August 2010 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

What does August hold in store for Ireland? Enter by the end of Sunday, 1st of August before penalties set in ... and the questions are:

(1) "IMT" mean temp deg C for the five stations (1961-90 avg is 14.7)

(2) max temp deg C for any met.ie station

(3) min temp deg C for any met.ie station

(4) average rainfall (% of normal) for all reporting stations

(5) average sunshine (% of normal) for all reporting stations

(6) Bonus -- Using Gurteen for our validation, predict the max temp and daily rainfall in mms for Sunday the 8th (event -- Tullamore Agricultural Show)

Good luck, here's your template:

(mean,max,min,rain%,sun%,8maxrain)

WolfeIRE

Thank you MT for doing this

Here are my answers in order of questions:

15.5c,27.5c,5c,110%,100%,)
6)22c 0mm rain

pauldry

Thank you MT too. Merry Christmas.:rolleyes:

15.3c, 24.1c, 5.6c, 103%, 104%, 19.4c/10.1mm

pauldry

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Thank you MT for doing this

Here are my answers in order of questions:

15.5c,16.5c,14.2c,110%,100%,)
6)22c 0mm rain

Wolfe are u sure ur predictions are right? all fairs in love n weather war :pac:

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Wolfe are u sure ur predictions are right? all fairs in love n weather war :pac:

Poteen brewing season in Clare, no doubt!

M.T. Cranium

I sent Wolfe a message, looks like he took the max and min to refer to monthly averages and you'll probably see those changing by edit if not by new post. Or maybe there will be a lot of cloud. :cool:

WolfeIRE

while i cannot categorically rule out the use of poteen Joe , I did get a little confused with the 2nd and 3rd.

Thanks for the PM MT and clarification.

I have edited my entry with the 'winning' answers

SeaFields

(16.3,28,7.5,125%,80%,3mm)

nacho libre

15.6c, 26.3c, 4.9c, 135%, 85%, 22.2c/ 0 mm

200motels

16.1C 28.8C 5.2C 142% 92% 19C 15mm

homolumo

(17.3,25.7, 6.5,99%,95%, 20.1/1.1 mm)

jd

(17.3, 27.7, 6.1, 109%, 98%, 24.1, 0 mm)

Rebelbrowser

(15.9,25.8,6.5,97%,105%,19.6 and 0mm)

M.T. Cranium

Okay, I have no strong feelings about August either way, so ...

15.0,26.2,7.7,100,100,20.5,1.5

John mac

15.4,26.7,5.7,90,120,22.1,.5

hope i'm right about the sun

thetonynator

(15.3, 24.9, 5.6, 90%, 110%, 8thmax: 22.5 rain: 0.2mm)

up for anything

15.8, 25.7, 5.7C, 112%, 109%, 21.6, 8.00mm

M.T. Cranium

bump

15.7, 26.1, 5.9, 103%, 105%, 21.9, 0

Deep Easterly

(14.9,26.8,6.9,98,108, 20.1,3.4)

waterways

15.5, 26.2, 8.9, 89, 113, 17.3/5.9

Lumi

15.0,24.2,4.5,95,108,19.5,3

Speak Now

(15.2, 24.8, 6.6, 88%, 115%, 20.1, 0 mm)

dasa29

16.2, 26.5, 6.0, 96%, 115%, 21.5, 5 mm

Redsunset

(mean 15.5 ,max 27 ,min 7 ,rain100% ,sun110%,max 20c rain 1mm)

nilhg

(mean 15.7C, max 25.8C, min 5.8C , rain 85%, sun 101%, 8th 1.5mm)

Strasser

14.8,23.5,4.5,108,94, on 8th max 19.5 with 5.0mm rainfall

Danno

Cheers MTC...

(1) "IMT" mean temp deg C for the five stations 15.3c

(2) max temp deg C for any met.ie station 24.7c

(3) min temp deg C for any met.ie station 4.9c

(4) average rainfall (% of normal) for all reporting stations 100%

(5) average sunshine (% of normal) for all reporting stations 120%

(6) Bonus -- Using Gurteen for our validation, predict the max temp and daily rainfall in mms for Sunday the 8th 19.4c and 0.0mm

TheInquisitor

(14,29,5,93%,78%,24 and 0mm)

Joe Public

15.5,29.9,6.9,92,133,22.9,0.0

DOCARCH

15.6c, 25.8c, 3.8c, 96%, 105%, 21.3c, 0.8mm.

mickger844posts

15.6, 25.8, 5.4,121%, 95%, 19.4c, 3.2mm

Su Campu

14.6,22.4,7.8,110,110,18.9,0.3

kindredspirit

15.3, 25.0, 5.0, 115%, 85%, 20.5, 0.0,

M.T. Cranium

Just a note, this thread will be converted into a table of forecasts at midnight and entries will be closed at that point (nobody has entered today so far, it is subject to a penalty where you would lose 10% above 60, not really very punitive actually).

