Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

What a bet

Options
13»

Comments

  • Options
    #62
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Verance wrote: »
    Well the bookies disagree, they work the odds out the way myflipflops has, that's why no bookie would have layed 1000/1.

    Are you one of those people who thinks that if a favourite hasn't won all day the next fav has a better chance of winning?

    No.


  • Options
    #63
    heavyballs
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    Verance wrote: »
    Well the bookies disagree, they work the odds out the way myflipflops has, that's why no bookie would have layed 1000/1.

    Are you one of those people who thinks that if a favourite hasn't won all day the next fav has a better chance of winning?

    do you know anything about statistics?the next fav does have more of a statistical chance of winning if one hasn't won all day,


  • Options
    #64
    oneillMan999
    Registered Users Posts: 482 ✭✭oneillMan999


    i wonder what are the odds on them winnin 15 in a row?

    I cant see any team gettin to within 10 points of them in the next 10 years!!

    I hope this bet in killkenny is a true story, cause its one the punter will get over the bookie :D


  • Options
    #65
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    heavyballs wrote: »
    do you know anything about statistics?
    Well, I wouldn't call myself a statistician but did study it in college and have researched for gambling purposes.
    heavyballs wrote: »
    the next fav does have more of a statistical chance of winning if one hasn't won all day,
    No, that's wrong.

    I was going to use the analogy of black coming up on a roulette wheel ten times in a row and people thinking it's more likely that red will come up next.


  • Options
    #66
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Verance wrote: »
    No, that's wrong.

    I was going to use the analogy of black coming up on a roulette wheel ten times in a row and people thinking it's more likely that red will come up next.

    It's all about sample size. Toss a fair coin 10 times and the outcome will more than likely vary wildly. Toss the same coin a billion times and you'll find a 50/50 split.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #67
    nice1franko
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭nice1franko


    heavyballs wrote: »
    do you know anything about statistics?the next fav does have more of a statistical chance of winning if one hasn't won all day,

    Both Verance and L'prof are correct.

    Expecting a fav to win sooner rather than later has been the downfall of many a punter. As L'prof suggested, the sample size just isn't big enough.

    See also Martingale system, Results.


  • Options
    #68
    myflipflops
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭myflipflops


    L'prof wrote: »
    It's all about sample size. Toss a fair coin 10 times and the outcome will more than likely vary wildly. Toss the same coin a billion times and you'll find a 50/50 split.

    Yes but sample size only counts to future events. The results of past, unrelated events are meaningless.

    If you toss a coin a billion times and get heads every time, the likelihood of the next toss being heads is still 50/50.


  • Options
    #69
    nice1franko
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭nice1franko


    Perzacly, Proffessor Flip Flops. As my old daddy used to say "Luck has no memory".


  • Options
    #70
    PhatPiggins
    Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    Verance wrote: »
    Well, I wouldn't call myself a statistician but did study it in college and have researched for gambling purposes.

    No, that's wrong.

    I was going to use the analogy of black coming up on a roulette wheel ten times in a row and people thinking it's more likely that red will come up next.

    Are you trying to apply a study of roulette to the favourite in a sporting event?


  • Options
    #71
    Verance
    Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    PhatPiggins wrote: »
    Are you trying to apply a study of roulette to the favourite in a sporting event?
    Yup, no reds coming on a roulette wheel doesn't alter the true odds of the next colour being red, just as no favourites winning all day doesn't alter the true odds of the next favourite winning.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #72
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    myflipflops wrote: »
    Yes but sample size only counts to future events. The results of past, unrelated events are meaningless.

    If you toss a coin a billion times and get heads every time, the likelihood of the next toss being heads is still 50/50.

    So Kilkenny winning it the previous 4 years has no bearing on them winning it this year? I hear ya ;)


  • Options
    #73
    PhatPiggins
    Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    Verance wrote: »
    Yup, no reds coming on a roulette wheel doesn't alter the true odds of the next colour being red, just as no favourites winning all day doesn't alter the true odds of the next favourite winning.

    Roulette is random the odds never change sport isn't. There are external factors to why a horse/dog/team is a favourite you cant bundle the two same bracket.

    Sorry I just re read what you're getting at and agree


  • Options
    #74
    myflipflops
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭myflipflops


    L'prof wrote: »
    So Kilkenny winning it the previous 4 years has no bearing on them winning it this year? I hear ya ;)

    Unrelated results being the key part of the statement.

    Naturally, it's a related contingency in the Kilkenny example.


  • Options
    #75
    modmuffin
    Registered Users Posts: 407 ✭✭modmuffin


    myflipflops wrote: »
    If you toss a coin a billion times and get heads every time, the likelihood of the next toss being heads is still 50/50.

    Id say your being had with a double-sided coin! :D


  • Options
    #76
    YohanCabeye7
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭YohanCabeye7


    Sore one.


  • Options
    #77
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,008 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Who's backing them for the next 5?


  • Options
    #78
    Finical
    Registered Users Posts: 1,507 ✭✭✭Finical


    YohanCabeye7 wrote: »
    Sore one.
    I iz the one. :mad:

    I backed Tipp though today to make a profit. :(


  • Options
    #79
    patmac
    Registered Users Posts: 7,566 ✭✭✭patmac


    By the way LAdbrokes were offering 40/1 Kilkenny to win the next 5 including this one last Sunday, was tempted.


  • Options
    #80
    kingshankly
    Registered Users Posts: 7,542 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    oneillMan999 wrote: »
    i wonder what are the odds on them winnin 15 in a row?

    I cant see any team gettin to within 10 points of them in the next 10 years!!

    I hope this bet in killkenny is a true story, cause its one the punter will get over the bookie :D
    I think you meant 10 days not 10 years
    sorry couldn't resist


Advertisement