XCITE ENERGY Limited

katie21

Anyone heard anything or have any opinion on these shares?
There seems to be alot of talk on some of the English Forums about this company and the opportunities lying ahead, with talk of more than 800% increases expected after drilling in July/August!!

Anyone any thoughts?

Thargor

Got any links please to the discussions?

The Pontiac

Thargor wrote: »

Got any links please to the discussions?

Article here and lots of discussion here. Up over 6% again today.

The Pontiac

There's another article here if anyone is interested. This is an exciting stock indeed, and risky.

YFlyer

Yee will want to check at what cost it will take to refine the oil. If the cost of sweet crude is low it won't be worth it.

The Pontiac

It seems Excite Energy aren't a alone in seeking the benefits of heavy crude oil production. Interesting article on heavy crude here> Middle East producers see heavy oil in their future.

The Bentley oil Field in the North Sea is Excite's sole asset, so obviously everything depends on them getting the oil out successfully. Drilling is set for late July with testing due to be completed in late August or early September. The economics of the project have also been improved by changes introduced in the April 2009 UK budget when the government announced new tax incentives for heavy oil projects.

Any oil experts here with a view on this? The advances in technology in recent years for heavy crude production seem to be making this look very attractive indeed.

Is this going to make 'Excite Energy' the third biggest player in the North Sea as many are claiming? Any opinions greatly appreciated.

YFlyer

No results of the hydrocarbon content yet. I wouldn't make any investment until the oil is characterized.

pirelli

Would a straddle option work on this. Will this be very volatile on the news of the character of the oil.

Raskolnikov

<Ollie> wrote: »

This is an exciting stock indeed, and risky.

It must be a great investment then!

No one has bothered to answer the two most important things that any investors needs to know about an oil stock.

1. What are the proven reserves?
2. What are the rough costs going to be in pulling the stuff out of the ground?

These are not difficult questions to answer and if you're too lazy to find them then stop wasting peoples time, this is an investing forum, not a gambling one.

The Pontiac

Raskolnikov wrote: »

It must be a great investment then!

No one has bothered to answer the two most important things that any investors needs to know about an oil stock.

1. What are the proven reserves?
2. What are the rough costs going to be in pulling the stuff out of the ground?

These are not difficult questions to answer and if you're too lazy to find them then stop wasting peoples time, this is an investing forum, not a gambling one.

Oh sweet jesus, would you ever relax! I said it was exciting as in 'Xciting'. It is indeed risky, because they might not be able to get the bloody stuff out of the ground. In the broker's report: they're giving it a 70% chance of success. And yes, I've read the various share price targets depending on the reserves and a successful commercial' extraction/flow rate.

I actually read an article on this company before this thread ever started , so I decided to make a post, and it annoyed you.

1. What are the proven reserves?
2. What are the rough costs going to be in pulling the stuff out of the ground?

These are not difficult questions to answer and if you're too lazy to find them then stop wasting peoples time, this is an investing forum, not a gambling one

Oh dear me. I already know the answer to these questions. The funds are already there (£25m through the share placing) to complete the drilling and flow testing of a pre-development well (late July or early August). Everything boils down to this drilling and the results. I also think some of the partners involved may have different percentage stakes in the project (BP, AMEC and Transocean/ADTI). I have also read various reports on the strong management team at Excite, and all the years of experience they have, and how well they're thought of in the industry. AMEC, the engineering company, are also very highly regarded. BP are only responsible for getting the oil to market, thank god!

I still have no idea what you're getting at here; only to make yourself come across as a real serious investor. LOL.

You might want to read my second post in this thread, where I genuinely sought advice from experts in this field, as I normally don't invest in oil companies. This is called research.

Even from a non-investor's perspective, this is a very exciting project indeed. Even if I don't decide to invest, I'd still be very interested in the outcome.

Raskolnikov

<Ollie> wrote: »

Oh sweet jesus, would you ever relax! I said it was exciting as in 'Xciting'. It is indeed risky, because they might not be able to get the bloody stuff out of the ground.

You might want to read my second post in this thread, where I genuinely sought advice from experts in this field, as I normally don't invest in oil companies. This is called research.

Hey now, there no need to get xcite-d; you asked for an opinion, and I gave it. They have no revenues, have never made a profit, and they may not even be successful in their drilling operation.

The Pontiac

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Hey now, there no need to get xcite-d; you asked for an opinion, and I gave it. They have no revenues, have never made a profit, and they may not even be successful in their drilling operation.

