How high will unemployment rise?

RichardAnd

Title pretty much says it all. How high will the unemployment numbers and % rise in Ireland before it starts to fall once again.

I've read that it could reach 17% or even 18% which would probably be about 600k people on the dole. However, I'm always dubious about such figures and seeing as there are a plethora of people on these boards with a very sound grasp on economics, I'd be interested in their views.

And while we're at it, let's bring up another topic; long term unemployment. I have a close friend who has been on the dole now for two years, on and off. To be fair, he could have taken a min wage job but he, like so many young people, seems to think that 4 years in college some how entitles (there's the magic word) him to 30k+ a year. But putting that aside, what are the job prospects for people like him, people who have been out of work for 6 months+?

Personally, I think that we are heading back to the olden days with mass emigration and few prospects at home. Employers are becoming very, VERY picky about who they hire, sometimes to the point of ridicule. We have a shed load of graduates with no experience and next to useless degrees and despite what 600 points and a first class honours does for an ego, most employers don't give a crap about pieces of paper. I'm not saying this isn't right, Ireland's "young people" have had things too soft for too long but I just wonder what the social consequences of mass unemployment amongst younger generations will do long term. After all, they do grow up (or at least, get older).

Sandvich

Could get close to 20%, just before the Germans come in.

Erren Music

If the government stopped fiddling the figures then 1 million unemployed by end of 2012 is on the cards. At that stage mortgages in arrears over 3 months will be 13-15% minimum, credit card debt will be astronomical.

The tax take will be down another 20%, and 20% of gdp will be paying interest only.

Welcome to Ireland

johnnyskeleton

RichardAnd wrote: »

I've read that it could reach 17% or even 18% which would probably be about 600k people on the dole. However, I'm always dubious about such figures and seeing as there are a plethora of people on these boards with a very sound grasp on economics, I'd be interested in their views.

At this stage, it's not about the number of people unemployed. Instead, its about the number of people employed that will make a difference. Expect the latter to slowly decline over the next few years while the former remains static.

Stinicker

The way things are now I actually hope things get far worse and that the dole gets cut and drive people into real absolute poverty. The people of Ireland need their bloody eyes opened to the reality of the absolute shower of scumbags that Fianna Fail are. We also are a poor country with no proper infrastrucutre and no natural resources. Our culture involves getting pissed drunk every weekend.

Luckily I am going to Australia in July to check things out before making the next big move early next year. Quite frankly I would rather sterilise myself than having the thought of spending the rest of my life here and the nightmare that is our rotten country.

The government ruined Ireland and I will never forgive them for it and as heartbreaking as it is to say this we would be better off if we never achieved independence because at least then the likes of Fianna Fail would never have come to exist and we would have have merged away peacefully after the 2nd world war as a United Ireland along proper progressive liberal European lines like India, Canada and the rest of the commonwealth.

Instead we got Crony Capitalism, Religious Catholic Fundamentalism, and a corrupt uncultured society where dole queues and cute hoorism is celebrated and doing anything right or being successful is frowned upon as a fools game. We have nothing to be proud of and until there is a fundamental mindset change in Irish society then things will remain the same.

RichardAnd

Erren Music wrote: »

If the government stopped fiddling the figures then 1 million unemployed by end of 2012 is on the cards. At that stage mortgages in arrears over 3 months will be 13-15% minimum, credit card debt will be astronomical.

The tax take will be down another 20%, and 20% of gdp will be paying interest only.

Welcome to Ireland

one million eh. So that's ~200million a week on dole at current levels. Obviously, that's not sustainable so it beg the question, what the hell are we going to do with 1 million people without the means to support themselves? The only viable thing I can think of would be something along the lines of Victorian era poor houses.

Sandvich

RichardAnd wrote: »

one million eh. So that's ~200million a week on dole at current levels. Obviously, that's not sustainable so it beg the question, what the hell are we going to do with 1 million people without the means to support themselves? The only viable thing I can think of would be something along the lines of Victorian era poor houses.

Mass emigration will be the most likely prospect. I already see the signs of it.

Unfortuantely for people like me that's not much of an option right now.

Stinicker

Sandvich wrote: »

Mass emigration will be the most likely prospect. I already see the signs of it.

Unfortuantely for people like me that's not much of an option right now.

Mass Emigration will only work if the Irish government can negotiate Visas for underpopulated countries like Australia. At the moment Emigrating anywhere legally is practically impossible outside the EU, and no one is going to the EU as Ireland is an English speaking country and English is the world language and we do not Emigrate to a country where we cannot talk and interact with locals. Options are Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United States, England doesn't offer anything of any real value at the moment and the English are already competing with the Irish are they are leaving in droves also.

