Heatwave in August?

WolfeIRE

Thread for discussion on possibility of a heatwave this month


To start off here is monthly outlook by BBC.

Published at 10:00, 2 August
(Next update at 10:00, 9 August)
Written by Philip Avery

Summary

Little sign of a long, hot summer

Statistics, as we all know, can hide the truth of the matter. By the latter part of July, the UK had received 146% of its average July rainfall.
Scotland, Wales as a whole and Northern Ireland all received over 150% of their monthly average. Capel Curig in north Wales received a hefty 340mm of rain. England too saw some 103% of its average, but parts of East Anglia and the southeast received just 20% of the average - only 5mm in places.
It is also worthy of note that Northern Ireland experienced its dullest July since records began in 1927. It was also notably cloudy across northwest England, north Wales and the west of Scotland.
Monday 2 August 2010 to Sunday 8 August 2010
Gardeners' delight but dismay for holidaymakers

A weak ridge of high pressure will fail to kill off showers across eastern Britain on Monday. More western areas should experience a drier and somewhat brighter day. Even here, Atlantic fronts will eventually spread cloud and some patchy rain to northwest Scotland and the far west of Northern Ireland by the end of the day.
The rain should have cleared much of Scotland and Northern Ireland by Tuesday. The remnants of the front will drift into western England and Wales, but rainfall amounts will be minimal. Southern and eastern England may see the odd shower but should stay dry. Rain may run into southern England overnight but be gone by Wednesday day. Rain or showers will lie across Scotland and Northern Ireland by this stage.
Thursday looks to be a cool, showery day for all but the south of Wales and southwest England. More fronts may bring rain back into the west of the British Isles by Friday.

Monday 9 August 2010 to Sunday 15 August 2010
High pressure builds but fails to settle the north

The unsettled weather seen across the British Isles during the first week in August will gradually become confined to northern parts. High pressure builds across the south to bring a settled spell to south wales and southwest England.
On the whole, it should be drier than normal in many parts, although northern Scotland may see further rain. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal norm, possibly slightly above in the sunnier south.

Monday 16 August 2010 to Sunday 29 August 2010
Chance of hot weather marking the end of August

The second half of the month will see further spells of rain across northern Britain and also at times in western areas. Wet weather in the west will be transitory with a good deal of dry weather here. More may be expected in the south and east.
Temperatures will be at or above the seasonal norm with a low chance that a spell of hot, sunny weather may affect wales and southern England.
Rain fall will be average or below, especially in southeast England.

lord lucan

I shouldn't have read that,i'm even more depressed now!:(

Birdnuts

Not suprised - The models suggest that this August will fail to deliver, just like 9 out of the previous 10 in the last decade:(

WolfeIRE

not next week anyway:(

met eireann
The weather will be cool and very unsettled on MONDAY, TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY of next week with heavy showers or longer spells of rain in all areas.

Mobhi1

GFS and ECM both have LP to our east for next week now; the HP has retreated further to the southwest.

pauldry

No real prolonged hot spells for August just maybe the odd warm day in the second half of the month. It will feel quite Autumnal unfortunately.

Su Campu

GFS and ECMWF are increasingly agreeing on a 90° progressive phase shift in the global pattern over the next week, with ridging on the US west coast expanding eastwards, shifting the persistant upper low over east Canada eastwards over the Atlantic. This puts the jetstream on a track to the north of us, causing the Azores High to expand and establish itself over us by the end of next week.

Not sure how stable this setup would be, as at this time of the year as low pressures tend to reside on the east of continents and highs over the western ocean, so this shift would be going against the grain. But with a bit of luck the high could remain, though at the moment it looks like initially feeding a west to northwest airflow over us, more conducive to low level cloud decks than heatwaves. If it were to expand further north and east of us, with a cutoff low over Biscay/Iberia, then that would be our best bet for heat. The 12Z ECMWF hints at that starting to happen out at 240hrs, but that is subject to change of course.

delw

cheers SU CAMPU,mt touched on this as well in his update so with both of you saying similar there is hope yet,but as you say it is against the grain however fingers crossed

thetonynator

Indian summer ftw!!!

