The Derby 2010

Verance

Soooooo, any fancies anyone?

I'm thinking Jan Vermeer may well be the value, but he's not sure to get his chance. St Nic and Midas Touch definitely travel, while the french derby is still an option for Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer.

Verance

Best Odds:
St Nicholas Abbey (2) , Jan Vermeer (6) , Midas Touch (8) , Bullet Train (10) , Cape Blanco (10) , Rewilding (12) , Azmeel (14) , Workforce (14) , Simon De Montfort (16) , Coordinated Cut (25) , Chabal (33) , Al Zir (40) , Ted Spread (40) , Ameer (66) , Hot Prospect (66) , At First Sight (100) , Averroes (200) , Bright Horizon (200) , Gumnd (200) , Trovare (500)

Workforce looks too big at 14s too. Finished 3 lengths behing Cape Blanco but ran very greenly on only his second start and I can definitely see him reverse that form.

ghosttown

Workforce best odds 10/1 now after Ryan Moore took him for a run. Hard to see ante-post value at this stage, best wait until NRNB. Personally, i think Workforce will be a bet, but will wait !

Verance

Still 14s on Coral, that's sure to go soon...

UrbanSea

Here's a thread on it http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055919117

skeleton_boy

Investec Derby Plans

“Johnny Murtagh rode St Nicholas Abbey this morning and thought he might not have shown the same sparkle that he showed last Tuesday morning, therefore he won’t make up his mind what horse he rides in the Investec Derby until the middle of next week.”

Aidan O’Brien.

Source

Subsequently St Nicholas Abbey is on the drift. 3/1 available now.

heavyballs

Rewilding (12) ,
Great turn of pace,an e/w steal imo

Goldcupfav

heavyballs wrote: »

Rewilding (12) ,
Great turn of pace,an e/w steal imo

That 12/1 is all gone now ! Agree think Rewilding has a great shout !

Warper

Jan Vermeer now favourite and St Nick can be had @ 4-1

Verance

St Nicholas Abbey may well have gone from lay of a lifetime to possibly a bit of value. €47 matched on betfair for him to be placed at 2/1 :eek: Now 5-5.3 on betfair to win.

Kod-box

If Murtagh doesnt ride him i dont think O Brien will run it at all, i wouldnt go near it tbh.

Verance

Kod-box wrote: »

If Murtagh doesnt ride him i dont think O Brien will run it at all, i wouldnt go near it tbh.

He's a definite runner afaik.

NR no bet now with 888sport...

x PyRo

Murtagh will ride St Nic. I'm lumping on now @ 7/2 with Sporting Bet. Not impressed with what Jan Vermeer bet the last day, People are way over-reacting.

martingore

hey verance , I sent you a pm , hope you got it

TheMilkyPirate

St.Nic will run ballydoyle just beefing up his price, Expect a murtagh turnaround n a few days and st.nic shortening again. He will go off favourite on the day in my opinion.

Verance

baraca wrote: »

St.Nic will run ballydoyle just beefing up his price, Expect a murtagh turnaround n a few days and st.nic shortening again. He will go off favourite on the day in my opinion.

Not a hope they're ''beefing up his price''. St Nic only worked as good as Midas Touch the last day, so they are worried, but they think Midas Touch has improved a lot so it's all up in the air. Whoever Murtagh rides will go off favourite, whoever he doesn't ride will probably be the value.

Verance

''A Coral customer stands to win almost £500,000 if the Racing Post Trophy winner lands the Derby, and in the process completes a memorable five horse accumulator.

The man, who wishes to remain anonymous, placed the £1,250 five fold at the Coral betting shop in Downing Street, Farnham, Surrey, on November 25 last year, and is now just one win away from scooping a return of £493,593.75, following wins for Kauto Star, Binocular, Big Buck's and Special Duty. ''

WOW, some roller-coaster! Binocular doubtful for the champion hurdle, Special Duty wins it in the steward's room and now St Nic is doubtful :eek:

Kod-box

Is anywhere going n/r no bet yet?

x PyRo

Most places I'd say. Bet365 are anyways.

Kod-box

PP still have it as anti-post rules apply ffs, prob waiting til tuesday to see if who murtagh choses.

Verance

888 and Blue Square Nr no bet too. St Nic matched @ over 20s on Betfair today, back into 10s now...

kingshankly

expect an announcement soon that murtagh is riding Jan veneer

Nulty

This is the important thing. Anyone hears of NRNB - post here asap. Cape Blanco is 12's with Will Hill now and I'm just waiting for the starting gun.

I'm tempted to have a tiny each way on Buzzword. Could be ridiculous but 66/1 is not ridiculous. Good run in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains and looks like he might get further. His dam placed in G2 over 12f so its not out of the question

Verance

Nulty wrote: »

This is the important thing. Anyone hears of NRNB - post here asap. Cape Blanco is 12's with Will Hill now and I'm just waiting for the starting gun.

