The Denman and Kauto Thread

LutherBlissett

Cantoris wrote: »

Could you say then that Denman was acting as a pacemaker for Kauto Star?

Denman acting as a pacemaker for Kauto Star? [Having] watched the 08 Gold Cup, [one should] know that the controversy surrounding pacemakers, if there was any at all, actually centred upon Neptune Collonges. A horse travelling well being sent to the lead after a circuit hardly constitutes a pacemaker!

As for Whyno - Nicholls was evidently disappointed, as can be ascertained from assertions like "that's the way things go" etc. Elsewhere he has openly admitted that he and Clifford Baker have a stronger attachment to Kauto Star. Moreover, do bear in mind that had Kauto won the GC that year, he would have picked up the million pound Betfair bonus. So there was not just an emotional rationale for preferring Kauto - Nicholls would have landed a tidy bonus into the bargain (not to mention the whole, you know, back to back GCs thing).

In the end, Nicholls is only human - it is inevitable that he would end up having a "favourite". Whether or not his bias materially impacts on the horse (conciously or subconsciously), I think there's nothing being wrong with being aware it might. I (as clearly and explicitly stated) don't think he's ever had an issue with training the horse - yes, Kempton and Punchestown were bad calls, but the horse was in one case returning from injury, and in the other demonstrated a tempermental streak. In the main, 2x Hennessys, a GC, a Lexus etc. are a fantastic return for any horse. Nicholls certainly wouldn't want the horse to fail - his owner is, after all, Nicholls' landlord, and any victory, regardless of the horse which achieves it, raises the profile of the yard.

<snip>

Mod edit: anything included in [square brackets] was added by the mod following some minor snipping

convert

Cantoris wrote: »

Could you say then that Denman was acting as a pacemaker for Kauto Star?

LutherBlissett wrote: »

Denman acting as a pacemaker for Kauto Star? How in the world could you possibly have extrapolated that from what I have said in this thread?

I suspect what Cantoris wrote was written tongue-in-cheek? Or am I mistaken?

convert

Ok, people, let's keep things civil on this thread, and remember to attack the post, not the poster! Oh, and backing up and expanding upon your points would probably help in this respect, rather than just simply stating something along the lines of 'no, that's wrong because I say so!'

Cantoris

<snip> I was clearly responding to Huntthe's statement that Dick Turpin was not running on its merits and the implication that it was used as a pacemaker for Canford Cliffs. I then compared this to the implausible scenario of Denman acting as a pacemaker for Kauto Star. This had nothing to do with any of your posts <snip>

Cantoris

convert wrote: »

I suspect what Cantoris wrote was written tongue-in-cheek? Or am I mistaken?

Depends what you mean by tongue in cheek. The intimation that Dick Turpin has been used as a pacemaker for Canford Cliffs is similar to someone turning around and saying Denman was a pacemaker for Kauto Star. It's madness. Nothing to do with anything Luther has said so not sure why he got so upset.

LutherBlissett

Sorry Cantoris, misinterpreted your post!

knighted_1

a lot of sick faces when denman won

had kauto won they would have picked up the million bonus again

nicholas got nearly 30 grand for denman win ,it would have been 130,000 if kauto won

sam thomas qualified for 33 grand out of rubys 100 grand had kauto won
he got under 30 anyway fo denman

ruby would of got 77 grand

clive smith 700 grand down

stablestaff would of got 50 odd

maybe thats why they wernt happy

on the other hand findley won all that combined and more

hucklebuck

smartaform wrote: »

On the Denman/Kauto part, I think Nicholls does like Kauto better...
Denman is all about momentum, races on pace, solid pace throughout - NO turn of foot...Kauto can sit back, sit on pace and has a devastating turn of foot. So in a way Denman IS Kauto's pacemaker (when they meet) ...

That's my 2 cents lol

Sorry man you are miles off with that one, the reason a fit Denman finishes ahead of a fit Kauto is Kauto cannot live with Denmans gallop. I have always maintained that Kauto does not get the Gold Cup trip when they go a proper gallop.

I think Nicholls is a disgrace, Harry has been great for the game and Ditcheat and his trainer should have thrown his weight behind him.

smartaform

How does Kauto not get a Gold Cup trip at a proper gallop?

The time Denman won, Kauto had been injured at Ascot 6 weeks prior AND STILL ended up 2nd... What happened the year after??? Thats right Kauto won the GC Back - interesting.


I feel Nicholls did the right thing in regards to Findlay. The rules are owners can't lay their own horses - regardless what circumstances. Findlay knows/knew this and still proceeded with his lay bet. 6 months was a bit harsh but still rules were broken.

mdwexford

hucklebuck wrote: »

Sorry man you are miles off with that one, the reason a fit Denman finishes ahead of a fit Kauto is Kauto cannot live with Denmans gallop. I have always maintained that Kauto does not get the Gold Cup trip when they go a proper gallop.

I think Nicholls is a disgrace, Harry has been great for the game and Ditcheat and his trainer should have thrown his weight behind him.

You are the one miles off.

Hes won two Tingle Creeks, how do you think he wouldnt be able go the pace of a 3mile chaser??

Hes won 2 Gold Cups, there are no slow Gold Cups, he stays the trip, obviously.

Morgans

We've started early this year with the misconceptions.

Denman's fans, 1 win from the last 7 still believe.

Surely the money won on the horse throughout the last two years, and trust me when he won his novice hurdle at Wincanton, i thought I was watching a gold cup winner.

But seriously how many flaws does the horse have now. How many excuses do you have to make for the horse for him to considered Kauto Star's superior.

Morgans

mdwexford wrote: »

You are the one miles off.

Hes won two Tingle Creeks, how do you think he wouldnt be able go the pace of a 3mile chaser??

Hes won 2 Gold Cups, there are no slow Gold Cups, he stays the trip, obviously.

Presumably the thought is that a fit Denman could run Kauto off his feet over 2m also.

meriwether

Morgans wrote: »

We've started early this year with the misconceptions.

Denman's fans, 1 win from the last 7 still believe.

Surely the money won on the horse throughout the last two years, and trust me when he won his novice hurdle at Wincanton, i thought I was watching a gold cup winner.

But seriously how many flaws does the horse have now. How many excuses do you have to make for the horse for him to considered Kauto Star's superior.

