Labour the most popular party

Lockstep

Labour most popular party in opinion poll

hursday, 10 June 2010 21:02

Labour has become the most popular political party in the country for the first time ever, according to an opinion poll in tomorrow's Irish Times.

The Ipsos MRBI poll for tomorrow's Irish Times also shows a slump in backing for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and for their leaders.

The poll, taken on Tuesday and yesterday, doesn't fully reflect the impact of the banking reports, but shows a five point slump in Fianna Fáil support since January, leaving that party on just 17%.
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But Fine Gael are down as well, dropping four points to 28%, and falling behind Labour for the first time ever.

That party is up eight points to 32%; the Greens are unchanged at 3%, Sinn Féin gain one to 9%, and Independents are unchanged at 11%.

Eamon Gilmore also has the highest satisfaction rating of 46%, while satisfaction with Brian Cowen is down 8% to 18%, while Enda Kenny drops 7% to 24%.

Satisfaction with the Government is also down since January, by 7% to 12%, while 83% say they're dissatisfied.

Labour have gone over the 30% threshold.

I doubt it's that high but Labour's support seems to be on the up.

Sergeant

FF 17-5

FG 28-4

LAB 32+8

GREEN 3,

SF 9+1

OTH 11


Perhaps two motions of no confidence on Tuesday? Shocking that FG can drop 4 points during an unprecedented financial crisis.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0610/politics.html

whatawaster

Fine Gael need to get rid of Enda Kenny quickly, or they could throw away the next election.

eoinbn

Surprisingly big changes. Maybe it has something to do with the talk about cutting the old age pension? OAP are FF's last stronghold so any talk of cutting it would probably have a very negative effect and Labour would be a less likely to cut it than an FG lead government.
Also the latest HSE lead screw-up was probably a factor given that it was in peoples minds during this poll.

Lockstep

I wonder what the result is now, given the banking reports.

I'd say FF have a natural voting base of ~20%

Breezer

kickoutthejams wrote: »

I wonder what the result is now, given the banking reports.

There was nothing in them we didn't know already, but yes, it would be interesting to see.

I'm going to take this with a pinch of salt until such time as a trend develops. Great news for Labour. Very worrying news for the country though, as far as I'm concerned.

Absurdum

It probably says more about FG than it does about Labour tbh.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

dlofnep

Was just about to post this. Interesting to see FG's downward trend continue. So long as FF are not on top, it's something positive. I wonder if this will be reflected however when the time comes to vote? Irish voters are a little less eager to change things when it comes down to it. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see FF win another election, but hopefully - they won't.

whatawaster

Richard Bruton making it plain on Prime Time that he has no confidence in Enda Kenny

Mr.Micro

People IMO see Kenny as inert and lacks any deal of charisma. It is indeed incredible that a party like FG can lose points in times like these with the disasterous FF/GP amalgam, if this poll is correct. It has to be down to Kenny, old hat out of date and not up to the fight. FG will do nothing and that is not missed on the voters who might think that is what a FG Government would do to get the country out of this mess.

irishh_bob

this poll is even worse news for fine gael than it is for fianna fail IMO , fianna fail have killed the country and thier leader has been found with his finger prints all over the corpse , thier numbers add up , whats fine gaels excuse though

hmmm

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

32% of the population think there is a magic pot of money available to bail us out.

I agree with the poster who said this was more about FG than anyone else.

Sizzler

Might as well be voting for SIPTU & ICTU and letting Jack O'Connor and Begg bend you over and take you up the ass for the next 4 years, eh no thanks.

irishh_bob

Sizzler wrote: »

Might as well be voting for SIPTU & ICTU and letting Jack O'Connor and Begg bend you over and take you up the ass for the next 4 years, eh no thanks.

if fine gaels leader wasnt kryptonite to so many swing voters , thier would be no danger of this happening , if labour are capable of reaching 30% , fine gael should be capable of reaching 50%

thetonynator

At the end of the day though, it's only an opinion poll, there is no sign of an election or even the bye elections at the moment.

yoshytoshy

Delighted to have read about this ,finally feathers are getting russled in politics here.
People are thinking out of the box ,hopefully we'll come up with a good government when the time comes.:)

peasant

I wouldn't think that this figure means that all these people are supporting Labour policies ...it's about personality.