Well done. Your opinion is invaluable. I already stated this in my post a few days ago (post no.6) when I stated "The Bentley oil Field in the North Sea is Excite's sole asset, so obviously everything depends on them getting the oil out successfully." How is god's name could they have ever made a profit or have any revenues? I then went on to ask other people's opinion on the extraction of heavy oil, advances in technology etc.. I also posted a link to a recent article on this very topic.

And you go on about me wasting people's time. Incredible!

Raskolnikov

Look, I'm not going to get into an argument with you over this. It's just that you aren't even coming close to understanding the risk of this. Deep-water drilling is one of the most riskiest, difficult and expensive operations that you can do in the world. Look at BP, they're one of the largest and most experienced explorers in the world and the company is close to going to the wall. You talk about a share placing of £25 million; do you realise that the cost of deep water drilling can approach $1 million a day, per rig? That's the reason why deep water drilling is dominated by experienced players like Exxon, BP and large-cap explorers - if there are any problems, they have the financial muscle to come through them. On the other hand, if Xcite have any problems, they're bankrupt.

pirelli

This is starting to move.

cooperguy

Ya, contracts for the rig now signed so price has been heading up. Drilling starts end of september. If they can prove they can get fast enough extraction rates then expect price to rocket

cooperguy

Just an update on this stock. The drill rig has been secured, moved to the drill site and drilling has started. Soon they will be testing for flow rates, which if they prove commercial should bring the stock to £3 or £4 depending on flow rates achieved.

The stock is currently at £1.33 (i bought at 64p back around july so im already happy!)

katie21

Yeah, i am very happy too. I bought in in the low 70's and topped up again at 1.12 so happy with the gains made so far. Onwards and upwards for this share I think.

royaler83

katie21 wrote: »

Yeah, i am very happy too. I bought in in the low 70's and topped up again at 1.12 so happy with the gains made so far. Onwards and upwards for this share I think.

Yeah I bought the bulk of my holding at 75p and topped up a couple of time at around 103p.

Hoping it'll reach 150p+ on the run up to flow rate results so I can top slice as its very risky leaving all in, nice to take some profit and de-risk.

Are ye going to do the same or are ye staying all in?!

Flow rate results of 3500bopd+ and this will be 300p+

katie21

I'm going to leave all in.
I am only a small time investor and can AFFORD to lose what I have invested if it comes to that.
But I have a very strong feeling we are going to see a big rise here over the next few months!! I agree with your 300p+ prediction.
But you are right to de-risk if thats how you feel

The Pontiac

Yeah, a slight retrace today on the gains over the last two days (14% Tues and 6% yesterday). Down around 6% today so not bad at all.

Comparing the 70%-80% COS here to the popular Fawkland oilies like Desire Petroleum for instance makes XEL a no-brainer if one had to choose an oil stock to invest in. The next campaign by DES (after the sidetrack on Rachel) of the Dawn/Jacinta prospect has a mere 6% and 8% COS respectively. I think the industry average is around 1/4 COS. DES had a market cap of £500m only a fortnight ago and that's with NO proven oil at all. Quite extraordinary really.

I got in here at 64p after they signed the rig contract, so 100% up atm. Actually it was the easiest 'risk-free' money I ever made (paper profit) as the share price was always going to go up getting closer to the drilling campaign.

We should be seeing results mid to late November as it's a 62 day drilling campaign. It's obvioulsy risker buying at today's price, but positve flow results and a possible increase of recoverable resources (Bentley is a 1 billion barrel field) could see this going to £3-£4 p/s by the end of the year. Poor results would probably see it back to the 40p-50p ranges. Altough, looking at what flow rates Statoil got (3,400 bopd) from the neighbouring/analogous Bressay field, it's makes our prospects look very, very good indeed.

cooperguy

royaler83 wrote: »

Yeah I bought the bulk of my holding at 75p and topped up a couple of time at around 103p.

Hoping it'll reach 150p+ on the run up to flow rate results so I can top slice as its very risky leaving all in, nice to take some profit and de-risk.

Are ye going to do the same or are ye staying all in?!

Flow rate results of 3500bopd+ and this will be 300p+

I derisked a bit at 1.15 so im in until results now. To be honest I dont see it reaching 1.50 before results but thats just me. I could be way off!

YFlyer

cooperguy wrote: »

I derisked a bit at 1.15 so im in until results now. To be honest I dont see it reaching 1.50 before results but thats just me. I could be way off!

Which results? As in the characterisation of the heavy oil?

cooperguy

YFlyer wrote: »

Which results? As in the characterisation of the heavy oil?

As in the results of the flow tests after this drill. This will show just how commercial the field can be. Ill decide my next move once i know that much! Should have news in a few weeks.

YFlyer

cooperguy wrote: »

As in the results of the flow tests after this drill. This will show just how commercial the field can be. Ill decide my next move once i know that much! Should have news in a few weeks.

