I wonder whats coming in the 2011 Budget, all ideas, suggestions and opinions welcome

pfy2k

I wonder will VAT slide back up again this year, maybe more then the 0.5 of a percent. 23-24pc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pot Noodle =

Are you Bertie

pfy2k

God no, how insulting! lol:eek:

Pot Noodle =

Enda then

pfy2k

Enda the cardboard man, what next Pat Kenny!:rolleyes:

Pot Noodle =

Eamon it is then:D

Dotsie~tmp

A new wonder food called soylent-green.

danbohan

pfy2k wrote: »

I wonder will VAT slide back up again this year, maybe more then the 0.5 of a percent. 23-24pc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i see a great sadness and darkness over the whole island , sh''''''t , sorry thats the ash cloud ,

changes

The new social insurance contributions replacing the PRSI could be a tough one of people at the lower pay levels. Sounds like everyone will be paying it.

hinault

According to Minister Lenihan's 2010 budget speech, the 2011 budget will be another deflationary budget which will see further downward pressure on govt expenditure in this economy.

His problem is that the number of people employed in this economy has reduced and may well reduce further, thus diminshing the existing taxbase.

The overhang from the bank debacle will persist whereby the taxpayer will be asked to pick up the tab.

Although we have been told that tax increases are not a viable option, I would not be surprised if there was a small increase in the rate of income tax which we will have to pay.

ei.sdraob

hinault wrote: »

According to Minister Lenihan's 2010 budget speech, the 2011 budget will be another deflationary budget which will see further downward pressure on govt expenditure in this economy.

His problem is that the number of people employed in this economy has reduced and may well reduce further, thus diminshing the existing taxbase.

The overhang from the bank debacle will persist whereby the taxpayer will be asked to pick up the tab.

Although we have been told that tax increases are not a viable option, I would not be surprised if there was a small increase in the rate of income tax which we will have to pay.

considering half the workforce is outside the taxnet for all intents and purposes

we most likely see more people dragged in

PeakOutput

i reckon more big cuts to social welfare and the public service although i doubt what those will be has been decided yet and wont be until after the unions let us know about the deal

i would say up to 50% of the people currently outside the tax net will be brought into it in one way or another

if they had any sense they would cut vat but they will probably just leave it the same

hopefully capital project spending will be brought back to what it was meant to be as i fail to see any reason for stopping capital development in a time when we can get really good deals on contracts

it would be good to see a completely new approach to social welfare say an outline of how things will be reformed over the next 5-10 years but it wont happen

rightwingdub

Social welfare will need to be cut by about 15% in budget 2011, even sacred cows like the OAP will need to be cut, same with one parent family payment, child benefit will need to be cut.

I hope the government has learnt its lesson from the vat FIASCO OF oCTOBER 08, people flocked up North in their droves when VAT was cut.

I bet you public sector pay won't be touched again.

ardmacha

I bet you public sector pay won't be touched again.

One would imagine so, given that the government has made an agreement to that effect and the public finances are pretty much on target. Even Cowan and co have some morality.

Scarab80

ardmacha wrote: »

One would imagine so, given that the government has made an agreement to that effect and the public finances are pretty much on target. Even Cowan and co have some morality.

Part of that target is to further reduce public spending next year. It all depends whether this can be achieved by efficiency savings by public and civil servants per the Croke Park deal or through further pay cuts per rejection of the deal.

max 73

does it really matter????

the govt have ballsed it up in the last 6/7 years so they're not going to get it right this time.....unless it's by pure luck..

we're in deep trouble, no one really gives a damn what happens as long as they are ok, so basically i couldn't care less what they do, i work hard to try and keep my job (put on 3 days too) with no guarantee that it will be there in 6 months time and they are hinting at putting up taxes/vat/etc/etc

to be honest it's like re-arranging the deck chairs on the titantic....might look like they are doing something but we're going down and they've flogged the liferafts too

i'll give you a suggestion...............we realise that we are tiny player in the world stage (not a big one like we think we are) or we close the door, turn off the lights and say thanks for nothing!