The one excuse I could think off the top of my head as to why Denman is superior to Kauto is that in the three times they have met in the Gold Cup, Denam has finished ahead of him twice. Which would be more times than Kauto has finished ahead of Denman.

The title of best staying chaser is not given in Tingle Creeks or King Georges. It's given in gold cups.

Kauto is better than Denman over 2m, 2.4f on a flat track and on any track or distance where he dictates his pace.

Denman is better over 3.2f when fully fit over the gold cup course, as shown with ease in 2007. Since then he hasn't been right, but still had the happy distinction of finishing ahead of Kauto this year.

meriwether

mdwexford wrote: »

You are the one miles off.

Hes won two Tingle Creeks, how do you think he wouldnt be able go the pace of a 3mile chaser??

Hes won 2 Gold Cups, there are no slow Gold Cups, he stays the trip, obviously.

He stays the trip, but is far less effective over the extra 2f up the hill than at Kempton.

Unless you have another reason as to why Exotic dancer is beaten by a distance in Kempton, but gets to within 2.5l at Cheltenham in the same year.

Morgans

meriwether wrote: »

The one excuse I could think off the top of my head as to why Denman is superior to Kauto is that in the three times they have met in the Gold Cup, Denam has finished ahead of him twice. Which would be more times than Kauto has finished ahead of Denman.

The title of best staying chaser is not given in Tingle Creeks or King Georges. It's given in gold cups.

Kauto is better than Denman over 2m, 2.4f on a flat track and on any track or distance where he dictates his pace.

Denman is better over 3.2f when fully fit over the gold cup course, as shown with ease in 2007. Since then he hasn't been right, but still had the happy distinction of finishing ahead of Kauto this year.

Of course, believing that Kauto Star ran near his best that day, assumes that he is a short head better than Neptune Collonges. Never let the facts get in the way of a good opinion I suppose. Kauto Star didnt finish last year. I think the mistake had done for him early on, but implying that he finished is also wrong.

Its this dictate his own pace that really has me baffled by Denman fans. a) Neptune Collonges led in that gold cup b) Denman's pace took Kauto Star out of his comfort zone, but Kauto Star would beat him at 2m simply doesnt add up. That Denman was going too quick for him, but Kauto Star would beat him in a speed test. I dont get it c) I cant remember Kauto Star dictating the pace in any race. Usually best coming off the pace.

I am willing to concede that Kauto Star is at his best away from Cheltenham. That he won two gold cups is testament to his sheer ability. But I cant believe that there are still still people questioning his stamina.

There is no title to best staying chaser. I suppose you believe Imperial Commander to be the best staying chaser of last year, or is it only when it suits your argument.

As for Findlay, Nicholls is well rid of him.

meriwether

Morgans wrote: »

Of course, believing that Kauto Star ran near his best that day, assumes that he is a short head better than Neptune Collonges. Never let the facts get in the way of a good opinion I suppose. Kauto Star didnt finish last year. I think the mistake had done for him early on, but implying that he finished is also wrong.

Its this dictate his own pace that really has me baffled by Denman fans. a) Neptune Collonges led in that gold cup b) Denman's pace took Kauto Star out of his comfort zone, but Kauto Star would beat him at 2m simply doesnt add up. That Denman was going too quick for him, but Kauto Star would beat him in a speed test. I dont get it c) I cant remember Kauto Star dictating the pace in any race. Usually best coming off the pace.

I am willing to concede that Kauto Star is at his best away from Cheltenham. That he won two gold cups is testament to his sheer ability. But I cant believe that there are still still people questioning his stamina.

There is no title to best staying chaser. I suppose you believe Imperial Commander to be the best staying chaser of last year, or is it only when it suits your argument.

As for Findlay, Nicholls is well rid of him.

I never said Kauto Star was finished. If we're going to have a discussion about the merits of KS v Denman, then lets try and stick to whats said.

Kauto Star would be better at 2m in Sandown or Cheltenham, and would be better every single day at 3m in Kempton.

Denman is finished, IMO.
But in his prime, he was better than KS over 3m2f at Cheltenham than Kauto Star ever could be at 3m2f at Cheltenham. I have that minor statistic of Denman finishing ahead of Kauto twice in a head to head at Cheltenham versus KS once to back that up.

While you have made the excus ethat KS may not have been at his best in 2007 (I don't particularly buy that, he didn't run much different to the year before when he was 2.5l ahead of Exotic) we know for an absolute medical fact that Denman was not at his best the year KS chinned him.

Morgans

meriwether wrote: »

I never said Kauto Star was finished. If we're going to have a discussion about the merits of KS v Denman, then lets try and stick to whats said.

That is a lovely lecture but if you followed your own patronising advice and read what I said it would be great. Claiming that Denman finished ahead of Kauto Star last year is implying that Cerium and Mr Pointment also are superior to Kauto Star using last March's Gold Cup as a guide. I dont think anyone would be so foolish to say Wee Robbie finished ahead of Denman in last year's Aon Chase, just because Denman didnt finish.

meriwether wrote: »

While you have made the excus ethat KS may not have been at his best in 2007 (I don't particularly buy that, he didn't run much different to the year before when he was 2.5l ahead of Exotic) we know for an absolute medical fact that Denman was not at his best the year KS chinned him.

Anyone who watches racing regularly would know that Kauto Star didnt run next or near his best in 2008 - when Denman won. Funny. Using Neptune Collonges as a far far better guide, Denman ran pretty much identical races in 2009 and 2008. Of course, Im forgetting about the one rule for Denman another rule for Kauto Star.

It is not an absolute medical fact that Denman ran injured in 2009. Link anywhere to this. Again, something in the minds of the Denman fans looking to bolster up a flawed argument. So injured that he ran three weeks later. But again, another excuse was needed when he fell then. The one-eyed nature of Denman fans is astonishing.

Morgans

Ah yeah. Always trying to help. Yearning for some proper racing I suppose. But I do think that the best forums have threads that end up as the discussion takes them, not preset limits. As if the discussion would be fine, but the title of the thread matters. Painful or not, you dont have to contribute if you dont want to.

meriwether

Morgans wrote: »

That is a lovely lecture but if you followed your own patronising advice and read what I said it would be great. Claiming that Denman finished ahead of Kauto Star last year is implying that Cerium and Mr Pointment also are superior to Kauto Star using last March's Gold Cup as a guide. I dont think anyone would be so foolish to say Wee Robbie finished ahead of Denman in last year's Aon Chase, just because Denman didnt finish.



