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UK Election Megathread - Countdown to polling

  • 04-05-2010 09:40PM
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,957 ✭✭✭


    Hi all,

    Loads of threads around about this. Might be good to get everything into the one thread for the last 48hours of the campaign.

    Its been a really entertaining election to date and I am giddy looking forward to the results coming in late Thursday/early Friday.


    Anyways, back to current event.

    This evenings poll by Yougov is in. It makes grim reading for the Lib Dems

    Conservative: 35% (unchanged)
    Labour: 30% (+ 2)
    Lib Dem:24% (-4)
    Others: 11% (+2)

    As election day dawns has the Lib Dems bubble burst? The polls have been creeping down steadily over the last week, but 24% would be a real disappointment.

    If that YouGov were to be a replicated the BBC estimates the seats like this:

    Labour 291
    Conservative 262
    Lib Dem: 68
    Others: 29

    The magic number is 326. The Tories/Liberals would be at 330 combined. Prob too close for a effective coalition. Labour/Liberal would be the only viable option on these figures.

    Interesting times!


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭evercloserunion


    I like that poll. Unfortunate for the Lib Dems, people seem to think they peaked too early. Also Clegg didn't shine as brightly in the last leaders' debate as he had in the others. Personally I really like the Lib Dems as a party but Clegg annoys the hell out of me, he is so fake.

    I will be considering any seat not lost by Labour to be a victory, and any seat lost by Labour to the Lib Dems to be a semi-victory. In other words, come on anyone but the Tories/BNP/UKIP. Wouldn't have been a big fan of Labour at the beginning of the campaign but Gordo has wooed me with his brilliance :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭danman


    Did I see a headline today where DC has ruled out a coalition with the Lib Dems?
    Guardian I think?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,737 ✭✭✭BroomBurner


    Cameron is going to try to get the DUP to get in to bed with them in power. Cue simmering unrest in the North if the Tories get in to power.

    Interesting papers tomorrow. The Independent has said that this is the electorate's chance to vote for real change in the voting system. Make of that what you want. They have been the only paper sticking by their name.

    The Daily Mail has come out with "Vote Decisively" but doesn't exactly say for who, instead goes on a rambling note of hatred for hung parliments, etc.

    I sincerely hope the people in the UK haven't been bowled over by Data Cameron and vote Conservative :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,778 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Tories absolutely certain to be the largest party imo, though I think they will end up short of an overall majority, and will lead, imo, a minority Gov for a number of months before another election.

    Thats my call on it at the moment.

    All tonights Polls

    YouGov CON 35 LAB 30 LD 24
    ComRes CON 37 LAB 29 LD 27
    Harris CON 36 LAB 26 LD 28


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    itv.com tell me I'm a tory voter, but I really like Nick Clegg...what should I do? Ms Mills?...anyone...????

    (Referencing the Times prob means I would vote Tory)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,737 ✭✭✭BroomBurner


    efb wrote: »
    itv.com tell me I'm a tory voter, but I really like Nick Clegg...what should I do? Ms Mills?...anyone...????

    (Referencing the Times prob means I would vote Tory)

    :eek: A Times reader that likes Nick Clegg?! Didn't you listen to Messers Murdoch and Murdoch?

    There was a good link on the Guardian for an independent website that could tell you how you may be inclined to vote. I'll try to find it, if Mike65 doesn't!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    :eek: A Times reader that likes Nick Clegg?! Didn't you listen to Messers Murdoch and Murdoch?

    There was a good link on the Guardian for an independent website that could tell you how you may be inclined to vote. I'll try to find it, if Mike65 doesn't!

    Maybe just reading Style Magazine and the Sports sectioning ignoring the main paper probably makes me a soft tory, and open to persuasion, or classic tory denial... one or the other!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 784 ✭✭✭Anonymous1987


    IMO Labour look like they are in for a disastrous election, Tories look like big winners might even manage a majority and Lib Dem's won't do as well as it looked like earlier in the election.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,737 ✭✭✭BroomBurner


    www.votematch.org.uk is the website.