Sandvich

Stinicker wrote: »

Mass Emigration will only work if the Irish government can negotiate Visas for underpopulated countries like Australia. At the moment Emigrating anywhere legally is practically impossible outside the EU, and no one is going to the EU as Ireland is an English speaking country and English is the world language and we do not Emigrate to a country where we cannot talk and interact with locals. Options are Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United States, England doesn't offer anything of any real value at the moment and the English are already competing with the Irish are they are leaving in droves also.

The UK's unemployment is actually far lower than ours though. They're not in the same level of trouble. Ireland is paricularly ****ed.

Fluffybums

The trouble is generation after generation, mass emigration has been the answer to such an extent that government policy depends on it. What idiot thinks that letting the best and brightest leave is good for a country!

Previous generations sent money back; according to the "Forgotten Irish" program on RTE, 3 billion was sent back between 1939(?) and 1969 via bank accounts and this did not take into account what was brought back or sent back in letters (I suspect as much again got back into Ireland by these means) and I think that was just from those in the UK. This is massive, given the size of the economy at the time, 'quantitative easing' which various Irish governments did not have to pay for (look at the UK for the cost of a government using quantitative easing, to stimulate an economy). I suspect that the people of this generation, will not be so willing to forgo their own standard of living to support the economy that has consistently expected people to leave their homes. Why should they, the money from the 'Celtic Tiger' was frittered away by the billions and there is so little to show for it, no transport infrastructure, schools grossly under funded, a muddled health 'service' and some of the most well paid representatives in the world who primarily seem to get into power due to family links (a voted in aristocracy).
And to cap it all, where are all these people supposed to go. Even if other countries did not go into recession the economies definately slowed.

It is about time this country stopped looking at the rest of the world to drag us out of the mire, by accepting the exported people, and take responsibility for the future.

hinault

Unemployment was forecast (in 2008) to hit 15% in 2010.

The figure has been revised downward to hit 13% - which is where it is at the moment.

Emigration has already taken affect.

newfrontier

Fluffybums wrote: »

The trouble is generation after generation, mass emigration has been the answer to such an extent that government policy depends on it. What idiot thinks that letting the best and brightest leave is good for a country!

Previous generations sent money back; according to the "Forgotten Irish" program on RTE, 3 billion was sent back between 1939(?) and 1969 via bank accounts and this did not take into account what was brought back or sent back in letters (I suspect as much again got back into Ireland by these means) and I think that was just from those in the UK. This is massive, given the size of the economy at the time, 'quantitative easing' which various Irish governments did not have to pay for (look at the UK for the cost of a government using quantitative easing, to stimulate an economy). I suspect that the people of this generation, will not be so willing to forgo their own standard of living to support the economy that has consistently expected people to leave their homes. Why should they, the money from the 'Celtic Tiger' was frittered away by the billions and there is so little to show for it, no transport infrastructure, schools grossly under funded, a muddled health 'service' and some of the most well paid representatives in the world who primarily seem to get into power due to family links (a voted in aristocracy).
And to cap it all, where are all these people supposed to go. Even if other countries did not go into recession the economies definately slowed.

It is about time this country stopped looking at the rest of the world to drag us out of the mire, by accepting the exported people, and take responsibility for the future.

Good rant, and alot of people feel the same way.But if you aint got a good suggestion, join the ranks of "shoulder shruggers" or " the 80% I'm alright jack" the fact is our democratically elected government are shafting you and thousands of others ... look they even came up with 450 m for the greeks...while saying we are going to take 3bn out of the Irish economy. Look it doesn't take a genius to figure out where we are headed for the next 5 years.While 90% will piss and moan and complain and do nothing. I have a suggestion. If you want to take 1 step say you will join an alliance here and now to make a change.Then that group decides on a course of action that actually does something. I await your response.

Sandvich

Our population is also a drop in the ocean compared to the total of western europe - you could probably set just about everyone up when the economy recovers in a european state of your chosing, and leave Mary Harney and the catholic church alone to fend for themselves.

hinault

Emigration is not a solution to anything.
Whether or not it helps fills the de-populated parts of Europe or not.

No other country in Europe would stand ideally by and tolerate the wholesale emigration of a generation from their country.
No one - except this failed entity.

As others have said, we are badly served by this country's politicians.

Politicians cannot be held accountable for every single economic mishap.
But what they can be held responsible for - should be held responsible for - is for the prevailing economic conditions here.
They helped create a falsely inflated economy and they have helped to oversee practically the destruction of this economy and it's future for this generation and the next generation.


It is simply not acceptable that we have huge numbers of people unemployed and that the solution to this problem is emigration.
This is simply not acceptable.

