Conservative-Lib Dem coalition. What future?

bijapos

How long will a Con/LibDem coalition last? I can't help but think that the Conservatives are not too happy about this coalition and I see the following happening:

There will be an inquiry of sorts into election reform, some weak proposals will come out of it, nothing that the LibDems can possibly describe as proper reform. At this stage they will have lost face and should be looking at a new election.

In the meantime the Murdoch media will be giving the LibDems and Clegg a hard time, will paint them as a bunch of wishy washy wasters. At the same time Cameron will be praised as the answer to the UK's problems, a strong hand etc etc, and at some stage when the Conservatives approval ratings are high Cameron will call a snap election and go for an overall majority.

Depending on the state of the economy I give it 12-18 months.

What do ye think?

DJCR

bijapos wrote: »

How long will a Con/LibDem coalition last? I can't help but think that the Conservatives are not too happy about this coalition and I see the following happening:

There will be an inquiry of sorts into election reform, some weak proposals will come out of it, nothing that the LibDems can possibly describe as proper reform. At this stage they will have lost face and should be looking at a new election.

In the meantime the Murdoch media will be giving the LibDems and Clegg a hard time, will paint them as a bunch of wishy washy wasters. At the same time Cameron will be praised as the answer to the UK's problems, a strong hand etc etc, and at some stage when the Conservatives approval ratings are high Cameron will call a snap election and go for an overall majority.

Depending on the state of the economy I give it 12-18 months.

What do ye think?

I think your wrong.... Newspapers in the UK are already annoyed with Cameron for taking so long to get power (5 days without govt)

Not exacty the strong leadership the country needs.

I imagine Clegg will be giving Cameron a hard time is more likely - this is the Lib Dems time to shine..... if they blow ..... the destiny of the Progressive Democrats over here awaits.

I don't think PR will occur but the AV system may be established.... wont help much but its a start.... defo won't be more than that as the Tories will never agree.

There are rumours of a three year agreement............. If the economy stays the same I'd give it the full three years.... the will keep blaming 13 years of Labour rule.

However, if things get good (say in 24 months) I imagine the gov. will collapse as the spending policies will be different!!

FlutterinBantam

If Cameron stands up to the bleeding heart brigade and left wing pinkos,and looks after the bastion of the electorate, the honest, law abiding, hard working taxpayer, I could see a good future.

He must show the leftie bleeding heart liberals who is boss early on though.

DJCR

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

If Cameron stands up to the bleeding heart brigade and left wing pinkos,and looks after the bastion of the electorate, the honest, law abiding, hard working taxpayer, I could see a good future.

He must show the leftie bleeding heart liberals who is boss early on though.

In a land where jobs are scarse and in a country that's people have a major sense of entitlement I can see leftist liberals winning out in the end!!

Unfortunately for the Lib Dems...... Who are royaly screwed!!

Anonymous1987

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

If Cameron stands up to the bleeding heart brigade and left wing pinkos,and looks after the bastion of the electorate, the honest, law abiding, hard working taxpayer, I could see a good future.

He must show the leftie bleeding heart liberals who is boss early on though.

Sorry were you making a point somewhere in that meaningless jargon?

Mr.Micro

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

If Cameron stands up to the bleeding heart brigade and left wing pinkos,and looks after the bastion of the electorate, the honest, law abiding, hard working taxpayer, I could see a good future.

He must show the leftie bleeding heart liberals who is boss early on though.

Most of the Lib Dems will be blue blooded Tories before long as the power will be all consuming. Good riddance to Brown and new Labour. Blair and the economy done the damage and dour Brown never had any charisma. Cameron is shallow, lightweight with little substance. Clegg will have his work cut out but he made the right choice IMO for his party as Labour are very unpopular.

BroomBurner

The Lib-Dems could actually do for the Tories what the Tories could never do for themselves, and make them palatable to the majority of the electorate.

Rumour is that the Conservative inheritance tax and marriage tax is off the table, while the Lib-Dem £10,000 tax-free earning is in.

If the LibDems remain strong and continuously push for transparency, showing what is going on in an honest way, and also keeping the Tories on their toes, then they'll come out of the fixed term government well.

In fact, the LD's can spin it as a win-win for them. If it fails, they can say that it was down to the Tories putting their own interests ahead of that of the people. If it goes well, they can say it was because of their stewardship.

FlutterinBantam

Anonymous1987 wrote: »

Sorry were you making a point somewhere in that meaningless jargon?

Indeed I was, obviously too obtuse for you though.

Don't worry ,I would suspect you will find out fairly soon;)

BroomBurner

Eh, did anyone else hear the Gerbil on Sky just saying that protesters in Ireland had stormed the Irish parliament building?