Cowen has been found out as an incompetent mumbler and bungler, Kenny is ..well, Kenny ...only Gilmore seems capable of stringing together more than two coherent sentences while looking as if he actually means what he's saying.

These days that is enough to get you voted most popular kid on the block, sadly.

evercloserunion

peasant wrote: »

I wouldn't think that this figure means that all these people are supporting Labour policies ...it's about personality.

As far as I know, Gilmore's approval rating, though high, did not increase nearly as much as Labour's popularity did. Therefore I do think it's more about policies or at least ideology than personality.

Anyway this is a fantastic result for Labour and I for one hope it holds up. This is their biggest increase but AFAIK it is the third consecutive poll giving Labour a substantial increase so it's not a rogue. I would expect Labour to lose some of this support in the future, but I also think they have made a lot of sustainable gains recently.

jimmycrackcorm

Well done to Labour - enjoy it until you have to spell out how to get rid of the annual €20billion deficit borrowings.

Ah but wait - they just have to find 20 billionaires each year to take the money off - sure aren't there loads of billionaire developers. That's my guess anyway as there isn't a single proposal on www.labour.ie. So what are the 30% plus people supporting Labour for unless it is thanks to Cowens popularity transfer votes.

mike65

Richard Bruton will be at least as happy as Eamon Gilmore methinks. The Mayo bank manager has to go.

Taxipete29

Sizzler wrote: »

Might as well be voting for SIPTU & ICTU and letting Jack O'Connor and Begg bend you over and take you up the ass for the next 4 years, eh no thanks.

Like they have for the previous 12. Can anyone here say Benchmarking

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Well done to Labour - enjoy it until you have to spell out how to get rid of the annual €20billion deficit borrowings.

Ah but wait - they just have to find 20 billionaires each year to take the money off - sure aren't there loads of billionaire developers. That's my guess anyway as there isn't a single proposal on www.labour.ie. So what are the 30% plus people supporting Labour for unless it is thanks to Cowens popularity transfer votes.

There are proposals there. Seek and ye shall find.

While I am conscious of the fact that this is merely an opinion poll this is a great result for Labour.

FF/FG FG/FF. Its been said for years that they are practically the same. Maybe people are starting to listen. Labour are a real alternative.

Gilmore for Taoiseach

hotmail.com

FG need to get rid of Kenny. However, a leadership struggle may only lead to a FG bloodbath.

FF have to get ready for a massive drubbing at the next election, where they could lose half their seats. Cowen is clearly their biggest liability and he will go down in history as the most unpopular leader in Irish history.

Fantastic result for Labour - but there's certainly going to be a greater scutiny of their policies. The party is also made up of older people and they still get most of their support from urban areas. Labour does have a chance to breakthrough in Dublin with this poll.

Eliot Rosewater

Taxipete29 wrote: »

Like they have for the previous 12. Can anyone here say Benchmarking

So basically, we've been repeatedly screwed over by the trade unions during Fianna Fáil's tenure; thus, it is okay if Labour continue to support this screwing over in the next term of government?

Labour don't offer an alternative. They're quite happy maintaining the status quo vis-à-vis the current high spending. The only difference they'll make is to introduce higher taxes, and all the ugliness that that entails.

nesf

*twitches*

Mr.Micro

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

So basically, we've been repeatedly screwed over by the trade unions during Fianna Fáil's tenure; thus, it is okay if Labour continue to support this screwing over in the next term of government.

Labour don't offer an alternative. They're quite happy maintaining the status quo vis-à-vis the current high spending. The only difference they'll make is to introduce higher taxes, and all the ugliness that that entails.

The Labour Government in the UK elected in 1997 had the same credentials then and stayed in power fro nearly 13 years. So the Labour Party here could do the same. They have got to be better than the FF disaster that ruined our country?

mike65

Labour won't get an overall majority here never mind stay in power for 3 terms.

Eliot Rosewater

Mr.Micro wrote: »

The Labour Government in the UK elected in 1997 had the same credentials then and stayed in power fro nearly 13 years. So the Labour Party here could do the same. They have got to be better than the FF disaster that ruined our country?