Gonzo

The summer is screwed, the last few days have been very chilly at times, I know back in the beginning of July once the Atlantic showed signs of a breakdown in the dry warmish spell we had all June, that it marked the end of summer. We have more than made up for the dry weather with another record breaking wet July and now were in for a cool and propably wet August. At this stage all I can hope for is that the Atlantic eventually settles down mid November in tune for a very cold winter.

thetonynator

Gonzo wrote: »

The summer is screwed, the last few days have been very chilly at times, I know back in the beginning of July once the Atlantic showed signs of a breakdown in the dry warmish spell we had all June, that it marked the end of summer. We have more than made up for the dry weather with another record breaking wet July and now were in for a cool and propably wet August. At this stage all I can hope for is that the Atlantic eventually settles down mid November in tune for a very cold winter.

I have to disagree with this; extremely dry december, january, february, april, may and june, with average or slightly less than average march and april aren't made up for by one very wet month. I'm not saying that it will be made up for, but one wet onth doesn't make a wet year.

compsys

thetonynator wrote: »

I have to disagree with this; extremely dry december, january, february, april, may and june, with average or slightly less than average march and april aren't made up for by one very wet month. I'm not saying that it will be made up for, but one wet onth doesn't make a wet year.

Yeah, but July was still a depressing month and difficult to bear. People keep saying:' Oh but we had a dry January, February and March'. Who cares if the winter months are dry: you want the nice sunny dry weather in summer when you can go out and do something in it.

The past three years have been pretty miserable weather wise. Dry winters and wet summers. The complete opposite of what you want in Ireland.

thetonynator

compsys wrote: »

Yeah, but July was still a depressing month and difficult to bear. People keep saying:' Oh but we had a dry January, February and March'. Who cares if the winter months are dry: you want the nice sunny dry weather in summer when you can go out and do something in it.

The past three years have been pretty miserable weather wise. Dry winters and wet summers. The complete opposite of what you want in Ireland.

We haven't had ry winters up until this year, and even this year we had a record wet november.

Also, we had may and june extremely dry, both summer months, plenty of opportunity to go out and do things.

yuloni

This post has been deleted.

jambofc

thetonynator wrote: »

We haven't had ry winters up until this year, and even this year we had a record wet november.

Also, we had may and june extremely dry, both summer months, plenty of opportunity to go out and do things.

does it really matter if the weather was dry in winter or not??
people really wanted a good summer yes it was a lovely june,but july has been a washout and august is going the same way,after a very cold winter(i love them,bit more snow would have been nice in meath)i was hoping for a long hot summer,apart from a couple of weeks it hasn't come,the kids are sitting about i only got to cut my grass for the first time in about 3 weeks yesterday :eek:
summer is for sun and heat and we are heading into autumn soon not really what anybody wanted,maybe you are happy to be stuck in the house in july but i most certainly am not happy about it,there are plenty months ahead for that.....

Gonzo

Ive had enough of this crap summer weather, off to Spain next week for 2 weeks of real summer weather, im not gonna spend the rest of the summer looking out at grey skies and rain. There hasnt been a sunny day since the kids got off school 1st week of July.

Graces7

August 17th will be HOT...

We have a long journey/drive with the animals on board so it is bound to be HOT and sticky.. Not cool like today.

Watch and see:D

compsys

thetonynator wrote: »

We haven't had ry winters up until this year, and even this year we had a record wet november.

Also, we had may and june extremely dry, both summer months, plenty of opportunity to go out and do things.

Yes, November was wet, but the real winter months of December, January and February were all extremely dry.

Also, from memory I think the last few winters have been reasonably dry, at least in the East.

Yeah, May and June were OK, but they were hardly amazing either. You want the really good weather in July, August and early September when the temps can get really high. Temps barely got much above 20 for all of May and June anywhere in the country.

Su Campu

12Z ECMWF and GFS still in agreement about the High staying in place through next weekend, with it moving off a bit to the northeast thereafter

ECMWF (500hPa and SLP)
12Z Sat 15th August

Joe Public

Gonzo wrote: »

Ive had enough of this crap summer weather, off to Spain next week for 2 weeks of real summer weather, im not gonna spend the rest of the summer looking out at grey skies and rain. There hasnt been a sunny day since the kids got off school 1st week of July.

I've witnessed plenty of sunny days in July, not as good as June but nevertheless not bad.

