GAA Betting

MUFC91CS

MUFC91CS wrote: »

Looking at the Waterford SHC semi finals and actually can't believe how pp has priced these.

Mount Sion are 17/10 to beat De la salle on Saturday evening. De la Salle looked poor in qf win over tallow and mount Sion looked impressive over abbeyside in their qf. These teams met in the semi final in 2012 and de la Salle only narrowly won (by 4 if I remember correctly) and IMO DLS have regressed since then and ms have improved. Should be a pretty 50:50 game.

Dungarvan are also prived at 17/10 to beat ballygunner. Ballygunner have beaten dg already this year but DG really shot themselves in the foot by giving up an early lead so will surely learn from their mistakes this time around. The game is also out in fraher field. bg are rightly favourites but was expecting dg to be around 6/4.

Wouldnt be surprised to any pairing of the four teams in the final and I dont think there will be more then a few scores separating either game.

Mountsion 17/10 medium stake
Dungarvan 17/10 medium stake
MS & DG double small stake

Mount Sion won by 7. Dungarvan game is on tomorrow evening

Rasputin11

Looking at the total wides bet for the Senior Final tomorrow, over 18.5 5/6 and under 18.5 5/6, does 19 wides not seem like a big amount for a game between 2 good teams?

ianburke

MUFC91CS wrote: »

Mount Sion won by 7. Dungarvan game is on tomorrow evening

good shout.followed you with two singles and a small double. think they won by 3 in the end. no pressure on tomorrows game as money already in the bag nice tipping:)

Mountainlad

ianburke wrote: »

good shout.followed you with two singles and a small double. think they won by 3 in the end. no pressure on tomorrows game as money already in the bag nice tipping:)

They won by 7, 2-17 to 0-16.

ianburke

MUFC91CS wrote: »

Mount Sion won by 7. Dungarvan game is on tomorrow evening

Mountainlad wrote: »

They won by 7, 2-17 to 0-16.

cheers mate.their twitter must be wrong so says 2-13 to 0-16...doesnt matter anyways moneys in the bag. great tipping sir

zimmermania

Ido not know a lot about GAA betting but I was thinking of having €50 at evens both teams to score a goal in the senior football final with PP.Can any stats guy on here tell me if its a reasonable bet?

shmeee

zimmermania wrote: »

Ido not know a lot about GAA betting but I was thinking of having €50 at evens both teams to score a goal in the senior football final with PP.Can any stats guy on here tell me if its a reasonable bet?

From this years games involving both Kerry and Donegal.

From a Kerry point of view, they have scored a goal in 4 of their 5 games this year in the championship and conceded a goal in 4 of their 5 games also.

Now onto Donegal, they have scored in 3 from 5 games this championship and conceded in 2 from 5 games.

So looking at it from the point of both teams, Donegal look more capable of holding Kerry out but with Donaghy at Full Forward and 2 lads either side, there could be goals.

zimmermania

shmeee wrote: »

From this years games involving both Kerry and Donegal.

From a Kerry point of view, they have scored a goal in 4 of their 5 games this year in the championship and conceded a goal in 4 of their 5 games also.

Now onto Donegal, they have scored in 3 from 5 games this championship and conceded in 2 from 5 games.

So looking at it from the point of both teams, Donegal look more capable of holding Kerry out but with Donaghy at Full Forward and 2 lads either side, there could be goals.

Thanks for that,from what you stated it looks as if it is close enough to evens both teams to score a goal.I was thinking that with the tension and hectic pace that is likely to apply in the final nerves will be frayed and mistakes made and I am wondering if goal average increases or diminishes in finals compared to earlier matches/if you or anyone reading this might have info on past finals and goals scored.

ShamoBuc

zimmermania wrote: »

Thanks for that,from what you stated it looks as if it is close enough to evens both teams to score a goal.I was thinking that with the tension and hectic pace that is likely to apply in the final nerves will be frayed and mistakes made and I am wondering if goal average increases or diminishes in finals compared to earlier matches/if you or anyone reading this might have info on past finals and goals scored.

Stat for these kind of games can be quite deceiving. For example, Donegal scored 3 against Dublin I think, stats would have been strongly against that happening. All Ireland's can be very difficult games to follow stat wise. I think there have only been 3 or 4 drawn hurling finals in nearly 50 years but 2 of the have been this year and last year.
I would say evens is bang on the money. About half of the last 20 finals saw both teams score a goal. Toss a coss really, similar to putting 50 on black in roulette. But you get 70 mins of high ocatane value for the gaa bet. Best of luck!

Mountainlad

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Stat for these kind of games can be quite deceiving. For example, Donegal scored 3 against Dublin I think, stats would have been strongly against that happening. All Ireland's can be very difficult games to follow stat wise. I think there have only been 3 or 4 drawn hurling finals in nearly 50 years but 2 of the have been this year and last year.
I would say evens is bang on the money. About half of the last 20 finals saw both teams score a goal. Toss a coss really, similar to putting 50 on black in roulette. But you get 70 mins of high ocatane value for the gaa bet. Best of luck!

