UK Election Megathread - Countdown to polling

Euro_Kraut

Hi all,

Loads of threads around about this. Might be good to get everything into the one thread for the last 48hours of the campaign.

Its been a really entertaining election to date and I am giddy looking forward to the results coming in late Thursday/early Friday.


Anyways, back to current event.

This evenings poll by Yougov is in. It makes grim reading for the Lib Dems

Conservative: 35% (unchanged)
Labour: 30% (+ 2)
Lib Dem:24% (-4)
Others: 11% (+2)

As election day dawns has the Lib Dems bubble burst? The polls have been creeping down steadily over the last week, but 24% would be a real disappointment.

If that YouGov were to be a replicated the BBC estimates the seats like this:

Labour 291
Conservative 262
Lib Dem: 68
Others: 29

The magic number is 326. The Tories/Liberals would be at 330 combined. Prob too close for a effective coalition. Labour/Liberal would be the only viable option on these figures.

Interesting times!

evercloserunion

I like that poll. Unfortunate for the Lib Dems, people seem to think they peaked too early. Also Clegg didn't shine as brightly in the last leaders' debate as he had in the others. Personally I really like the Lib Dems as a party but Clegg annoys the hell out of me, he is so fake.

I will be considering any seat not lost by Labour to be a victory, and any seat lost by Labour to the Lib Dems to be a semi-victory. In other words, come on anyone but the Tories/BNP/UKIP. Wouldn't have been a big fan of Labour at the beginning of the campaign but Gordo has wooed me with his brilliance :P

danman

Did I see a headline today where DC has ruled out a coalition with the Lib Dems?
Guardian I think?

BroomBurner

Cameron is going to try to get the DUP to get in to bed with them in power. Cue simmering unrest in the North if the Tories get in to power.

Interesting papers tomorrow. The Independent has said that this is the electorate's chance to vote for real change in the voting system. Make of that what you want. They have been the only paper sticking by their name.

The Daily Mail has come out with "Vote Decisively" but doesn't exactly say for who, instead goes on a rambling note of hatred for hung parliments, etc.

I sincerely hope the people in the UK haven't been bowled over by Data Cameron and vote Conservative

Inquitus

Tories absolutely certain to be the largest party imo, though I think they will end up short of an overall majority, and will lead, imo, a minority Gov for a number of months before another election.

Thats my call on it at the moment.

All tonights Polls

YouGov CON 35 LAB 30 LD 24
ComRes CON 37 LAB 29 LD 27
Harris CON 36 LAB 26 LD 28

efb

itv.com tell me I'm a tory voter, but I really like Nick Clegg...what should I do? Ms Mills?...anyone...????

(Referencing the Times prob means I would vote Tory)

BroomBurner

efb wrote: »

itv.com tell me I'm a tory voter, but I really like Nick Clegg...what should I do? Ms Mills?...anyone...????

(Referencing the Times prob means I would vote Tory)

:eek: A Times reader that likes Nick Clegg?! Didn't you listen to Messers Murdoch and Murdoch?

There was a good link on the Guardian for an independent website that could tell you how you may be inclined to vote. I'll try to find it, if Mike65 doesn't!

efb

BroomBurner wrote: »

:eek: A Times reader that likes Nick Clegg?! Didn't you listen to Messers Murdoch and Murdoch?

There was a good link on the Guardian for an independent website that could tell you how you may be inclined to vote. I'll try to find it, if Mike65 doesn't!

Maybe just reading Style Magazine and the Sports sectioning ignoring the main paper probably makes me a soft tory, and open to persuasion, or classic tory denial... one or the other!

Anonymous1987

IMO Labour look like they are in for a disastrous election, Tories look like big winners might even manage a majority and Lib Dem's won't do as well as it looked like earlier in the election.

BroomBurner

www.votematch.org.uk is the website.

I didn't think I'd ever hear the word 'soft' followed by 'Tory'!

Pride Fighter

If the Labour swing continues like Eurokraut has posted Labour could get back in on a slender majority even with less of the national vote that the Tories.