    I didn't think I'd ever hear the word 'soft' followed by 'Tory'!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,729 ✭✭✭Pride Fighter


    If the Labour swing continues like Eurokraut has posted Labour could get back in on a slender majority even with less of the national vote that the Tories.

    I'd like to see Brown continue. He is a doing a good job. The UK economy compares somewhat to our own. They had a big housing boom too and had their problems. Only with excellent leadership Brown has gotten the UK back to growth and the jobless figures are way better than here. The Tories are a disaster, if they got in Northern Ireland would destabilise and the economy would shrink with savage cuts.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    Conservative Party:
    53%
    Liberal Democrats:
    49%
    Labour Party:
    43%
    Best Match

    Where do I get the words to Jerusalem?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,630 ✭✭✭steelcityblues


    Worth posting this!

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8609989.stm


    Originally tried this over a week ago, but have changed my results now

    I got: Con 34% Lib Dem: 27.8% Lab: 24.7% Others: 13.5%

    Seats: Con 295 Lab 236 Lib Dem 90 Others 29


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,957 ✭✭✭Euro_Kraut


    In a shocking turn off events David Cameron has been enforced by the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,487 ✭✭✭banquo


    Euro_Kraut wrote: »
    In a shocking turn off events David Cameron has been enforced by the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph.

    ''Stunned silence''

    :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,002 ✭✭✭bijapos


    personally hope its a hung parliament and the LibDems get to change what is a ridiculous voting system.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    bijapos wrote: »
    personally hope its a hung parliament and the LibDems get to change what is a ridiculous voting system.
    "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the other types we've tried," as one former Prime Minister put it.

    Their system has the advantage of producing majorities, which there is something to be said for, depending on the majority. That being said, Germany has also done well with a system specifically designed to generate coalition governments, the party list system.

    So long as they don't come our 'special' PP way of doing things, I suppose... But Britain is one of (if not the?) worlds oldest democratic countries, and they're not done too badly off of their current system and I can see why they would hesitate to want to leave it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,002 ✭✭✭bijapos


    Nijmegen: At the 2005 General Election. Labour got 35% of the vote but 55% of the seats, Lib Dem got 22% of the vote and 10% of the seats.

    Its hardly representative is it?

    I dont think the German system is deliberatly set up for a coalition, its the way the people vote, but it reflects the vote percentage fairly accuratly.


    Results of 05 are here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,315 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the other types we've tried," as one former Prime Minister put it.

    Their system has the advantage of producing majorities, which there is something to be said for, depending on the majority. That being said, Germany has also done well with a system specifically designed to generate coalition governments, the party list system.

    So long as they don't come our 'special' PP way of doing things, I suppose... But Britain is one of (if not the?) worlds oldest democratic countries, and they're not done too badly off of their current system and I can see why they would hesitate to want to leave it.

    Play around with the predictor on the BBC, one of the polls out today would give Labour an overall majority with 6% less of the vote than the tories. Ironic that people were making fun of the Yanks' electoral college 10 years ago.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    www.votematch.org.uk is the website.

    Gives me 53% blue, 52% yellow and 27% red. I think I may have confused their system with giving opposite answers to similar questions at points
    Worth posting this!

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8609989.stm


    Originally tried this over a week ago, but have changed my results now

    I got: Con 34% Lib Dem: 27.8% Lab: 24.7% Others: 13.5%

    Seats: Con 295 Lab 236 Lib Dem 90 Others 29

    That is daft how biased the constituencies are towards the Labour against LibDem, or are the Lib voters just more spread out around the country and not in the same area such that would get them more seats?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Lib Dems are spread thinly compared to labour who are after all overwhelmingly urban, and northern in particular.

