Galway Festival - Day 4 Selections

x PyRo

1:50 Galway - Hot Oscar - .5pts e/w @ 14/1 (PaddyPower)

Impressed me enough last time out to suggest he could make an impact here, one of only two horses who like to make the running and front runners have been doing excellently here this week. This is only a maiden chase so a lot of them are inexperienced over fences but this fellow took to them well in a similar contest at Downpatrick in May when he tried to make all but just got headed before the last and stayed on to come a 1/2 length second. There may be more to come from him especially with that run behind him. Trained by Charlie Swan and he's a good trainer who has had a few winners of late, David Casey takes the ride and he gets on well with the horse, having won on him before in Wexford. Will stay this far and if he manages to get a handy lead I feel he'll be dangerous as his jumping is sound usually and Casey is a capable jockey. The ground is also ideal as it is, but the quicker it is the better. Good place claims getting 5lbs from the field. Small each way bet as something always seems to come out of the woodwork in these races. Avoiding the Weld horse may also prove a mistake and the Elliot horse looks to have plenty of ability too but at 3/1 & 4/1 (Forecasts) I don't want to get involved. My selection should be the guts of 14/1 and stands a better chance than that based on his run last time out.

2:25 Galway - Cruising Katie - .5pts e/w @ 13/2 (VC)

Awful race to call but I'm sticking with this one who won impressively last time out scoring by 10 lengths from Coscorrig over 2m 3f at Limerick. Was suited by the strong pace that day and with no less than 6 front runners in this race I feel she'll get a good steady gallop and could pick them up late on. Steps back in trip which isn't a problem, versatile ground wise and has a decent 5lb claimer on board too. Very tough race to be confident about any but if she runs in the same vain as last time and handles the tricky track I feel she has to have a good chance. Bred with a perfect mixture of speed and stamina and is open to lots of improvement over these bigger obstacles, took her until her fourth chase until she won, was very luck that day with another horse falling at the last but she was 10 lengths clear of the rest. Should strip fitter for those two runs and is worth a small each way at likely odds of around 8/1.

3:00 Galway - Separate Ways - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

I'm probably mad going against Weld again but this one came second in this race last year off the same mark, hit 1.05 in running and should of won. Good jockey, ground should be ideal and has won twice over this distance. Could be handicapped back into things and should come on for that recent run at Leopardstown. Highly drawn in stall 14 (of 18) which is perfect, versatile tactically, can be held up or tracking the leaders and most of his best form has come from when sitting around 4th or 5th. Ended up racing in rear on the last couple of occasions and I wouldn't be surprised if this has been the aim since coming second last year. First time blinkers also is very interesting, could well spark more improvement and here's hoping he takes to them first time. Should be the guts of 12/1 and looks a good each way bet if building on previous form here last year.


3:35 Galway - Mean Lae - .5pts e/w @ 25/1 (PaddyPower)

Risky one, can't really call the race at all but Bolger/Manning won this race last year so I'll side with them again this year. This filly hasn't won since landing a handicap in August last year at Dundalk. She has more ability than she has show of late and ran alright last time out when 5th in a handicap at Fairyhouse, didn't look hard pushed though and it was her second run in 4 days which probably took its toll. The ground was also a little fast for her I'd imagine and she's likely to get more suitable ground today. Bolger hasn't had a winner at the festival this year and this is one of only two he has out tomorrow. She looks like she's falling to a winnable mark and after having a month off she should be fit and ready for this test. Drawn very well in 14 and has two speedy sorts beside her on the rail that will likely be battling it out for the lead, she may well end up getting a lovely position sitting in behind them and if she's up to this standard it should be ideal for her style. Opposing the likely Weld favourite again, but she hasn't won for two years and carries top weight here but it would be no surprise to see her win but she's opposable due to the weight and struggles she seems to have winning. Will probably be short enough in the betting too, so I'll have a small e/w bet on the Bolger horse who is currently around 20/1 on the exchanges and will hopefully be similar come morning. Not without a chance if finding the ability that I feel is there.

4:10 Galway - Aughwilliam Lady - .5pts e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Won a competitive maiden hurdle at Clonmel quite well, stepped up to 3 miles last time out and only managed to come second but left herself with too much to do and made a couple of mistakes late on, stepping back to 2m 4f will help and with a bit of natural progression I could see her getting involved here. Don't know anything about the trainer or jockey but the horse looks good enough to get involved here if things go its way, the ground should be alright and if they go a good gallop I can see her pegging them back late on if she proves to be as good as that maiden win. Competitive race but currently 16/1 on the exchange and looks overpriced, worth a small each way bet if still around that price tomorrow. Could spring a surprise for a small yard.