Ok thanks. They have data on there previous drillings on their website. May be of some benefit to compare with the new field. Have not read it in detail. The API seems quite good for heavy oil tho. Haven't looked at what pressure the crude is at in the well(s).

Will read then some other time

royaler83

cooperguy wrote: »

I derisked a bit at 1.15 so im in until results now. To be honest I dont see it reaching 1.50 before results but thats just me. I could be way off!

I really think if there is a positive drilling RNS or two before flow test results at end of november then we could well see 150p, not many shares in issue(for an oilly) and there will be plenty looking to get in before results. Only my opinion.

If they do hit 150p then I hope I can keep my discipline and top slice despite the massive gains that may lie ahead.

I read an article today saying that their equipment is limited to measure up to 2800-3000bopd so a flow rate at around these figures is the best we can hope for.

Mr Cawley

If flow rate is poor and they drop to 40p could i gain it back (131p)?

Is everyone happy taking the risk with the 70pc chance it'll go to 3pounds?

What's the longer term outlook if you had to guess?

Buy what you can afford to lose?

MrK

Beachband

Have looked over this company, so more or less ready to invest.
Haven't traded in awhile, previous experience has garnered gains, but after alot of looking, this is something to invest in.

Which company/brokerage is best to use, to buy into this stock?

Mr Cawley

sweet jesus

royaler83

Mr Cawley wrote: »

sweet jesus

Love it!!

Can't bring myself to top slice just yet though because after this morning I can see this rising to well up over 200p on the run up to results at the end of november.

The Pontiac

Mr Cawley wrote: »

sweet jesus

Yes, a nice RNS to wake up to on a Monday morning. It explains the big buys late on Friday now. It was up over 30% when I logged on first thing this morning and around 22% as I type.

For those interested, the RNS was a drilling update and basically they encountered greater oil volume from the drill. Article from iii.co.uk here explains.

The flow test results due in late November is the biggie though and could send into a few £'s.

MrMatisse

katie21 wrote: »

Anyone heard anything or have any opinion on these shares?
There seems to be alot of talk on some of the English Forums about this company and the opportunities lying ahead, with talk of more than 800% increases expected after drilling in July/August!!

Anyone any thoughts?

I hardly think that constitutes good investment advice. Youll attract every penny share clown on this forum towards this now.

with talk of more than 800% increases expected after drilling in July/August!!

FFS this just annoys me, what talk? From who? .

The Pontiac

Really-Stressed wrote: »

I hardly think that constitutes good investment advice. Youll attract every penny share clown on this forum towards this now.

with talk of more than 800% increases expected after drilling in July/August!!

FFS this just annoys me, what talk? From who? .

Who's giving "investment advice"? I thought she was seeking advice.

MrMatisse

Im referring to the chatter/****e talk on iii

Fr Dougal Mcguire

is it still worth investing in these shares seeing as ask price is gone so high. Anyone take a wild guess as to what they think these share prices will go to in the next few weeks or months

cooperguy

royaler83 wrote: »

I really think if there is a positive drilling RNS or two before flow test results at end of november then we could well see 150p, not many shares in issue(for an oilly) and there will be plenty looking to get in before results. Only my opinion.

If they do hit 150p then I hope I can keep my discipline and top slice despite the massive gains that may lie ahead.

I read an article today saying that their equipment is limited to measure up to 2800-3000bopd so a flow rate at around these figures is the best we can hope for.

I am very happy to admit I was wrong

Fr Dougal Mcguire wrote:

is it still worth investing in these shares seeing as ask price is gone so high. Anyone take a wild guess as to what they think these share prices will go to in the next few weeks or months

Yes, its worth investing still. At the end of the day if you think there is a chance the flow rates will be reached then in the short term there is targets of £3+ for the price. Its important to note that if the drill goes the wrong way you could be scraping 40p

There is at least a 70% COS though so in my opinion its worth the risk

The Pontiac

Fr Dougal Mcguire wrote: »

is it still worth investing in these shares seeing as ask price is gone so high.

£1.74 (current price) will look very cheap if they get the flow rates late November. If they don't, it will tank, as Bentley is their only asset. Could see it back to 50p, with another placing and try it again.

Basically, it's up to the indivdual if the risk-reward ratio suits them. Today's RNS update confirmed more oil shows ("significantly" as stated). There's lots of oil in Bentley, but they must get it to flow first.

Anyone take a wild guess as to what they think these share prices will go to in the next few weeks or months

40p or 400p would be my guess by the end of the year. Some broker targets give an even greater upside to good results, but I'm finding it difficult to put a timescale on things i.e. when they start the Early Production System and start getting early revenue, or when they go into Full Field Development in a few years. There might also be a takeover bid.