I'd like to see Brown continue. He is a doing a good job. The UK economy compares somewhat to our own. They had a big housing boom too and had their problems. Only with excellent leadership Brown has gotten the UK back to growth and the jobless figures are way better than here. The Tories are a disaster, if they got in Northern Ireland would destabilise and the economy would shrink with savage cuts.

efb

Conservative Party:
53%
Liberal Democrats:
49%
Labour Party:
43%
Best Match

Where do I get the words to Jerusalem?

steelcityblues

Worth posting this!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8609989.stm


Originally tried this over a week ago, but have changed my results now

I got: Con 34% Lib Dem: 27.8% Lab: 24.7% Others: 13.5%

Seats: Con 295 Lab 236 Lib Dem 90 Others 29

Euro_Kraut

In a shocking turn off events David Cameron has been enforced by the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph.

banquo

Euro_Kraut wrote: »

In a shocking turn off events David Cameron has been enforced by the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph.

''Stunned silence''

:pac:

bijapos

personally hope its a hung parliament and the LibDems get to change what is a ridiculous voting system.

Nijmegen

bijapos wrote: »

personally hope its a hung parliament and the LibDems get to change what is a ridiculous voting system.

"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the other types we've tried," as one former Prime Minister put it.

Their system has the advantage of producing majorities, which there is something to be said for, depending on the majority. That being said, Germany has also done well with a system specifically designed to generate coalition governments, the party list system.

So long as they don't come our 'special' PP way of doing things, I suppose... But Britain is one of (if not the?) worlds oldest democratic countries, and they're not done too badly off of their current system and I can see why they would hesitate to want to leave it.

bijapos

Nijmegen: At the 2005 General Election. Labour got 35% of the vote but 55% of the seats, Lib Dem got 22% of the vote and 10% of the seats.

Its hardly representative is it?

I dont think the German system is deliberatly set up for a coalition, its the way the people vote, but it reflects the vote percentage fairly accuratly.


Results of 05 are here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005

amacachi

Nijmegen wrote: »

"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the other types we've tried," as one former Prime Minister put it.

Their system has the advantage of producing majorities, which there is something to be said for, depending on the majority. That being said, Germany has also done well with a system specifically designed to generate coalition governments, the party list system.

So long as they don't come our 'special' PP way of doing things, I suppose... But Britain is one of (if not the?) worlds oldest democratic countries, and they're not done too badly off of their current system and I can see why they would hesitate to want to leave it.

Play around with the predictor on the BBC, one of the polls out today would give Labour an overall majority with 6% less of the vote than the tories. Ironic that people were making fun of the Yanks' electoral college 10 years ago.

robinph

BroomBurner wrote: »

www.votematch.org.uk is the website.

Gives me 53% blue, 52% yellow and 27% red. I think I may have confused their system with giving opposite answers to similar questions at points

steelcityblues wrote: »

Worth posting this!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8609989.stm


Originally tried this over a week ago, but have changed my results now

I got: Con 34% Lib Dem: 27.8% Lab: 24.7% Others: 13.5%

Seats: Con 295 Lab 236 Lib Dem 90 Others 29

That is daft how biased the constituencies are towards the Labour against LibDem, or are the Lib voters just more spread out around the country and not in the same area such that would get them more seats?

mike65

Lib Dems are spread thinly compared to labour who are after all overwhelmingly urban, and northern in particular.

The last poll of polls



Seats using adjusted national swing method (assuming no tactical voting which could be a big assumption)

amacachi

Aye, Lib Dems have more "general" support through the country. The Tories on the other hand are still hated in vast swathes of the North.

JONJO THE MISER

Hi Guys, is there anywhere where i can get detailed pooling results for all parties including the other parties, most of the polls only give you the major 3 and then say other. The reason i ask is because im looking to have a bet on the B.N.P as to the number of votes they get but i cant get details on how they are polling.

amacachi

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Hi Guys, is there anywhere where i can get detailed pooling results for all parties including the other parties, most of the polls only give you the major 3 and then say other. The reason i ask is because im looking to have a bet on the B.N.P as to the number of votes they get but i cant get details on how they are polling.