However, from now to end of year, to maintain the integrity of the contest, entries beyond the 2nd will be automatically rejected.

pauldry

just in case the solar storm breaks the internet bye everyone!

M.T. Cranium

August forecasts
_________________


Forecaster .... IMT .... Max .... Min .... Rain% .... Sun% .... Gurteen 8th
_______________________________________________________________

homolumo ..... 17.3 .... 25.7 .... 6.5 .... 099 .... 095 .... 20.1 .... 01.1
jd ................ 17.3 .... 27.7 .... 6.1 .... 109 .... 098 .... 24.1 .... 00.0
SeaFields ...... 16.3 .... 28.0 .... 7.5 .... 125 .... 080 .... .... ...... 03.0
dasa29 ......... 16.2 .... 26.5 .... 6.0 .... 096 .... 115 .... 21.5 .... 05.0
200motels ..... 16.1 .... 28.8 .... 5.2 .... 142 .... 092 .... 19.0 .... 15.0
Rebelbrowser.. 15.9 .... 25.8 .... 6.5 .... 097 .... 105 .... 19.6 .... 00.0
upforanything. 15.8 .... 25.7 .... 5.7 .... 112 .... 109 .... 21.6 .... 08.0
hellboy99 ...... 15.7 .... 26.1 .... 5.9 .... 103 .... 105 .... 21.9 .... 00.0
nilhg ............ 15.7 .... 25.8 .... 5.8 .... 085 .... 101 .... ..... ..... 01.5
nacho libre .... 15.6 .... 26.3 .... 4.9 .... 135 .... 085 .... 22.2 .... 00.0
mickger844ps. 15.6 .... 25.8 .... 5.4 .... 121 .... 095 .... 19.4 .... 03.2
DOCARCH ..... 15.6 .... 25.8 .... 3.8 .... 096 .... 105 .... 21.3 .... 00.8
Joe Public ..... 15.5 .... 29.9 .... 6.9 .... 092 .... 133 .... 22.9 .... 00.0
WolfeIRE ...... 15.5 .... 27.5 .... 5.0 .... 110 .... 100 .... 22.0 .... 00.0

Con Sensus ... 15.5 .... 25.9 .... 5.9 .... 100 .... 103 .... 20.3 .... 01.0

waterways .... 15.5 .... 26.2 .... 8.9 .... 089 .... 113 .... 17.3 .... 05.9
redsunset ..... 15.5 .... 27.0 .... 7.0 .... 100 .... 110 .... 20.0 .... 01.0
John mac ...... 15.4 .... 26.7 .... 5.7 .... 090 .... 120 .... 22.1 .... 00.5
Thetonynator. 15.3 .... 24.9 .... 5.6 .... 090 .... 110 .... 22.5 .... 00.2
pauldry ......... 15.3 .... 24.1 .... 5.6 .... 103 .... 104 .... 19.4 .... 10.1
KindredSpirit .. 15.3 .... 25.0 .... 5.0 .... 115 .... 085 .... 20.5 .... 00.0
Danno .......... 15.3 .... 24.7 .... 4.9 .... 100 .... 120 .... 19.4 .... 00.0
Jerry Seinfeld . 15.2 .... 24.8 .... 6.6 .... 088 .... 115 .... 20.1 .... 00.0
MT Cranium ... 15.0 .... 26.2 .... 7.7 .... 100 .... 100 .... 20.5 .... 01.5
Fionagus ....... 15.0 .... 24.2 .... 4.5 .... 095 .... 108 .... 19.5 .... 03.0
Deep Easterly. 14.9 .... 26.8 .... 6.9 .... 098 .... 108 .... 20.1 .... 03.4
Strasser ....... 14.8 .... 23.5 .... 4.5 .... 108 .... 094 .... 19.5 .... 05.0
Su Campu ..... 14.6 .... 22.4 .... 7.8 .... 110 .... 110 .... 18.9 .... 00.3
TheInquisitor.. 14.0 .... 29.0 .... 5.0 .... 093 .... 078 .... 24.0 .... 00.0
____________________________________________________

Sorry, I failed to notice during entries that two forecasters missed the temperature for the 7th, giving only the rainfall.

Meanwhile, the consensus seems optimistic given the kind of pattern we had in most of July and have right now ... the average temperature prediction calls for 15.5 C, a bit above average, and an extreme of 26. The rainfall estimate is right on normal and so is sunshine (a small amount above, actually). We shall see if the old "scoring adjustment" tool needs to be sharpened for another round, hope not.

Good luck and welcome to our new entrants, homolumo and up for anything, as well as welcome back to some other newbies from July.

Without checking extensively, looks to me as though all regulars have entered so any further forecasts will be "for demonstration purposes only."

nilhg

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

August forecasts
_________________


snip


Sorry, I failed to notice during entries that two forecasters missed the temperature for the 7th, giving only the rainfall.

snip

Don't know how I missed that, in fairness it's too late to change my entry, I'll just have to hope I hit the bullseye with the rest...