4:50 Galway - Fosters Cross - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

Looked like he was going to place in this race last year but fell, tougher race this time around but he's a decent sort that has been racing in tougher races than this and has won at this course before. Great jockey in Paul Townend on board and he's a great pilot who has been on board this fellow twice coming third in hot races both times. The ground shouldn't be a bother and if he jumps a clear round I can see him being there or thereabouts come the finish. He has had 3 months off and should be fit and raring to go for this. Certainly looks overpriced to me and carring only 10st 12lbs should also help his cause. Tough race to call so only a small each way bet for me at 25/1 with Ladbrokes who only go first 4 places, first 5 being payed on Bet365 but he's only 16/1 there so I'll take the chance with the bigger odds for less places paid. If he jumps well he should stand a decent chance here.

No reasoning for these as I'm wrecked and haven't even looked at Goodwood yet!

5:30 Galway - Makhaaleb - .5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Betfred)

6:05 Galway - Coronea Lilly - .25pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

Best of luck men, prices up come morning!

deewhy

Great work X-PYRO, glad to see the hard work is paying off for you. Need to do some studying now myself.

E/W Trixie and a Treble with Forsters Cross, Aughwilliam Lady, and Cruising Katie. Only small amount. If it comes nowhere, that's me done for the week :P

GampDub

Yeah have to say fair play for the effort x PyRo, you deserve a few more winners today

Personally as the racing gets progressively worse my effort level seriously decrease so today without too much thought (generally just going with trainers) here is my lucky 15 selection:

3.00 Designated Decoy
3.35 July Days
4.50 Slieveardagh
6.05 Johnys Lantern

Plus a small Patent on PW selections today:

Goodwood
2.45 Astrophysical Jet 1pt win 8/1 lads

3.25 Illustrious Blue 1pt win 12/1 tote

Galway
4.50 Dirar 1pt win 8/1

Best of Luck

heebusjeebus

I'm doing well with Weld this week so will continue with a small lucky today.

1.50 Prince Erik
3.00 Designated Decoy
3.35 Hallie's Comet
5.30 Force of Habit

Mr. sneakyboo

Lads did anyone hear Mikey O Connors interview on ATR last week b4 he rode quenzo Pierji in Wexford.... he seemed quite excited by his ride for Tommy Cooper in the last today... Total Pleasure.
Il be having an interest on him and Coscorrig n d 2nd n still to choose between New Phase and Overturn. Not too often Andrew Mc rides off 10'5 but cant rule out Mc Cains Overturn his 1 shrewdest trainers.
Gud luk to any1 havn a bet.

deewhy

13.50: Bronte Bay .5pts e/way

Have backed Bronte Bay for quite a while now and he is a frustrating animal having run in good quality races (8th Irish National), I am hoping drop back to beginners chase will allow the cards to finally fall his way.

14.25: Coscorrig 1 pt e/way

Expect Coscorrig to ping off in front and may take some catching. Beaten 10 lengths last time by Cruisin Katie but it dropping back to 2 miles. Track suits front runners and could cause surprise. Has run well in good quality races - 3rd to Citizen Vic off similiar tactics.

15.00: Lancetto (betting w/o Designated Decoy) 1 pt e/w

Weld should win this off but will go to w/o market and hope that Lancetto is at the track to take his place as a reserve. Has run well this year without winning - all depends on draw. If he doesnt run, I will take a chance on Home Secretary even though draw is bad. Ran very well at Leoparstown last week

15.35 Tellelle 2 pts each way

This gave an eye catching run in the Curragh last time out. Its first run of the season he finished 4th. Won in Galway last year and drawn well, the only worry being the ground. Oxx's horse is the danger but his horses are not firing. Miss Eze won well earlier this week but the draw and penalty counts against.

16.10 Coopers Crest 1 pt win

Has run a lot recently but is in cracking form. His 3rd to Bahrain Storm and Cuan Na Grai was a good run and followed up with a win on ground he did not like. Tough race but will take a chance.

16.50 Bahrain Storm 3 pts e/w

I am following my money from last year but also feel this fellow is now in his prime. Great Value at the price, comes into the race in great form - I think he just could retain his crown. I will have an e/w saver on Slieveardagh. A horse I have an interest in ran against this fellow in Killarney and he impressed me with the way it won - could be well handicapped.