DJCR

BroomBurner wrote: »

Eh, did anyone else hear the Gerbil on Sky just saying that protesters in Ireland had stormed the Irish parliament building?

Yeah... I thought I was hearing things!!!! I've checked the web, and now I'm watchin RTE news...... still havent heard anything about it to back it up!!

Anonymous1987

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

Indeed I was, obviously too obtuse for you though.

Don't worry ,I would suspect you will find out fairly soon;)

How about you criticise the policies rather than firing out slogans. The Lib-Dems have a lot of potential for common ground for example in area of tax credits for lower income households. As for Cameron standing up to them, very unlikely. The Lib-Dems hold the power they can hold the Tories to ransom, just look at how Cameron was so fast to offer a referendum on PR once Brown stood down. The problems is that the Lib-Dems seem to be split between progressive free market polices and more left wing members which could make them fairly unstable. On the whole though it looks like it could potentially be a very good government with the Tories performing the necessary austerity cuts and the Lib-Dems ensuring that the cuts are progressive or at least not targeted at vulnerable groups.

mike65

You're getting a bit ahead of yourselves, the LDs have to put the deal (whatever the deal is) to the parlimentary party. 75% need to say yes, otherwise it'll be a minority Tory admin with "constructive" opposition from the Lib Dems.

Assuming its past then everyone should know what they've signed up for, and will therefore stick it out. If only to get AV to a referendum. Anyway look at here, the reason the Greens are hanging in there is cos they hope that come the next election things won't look quite so bad and that they might survive largely intact. The Lib Dems and the Tories alike will hope that in 4 years the books look healthier and they won't get hammered.

amacachi

I hope it lasts long enough to get the Tories out and the LibDems' base to collapse. This is possibly the most disillusioned with politics I've ever been.

mike65

5 cabinet postions for the Lib Dems out of about 22, I think that should be enough to tempt them.

Anonymous1987

75% is a fairly large majority, didn't realise it was that high. All the parties seem pretty desperate for power at the moment so it looks like large concessions will made on all sides which doesn't bode well for stability once the dust settles.

SeanW

This could be a positive thing for the U.K, if the resulting government takes a Tory approach to balancing their crazy budget and taking the chainsaw to their bloated public sector (I won't even call them public services because of the number of racism awareness counsellors and global warming advisors and gazillion qaungos they have), combine that with a "lefty" foreign policy, PR-STV voting and some liberal social policy.

Best case scenario is that both the left and the right contribute the best of their policies to the coalition. That's what I'd be hoping for were I a British person right now.

SeanW

BTW, forgive my ignorance, but what is the AV system?

mike65

Alternative Vote

nesf

SeanW wrote: »

BTW, forgive my ignorance, but what is the AV system?

It's the same as the system we use for Presidential elections in this country. It's an improvement on FPTP but not as big a step as a full List or STV system would be and would avoid the need to massively change the constituencies already in place in the UK.

Sandvich

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

If Cameron stands up to the bleeding heart brigade and left wing pinkos,and looks after the bastion of the electorate, the honest, law abiding, hard working taxpayer, I could see a good future.

He must show the leftie bleeding heart liberals who is boss early on though.

Wow, what? Are you a troll or are you serious. Wow.

FlutterinBantam

Sandvich wrote: »

Wow, what? Are you a troll or are you serious. Wow.

I cannot really understand how when a poster outlines his opinion of an OPs question, and gives an answer in plain terms, some people think it's trolling.

The op asked a question

I gave my answer.

That's the way these things work I assume.

I wouldn't last long around here if I went round implying that people were trolls if I didn't agree with their outlook.

toomevara

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

I cannot really understand how when a poster outlines his opinion of an OPs question, and gives an answer in plain terms,

Indeed, I think your opinion is shared by a large section of the English (if not necessarily the UK) electorate, and its certainly a legitimate position. (This by the way from one of those liberal, leftie, pinkos who's apparently in need of a good conservative spanking...ooohh matron.;)) All I can say to that is "no pasaran!" We'll fight the tories and their new best buds all the way....Think a year or two of labour retrenchment, coupled with some good old tory cuts and austerity will see labour back in in double quick time, possibly a year or two.

Anonymous1987

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

I cannot really understand how when a poster outlines his opinion of an OPs question, and gives an answer in plain terms, some people think it's trolling.

The op asked a question

I gave my answer.

That's the way these things work I assume.

I wouldn't last long around here if I went round implying that people were trolls if I didn't agree with their outlook.

