/conditions and Social welfare..

    2 things are guaranteed with this country..

    1. The majority believe that they are no in no way even partly responsible for the current situation
    2. The majority believe that someone else should take the pain to fix the country..

    Who will mobilise?

    You won't get 400K PS workers, 450K+ unemployed and god know how many pensioners to mobilise to get their own share of the pie cut... and the rest of the country will keep their heads down and hope it all goes away...

    Welcome to post Celtic Tiger Ireland :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    Welease wrote: »
    mobilise for what?

    1. The majority believe that they are no in no way even partly responsible for the current situation
    2. The majority believe that someone else should take the pain to fix the country..

    Well although DF says we need cuts (and we do) we also need the social justice and fairness he dismisses. We should mobilise for this.

    Yes we are all partly to blame but the blame is not equal, and the consequences need to be proportional. People complain about the 400k PS workers who cost us €20bn a year and the 450k unemployed who have a €20bn social welfare bill? Well there are 2000 elite who have their loans going into NAMA, they have cost the banks and consequently the tax payer €70bn. So blame is not proportional and people will be very reluctant to take necessary cuts while these 2000 aren't being destroyed, for example Sean Fitzpatrick isn't doing too badly. Cuts need to start from the top down and from the most responsible down, government, top civil servants, financial 'experts' that gave bad advice, developers in hock but not in rags, all the way down to the unemployed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    oh, I see S&P analysis was flawed and they clearly don't know what they are at.

    There is a point to be made here. The banks need to be recapitalised as NAMA has applied a large haircut to their loans. The larger the haircut the more the banks need, but also the more likely that NAMA will get most of its money back.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,241 ✭✭✭amacca


    Well although DF says we need cuts (and we do) we also need the social justice and fairness he dismisses. We should mobilise for this.

    Yes we are all partly to blame but the blame is not equal, and the consequences need to be proportional. People complain about the 400k PS workers who cost us €20bn a year and the 450k unemployed who have a €20bn social welfare bill? Well there are 2000 elite who have their loans going into NAMA, they have cost the banks and consequently the tax payer €70bn. So blame is not proportional and people will be very reluctant to take necessary cuts while these 2000 aren't being destroyed, for example Sean Fitzpatrick isn't doing too badly. Cuts need to start from the top down and from the most responsible down, government, top civil servants, financial 'experts' that gave bad advice, developers in hock but not in rags, all the way down to the unemployed.

    Agreed.....couldn't have put it better myself.

    Always disliked the no use crying over spilt milk...put your nose to the grindstone.....were in this together

    You first seanie, you first mclaughlin boi mouthpiece economist (still being interviewed by rte ... why arent they quoting his economic analysis during the bubble), you first consultant creaming it consultant, you first gombeen politician, you first shoebox developer, you first reckless borrower, etc etc

    Cuts will be easier to implement when real consequences occur for those most responsible and there is a pecking order. Natural justice....those that are most responsible SHOULD suffer the consequences first

    this will still mean large cuts for public sector, social welfare etc but its a worthwhile necessary cathartic exercise and will serve as a disincentive for this kind of reckless behaviour for years to come

    TOP down I say, not bottom up regardless of the numbers at the top or the bottom.

    however I'm not naive and I believe I wont hold my breath on this one


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,560 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    Scarab80 wrote: »
    No we weren't. You are thinking of the promissory note system of bank recapitalisations in relation to Anglo and INBS.

    oops :o

    In reality money into these entities is off balance sheet financing in the end and that is a big no no regardless. We can't just borrow 50bn and hand it to Anglo and pretend its not our debt, the NTMA auctioned it and has it name all over it. When (if) everything goes to **** whoever lent that money will be looking for it back off the Gov, not Anglo


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    It is only a matter of months before FF and the Greens ( or perhaps FG/Labour) invite the IMF in to make the key decisions for them.

    There is a plan to ruthlessly and quickly terminate Anglo and INBS but an external agency such as the IMF and EU together will have to give the order to execute the plan.

    I would say the IMF will be here, running the gaff, by February 2011, latest.

    The likelihood is that the Greens and FF will cut and run in a general election before then to make sure that FG and Labour are 'blamed' for calling in the IMF. Watch out for industrial scale wind and piss over health cuts when the Dáil resumes in October....followed by a general election in November.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,834 ✭✭✭Welease


    Well although DF says we need cuts (and we do) we also need the social justice and fairness he dismisses. We should mobilise for this.

    Yes we are all partly to blame but the blame is not equal, and the consequences need to be proportional. People complain about the 400k PS workers who cost us €20bn a year and the 450k unemployed who have a €20bn social welfare bill? Well there are 2000 elite who have their loans going into NAMA, they have cost the banks and consequently the tax payer €70bn. So blame is not proportional and people will be very reluctant to take necessary cuts while these 2000 aren't being destroyed, for example Sean Fitzpatrick isn't doing too badly. Cuts need to start from the top down and from the most responsible down, government, top civil servants, financial 'experts' that gave bad advice, developers in hock but not in rags, all the way down to the unemployed.

    Won't happen though ...
    and this country won't mobilise for cuts to their own part of the remaining pie..

