Nic's Footy Picks

ValueSeeker

Continued from thread: " Football Tips From The Pro"

Bets will be mainly from the goal index, corners and goalscorer markets (fixed odds). Selections I see value in - some longshots, some shorter prices.

(Unit/pts scale 1-5, % = my estimated approx win expectation of value bet)

Picks so far:

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Man City v Aston Villa

Must win game for Villa if they want 4th spot meaning they will have to come out and attack. Seeing as they play with no real defensive midfielder, this could severly open up the game. Add the pace of Bellamy, Tevez, Agbonlahor, Carew and the likes and we could see some goals today. I fancy Tevez (who could be playing as the focal point of attack due to a thigh injury worry for Adebayor) to take advantage of this space and continue his fantastic goal scoring run and stay in the chase for the Top scorer award.

Selections offering value (unit scale 1-5, % = my estimated approx win exp)

-1.75pts Carlos Tevez anytime scorer @ 2.58 (Betfair), 55%
- 3pts over 2.5 goals @ 1.87 (Betfair), 65-70%

Bet 1 = win (1 goal, pen)
Bet 2 = win (3:1)

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Villarreal v Barcelona

Villarreal of late have been playing avery offensive game, pushing their line up and often playing all 3 of Nilmar, Rossi and Llorente from the start. Barcelona play the same type of game and will leave a lot of space in behind. If Rossi starts, expect him to break the offside and maybe find himself with a 1 on 1 at some stage. For me, 16/5 represents big value on a Rossi goal tonight.

Selection offering value: (unit scale 1-5, % = my estimated win expectation)
Bet: 1.25pts Rossi anytime scorer @ 16/5 (Bwin), 40%

Bet = Lose (no goal)

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Sevilla v Atletico

Dress rehearsal for the big Spanish cup final although Flores has said he may rest some big players. That may mean starts for Salvio(Fresh off a brace last weekend) or Ibrahima, either of whom are well capable of scoring against a likely to be unproteced Sevilla defense. Sevilla have reverted to their old attacking style since Jiminez got the chop and I can see this one being open and having a few goals with Sevilla pushing for the CL spot.

Selection offering value (unit scale 1-5, % = my estimated win exp)

2.75pts goal line over 2.75 @ 1.81 (betdaq)

Bet = Win (3:1)


Record so far:

Total Staked: 8.75pts | Total Returned: 15.11pts | Profit: +6.36pts

ValueSeeker

NOTE: For the records in this thread, all 'anytime goalscorer' goal scorer selections that do not start, will be deemed non runners, whether they are with a firm that automatically void non starters or a firm that rob your money

ValueSeeker

Manchester City v Spurs

A must win game for City tomorrow night meaning an offensive approach. This means possible space in behind their defense, space which can be exploited by an on fire and lightning quick Bale and possibly Aaron Lennon starting on the other side. They should create chances for Jermain Defoe who will face Martin Fulop (brought in as cover for Given) who looked extremely nervous at the weekend. 11/5 is good value on a goal for Defoe.

Selection offering value:

1.5pts Jermaine Defoe anytime scorer @ 11/5 (coral), 40-45%

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Manchester City v Spurs

A must win game for City tomorrow night meaning an offensive approach. This means possible space in behind their defense, space which can be exploited by an on fire and lightning quick Bale and possibly Aaron Lennon starting on the other side. They should create chances for Jermain Defoe who will face Martin Fulop (brought in as cover for Given) who looked extremely nervous at the weekend. 11/5 is good value on a goal for Defoe.

Selection offering value:

1.5pts Jermaine Defoe anytime scorer @ 11/5 (coral), 40-45%

Bet = Lose

ValueSeeker

Sevilla v Barcelona

Both managers have said they will be out to attack and get all 3 points in what is potentially 1 of the games of the Spanish season. Both need 3 points to keep their goals in their own hands (Sevilla for the CL, Barca for the league). Sevilla are back to their attacking Style under their new coach and Barca always put emphasis on attack. Should be an open game. Fabiano tipped to feature after injury.