lifeinireland

max 73 wrote: »

does it really matter????

the govt have ballsed it up in the last 6/7 years so they're not going to get it right this time.....unless it's by pure luck..

we're in deep trouble, no one really gives a damn what happens as long as they are ok, so basically i couldn't care less what they do, i work hard to try and keep my job (put on 3 days too) with no guarantee that it will be there in 6 months time and they are hinting at putting up taxes/vat/etc/etc

to be honest it's like re-arranging the deck chairs on the titantic....might look like they are doing something but we're going down and they've flogged the liferafts too

i'll give you a suggestion...............we realise that we are tiny player in the world stage (not a big one like we think we are) or we close the door, turn off the lights and say thanks for nothing!

i think we are on the same wave length,will be more of the same as last year,cant do a thing about it ,i think we are liiking at 4% rise in taxes.:mad:

RichardAnd

Well brining the "low income" 50% of people into the tax loop has been hinted at so I think we can be sure that will be coming.

Social welfare will, probably, be dropping down another few euros a week. Thing about this is, and this only recently occurred to me, if this Croke Park deal is accepted and PS wages are not cut then cutting social welfare payments would become very messy. I don't think many on the dole will easily accept a cut when state employees are "left alone". I'm sure that's been mentioned by other before me though.

I could also see college fees being mentioned in some shape or form. Probably a registration increase for now but, more than likely, there will be talk of full 3rd level fees coming back. A day I look forward to.

VAT could be interesting. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to encourage spending which seems to be rising. It would be a smart move by the government to do this as the marginal drop in prices could tip more cautious consumers into spending a little extra cash.

It will be a deflationary budget though, no doubt about that. Anyone hoping for FF to create jobs should not get excited.

K-9

hinault wrote: »

Although we have been told that tax increases are not a viable option, I would not be surprised if there was a small increase in the rate of income tax which we will have to pay.

Tax credits and cut of points will remain the same thus bringing more people into the tax net, 41% bracket.

When he said no more tax increases, he meant PAYE/Levies, not Water rates, PRSI Increases or property taxes. They'll see the big hit on the tax revenue side.

Can see cuts to SW rates and big changes to the rules regarding payments, guaranteed if the pay deal goes through. If not, the pay bill will get hit.

Nijmegen

Raising direct tax on those already paying it is not an option, there is a point of deminishing returns. Same for VAT etc.

We will see other taxes like water charges having an effect, but in the grand scheme of things these will provide small nurishment (especially considering that some of these taxes will, hopefully, be earmarked to bring specific benefit in the economy, eg the upgrading of our woeful water infrastructure)

Bringing the 50% of the workforce that pays no income tax into the loop in some way, shape or form is another small step that can be taken - small, in that we do not want to tax their limited incomes too heavily as there is, again, points of diminishing returns.

The next thing is cutting our bloated public spending bill. Of course this is the area of most contention, given the unwillingness to cut numbers in a targeted fashion as one would in any right-thinking private organization.

We need to make cuts and bring in reform. There is no other way.

To make the kind of cuts as last time, I am constantly reminded of the tax expert on The Frontline before the last budget: To make the cuts required without making cuts in public sector pay and without bringing more people into the tax band, one would need to tax married couplies on all joint income of over €75,000 at 75% - Eg. If both partners earned any more than €37,500 each, they would lose 75 cents in every euro in tax.

Cuts, cuts, cuts. Our state is too bloated as it is.

ardmacha

The next thing is cutting our bloated public spending bill. Of course this is the area of most contention, given the unwillingness to cut numbers in a targeted fashion as one would in any right-thinking private organization.

It is perfectly rational to seek to avoid paying out large amounts of redundancy, especially as the State then has to pay unemployment as well.

Our state is too bloated as it is.

Ireland is notable, not for the size of its State, but for the small proportion of GNP collected in taxes.

K-9

ardmacha wrote: »

Ireland is notable, not for the size of its State, but for the small proportion of GNP collected in taxes.

Any figures for that? Our tax take is lowered because it was based on low direct taxes and high indirect taxes.

ardmacha

Any figures for that? Our tax take is lowered because it was based on low direct taxes and high indirect taxes.