    If the people who were responsible were going to be held accountable it would have been done and dusted long ago (like in the US).. Not one person has been held to account (to my knowledge) in Ireland.. We don't do responsibility..!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,241 ✭✭✭amacca


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    It is only a matter of months before FF and the Greens ( or perhaps FG/Labour) invite the IMF in to make the key decisions for them.

    There is a plan to ruthlessly and quickly terminate Anglo and INBS but an external agency such as the IMF and EU together will have to give the order to execute the plan.

    I would say the IMF will be here, running the gaff, by February 2011, latest.

    The likelihood is that the Greens and FF will cut and run in a general election before then to make sure that FG and Labour are 'blamed' for calling in the IMF. Watch out for industrial scale wind and piss over health cuts when the Dáil resumes in October....followed by a general election in November.

    An interesting vista you paint

    If they do cut and run.....I will still blame them (mostly ff despite my obvious dislike of greens) I'm not going to transfer the blame onto a party handed a poisoned chalice months before the coup de grace.

    much like I still apportion more blame to Bertie than Brian.....but I suppose if it does happen this way the party left holding the bag will inevitably be blamed.....many many people seem to have such short memories.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Barname


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    It is only a matter of months before FF and the Greens invite the IMF in to make the key decisions for them.

    Yes, why do you think Cowen cancelled his place on the junket to China, September?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 802 ✭✭✭Scarab80


    oops :o

    In reality money into these entities is off balance sheet financing in the end and that is a big no no regardless. We can't just borrow 50bn and hand it to Anglo and pretend its not our debt, the NTMA auctioned it and has it name all over it. When (if) everything goes to **** whoever lent that money will be looking for it back off the Gov, not Anglo

    The money going into Anglo and INBS isn't off balance sheet and will be included in our national deficit figures in this year, this will push our one year deficit out to about 20%, under the rather reasonable assumption that this money will not be repaid but will be used to repay Anglo's and INBS's creditors.

    That is not to say that the notes have been funded by the NTMA, they have not. Currently actually 4.1bn of borrowed money has been put into Anglo and INBS combined. With a large portion of the banks assets now made up of non-income generating assets (promissory notes) and low-income generating assets (NAMA bonds) one wonders if these banks can even generate a positive gross interest margin. If they can not it will not be long until actual cash is required to go into the banks so that they can repurchase or not roll over their bonds, shrinking their balance sheet and transferring the interest payment to the exchequer.

    An issue I have with the S&P rating report is the way that they have included only one side of the total banking costs, i.e. the money put in and have not valued any of the assets purchased. This is obviously a prudent methodology for Anlgo and INBS, but for BOI and AIB they have done the same disregarding the fact that the 7bn put into those 2 banks is valued at 7.6bn at todays market prices.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    amacca wrote: »
    I suppose if it does happen this way the party left holding the bag will inevitably be blamed.....many many people seem to have such short memories.

    Exactly. It will be entirely FFs fault if the IMF appears in Dublin but the party that issues the inevitable invite will be blamed. FF intend not to be that party, hence an election is in the offing.

    The fractious country and western type 'independent' FF ers will bring the whole thing down by end October while pretending to fight health cuts....and just you wait till you see what the :pac::pac::pac: IMF :pac::pac::pac: will do to the health system next year :eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Barname


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Exactly. It will be entirely FFs fault if the IMF appears

    The fractious country and western type 'independent' FF ers will bring the whole thing down by end October while pretending to fight health cuts....and just you wait till you see what the :pac::pac::pac: IMF :pac::pac::pac: will do to the health system next year :eek:

    JackieHealyRae2-sm.jpg

    BertieAhern.jpg

    MORIARTY_TRIBUNAL_14009545_display.jpg

    brian_cowen1.jpg


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    And the cute one in the middle not the cute one on the right. He even has his own Spoof FF website.

    700;500;d6574a7e29a7504ca29b998e9d2e834ab03371c8.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Sponge Bob wrote: »

    I would say the IMF will be here, running the gaff, by February 2011, latest.

    They may eventually come in but I can't see it that soon. The NTMA has enough money borrowed for the rest of the year already and then there's the EBU willing to take up some slack in the bond market. The IMF will only come in if the EBU lose patience with the government. When it happens it will probably happen pretty quickly though.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    They may eventually come in but I can't see it that soon. The NTMA has enough money borrowed for the rest of the year already

    I know that.
    and then there's the EBU willing to

    Who or what is that , never heard of it outside of Eurovision ??
    The IMF will only come in if the EBU lose patience with the government. When it happens it will probably happen pretty quickly though.

    When it happens it will be prepacked. It will happen so fast our heads will spin. What is Alan Ahearne up to nowadays has anyone noticed ???


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,241 ✭✭✭amacca


    Sponge Bob wrote: »

    When it happens it will be prepacked. It will happen so fast our heads will spin. What is Alan Ahearne up to nowadays has anyone noticed ???