!Pablo Fanquez!

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

Sup. From up here on the Moon, I can see the weather as it's coming in. Gonna be a cloudy weekend hombres.
For those who don't use google earth there is a flash version on http://www.flashearth.com/ which NASA provide a daily updated link.
Just type any location into the search bar.
Incidentally the forest fires in Moscow Russia can clearly be seen.
Enjoy!

Deep Easterly

I really hope the latest ecmwf run is wrong in its forecast for a strenghening jet to the the northeast of the high before it has a chance to ridge into eastern Europe: (216hrs chart)



while the above would still bring relatively pleasant sunny weather, it wouldn't draw in any significant heat from the continent and more importantly, it would prevent any potentially thundery plumes that might develop over Biscay from making any inroads over Ireland.

However, it is just one run....

dfbemt

thetonynator wrote: »

We haven't had ry winters up until this year, and even this year we had a record wet november.

Also, we had may and june extremely dry, both summer months, plenty of opportunity to go out and do things.

But the kids are in school until the end of June !!

People want to take their holidays, go out and do things when the kids are off school.

Whatever happened to the summers of past?

BEASTERLY

dfbemt wrote: »

Whatever happened to the summers of past?

We stopped manufacturing rose tinted glasses;)

thetonynator

compsys wrote: »

Yeah, May and June were OK, but they were hardly amazing either. You want the really good weather in July, August and early September when the temps can get really high. Temps barely got much above 20 for all of May and June anywhere in the country.

Temperatures may not have gotten very high, but they got to a reasonable level (i.e. above 20) most days from mid may til the end of June. We had consistant sunshine and very little rain.

To be honest, i'd prefer get 6 weeks of weather like that than a 2 week heatwave in August with uncomfortable heat.

Deep Easterly

thetonynator wrote: »

Temperatures may not have gotten very high, but they got to a reasonable level (i.e. above 20) most days from mid may til the end of June.

Yep, my personal highest temp of the of 2010 so far (I still cling on to a shred of hope) occurred in May which isn't even a summer month.

High temp in April: 20.4c
High temp in July: 20.9c :rolleyes:

Redsunset

Don't wanna jinx it but its looking very good now for a brief warm spell and i'd bank this chart any day.

mike65

Promising though the high pressure doesn't actually settle if the GFS can be relied upon. It simply moves in a north east direction over us then leaves...

Redsunset

Yeah like i say it looks brief,as in a few days at best but you never know.
Looking to get established from thursday with the 564 line riding up on west side of high.
As high centre approaches and moves east,northeast that warmer airmass wedge (564 thickness line) could easily stay somewhat intact and envelope parts if not all of the country giving a pleasantly sub-tropical feel for a time,especially at night (kick off the duvet period)before eventually bein pushed south.

alanajane

jambofc wrote: »

does it really matter if the weather was dry in winter or not??
people really wanted a good summer yes it was a lovely june,but july has been a washout and august is going the same way,after a very cold winter(i love them,bit more snow would have been nice in meath)i was hoping for a long hot summer,apart from a couple of weeks it hasn't come,the kids are sitting about i only got to cut my grass for the first time in about 3 weeks yesterday :eek:
summer is for sun and heat and we are heading into autumn soon not really what anybody wanted,maybe you are happy to be stuck in the house in july but i most certainly am not happy about it,there are plenty months ahead for that.....

yes I agree 100% with you, I so sick of not being able to go out for walk without sunscreen, umbrella and wooly coat, total pain in the ass.

Not

Joe Public wrote: »

I've witnessed plenty of sunny days in July, not as good as June but nevertheless not bad.

But its been mostly sun through gaps in grey purple rain bearing clouds, so you just dont know if it will be lashing rain 20 (or even 5) minutes later

pauldry

Joe Public wrote: »

I've witnessed plenty of sunny days in July, not as good as June but nevertheless not bad.

Maybe in Leinster and Munster but in Connaught it was the Dullest July in manys a long year (1927 in Ulster!)

WolfeIRE

Weather situation looking good out to Monday on the latest GFS


Things look like drying out from tomorrow afternoon onwards, with the exception of Ulster and N Connaught which may see some light rain or drizzle on Wednesday. Saturday might also bring some light rain or drizzle to the west coast. Irish sea coastal areas may also see some light rain/drizzle on sunday morn.