Revenue is less than 30% of GNP. No European style government can run on that. The composition of taxes needs to be rebalanced in a situation where there are not huge numbers of houses being sold.

K-9

ardmacha wrote: »

Revenue is less than 30% of GNP. No European style government can run on that. The composition of taxes needs to be rebalanced in a situation where there are not huge numbers of houses being sold.

I agree, problem is doing this in an economy that a huge number of houses aren't being sold, where is the bubble taxes that sourced the increases PS pay and SW increases?

PS. Pay and SW increases where based on the old tax system, that we all agree was wrong. The 2 ends need to suffer, not just one.

dean21

K-9 wrote: »

I agree, problem is doing this in an economy that a huge number of houses aren't being sold, where is the bubble taxes that sourced the increases PS pay and SW increases?

PS. Pay and SW increases where based on the old tax system, that we all agree was wrong. The 2 ends need to suffer, not just one.

Back to 48% tax for the high paid
wont touch PS as i think they are happy to have got away with the cuts without a all out strike and in 2010 we will see massive protest in the uk , france, greece, spain and portugal.

Andrew33

ardmacha wrote: »

Even Cowan and co have some morality.

Do you reckon? I wouldn't be so sure.

PeakOutput

dean21 wrote: »

Back to 48% tax for the high paid
.

that wont raise near enough the only thing that will is bringing the lower paid into the tax net

also the goverment have always said the pay cuts for the ps will be coming over two budgets if they dont accept the croke park agreement then there will be huge cuts again

oppenheimer1

pfy2k wrote: »

I wonder will VAT slide back up again this year, maybe more then the 0.5 of a percent. 23-24pc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Minimum Wage reduced in addition to welfare by 5 to 10%. OAPs take a hit. Almost all capital spending projects that haven't been started put on hold apart from maintenance. Bringing more people into the tax bands as well.

I don't think they will go after the PS this time around, unless they go for redundancies.

Colonel Sanders

dean21 wrote: »

Back to 48% tax for the high paid

My marginal rate is already 54% (and I don't pay the highest level of income levy)

changes

RichardAnd wrote: »

Social welfare will, probably, be dropping down another few euros a week. Thing about this is, and this only recently occurred to me, if this Croke Park deal is accepted and PS wages are not cut then cutting social welfare payments would become very messy. I don't think many on the dole will easily accept a cut when state employees are "left alone".

But savings will be made in the PS by non replacment of staff and centralising functions like medical cards processing etc.

If they cut social welfare it will be because they are looking to make savings from that budget. I don't think the arguement could be made that because the PS do not get a pay reduction then the social welfare should not get cut either. They are both completely seperate.

If they really tighten up on welfare fraud then they could save many millions. Much tougher penalties would be a good start.

RichardAnd

changes wrote: »

But savings will be made in the PS by non replacment of staff and centralising functions like medical cards processing etc.

If they cut social welfare it will be because they are looking to make savings from that budget. I don't think the arguement could be made that because the PS do not get a pay reduction then the social welfare should not get cut either. They are both completely seperate.

If they really tighten up on welfare fraud then they could save many millions. Much tougher penalties would be a good start.

Oh I agree, money will be saved but what I actually meant was that is PS workers do not get their pay cut then people on the dole will be moaning. Think about it, your 200 euro a week becomes 180 euro a week whilst the civil servant next door doesn't take a cut. I'm not taking either side but I doubt it would be smooth sailing.

ardmacha

Oh I agree, money will be saved but what I actually meant was that is PS workers do not get their pay cut then people on the dole will be moaning.

Let people on the dole come up with restructuring proposals which will reduce the cost without cutting the rates.

RichardAnd

ardmacha wrote: »

Let people on the dole come up with restructuring proposals which will reduce the cost without cutting the rates.

I would imaging that 99% would answer "don't bail out the bankers!"

thebman

RichardAnd wrote: »

I would imaging that 99% would answer "don't bail out the bankers!"

