July 2010 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Posting this quite early, but no rush for entries ... the deadline as always is the end of the first day of the month (Thursday 1 July at 2359h) with a penalty applying to entries on the 2nd.

The first five questions are the same as in other months:

(1) mean temp deg C for the five stations (1961-90 avg is 15.0)

(2) max temp deg C for any met.ie station

(3) min temp deg C for any met.ie station

(4) average rainfall (% of normal) for all reporting stations

(5) average sunshine (% of normal) for all reporting stations

and the bonus

(6) How much rain (mms) will fall at Mullingar on the 15th, St Swithin's Day?

template (mean,max,min,rain,sun,mms)

Enter soon and often. :cool:

dasa29

mean 15c,max 27c,min 6c,rain 85%,sun 125%,mms 5mm.

pauldry

mean 14.9c,max 26.1c,min 5.2c,rain 125%,sun 110%,mms 7.3mm.

200motels

Mean 15.7C Max 29.8C Min 7.1C Rain 145% Sun 95% Mms 1mm

jd

Mean 15.2C Max 28.8C Min 6.1C Rain 105% Sun 115% Mms 0mm

talkabout

mean 16c,max 31c,min 4c,rain 90%,sun 115%,mms 2mm

JamBur

Mean 15.3C Max 28.2C Min 7.1C Rain 101% Sun 95% Mms 4mm

WolfeIRE

16c
29c
5.5c
95%
110%

thetonynator

Mean: 15.2, Max 25.5, Min 5.9, Rain 110%, Sun 105%, Mms 0.5

Deep Easterly

Another drought ridden month coming up with little in the way of any interesting weather. Pretty much like every month this year so far.

16.2c, 27.1c,4.3 49%,130,3.1

M.T. Cranium

16.5, 27.3, 4.8, 97%, 108%, nil

Sorry St Swithin

Note, yours truly on the road much of 30 June and 1 July, en route to holidays, not expecting to be totally absent from the internet, but may not be able to post the monthly table of your entries until around the 3rd or 4th.

Will have to save up for a trip to Ireland in some future year, not in the cards for 2010 sadly.

15.8, 27.3, 5, 88%, 109%, 0

Strasser

15.8,24.5,2.3,139%,90%,5

Lumi

mean 16.1, max 29.7, min 6.5, rain 65%, sun 122%, 2mms

nacho libre

mean 16.2.c, max 27.6c, min 5.3c, rain 90%, sun 125%, 10mm.

mickger844posts

15.5c, 28.7c, 6.1c,95%, 105%,0

SeaFields

17.1c, 25.5c, 7.4c, 75%, 110%, 0.0mm

kindredspirit

16.7°C, 29.1°C, 7.0°C, 95%, 100%, 6.0mm.

Su Campu

16.9,28.3,5.5,100,100,1.8

Rebelbrowser

mean 14.8c,max 27.2c,min 6.8c,rain 101%,sun 82%,mms 0mm.

John mac

14.3,27.2,4.1,120,110,1.2

Danno

(1) mean temp deg C for the five stations (1961-90 avg is 15.0) 15.7c

(2) max temp deg C for any met.ie station 24.6c

(3) min temp deg C for any met.ie station 7.9c

(4) average rainfall (% of normal) for all reporting stations 135%

(5) average sunshine (% of normal) for all reporting stations 85%

(6) How much rain (mms) will fall at Mullingar on the 15th, St Swithin's Day? 11.3mm

Joe Public

(15.3,25.9,6.9,120%,90%,3mm)

DOCARCH

mean 15.2c, max 26.9c, min 7.8c, rain 92%, sun 105%, mms 2.6mm.

Speak Now

15.4,24.4,6.2,110,98,0

Redsunset

mean 16,max 25,min 7,rain 130%,sun 125%, mms 15

nilhg

(15.6,24.9,7.8,105,101,2.5)

waterways

17.0, 27.7, 6.8, 145, 103, 18.3

Deep Easterly

Just having a gawk there at monthly mean sea level pressure stats for July for met station Claremorris. Since 1950, there has been a very slight linear fall in m.s.l.p for the month during the 59 year period up to 2009.

Chart showing monthly mean sea level pressure (HPa) for the station during the month of July for the period 1950 to 2009



As can be seen, the pressure values for July 2007/2008 & 2009 were much below average and standing outside the general norm.

In fact, looking at mean values for each 3 year period since 1950, July 07/08/09 had the lowest m.s.l.p value for July since 1950, reflecting just how unsettled the last 3 July's were!



The average pressure value of the last 3 Julys equated to 1009.67 HPa, which is almost 7mb below the 61-90 norm for the station!

Just to contrast, the highest 3 year average value for July at Claremorris was 1019.5mb, which covered the years 82/83/84.

Will July 2010 break the current run of below average pressure values?


We'll see!



