Official Free Money Rugby Gambling Superthread 10/11.

thomond2006

Time to finance the bookmakers!

I was just looking at the outright betting for the comps this season and seeing if there was value anywhere.

(All prices quoted from PaddyPower)

*****HEINEKEN CUP*****

Outright Betting
I wouldn't touch Munster or Leinster to win, 10/1 and 12/1 respectively are terrible odds considering their pool opponents.

Toulouse are huge favourites with their easy group but 3/1 is too low a price to warrant a wager.

I'd stick money on Clermont at 10/1, just beforehand make sure Parra is fit and taking the kicks for the whole season!

My dark horse bets would be Northampton at 16/1 and Toulon at 25/1. 100/1 for Edinburgh too (they're a long shot dark horse mind! ).

Pool Winners Betting
Since we don't know how good/bad they'll be, a few quid on Aironi (500/1) to win Pool 4 wouldn't go amiss. They have a decent enough squad on paper and they don't have the scariest group (Ulster, Bath and Biarritz).

Other than that, no real value. (As I said, only a FEW quid on Aironi!)

****MAGNERS LEAGUE*****

PP have lots of markets for this, not a lot value though.

11/2 for Ospreys to win the regular season and the grand final isn't bad.

5/4 for Dragons to finish above Scarlets is good IMO, I think Scarlets are in really bad shape while Dragons are on the up.

13/8 for Edinburgh is quite good too, given that Cardiff for so long have pissed on the ML when still in Europe. Edinburgh will likely be out of Europe after January. Glasgow are the same odds but have lost a lot of their quality in the off season.

Happy Betting!

profitius

I strongly fancy Glasgow to struggle this season. Even losing Parks alone was a massive loss (think of all the games he won with drop goals etc) but losing all the other players will be a big set back for them. Bottom half for me and I'll be backing against them alot.

Munster should be much improved this. New signings, a summer break for all, academy players stepping up and long term injured players returning. If McGahan picks a youthful team for the ML (because the likes of ROG don't try in the ML) they won't lose too many games.

Leinster are a bit of an unknown for this season. I reckon they'll be more attack minded and they'll score loads more tries than last season. It might take a bit of time for Schmidt to make his mark on the team. I think the first few games could be tough but they'll be fine after a few weeks.

Ospreys are roughly the same as last season. It should be interesting how seriously they take the ML.

Edinburgh, Llanelli and Connacht probably won't change much.

We'll know more about the Italians after a few games. They've signed some good players but the squad strength remains to be see. I predict they'll finish ahead of Connacht unfortunatly. One disadvantage for the Italians is the travelling although its probably an advantage for their home games. I think in years to come they'll lose alot of away games and win alot of home.

Dragons seem to be slowly improving each year. Buying in good young players that improve over time. Its a well run region.

Cardiff, who knows. They've Parks now who'll give them an edge and he'll be the difference in a few matches which should see them get into the top 4.

Ulster will finish just outsid the top 4. They've a better team this season although maybe not the squad to challenge.

So my top 4 is (very biased looking ):
1. Munster
2. Leinster
3. Ospreys
4. Cardiff

Judgement Day

*****HEINEKEN CUP*****

Outright Betting

Oh I don't know about Munster and Leinster though - given that many of the players (excluding the Bull) will be on their 'Swan-song' and may want to go out with a bang. I'll give them both a lash at those odds. Mind you, this is coming from the man who backed Brive at the start of the last Top 14 season! But I did predict the Boks coming to grief in the Ireland match and the impending All Blacks clean-sweep in the Tri-Nations. And their impending demolition of the Home nations.

Clermont now down to 9/1, and as you say Thomond if we could be sure that Brock James isn't allowed near the kicking - but how?

Sadly much as I love Jonny (and Contepomi) I don't think Toulon will feature but at 25/1 I will stick a few Euros on them

****MAGNERS LEAGUE*****

Munster to win the Regular Season and the Grand Final at 15/2?