Anyone who watches racing regularly would know that Kauto Star didnt run next or near his best in 2008 - when Denman won. Funny. Using Neptune Collonges as a far far better guide, Denman ran pretty much identical races in 2009 and 2008. Of course, Im forgetting about the one rule for Denman another rule for Kauto Star.

It is not an absolute medical fact that Denman ran injured in 2009. Link anywhere to this. Again, something in the minds of the Denman fans looking to bolster up a flawed argument. So injured that he ran three weeks later. But again, another excuse was needed when he fell then. The one-eyed nature of Denman fans is astonishing.

While you may think I'm being patronising, I'm merely at no point did I say Kauto is finished.

The next thing you claim I said that I actually didn't was that Denman was injured in 2008. I did not. I said he wasn't at his best. There is a subtle difference, but quite a big one. I can give you a patronising explanation if the difference if you would like.

My reasoning for this is his generally accepted non-ideal preparation in the run up to the race. I presume you are aware of this, it being commented on by jockey, trainer and owner at various stages. If you are unaware of this, I will provide some helpful links if required. I will admit that my statement 'absolute medical fact' is unprovable, having no access to vets reports or the like. But I think we all know what I mean.

You seem to think this is a Denman v Kauto thing, and I fall into the Denman camp, and seem blind to his flaws and blind to the brilliance of Kauto.

Morgans wrote: »

Claiming that Denman finished ahead of Kauto Star last year is implying that Cerium and Mr Pointment also are superior to Kauto Star using last March's Gold Cup as a guide. I dont think anyone would be so foolish to say Wee Robbie finished ahead of Denman in last year's Aon Chase, just because Denman didnt finish.

You're very correct to state that Cerium isn't a better horse than KS on the basis of one race when KS fell. Good thing I didn't. Nor did I in the case of Denman and Kauto.
One can state that Cerium and Mr pointment were superior to Kauto on that day with absolute certainty, as jumping and finishing races is a vital pre-requisite to being a succesful jumps racer, as anyone who watches racing can tell you. Also on that vein, Wee Robbie was certainly better than Denman on the day they raced. Now, whether Wee Robbie is better than Denman in entirety would probably have to be viewed on a historical head to head, with more than one race probably needed.

Ergo, Denman was certainly better than Kauto in last years Gold cup, as he finished, and Kauto did not. And in a historical head to head, he also beat him in 2007, but lost in 2008.

I'd also like to address some of your comments regarding the 'one eyed nature of Denman fans' and waffle about 'one rule for Kauto and another for Denman'.

You seem to be characterising what I am saying as being blind to the flaws of Denman and to the brilliance of Kauto, which is plainly not the case.

I will repeat again, KS was the better over 2m, 2m4f, and 3 miles on a flat in Kempton.
Nor did he 'not get the trip' at cheltenham, or have stamina problems. However, he wasn't as effective over the extra 2 and uphill as he was on Boxing day.

Denman, in his prime was better than KS at Cheltenham.
Its there in black and white.

Morgans

meriwether wrote: »

Denman, in his prime was better than KS at Cheltenham.
Its there in black and white.

Too many things wrong in that post to go through. But this last one is wrong. It is not there in black and white.

The score between the two is 1-1, with question marks over both races, Unfortunately, we didnt get the decider that everyone hoped for last March. To use Kauto Star's fall as evidence against him is nonsense. Just as had Denman fell at the first, and Kauto Star won, it would not have been conclusive proof of Kauto Star's superiority. To suggest otherwise, is nonsense.

The idea that Cerium, Mr Pointment or Wee Robbie were better on those days than Kauto Star or Denman is completely wrong. It is a complete misreading of form for it to be so. They werent better, even though they finished. In general, given that handicappers (timeform, RPR, offical handicappers) can provide ratings of horses that fall, it would be interesting to see if Denman was in fact given a lower rating than Wee Robbie for the Aon. It definitely cannot be said with absolute certainty that Wee Robbie was better than Denman in the Aon.

Denman's prepartion of the 2009 gold cup wasn't ideal. It wasnt, but I dont think that he was nearly as effected as many believe. If anything he excelled himself then. He was so off-form that he ran three weeks later....

You omit to say that Kauto Star's prepartion for the Gold Cup changed after his defeat in 2008, as they felt the horse was better fresh. One of his best performances came in the Ascot Chase before the gold Cup. Something they learned from.

Yet, it seems to be stated with absolute certainty that Kauto Star ran to form in March 2008.

Cantoris

I don't have a favourite between Denman and Kauto Star. I think we've been lucky to have the two of them racing at the same time.

From a punting perspective, I always thought that the ground made a huge difference to these horses. On soft ground, I think Denman would grind out a win against Kauto. That's his style of racing. He keeps going. Kauto's niche is his ability to travel well and quicken (suited by Kepmton). He does stay the gold cup trip but I think Denman stays it better. So the faster the ground the better chance Kauto has to quicken two out and put it to bed. The softer, then Denman has a better chance of being able to come back at the last. There probably isn't a whole lot between them ability wise, but the ground is a key factor.

Morgans

Cantoris wrote: »

I don't have a favourite between Denman and Kauto Star. I think we've been lucky to have the two of them racing at the same time.

From a punting perspective, I always thought that the ground made a huge difference to these horses. On soft ground, I think Denman would grind out a win against Kauto. That's his style of racing. He keeps going. Kauto's niche is his ability to travel well and quicken (suited by Kepmton). He does stay the gold cup trip but I think Denman stays it better. So the faster the ground the better chance Kauto has to quicken two out and put it to bed. The softer, then Denman has a better chance of being able to come back at the last. There probably isn't a whole lot between them ability wise, but the ground is a key factor.

Interestingly, Denman has run once on heavy and run once on soft, both novice chase wins. The only two times he has run on anything worse than good to soft.

In England, Kauto Star is 6/7 on ground worse than good to soft. The one he lost was the remouting.