17.30 Bay Swallow 2 pts e/w (without Force of Habit)

Cant see Weld's being beaten but at 7's, in the w/o market I think this is a good value bet. Although drawn low, the extra distance will help improve his chances of getting into the race. I am having a saver on a horse at a huge price that has run very well this year in both codes in Dusty Trail - well drawn and Eoin Doyle had a good winner this week, he could just cause a surprise.

18.05 Johny's Legacy 3 pts win

When all of the above lose, I will claw it all back on the Mullins factor. He mentioned this fellow in an interview with ATR earlier this week.

I also did a small lucky 31 on Weld's 5 horses just in case he continues the trend of the week.

Best of luck

deewhy

Does anyone know how it works regarding the draw for reserves? In the 15.00, 3 non-runners. If the 3 reserves take their chance how do they allocate draw? Or if only one takes its chance, how do they decide?

Interested to know.

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went for 14.50 e/w bet on AP's Adajal in the next race 2.25 , worst case money back ( i hope haha)

* not this is not a tip just my selection with form jockey , going taken into consideration.

GampDub

GampDub wrote: »

lucky 15 selection:

3.00 Designated Decoy
3.35 July Days
4.50 Slieveardagh
6.05 Johnys Lantern

Plus a small Patent on PW selections today:

Goodwood
2.45 Astrophysical Jet 1pt win 8/1 lads

3.25 Illustrious Blue 1pt win 12/1 tote

Changed my bet, did a 50c Lucky 63 on the six selctions above! Purely a speculative bet, but you won't see me for a month if it comes up

OneForTheTeam

Cruising Katie fell.

Sarge wrote: »

went for 14.50 e/w bet on AP's Adajal in the next race 2.25 , worst case money back ( i hope haha)

* not this is not a tip just my selection with form jockey , going taken into consideration.

Was unlucky to come 3rd, got caught up between the 1st and 2nd horse and had to pull back.

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Sarge wrote: »

went for 14.50 e/w bet on AP's Adajal in the next race 2.25 , worst case money back ( i hope haha)

* not this is not a tip just my selection with form jockey , going taken into consideration.

Comes in at 6/1 very unlucky to get cut off.

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Diaster strikes ! I forgot to tick e/w :-(

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one of the bets of the day , on seperate ways only at 2.25 e/w at 11/1 :-( great shout.

c montgomery

x PyRo wrote: »

3:00 Galway - Separate Ways - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

I'm probably mad going against Weld again but this one came second in this race last year off the same mark, hit 1.05 in running and should of won. Good jockey, ground should be ideal and has won twice over this distance. Could be handicapped back into things and should come on for that recent run at Leopardstown. Highly drawn in stall 14 (of 18) which is perfect, versatile tactically, can be held up or tracking the leaders and most of his best form has come from when sitting around 4th or 5th. Ended up racing in rear on the last couple of occasions and I wouldn't be surprised if this has been the aim since coming second last year. First time blinkers also is very interesting, could well spark more improvement and here's hoping he takes to them first time. Should be the guts of 12/1 and looks a good each way bet if building on previous form here last year.


!

Cheers pyro, just need the stewarts to do us a turn now:)

OneForTheTeam

c montgomery wrote: »

Cheers pyro, just need the stewarts to do us a turn now:)

Ya thanks pyro;)


Whats the story with it tho, says i won on pp but no payment yet?

UrbanSea

Seriously hope he keeps the race,was gonna back Lutrell Lady at 7/1 and didn't bother

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c montgomery wrote: »

Cheers pyro, just need the stewarts to do us a turn now:)

dont worry bookies will pay out.

bamboozling

Sarge wrote: »

dont worry bookies will pay out.

What about betfair?

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bamboozling wrote: »

What about betfair?

I've closed my betfair account , after i lost a lot of money with the bookies in louth paying out on louth at the leinster final. So after that closed the account :-(

UrbanSea

bamboozling wrote: »

What about betfair?

I don't think betfair pays out on the disqualified winner,as you're betting against someone else. I could be wrong but I don't think so.