As you say PP offer lots of options but few tempting ones.

wixfjord

Judgement Day wrote: »

*****HEINEKEN CUP*****

Outright Betting

Oh I don't know about Munster and Leinster though - given that many of the players (excluding the Bull) will be on their 'Swan-song' and may want to go out with a bang. I'll give them both a lash at those odds. Mind you, this is coming from the man who backed Brive at the start of the last Top 14 season! But I did predict the Boks coming to grief in the Ireland match and the impending All Blacks clean-sweep in the Tri-Nations. And their impending demolition of the Home nations.

Clermont now down to 9/1, and as you say Thomond if we could be sure that Brock James isn't allowed near the kicking - but how?

Sadly much as I love Jonny (and Contepomi) I don't think Toulon will feature but at 25/1 I will stick a few Euros on them

****MAGNERS LEAGUE*****

Munster to win the Regular Season and the Grand Final at 15/2?

As you say PP offer lots of options but few tempting ones.

Pretty poor odds imo.
Ill be looking at Ulster e/w for the Magners season betting, Ospreys for the Heineken Cup e/w and a cheeky 5 e/w on Nicky Robinson to be top point scorer in the GP. Won me a few bob last season. Good bet imo, hes kicker, wont be picked for 6N, gets a good few drop goals, and can score tries.

thomond2006

I'd strongly fancy Leinster to beat Glasgow this weekend, and will definitely back them if odds are half-decent.

The reason? Glasgow's first choice 6-10 of last season are all either gone (Brown & Parks) or injured at the moment (Barclay, Beattie, Cusiter) along with reserve back row James Eddie.

Could be some value there IMO, even if Leinster send only half the first teamers.

thomond2006

Bet of the week for me is Leinster to beat Glasgow.
Aironi +22 might be a fun bet, considering no knows what they will be like!

Both of these are 10/11.

sock puppet

20/1 on Carr being top try scorer maybe?

8/1 on Edinburgh being top try scorers looks decent too.

profitius

sock puppet wrote: »

20/1 on Carr being top try scorer maybe?

That looks good. It looks like they're targetting the ML this season.

porterbelly

You really would have to fancy Leinster tomorrow night. I agree that Glasgow will struggle big time this season. Their game was based around the intensity of their back row and the control of Parks at 10. I think Connacht can improve this year and can make the Sportsground a fortress, and if they can be a bit pluckier on the road picking up the odd unlikely bonus point.

1. Ospreys
2. Leinster
3. Cardiff
4. Munster
5. Ulster
6. Edinburgh
7. Glasgow
8. Dragons
9. Connacht
10. Scarlets
11. Treviso
12. Aironi

tolosenc

porterbelly wrote: »

1. Ospreys
2. Leinster
3. Cardiff
4. Munster
5. Ulster
6. Edinburgh
7. Glasgow
8. Dragons
9. Connacht
10. Scarlets
11. Treviso
12. Aironi

Aironi to come last? I think that's way off. I've the players they have play well together, 6th/7th isn't unreasonable.

PhatPiggins

tolosenc wrote: »

Aironi to come last? I think that's way off. I've the players they have play well together, 6th/7th isn't unreasonable.

Based on previous form

Scratch team, with a few nearly has been's sprinkled around. They'll do very well not to be in the bottom 3.

tolosenc

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Based on previous form .

In fairness, they're yet to pick up so much as a bonus point in the Magner's League...

porterbelly

tolosenc wrote: »

Aironi to come last? I think that's way off. I've the players they have play well together, 6th/7th isn't unreasonable.

Aironi are a scratch team and they'll need time to bed in. They're a completely new entity and so there probably won't be much of a support base, unless they start winning early. If you compare them to Treviso, they have a support base in place and at least will have a good atmosphere at home, and have a bit of continuity from before. If Aironi start poorly they'll find it hard to garner support and may struggle this season.

wixfjord

Plus Aironi will be losing a good few for the 6N.

thomond2006

Broke even this weekend after losing my Leinster bet and winning my bet on Aironi.

PhatPiggins

Sexton out is a big blow. Cardiff +8 looks a solid bet

thomond2006

Feck, went for Leinster -7.

sock puppet

sock puppet wrote: »

20/1 on Carr being top try scorer maybe?

Bollocks wish I'd thrown a tenner on this now.

redroar1942

Connacht a very generous +11 for tonights game, if anyones interested.