I can see why the heavy topped Denman would lead you to that conclusion. Im just not sure the proof is there.

meriwether

Morgans wrote: »

Too many things wrong in that post to go through. But this last one is wrong. It is not there in black and white.

The score between the two is 1-1, with question marks over both races, Unfortunately, we didnt get the decider that everyone hoped for last March. To use Kauto Star's fall as evidence against him is nonsense. Just as had Denman fell at the first, and Kauto Star won, it would not have been conclusive proof of Kauto Star's superiority. To suggest otherwise, is nonsense.

The idea that Cerium, Mr Pointment or Wee Robbie were better on those days than Kauto Star or Denman is completely wrong. It is a complete misreading of form for it to be so. They werent better, even though they finished. In general, given that handicappers (timeform, RPR, offical handicappers) can provide ratings of horses that fall, it would be interesting to see if Denman was in fact given a lower rating than Wee Robbie for the Aon. It definitely cannot be said with absolute certainty that Wee Robbie was better than Denman in the Aon.

Denman's prepartion of the 2009 gold cup wasn't ideal. It wasnt, but I dont think that he was nearly as effected as many believe. If anything he excelled himself then. He was so off-form that he ran three weeks later....

You omit to say that Kauto Star's prepartion for the Gold Cup changed after his defeat in 2008, as they felt the horse was better fresh. One of his best performances came in the Ascot Chase before the gold Cup. Something they learned from.

Yet, it seems to be stated with absolute certainty that Kauto Star ran to form in March 2008.

It is not stated by me at any time that KS definitely ran to form in 2008 in yet another example of stuff I didn't say. This is getting a bit tiresome to be honest, along with the characterisation of my opinion as biased Denmania, excusing him at every turn while at the same time being terribly unfair to poor old Kauto.

I backed KS heavily that day on course in 2008 as I felt his King George form with Our Vic easily trumped Denman's form with Mossbank in the Lexus when Our Vic and Mossbank finished closely in the Ryanair on the Thursday.
I have absoolutely no complaints aboiut doing my dough that day for the simple reason that KS runs nowhere near his Kempton form at Cheltenham. That is quite clear over 4 years of easy wins in Kempton, the ease and class of which has never ever been replicated in Cheltenham. That is not saying he doesn't get Chetlenham, or has stamina worries, ar whatever else your having. its simply a fact. If you have a better reason for Exotic Dancer being miles back at Kempton and 2.5 behind in Cheltenham in 2007, I'd like to hear it.

In relation to the side debate we are having about horses falling, quite simply if a horse falls, a horse completing has performed better that day. Its quite simple. I don't give a flying fukk about RPR or timeform or speedratings in that context. If you fall over, you are most likely excuseless unless brought down.

One can say its a fluke that KS fell in the last gold cup, and for that reason the result is worthless.
Or one can say that Kauto's tendency to make a jumping mistake are punished severly at Cheltenham under a fast gallop, mistakes he got away with in Kempton when clouting the last one year. And the reason he makes mistakes at Cheltenham (like he did in the QM the year Newmill won) is because Cheltenham doesn't play to his strenghts.

Cheltenham plays to Denman's strength's, a relentless galloper who jumps very well consistently (excluding Aintree, and including that he certainly jumps better than KS).

Denman is a horse for a course, that course is Cheltanham, and he has performed better than KS in 2 of the 3 times they have met.
I simply wont accept that KS falling means one result is null and void or inconclusive.

If anything he excelled himself then. He was so off-form that he ran three weeks later....

Of course, KS ran pretty quickly after his 2008 defeat as well didn't he? I suppose by your logic, he therefore wasn't off form for Cheltenham either?
Must have been just beaten by a better horse then.

Morgans

I used to love Denman and even on here I was trumpeting his praises long before many, can remember putting him up as great ante post value for the SAH, which obviously failed. An equine wrecking ball. A Carvills Hill that could jump and delighted he got to win a Gold Cup. Unlike, a horse like Well Chief who missed out because he was unlucky enough to be born at the same time as similarly exceptionally talented horses. However, Denman's supporters are so one sided that its got me hoping he'd lose.

Another Denman misconception is that his course is Cheltenham. His best performances are at Newbury, flat as a pancake where his huge frame and stride can be used to bludgeon horses into the ground. Its one of the reasons why the Grand National appeals so much as a target for the owners. Flat, big, galloping track with long straights where jumping rhythm can demoralise opposition. I can remember watching the Morning Line the week before 2008 gold cup where Nicholls felt both horses were of similar ability but that Cheltenham suited Kauto Star so much better, the tight, turning nature of the course wouldnt suit Denman.

Denman clearly can cope with Cheltenham, but he is 4 wins from 7 at the course.

Newbury 5 from 6 including two hennesseys (unseating in the Aon being the only blip)

And while, Meriweather is entitled to his opinion of timeform, RPR or the official handicappers not mattering a fukk, I'm entitled to respect them more than his opinion. All believe Denman's Hennessey to be his best ever performance. Never let facts get in the way of a good opinion though.

As for Exotic Dancer. The 2007 Gold Cup was run in a crawl, and Exotic Dancer was on one of his better days (at a course he thrived on) He was a high class horse on his day, but unable to live with kauto star when on song. Kauto Star was also ridden with more restraint that day as there were question marks about his stamina.

As for Kauto Star and Denman losing at Aintree. Both thought they were decent pots for horses that were well clear in the ratings. For Kauto Star, I think Nicholls and Walsh couldnt believe how poorly Kauto Star ran at Cheltenham when defeated. It was clear that he wasnt going to win after 6f. Never travelling. Whatever form he was in, they thought they could get away with it against opposition he had beaten by a distance 4 months earlier. But Gold Cups are murderous. The Betfair Bowl has been a gravyard for Gold Cup horses. They were wrong and changed their preparation for the Gold Cup after that. No more Tingle Creeks and straight to the festival after Kempton. With Denman, they were making up for lost time after the injury and thought that without Kauto Star in the picture they only had to turn up to win decent money. Denman's run was abject before falling. Both times Nicholls were wrong - as he was with Master Minded the same year. I think Denman ran pretty close to his form in the Gold Cup but he wasn't raced as aggressively as he should have been. Neither horse won because they were feeling the effects of a brutal race at cheltenham - like Imperial Commander this year. The idea that Denman was medically proven to be wrong three weeks earlier is wrong.

convert

Seeing as there was so much discussion on Denman v Kauto in the Findlay and Nichols thread, I've started a thread here and moved all the relevant posts to this thread. Hopefully it makes sense (it's after midnight and I've just had one hell of a day that I want to forget about), but if you spot something amiss could you please PM me about it. Thanks

Also, we all know it's a heated debate and everyone has their favourite, but could we please keep all posts civil and polite; otherwise infractions and bannings may occur.