    YEP there wont be a long slow countdown

    go to bed one evening amidst slow rumblings wake up the next morning and smell the coffee

    I can hear the morning ireland programme already followed by attempts at serious analysis followed by misinformation and confusion followed by joe rubbing his nipples with glee (a la the savage eye) as the switchboards light up with thousands of irate hysterical housewives, taximen wanting to chip in their predictable "but what I want to know Joe" two cents worth...yess yes tell me more...no its not right maureen..have you texted in to our poll...weve included bertie because we know youll be so irate there will be thousands of you giving us your money to condemn

    followed by an address to the nation by whatever follish leader is left holding the bag followed by Sharon Ni Beolain repeating the whole thing on six one... ho hum..

    I do find you're timeline hard to believe though ..... think it'll be a while longer but that I suppose is just splitting hairs.

    if we do get out of this without imf/eu direct intervention itll put harry houdinis efforts to shame.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Who or what is that , never heard of it outside of Eurovision ??


    Whoops meant the ECB (keep calling them the EBU for some reason)



    As for pre-packed IMF deals-the one in Greece seemed to be strung out over a long enough period


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    Financial Times regarding the S&P downgrade.




    By John Murray Brown in Dublin and David Oakley in London

    Published: August 25 2010 12:00 | Last updated: August 25 2010 12:00

    Ireland on Wednesday criticised Standard & Poor’s after the credit rating agency cut the country’s long-term credit rating, causing Irish government bonds to tumble in early trading.

    John Corrigan, chief executive of the National Treasury Management Agency, a semi-state body which handles Irish debt auctions, accused S&P of a “flawed” analysis of Ireland’s debt position. He said the agency’s debt calculations did not accord with the approach of either the IMF or Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistical agency.

    “It’s something we don’t like to do but there comes a point when the analysis is not robust and the fact they’ve had to publish a technical addendum explaining why they have fallen outside the normal technical boundaries underlines our criticism,” Mr Corrigan told Irish radio.
    The S&P downgrade of Ireland to AA- takes it to the same level as Fitch and one lower than Moody’s, which downgraded Ireland in July citing the deteriorating debt ratios and weakening growth outlook. In May the IMF warned that the government may have to make further budget cuts to retain credibility with the debt markets if economic growth is slower than currently forecast.

    Ireland’s main objection to S&P’s analysis is that the agency’s debt calculations include the bonds issued to Irish banks in exchange for the impaired property loans which the National Asset Management Agency, the state’s so-called bad bank, has taken over. In turn S&P puts no value on the property assets acquired by Nama, even though, as Mr Corrigan points out, the collateral for 25 per cent of the loans are properties in London.
    “Is S&P seriously suggesting that property is worth nothing?” said Mr Corrigan.

    As a result, S&P forecast Irish debt to peak at 137 per cent of GDP, against government estimates – which exclude the Nama bonds – at about 94 per cent.

    S&P puts the cost of the bank rescue at €50bn, which Mr Corrigan describes as “at the extreme end of any analyst’s comment”. The government’s own estimate of the cost of the bank rescue is about €25bn, or 15 per cent of GDP, which officials said is in line with what happened during the Nordic banking crisis in the early 1990s.

    “They have to net off the underlying assets, and that is essentially our issue. They don’t allow for the €7bn that we hold in Bank of Ireland and AIB. They don’t allow for the underlying value of the Nama assets. They don’t attribute any value whatsoever. You can argue about what value is there and commentators discuss that all the time. But to attribute no value to it is not a realistic approach in our view and, exceptionally, we have taken issue with the rating agency,” said Mr Corrigan.

    Ireland was the first eurozone member to enter recession. It was devastated by a property collapse which has blown a hole in the public finances and hit the banks, which lent billions to builders and developers during the boom.
    Following S&P’s downgrade, the premium Ireland pays to borrow in the markets above those paid by Germany also jumped sharply to levels last seen in May.
    Irish 10-year bond yields, which have an inverse relationship with prices, rose nearly quarter of a point to 5.41 per cent and the yield spread over Germany jumped over 3 percentage points

    The cost of protecting Irish government bonds against default rose too. Irish five-year credit default swaps rose three basis points on the day to 310bp, which means it now costs $310,000 to insure $10m of Irish debt annually for five years.
    Ireland’s banks also have to refinance large levels of bank debt next month, which is worrying analysts and investors.
    The country has €8.5bn of guaranteed bank bonds that mature in September. Ireland’s banking problems have undermined sentiment in the markets in recent weeks


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,457 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    It is only a matter of months before FF and the Greens ( or perhaps FG/Labour) invite the IMF in to make the key decisions for them.

    There is a plan to ruthlessly and quickly terminate Anglo and INBS but an external agency such as the IMF and EU together will have to give the order to execute the plan.

    I would say the IMF will be here, running the gaff, by February 2011, latest.
    IMF does not have the power to say what/how to cut (though they can add in requirements for their loans to be paid out); they would simply say cut costs by X billion and increase income by Y billion and open up market Z. These are the ways we think you could do it but it is your decision how and to implement it; until you do no cash for you.

    To the person bringing up uneven share of costs of PS & social wellfare "only" being 40 billion vs. the 70 Billion in the banks; difference is those 40 billion is yearly and the 70 billion NAMA is a one of expense. Already by year two those costs are higher then NAMA and will only keep on hanging around the neck...


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