No harm but I don't think the polls will help, they're on ~1000 people and they're likely to get less than a percent or two which will barely show up in polls. Also fewer people will admit that they're going to vote for them.

Nijmegen

bijapos wrote: »

Nijmegen: At the 2005 General Election. Labour got 35% of the vote but 55% of the seats, Lib Dem got 22% of the vote and 10% of the seats.

Its hardly representative is it?

I dont think the German system is deliberatly set up for a coalition, its the way the people vote, but it reflects the vote percentage fairly accuratly.


Results of 05 are here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005

The German system is indeed deliverately set up to prevent one party amassing huge power. At one point, in West Germany, when the two largest parties came together in coalition and got the magic 2/3 majority in the Bundestag to make constitutional reforms, including introducing emergency powers, there was a significant backlash. Germany is sensitive to both single party rule (as in, one party with a majority) and the ability of a single party to introduce what laws it wishes.

The UK, despite these results looking skewed, has never had this problem. Britain has, more or less, been on a steady path of increasing democratic inclusion since the founding of democracy there. From abolishing slavery and widening the groups who can vote through to devolving power to the likes of Wales and Scotland, nobody can argue that Britain is not a country where the will of the people is heard.

I think there is something to be said for majorities versus coalitions.

Inquitus

Nijmegen wrote: »

The UK, despite these results looking skewed, has never had this problem. Britain has, more or less, been on a steady path of increasing democratic inclusion since the founding of democracy there. From abolishing slavery and widening the groups who can vote through to devolving power to the likes of Wales and Scotland, nobody can argue that Britain is not a country where the will of the people is heard.

I think there is something to be said for majorities versus coalitions.

If Labour weren't polling quite as pathetically as they are atm, there was a good chance they could have come 3rd in the popular vote up to 8% behind the Tories and still been the biggest party. Clearly that's not very democratic.

Nijmegen

Inquitus wrote: »

If Labour weren't polling quite as pathetically as they are atm, there was a good chance they could have come 3rd in the popular vote up to 8% behind the Tories and still been the biggest party. Clearly that's not very democratic.

That depends on what it is you're looking for from it. According to the orginal democracy, our system isn't very democratic whatsoever, without meetings where we can all attend and take votes on every issue.

The British system is democratic. The parliament looks less like ours in terms of its proportion of MP's to % of vote, but then again their MP's, particularly ministers, are less beholden to parish pump politics than our lot, something we complain about rightly and bitterly in this country.

It produces majorities, there are clear swings between the main parties - the lib dems are the successors to a party that ruled Britain before the first world war and nobody can argue that labour and the tories haven't changed the keys to number 10 on enough occasions after the second war - and most of all, the country is run on highly democratic principals whilst maintaining an effective government system.

If you think that coalitions are good - and there is an argument that they can work, vis a vis Germany, and an argument that they don't, vis a vis Italy - then you're right, it's the wrong system.

But if, like me, you prefer majority governments for the sake of getting things done, I'd say their system is good.

amacachi

Nijmegen wrote: »

But if, like me, you prefer majority governments for the sake of getting things done, I'd say their system is good.

I'd agree only if winning the popular vote guaranteed having the most seats, but it doesn't.

owenc

I hope the conservatives get in and my family will be voting them!! Oh and the uup are joined are joined with the conservatives not that bigoted dup!!!

The Volt

Voting Conservative because you're angry with Labour is like sawing your balls off because your trousers are too tight.

thetonynator

The fact that 24% of the vote would only get the Lib Dems 68 seats is ridiculous. The electoral system over there is sooo messed up.

JONJO THE MISER

amacachi wrote: »

No harm but I don't think the polls will help, they're on ~1000 people and they're likely to get less than a percent or two which will barely show up in polls. Also fewer people will admit that they're going to vote for them.