M.T. Cranium

I'm afraid so, with it being the 3rd now ... by the way, Claremorris has recorded 6.8 C (2nd) for the monthly min so far.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm afraid so, with it being the 3rd now ... by the way, Claremorris has recorded 6.8 C (2nd) for the monthly min so far.

Claremorris is down as 12.3C min for the 2nd

M.T. Cranium

My apologies there, I checked back to the source (yesterday's weather on the met.ie site) and sure enough, there is no 6.8 there for Claremorris, actually the lowest was 7.6 C at Casement.

I have no idea whether this was changed or if my eyes were playing tricks on me, I suspect changed because I took more than a casual look once I saw some single-digit lows. However, there is almost bound to be a lower temperature eventually given the way August usually unfolds.

Joe Public

Any chance some met.ie people are participating in the contest?

Might explain the changing figures:D

pauldry

:cool:IMT only 14.6c after 4 days of August.

Most of us predicted over 15. We need a bit of heat.

Rainfall will prob be above normal by this time next week but "tentative" signs of a High Pressure trying to get in around 11th.:cool:

pauldry

IMT has gone up a couple of decimal places to 14.78c

Warm weather round 11th (see MTs forecast) is possible that might bring it over 15c good for the majority of us:)

Deep Easterly

I.M.T for August up to the 7th on 15.0c, which is close to normal for the time of year. However, mean max is running below normal once again while mean min is running considerably above.


Chart showing daily I.M.T max temp for the year so far:



Very static over the last couple of months.


Outlook chart for the coming mid-week period:



Ireland forecast to lie between low to the east of UK and an appoaching flabby ridge from the west bringing a mix of cloud and sunshine with the odd shower possible on most days. Breezy at times too during daylight hours with temps hovering around average. Drying conditions should improve as the week progresses.



Data C/O met eireann

M.T. Cranium

Through the first seven days, rainfall running only about 60% (Friday did not produce that much) and sunshine only at 66% of normal.

Will post the results for Gurteen tomorrow, but must say, if it rains between now and end of day, this would be a shame for those who predicted a dry day since presumably the agricultural fair (if I remember right) has closed its doors by now.

Joe Public

If rain in Gurteen for Sunday turns out to be "trace" does that count as 0 mms?

M.T. Cranium

Yes, but let's say if it's 0.1 mms, I would probably be giving 4/5 to the zero rainfall crowd, five to anyone with a small forecast of rain, and diminishing numbers above that. If it's zero, same general idea. I know in some contests they go very strictly all points or no points for rainfall, but that seems unrealistic in a weather pattern like this, I prefer a graduated scale that seems fair to the contestants. Looks like it will be either trace or 0.1 mm in the final analysis. I'll post the high for the day when I see it later on.

M.T. Cranium

Just realized, the climatological day runs 00z to 00z and that means 0100 to 0100 local time, which is why Gurteen measured 1.2 mms of rain -- it was all between 23z and 00z. And the high for the day was 19.2 C.

Since it didn't rain more than a trace all day before midnight I will be lenient on the low side of this amount but fair is fair, anyone predicting 0.5 to 2.0 mms will get the full points, I plan to give zero and slight amounts four out of five, and I will reduce the points gradually above the 0.5-2.0 range. Seem fair to you?

For the max I will give five points for the range 18.7 to 19.7 and take off a point for every 1.0 outside that excellent range. Well done to all who guessed near 19 C.

I think Danno had the closest real forecast in terms of how the day would turn out, although he's one of several who were annoyed by the late arriving rain, with the people and their animals long gone. As a group, our consensus forecast from 8-10 days invites much admiration (the BIEWX model perhaps?) Or is it the victory of randomness?

It makes me wonder how much my daily forecast thread would be improved by similar input from the two dozen of you each day (prob'ly lots).

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just realized, the climatological day runs 00z to 00z and that means 0100 to 0100 local time, which is why Gurteen measured 1.2 mms of rain -- it was all between 23z and 00z. And the high for the day was 19.2 C.

Since it didn't rain more than a trace all day before midnight I will be lenient on the low side of this amount but fair is fair, anyone predicting 0.5 to 2.0 mms will get the full points, I plan to give zero and slight amounts four out of five, and I will reduce the points gradually above the 0.5-2.0 range. Seem fair to you?

For the max I will give five points for the range 18.7 to 19.7 and take off a point for every 1.0 outside that excellent range. Well done to all who guessed near 19 C.

I think Danno had the closest real forecast in terms of how the day would turn out, although he's one of several who were annoyed by the late arriving rain, with the people and their animals long gone. As a group, our consensus forecast from 8-10 days invites much admiration (the BIEWX model perhaps?) Or is it the victory of randomness?

It makes me wonder how much my daily forecast thread would be improved by similar input from the two dozen of you each day (prob'ly lots).

M.T. Cranium Met.ie say 19.8

Speak Now

Claremorris 6.1 new lowest i think.