PhatPiggins

Crap I knew there was something I forgot to do

Judgement Day

Me too but I've had such a bad run lately that I decided to it give a rest this weekend..typical.

LFC5Times

Munster 10/11 with P.Power, seems like a good price to me. On current form it's a great price but we all know form tends to go out the window in these games.

Didn't check the prices with any other bookies.

PS. Leinster are 10/11 also and the draw 18/1, might have a little saver on the draw too.


Opinions?

Gracelessly Tom

LFC5Times wrote: »

Munster 10/11 with P.Power, seems like a good price to me. On current form it's a great price but we all know form tends to go out the window in these games.

Didn't check the prices with any other bookies.

PS. Leinster are 10/11 also and the draw 18/1, might have a little saver on the draw too.


Opinions?

I've been firmly in the "Munster to win" camp up until the last few days. The more I think about it the harder this game is too call. Munster have been winning games but conceding points, Leinster have been fading in the last 20 or so minutes in a lot of their games and have yet to put out a first choice backline and pack together.

I think this could be a lot closer than I thought before. If Sexton plays it's a big boost for Leinster, I think the handicap will change as soon as the team is announced. If he's out I'd have Munster -4 or -5.

I'm praying Leinster can do it but even with my blue tinited glasses on I'd be putting my money on Munster. (Which I won't actually do as it would be sacrilege!!:D)

Judgement Day

It is indeed a hard one to call. Leinster in poor form and Munster still not really convincing, and in the Lion's Den, with the prospect of 5 in a row losses hanging over them. I have already gone with Munster by more than 15 @ 11/2 but I expect to go for the draw and some sensible options too.

Gracelessly Tom

Judgement Day wrote: »

It is indeed a hard one to call. Leinster in poor form and Munster still not really convincing, and in the Lion's Den, with the prospect of 5 in a row losses hanging over them. I have already gone with Munster by more than 15 @ 11/2 but I expect to go for the draw and some sensible options too.

Thats a brave bet!! Those odds seem quite low considering the handicap is scratch.

Best of luck with it but as a Leinster fan I hope it doesn't come in!;)

Blut2

Munster at Scratch look very good value to me too. I'm going to the game though and dont really want to be halfheartedly cheering for Leinster so I dont think I can bring myself to place more than a safety bet on Munster winning...sadly.

profitius

Blut2 wrote: »

Munster at Scratch look very good value to me too. I'm going to the game though and dont really want to be halfheartedly cheering for Leinster so I dont think I can bring myself to place more than a safety bet on Munster winning...sadly.

At least backing the opposition softens the blow a bit if your team loses.

PhatPiggins

Blut2 wrote: »

Munster at Scratch look very good value to me too. I'm going to the game though and dont really want to be halfheartedly cheering for Leinster so I dont think I can bring myself to place more than a safety bet on Munster winning...sadly.

You should never bet against your own team (reagrdless how sure you are of them losing), it always spoils your enjoyment.

I put a huge chunk on Perpie in the group game last year and it spoiled what was one of Munsters greatest performances.

allprops

Ulster a good bet for the ml. Won't be missing many players when the international season comes around. They've bought very well.

Judgement Day

PhatPiggins wrote: »

You should never bet against your own team (reagrdless how sure you are of them losing), it always spoils your enjoyment.

I put a huge chunk on Perpie in the group game last year and it spoiled what was one of Munsters greatest performances.

I agree but sometimes it can backfire spectacularly. Back in May 2009 I backed Munster, of course, to beat Leinster in the HC semi but half an hour before the match I had serious last minute doubts and thought of doing a bit of insurance betting on Leinster but my heart wouldn't let me and the rest is history.

wixfjord

Ressurecting this for the new HEC season! I think there was another one around but cant seem to find it?

Anyway Judgement Day, our resident gambling and Toulon expert will be providing us with expert tips throughout the year! Lets get going JD!

Couple of speculative bets for me today,
Perpignan at 6/5 away to Scarlets and Sarries +11 away to Clermont.
Plus a small accum on Clermont, Perpignan, Leicester, Leinster, London Irish and Cardiff. Fiver returns 31.30.

thomond2006

wixfjord wrote: »

Ressurecting this for the new HEC season! I think there was another one around but cant seem to find it?