Data Source: http://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?someone@somewhere

M.T. Cranium

Interesting stats there, DE, I thought the past three summers were a bit cyclonic. Well, I found an hour to get this table together, may the best man (or woman) win ... or perhaps it will be me instead.

Forecaster ........ Mean (C) ..... Max .... Min .... Rain% ... Sun% .... Mull15
____________________________________________________________

SeaFields ............... 17.1 ..... 25.5 ..... 7.4 ..... 075 ..... 110 ..... 00.0
waterways ............. 17.0 ..... 27.7 ..... 6.8 ..... 145 ..... 103 ..... 18.3
Su Campu .............. 16.9 ..... 28.3 ..... 5.5 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... 01.8
kindredspirit ........... 16.7 ..... 29.1 ..... 7.0 ..... 095 ..... 100 ..... 06.0
M.T. Cranium .......... 16.5 ..... 27.3 ..... 4.8 ..... 097 ..... 108 ..... 00.0
Deep Easterly ......... 16.2 ..... 27.1 ..... 4.3 ..... 049 ..... 130 ..... 03.1
nacho libre ............. 16.2 ..... 27.6 ..... 5.3 ..... 090 ..... 125 ..... 10.0
Fionagus ................ 16.1 ..... 29.7 ..... 6.5 ..... 065 ..... 122 ..... 02.0
WolfeIRE ................ 16.0 ..... 29.0 ..... 5.5 ..... 095 ..... 110 .....
talkabout ............... 16.0 ..... 31.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 090 ..... 115 ..... 02.0
redsunset .............. 16.0 ..... 25.0 ..... 7.0 ..... 130 ..... 125 ..... 15.0
hellboy99 ............... 15.8 ..... 27.3 ..... 5.0 ..... 088 ..... 109 ..... 00.0
Strasser ................ 15.8 ..... 24.5 ..... 2.3 ..... 139 ..... 090 ..... 05.0
200motels .............. 15.7 ..... 29.8 ..... 7.1 ..... 145 ..... 095 ..... 01.0

Con Sensus ............ 15.7 ..... 27.2 ..... 6.1 ..... 101 ..... 105 .... 02.5

Danno ................... 15.7 ..... 24.6 ..... 7.9 ..... 135 ..... 085 ..... 11.3
nilhg ..................... 15.6 ..... 24.9 ..... 7.8 ..... 105 ..... 101 ..... 02.5
mickger844posts ..... 15.5 ..... 28.7 ..... 6.1 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 00.0
Jerry Seinfeld ......... 15.4 ..... 24.4 ..... 6.2 ..... 110 ..... 098 ..... 00.0
JamBur .................. 15.3 ..... 28.2 ..... 7.1 ..... 101 ..... 095 ..... 04.0
Joe Public .............. 15.3 ..... 25.9 ..... 6.9 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 03.0
jd ......................... 15.2 ..... 28.8 ..... 6.1 ..... 105 ..... 115 ..... 00.0
thetonynator .......... 15.2 ..... 25.5 ..... 5.9 ..... 110 ..... 105 ..... 00.5
DOCARCH ............... 15.2 ..... 26.9 ..... 7.8 ..... 092 ..... 105 ..... 02.6
Dasa29 .................. 15.0 ..... 27.0 ..... 6.0 ..... 085 ..... 125 ..... 05.0
pauldry .................. 14.9 ..... 26.1 ..... 5.2 ..... 125 ..... 110 ..... 07.3
Rebelbrowser .......... 14.8 ..... 27.2 ..... 6.8 ..... 101 ..... 082 ..... 00.0
John mac ............... 14.3 ..... 27.2 ..... 4.1 ..... 120 ..... 110 ..... 01.2

Looks like the group consensus is just slightly sunnier, warmer than average by fractions, with average rainfall. There's quite a range for rainfall on the 15th, about one third forecast no rain, three have more than 10 mms. WolfeIRE, you can add a prediction for that if you wish, by the 4th (and welcome back) ... welcome to JamBur on a first effort here, and thanks everyone for your continual appearances.

WolfeIRE

Thanks MT. Sorry for missing that last question. Thanks for putting table together too. Appreciate it.

My prediction is a big fat '0' for St Swithin's Day. Previous 2 have been washouts so third time lucky.

dubes

I think its going to rain tomoro!

dubes

My forecast is: 15.7 ..... 27.2 ..... 6.1 ..... 101 ..... 105 .... 02.5

M.T. Cranium

Con Sensus, not the worst guy to follow in this bunch.

Okay, after the first seven days, trends are:

mean temp 15.5 C

rainfall 110% (varies considerably so far, watch for this to soar)

sunshine 112% (about to take a hit)

Monthly rainfall will be almost guaranteed to exceed 100% after two days of steady and at times heavy rainfall.

Deep Easterly

Met eireann data not updated for yesterday but up to the 9th, Irish Mean Temperature July on 15.4c, which is just under a degree above normal for the period.