The 'Bentley Alliance' is also quite unique, with BP as a significant partner whose job will be blending, refinery tests and the marketing of the oil in exchange for a percentage per barrlel.They will also be providing a $20m credit facility to Xcite when they go to FFD. Full details of the 'Bentley Alliance' have yet to be published, but it bodes well to limit further dilution (although some is inevitable) or a farm out agreement, leaving XEL with 100% ownership of Bentley. This together with the £20m Seda funding they secured from Yorkville last month puts them in a very, very good position.

So if they get the black stuff to flow, the future looks very promising indeed.

At the 60'sp ranges (only last July), this was the equivalent of walking into the bookies tomorrow and getting 6/1 on Chelsea winning the league this year. i.e. not a foregone conclusion, but you were getting staggering odds.

I'm also struggling to press the sell button and take out my initial stake. I'll probably leave it closer to results. I just hope I've the sense to do this as there's still risk here. It'll be intersting to see if there's a retrace tomorrow from today's rise.

The Pontiac

It should also be noted the limited number of shares in issue to private investors. The following is the holdings, taken from XEL's homepage. Current number shares in issue is 134,540,520 and roughly 67m are owned by directors and institutions, leaving roughly only 68m for private investors. There's around 2.5m outstanding warrants. This is another factor that can make the share price move very fast as we've seen already. The opposite is also possible too of course.

Shareholder Name No. of Shares Percentage of XEL Fidelity Investment Services (UK) 12,000,000 8.9% Ignis Investment Services 10,000,000 7.4% Third Point LLC 7,070,000 5.3% Standard Life Investments 6,663,065 5.0% Stephen A. Kew 6,314,285 4.7% Richard E. Smith 6,300,000 4.7% Rupert E. Cole 6,300,000 4.7% Sprott Asset Management 6,022,600 4.5% J.M Finn & Co Ltd 4,593,059 3.4%

Beachband

So has anyone any recommendations whats the best broker/company to use in investing in these shares??

norrie1971

Hi
I am a canadian investor who go in for 80 cents. It is now at 2.60, and i am in for the long haul, just want to know how long.

Smcgie

Top slice, study a different share leave the company to mature or when your in need of a cash call.

The Pontiac

£2 broken (it was mid 60's when the thread was started)

Nice RNS today "Xcite Energy announces the award of in aggregate 3,600,000 options to purchase ordinary shares of the Company to each of the following Directors and members of the Xcite Energy Resources Limited (the Company's wholly owned subsidiary) management team".

Now that's confidence before flow results. This has the potential to really take off.

The Pontiac

Sorry, but I forgot to mention the options were purchased at yesterday's closing price. So no discount or anything here.

Mr Cawley

Ollie,

Are you staying in for drill results? I don't think I can risk it myself. Congrats on the gains to this point.

Mr K

I am now in, greed is an ugly trait...

Cyrus

whats the story with this lads,

when are the drill results expected?

if they are positive i assume its up up and away, and if not its worth less?

im tempted to open a spread bet position with a tightish stop loss to take a punt on the drilling results

royaler83

Well it's gone up passed 200p and I still haven't top sliced, had a target of 150p to top slice.

This mornings news is a vote of confidence if ever there was one.

Really feeling greedy and might just stay all in, might regret it though

The Pontiac

Mr Cawley wrote: »

Ollie,

Are you staying in for drill results? I don't think I can risk it myself. Congrats on the gains to this point.

Mr K

I am now in, greed is an ugly trait...

Yes Mr Crawley, I'm staying in 100% for the results now with no top slicing involved. Up 11% today to £2.15 and there's a lot of positive vibes about this one. It's only a paper profit thus far, but I'm feeling confident. Good start for yourself too. Best of luck whatever your strategy is!

katie21

Up 16% today... this share is unstoppable!! roll on the end of November/early December for results day

The Pontiac

I think we'll have results by the 20th at the latest. They gave themselves 60 days for a good 'weather window' and it's perfect in the North Sea at the moment. It went past £2.50 earlier in the day too.

Mr Cawley

I think i'll avoid the risk of the flow results and buy in as soon as possible after the (positive;)) RNS, should still multibag from there. agree/ disagree Ollie/Katie? Thanks

K

katie21

I would get in before the results. I think it will multiply again after results but as it has such a low risk you should try get in with a small amount maybe before the flow results and keep a bit back to invest after results just in case. But its up to you as always do your own thing.

The Pontiac

Up to you Mr. Crawley.

XEL up 8.54% today, when europe's top shares took their biggest daily drop since July 1st.

Watch this space!