Anyway Judgement Day, our resident gambling and Toulon expert will be providing us with expert tips throughout the year! Lets get going JD!

Couple of speculative bets for me today,
Perpignan at 6/5 away to Scarlets and Sarries +11 away to Clermont.
Plus a small accum on Clermont, Perpignan, Leicester, Leinster, London Irish and Cardiff. Fiver returns 31.30.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056007347&page=2

That would be my thread.

RuggieBear

posts moved

wixfjord

Aha sorry I searched for The Official Free Money Thread Thomond! Should of put that in the name it means guaranteed profit according to the Betfair forum!

RuggieBear

wixfjord wrote: »

Aha sorry I searched for The Official Free Money Thread Thomond! Should of put that in the name it means guaranteed profit according to the Betfair forum!

i've amended the name of this thread slightly

Judgement Day

Well after a good run with try scorers in the Ulster game and today Canterbury vs Southland by more than 3 points I've lost the run of myself - using winnings only - as follows:

Leinster by more than 9 points @ 10/11
BOD a try @ 12/5
More than 20.5 in the 1st half of Leinster game @ 5/6

Tim Visser to score a try in the Cardiff/Edinburgh game @ 5/2

Munster to win @ 11/8
Dougie Howlett a try @ 5/2
More than 20 points in the 1st half of Munster game @ 5/6

Jonny Wilkinson's Toulon vs Ospreys = a team that can't score tries vs a team with a fab backline but can they break down Toulon's strong defence? Can they keep Jonny out of reach of their posts = too close to call for me and no bets.



http://flickr.com/photos/19928634@N06/3828098026 = no copyright issues!

thomond2006

RuggieBear wrote: »

i've amended the name of this thread slightly

Jinxed.

Judgement Day

Judgement Day wrote: »

Well after a good run with try scorers in the Ulster game and today Canterbury vs Southland by more than 3 points I've lost the run of myself - using winnings only - as follows:

Leinster by more than 9 points @ 10/11
BOD a try @ 12/5
More than 20.5 in the 1st half of Leinster game @ 5/6

Tim Visser to score a try in the Cardiff/Edinburgh game @ 5/2

Munster to win @ 11/8
Dougie Howlett a try @ 5/2
More than 20 points in the 1st half of Munster game @ 5/6

Still up 51% on the weekend!

Jonny Wilkinson's Toulon vs Ospreys = a team that can't score tries vs a team with a fab backline but can they break down Toulon's strong defence? Can they keep Jonny out of reach of their posts = too close to call for me and no bets.

Toulon won 19-14 - glad I kept away from that one.

Judgement Day

Nothing much on offer tonight so I have gone with three simple bets as follows:

Connacht vs Bayonne - Connacht by more than 4 @10/11
Castres vs Cardiff - Castres by more than 5 @ 10/11
Ospreys vs London Irish - Ospreys by more than 7 @ 10/11

Fingers crossed.

Judgement Day

Judgement Day wrote: »

Nothing much on offer tonight so I have gone with three simple bets as follows:

Connacht vs Bayonne - Connacht by more than 4 @10/11 Connacht 16 Bayonne 13
Castres vs Cardiff - Castres by more than 5 @ 10/11 - Castres 27 Cardiff 20
Ospreys vs London Irish - Ospreys by more than 7 @ 10/11 - Ospreys 27 L.Irish 16

Fingers crossed.

It could have been worse.

profitius

Judgement Day wrote: »

It could have been worse.

Unlucky. If KEatley kicked better it would have come up.

I'm backing Ulster on sunday +10points (they're 11pts in some places).

thomond2006

I just put a substantial (for me) amount of money on Munster to win tommorrow at 3/10. Very much an impulse bet, I hope I don't regret it.

profitius

thomond2006 wrote: »

I just put a substantial (for me) amount of money on Munster to win tommorrow at 3/10. Very much an impulse bet, I hope I don't regret it.

Lets hope Toulon are not taking it too seriously. If they are it could be a close match.

Judgement Day

After mature reflection here are today's bets from a fool and his money.