Chart graphing mean daily max temp for July for Pheonix Park & Birr (based the 61-90 period) and Galway (based on 64-95 period)



Statistically speaking, the warmest day of the year occurs on the 14th July in Galway, while the both Birr and Dublin will have there warmest day on the 29th! Averaged out between east. middle and west, Ireland warmest days of the year tend to happen between the 20th and 25th of July!

All based on stats of course, that does not mean the reality will be the same!



Daily I.M.T maxima for the year 2010 up to the 9th July:



from winter to summer....




Data source: Met Eireann

thetonynator

I think the mercy rule will have to be brought in for rainfall!!!

Deep Easterly

Not much happened across the country yesterday weatherwise it seems:



:cool:

Joe Public

And nothing at all happened on Saturday. I'm interested to know how much rain fell at the various stations on Saturday but no "yesterday's weather" appeared on met.ie for Sat or Sun.

Deep Easterly

Joe Public wrote: »

And nothing at all happened on Saturday. I'm interested to know how much rain fell at the various stations on Saturday but no "yesterday's weather" appeared on met.ie for Sat or Sun.

Ogimet give's an idea but will differ to met eireann's data due to the 'UTC' time use (I've never really understood the point of UTC).

M.T. Cranium

Re mercy rule on rainfall -- perhaps if I take every forecast as being mms instead of percentage, we'll get some scores.

It would be an injustice if it didn't rain in Mullingar on the 15th, I suppose. Quite odd how the weather changed right on the calendar change.

pauldry

Strange indeed MT - its as if the weather knew "oh its July in Ireland - turn on the taps" Still lets hope for an improvement in the final third.

Good idea on the rain. Think I need a mercy rule on all my predictions. Is this possible?

Joe Public

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Ogimet give's an idea but will differ to met eireann's data due to the 'UTC' time use (I've never really understood the point of UTC).

Thanks DE, I see the NW got the most rain on Saturday - well nearly Saturday.

Deep Easterly

Met data updated now (thank Christ) so latest mean figure on 15.2c.

Roughly put together chart graphing mean trend for the month up to the 12th, with values for July 2009 thrown in for comparison:



basically following a similar pattern to July last year so far.


Stats C/O Met Eireann

pauldry

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Met data updated now (thank Christ) so latest mean figure on 15.2c.

Roughly put together chart graphing mean trend for the month up to the 12th, with values for July 2009 thrown in for comparison:



basically following a similar pattern to July last year so far.


Stats C/O Met Eireann

Jayziz !! :eek: So its actually a worse July temperature wise than last year.
Still at least its not as wet :rolleyes::o:(

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

Jayziz !! :eek: So its actually a worse July temperature wise than last year.
Still at least its not as wet :rolleyes::o:(

yet . . . up to 60mm forecast today and tomorrow . . .:(:mad::mad::mad:

pauldry

Can I change my rainfall prediction to 5000% of normal:p

M.T. Cranium

After 14 days, the elements have taken quite a turn ...

rainfall now at 245% of normal

sunshine has fallen to 82% of normal

IMT is sitting at 15.3 C

some places had 5-6 times the normal rainfall in the past seven days (including Claremorris).

Today won't change much of the above.

So, the main questions now seem to be, how much more rain will fall, since normal to the end of the month will leave us at about 170% (even none will leave things at 120%), and, will sunshine recover or is it going to settle in at this 75-85 per cent outcome? Temperatures seem rather steady and there are few indications of anything vastly different before month's end.

pauldry

certainly i can say that the area around ballymote in Sligo has seen 50mm of rain in the last 2 days. We have had lots here in Sligo town (29mm in the 2 days so far) but there its been bucketing every time I drive through and its flooded.

Temperatures should be around the same as they are at present for rest of month.

Sunshine will prob improve slightly more especially in the East and South.

Is it raining much in Mullingar today for the Swithins day rain massacre?

M.T. Cranium

I'm sure they've had 5 or more mms already and may get a pile more before midnight. :eek:

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm sure they've had 5 or more mms already and may get a pile more before midnight. :eek:

I'm heading to Mullingar to put an umbrella over the weather station:D

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

After 14 days, the elements have taken quite a turn ...

rainfall now at 245% of normal

sunshine has fallen to 82% of normal

IMT is sitting at 15.3 C

some places had 5-6 times the normal rainfall in the past seven days (including Claremorris).

Today won't change much of the above.

So, the main questions now seem to be, how much more rain will fall, since normal to the end of the month will leave us at about 170% (even none will leave things at 120%), and, will sunshine recover or is it going to settle in at this 75-85 per cent outcome? Temperatures seem rather steady and there are few indications of anything vastly different before month's end.

Even if Claremorris does not record any more rain til month's end, it will still have gained 200% of its normal rainfall; but as you say, as a countrywide whole, finishing % values likely to be over 150%.