Bet offering value

2.25pts over 3.5 goals @ 5/4 (Exchanges)

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Sevilla v Barcelona

Both managers have said they will be out to attack and get all 3 points in what is potentially 1 of the games of the Spanish season. Both need 3 points to keep their goals in their own hands (Sevilla for the CL, Barca for the league). Sevilla are back to their attacking Style under their new coach and Barca always put emphasis on attack. Should be an open game. Fabiano tipped to feature after injury.

Bet offering value

2.25pts over 3.5 goals @ 5/4 (Exchanges)

Bet = Win (2:3)

ValueSeeker

Westham v Man City

Carlton Cole will be eager to impress the England manager today in what will be his last chance before the England Squald is announced for the upcoming friendly and a whopping 11/4 on skybet is seriously value to do just that. when Cole starts at Upton Park, he always seems to score, no matter who the opposition are and today, against a deflated Man City, it would hardly be surprising to see him do the same.

Bet offering value:

1.5pts Carlton cole anytime scorer @ 11/4 (Skybet), 50%

Vurnon San Benito

Not bad so far, a little tip though, not regards your selections but about your website. It needs serious sorting mate Switch to WordPress.

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Westham v Man City

Carlton Cole will be eager to impress the England manager today in what will be his last chance before the England Squald is announced for the upcoming friendly and a whopping 11/4 on skybet is seriously value to do just that. when Cole starts at Upton Park, he always seems to score, no matter who the opposition are and today, against a deflated Man City, it would hardly be surprising to see him do the same.

Bet offering value:

1.5pts Carlton cole anytime scorer @ 11/4 (Skybet), 50%

Bet = Lose

ValueSeeker

Record so far:

Total Staked: 14pts | Total Returned: 20.17pts | Profit: +6.17pts

ValueSeeker

Atletico v Sevilla (Copa Del Rey)

A final maybe but I expect to see an open game. La Liga games between the 2 are usually frantic end to end games. Both are weak at the back, place the emphasis on attack and with a likely open game and the firepower of Forlan, Aguero, Fabiano and Kanoute amongst others 11/10 is a great price for me on the overs.

Selection offering value

3.5pts over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (VC), 70-75%

ValueSeeker

To the big hitting traders, the above selection may be a good opportunity. Currently 2.11 on betdaq

ForzaKid

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Atletico v Sevilla (Copa Del Rey)

A final maybe but I expect to see an open game. La Liga games between the 2 are usually frantic end to end games. Both are weak at the back, place the emphasis on attack and with a likely open game and the firepower of Forlan, Aguero, Fabiano and Kanoute amongst others 11/10 is a great price for me on the overs.

Selection offering value

3.5pts over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (VC), 70-75%

Cheers mate,Put 25 on that myself!!

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

To the big hitting traders, the above selection may be a good opportunity. Currently 2.11 on betdaq

Currently 1.91

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Atletico v Sevilla (Copa Del Rey)

A final maybe but I expect to see an open game. La Liga games between the 2 are usually frantic end to end games. Both are weak at the back, place the emphasis on attack and with a likely open game and the firepower of Forlan, Aguero, Fabiano and Kanoute amongst others 11/10 is a great price for me on the overs.

Selection offering value

3.5pts over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (VC), 70-75%

Bet = Lose (0:2)

ValueSeeker

Inter vs Bayern

I fancy Diego Milito as a real danger man to Bayern in this 1. He will play on the shoulder of the slow central defenders and with Sneijder, Eto and Pandev supplying the ammo, I fancy Milito will get a handful of really good chances in this game.

Selections offering value

2pts Diego Milito anytime scorer @ 7/4 (Paddypower) | 0.5 pts Diego Milito brace @ 11/1 (paddypower)

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Inter vs Bayern

I fancy Diego Milito as a real danger man to Bayern in this 1. He will play on the shoulder of the slow central defenders and with Sneijder, Eto and Pandev supplying the ammo, I fancy Milito will get a handful of really good chances in this game.

Selections offering value

2pts Diego Milito anytime scorer @ 7/4 (Paddypower) | 0.5 pts Diego Milito brace @ 11/1 (paddypower)

Bet(s) = Win

Verance

Good stuff again, ValueSeeker.

x PyRo

The man's a machine. Well done again.

Vurnon San Benito

Brilliant brace bet.