Im looking at betting that the B.N.P get over 1 million votes at 5/1 am i mad to think they will get this? i was going for 500-1million but the odds have gone too short, not that i want the B.N.P to get much support but i think they will get some and i might as well make a profit out of it.

ejmaztec

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Im looking at betting that the B.N.P get over 1 million votes at 5/1 am i mad to think they will get this? i was going for 500-1million but the odds have gone too short, not that i want the B.N.P to get much support but i think they will get some and i might as well make a profit out of it.

Just in from the Murdoch Rag No. 1.:eek: What odds now?


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7116654.ece


The British National Party has been plunged into further internal turmoil after the head of its online operation resigned and took the website down with him.
Simon Bennett, 41, directed BNP traffic to his personal website, which contained a lengthy diatribe against Nick Griffin, the leader of the far-right party, and other senior figures.
A day before the general election, Mr Bennett painted a picture of an amateur operation and an organisation which he claimed wasted membership fees and donations.
He accused Mr Griffin and James Dowson, the BNP’s election fundraiser, of being “pathetic, desperate and incompetent” and said it had been a “nightmare” to work with them.
Mr Bennett wrote: “This will do doubt [sic] come as a shock to many of those that read this, particularly those who really don’t want to hear it.
“However, I have a duty to the members and my conscience, but most of all to my wife and children, to tell the truth behind the spin.”
It is understood that Mr Bennett took the website down briefly yesterday afternoon. It was reactivated quickly, but his comments had already gone viral on a number of websites.
The BNP has been beset by infighting on the election trail.
Earlier this month Mr Griffin was faced with an alleged plot by BNP officials to overthrow the leadership. He told police that a colleague had threatened to kill him.
In the latest setback to the campaign, Mr Bennett expressed anger about being left up “the proverbial creek” over the Marmite scandal, in which the BNP was served with an injunction by the food brand’s owners after it used Marmite images in an online political broadcast.
He wrote in his posting: “I had warned them [Griffin and Dowson] not to proceed, but both were insistent that this is a brilliant publicity stunt.”
Mr Griffin had claimed that a “joker” had inserted the images into the broadcast, which the BNP was forced to remove from its site.
Mr Bennett also said that he had been physically threatened over disagreements relating to the website and said he would call the police if they continued.
He is seeking reimbursement for aspects of its design and content which he claims to own.
Mr Griffin hung up on The Times when approached for comment this morning.
His campaign woes increased this afternoon when he was pelted with tomatoes as he campaigned in Barking, where he hopes to unseat Margaret Hodge, the Labour incumbent.
When a group of young men noticed the BNP leader going from door to door, they went into a grocery store and bought tomatoes. Mr Griffin escaped in his car but not before he, and the vehicle, were hit.

robinph

I'd hope the BNP loose most of their deposits, unfortunately they probably won't and could come close to actually getting a seat even. :eek:

If they do get a seat then just have to hope that they make a fool of themselves as much as possible.

mike65

ejmaztec wrote: »

When a group of young men noticed the BNP leader going from door to door, they went into a grocery store and bought tomatoes. Mr Griffin escaped in his car but not before he, and the vehicle, were hit.

Excellent!

BroomBurner

The BNP have also ben caught using racial profling to target people in one area. They searched through the electoral role for names of peope that sounded African and sent them a letter about how Gordon Brown and Labour were betraying Christians. They also claimed that the BNP were not racist or against any kind of ethnic group of people, they were just simple Christians, disgusted with what Brown has done.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/may/05/bnp-barking-election-leaflet

evercloserunion

Earlier this month Mr Griffin was faced with an alleged plot by BNP officials to overthrow the leadership. He told police that a colleague had threatened to kill him.

Lovely chaps altogether, why wouldn't anyone want them running the UK.

ejmaztec

mike65 wrote: »

Excellent!

It's a pity they weren't tinned.

BroomBurner

Anyone else do the votematch? Curiousity got the better of me, regardless of not being able to vote there.

LibDems - 68%
Greens - 59%
Labour - 47%
Conservative - 30%

No great surprises, and proud to see the Evil Ones down at 30%

thetonynator

Yeah, UKIP was first for me, then Lib dems and greens.