And remember, if you have an issue with a post, please remember to use the report post function (the little triangle underneath the username on the left hand side of the post you have issue with) rather than replying on thread and risking an infraction or ban.

Cantoris

Morgans wrote: »

Interestingly, Denman has run once on heavy and run once on soft, both novice chase wins. The only two times he has run on anything worse than good to soft.

In England, Kauto Star is 6/7 on ground worse than good to soft. The one he lost was the remouting.

I can see why the heavy topped Denman would lead you to that conclusion. Im just not sure the proof is there.

You can use statistics to prove anything. Over 3m on a flat track, I think soft ground is fine for Kauto. It's the extra 2 furlongs on a stiff track like Cheltenham where I think the ground is more important to him. Look at One Man. Could win anything over 3m but couldn't stay the extra 2f of a Gold Cup. And the stats will say that Dessie won a soft ground Gold Cup.....who would have thought that!!

Stamina is Denman's strong suit and softer ground just helps him out stay the opposition. IMO every drop of rain that falls before the Gold Cup only helps Denman's chances and weakens Kauto's chances. The outcome of the race will depend on what the actual ground is. For example, on firm ground I think Kauto would win, one good ground Kauto, on good to soft it gets interesting and on soft or heavy I'd be edging to Denman. But that assumes they both show up in top form which they haven't over the years. One is normally in better form than the other.

Morgans

Cantoris wrote: »

You can use statistics to prove anything. Over 3m on a flat track, I think soft ground is fine for Kauto. It's the extra 2 furlongs on a stiff track like Cheltenham where I think the ground is more important to him. Look at One Man. Could win anything over 3m but couldn't stay the extra 2f of a Gold Cup. And the stats will say that Dessie won a soft ground Gold Cup.....who would have thought that!!

Stamina is Denman's strong suit and softer ground just helps him out stay the opposition. IMO every drop of rain that falls before the Gold Cup only helps Denman's chances and weakens Kauto's chances. The outcome of the race will depend on what the actual ground is. For example, on firm ground I think Kauto would win, one good ground Kauto, on good to soft it gets interesting and on soft or heavy I'd be edging to Denman. But that assumes they both show up in top form which they haven't over the years. One is normally in better form than the other.

Apologies for attempting to get closer to the answer using facts rather than subjective opinion. Kauto Star's record on good ground....3/7.

Dismiss it as using stats and feel free to use One Man's (or maybe Florida Pearl's) experience to prove your point about Kauto Star. If kauo Star showed anywhere that he lacked stamina anywhere, there might be some co-relation. At the moment, there is none. Excuse me for believe it to be a most haphazard way of getting to the truth of the matter. Just because the horse has speed doesnt mean he lacks stamina. Just as Dessie was able to win Tingle Creeks (as a handicap) and Irish nationals. I think the idea that kauto star is vulnerable stamina wise in a gold cup was wrong then and still is wrong now. The idea that soft ground hinders him more than Denman is very very much unproven. Again, I believe it to be a misconception.

Morgans

Its the way Kauto Star runs when he is off form that shows that I think is pretty much limitless stamina. Denman stops as if shot when he struggles (when he is off form), like Newbury before the mistake in the Aon, travelling well at the cross fence, legless at the third last. Blows up. Kauto star in the Gold cup 2008 and especially when he was second to Monet's Garden in the Old Roan Chase in 2006, looked as if he was going to be pulled up down the back, and somehow got himself back in with a chance, plugging on after all seemed lost to get placed. Kauto Star was gaining coming down to the last in the Gold Cup 2008, when Denman seemed legless (having put in a huge magnificent effort to get that far ahead).

Cantoris

Morgans, can you post up the races which the stats relate to.

Some would call Kauto a thinker. In the Old Roan, he showed no interest whatsoever in the first half of that race. I think Nicholls even talked about blinkers after that. And Denman has become a thinker, maybe as a result of some tough races earlier in his career. Both have plenty of days when they do not perform at 100%.

Morgans

Easiest way to check.

I think labelling him a thinker is harsh. Not sure Nicholls completely knows how well or otherwise both are going at home. Denman looked to have soured at Punchestown but I do think that the gold cup is a murderous race. Amazing training performance to the two horses compete so well for so long.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=579373

gscully

smartaform wrote: »

The time Denman won, Kauto had been injured at Ascot 6 weeks prior AND STILL ended up 2nd...

Just about! Pacemaker Neptune Collonges almost pipped him on the line.

smartaform wrote: »

What happened the year after??? Thats right Kauto won the GC Back - interesting.

Why didn't you mention that Denman barely got to run in that race after his heart problems? Because it might dilute your argument??

meriwether

I used to love Denman ..... However, Denman's supporters are so one sided that its got me hoping he'd lose.

I wish you told me that at the start, then I wouldn't have bothered. I assumed this was a logical discussion argument about the merits of 2 horses. I was clearly wrong, and what a waste of thime that was.

And while, Meriweather is entitled to his opinion of timeform, RPR or the official handicappers not mattering a fukk, I'm entitled to respect them more than his opinion. All believe Denman's Hennessey to be his best ever performance. Never let facts get in the way of a good opinion though.

Please review the context of what I said. I have respect for performance measurements such as above. I was stating they are pointless when a horse falls, in my opinion. Not that they are valueless in entirety.

Morgans

meriwether wrote: »

I wish you told me that at the start, then I wouldn't have bothered. I assumed this was a logical discussion argument about the merits of 2 horses. I was clearly wrong, and what a waste of thime that was.