I'm not so sure Mr.Micro. I'm judging the situation based on the current Labour policies on offer, not what they did back in 1994 or 1981, or what the British Labour Party have done. The current spending regime is both inappropriate and unsustainable, in my opinion, and the Labour party seem to be pursuing the goal of not affecting any change in that regard. The only recourse available to them must be higher taxes, and that can only lead to further problems.

Obviously I'm biased, being a supporter of economic liberalism, but I still can't see the figures adding up.

Welease

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0610/politics.html

Tomorrow Irish Times poll..

"
Labour has become the most popular political party in the country for the first time ever, according to an opinion poll in tomorrow's Irish Times.
The Ipsos MRBI poll for tomorrow's Irish Times also shows a slump in backing for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and for their leaders.
The poll, taken on Tuesday and yesterday, doesn't fully reflect the impact of the banking reports, but shows a five-point slump in Fianna Fáil support since January, leaving that party on just 17%.
Advertisement

But Fine Gael are down as well, dropping four points to 28%.
That party is up eight points to 32%; the Greens are unchanged at 3%, Sinn Féin gain one to 9%, and Independents are unchanged at 11%.
Eamon Gilmore also has the highest satisfaction rating of 46%, while satisfaction with Brian Cowen is down 8% to 18%, while Enda Kenny drops 7% to 24%.
Satisfaction with the Government is also down since January, by 7% to 12%, while 83% say they're dissatisfied.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen has insisted that the Government will run for its full term despite a new opinion poll showing a dramatic drop in Fianna Fáil support
Speaking tonight on RTE's Prime Time programme, Mr Cowen said he would not walk away from Government and would make what he called the tough decisions on the economy.
He said people would be able to choose a new government once the current one had run its term."


God help us.. If nothing else, my rants this evening about the idiot Irish voters have been vindicated beyond my wildest beliefs

Taxipete29

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

So basically, we've been repeatedly screwed over by the trade unions during Fianna Fáil's tenure; thus, it is okay if Labour continue to support this screwing over in the next term of government?

Labour don't offer an alternative. They're quite happy maintaining the status quo vis-à-vis the current high spending. The only difference they'll make is to introduce higher taxes, and all the ugliness that that entails.

I never said it would be ok and they wont support continuing to screw the country.

You dont like Labour, you will never vote for them so I wont waste my energy trying to change your mind. There are plenty of voters willing to listen and at last the message is starting to get through

rovert

Your preference is?

Sand

Not really surprising - Labour are still in 2004 electoral mode where reality is ignored, everyone gets payrises, spending is increased and so on. Irish people arent too fond of reality, and they liked Bertie a lot, so they love Gilmore. Might as well put Jack O Connor and David Begg as Taoiseach and Tanaiste though.

Whatever is left of the 700,000 taxpayers in this country that arent in the public sector will be saddled and ridden into the ground to pay for the entitlements of the other 3.8 million.

Taxipete29

mike65 wrote: »

Labour won't get an overall majority here never mind stay in power for 3 terms.

No but they could end up as the largest party. Then the only way top keep them out of power would be for FF and FG to hook up. These scenarios are a long way from this opinion poll, but they are not as unlikely as they once seemed

Welease

Peppa Pig

edellc

so if you dont like Labour who do you propose we have in power surly not FF again (they should never have been voted in last time either) and if it does happen again the last glimmer of hope i had in the irish people will well and truly be extinguished

Taxipete29

Sand wrote: »

Not really surprising - Labour are still in 2004 electoral mode where reality is ignored, everyone gets payrises, spending is increased and so on. Irish people arent too fond of reality, and they liked Bertie a lot, so they love Gilmore. Might as well put Jack O Connor and David Begg as Taoiseach and Tanaiste though.

Whatever is left of the 700,000 taxpayers in this country that arent in the public sector will be saddled and ridden into the ground to pay for the entitlements of the other 3.8 million.

Rubbish. What payrises?? What spending increases??

O'Conner and Begg were fully immeresed in the trough with Bertie and Co during the better times. They have come crawling back to their roots and they are not getting the reception they would like. Labour are not beholding to the Unions the way many on here feel they are.

dlofnep

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Well done to Labour - enjoy it until you have to spell out how to get rid of the annual €20billion deficit borrowings.

