Premier League Top-Goalscorer

Mezcita

Right. Might be a bit early for this but the prices tend to come in a fair bit closer to the start. Using my patented "This could all be rubbish" system, I've taken the main contenders and slimmed it down based on Kyrpton Factor style criteria.

The Contenders:

7.00 Wayne Rooney
7.00 Didier Drogba
9.00 Fernando Torres
13.00 Robin Van Persie
15.00 Carlos Tevez
21.00 Darren Bent
21.00 Jermain Defoe
26.00 Nicolas Anelka
34.00 Marouane Chamakah
34.00 Robinho
34.00 Frank Lampard
36.00 Emmanuel Adebayor
41.00 Dimitar Berbatov
41.00 Steven Gerrard
51.00 Andrey Arshavin
51.00 Cesc Fabregas
51.00 Louis Saha
67.00 Ryan Giggs
67.00CarlosVela
67.00 Peter Crouch
67.00 Nicklas Bendtner
81.00 Carlton Cole
81.00 Gabby Agbonlahor
81.00 John Carew
81.00 Milan Jovanovic
81.00 Dirk Kuyt
81.00 Javier Hernandez
81.00 Craig Bellamy
81.00 Robbie Keane

1st Cull - Not enough games.
Guys who are used as subs and are not guaranteed enough game time or who do not start often enough.

Out: Bellamy, Hernandez, Jovanovic, Carew, Bendtner, Crouch, Vela, Berbatov, Robinho (Likely to leave), Chamkah, Giggs,

2nd Cull: The Glass Men
(Players who consistently get injured and therefore won't play enough games. They may be great but they need to play more to have any chance.

Out - Cole, Saha, Van Persie, Torres.

3rd Cull - Don't score enough.
Not enough goals based on their goals per games ratio.

Out: Kuyt, Arshavin.

Players left:
Keane, Agbon, Fabregas, Gerrard, Adebayor, Lampard, Anelka, Defoe, Bent, Tevez, Drogba, Rooney.

Of these it could be argued that a number of them have a realistic chance. There's no denying that Rooney and Drogba will be leading the pack here. Very much key players for their teams and pretty much guaranteed goals. Fabregas may well be playing his last season for Arsenal but was amazing last year. Once again, concerns over injuries though. Gerrard was a huge dissapointment last year and must improve. Lampard was outstanding but I'm wary in backing a midfielder compared to an out and out striker. Defore turned rubbish towards the end of last season and I think Agbon is another frustrating player to watch.

Overall it's the price that interests me as the value is in backing these guys each way.

Therefore my top three:

3. Robbie Keane 81.0 (General):
Total long shot. Basing this on the fact that he may well move in the coming weeks. If he goes to a decent club and plays regularly he will get chances. As a Leeds fan, I was always amazed about how many chances he frequently missed. However, he's proven in this league and is a good price. Takes pennos too. If he ends up at Villa this could be very tasty. If he stays at Spurs, another year kicking his heels on the bench awaits.

2. Darren Bent 21.0 (BetFred, Stan James, BWin):
Outstanding season last year in a team which were frequently rubbish. Takes pennos and is very much their main striker. Interesting that he is still only 26 as it seems he has been scoring goals for years. Think that Sunderland will struggle again but he will always get a few. Also takes pennos but misses them a lot too. Regardless, he has consistently scored goals with teams who were not pushing for the title.

1. Carlos Tevez 15.0 (BetFred, Bwin. No each way possible with BWin)
23 league goals in 33 games for City last year. Didn't really start enough at Man United but there is no denying his commitment or ability. If anything, City not making the Champions League is a bonus here as he won't have to play as many games. Man City may have nine million midfielders but their front line is fairly settled. Takes pennos and free kicks.

Opinions/Thoughts/Torrents of abuse please.

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Keane doesn't start for Spurs nowadays does he?
Weren't they trying to get rid of him last month?

x PyRo

If Adebayor stays fit the whole season and plays every game he can he'll score 25+ goals. He'll outscore Tevez.

Goalkeeper.

Personally, I think Drogba at 6/1 is good value, but I don't do outright bets.

baz2009 wrote: »

Keane doesn't start for Spurs nowadays does he?
Weren't they trying to get rid of him last month?