Just point out where I havent been logical about the horses merits. Rather than simply throwing your toys out of the pram because your arguements are stacking up. The only reason that it seems like Im on Kauto's side is because of a plethora of idiots (not you as such) who are so blindly follow the horse as if he was Arkle and Kauto was overrated despite logical reason against them. I can remember arguing with mdwexford on here, after Sam THomas unseated off Kauto Star at Haydock that Kauto Star's best days were behind him. I've no problem being proven wrong, but please enlighten me with evidence, not patronising clap-trap.

meriwether

Morgans wrote: »

Just point out where I havent been logical about the horses merits. Rather than simply throwing your toys out of the pram because your arguements are stacking up. The only reason that it seems like Im on Kauto's side is because of a plethora of idiots (not you as such) who are so blindly follow the horse as if he was Arkle and Kauto was overrated despite logical reason against them. I can remember arguing with mdwexford on here, after Sam THomas unseated off Kauto Star at Haydock that Kauto Star's best days were behind him. I've no problem being proven wrong, but please enlighten me with evidence, not patronising clap-trap.

I believe the sentiment 'I dislike Denman's fans so much I began to hope he would lose' wouldn't count as logical, don't you? Frankly, its one of the more dafter sentiments I have come across.
When we start from that point, how on earth are we ever going to get to the right destination?

I'm perfectly happy that my arguments do in fact stand up, but that people are free to disagree with them without either side being necessarily being incorrect, as KS v Denman is about opinions and sentiment.

And, rather than patronise you with clap-trap, I have on a few occassions pointed out that your representations of my arguments are incorrect.

-That I said KS was right fitness wise in 2008
-That I said KS was 'finished'
-That I said Denman was definitely injured in 2009
-That I said RPR, Timeform etc wasn't worth a fukk in entirety.

Hulk Hands

From my own point of view, at most tracks and distances Kauto is the better horse. Yet over 3m 2f at Cheltenham Denman wins out.

In 2008, Kauto was subject to a small foot problem after Ascot that connections downplayed. It cannot be given as a reason as to why he underperformed that year. He simply underperformed as he was unable to travel and jump at the pace Denman was asking him to go. Before people spout on about tingle creeks, it is a very different matter to go that pace for 3 miles rather than 2. I believe the pace in Kauto tingle creeks and the Gold cup of 2008 are comparable. The ground was soft in 2008, which didnt help Kauto to travel.

However, this is the main reason Kauto couldnt compete in 2008, as in 2010. He simply cant jump around Cheltenham at that pace. Look back to his Queen mother fall of 2006, his shoddy jumping in 2008, and his fall when Denman turned the screw in 2010. He cant jump around Cheltenham at that pace. And that for me makes Denman the better Gold Cup horse. The only times Kauto jumped well at Cheltenham were in the "snails pace Gold Cup's of 2007 and 2009.

As far as excuses go, Denman's excuse in 2009 looks genuine. He was nearly taken out the week before. He was clearly nursed around. If not, then explain to me why Sam Thomas didnt kick on someway out like he did the year before? He was never ridden to win that race.

So where does that leave us? A 2-1 score to Denman with the only question mark being over Kauto's victory. Kauto couldnt jump or go the pace for 3 miles in 2008 (Before neptune is mentioned, let me point out that the slog Denman turned it into suited Neptune much more. He, unlike Kauto, could jump well at that pace and he was suited to the gruelling race. He also produced a career best performance. This explain his close proximity to Kauto at the finish.). He couldn't jump well enough at that pace in 2010. Denman wins the "Best GC horse" title hands down.

mdwexford

Hulk Hands wrote: »

From my own point of view, at most tracks and distances Kauto is the better horse. Yet over 3m 2f at Cheltenham Denman wins out.

In 2008, Kauto was subject to a small foot problem after Ascot that connections downplayed. It cannot be given as a reason as to why he underperformed that year. He simply underperformed as he was unable to travel and jump at the pace Denman was asking him to go. Before people spout on about tingle creeks, it is a very different matter to go that pace for 3 miles rather than 2. I believe the pace in Kauto tingle creeks and the Gold cup of 2008 are comparable. The ground was soft in 2008, which didnt help Kauto to travel.

However, this is the main reason Kauto couldnt compete in 2008, as in 2010. He simply cant jump around Cheltenham at that pace. Look back to his Queen mother fall of 2006, his shoddy jumping in 2008, and his fall when Denman turned the screw in 2010. He cant jump around Cheltenham at that pace. And that for me makes Denman the better Gold Cup horse. The only times Kauto jumped well at Cheltenham were in the "snails pace Gold Cup's of 2007 and 2009.

As far as excuses go, Denman's excuse in 2009 looks genuine. He was nearly taken out the week before. He was clearly nursed around. If not, then explain to me why Sam Thomas didnt kick on someway out like he did the year before? He was never ridden to win that race.

So where does that leave us? A 2-1 score to Denman with the only question mark being over Kauto's victory. Kauto couldnt jump or go the pace for 3 miles in 2008 (Before neptune is mentioned, let me point out that the slog Denman turned it into suited Neptune much more. He, unlike Kauto, could jump well at that pace and he was suited to the gruelling race. He also produced a career best performance. This explain his close proximity to Kauto at the finish.). He couldn't jump well enough at that pace in 2010. Denman wins the "Best GC horse" title hands down.

Wow, couldnt disagree with this more.

Disagree with meriweather as well.

Not going into more detail because its been done to death and Morgans has made the points i would make.

Hulk Hands

mdwexford wrote: »

Wow, couldnt disagree with this more.

Disagree with meriweather as well.

Not going into more detail because its been done to death and Morgans has made the points i would make.

Or maybe it's beacuse I have wiped out the usual excuses Kauto fans always fall back on, namely his ability to travel at 2 mile speed and Neptune Collonges close finish to Kauto.

mdwexford

Hulk Hands wrote: »

From my own point of view, at most tracks and distances Kauto is the better horse. Yet over 3m 2f at Cheltenham Denman wins out.

In 2008, Kauto was subject to a small foot problem after Ascot that connections downplayed. It cannot be given as a reason as to why he underperformed that year. He simply underperformed as he was unable to travel and jump at the pace Denman was asking him to go. Before people spout on about tingle creeks, it is a very different matter to go that pace for 3 miles rather than 2. I believe the pace in Kauto tingle creeks and the Gold cup of 2008 are comparable. The ground was soft in 2008, which didnt help Kauto to travel.