I'm tempted to have a tiny each way on Buzzword. Could be ridiculous but 66/1 is not ridiculous. Good run in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains and looks like he might get further. His dam placed in G2 over 12f so its not out of the question

Bet365, 888sport and Blue Square only ones going NR no bet atm...

yaboya1

Kod-box wrote: »

If Murtagh doesnt ride him i dont think O Brien will run it at all, i wouldnt go near it tbh.

Good Shout

yaboya1

Verance wrote: »

He's a definite runner afaik.

NR no bet now with 888sport...

Not so good!

UrbanSea

Hope ye kept your money in your pockets lads,St Nic out of the derby.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

Murtagh will ride St Nic. I'm lumping on now @ 7/2 with Sporting Bet. Not impressed with what Jan Vermeer bet the last day, People are way over-reacting.

Uh-Oh's.

Ah well, Back to the drawing board.

UrbanSea

Pyro did you back it? And was it NRNB?

Nulty

Wow - hahahah.

I feel for everyone who backed him - I really do.

Don't believe the hype!

Verance

Verance wrote: »

''A Coral customer stands to win almost £500,000 if the Racing Post Trophy winner lands the Derby, and in the process completes a memorable five horse accumulator.

The man, who wishes to remain anonymous, placed the £1,250 five fold at the Coral betting shop in Downing Street, Farnham, Surrey, on November 25 last year, and is now just one win away from scooping a return of £493,593.75, following wins for Kauto Star, Binocular, Big Buck's and Special Duty. ''

WOW, some roller-coaster! Binocular doubtful for the champion hurdle, Special Duty wins it in the steward's room and now St Nic is doubtful :eek:

This poor fella falls at the last hurdle.

x PyRo

I did, And no money back. That's alot of my Canford Cliffs winnings gone!

Nulty wrote: »

Wow - hahahah.

I feel for everyone who backed him - I really do.

Don't believe the hype!

I didn't go in because of "hype". I don't even like the horse or AOB but if he was fit and ready he would of won it.

Goldcupfav

Dont think there is that much between to top 7 in the betting. Was looking at Rewilding yesterday and he was 12/1.Now SNA is out he is 11/1. Think he is an E/W steal now !

x PyRo

I can't pick anyone out of that race now, Might lay Jan Vermeer if I can't get anything to back.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

I did, And no money back. That's alot of my Canford Cliffs winnings gone!




I didn't go in because of "hype". I don't even like the horse or AOB but if he was fit and ready he would of won it.

Fair enough. The question is what price did you take and when did you make the bet?

I'm just saying that after the guineas anything was likely to happen due to his performance. Also, if the bet was made before the guineas - his price was too short as there is so much time for things to go wrong, just like they have. Hindsights a great thing but then I haven't had a bet on him myself so its not really after timing.

I agree he looked the real deal but things don't always work out like that.

x PyRo

Nulty wrote: »

Fair enough. The question is what price did you take and when did you make the bet?

I'm just saying that after the guineas anything was likely to happen due to his performance. Also, if the bet was made before the guineas - his price was too short as there is so much time for things to go wrong, just like they have. Hindsights a great thing but then I haven't had a bet on him myself so its not really after timing.

I agree he looked the real deal but things don't always work out like that.

I made it on the 28th when he drifted, I usually don't back them until the day but I though he'd run at least. Was never worried about the Guineas, Didn't think he'd win it anyways.

Couldn't see anyone to challenge him for this, Pitty he's not running.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

I made it on the 28th when he drifted, I usually don't back them until the day but I though he'd run at least. Was never worried about the Guineas, Didn't think he'd win it anyways.

Couldn't see anyone to challenge him for this, Pitty he's not running.

Like I said, I genuinely feel for you but I guess you knew the risks after he drifted. We've all taken risks on drifteres and sometimes it pays off. The chances of him bouncing back after the guineas was pretty aspirational though.

UrbanSea

Even if he ran,I doubt Johnny would have been on him. Being so certain all year,and having such doubts lately,Ballydoyle must realise he musn't be what they thought he was.
Could he be like Rainbow View?

Kod-box

O Donoghue on Cape Blanco and Murtagh on Jan Vermeer then i take it?

UrbanSea

Big ride for O'Donoghue. Heffernan on Midas Touch I take it?

Kod-box

Maybe Heffernan on Cape actually, will be interesting to see anyway.

UrbanSea

I'd take Cape Blanco over Midas Touch, but I'd still send him to France first.

clived2

happy days

UrbanSea

Clived,it won't show graphics,what's the file?

clived2

microsoft word

x PyRo

clived2 wrote: »

happy days

Brilliant Clive, Hope he wins for you.

deewhy

clived2 wrote: »

happy days

Great Bet - well done but an arguement to lay off your €35 stake and perhaps look at someone else - especially if OBrien surprises us and doesnt run him!

UrbanSea

I can't get it to work clive,what is it?

clived2

its not much,

just got 35 on 15/1 bout jan vemeer,

yeah i prob lay off bout 100,
and look into the race in more detail come friday

UrbanSea

Nice one clive,I'd say your happy seeing his price now.

skeleton_boy

Cape Blanco going to France