Nothing wrong with your opinion its just the way you present it (bleeding heart liberals and left wing pinkos) suggests you're looking to pick a scrap rather than discussion. If you said for example Cameron should should not be giving large concessions to a party with only a small minority of MP's not reflective of the vast majority of voters then you'll likely get far more constructive discussion.

OS119

toomevara wrote: »

...Think a year or two of labour retrenchment, coupled with some good old tory cuts and austerity will see labour back in in double quick time, possibly a year or two.

oh i don't know - never underestimate the ability of Labour to decide that a civil war is more interesting than an open political goal.

Ed Balls - as venal and vicous politician as its possible to imagine - various Millibands, Mandelson, AC, Harman, Straw et al, all squabbling at the top of the LP (entirely regardless of who becomes leader), i wouldn't be remotely surprised if they make the Labour party of the 1980's look like a paragon of united civility.

toomevara

OS119 wrote: »

oh i don't know - never underestimate the ability of Labour to decide that a civil war is more interesting than an open political goal.

Indeed always the great imponderable...although I doubt we'll see anything like an '82 style implosion. There is no militant tendancy element this time round, although there is obviously an inherent tension between new labour Blairites like Miliband/Balls/Cooper et al and more old labour types such as Cruddas. I advocated Johnson as leader because he's probably acceptable to both wings of party but I don't see the Labour party tearing itself apart in anything like the manner its done in the past.

Good one lol!

OS119

toomevara wrote: »

Indeed always the great imponderable...although I doubt we'll see anything like an '82 style implosion. There is no militant tendancy element this time round, although there is obviously an inherent tension between new labour Blairites like Miliband/Balls/Cooper et al and more old labour types such as Cruddas. I advocated Johnson as leader because he's probably acceptable to both wings of party but I don't see the Labour party tearing itself apart in anything like the manner its done in the past.

i'm not sure - my understanding is that while you could certainly point to big policy differences between with the New Labour faction and the Old Labour faction, the real problem within Labour is deep personal animosity within the NL faction. they loathe each other in a way not seen in the Tory party since Thatcher and Heath - Balls is just hated by pretty much everyone, Balls hates, loathes and despises Milliband and Johnson. Balls now loathes (even more) the boys Milliband for ditching the Dear Leader - if you look the the BBC film of Brown walking into the Labour Party offices past the cheering crowds he talks to the woman before Ed, completely blanks him - and the gesture is returned - and talks too the person on the other side of him with big smiles...

Brown hated Robin Cook - he actually didn't speak to him for the best part of 8 years, yet Brown was Chancellor of the Exchequer and Cook was Foriegn Secretary - Brown would never adress him in cabinet, never even acknowledge his existance. Balls is built on the same lines - he takes political issues entirely personally.

toomevara

OS119 wrote: »

Brown hated Robin Cook - he actually didn't speak to him for the best part of 8 years, yet Brown was Chancellor of the Exchequer and Cook was Foriegn Secretary - Brown would never adress him in cabinet, never even acknowledge his existance. Balls is built on the same lines - he takes political issues entirely personally.

Brown of course had a bit of a habit of that...exibit A; Mandelson, but when he believed it politically expedient he brought him back into the fold, (whether that was a politically intelligent move or not is another days work). I'm hoping that a similar approach will prevail within the labour party post election. David Miliband has announced, surprise, surprise that he's running. Balls will throw his hat in the ring..he's third favourite according to the bookies at the minute , but He's far too divisive a figure to take the leadership imo, for all the reasons you've outlined above....

Anonymous1987

Deleted User wrote: »

Good one lol!

While I don't agree with the point being made, you have to appreciate political satire like that.

djpbarry

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

If Cameron stands up to the bleeding heart brigade and left wing pinkos,and looks after the bastion of the electorate, the honest, law abiding, hard working taxpayer, I could see a good future.

He must show the leftie bleeding heart liberals who is boss early on though.

There was a time in the not-too-distant past when terms such as the above actually meant something.

walshb

Has anyone mentioned how Cameron was so put on the spot when he was
asked by a journalist if he regrets "When asked what was your favourite joke, you replied, Nick Clegg." Talk about being put on the spot. Brilliant, but embarrassing!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Z3W7dp85dY

Jonny7

I think its great! will be an interesting experiment - who or what will win the day?

genuine drive and passion to work together to make a better country OR
the more likely breakdown, spin, arguing, spats, etc

Also, this is why I follow British politics and not Irish.. I am not connected to it, it doesn't affect me, therefore I don't get frustrated at all.. I lapped up the expenses scandal and now I'm just enjoying all this.

