Heavy rain in Midlands and East this evening, risk of lightning

darkman2

Hi all,


Looks like some maybe very heavy rain for a time in some parts this evening with a risk of thunderstorms developing. Could lead to some spot flooding.







The Midlands and East look most at risk but most places will see heavy rain at times later today and overnight. The lot pushing North over night.

owenc

Yes the bbc show big massive green spots coming over me so maybe some thunder storms tonight, but that rain on the radar dosen't look too heavy. Lets hope so it would get rid of the boring weather.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Any idea what time this is expected to clear ??

I don't wanna get saturated at Oxegen !

IrishHomer

It srianing very heavy here in Offaly for the past hour.

WOnder is this it that was due this evening? No sign of it easing looks like today is going to be a day for the bed here

maquiladora

Heavest rain will over the eastern half of the country this evening, roughly between 3 and 9 ish. Fairly good chance there will be some thunder mixed in there too. Horrible conditions for July.

lord lucan

Possible Thunder?!:):):):):):):):)

DOCARCH

Also watch out for tornados!

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

Su Campu

Met Eireann's 18Z aviation Significant Weather chart has some isolated embedded thunderstorms in an area covering all of the country. The only mention of thunderstorms for any of the TAFs for the 13 airports on the island is for Galway, from 15Z.

nacho libre

Bucketing down here now. If today's heavy rain isn't enough for you.
The good news is that next Tuesday and into Wednesday we should have an area of Low Pressure moving in right over us.

woysworld

Su Campu wrote: »

Met Eireann's 18Z aviation Significant Weather chart has some isolated embedded thunderstorms in an area covering all but the extreme west of the country. The only mention of thunderstorms for any of the TAFs for the 13 airports on the island is for Galway, from 15Z.

was raining this morning in Dublin... its stopped now and fairly warm...

snaps

nacho libre wrote: »

Bucketing down here now. If today's heavy rain isn't enough for you.
The good news is that next Tuesday and into Wednesday we should have an area of Low Pressure moving in right over us.

Strange its bone dry here and the radar shows again its missing us. seems really to be moving NE up from Cork/Kerry!

owenc

Its ment to be thundery around about 9pm here, i hope i get it like the time the electricity was cut out and it lasted 3 hours into the morning, it was worst ever thunderstorm in northern ireland i think.

Takeshi_Kovacs

We had some very heavy rain from around 11.30 to 13.30 today, but has since died off. No thundery storms either

CJWRC94

Next Thursday looks to be the best day for convective activity this summer , we better just wait and hope GFS doesn't decide to change it's mind.:rolleyes:

Gonzo

in fairness i think the west of Ireland has seen only a fraction of the rain that the east has seen over the past 3 days, water levels must be back to normal here now.

owenc

Gonzo wrote: »

in fairness i think the west of Ireland has seen only a fraction of the rain that the east has seen over the past 3 days, water levels must be back to normal here now.

Apparently the east has had the most rain but i haven't had much rain infact its dry again and last night was just drizzle again! I really want a thunderstorm!

Cherrycola

Been raining here in the Midlands since early afternoon, after a long day of rain yesterday too.

And i think i heard a rumble of thunder just now, but it could have been a truck passing!.

djhaxman

owenc wrote: »

Its ment to be thundery around about 9pm here, i hope i get it like the time the electricity was cut out and it lasted 3 hours into the morning, it was worst ever thunderstorm in northern ireland i think.

You mustn't have been around in 1985 then.

owenc

Not near you but there is some lightening strikes poping up on the south west coast of the island, lets hope that they cover the whole island by tonight!

owenc

djhaxman wrote: »

You mustn't have been around in 1985 then.

Obviously not!! lol. That night cut off thousands of homes of power. Met office warning out YAY!

CJWRC94

Cherrycola wrote: »

Been raining here in the Midlands since early afternoon, after a long day of rain yesterday too.

And i think i heard a rumble of thunder just now, but it could have been a truck passing!.

Well maybe , lightning detectors have picked up a few strikes , but they all seem to well of the west coast , a good sign all the same , it will be later this evening the real thunder risk arrives and it will mainly the east/northeast aswell.

owenc

CJWRC94 wrote: »

Well maybe , lightning detectors have picked up a few strikes , but they all seem to well of the west coast , a good sign all the same , it will be later this evening the real thunder risk arrives and it will mainly the east/northeast aswell.