3 drawn finals in a row, last one previous was 1963.

Wouldn't be backing Kerry to score a goal in the final to be honest. Donegal are built around stopping teams scoring them. Dublin got none (though they should have first half) last day. In 2012, Mayo didn't get a goal. With that much emphasis on it, I don't see the 50/50 the bookies are offering as value.

MUFC91CS

ianburke wrote: »

good shout.followed you with two singles and a small double. think they won by 3 in the end. no pressure on tomorrows game as money already in the bag nice tipping:)

Cheers man. Was down at the game and 7 points was probably flattering but they were the better. They were playing against the ref as well. Hopefully dungarvan can do it tomorrow evening. Out of the two of them I would have fancied mount Sion to beat de la Salle more so then dungarvan beating ballygunner but it should be close.

ShamoBuc

Mountainlad wrote: »

3 drawn finals in a row, last one previous was 1963.

Wouldn't be backing Kerry to score a goal in the final to be honest. Donegal are built around stopping teams scoring them. Dublin got none (though they should have first half) last day. In 2012, Mayo didn't get a goal. With that much emphasis on it, I don't see the 50/50 the bookies are offering as value.

Didn't know the exact stat but none in 60 years and then 3 in a row show the unpredictable nature of these games. Football is of course different but personally I would see it as a coin toss her rather than avalue bet.

Mountainlad

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Didn't know the exact stat but none in 60 years and then 3 in a row show the unpredictable nature of these games. Football is of course different but personally I would see it as a coin toss her rather than avalue bet.

Agree, and in that sense the bookies have it priced exactly right.

MUFC91CS

zimmermania wrote: »

Ido not know a lot about GAA betting but I was thinking of having €50 at evens both teams to score a goal in the senior football final with PP.Can any stats guy on here tell me if its a reasonable bet?

I wouldn't back it personally. We know what Donegals defence is like and Kerry also play quite deep.

Actually think no goalscorer at 8/1 is pretty good value on PP. This will be my only bet on the game

zimmermania

Mountainlad wrote: »

3 drawn finals in a row, last one previous was 1963.

Wouldn't be backing Kerry to score a goal in the final to be honest. Donegal are built around stopping teams scoring them. Dublin got none (though they should have first half) last day. In 2012, Mayo didn't get a goal. With that much emphasis on it, I don't see the 50/50 the bookies are offering as value.

I looked for advice and I got it and though my gut instinct says one thing I wont be having the bet

shmeee

zimmermania wrote: »

I looked for advice and I got it and though my gut instinct says one thing I wont be having the bet

And Kerry score a goal after 50 seconds. Jayus.

ShamoBuc

shmeee wrote: »

And Kerry score a goal after 50 seconds. Jayus.

But Donegal didn't! Glad he kept his money in his pocket.

zimmermania

shmeee wrote: »

And Kerry score a goal after 50 seconds. Jayus.

There is little point in seeking advice and not taking it,i did get a modest profit on the match I really wanted to have some kind of bet on.I put €20 on Kerry at evens to score the first point,so instead of being down 50 I am up 20.

ianburke

MUFC91CS wrote: »

Cheers man. Was down at the game and 7 points was probably flattering but they were the better. They were playing against the ref as well. Hopefully dungarvan can do it tomorrow evening. Out of the two of them I would have fancied mount Sion to beat de la Salle more so then dungarvan beating ballygunner but it should be close.

unlucky mate. was keeping updated on twitter. lead by a couple pts with 10mins left then 2pts down in injury time and missed a great goal chance apparently.

two good shouts mate

Hammer Archer

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Hate tipping against my club but....
Ballinabrackey are 5/2 with PP to beat Ratoath in the Meath IFC semi final on Sunday evening. Ratoath have had ridiculously short odds to win the IFC all season and, on paper, they would have the best team.

But they were beaten by Ballivor in the group stages a lot more comfortably than the one point margin suggests. Ballinabrackey then beat Ballivor last weekend by 11 points while Ratoath were insanely lucky to beat Syddan after extra time (they were 7 points down with 15 minutes left).

They will more than likely have Joey Wallace back for Sunday but a lot of players have only recently come back from the States so aren't 100% fit. Also in my opinion then management team aren't the most tactically aware.

Now obviously Ballinabrackey aren't guaranteed to win, but if they can hold Wallace and McMahon, they should win. Either way, 5/2 is a massive price for a team with the likes of Damien Carroll and Chris O'Connor at their disposal.

