Range Resources (RRL.L) tipped by RHPS

Thargor

Lets see what we're like by Friday once things settle down and we're trading on 3 exchanges, loving the RMP action though!

neil.p.b

Thargor wrote: »

Lets see what we're like by Friday once things settle down and we're trading on 3 exchanges, loving the RMP action though!

We're already on three exchanges?

Thargor

I thought we were on the pink sheets but now we're moving to a 'properly' traded exchange tomorrow? OTCQX or whatever? Ive been on my phone away from my pc for a week so maybe I took it up wrong...

neil.p.b

Thargor wrote: »

I thought we were on the pink sheets but now we're moving to a 'properly' traded exchange tomorrow? OTCQX or whatever? Ive been on my phone away from my pc for a week so maybe I took it up wrong...

We've been on pink sheets for ages - OTC. We're moving OTCQX which is the higher level and will allow larger institutions to buy in but i didn't think it was happening for a few weeks. I wasn't on RUM over the weekend so i might have missed something.

Some nice price movement over the last few days, hopefully the ASX wall be gone tonight - need to break that 13.75p resistance in the next few days. Little surprised HRN doesn't have bigger volume given RMPs. Will be making my RMP->HRN switch in the next couple of days, hoping for 30p on RMP and HRN not to move too much.

Thargor

JR said it was tomorrow anyway but his deadlines aren't worth much these days. The stock mailer is going out tomorrow aswell but I dont think an email blast is going to live up to the expectations on RUM

You're definitely going with HRN then? I was thinking about it before my RMP started motoring but now I'm too scared to wait the 3 days for the money to clear this close to news. Do you have any MES?

neil.p.b

Yeah i think so, RMP could well continue to outperform HRN short term as its more liquid and a more popular PI stock but i'd most likely be in until take-over so short term movements won't bother me. RMP are trading at almost a 200% premium to HRN at the minute so it doesn't make sense not to given my strategy. Why do you have do wait three days?

I've a few MES, thinking about using some of the RMP funds to buy more but i still have a niggling doubt in the back of my mind about the deal not being finalised so unsure what to do.

Thargor

It takes 3 days with National Irish Bank if you sell through their software for the money to clear again, as in the minute you sell and it hits your limit it sells at that price but the money doesn't appear in your available balance for 3 days, absolute pain in the hole. You can do it instantly over the phone but it costs more. They're a terrible broker, I used to recommend them to people but never again, I used to love them because everything was free and that was perfect for me because all I do is buy and hold, now they keep piling on the charges, 40 quid a year just for the account and all their fees have gone up aswell.

Id be long gone if it wasn't such a critical time for practically every share in my portfolio but apparently its a serious chore moving shares to another broker, as in 100 quid a share and a couple of weeks in limbo.

I might put some in HRN now though, I was saving it for more GKP but it looks like GKP have settled in for another long wait again so I might wait and see if that goes lower.

neil.p.b

Its the same with my broker (TDW) with regards to withdrawing cash but i can use the funds to buy more stock within the 3 day settlement. I think it cost me 25euro to transfer my account to them from AIB but it took about a month, as you said not ideal in such a critical time.

I'm keeping my eye on GKP, wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 280.

crapmanjoe

neil.p.b wrote: »

We've been on pink sheets for ages - OTC. We're moving OTCQX which is the higher level and will allow larger institutions to buy in but i didn't think it was happening for a few weeks. I wasn't on RUM over the weekend so i might have missed something.

Some nice price movement over the last few days, hopefully the ASX wall be gone tonight - need to break that 13.75p resistance in the next few days. Little surprised HRN doesn't have bigger volume given RMPs. Will be making my RMP->HRN switch in the next couple of days, hoping for 30p on RMP and HRN not to move too much.

Im seeing them quoted on OTCQB but no activity or anything showing up.

Thargor

Well I'll be liquidating my AMC and a couple of other small non-performers if GKP gets to 280, would appreciate it if you'd post your TA thoughts in the GKP thread before you do anything please, thanks Neil!

Man From Delmonte

After originally buying in at the 17.75p level, I've slowly managed to average down to 13.5p
Its great to see this on the up for the last few months and I hope it will be onwards and upwards from here. Its hard to know what price to sell out and take profits if that does come to pass but I guess that's a good decision to have to make.

neil.p.b

Thargor wrote: »

Well I'll be liquidating my AMC and a couple of other small non-performers if GKP gets to 280, would appreciate it if you'd post your TA thoughts in the GKP thread before you do anything please, thanks Neil!

Will do, i had meant to post a chart for you when it hit 465 as there was bearish divergence on a couple of the indicators but i just never got around to it. I'll post before buying in. Small support at 330 and 320, if broken next stop would be 280 imo.