OneForTheTeam

ffs they after making separate ways 2nd place

Axwell

Decision is in and 1st and 2nd switched.

c montgomery

**** sake, seperate ways demoted to 2nd

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sorry to hear lads , glad i closed my betfair now .

plonk

my bet365 account is still giving me the win does any1 know what the story is. Will i get to keep it or will they take it back

UrbanSea

plonk wrote: »

my bet365 account is still giving me the win does any1 know what the story is. Will i get to keep it or will they take it back

Ya you'll get to keep it,bookies pay out on both the disqualified winner and the promoted winner,the exchanges don't.

I like Camira each way here.

CantGetNoSleep

Are paddy power going to pay out on separate ways win?

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CantGetNoSleep wrote: »

Are paddy power going to pay out on separate ways win?

yes

UrbanSea

CantGetNoSleep wrote: »

Are paddy power going to pay out on separate ways win?

Yes,see my last post.

c montgomery

excellent stuff, pp paid out on separate ways:):)

x PyRo

Thank God for first past the post.

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Who got 5th ? I had glouchester @ 28/1 5e.w

deewhy

Great Winner of Hurdle - had 2,3,4,5 for my combination exacta and trifecta's - sums up Galway for me.:mad::mad::mad: Great run from Bahrain Storm - lost nothing in defeat

OneForTheTeam

Sarge wrote: »

Who got 5th ? I had glouchester @ 28/1 5e.w

I had him e/w on pp but it says i lost so must be passed 5th.

CantGetNoSleep

They only paid me for a place

deewhy

No one tells me 5th

coughlan08

very happy with that,had bahrain storm 11-1 and Slieveardagh 16-1
both placed 2nd and 4th respectively.
great run by bahrain storm though.

has to be Force Of Habit 6/5 in the next for me..

x PyRo

coughlan08 wrote: »

has to be Force Of Habit 6/5 in the next for me..

Two races in 4 days might take it out of him, plus carries a penalty, daft price too. Should go well but at those prices he's opposable for sure.

Makhaaleb has a solid chance at a nice price.

Kod-box

He's 7/4 on Betfair anyway, agreed on Makhaaleb though, will have a nibbler @ 10/1

Mr. sneakyboo

x PyRo wrote: »

Two races in 4 days might take it out of him, plus carries a penalty, daft price too. Should go well but at those prices he's opposable for sure.

Makhaaleb has a solid chance at a nice price.

As far as I know he doesnt carry penalty because it was a novice hurdle he won on monday and this is a flat mile n 4 handicap.

x PyRo

Mr. sneakyboo wrote: »

As far as I know he doesnt carry penalty because it was a novice hurdle he won on monday and this is a flat mile n 4 handicap.

Forgot that sorry, it's a 7lb penalty for his last flat win at Fairyhouse.

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x PyRo wrote: »

Two races in 4 days might take it out of him, plus carries a penalty, daft price too. Should go well but at those prices he's opposable for sure.

Makhaaleb has a solid chance at a nice price.

Ive back Makhaaleb nice 10 e/w

but my big bet is force of habit at 6/4 50 win :-)

x PyRo

Sarge wrote: »

Ive back Makhaaleb nice 10 e/w

but my big bet is force of habit at 6/4 50 win :-)

Best of luck mate*.

*Luck only applies to Makhaaleb.

:pac:

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x PyRo wrote: »

Best of luck mate*.

*Luck only applies to Makhaaleb.

:pac:

haha , I'm actually looking forward to this race more so then the last one. I studied this one in more detail.

Brendygg

Thank god for backing luthrell lady on betfair @8-1 after the race!

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terrible rides but both jockeys.

x PyRo

Jockey ballsed up Makhaaleb's chances. Silly silly man!

Force Of Habit hadn't a hope, the bookies cleaned up there.

deewhy

deewhy wrote: »

13.50: Bronte Bay .5pts e/way



17.30 Bay Swallow 2 pts e/w (without Force of Habit)

Cant see Weld's being beaten but at 7's, in the w/o market I think this is a good value bet. Although drawn low, the extra distance will help improve his chances of getting into the race. I am having a saver on a horse at a huge price that has run very well this year in both codes in Dusty Trail - well drawn and Eoin Doyle had a good winner this week, he could just cause a surprise.


Get in there - all loses for the week recouped ended up going 3 pts e/w

CantGetNoSleep

****, any tip for the last to save the day? especially as pp havent paid me for that win earlier, only got a place!

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x PyRo wrote: »

Jockey ballsed up Makhaaleb's chances. Silly silly man!

Force Of Habit hadn't a hope, the bookies cleaned up there.

Yeah bad decision to race him three days after the first race !

Jockey really really has to take criticism on Makhaaleb. !