May 2010 boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Deadline for entries: end of day, Sat 1 May.

penalties apply to late entries as in previous months.

The usual five questions plus a bonus:

1. Mean temp (five stations), normal for 1961-90 was 10.4 C

2. Max temp at all met.ie stations

3. Min temp at all met.ie stations

4. Rainfall (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting

5. Sunshine (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting

6. Max temp on 22nd at Oak Park (in association with GAA Hurling opening day)

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Here are my entries, and if anyone could submit theirs in this format, it helps with generating the table of entries (but no worries if you don't):

(10.7,21.0,-2.0,115,105,18.7)

thanks, MTC.

SeaFields

11.2,23.5,-1.0,95,110,17.0

talkabout

(11.7,23.0,-2.8,106,111,16.6)

pauldry

10.9,23.0,-1.0,110,93,17.8

thetonynator

(10.8, 22.3, -0.7, 110, 110, 18.0)

John mac

(10.6,22.3,-2.3,107,98,22.3)

Deep Easterly

11.1c,24.3,-0.9c,100,108,17.2

10.9,23.7,-1.6,101,107,21

200motels

1. Mean temp (five stations), normal for 1961-90 was 10.4 C 11.4C

2. Max temp at all met.ie stations 23.7C

3. Min temp at all met.ie stations 1.7C

4. Rainfall (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting 168%

5. Sunshine (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting 105%

6. Max temp on 22nd at Oak Park (in association with GAA Hurling opening day) . 17.4C

I like to paste the questions and then answer them it makes it easier for me.

Redsunset

12 C , 26 c , -2.5 c ,90% , 200% ,25.5 c

nacho libre

10.7, 24.5c, 1.2C, 125 , 95, 17.5

Danno

1. Mean temp (five stations), normal for 1961-90 was 10.4 C 10.6C

2. Max temp at all met.ie stations 23.5C

3. Min temp at all met.ie stations -1.2

4. Rainfall (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting 140%

5. Sunshine (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting 95%

6. Max temp on 22nd at Oak Park (in association with GAA Hurling opening day). 15.7C

Strasser

11.1 C , 22.4 c , -0.5 c ,110% , 120% ,18.5 c

DOCARCH

1. Mean temp (five stations), normal for 1961-90 was 10.4 C. 11.1c

2. Max temp at all met.ie stations. 22.6c

3. Min temp at all met.ie stations. -2.1c

4. Rainfall (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting. 90%

5. Sunshine (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting. 110%

6. Max temp on 22nd at Oak Park (in association with GAA Hurling opening day). 19.2c

jd

10.9, 23.5c, 1.3C, 115 , 105, 19.5

Joe Public

(9.9,21.9,-2.9,159,79,15.9)

kindredspirit

11.4°,23.5°,-1.0°,145,100,19.5°

Lumi

11.1, 23.5, -1.4, 113, 110, 16.9

dasa29

10.5, 24.0c, 0.5C, 105 , 125, 20.5

mickger844posts

11.2,23.1,-1.4,80,115,20.3

nilhg

1. Mean temp (five stations), normal for 1961-90 was 10.4 C 10.95C

2. Max temp at all met.ie stations 23.7C

3. Min temp at all met.ie stations -1.9C

4. Rainfall (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting 75%

5. Sunshine (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting 115%

6. Max temp on 22nd at Oak Park (in association with GAA Hurling opening day) 20.1

Su Campu

What is the climatalogical average temperature for the 5 stations?

M.T. Cranium

Su Campu (and others), DE was just mentioning to me that you can find slightly different 1961-90 "Normals" for various stations in Ireland on different tables in the met.ie publications. He is in the process of clearing this up with Met Eireann, but in any case, the averages that he gives us would be within 0.2 of any other averages for those stations if you happened to look at different sources than he's used. I just looked up the May values and found his value of 10.4 to be accurate from the first values I happened to find. It's probably an even longer story than I just made it seem to be, but in any case, we're predicting an absolute value that will be based (for verification) on what's reported in the climate summary when it appears, so that's the standard and we think the "1961-90 mean" we are giving out is accurate enough to give people a good starting point for their prediction.

So 10.4 it is for May (if you look them up you'll see they are all close to that value or a little under, except for Shannon which is 11.4 if I remember right).

Just a reminder, entries are accepted without penalty to the end of today, after which a slight penalty applies for entries on the 2nd.