Racing Metro vs Clermont - more than 20.5 in the 1st half @ 5/6
Northampton vs Edinburgh (in Edinburgh) - Edinburgh by more than 3 @ 15/8
Bath vs Aironi (H) - more than 21.5 points in the 1st half @ 5/6
Harlequins vs Cavalieri (H) - Harlequins to lead by more than 16 at halftime @ 10/11

Munster vs Toulon - Will there be a drop goal - Yes @ 10/11
Toulon by more than 7 @ 6/1
Munster by more than 8 @ 10/11
Toulon to score more than 17.5 @ 5/6

Dragons (H) vs Toulouse - more than 22.5 points in 1st half @ 5/6

Leinster vs Saracens - Leinster by more than 6 @ 11/4
and more than 21.5 points in 1st half @ 5/6

C'MON MUNSTER and Toulon.

Judgement Day

Judgement Day wrote: »

After mature reflection here are today's bets from a fool and his money.

Racing Metro vs Clermont - more than 20.5 in the 1st half @ 5/6 - 19
Northampton vs Edinburgh (in Edinburgh) - Edinburgh by more than 3 @ 15/8 - N'hants 31- Edinburgh 27
Bath vs Aironi (H) - more than 21.5 points in the 1st half @ 5/6 - 20
Harlequins vs Cavalieri (H) - Harlequins to lead by more than 16 at halftime @ 10/11

Munster vs Toulon - Will there be a drop goal - Yes @ 10/11 Jonny!
Toulon by more than 7 @ 6/1
Munster by more than 8 @ 10/11
Toulon to score more than 17.5 @ 5/6 - 18 phew!

Dragons (H) vs Toulouse - more than 22.5 points in 1st half @ 5/6 - 30

Leinster vs Saracens - Leinster by more than 6 @ 11/4 - 25-23
and more than 21.5 points in 1st half @ 5/6 - 23

C'MON MUNSTER and Toulon.

But for a few 'in play' bets on Leinster I would have been laughing - as it is I am just about still solvent for next weekend.

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

I just put a substantial (for me) amount of money on Munster to win tommorrow at 3/10. Very much an impulse bet, I hope I don't regret it.

Judgement Day

A few for tonight - fingers crossed.

Edinburgh vs Ulster (Murrayfield)

More than 18.5 points in 1st half @5/6
and Ruan Pienaar to score a try for Ulster @9/2

Munster vs Trevisio (Thomond Park)

Munster by more than 10 @ 1/3
and More than 22.5 points in the 1st half @ 5/6

Racing Metro vs Bayonne

Bayonne to score more than 15.5 points @ 5/6

sickpuppy

Judgement Day wrote: »

A few for tonight - fingers crossed.

Edinburgh vs Ulster (Murrayfield)

More than 18.5 points in 1st half @5/6
and Ruan Pienaar to score a try for Ulster @9/2

Munster vs Trevisio (Thomond Park)

Munster by more than 10 @ 1/3
and More than 22.5 points in the 1st half @ 5/6

Racing Metro vs Bayonne

Bayonne to score more than 15.5 points @ 5/6

More than 22.5 points is dodgey been pissing rain and windy which = handling errors more scrums delays etc.
On a fine day the bet would look good and id still expect munster to beat these guys handsomely and cover the 19 point handicap
but can see them keep it close for 50 55 mins and munster to get late scores.
With Buckley coming on late

thomond2006

Went for Munster -19 yesterday, not sure about it now. Weather has gone to shíte in Limerick today.

sickpuppy

The problem with big handicaps is once the jobs done 4 trys for the bonus teams often get sloppy.

And even a team as bad as Treviso will get some territory and some scores.

Munster tonight looked sloppy from the off silly penaltys going for the offload when setting up a ruck was the correct play.

Munster should have had there -19 pt backers comfortable after 50 mins but agood sweat on the outcome is always good.

thomond2006

sickpuppy wrote: »

The problem with big handicaps is once the jobs done 4 trys for the bonus teams often get sloppy.

And even a team as bad as Treviso will get some territory and some scores.

Munster tonight looked sloppy from the off silly penaltys going for the offload when setting up a ruck was the correct play.

Munster should have had there -19 pt backers comfortable after 50 mins but agood sweat on the outcome is always good.

All very true, good post.

Anyway who cares, I won and that's all that matters really!