Yay all coming for me! Which thingy do you suggest would be best to use?

djhaxman

owenc wrote: »

Yay all coming for me! Which thingy do you suggest would be best to use?

A kite with a key on the end, recreate an old experiment.

owenc

djhaxman wrote: »

A kite with a key on the end, recreate an old experiment.

Naw i won't be doing that i'm not stupid. Are you trying to kill me.!:mad:

milly4ever

rain has started here, hope there is a storm tonight!

CJWRC94

owenc wrote: »

Yay all coming for me! Which thingy do you suggest would be best to use?

Well for you I'd advise this one: http://sproule.co.uk/weather/svlightning.html

Im going to mainly use this one: http://www.corklightning.com/

Might be good to see stuff coming from the south.

EDIT: Anybody in Clare seen anything , first strike onland according to that cork detector

owenc

CJWRC94 wrote: »

Well for you I'd advise this one: http://sproule.co.uk/weather/svlightning.html

Im going to mainly use this one: http://www.corklightning.com/

Might be good to see stuff coming from the south.

EDIT: Anybody in Clare seen anything , first strike onland according to that cork detector

Ok i shall use that.

maquiladora

Weather Warning

Issued at 10 July 2010 - 14:30
Updated Weather Alert for heavy rain.
The humid conditions will persist until late tonight and will give further heavy and thundery downpours in many areas.
Totals of 25 to 40 mm are expected.

snowstreams

I heard a rumble of thunder here in galway city there a while ago. It must have been that strike that was detected in Clare.

darkman2

The frontal boundary is approaching the East coast now hitting that humid air on this side of the country. I suspect the radar will be igniting shortly...keep an eye out here.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

When you see the yellows, light pinks, and reds indicating heavy rain from now on chances are there will be thunder and lightning aswell. Also keep an eye off the South coast too. Some beefy echos in the last two hours.

SexVicar

darkman2 wrote: »

The frontal boundary is approaching the East coast now hitting that humid air on this side of the country. I suspect the radar will be igniting shortly...keep an eye out here.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

When you see the yellows, light pinks, and reds indicating heavy rain from now on chances are there will be thunder and lightning aswell. Also keep an eye off the South coast too. Some beefy echos in the last two hours.

Isn't that a bit presumptuous? There has been barely any sunshine and mostly overcast on the East Coast as well today as well and that was one of the indicators MT mentioned in his forecast last night. There just hasn't been the heating and convection needed for the spark you seem to be predicting. As well, the last GFS run changed where the majority of insatiability would be and it indicates more that the West/North Midlands will pick up the brunt of it into NI for this evening. Plus, it was mentioned that the primary hours for anything building would be 1500 to 1700 and only Galway and the West Midlands seems to have gotten anything like the GFS predicted.

Your forecasts are helpful, but you seem a bit overboard at times wishing for thunder (Not that thats a bad thing).

darkman2

SexVicar wrote: »

Isn't that a bit presumptuous? There has been barely any sunshine and mostly overcast on the East Coast as well today as well and that was one of the indicators MT mentioned in his forecast last night. There just hasn't been the heating and convection needed for the spark you seem to be predicting. As well, the last GFS run changed where the majority of insatiability would be and it indicates more that the West/North Midlands will pick up the brunt of it into NI for this evening.

Your forecasts are helpful, but you seem a bit overboard at times wishing for thunder (Not that thats a bad thing).

Hi,

Not presumptuous at all IMO. Embedded thundersorms are just as likely. We don't need sunshine hitting the ground to spark thunderstorms - with respect to MT (great forecaster that he is) that is a myth. All that is needed is humidity, a cold front, negative CAPE values and convenient collison of wind direction - squall lines and there is a very good chance of storms. You are partly right in that the siuation now is more condusive for land based convection which means that the more land traversed the greater the potential but it is not all land convection which has to be taken into account aswell.


The latest GFS run is the same as the previous one 6 hours ago for the next 12hrs. Only minor alterations but nothing significant really.


Also I did'nt say there will be thunderstorms btw - just that there is a good chance in certain areas. That's all anyone can say.