People should have stormed that Dail at this point.

Erren Music

Sandvich wrote: »

The UK's unemployment is actually far lower than ours though. They're not in the same level of trouble. Ireland is paricularly ****ed.

The UK is totally fcked, they are borrowing and printing £400 million a week, they have the potential to collapse and it is just a mar of time before anarchy breaks out there, as it is here. Would you want to be earning over 200k a year when 1 million are unemployed.

RichardAnd

Right, I found this from Google.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf

It states that there are 433k people on the dole as of march of this year. This is, interestingly, down a bit from janurary but I suspect that this is due to emigration as much as anything else. Things seem to be stabilising off at about 13.4% but I'd imagine that this will rise soon due to the amount of graduates coming out of college and going straight onto the scratcher.

So let's say it reach 18 percent. If my maths are correct, that would give us about 581k "job seekers" which, at current rates of dole payments will cost us about 115million a week, so lets say 100million when you factor in people getting less for various reasons.

Well never mind 1 million people out of work, that alone is unsustainable. And this is just dole payments, it over looks things like childrens' allowance and pensions. Honestly, I can see the dole being cut by 50% in the December budget which will give make the average payment less than 100 euro a week.

I think the solution here is to re-think the entire idea of dole. Maybe people without a job should be given food instead of money? It would save alot for the state as it could be bought in bulk but I suppose that brings up the issue of de-humanising people.

Shiny

RichardAnd wrote: »

Right, I found this from Google.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf

It states that there are 433k people on the dole as of march of this year. This is, interestingly, down a bit from janurary but I suspect that this is due to emigration as much as anything else. Things seem to be stabilising off at about 13.4% but I'd imagine that this will rise soon due to the amount of graduates coming out of college and going straight onto the scratcher.

So let's say it reach 18 percent. If my maths are correct, that would give us about 581k "job seekers" which, at current rates of dole payments will cost us about 115million a week, so lets say 100million when you factor in people getting less for various reasons.

Well never mind 1 million people out of work, that alone is unsustainable. And this is just dole payments, it over looks things like childrens' allowance and pensions. Honestly, I can see the dole being cut by 50% in the December budget which will give make the average payment less than 100 euro a week.

I think the solution here is to re-think the entire idea of dole. Maybe people without a job should be given food instead of money? It would save alot for the state as it could be bought in bulk but I suppose that brings up the issue of de-humanising people.

As as graduate who was one the dole a few years ago, I definitely thought
it was too much at the time but cutting it to 100 is too low also. By the
time someone's rent is gone from that 100, there isn't much left for food.
The suggestion of cutting the current rate by 30% to around €140 is more
realistic in the medium term. I'm referring to Dublin based rents here.

Or as you are saying in terms of food, €100 (for rent) + Food vouchers
might cover it.

RichardAnd

Shiny wrote: »

As as graduate who was one the dole a few years ago, I definitely thought
it was too much at the time but cutting it to 100 is too low also. By the
time someone's rent is gone from that 100, there isn't much left for food.
The suggestion of cutting the current rate by 30% to around €140 is more
realistic in the medium term. I'm referring to Dublin based rents here.

Or as you are saying in terms of food, €100 (for rent) + Food vouchers
might cover it.

It's done in the states I think, welfare comes in the form of food stamps.

maninasia

hinault wrote: »

Emigration is not a solution to anything.
Whether or not it helps fills the de-populated parts of Europe or not.

No other country in Europe would stand ideally by and tolerate the wholesale emigration of a generation from their country.
No one - except this failed entity.

As others have said, we are badly served by this country's politicians.

Politicians cannot be held accountable for every single economic mishap.
But what they can be held responsible for - should be held responsible for - is for the prevailing economic conditions here.
They helped create a falsely inflated economy and they have helped to oversee practically the destruction of this economy and it's future for this generation and the next generation.


It is simply not acceptable that we have huge numbers of people unemployed and that the solution to this problem is emigration.
This is simply not acceptable.

People should have stormed that Dail at this point.

The same thing has happened in Lithuania. Now most people in Ireland think Ireland is a developed country..yet it comes up with the same solution as an ex-Soviet bloc state.

who_ru

the 'solution' to our financial problems at times like this is to hammer the people on welfare, who in most instances are there as a result of crazy economic policies set by the FF/PD's/Greens.

but we throw 4bn euro literally down the drain by giving it to anglo irish bank, and FF/Greens now intend to pump billions more into it. then the topic of conversation is how do we stop all the spongers on welfare from draining the public purse. it's pathetic and always works.

our problem is not the number of people on welfare, our problem is the Govt. they are the ones who need to be ostracized.

the people who have locked themselves into anglo HQ today will be portrayed in the press as left wing loonies, but at least they are determined to make a stand and try and stop this transfer of billions of our euros to a rotten bank, while its former directors work on their golf handicaps.

we need to get this Govt out not the people on welfare.

danbohan

hinault wrote: »

Emigration is not a solution to anything.
Whether or not it helps fills the de-populated parts of Europe or not.