Speak Now

1. Mean temp (five stations), normal for 1961-90 was 10.4 C 11.8c

2. Max temp at all met.ie stations 22.2c

3. Min temp at all met.ie stations O.5c

4. Rainfall (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting 120%

5. Sunshine (% of normal) at all met.ie stations reporting 90%

6. Max temp on 22nd at Oak Park (in association with GAA Hurling opening day) 18.1

(11.8,22.2,0.5,120,90,18.1)

Su Campu

11.1,25.5,2.5,90,105,17.9

M.T. Cranium

May forecast summary
________________________

Forecaster .... Mean .... Max .... Min .... Rain% .... Sun% .... Max 22nd
________________________________________________________

redsunset ...... 12.0 .... 26.0 .... -2.5 ..... 90 ..... 200 .... 25.5
Jerry Seinfeld ..11.8 .... 22.2 ..... 0.5 .... 120 ..... 90 .... 18.1
talkabout........ 11.7 .... 23.0 .... -2.8 .... 106 .... 111 .... 16.6
200motels ...... 11.4 .... 23.7 ..... 1.7 .... 168 .... 105 .... 17.4
kindredspirit .... 11.4 .... 23.5 .... -1.0 .... 145 .... 100 .... 19.5
SeaFields ....... 11.2 .... 23.5 .... -1.0 ..... 95 .... 110 .... 17.0
mickger844posts 11.2 ... 23.1 .... -1.4 .... 80 .... 115 .... 20.3
Su Campu ...... 11.1 .... 25.5 ..... 2.5 ..... 90 .....105 .....17.9
Deep Easterly . 11.1 .... 24.3 .... -0.9 .... 100 .... 108 .... 17.2
Strasser ........ 11.1 .... 22.4 .... -0.5 .... 110 .... 120 .... 18.5
DOCARCH ....... 11.1 .... 22.6 .... -2.1 ..... 90 .... 110 .... 19.2
Fionagus ........ 11.1 .... 23.5 .... -1.4 .... 113 .... 110 .... 16.9

Con Sensus ... 11.1 .... 23.0 .... -1.1 .... 106 .... 110 .... 18.1

nilhg ............. 11.0 .... 23.7 .... -1.9 ..... 75 .... 115 .... 20.1
hellboy99 ....... 10.9 .... 23.7 .... -1.6 .... 101 .... 107 ... 21.0
pauldry .......... 10.9 .... 23.0 .... -1.0 .... 110 ..... 93 ... 17.8
jd ................. 10.9 .... 23.5 ..... 1.3 .... 115 .... 105 .... 19.5
thetonynator .. 10.8 .... 22.3 .... -0.7 .... 110 .... 110 ... 18.0
M.T. Cranium .. 10.7 .... 21.0 .... -2.0 .... 115 .... 105 ... 18.7
nacho libre ..... 10.7 .... 24.5 ..... 1.2 .... 125 ..... 95 .... 17.5
John mac ....... 10.6 .... 22.3 .... -2.3 .... 107 ..... 98 ... 22.3
Danno ........... 10.6 .... 23.5 .... -1.2 .... 140 ..... 95 .... 15.7
dasa29 .......... 10.5 .... 24.0 ..... 0.5 .... 105 .... 125 ... 20.5
Joe Public ...... 9.9 ..... 21.9 .... -2.9 .... 159 ..... 79 .... 15.9

23 forecasts entered ... watch for updates

thetonynator

Is ther something special about 11.1 that I missed out on???!!!

M.T. Cranium

Seems that way. Note that the current forecast comp thread is now "sticky" and easier to find.

The first seven days of the month have left us at these values:

mean temp 9.3 C

rainfall 73% of normal

sunshine 90% of normal

In general, the east has been wetter and cloudier, the west closer to average if not a bit above for sunshine.

pauldry

yes was thinking tis been a bit chilly . today was a lovely sunny day here but though i wore the t shirt i still had the goosebumps. next week will be chilly too. someone may do very well this month with their low temperature prediction.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The first seven days of the month have left us at these values:

mean temp 9.3 C

and on the 8th day, the combined mean value of the 5 central Met Eireann stations remains at 9.3c, which is in and around normal for the first 3rd of May.

Chart showing mean maxima & minima for the first 8 days of May at the 5 met eireann stations:




Like April, the west is a little warmer than the far eastern section of the area regarding daily maxima, although mean mins are fairly uniform across the country so far.