You'd think they'd pay attention more with so much free time :P

johnnyjb

thebman wrote: »

You'd think they'd pay attention more with so much free time :P

We cant as were having it off with your sister

Stheno

dean21 wrote: »

Back to 48% tax for the high paid
wont touch PS as i think they are happy to have got away with the cuts without a all out strike and in 2010 we will see massive protest in the uk , france, greece, spain and portugal.

When you include PRSI and the income levy, it's already more than that for a lot of people earning good salaries.

I think they will further cut social welfare, and the minimum wage, bring more of the lower paid into the tax net, abolish the PRSI ceiling, introduce water charges, and consolidate PRSI and the income levy into a tiered payment dependant on level of income.

Mister men

Social welfare,OAP's,child allowance,community projects,special needs helpers will all suffer to keep the public service happy.

Nody

This is what I'd expect (not enough but that's for another debate)

• Another scaled reduction of salaries in PS
• A review of closing down/merging some quangos/departments with expected savings to the tune of 0.5 to 1 Billion savings a year (which will not be realized due to costs of the merge until 2013)
• Stopped capital projects (that are not funded by EU by at least 40%)
• Higher VAT rate on some lower/exempt products
• Higher tax on fuel
• Higher tax on alcohol and tobacco
• Water tax
• Small (<5%) reduction in social wellfare (general) with yet another bigger one for under 25s (~25 EUR a month)
• Bigger cuts in rent allowance and other social wellfare benefits with higher limits to qualify for them (with out affecting the serial children mothers who're making a living on it)
• Starting up fund created to start new Irish home grown companies (wasted quango money fund)
• mean tested children payments
• Lower tax credits bringing more people on to the tax system (still making it better to be on social wellfare though)
• Another 200 Million to FAS to help develop "a better trained work force" and get people on to "new exciting careers" via their different programs
• New top tax rate at 50k/75k area of 50% or increase of current top tax rate by 3 percent units
• Special one year only bonus tax of 50% ala UK (though will most likely be extended for more years)

Taxipete29

Nody wrote: »

This is what I'd expect (not enough but that's for another debate)

• Another scaled reduction of salaries in PS
• A review of closing down/merging some quangos/departments with expected savings to the tune of 0.5 to 1 Billion savings a year (which will not be realized due to costs of the merge until 2013)
• Stopped capital projects (that are not funded by EU by at least 40%)
• Higher VAT rate on some lower/exempt products
• Higher tax on fuel
• Higher tax on alcohol and tobacco
• Water tax
• Small (<5%) reduction in social wellfare (general) with yet another bigger one for under 25s (~25 EUR a month)
• Bigger cuts in rent allowance and other social wellfare benefits with higher limits to qualify for them (with out affecting the serial children mothers who're making a living on it)
• Starting up fund created to start new Irish home grown companies (wasted quango money fund)
• mean tested children payments
• Lower tax credits bringing more people on to the tax system (still making it better to be on social wellfare though)
• Another 200 Million to FAS to help develop "a better trained work force" and get people on to "new exciting careers" via their different programs
• New top tax rate at 50k/75k area of 50% or increase of current top tax rate by 3 percent units
• Special one year only bonus tax of 50% ala UK (though will most likely be extended for more years)

Seriously.

Higher tax on fuel when its already taxed to the hilt and too expensive, talk about anti-business.

Raising the tax on alcohol pushes more people over the border to purchase it and makes it profitable for people to bring it down in large consignments and sell it illegally

Raising tax on tobacco only increases profits for smugglers.

More money to FAS when the dogs on the street realise it is completely inadequate despite having massive budgets during a period of near full employment???

Means testing child benfit costs more than it saves according to the Govt. Doing something through the tax system would be more effective and less costly.

Capital spending is the one area its ok to borrow for and you want to cut it more?? Short term and long term thats a bad idea

Nody

Taxipete29 wrote: »

Seriously.

This was expectations of the 2011 Budget (see thread name); not what I might want to or not want to see in it.

And borrowing for capital spendings only work if you're economy is in order to borrow; the Irish is not.