Temps look like hitting high teens from Thursday onwards and the low 20s at the weekend, the best of the temps in the Mid West.

Fingers crossed that later runs will further improve our prospects.

lucy2010

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Weather situation looking good out to Monday on the latest GFS


Things look like drying out from tomorrow afternoon onwards, with the exception of Ulster and N Connaught which may see some light rain or drizzle on Wednesday. Saturday might also bring some light rain or drizzle to the west coast. Irish sea coastal areas may also see some light rain/drizzle on sunday morn.

Temps look like hitting high teens from Thursday onwards and the low 20s at the weekend, the best of the temps in the Mid West.

Fingers crossed that later runs will further improve our prospects.

Hey wolfe, Baby wolfe must be getting big now!

Anyway I cant remember what channel it was but they were suggesting a breaking down of the blocking in mid europe to all the russian heat over to us togive us a scorcer to the end of august ?Any sign yet ?

WolfeIRE

lucy2010 wrote: »

Hey wolfe, Baby wolfe must be getting big now!

Anyway I cant remember what channel it was but they were suggesting a breaking down of the blocking in mid europe to all the russian heat over to us togive us a scorcer to the end of august ?Any sign yet ?

Hi Lucy. 7 months now and all is well thanks:)

Joe Bastardi of Accuweather mentions a break around august 15th (end of weekend).
Whether this will have some effect on our weather remains to be seen. Model outputs from next 2-3 days will tell all

JOE B post:
SATURDAY 11 AM

Pattern in Europe to give break to Russia after 15 August.
There severity of the heat this summer in areas of eastern Europe is similar to what happened in 2003, BUT FURTHER EAST. The fact is that a warm summer was called for from this forecaster for much of Europe back in the late winter. Its not brain surgery..reversing enso signal warm amo, warm mediterranean and that is what happens One only need look at the blend of similar situations via analogs to see this. The analogs of 1995,1998,2003,2005,2007, with el nino winters before show not only the temps for the summer in Europe, but in the US too. Which should further leave mouths wide open as to how this summer in the US, and in europe into Asia should have been a slam dunk for forecasters! At the very least, the US gov idea of a cool winter here in the states was borderline laughable, given history. To take it one step further, and then blame global warming for a forecast you did not see ... its like a vaudeville show
Meanwhile, in the southern hemisphere we are seeing examples of severe cold. But remember we dont have as much land there , so its impossible to see as much cold in the southern hemisphere, as warmth in the northern hemisphere.

Now remember, there is a heck of a lot less land in the southern hemisphere for extreme cold to show up over than there is land in the northern hemisphere for extreme heat ( or cold) Asia is going to have a brutal winter this year, perhaps in line with the winter of 05-06. But the fact is that when dealing with the energy considerations needed for a true representation of what the global energy balance is, the change over the southern hemisphere in temperature masks counter cooling that may be occurring. The point is the same pattern producing the increase in sea ice in the southern hemisphere is impressive as the pattern that has produced a decrease in sea ice in the northern hemisphere. The extremes over land will be much greater than the extremes over water, but in terms of the energy considerations, they changes may be small. We will find all this out over the coming year.

In any case I expect the areas frying in the eastern part of Europe ( Moscow) to break but overall the warm euro summer, which one could see simply by matching up the analogs, that was coming is certainly here

thanks for reading, ciao for now ****

WolfeIRE

BBC Monthly outlook with references to Ireland
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209/

thetonynator

lovely day here today, constant sunshine since about 11.30, a few drops of rain before that. feels really warm, above 20 most of the day i'd say . . .

M.T. Cranium

This is the raw output from the GFS for temperatures in Ireland away from the cooling effects of sea breezes:

Max temps (C)

Tues 10th ... 18
Wed 11th ... 19
Thurs 12th .. 20
Fri 13th ...... 22
Sat 14th .... 24
Sun 15th ... 25
Mon 16th .. 27
Tues 17th .. 26

and while I don't consider the longer time frame all that reliable, the trend on the model is then just slowly back down towards 20 C.