Lumi

Actually. you were spot on darkman2. There's been a fairly impressive thunderstorm in Moycullen in the last hour

djhaxman

Chucking it down in a big way here in Castleblayney, still no light show though.

M.T. Cranium

Would agree there is a slight risk of a severe storm in central to eastern Ireland this evening. Factors are all rather marginal for severe weather but conducive for thunder and lightning (the counties now most likely to see further lightning would be generally east of a line from Lough Neagh to Athlone to Waterford, and if anything marginally severe develops I would say look for that around Laois, Carlow and Kildare.)

If this system had been a little more dynamic and forced clearing (and greater heating) in the warm sector then we might have been seeing a squall line developing, and certainly some factors at play are marginally conducive for that, for example there is a fairly well-defined wind shear aloft, the central low pressure continues to deepen, albeit rather moderately, and the front is now approaching an area with better lift. So anyway, I imagine we will get half a dozen or more reports of thunder out of this from scattered locations as far north as possibly Down or Louth, and there is probably about a ten per cent chance of a marginally severe cell developing in the area outlined or nearby (not sure what Irish criteria for severe storms are, I am used to gusts to 100 km/hr, frequent lightning, hail greater than 2 cm, or rainfall of 25 mm an hour, the latter being possible here even if nothing else develops). As for a tornado which I saw being discussed somewhere, this situation does not look very conducive but you can't rule out a weak rope-style tornado if one of these cells made it to the limits I just outlined.

Anyway, I am keeping an eye on the radar here until about 8 p.m. at least, and the lightning detection sites.

rd_milltown

darkman2 wrote: »

All that is needed is humidity, a cold front, negative CAPE values and convenient collison of wind direction - squall lines and there is a very good chance of storms.
.

Assume you meant positive CAPE?

Newbie here, moved to Dublin about 3 months ago but spent June out of Ireland with work and holiday and therefore missed the good weather !! One thing I've noticed - and today is a prime example - is how much more humid it is here compared to London. Dublin Airport was reporting 18c with a dewpoint of 17c earlier, very humid !

Richard

Sierra Oscar

Plenty of localised flooding here in North Tipp, is that the worst of it over?

Pangea

owenc wrote: »

Yes the bbc show big massive green spots coming over me so maybe some thunder storms tonight, but that rain on the radar dosen't look too heavy. Lets hope so it would get rid of the boring weather.

Im afraid this isnt confined to the midlands and east as the thread title suggests . Very heavy floods here in Donegal, and its very dark.
The BBC radar got it spot on , showing some of the heaviest downpours would be in the northwest.
This is the heaviest rain of the year so far.

owenc

Pangea wrote: »

Im afraid this isnt confined to the midlands and east as the thread title suggests . Very heavy floods here in Donegal, and its very dark.
The BBC radar got it spot on , showing some of the heaviest downpours would be in the northwest.
This is the heaviest rain of the year so far.

Yep same here and the heavy rain has started again its like torrential rain and it lasts ages, its a real pity theres no thunder infact i'm really surprised there is none!

Pangea

owenc wrote: »

Yep same here and the heavy rain has started again its like torrential rain and it lasts ages, its a real pity theres no thunder infact i'm really surprised there is none!

It is torrential rain here , its still bucketing down, my driveway is like a river. :eek:

owenc

Pangea wrote: »

It is torrential rain here , its still bucketing down, my driveway is like a river. :eek:

Same though its slowing down now, it'll be gone at about 11/ 11.30. Imagine the rivers in the morning, the last time this happened my river (and any other river in this area.) overflowed near me and filled all the fields up to the top (but it was only about four fields). EDIT: guess what! Them ones over in england are getting thunder and lightening after getting that weather, i can't believe that, first they get a heatwave and now they steal our thunderstorms!:mad:

jprboy

SexVicar wrote: »

As well, the last GFS run changed where the majority of insatiability would be and it indicates more that the West/North Midlands will pick up the brunt of it into NI for this evening.

Oooooerrrrrr, vicar ! Mojo detector ??!!

Pangea

Very stormy here now , when i look outside its hard to believe its july.

Cyclonic variable winds, becoming west to northwest, will reach force 6 or 7 overnight on all Irish coasts.
Issued at 23:00 on 10-Jul-2010

Winds picking up here over the last hour, WNW 30 - 40+km/h.