OS119

walshb wrote: »

Has anyone mentioned how Cameron was so put on the spot when he was
asked by a journalist if he regrets "When asked what was your favourite joke, you replied, Nick Clegg." Talk about being put on the spot. Brilliant,. but embarrassing!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Z3W7dp85dY

the vastly more interesting thing is how easily it was laughed off - body launguage rarely lies.

it seems obvious from the body language, particularly and most importantly of the two leaders, that they get on well personally and understand the meaning of partnership - we both get most of what we really want, can live without the things the other guy finds most problematic, and we actively try to make the other party's life easier even if it means denying ourselves.

not making a party political point, but imagine if that had come up at the start of the last coalition in British politics - Tony Blair and Gordon Brown - there would have been embarassed silences, dark looks and Gordon would have stormed off and sulked for 10 years.

i don't underestimate the difficulties of such a coalition - the monsterous tensions between the right-wing of the Cons and the Left-wing of the LD's, by-elections between the two parties, Labour winning by-elections and making not-so-sublte overtures towards left-wing LD MP's, some Tory MP's and their swivel-eyed headbanging loon views of Europe, the friction of just being in government and being bashed by 'events dear boy, events', and issues within the LD's and the internal friction of turning from a 'protest' opposition party where one can believe in almost any cause and there's room for you, to becoming a 'sensible' governing party.

but at least they seem to like each other, and they do have significant common ground on the most immediate issues.

Anonymous1987

Clegg and Cameron would seem to have no problem in finding common ground and I think they are so alike that they will strike a good personal relationship. Cameron is more a pragmatist than people give him credit for. Its managing the both parties external and even internal conflicting interests that will prove the challenge.

Humria

I'd say there will be huge pressure on the Lib Dems to make this work. If a successful coalition can be achieved it will dispute the argument that a PR system of voting will result in weak government. Although AV doesn't reflect the votes as well as PR it is definitely a step in the right direction, if the referendum can be passed. I heard that the Lib Dems would have gotten approx 20 extra seats with an AV system of voting. I don't have a link for that as I heard it second-hand but it seems plausible.

irishh_bob

Anonymous1987 wrote: »

Clegg and Cameron would seem to have no problem in finding common ground and I think the are so alike that they will strike a good personal relationship. Cameron is more a pragmatist than people give him credit for. Its managing the both parties external and even internal conflicting interests that will prove the challenge.

by traditional tory standards , cameron is very much in the centre , he is not what you would call an idealogue , clegg is also a pragmatist , its no surprise the lib dems decided to go up the aisle with the conservatives instead of hitching thier wagon to labour , brown is ( was ) a nightmare to work with , the guy is ( was ) a brooding , plotting , sulking dour control freak

steelcityblues

If you observe Clegg's political background, he really is Tory-lite. It will be more interesting to see if the likes of Vince Cable, Danny Alexander, and not to mention most backbenchers, keep up with the cosy arrangement line for long enough!

Anonymous1987

steelcityblues wrote: »

If you observe Clegg's political background, he really is Tory-lite. It will be more interesting to see if the likes of Vince Cable, Danny Alexander, and not to mention most backbenchers, keep up with the cosy arrangement line for long enough!

If you ask me most of the Lib-Dems with minsterial positions are Tory-Lite, Cable was an economist, Laws was ex-city and Huhne was part of the orange book policy. Pretty much all free market. Whether they'll have trouble with agreeing on Europe, Foreign Policy and Immigration is another thing.

Persiancowboy

Anonymous1987 wrote: »

Its managing the both parties external and even internal conflicting interests that will prove the challenge.

Without wishing to be too frivolous with the Tories back in power I am greatly anticipating the return of the good old-fashioned British sex scandal. The Tory Party has this down to a fine art so after 13 years of staid and boring Labour we can look forward to a return to some salacious scandals involving members of the new Government party. Methinks Cameron's biggest challenge will be keeping his own loopers in check.

How soon before one of them is found in some den of iniquity in a pair of fishnet tights, an orange stuck in his mouth and something else in one of his other orifices? :eek: The good times are truely back!!!

steelcityblues

Persiancowboy wrote: »

Without wishing to be too frivolous with the Tories back in power I am greatly anticipating the return of the good old-fashioned British sex scandal. The Tory Party has this down to a fine art so after 13 years of staid and boring Labour we can look forward to a return to some salacious scandals involving members of the new Government party. Methinks Cameron's biggest challenge will be keeping his own loopers in check.

How soon before one of them is found in some den of iniquity in a pair of fishnet tights, an orange stuck in his mouth and something else in one of his other orifices? :eek: The good times are truely back!!!

"Back to Basics!"