Just spruce the website up

ValueSeeker

Cheers lads, makes up for a bad weekend in the golf betting.

It's not a website mate, it's just a blog I threw together with little or no knowledge of web design.

Vurnon San Benito

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Cheers lads, makes up for a bad weekend in the golf betting.

It's not a website mate, it's just a blog I threw together with little or no knowledge of web design.

I know man, all I'm saying is, if you spruce it up a bit it could be a serious site because you have the most importing thing, good tips.
Just telling ya, could make you a bit of dosh from advertising deals if ya set it up right, especially with the World Cup coming up.

ValueSeeker

Total Staked: 20pts | Total Returned: 31.67pts| Profit: + 11.67pts

Verance

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Total Staked: 20pts | Total Returned: 31.67pts| Profit: + 11.67pts

I think I'll start following

ValueSeeker

Very early but I expect these prices to come in:

South Africa V Mexico
Compiler opinion seems to be thatthis match will be a very low scoring 1. They always side with the unders early in big international tournaments simply because they don't know what to expect. For me, it's more likely to be pretty open with chances than an edgy affair. Just too much attacking talent on show with the likes of Giovanno, Vela and Piennar the creators and neither defense is too great. Some books are offering great value in 13/8 on over 2.5 goals but I'll go for a safer bet..

Selection Offering Value:
3.25pts Goal line over 1.75 @ 1.72 (Betdaq)


Holland V Denmark
A group that promises plenty of goals IMO. The Dutch are notoriously weak at the back and Denmark pose a serious goal threat. Their squad includes big direct strikers such as Tomasson and Bendtner and they have the likes of the pacey wingers, Gronkjaer and Rommendahl to feed them if they choose. The attacking threat for the Dutch is 1 of the most potent in the tournament. Look out for Sneijder and Robben to feed Van Persie. Anything odds against on the over 2.5 represents a great value bet IMO.

Selection Offeing Value:
3pts over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 (Betfair)

ValueSeeker

Doocey wrote: »

I know man, all I'm saying is, if you spruce it up a bit it could be a serious site because you have the most importing thing, good tips.
Just telling ya, could make you a bit of dosh from advertising deals if ya set it up right, especially with the World Cup coming up.

New theme on my blog now. All done myself so still far from fantastic. Appreciate any feedback (good and bad).

ValueSeeker

South Africa V Mexico
Most books are less than 2/1 on Javier Hernandez anytime scorer but Bet365 are way overpriced for a young striker full of confidence after 3 goals in his last 3 friendlies and a move to Manchester upcoming. South Africa are loose at the back and expect the likes of Vela and Giovanni to create chances for him if they all start.

Selection offering value
1.5pts Javier Hernandez anytime scorer @ 12/5 (Bet 365), 40-45%

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Very early but I expect these prices to come in:

South Africa V Mexico
Compiler opinion seems to be thatthis match will be a very low scoring 1. They always side with the unders early in big international tournaments simply because they don't know what to expect. For me, it's more likely to be pretty open with chances than an edgy affair. Just too much attacking talent on show with the likes of Giovanno, Vela and Piennar the creators and neither defense is too great. Some books are offering great value in 13/8 on over 2.5 goals but I'll go for a safer bet..

Selection Offering Value:
3.25pts Goal line over 1.75 @ 1.72 (Betdaq)

Bet = Win (x 1/2)

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

South Africa V Mexico
Most books are less than 2/1 on Javier Hernandez anytime scorer but Bet365 are way overpriced for a young striker full of confidence after 3 goals in his last 3 friendlies and a move to Manchester upcoming. South Africa are loose at the back and expect the likes of Vela and Giovanni to create chances for him if they all start.

Selection offering value
1.5pts Javier Hernandez anytime scorer @ 12/5 (Bet 365), 40-45%

Non Starter

ValueSeeker

Record So Far

Total Staked: 23.25pts | Total Returned: 36.09pts| Profit: + 12.84pts

ValueSeeker

Germany v Australia

You'd have to fancy the Germans pretty strongly to beat the Aussies and the danger men in my eyes are Mesut Ozil (the supplier) and Miroslav Klose (the finisher). Ozil is tipped to be a superstar and Klose excels every time he puts on the white shirt. Piotr Trochowski (if he starts) is priced up at 50/1 on paddypower to be the main man and I can't ignore that either .