Euro_Kraut

I did the Telegraph one and got:

Lib Dem
Greens
Labour
UKIP
BNP
Tory

I guess I probably knew the policies in advance so knew what question to pick. The exercise doesn't really work if you know the various party polices.

mike65

Latest, indeed the last polls are in -

Guardian

Tonight's special poll – based on a sample double the normal size – predicted that Conservative support would be slightly above 36%, up three on the most recent Guardian/ICM poll but the same as another ICM poll published on Sunday.

That is eight points ahead of Labour, on 28%, identical to the last ICM poll. The Lib Dems have fallen back slightly to 26%, down two. Other parties are on 10%, including Ukip on 3%, the BNP on 2% and Greens on 1%, with support for the Welsh and Scottish nationalists at 3%. The tight race looks set to increase turnout, with 69% of respondents saying they are certain to vote. To the intense frustration of Labour cabinet ministers, Clegg has limited his options by saying that if one party secures the largest share of the vote and most seats, they will have a mandate to try to form a government. On the Guardian share of the vote, and a uniform national swing, the Conservatives would win 283 seats, Labour 253 and the Liberal Democrats 81.

owenc

i got...

Liberal Democrats:
48%

Conservative Party:
37%

Labour Party:
33%

well at least the conservatives are near top thank god that labour is at the bottom!!

BroomBurner

Ah, Owenc, 37% being near the top Admit it, you're a true liberal at heart!

There was a poll carried out by the Sun yesterday, finding out how many people would be dismayed with each of the leaders. Cameron came an overwhelming 1st in terms of people feeling dismayed if he became PM. The most positive result was for Nick Clegg.

Naturally, the Sun played this down...

ejmaztec

owenc wrote: »

i got...

Liberal Democrats:
48%

Conservative Party:
37%

Labour Party:
33%

well at least the conservatives are near top thank god that labour is at the bottom!!

If you think Labour's bad, you wait until you experience true horror when the Tories have removed their bogus caring-sharing faces, and are running the show.:eek:

A Dub in Glasgo

I'm torn between voting SNP or LD tomorrow

Anonymous1987

BroomBurner wrote: »

www.votematch.org.uk is the website.

Conservatives 41%
Liberal Democrats 35%
Labour Party 19%
I'm not really too familiar with each parties policies, just catch bits here and there so this is fairly surprising especially at how low Labour were ranked . In my defence the Lib-Dem ranking isn't very far behind the nasty party so I guess I have a conscience at least some of the time!

bijapos

Lib Dem 63%
Green 51%
Labour 50%

Haven't read any of the manifestos, surprised I was so high for Lib Dem. My uncle lived in London for 43 years, a diehard LibDem, he always said I was one at heart. :rolleyes:

Euro_Kraut

Today's YouGov poll put the Libdems back up 4%. Pretty crazy polling. Not sure its realistic to think that a party populatity could vary that much in a day.

Interesting that people were talking about the UK system Vs the German. If we were to run the follow figures into the German seat calculator:

CON 36%
LAB 28%
LIBDEM 28%
Others 8%

The seats would look like this - for comparison I have put the equivalent based on the Skynews seat calculator in bold.

CON 254 (284)
Lab 198 (253)
Lib Dem 198 (81)
Others 0 (32)

So basically the Tories would end up with 30 less seats, Labour would lose 55 and the LibDems would would gain over 100 seats!!

As no minor party would get above 5% threshold the would not enter parliament.

So basically the big winners from the German system would be the Lib Dems and the big losers would be the Labour Party and the small parties.

Euro_Kraut

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I'm torn between voting SNP or LD tomorrow

Do either have a realistic chance of winning the constituency you live in? I'm guessing in Glasgow that Labour are probably pretty strong. Only Glasgow South East is really in play. If you live there it probably worth voting Lib Dem.

Otherwise I suppose you gotta trust your gut I suppose! I can understand your predicament. If I lived in Scotland I would be drawn to the SNP too. If I lived in England I would be a definite Lib Dem though.

Hamlet.

Very surprised there's not more posts in this thread. Huge day tomorrow.



The Sun going all out tomorrow it seems.