However, this is the main reason Kauto couldnt compete in 2008, as in 2010. He simply cant jump around Cheltenham at that pace. Look back to his Queen mother fall of 2006, his shoddy jumping in 2008, and his fall when Denman turned the screw in 2010. He cant jump around Cheltenham at that pace. And that for me makes Denman the better Gold Cup horse. The only times Kauto jumped well at Cheltenham were in the "snails pace Gold Cup's of 2007 and 2009.

As far as excuses go, Denman's excuse in 2009 looks genuine. He was nearly taken out the week before. He was clearly nursed around. If not, then explain to me why Sam Thomas didnt kick on someway out like he did the year before? He was never ridden to win that race.

So where does that leave us? A 2-1 score to Denman with the only question mark being over Kauto's victory. Kauto couldnt jump or go the pace for 3 miles in 2008 (Before neptune is mentioned, let me point out that the slog Denman turned it into suited Neptune much more. He, unlike Kauto, could jump well at that pace and he was suited to the gruelling race. He also produced a career best performance. This explain his close proximity to Kauto at the finish.). He couldn't jump well enough at that pace in 2010. Denman wins the "Best GC horse" title hands down.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Or maybe it's beacuse I have wiped out the usual excuses Kauto fans always fall back on, namely his ability to travel at 2 mile speed and Neptune Collonges close finish to Kauto.

Ok you have annoyed me now so now i will reply.

He was obviously not at his best in the 2008 Gold Cup, horses are not machines, its that simple.
To say at peak finess he is unable to go the pace of a horse like Denman is hilariously inaccurate.

To say the pace of the Gold Cup and Tingle Creek are comparable is possibly the most stupid thing i have ever read. Lol at you.

He jumps well at any pace, all horses fall at times.

Kauto has the highest crusing speed of any 3mile chaser in training, by a considerable margin. He can easily lay up with Denman.

You are spouting total garbage.

bit of a bogey

Hulk Hands wrote: »

From my own point of view, at most tracks and distances Kauto is the better horse. Yet over 3m 2f at Cheltenham Denman wins out.

In 2008, Kauto was subject to a small foot problem after Ascot that connections downplayed. It cannot be given as a reason as to why he underperformed that year. He simply underperformed as he was unable to travel and jump at the pace Denman was asking him to go. Before people spout on about tingle creeks, it is a very different matter to go that pace for 3 miles rather than 2. I believe the pace in Kauto tingle creeks and the Gold cup of 2008 are comparable. The ground was soft in 2008, which didnt help Kauto to travel.

However, this is the main reason Kauto couldnt compete in 2008, as in 2010? He simply cant jump around Cheltenham at that pace. Look back to his Queen mother fall of 2006, his shoddy jumping in 2008, and his fall when Denman turned the screw in 2010. He cant jump around Cheltenham at that pace. And that for me makes Denman the better Gold Cup horse. The only times Kauto jumped well at Cheltenham were in the "snails pace Gold Cup's of 2007 and 2009.

As far as excuses go, Denman's excuse in 2009 looks genuine. He was nearly taken out the week before. He was clearly nursed around. If not, then explain to me why Sam Thomas didnt kick on someway out like he did the year before? He was never ridden to win that race.

So where does that leave us? A 2-1 score to Denman with the only question mark being over Kauto's victory. Kauto couldnt jump or go the pace for 3 miles in 2008 (Before neptune is mentioned, let me point out that the slog Denman turned it into suited Neptune much more. He, unlike Kauto, could jump well at that pace and he was suited to the gruelling race. He also produced a career best performance. This explain his close proximity to Kauto at the finish.). He couldn't jump well enough at that pace in 2010. Denman wins the "Best GC horse" title hands down.

Well I for the most part agree with you Hulk!

One or two things I wudnt 100% agree with but good post. Your first sentence sums it all up. They are two very good horses with different qualities. In my opinion Denman would never have won the 2 Tingle Creeks that Kauto won and Kauto would never have won the 2 Hennessy’s that Denman won.

Kauto has more acceleration and speed whilst Denman has more endurance and strength. Simple as.

Looking at their rivalry in Gold Cups. I’d say Denman comes out on top. The only time Kauto has beaten Denman in the GC is when Denman definitely was not at 100%. It is quite possible that Kauto was not 100% in 2008 but what was the excuse in 2010? Ruby knew he was beaten half way round and I dont believe for a second that he would have finished in front of Denman had he not fallen. I believe it was the race pace in 2008 and 2010 that stopped Kauto performing to his best.

I even believe that Denman could have finished closer to Imperial Commander had McCoy kicked on earlier. I reckon the only reason he didnt was becase he was afraid of the mark it might leave on him. (i.e. he didn’t want to be the man possibly responsible for killing another exceptional horse!)

mdwexford

bit of a bogey wrote: »

I believe it was the race pace in 2008 and 2010 that stopped Kauto performing to his best.

Can you honestly not see how this is impossible.

He is arguably the fastest 3mile chaser of all time, how in gods name would he not be able to go the pace of Carruthers and Neptune Collonges.

Morgans

meriwether wrote: »

I believe the sentiment 'I dislike Denman's fans so much I began to hope he would lose' wouldn't count as logical, don't you? Frankly, its one of the more dafter sentiments I have come across.
When we start from that point, how on earth are we ever going to get to the right destination?

I'm perfectly happy that my arguments do in fact stand up, but that people are free to disagree with them without either side being necessarily being incorrect, as KS v Denman is about opinions and sentiment.

And, rather than patronise you with clap-trap, I have on a few occassions pointed out that your representations of my arguments are incorrect.

-That I said KS was right fitness wise in 2008
-That I said KS was 'finished'
-That I said Denman was definitely injured in 2009
-That I said RPR, Timeform etc wasn't worth a fukk in entirety.

I never said that you said RPR or Timeform wasnt worth a fukk in entirely. You never said that and I never said it.

I never said that you said KS was finished. Where did I say that. If you can point that out to me, I will admit that everything you say was true.

I am searching for the post where you said it was an absolute medical fact that Denman wasnt himself in 2009.

More of your nonsense. But it clear that you have lost the argument with regard the content and are just too arrogant to continue other than the make up perceived slights I have committed against you. Shame.

bit of a bogey

mdwexford wrote: »

Can you honestly not see how this is impossible.