Selections offering value

0.5pts Miroslav Klose man of the match @ 7/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts Mesut Ozil man of the match @ 9/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts Piotr Trowchoski man of the match @ 50/1 (Paddypower)

Result decided by the budweiser fan vote man of the match on Fifa.com site

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Germany v Australia

You'd have to fancy the Germans pretty strongly to beat the Aussies and the danger men in my eyes are Mesut Ozil (the supplier) and Miroslav Klose (the finisher). Ozil is tipped to be a superstar and Klose excels every time he puts on the white shirt. Piotr Trochowski (if he starts) is priced up at 50/1 on paddypower to be the main man and I can't ignore that either .

Selections offering value

0.5pts Miroslav Klose man of the match @ 7/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts Mesut Ozil man of the match @ 9/1 (Bet365)
0.5pts Piotr Trowchoski man of the match @ 50/1 (Paddypower) VOID

Result decided by the budweiser fan vote man of the match on Fifa.com site

Bet(s) = Lose (fan vote)

ValueSeeker

Holland v Denmark

I'd expect the Dutch to hit the ground running and Van Persie is the man on top of his form. Everyone fancies him in this tournament and he's been cut to 10's for the golden boot from as big as 50's. There isn't any value in backing him to score tomorrow but PP are currently(won't last) 9/2 on him picking up the man of the match award and that's a great bet for me. He can feed off the brilliance of Van Der Vaart and Sneijder.

Selection Offering Value

1pt Robin Van Persie Man Of The Match @ 9/2 (Paddypower)

Full Preview

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Holland V Denmark
A group that promises plenty of goals IMO. The Dutch are notoriously weak at the back and Denmark pose a serious goal threat. Their squad includes big direct strikers such as Tomasson and Bendtner and they have the likes of the pacey wingers, Gronkjaer and Rommendahl to feed them if they choose. The attacking threat for the Dutch is 1 of the most potent in the tournament. Look out for Sneijder and Robben to feed Van Persie. Anything odds against on the over 2.5 represents a great value bet IMO.

Selection Offering Value:
3pts over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 (Betfair)

Bet = lose

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Holland v Denmark

I'd expect the Dutch to hit the ground running and Van Persie is the man on top of his form. Everyone fancies him in this tournament and he's been cut to 10's for the golden boot from as big as 50's. There isn't any value in backing him to score tomorrow but PP are currently(won't last) 9/2 on him picking up the man of the match award and that's a great bet for me. He can feed off the brilliance of Van Der Vaart and Sneijder.

Selection Offering Value

1pt Robin Van Persie Man Of The Match @ 9/2 (Paddypower)

Bet = Lose


Record So Far

Total Staked: 28.25pts | Total Returned: 36.09pts| Profit: + 7.84pts

ValueSeeker

Brazil v North Korea

A lot of firms are as short as 1/2 on Luis Fabiano scoring tomorrow and that price is about right. Stanjames are still currently 5/6 though and that represents a bit of value in a match where Fabiano is sure to get a handful of good scoring opportunities. The Brazilians will play most of the game in the North Korean half and Kaka and Robinho should create plenty.

Selection Offering Value
2pts Luis Fabiano anytime scorer @ 5/6 (SJ), 65%

Full Preview

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Brazil v North Korea

A lot of firms are as short as 1/2 on Luis Fabiano scoring tomorrow and that price is about right. Stanjames are still currently 5/6 though and that represents a bit of value in a match where Fabiano is sure to get a handful of good scoring opportunities. The Brazilians will play most of the game in the North Korean half and Kaka and Robinho should create plenty.

Selection Offering Value
2pts Luis Fabiano anytime scorer @ 5/6 (SJ), 65%

Full Preview

Bet = Lose

ValueSeeker

Brazil v Chile

If Chile continue to play their high pressing game against the Brazilians, they could be in for a hard time tomorrow. Brazil are now a counter attacking side and if Chile push too high up, I expect Fabiano, Kaka and Robinho to take them apart. Chile will be without key defensive players due to suspension.