One always has to ask, what could go wrong? Well, first of all, the warm ridge could decide not to build east and stay in the eastern Atlantic making this warmup too fast. Or large patches of low stratus cloud could develop and hold temperatures down. These are not indications supported by any models at present, so I think this scenario is looking at least 70% likely.

Towards the 17th the Russian heat wave flattens out and the core of the heat there moves towards Poland and Belarus. The indications are for some of the heat (and therefore the smoke trapped in the southeast flow) might drift as far west as Germany, but around the time that the warm high over Ireland and northern France begins to weaken and higher pressure near Iceland sends in fresher air (still rather warm) from the northeast. So the current indication would be for the smoke to disperse very gradually over central Europe and for any slight effects to drain into north-central France and then southward. But it remains possible for some of this smoke to show up in southeast England in very diluted form (like a six mile visibility in haze rather than the quarter mile in smoke they are getting in Moscow).

I hope you good people get this warm spell, I'm sure it will help both agriculture and tourism no end to have a week of warm, sunny weather.

Gonzo

im off 2 spain for 2 weeks and just as im about to leave the Irish weather finally shows signs of improving and the forecast for the region of Spain im heading to is not that great with heavy showers and some thunderstorms starting from Friday:)

lord lucan

Gonzo wrote: »

and some thunderstorms starting from Friday:)

Don't forget to pack the camera!;)

jambofc

charts a changeing looks like we will be lucky to get the weekend out of this "heatwave"

pauldry

Yup same ol story. 22 or 23 at best for the met stations. Maybe theyl squeeze a 24.

Next heatwave is next May:rolleyes:

Not

pauldry wrote: »

Yup same ol story. 22 or 23 at best for the met stations. Maybe theyl squeeze a 24.

Next heatwave is next May:rolleyes:

Sounds like someone will be going around in woolly jumpers moaning its squeezing cold while everyone else will be enjoying the very pleasant 22 or 23 or 24 :rolleyes::pac::D

Bring on 22 or 23 ...:) or 24 ...:cool: you're all very welcome.

jambofc

no heatwave here,nothing to see move along now......

Saturday looks not to bad for the east south east and dry sunday,but looking at charts it's rain all the way next week.......:mad:

nacho libre

jambofc wrote: »

no heatwave here,nothing to see move along now......

Saturday looks not to bad for the east south east and dry sunday,but looking at charts it's rain all the way next week.......:mad:

given the pattern we've had of late i wouldn't rule out an indian summer just yet!

WolfeIRE

the current dry-ish spell ending on Tuesday morn according to GFS.

Atlantic influence reestablishes and it looks quite unsettled for the middle days of next week.

owenc

WolfeIRE wrote: »

the current dry-ish spell ending on Tuesday morn according to GFS.

Atlantic influence reestablishes and it looks quite unsettled for the middle days of next week.

Oh good a few days of 23c and wall to wall sunshine and then back to 14c temps and we can go straight to autumn temps great!:cool:

Birdnuts

owenc wrote: »

Oh good a few days of 23c and wall to wall sunshine and then back to 14c temps and we can go straight to autumn temps great!:cool:

Yeah - I think the game is up after next monday for summer 2010, might get a few nice days in September but then that is an autumn months and the days will be getting much shorter:(

owenc

Birdnuts wrote: »

Yeah - I think the game is up after next monday for summer 2010, might get a few nice days in September but then that is an autumn months and the days will be getting much shorter:(

Ugh naw why would you want any more warm days after this, over on netweather them ones in the southeast are talking about 20c days in october and i'm going to vomit! I want cold not more 20c!:mad: I'm sick too death of being all sweaty and itchy its so **** and anyway when its 20c its always cloudy and raining!

mike65

Can someone put this thread out of its misery. Whatever chance we had has now gone.

WolfeIRE

ME for tomorrow
Warm and dry tomorrow Sunday with sunny spells in all areas. Top afternoon temperatures 19 to 23 C., - highest in the Midwest and Southwest.

From MT
SUNDAY ... sunny with cloudy intervals, hazy, quite warm, highs 21-23 C but low cloud may be present near west coast at times with sea fog.

Monday will see a heavy band of rain moves east across the country in the late evening, introducing us back into the familiar pattern of frontal systems spreading in from the atlantic.

Dry day everywhere tomorrow so make the most of it.