He is arguably the fastest 3mile chaser of all time, how in gods name would he not be able to go the pace of Carruthers and Neptune Collonges.

Because he doesnt have the stamina to go at that pace for 3mile 2 at cheltenham!!

mdwexford

bit of a bogey wrote: »

Because he doesnt have the stamina to go at that pace for 3mile 2 at cheltenham!!

But he was beaten so early in those races it was before stamina became an issue.

bit of a bogey

mdwexford wrote: »

But he was beaten so early in those races it was before stamina became an issue.

Its alot tougher to go a good lick round cheltenham compared to the majority of other courses. It takes a tough and durable horse to go at its optimum cruising speed round cheltenham.

It would be certainly fair to say Kauto has a better turn of foot but he could never use it to full effect round cheltenham as he had to work too hard to get to that point

mdwexford

bit of a bogey wrote: »

Its alot tougher to go a good lick round cheltenham compared to the majority of other courses. It takes a tough and durable horse to go at its optimum cruising speed round cheltenham.

It would be certainly fair to say Kauto has a better turn of foot but he could never use it to full effect round cheltenham as he had to work too hard to get to that point

He is the most tough and durable horse in training, imo at least.

But he was in trouble too early in both those races imo to make stamina or anything like that an issue. Admittedly he has disappointed in 2 out of 5 festivals though and its probably not his ideal track.

Still sounds silly to say that about a 2 time Gold Cup winner though.

Hulk Hands

mdwexford wrote: »

He was obviously not at his best in the 2008 Gold Cup, horses are not machines, its that simple.

Thats fair enough, but we can only go on what is put in front of us. If the excuse that a horse is wrong on any given day was spouted regularly, we would need 20+ races to determine which horse was superior.

mdwexford wrote: »

To say at peak finess he is unable to go the pace of a horse like Denman is hilariously inaccurate.

Im sure on a track with no fences over 2 miles Kauto would have no trouble laying up with Denman. However, going that relentless gallop for 3m 2f with a "peak of his powers" Denman while jumping some of the stiffest fences in racing is a different matter.

mdwexford wrote: »

To say the pace of the Gold Cup and Tingle Creek are comparable is possibly the most stupid thing i have ever read. Lol at you.

Why? Have a look back at Kauto's tingle creek wins. They were very slow run affairs in soft ground with the only quality opposition in either field being Voy por Ustedes who only showed his colous in the spring. On one of those days, Racing Demon the novice ran a faster course and distance time than Kauto's tingle creek. I would love to compare the times, but I dont think the GC pace was that far off.

mdwexford wrote: »

He jumps well at any pace, all horses fall at times.

I agree that he is a good jumper at most tracks. But please explain to me why he has a record of 2 falls out of 5 at Cheltenham, while he only has 2 falls in 15 or so races outside of Cheltenham. Even those were only a novicey fall at Exeter and a tired fall at the last at Haydock. Is it coincidence that he falls more often at Cheltenham? Is it coincidence that in the 3 races they went a good clip at Cheltenham, he fell twice and jumped poorly in the other? Why does he jump well at other tracks but has a 40% fall rate at Cheltenham? I'll let you come up with the answers, but to me he is a horse who can't jump consistently well enough at championship pace around Cheltenham.

Morgans

The horse sometimes makes mistakes. When he doesnt he is brilliant. He has clouted the last at Kempton on more than one occasion. It doesnt mean that Kempton doesn't suit him or what was the strongest paced King George that I can remember doesnt suit.

The idea that Kauto Star is quicker than Denman but cant go his pace early in long-distance races (even if it is Neptune Collonges that actually is leading) is the theory that I cannot reconcile.

mdwexford

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Thats fair enough, but we can only go on what is put in front of us. If the excuse that a horse is wrong on any given day was spouted regularly, we would need 20+ races to determine which horse was superior.

It is spouted very regularly though, not often a top class horse gets beaten without some sort of excuse coming out.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Im sure on a track with no fences over 2 miles Kauto would have no trouble laying up with Denman. However, going that relentless gallop for 3m 2f with a "peak of his powers" Denman while jumping some of the stiffest fences in racing is a different matter.

Again i mantain that Kauto was beaten before stamina became an issue in those Gold Cups, he obviously has a higher cruising speed than Neptune Collonges and Carruthers but those 2 horses had him in trouble to early for it to be his true running.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Why? Have a look back at Kauto's tingle creek wins. They were very slow run affairs in soft ground with the only quality opposition in either field being Voy por Ustedes who only showed his colous in the spring. On one of those days, Racing Demon the novice ran a faster course and distance time than Kauto's tingle creek. I would love to compare the times, but I dont think the GC pace was that far off.

They were slower than standard and on bad ground but id be amazed if the early sectionals werent significantly faster in a Grade 1 2 mile chase than a 3m2f Grade 1 race, id be interested to see the figures.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I agree that he is a good jumper at most tracks. But please explain to me why he has a record of 2 falls out of 5 at Cheltenham, while he only has 2 falls in 15 or so races outside of Cheltenham. Even those were only a novicey fall at Exeter and a tired fall at the last at Haydock. Is it coincidence that he falls more often at Cheltenham? Is it coincidence that in the 3 races they went a good clip at Cheltenham, he fell twice and jumped poorly in the other? Why does he jump well at other tracks but has a 40% fall rate at Cheltenham? I'll let you come up with the answers, but to me he is a horse who can't jump consistently well enough at championship pace around Cheltenham.

The fences obviously take more jumping at Cheltenham than anywhere else, his Champion Chase fall he was practically a novice, in Britain at least and was just going hell for leather to the second and that was it. This years fall was that of a tired horse trying to make up ground when he didnt have enough left in the tank to do so.

Again i think we would need more of a sample size than 5 races to make a judgement like your last sentence.

UrbanSea

Is it just me that's totally lost,where did the original post come from and convert's posts underneath?

convert

greetings wrote: »

Is it just me that's totally lost,where did the original post come from and convert's posts underneath?

Here.

Hulk Hands

Agree to disagree so MDWexford? I do agree that we need more than the 3 previous races to determine for sure which horse is the better Gold Cup horse. Sadly it looks as though Denman's days in that sphere are finished and if he does run in the race again it will be as a prep to the Grand National. I truley hope we see Kauto come back and regain his crown next year.