Apparently, he'll be moving to Aston Villa where he will get plenty of game time.

EI111

Great post.

I have a feeling Rooney will go off the boil this year- he really started to buzz after the birth of his child- an obscure observation perhaps but that morale booster will not be around this year. He will also more than likely be disheartened by England's poor performance in south africa. Obviously he is a great player but my gut is that he could have a quieter season. I will be interested to see the Over/Under on his total goals.

I think I will be backing Tevez but I am tempted by the each way price on Lampard and if betfair have a top 4 market I will have a nibble. Might also have a complete gamble on Tim Cahill each way, 100/1 is probably not value, almost definitely too short a price, but the odd uncalculated gamble can be tolerated.

EI111

x PyRo wrote: »

If Adebayor stays fit the whole season and plays every game he can he'll score 25+ goals. He'll outscore Tevez.

Could never ever put a penny of money on such a donkey, I hope he rots on the bench all season.

Mezcita

Yeah true about Adebayor. 14 in 26 for the big lad last year. Very decent strike rate for Arsenal in his final two seasons. 36.0 on BWin or 34.0 on Coral who do each way.

However, he bugs the ****.e out of me. He dissapears to often for my liking. Tevez could be losing 4-0 in a match and playing with one leg but he would still be buzzing about like a mad man in search of a goal.

Xavi6

EI111 wrote: »

Could never ever put a penny of money on such a donkey, I hope he rots on the bench all season.

Donkey me arse.

You should never let bitterness cloud your judgement.

Might throw a few quid on both Ade and Carlos each way.

Mezcita

EI111 wrote: »

Great post.

I have a feeling Rooney will go off the boil this year- he really started to buzz after the birth of his child- an obscure observation perhaps but that morale booster will not be around this year. He will also more than likely be disheartened by England's poor performance in south africa. Obviously he is a great player but my gut is that he could have a quieter season. I will be interested to see the Over/Under on his total goals.

I think I will be backing Tevez but I am tempted by the each way price on Lampard and if betfair have a top 4 market I will have a nibble. Might also have a complete gamble on Tim Cahill each way, 100/1 is probably not value, almost definitely too short a price, but the odd uncalculated gamble can be tolerated.

Legend but he's never scored more than 11 goals in one Premier League season. Think Everton will do well this year though.

EI111

Mezcita wrote: »

Legend but he's never scored more than 11 goals in one Premier League season. Think Everton will do well this year though.

Arteta takes the frees and penalties too which makes it even less sensible, unless he goes to Sevilla and Leighton Baines breaks a leg then maybe just maybe he might be put on duty...

x PyRo

EI111 wrote: »

Could never ever put a penny of money on such a donkey, I hope he rots on the bench all season.

What?

Arsenal fan I take it?

Very harsh regardless.

UrbanSea

Might do a small bet on Bent and Adebayor,then be raging on the last day when Drogba finishes top scorer.

EI111

x PyRo wrote: »

What?

Arsenal fan I take it?

Very harsh regardless.

United fan. Just can't stand his attitude and I really think Fabregas was the key to his success at Arsenal. His touch and finishing are attrocious at times and he's no good in the air. I just can't wait for him to be found out, if he ever is that is. Maybe he is a good player and I'm completely wrong, but I just think he has been so lucky.

digme

EI111 wrote: »

United fan. Just can't stand his attitude and I really think Fabregas was the key to his success at Arsenal. His touch and finishing are attrocious at times and he's no good in the air. I just can't wait for him to be found out, if he ever is that is. Maybe he is a good player and I'm completely wrong, but I just think he has been so lucky.

Couldn't agree more.

CrabieCrawford

Great post. Defo agree with Keane as a long shot, assuming that he goes to villa and is a starter. Plenty of crosses coming in from both flanks which would suit him, and hopefully he would take over the the penalty taking.

Price on bet365 100/1 at the min, think its worth a few squid each way (1/4 for 1,2,3,4). would be worried to wait until he completes a transfer anywhere as the odds would probably bomb

EI111

digme wrote: »

Couldn't agree more.