GL

neil.p.b

OTCQX upgrade

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=20120306070000PEAD4&fe=1

Thargor

Another good RNS, another kicking for the SP, not our fault this time though.

neil.p.b

Blood bath everywhere. Managed to close above 12 so current uptrend still in tact. Thankfully my HRN have given my portfolio a glimmer of green in a see of red today.

Grecco

Just in from work, looks like a bit of a slaughter went on,
But HRN, oh you beauty up another 6% today. At this rate we could see $2 before TD :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

neil.p.b

I still can't believe their market cap given RMPs. Volume is up considerably as well.

Be sure to remember about the $1.50 warrants that must be exercised if the share price is over $2 for 30 days. The fact the price hasn't been pumped up to this at this stage of the drill if anything gives me confidence.

Obviously HRN will want those warrants exercised to bring in cash. Considering what would happen to the share price if Shabeel was a duster it would be near impossible to pump it over $2 for 30 straight days after. If the current drill hadn't have been looking good it would only have been in the companies best interest to have those warrants exercised now.

All looking good imo.

alanceltic

Neil,

Mind if i ask which broker you used for buying the horn shares? Broker I use will only allow phone instruction and cant link to my online account!!!

I was looking very closely at this over a month ago and can not believe the potential value in horn compared to the others. The recent news has further de-risked the play so the risk/reward numbers have changed significantly but this hasnt "as yet" washed through to the sp on horn.

I am happy to share the workings but I have revised my calcs as follows;

The risked and unrisked worth of the 2 drills in puntland as follows (all STG£)
Risked-actual worth per share on a risked valuation
UnRisked-actual worth per share on an unrisked valuation
Current SP - in STG£
x - multiplier of the SP on a risked basis of the worth of both drills and same again on an unrisked valuation (ie assuming full value)

..............Risked.............Unrisked..........Current SP............x(Risked)..............x(UnRisked)
RRL...........0.03..................0.72.............13.25....................n/a.....................4.46
RMP..........0.37..................7.84...............0.33...................0.14...................22.76
HRN..........2.82.................58.95...............0.64...................3.35...................90.04
AOI..........0.94.................19.56...............1.39....................n/a....................13.06

Just bear in mind this is the nett worth of both puntland drills only so the multipliers for RRL & AOI will be skewed due to other assets included in their SP.

As you can see RMP i have calculated at an unrisked valuation of 0.37 which is very close to the current SP (very little upside), compare to horn and horn should be valued at over 3 times the current SP!!!!!!!!! On an unrisked valuation HRN has amazing potential.

It is also worth considering that this same analysis puts a core valuation of 0.3p per share for RRL so no surprise to see range at the current level it is.

The Pontiac

alanceltic wrote: »

Neil,

Mind if i ask which broker you used for buying the horn shares? Broker I use will only allow phone instruction and cant link to my online account!!!

You can buy Canadian stocks on Td Direct Investing (formally Td Waterhouse). http://www.tddirectinvesting.ie/

I still can't believe RMP has risen so much, yet Horn has barley moved.

Grecco

Horn is trotting along nicely, up 9% now.
I think RMP has benefited massively from Gulf Keystone moneys and there's an Air of Pumping going on. The Boom Boom men have arrived which is a sure sign.
Definitively wouldn't recommend buying RMP at 35p+ levels as there's nothing there to support the price yet. Range, HRN or AOI are better value

neil.p.b

Hi Alan,

I'm with TD as linked above.

The only explanation for lack in movement in HRN is down to the original placing holders selling out as it looks like they will have warrants to convert soon, once that finishes it will fly. RMP is also a lot more popular PI stock so it will tend to jump and spike quicker.

Fully diluted RMPs market cap is almost the same HRNs now, yet HRN has 3x the exposure to Puntland. HRN are already fully funded for the current drilling program, but will also get $65m when the warrants are exercised. Cash won't be a problem for them, but RMP will probably have to raise a small amount again if any drills come in for testing costs, though dilution will be minimal due to its likely share price at the time.

Once i'd looked at the figures it was always just a question of when to switch between the two, i thought i had done well selling RMP at .27 for HRN at 1.03 lol!

The Pontiac

I bought HRN last night. First batch $1. Second Batch $1.01. Was watching it for a few nights and it kept bouncing off $1 last night, so figured this was the bottom for now.

My intention was to trade it, sell it off at $1.15, but now I'm not sure. I really like the drill prospects here, but not so much the location. But even if the drill was a success with 300mmbbls recoverable, then that would be 180 million barrels net to Horn. Even if you priced a barrel at $3 in the ground (for Punland?) that's over $500m asset value. Could be well over 300 million barrels too, but early days in the drill.