A quick look at how the annual mean temp is doing at the 5 met stations:



On the rise at last, but still 1.07c below normal for the period, and even cooler than this time last year. With temps forecast to be close to or a little below normal for the coming week, I would be surprised if the we got within the 0.5c-1.0c anomally by this time next week, but I'll let ye know the story!

Forecast chart for the coming mid-week period:



Ridging to the NW continuing to steer down winds from a northerly sector so feeling fresh but pleasant enough in just light to moderate winds.


Data source: Met Eireann

DOCARCH

Min temperature yesterday at Casement was -2.0c. This is great news!

Speak Now

DOCARCH wrote: »

Min temperature yesterday at Casement was -2.0c. This is great news!

M.T. Cranium on the button :eek:

Joe Public

DOCARCH wrote: »

Min temperature yesterday at Casement was -2.0c. This is great news!

Even better for MTC

DOCARCH

Joe Public wrote: »

Even better for MTC

Oh yeah - see that now! Good for MT. I just need a -2.1c somewhere/sometime.

mike65

March.

pauldry

Excuse me if Im wrong but the calculation of the means Im getting up to 12th May for the Mean temp for May for the 5 stations is 8.38c

Thats fierce low

M.T. Cranium

I think you're right, looks like it should now start a slow rise towards perhaps 10 C by the end of next week.

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

Excuse me if Im wrong but the calculation of the means Im getting up to 12th May for the Mean temp for May for the 5 stations is 8.38c

Thats fierce low

T'was indeed, but as M.T predicted, a rise, albeit a slow one, started yesterday. There should be quite a boost in the mean temp by this time next week.

M.T. Cranium

Update of the monthly values through first 14 days ...

mean temp 8.5 C

rainfall 56% of normal

sunshine 111% of normal

pauldry

I think everyone can do with the mean going up a bit.

Surprised the rain is so high(low) . here in Sligo theres been very little

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

I think everyone can do with the mean going up a bit.

Surprised the rain is so high(low) . here in Sligo theres been very little

Same here. Rainfall total so far this May here is still below 10mm :eek:. The East is actually wetter so far this month. Something isn't right!

Current combined mean value of the five Met Eireann stations standing at 8.6c as of midnight last so rising nicely at last. Quick chart showing monthly progress up to the 15th:




Regarding the annual mean, we are currently on 5.16c, which is around 1.10c below the 61-90 norm.


Daily Mean Maxima chart for the month of May at stations at Birr, Galway and Dublin:


(Galway values based on 65-94 daily average)

April's chill extending into the opening days of the month, but warming up nicely towards the end as it ascends into summer




Forecast chart for the coming midweek period:



A mild, moist & humid SSW flow becoming established over Ireland as pressure builds from the SW. Should feel a lot more pleasant than last week despite being breezy and drizzly at times although humidity levels are expected to fall towards the end of the coming week.

Great growing weather really!


Data Courtesy of Met Eireann

mp22

12 deg,light westerly wind,good sunny spells

pauldry

Great Charts DP thanks.

Cloudier picture could ruin the mean rise potential daywise but nightimes being warm will help it considerably. rainfall will be well below normal for the month it would seem and sunshine , well prob above in East and near or below in the West.

pauldry

5 Station Mean is now at 8.92 . therel have to be a major heatwave for consensus to be reached surely.

Deep Easterly

pauldry wrote: »

5 Station Mean is now at 8.92 . therel have to be a major heatwave for consensus to be reached surely.

For sure. I think the average temp at least has a good chance of being reached, if not surpassed before the month is out though. Hard one to call though at this early stage.

thetonynator

Anyone know what the max temp so far is??? Although it wil prob be surpassed before next weekend . . .

pauldry

well it were 19.2 in Malin Head yesterday and over 20 in lots of places today. think by end of weekend 24 will have been passed. I predicted 23 to be the tops but that surely will be passed:(

thetonynator

I know, i said 22 . . .

DOCARCH

Highs yesterday (21st):

Gurteen 24.4c
Shannon AP 24.3c
Oak Park 23.7c
Mullingar 23.7c
Ballyhaise 23.1c

M.T. Cranium

Monthly mean for the five stations without a name ... 9.7 C through 20th
estimate 10.4 through 24th.

Then ??? hold steady, fall back slightly ... everyone still in the game, it would seem.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Monthly mean for the five stations without a name ... 9.7 C through 20th
estimate 10.4 through 24th.

Then ??? hold steady, fall back slightly ... everyone still in the game, it would seem.

A jump of 0.5c yesterday alone. :eek: At this stage of the month last year, the value was on 10.1c, with a real sharp rise towards the closing days.