Brilliant. By any chance do you think Luis Suarez is crap too? Some time when I have a lot of time on my hands I would like to make a youtube compilation of the horrendous play by both players that is overlooked because they score goals for a season or two.

EDIT: Suarez is 18/1 to be top scorer next season. Wouldn't be surprised to see him score less than 5 if he did arrive in England.

Xavi6

EI111 wrote: »

Brilliant. By any chance do you think Luis Suarez is crap too? Some time when I have a lot of time on my hands I would like to make a youtube compilation of the horrendous play by both players that is overlooked because they score goals for a season or two.

Isn't the role of a striker to score goals? You don't pay millions for a forward who looks good with step overs and shimmies but can't finish his dinner (though some have in the past).

Adebayor scores goals. He is a striker. What more do you want?

Same goes for Suarez.

Royale with Cheese

Every year I'm amazed at Robin van Persie being among the favourites for this. The guy rarely ever gets into double figures.

EI111

Xavi6 wrote: »

Isn't the role of a striker to score goals? You don't pay millions for a forward who looks good with step overs and shimmies but can't finish his dinner (though some have in the past).

Adebayor scores goals. He is a striker. What more do you want?

Same goes for Suarez.

To be honest I do like to take out and out goalscorers down a notch alright. The thing is I don't think Adebayor will keep it up and I guarantee you Suarez would not score goals in the premiership. Anybody who watched all the Uruguay games and says they would like to have Suarez at their club needs their heads checked. The amount of times he lost the ball way too easily and the amount of times he went for glory like an U-12 striker when a pass was the far better option frustrated me so much.

If Adebayor does keep it up then I will give you a personal apology.

digme

Xavi6 wrote: »

Isn't the role of a striker to score goals? You don't pay millions for a forward who looks good with step overs and shimmies but can't finish his dinner (though some have in the past).

Adebayor scores goals. He is a striker. What more do you want?

Same goes for Suarez.

Peter crouch is a striker too, both are lanky and both are very average.

EI111

digme wrote: »

Peter crouch is a striker too, both are lanky and both are very average.

And neither is a patch on Carlton Cole or Bobby Zamora

digme

EI111 wrote: »

Brilliant. By any chance do you think Luis Suarez is crap too? Some time when I have a lot of time on my hands I would like to make a youtube compilation of the horrendous play by both players that is overlooked because they score goals for a season or two.

EDIT: Suarez is 18/1 to be top scorer next season. Wouldn't be surprised to see him score less than 5 if he did arrive in England.

From what I've seen in the wc so far he's nothing special either,maybe the pl with suit him more with,we'll have to wait and see I suppose

digme

EI111 wrote: »

And neither is a patch on Carlton Cole or Bobby Zamora

Or darren bent for that matter,the list goes on haha

digme

I've gone with Andy Carroll ew to be top scorer. -- 81/1 silly bet i know as the midfield aren't top notch like uniteds or chelsea but worth a 2 quid bet haha

iMuse

digme wrote: »

I've gone with Andy Carroll ew to be top scorer. -- 81/1 silly bet i know as the midfield aren't top notch like uniteds or chelsea but worth a 2 quid bet haha

Could do an Andy Johnston, he scored 21 goals in 04/05 finishing 2nd to Henry

Juwwi

the last 10 seasons the top scorer has been from chelsea ,man united or arsenal so unless man city improve enough to win the leauge or challenge strongly chances are the winner will come from the above 3 teams.

chelsea scored 103 goals last year ,city only scored 73.

ln my opinion 6/1 drogba looks a steel.


heres the link from sky its a great link for finding previous years results.
http://www.premierleague.com/page/Statistics/0,,12306,00.html

Nuri Sahin

Going for Drogba @ 6/1. Foolish not to tbf.

As an outsider bet, Pavlyuchenko @ 66/1 could be worth something. Started a lot of games towards the back end of last season after finally being given a chance and scored a good few too.

SirDelboy18

Nikola Zigic and Nani.

eclectichoney

digme wrote: »

I've gone with Andy Carroll ew to be top scorer. -- 81/1 silly bet i know as the midfield aren't top notch like uniteds or chelsea but worth a 2 quid bet haha

You can get 100/1 at betpack if you feel like topping up digme!