If you wanted to see what I'd like to see it would be something along the lines of this and this is only part of it; numbers up for adjustment but will give you an idea:

• Reduced number of managers in all public/semi public departments by 35% (HSE 50%)
• Reduced salary for any PS/Semi public one above 35k by 5% every 10k
• A stand alone review of all salaries compared to private companies, inc. benefits and adjustment of all salaries accordingly over three years (up or down)
• Mandatory attendance in the dale inc. X number of days in sub committes as part of standard dale salary
• 75% cut in all Dale benefits across the board inc. a review of the last 10 years and harmonisation of cross payments (i.e. retirement payments while taking another job etc.)
• Social wellfare only to be paid out at current rate to person who has paid in at least 3 years of PRSI at full employment rate
• Social wellfare reduced by 20% this year and rent allowance and other benefits reduced by at least 30% after 1 year of social wellfare (or directly to this rate for someone who has not paid in three years of PRSI at full employment rate or equalent)
• Anyone on social wellfare for more then two years should have further cuts and forced relocation if needed
• Hire 20k to 50k people on the dole in the last year to review the application for any one on social wellfare for more then 2 years by unannounced personal visits several times through out the month
• Stop for benefit payments after child 3 (may be reviewed by court for rare circumstances of exception such as child who dies etc.)
• 10% cut of all budgets for all departments
• Lower minimum salary by 10%

mathie

It may not even be a 2011 budget ...

"Early budget may be needed to quell market fears as cost of borrowing soars for Ireland"

http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/may/09/mortgages-and-loans-to-go-up-after-greek-crisis/

ardmacha

# Reduced salary for any PS/Semi public one above 35k by 5% every 10k
# A stand alone review of all salaries compared to private companies, inc. benefits and adjustment of all salaries accordingly over three years (up or down)

These two objectives are contadictory. All of the CSO data showed that the pay gap between private and public was on average greatest at lower levels rather than higher ones.

Stop for benefit payments after child 3 (may be reviewed by court for rare circumstances of exception such as child who dies etc.)

There is no logic to this, as arguably people can readily afford 1 or 2 children without subsidy. If you intention is to have less children then this is effectively reducing the national pension fund.

Taxipete29

Nody wrote: »

Anyone on social wellfare for more then two years should have further cuts and forced relocation if needed

Relocate to where??? Canada, Australia, Spike Island :rolleyes:

97i9y3941

a crowd of monkeys could give a better budget than some of these folks in power,personally i think they should be taxing big "artists" like bono,enya,westlife,but of course that never happen :mad:

mathie

Fred83 wrote: »

a crowd of monkeys could give a better budget than some of these folks in power,personally i think they should be taxing big "artists" like bono,enya,westlife,but of course that never happen :mad:

Tax the rich and drive them out of the country FTW!

zootroid

Some measures I would like to see:

• Reduced tax credits in order to bring more people into the tax net
• Reduce the tax bands so more people are paying the higher rate of tax
• Income tax rates to remain unchanged
• Reduce VAT to 20%
• Reduce the dole by a further 10 euro a week at least
• Reduce the minimum wage by up to a euro
• Further cuts to the public sector wage bill, in order to bring salaries in line with the private sector
• Commitment to abolish defined benefit pension schemes for new public sector workers. Workers pay into a defined contribution scheme instead.
• Reduce children's allowance
• Reduce single parent allowance
• Re-introduction of third level fees by way of a student loan, repayable to the government once you find a job
• Abolish quangos identified in the report by an bord snip. In fact, not enough attention was paid to the report. Given how we are borrowing 20 billion a year, any area where we can save money should be pursued
• Scrap the carbon tax. There is little alternative for people who use their cars as public transport is so poor in this country, and petrol is already too expensive
• Reduce the subsidy paid to CIE, and introduce further competition to the market
• Increase the budget for capital expenditure
• Offer grants to improve insulation of houses, to make them more energy efficient and also to give the construction industry a boost
• I think excise duty on cigarettes and alcohol may have to be lowered in order to reduce the incentive to buy on the black market, and also to discourage smuggling. It will also reduce the incentive to shop in the North

Further reform of our political system:

• Reduce the number of TDs by at least 25%
• Reduce the salaries of TD's, ministers, and the Taoiseach. Reduce the salary of the President, she holds little responsibility anyway. A salary of 150k would be more than generous
• Change the rules regarding politicians pensions, each TD should only be able to claim one pension. If a politician was the Taoiseach, he can draw a Taoiseach's pension, if he were a minister, he can draw a minister's pension, but otherwise, he can only draw a TD's pension. Pensions can only be drawn once a TD retires from the Dail
• TD's can not hold onto teaching jobs. Changing career entails risk, and so politicians should be forced to give up teaching jobs once elected.
• I would like to see some mechanism by which TD's must vote a certain number of times, otherwise they forgo a portion of their salary, eg, vote on 80% of Dail votes. I think it's disgusting the Bertie is claiming a salary for doing nothing, not even voting, and instead travelling the world giving lectures to anyone stupid enough to pay him

We are borrowing a ridiculous amount of money just to pay for the states day to day activities. The interest we will pay on this is massive, and could be put to much better use had we our house in order. We would be able to borrow for investment purposes, rather than merely keeping the state going day to day

SeanW

What I think is likely to happen:

• Poor brought into the tax net by semi-flat rate social deductions on wages
• Reduction in capital spending
• Start of cost savings from the Croke Park Agreement, if that doesn't happen, more pay cuts.
• Some welfare payments to be cut by 10%
• Business taxes likely to remain unchanged.
• Some kind of noises about a 3rd level graduate tax.

What I do not want in this budget or any budget afterwards:

• Property Tax
• Increases in VAT
• ANY new or increased taxes on SMEs

ardmacha

Property taxes are part of the tax system in almost every nation. For an almost bankrupt State to ignore this source of revenue would be bizarre.

Nijmegen

ardmacha wrote: »

Property taxes are part of the tax system in almost every nation. For an almost bankrupt State to ignore this source of revenue would be bizarre.

The issue here isn't that they're a good tax system, the issue is that introducing them into an already struggling economy where we need increased liquidity and consumer spending is not a good idea.

Tipp Man

zootroid wrote: »

Some measures I would like to see:

• Re-introduction of third level fees by way of a student loan, repayable to the government once you find a job

I agreed with almost everything that you wrote but I just wanted to discuss the third level fees suggestion

I think that this may be a brilliant way of teaching our next generation the value of money and teach them about the ability to repay debt. So when a student graduates and get his first job he immediately starts repaying his student loan, this gives him a greater sense of responsibility for his own finances and gets him into the habit of actually making regualar repayments

It also means that he won't be in a mad rush to buy a house as it will take him a few years to clear the student loan and might actually make him realise that borrowing money isn't the be all and end all

However the big problem is how do you implement this in a society with a huge unemployment problem and a very long tradition of emigration, how do you get the money from the students who leave for OZ, USA, UK and have no intention of paying it back

RichardAnd

Tipp Man wrote: »

I agreed with almost everything that you wrote but I just wanted to discuss the third level fees suggestion

I think that this may be a brilliant way of teaching our next generation the value of money and teach them about the ability to repay debt. So when a student graduates and get his first job he immediately starts repaying his student loan, this gives him a greater sense of responsibility for his own finances and gets him into the habit of actually making regualar repayments

It also means that he won't be in a mad rush to buy a house as it will take him a few years to clear the student loan and might actually make him realise that borrowing money isn't the be all and end all

However the big problem is how do you implement this in a society with a huge unemployment problem and a very long tradition of emigration, how do you get the money from the students who leave for OZ, USA, UK and have no intention of paying it back

That was my thought too and in fact, I think that if a loop hole like this was open, it would actually encourage people to emigrate to avoid repaying their debts.

I'd imagine there are serious legal issues with taxing someone's income when when they are earning outside of the state, if this is even possible at all.

This is why I believe that student fees will be re introduced as they were back in the day, the prospective student pays his fee directly to the university. If he doesn't have the money, he could borrow it from a private lender and that way, if he jumps ship so to speak, he wouldn't be able to dodge the debt.