So do I wait for my $1.15 or wait for results? Decisions, decisions.

alanceltic

Thanks for that, TDW looks fine (apart from the hefty fx fees but they are all robbing ba$tard$ on this angle lol). When i initially looked at this it was $0.90 and i was too lazy to open an account which i could trade it on. Its gonna take 1-2 weeks to get the paperwork for TDW to open my account and the goons at the brokers I use are useless insisting on a new "phone" application form being approved so i can trade it in an offline account even though I have an online account!!!! I just hope the sp holds back until then but to be honest I would be happy with anything sub 1.30 or there abouts. I really should have gone with my gut weeks ago.

I agree neil RMP has money chasing a quick buck, it could be very volatile over the coming weeks, people seem to be benchmarking it completely against RRL which is crazy and justifying what a strike is worth on a RMP Vs RRL basis...... totally fcuked up when the benchmark for RMP should be HRN. Facts are either one is undervalued or one is overvalued, you tell me but probably a bit from column 1 and a lot from column 2 lol

Ollie, i will give you your $1.15 in 2 weeks.......:) just need this paperwork sorted out.

Funny thing is both RMP and HRN have 1 thing in common, both are worth jack shtt if either well is not commercial.

neil.p.b

If you live in/close to Dublin and don't want to wait you could pop into goodbodies and open an account almost immediately. They're expensive but i had to do it earlier this year to buy into USOP and did not want to take the chance waiting on my TDW account being opened, once i had my TD account a few weeks later i just transferred them over and closed my goodbody account.

The Pontiac

alanceltic wrote: »

Ollie, i will give you your $1.15 in 2 weeks.......:) just need this paperwork sorted out.

lol. You wish. Looking bullish atm.

Td Waterhouse are robbers on FX alright. If your account has more than €5k in it, there's no annual fees. Trades costs €15, which I think is cheaper than a lot of Irish brokers (AIB online etc.) You can trade on the following markets:

London
New York
Toronto
Australia
Brussels
Paris
Frankfurt
Hong Kong
Milan
Dublin
Amsterdam
Singapore
Madrid

So worth the hassle of getting an account setup.

Grecco

alanceltic wrote: »

Funny thing is both RMP and HRN have 1 thing in common, both are worth jack shtt if either well is not commercial.

Not true, by the time TD is reached Horn will have forced the warrants to be exercised so if the first well is a duster then Red emperor will be bust, Range will opt out of the second Puntland drill and Horn will now have 100% of Puntland. :rolleyes: hmm I wonder, imagine that

neil.p.b wrote: »

The only explanation for lack in movement in HRN is down to the original placing holders selling out as it looks like they will have warrants to convert soon, once that finishes it will fly.

I thought you would need to hold the shares to exercise the warrants??? and in that case why would you then exercise a warrant to buy a share for $1.50 when it can be bought on the open market for $1.10

I put the slower movement down to lack of liquidity and that its not on AIM being pumped and dumped like Red emperor
Then again a 21% rise in the last 8 days isn't enough for those Boom Boom boys

<Ollie> wrote: »

Td Waterhouse are robbers on FX alright.

All operators here are robbers, try FXCM -- trade any market any currency with no FX charge.
And just as easy to open an account, if not easier

neil.p.b

Grecco wrote: »

I thought you would need to hold the shares to exercise the warrants??? and in that case why would you then exercise a warrant to buy a share for $1.50 when it can be bought on the open market for $1.10

No, completely separate. They were just included in the initial placing deal.

The $1.50 warrants are exercised when the share price is over $2 for 30 consecutive days. The warrant holders HAVE TO exercise them, there is no choice in the matter.

Grecco

neil.p.b wrote: »

No, completely separate. They were just included in the initial placing deal.

Would have like to have been there for that
Out of interest how would you become aware of any initial placing for a company like that?

The Pontiac

Grecco wrote: »

All operators here are robbers, try FXCM -- trade any market any currency with no FX charge.
And just as easy to open an account, if not easier

Cheers Grecco, will check it out.

neil.p.b

Grecco wrote: »

Would have like to have been there for that
Out of interest how would you become aware of any initial placing for a company like that?

Most placings (especially when the company is already up and running) are done through the companies broker. Range and Red Emperor for example go to OPL who then sell stock on behalf of the company to their clients, so in that case it'd be a matter of becoming a client of OPL (though this would not be easy)

Horns placing was non-brokered, i.e. the company sold the stock themselves, albeit through 6 finders. Given 51% was taken by AOI, 15% was taken by two ii's (Global Resource Investments Ltd and Sprott Asset Management) i'd imagine most placees had connections to AOI already and were II's - no hope for a PI to get involved.