    The last poll of polls

    05_PollofPolls.jpg

    Seats using adjusted national swing method (assuming no tactical voting which could be a big assumption)

    05_AdjustedNationalSwing.jpg


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,315 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Aye, Lib Dems have more "general" support through the country. The Tories on the other hand are still hated in vast swathes of the North.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Hi Guys, is there anywhere where i can get detailed pooling results for all parties including the other parties, most of the polls only give you the major 3 and then say other. The reason i ask is because im looking to have a bet on the B.N.P as to the number of votes they get but i cant get details on how they are polling.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,315 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Hi Guys, is there anywhere where i can get detailed pooling results for all parties including the other parties, most of the polls only give you the major 3 and then say other. The reason i ask is because im looking to have a bet on the B.N.P as to the number of votes they get but i cant get details on how they are polling.

    No harm but I don't think the polls will help, they're on ~1000 people and they're likely to get less than a percent or two which will barely show up in polls. Also fewer people will admit that they're going to vote for them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    bijapos wrote: »
    Nijmegen: At the 2005 General Election. Labour got 35% of the vote but 55% of the seats, Lib Dem got 22% of the vote and 10% of the seats.

    Its hardly representative is it?

    I dont think the German system is deliberatly set up for a coalition, its the way the people vote, but it reflects the vote percentage fairly accuratly.


    Results of 05 are here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005
    The German system is indeed deliverately set up to prevent one party amassing huge power. At one point, in West Germany, when the two largest parties came together in coalition and got the magic 2/3 majority in the Bundestag to make constitutional reforms, including introducing emergency powers, there was a significant backlash. Germany is sensitive to both single party rule (as in, one party with a majority) and the ability of a single party to introduce what laws it wishes.

    The UK, despite these results looking skewed, has never had this problem. Britain has, more or less, been on a steady path of increasing democratic inclusion since the founding of democracy there. From abolishing slavery and widening the groups who can vote through to devolving power to the likes of Wales and Scotland, nobody can argue that Britain is not a country where the will of the people is heard.

    I think there is something to be said for majorities versus coalitions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,778 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    The UK, despite these results looking skewed, has never had this problem. Britain has, more or less, been on a steady path of increasing democratic inclusion since the founding of democracy there. From abolishing slavery and widening the groups who can vote through to devolving power to the likes of Wales and Scotland, nobody can argue that Britain is not a country where the will of the people is heard.

    I think there is something to be said for majorities versus coalitions.

    If Labour weren't polling quite as pathetically as they are atm, there was a good chance they could have come 3rd in the popular vote up to 8% behind the Tories and still been the biggest party. Clearly that's not very democratic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    Inquitus wrote: »
    If Labour weren't polling quite as pathetically as they are atm, there was a good chance they could have come 3rd in the popular vote up to 8% behind the Tories and still been the biggest party. Clearly that's not very democratic.
    That depends on what it is you're looking for from it. According to the orginal democracy, our system isn't very democratic whatsoever, without meetings where we can all attend and take votes on every issue.

    The British system is democratic. The parliament looks less like ours in terms of its proportion of MP's to % of vote, but then again their MP's, particularly ministers, are less beholden to parish pump politics than our lot, something we complain about rightly and bitterly in this country.

    It produces majorities, there are clear swings between the main parties - the lib dems are the successors to a party that ruled Britain before the first world war and nobody can argue that labour and the tories haven't changed the keys to number 10 on enough occasions after the second war - and most of all, the country is run on highly democratic principals whilst maintaining an effective government system.

    If you think that coalitions are good - and there is an argument that they can work, vis a vis Germany, and an argument that they don't, vis a vis Italy - then you're right, it's the wrong system.

    But if, like me, you prefer majority governments for the sake of getting things done, I'd say their system is good.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,315 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    But if, like me, you prefer majority governments for the sake of getting things done, I'd say their system is good.

    I'd agree only if winning the popular vote guaranteed having the most seats, but it doesn't.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    I hope the conservatives get in and my family will be voting them!! Oh and the uup are joined are joined with the conservatives not that bigoted dup!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,957 ✭✭✭The Volt


    Voting Conservative because you're angry with Labour is like sawing your balls off because your trousers are too tight.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    The fact that 24% of the vote would only get the Lib Dems 68 seats is ridiculous. The electoral system over there is sooo messed up.


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