Selection Offering Value
3pts Brazil to score 2 or more goals @ 1.92 (betfair)

Full preview

Vurnon San Benito

You'll turn around the form soon lad
I just don't fancy your latest bet! :P

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Brazil v Chile

If Chile continue to play their high pressing game against the Brazilians, they could be in for a hard time tomorrow. Brazil are now a counter attacking side and if Chile push too high up, I expect Fabiano, Kaka and Robinho to take them apart. Chile will be without key defensive players due to suspension.

Selection Offering Value
3pts Brazil to score 2 or more goals @ 1.92 (betfair)

Full preview

Bet = Win

ValueSeeker

Argentina v Germany

Both teams looking seriously potent in attack with Germany playing a completely all out attack style football. Both are suspect in defence when got at and I'd expect both teams to create a lot of good chances and with the firepower on show, a few should be taken.

Selection offering value: 3pts both teams to score @ 10/11 (WH), 65-70%

Vurnon San Benito

Excellent bet on Bastos being carded. Well done.

L'prof

Yeah, followed you on that and used your thinking behind it to back Hans Serpei to be booked too, thanks!

ValueSeeker

If you like those bets lads, keep an eye out for sevilla next season. Navas in particular but also Capel. Navas is forever getting his opponents booked and you can usually get his direct opponent at nice prices. The referees in LaLiga are all card mad as well.

L'prof

ValueSeeker wrote: »

If you like those bets lads, keep an eye out for sevilla next season. Navas in particular but also Capel. Navas is forever getting his opponents booked and you can usually get his direct opponent at nice prices. The referees in LaLiga are all card mad as well.

Lovin' them so far, backed Otamendi in this match

Vurnon San Benito

I'm very much thinking Vera to be booked in this match today.
Thoughts?

He just seems a very ambitious, eager workhorse and from what I've saw of him in the World Cup so far, he's been booked in most of them.!

ValueSeeker

Another decent trading opportunity - Germany v Spain currently 2.3 on the over 2.5 on the exchanges. I'd expect it to be backed in to about 2.05 - 2.1 by the night before/ early morning of the game. Worst case scenario I'd imagine is it will stay the same so no risk.

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Argentina v Germany

Both teams looking seriously potent in attack with Germany playing a completely all out attack style football. Both are suspect in defence when got at and I'd expect both teams to create a lot of good chances and with the firepower on show, a few should be taken.

Selection offering value: 3pts both teams to score @ 10/11 (WH), 65-70%

Bet = Lose

ValueSeeker

Thread stats:

Staked: 36.25pts | Returned: 41.85pts | Profit: + 5.6pts

ValueSeeker

Looking forward to the new season and hope to get this thread really taking off and provide some top value tips throughout. Kicking off...


Community Shield - Chelsea v UTD

Man of the match dutching - Rooney, Drogba and Lampard @ 2.25

Fancy this game to be pretty tame and tight especially if the weather is hot as is the norm and I'd say chances are pretty high that 1 of the aforementioned star names could be the difference or between the teams. Using best prices available odds calculate to 2.25.

Rooney: 1.04pts
Drogba: 1.12
Lampard: 0.84pts

Confidence: 60-65%

Total staked: 3pts (bet void if any non starters)

ValueSeeker

Lads, I'll be doing a Trading, Dutching and Spread Betting section on my blog this season if anyone's interested in the more advanced forms of betting. Been very profitable in the past and hopefully will continue to be.

Stay tuned to this section throughout the season if you are interested.

ValueSeeker

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Looking forward to the new season and hope to get this thread really taking off and provide some top value tips throughout. Kicking off...


Community Shield - Chelsea v UTD

Man of the match dutching - Rooney, Drogba and Lampard @ 2.25

Fancy this game to be pretty tame and tight especially if the weather is hot as is the norm and I'd say chances are pretty high that 1 of the aforementioned star names could be the difference or between the teams. Using best prices available odds calculate to 2.25.

Rooney: 1.04pts
Drogba: 1.12
Lampard: 0.84pts

Confidence: 60-65%

Total staked: 3pts (bet void if any non starters)

Bet = Void