Ah but wait - they just have to find 20 billionaires each year to take the money off - sure aren't there loads of billionaire developers. That's my guess anyway as there isn't a single proposal on www.labour.ie. So what are the 30% plus people supporting Labour for unless it is thanks to Cowens popularity transfer votes.

http://www.labour.ie/download/pdf/budgetpowerpoint.pdf

dlofnep

Sand wrote: »

Not really surprising - Labour are still in 2004 electoral mode where reality is ignored, everyone gets payrises, spending is increased and so on.

What pay-rises are these?

Sand

@taxipete

Rubbish. What payrises?? What spending increases??

It is Labour policy to increase the wages of the public sector, undoing the work already done to try control the deficit.

O'Conner and Begg were fully immeresed in the trough with Bertie and Co during the better times. They have come crawling back to their roots and they are not getting the reception they would like. Labour are not beholding to the Unions the way many on here feel they are.

Really? It is Labour policy to increase the wages of the public sector, undoing the work already done to try control the deficit.

Welease

edellc wrote: »

so if you dont like Labour who do you propose we have in power surly not FF again (they should never have been voted in last time either) and if it does happen again the last glimmer of hope i had in the irish people will well and truly be extinguished

Really?, your last gliimer of hope lies with a party that will reverse the pay cuts of the public sector who's current pay and pension benefits are crippling this country?

How much more should we get in debt for our PS.. Is the pension defecit of 108 billion not big enough for you?
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/labour-motion-calls-for-reversal-of-public-sector-pay-cuts-454205.html

dlofnep

Sand wrote: »

@taxipete


It is Labour policy to increase the wages of the public sector, undoing the work already done to try control the deficit.

I don't see any mention of pay-rises in that article.

Sand

@dlofnep

I don't see any mention of pay-rises in that article.

Is that all you have got in response? Thats it? Waste your own time in denial if you want.

Eliot Rosewater

dlofnep wrote: »

I don't see any mention of pay-rises in that article.

The Labour party wants to reverse the public sector pay cuts. This amounts to a pay-rise: their goal is that public sector pay will be higher in their term than it is now. Saying this isn't a pay rise is just playing with words, in my opinion.

edellc

there is too big a gap between the rich and the poor and too many rich people who dont pay tax we need to re-evaluate the whole system and how it works and stop letting the idiots in power slap their wealthy mates on the back and let them get away with paying nothing
we also need to stop paying huge salaries to the people in power, get rid of the senned and stop the county councillors claiming ridiculous expenses only then do i think do we have a right to ask the poorest of this county to take a cut until then we have no right
yes the social welfare bill is crazy for such a small county but why is it always the poorest of society that bails out the richest it is disgusting and needs to stop

edellc

oh and you never answered the question WHO DO YOU PROPOSE BE IN POWER IF NOT LABOUR/FG??

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Welease

edellc wrote: »

there is too big a gap between the rich and the poor and too many rich people who dont pay tax we need to re-evaluate the whole system and how it works and stop letting the idiots in power slap their wealthy mates on the back and let them get away with paying nothing
we also need to stop paying huge salaries to the people in power, get rid of the senned and stop the county councillors claiming ridiculous expenses only then do i think do we have a right to ask the poorest of this county to take a cut until then we have no right
yes the social welfare bill is crazy for such a small county but why is it always the poorest of society that bails out the richest it is disgusting and needs to stop

You do realise 50% of the lowest paid in this country don't pay any tax, and it's actually the highest paid who bankroll this country?

Taxipete29

Sand wrote: »

@taxipete


It is Labour policy to increase the wages of the public sector, undoing the work already done to try control the deficit.



Really? It is Labour policy to increase the wages of the public sector, undoing the work already done to try control the deficit.

A motion at conference does not a policy make.

Where have you heard Gilmore calling for the restoration of PS wages??

When has Joan Burton said that restoration of PS pay would be the first priority for a Labour Govt??

The answer is you havent. If it was policy the press would be hounding them on it. They arent and there is plenty of anti-Labour media out there.

If you knew how these motions were carried out you would realise how little it actually means that this was carried and why its not being pushed as official policy.

edellc

AND?

the rich get away with too much

again you havent answered the question

edellc

edellc wrote: »

oh and you never answered the question WHO DO YOU PROPOSE BE IN POWER IF NOT LABOUR/FG??

Didn't he say peppa pig..cowen i presume..

Quazzie

I think it's more of a case of them being the least least popular Party in Ireland which means they're the most popular.