Ballinabrackey won by a point.
And that was with only 14 men for two-thirds of the game. Really was an insanely large price for them.

djPSB

Dubs at 6/4 to win the football next year?

robbiezero

djPSB wrote: »

Dubs at 5/4 to win the football next year?

Wouldn't think there is much value in that. Whatever they do in Leinster next year won't count for much as the other teams are miles off. So I would find it hard to believe that you wouldn't get better odds backing them to win q/f, s/f and then final. I would imagine that they would be a good
They need to do a bit of rebuilding also and re-evaluating their style of play, probably need at least 1 new midfielder and a stopper at centre back, and possibly a few corner backs too.

mufc1993

I see over 1.5 minutes injury time at the end of the 2nd half in the hurling replay is 1/2. Now I know only 1 minute was added on in the first game but would I be right in saying its nearly always at least 2 minutes added on at the end of a game?

Hulk Hands

robbiezero wrote: »

Wouldn't think there is much value in that. Whatever they do in Leinster next year won't count for much as the other teams are miles off. So I would find it hard to believe that you wouldn't get better odds backing them to win q/f, s/f and then final. I would imagine that they would be a good
They need to do a bit of rebuilding also and re-evaluating their style of play, probably need at least 1 new midfielder and a stopper at centre back, and possibly a few corner backs too.

I dunno, starting to think the opposite. Obviously theyre 1/50 shots to make the QF so can discount that. They'll likely be playing a qualifier in the QF there also. Looking at what they were this year, 1/10 to win Leinster, 1/10 vs Monaghan, 1/7 vs Donegal, and had they beaten Donegal, 2/7 vs Kerry in Final. That's only giving 4/5. Even if they were to play Donegal next week after falling apart a few weeks ago, they'd still be 1/3 shots. They'd still be 2/7 vs Kerry/Mayo. All this is forgetting that Mayo/Donegal should be due a slight regression, with only Kerry on the same level next year. I wont back it because I can probably wait until Febuary and get the same price then. It looks big though

keane2097

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I dunno, starting to think the opposite. Obviously theyre 1/50 shots to make the QF so can discount that. They'll likely be playing a qualifier in the QF there also. Looking at what they were this year, 1/10 to win Leinster, 1/10 vs Monaghan, 1/7 vs Donegal, and had they beaten Donegal, 2/7 vs Kerry in Final. That's only giving 4/5. Even if they were to play Donegal next week after falling apart a few weeks ago, they'd still be 1/3 shots. They'd still be 2/7 vs Kerry/Mayo. All this is forgetting that Mayo/Donegal should be due a slight regression, with only Kerry on the same level next year. I wont back it because I can probably wait until Febuary and get the same price then. It looks big though

They won't be 2/7 against Kerry next year with Gooch and Walsh involved. Shouldn't be 2/7 even without them.

Copper_pipe

Drom Broadford -3 vs Ballylanders @ 13/10 Throw in 8:15


My own club, have seen em in training this week, flying it!

geffc

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Drom Broadford -3 vs Ballylanders @ 13/10 Throw in 8:15


My own club, have seen em in training this week, flying it!

Drom lost 2-10 to 0-12

Mountainlad

How is Jackie Tyrell 4/5 for an al star? Paul Murphy has been Kilkenny's best in the full back line this year and is 11/10 to get one. Cathal Barrett was Tipp's best player v Limerick I thought, and has continued that form right through to winning man of the match 3 weeks ago.

11/8 he's surely value. Even JJ at 2/1 looks good considering none of the other 4 ahead of him are actually full backs but if you were asking me now how the full back line would look I'd be saying Paul Murphy, Seamus Hickey, Cathal Barrett.


On Tipp to lift the trophy at EVENS

Anyone know if the Boylesports sharpshooter would have the consideration that 0-05 and 1-02 are the same score and not a case of the 0-05 wins for scoring more times?

If not, than Lar Corbett at 11/2 looks a good bet to me.

ForeverYoung90

Austin Stacks play West Kerry tomorrow in the county championship.Ive been told that Stacks are quietly confident of winning this game easily enough by 8 or 9 points.
This side have been knocking on the door now the last 4/5 years and with South Kerry who were favourites losing today the path is set up for them to go all the way.They have such a stong panel that their winning kerry minor players aren't even in the panel of 30.Donaghy is in great form of course and Bohane another strong county player.

Paddy Power have -3 handicap @10/11

grattanspuds

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Austin Stacks play West Kerry tomorrow in the county championship.Ive been told that Stacks are quietly confident of winning this game easily enough by 8 or 9 points.
This side have been knocking on the door now the last 4/5 years and with South Kerry who were favourites losing today the path is set up for them to go all the way.They have such a stong panel that their winning kerry minor players aren't even in the panel of 30.Donaghy is in great form of course and Bohane another strong county player.

Paddy Power have -3 handicap @10/11

West Kerry would have the Gaeltacht lads wouldn't they? Have they any other county players?