ValueSeeker

For anyone interested in the La Liga top scorer, I've written a preview here

I can't see past the top 3 in the betting but there are some decent odds outsiders for E/W.

matt1958

Anyone think the new kid for United Hernandez for top scorer is worth the punt @51.00 with PP:p he is only 34.00:eek: on BET365. I think he'll play more games then Berba tw@t and from the finishing i've seen he'll score his far share. Wait just seen BET365 are doing each-way 1/4 1-2-3-4 i take it PP isn't the same..

matt1958

After finding PP top scorer page i find down the bottom its e/w 1/4 1-2-3-4 places. Can someone explain why there is a massive price difference for the same bet between PP and BET365 J.Hernandez Top Scorer? I know im missing something here

EI111

matt1958 wrote: »

After finding PP top scorer page i find down the bottom its e/w 1/4 1-2-3-4 places. Can someone explain why there is a massive price difference for the same bet between PP and BET365 J.Hernandez Top Scorer? I know im missing something here

If you look at it from the bookies point of view its not that massive a difference. basically B365 rate him as having a 2.94% chance of being top scorer, PP give him a 1.96% chance and that's if the market was a level 100% market (which it is very far from).
I.E. they both think he has F all chance.

It's massive for the punter but that only matters if he wins

Vurnon San Benito

Odds for Leon Best anyone? :pac:

x PyRo

I'll give you 15,000,000/1.

Vurnon San Benito

x PyRo wrote: »

I'll give you 15,000,000/1.

Add another three zeros and I'lll put a few pound on it :pac:

eclectichoney

matt1958 wrote: »

After finding PP top scorer page i find down the bottom its e/w 1/4 1-2-3-4 places. Can someone explain why there is a massive price difference for the same bet between PP and BET365 J.Hernandez Top Scorer? I know im missing something here

I notice PP have gone into 40/1 now for this - they must be watching

matt1958

x PyRo wrote: »

I'll give you 15,000,000/1.

I'll need proof of funds:p..

matt1958

eclectichoney wrote: »

I notice PP have gone into 40/1 now for this - they must be watching

Some are following my thinking:cool:.. Pity i missed the 50/1 odds though.

x PyRo

I'll give you and Doocey that after you give me proof of sanity.

eclectichoney

matt1958 wrote: »

Some are following my thinking:cool:.. Pity i missed the 50/1 odds though.

You can get 7/1 at betfair for a top 4 finish, so it would save you having to back each way.

matt1958

eclectichoney wrote: »

You can get 7/1 at betfair for a top 4 finish, so it would save you having to back each way.

Don't have a betfair account.. Thanks anyway

matt1958

x PyRo wrote: »

I'll give you and Doocey that after you give me proof of sanity.

Why do you not think he can finish in the top 4?

x PyRo

matt1958 wrote: »

Why do you not think he can finish in the top 4?

Because he's pure crap! Do you know who we're talking about?

matt1958

x PyRo wrote: »

Because he's pure crap! Do you know who we're talking about?

Hernandez???

matt1958

Nope you weren't :pac:..

x PyRo

:pac:

He won't be near it anyways. If he gets enough time on the pitch to score 10 I'll be shocked!

Kod-box

Nani @ 150/1 with laddies looks big to me, he's 50/66 everywhere else, worth an e/w.

fkiely

Carlton Cole looks decent value e/w at over 80's. He's come off the back of a difficult season where he played with an injury for the majority of it yet still managed to grab double figures. The season before he did the same. He seems to have put his injury issues behind him now and has been scoring for fun pre season, 4 in 5. The new formation Avram Grant has brought in really aids Cole in the target man/one up front job. With the addition of Barrera and the return of Dyer complementing what West Ham already have creativity-wise, it could be worth a punt.

Kod-box

PP paying double odds if your player wins it and scores 30 or more in the process.

http://www.paddypower.com/football/uk-football/premier-league?ev_oc_grp_ids=111192

Warper

Hard to look beyond Drogba considering he missed a good few games last season through injury and the ANC. Torres would be the main danger but he only plays half a season.