No other country in Europe would stand ideally by and tolerate the wholesale emigration of a generation from their country.
No one - except this failed entity.

As others have said, we are badly served by this country's politicians.

Politicians cannot be held accountable for every single economic mishap.
But what they can be held responsible for - should be held responsible for - is for the prevailing economic conditions here.
They helped create a falsely inflated economy and they have helped to oversee practically the destruction of this economy and it's future for this generation and the next generation.


It is simply not acceptable that we have huge numbers of people unemployed and that the solution to this problem is emigration.
This is simply not acceptable.

People should have stormed that Dail at this point.

people like me should have stormed the dail in the 80s too but we meekly hurried to the airports to be ripped off by aer lingus as we went to USA etc, yes we moaned a bit, in our beer mostly (we did not have the boards then)
remember they same people who said , agh sure this island is too small for us all are still in charge ie the lenighans and their ilk , so their will be a policy in government too massage the unemployment figures , deny emigration exists as the did in 80, and 90s and i dont think anything will change here, ever

funnyname

The current rate is actually 20% - that's if the same method for calculating was used here as in the UK.

alias141282

There will be a big increase in single income families. This will bring down the labour force somewhat. I would expect unemployment to peak at about 15% with the labour force shrinking at the same time.

RichardAnd

funnyname wrote: »

The current rate is actually 20% - that's if the same method for calculating was used here as in the UK.

How do the english do it?

Idbatterim

the 'solution' to our financial problems at times like this is to hammer the people on welfare, who in most instances are there as a result of crazy economic policies set by the FF/PD's/Greens.our problem is not the number of people on welfare, our problem is the Govt. they are the ones who need to be ostracized.

who_ru to a large extent I would agree with you, but realistically all current political parties are so useless, its probably even a waste of time debating trying to sort things out by a change in government, cause it wont happen. You have to blame the government and the electorate. Imagine tomorrow a new party set up, with credible answers to all our problems, do you think they would get voted in? I doubt it, thats the states of affairs were in. Sure Mary would vote Labour like she always has, and sure Seamus has been a FF man all his life. There is no way any hardline leader will get to do the right thing for the country, because the right thing for the country isnt the right thing for the party and remember its all about the short term and remaining in power! Remember "power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely"! The type of people you want running things for the most part are certainly not the type that go into politics! And people say march against this and that, but we are all so consumed with our own agenda's whether we are private sector, public sector, welfare recipients, OAP's. The only thing we can probably all agree on is that all parties are p*ss poor and that the entire nama situation is a disgrace, id say thats it though.

Fluffybums

RichardAnd wrote: »

How do the english do it?

% of the eligible working population not the whole population.

Sandvich

who_ru wrote: »

the 'solution' to our financial problems at times like this is to hammer the people on welfare, who in most instances are there as a result of crazy economic policies set by the FF/PD's/Greens.

but we throw 4bn euro literally down the drain by giving it to anglo irish bank, and FF/Greens now intend to pump billions more into it. then the topic of conversation is how do we stop all the spongers on welfare from draining the public purse. it's pathetic and always works.

our problem is not the number of people on welfare, our problem is the Govt. they are the ones who need to be ostracized.

the people who have locked themselves into anglo HQ today will be portrayed in the press as left wing loonies, but at least they are determined to make a stand and try and stop this transfer of billions of our euros to a rotten bank, while its former directors work on their golf handicaps.

we need to get this Govt out not the people on welfare.

4bn would most likely more than cover the cuts people here are looking to make to welfare, and would immediately illiminate a huge wad of the deficit. Funny how that doesn't come up nearly as often.

I guess corporate welfare is that bit more acceptable to "libertarians". It's all about the protestant work ethic it seems.

danbohan

Fluffybums wrote: »

% of the eligible working population not the whole population.

which makes good sense
here we have quote.,
There are 52,815 people around the country waiting for a decision to be made on their claim, which is a reduction of 7,000 on the figures from January.

that figure is not included in the 430000 , ?

We should watch and see how the bail out effects Greek unemployment rates. Will there be cut backs in the form of job losses. Be a barometer of sorts for us.

For the record Greek unemployment is currently approx 10%

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2010/04/will_euro_bailout_actually_hel.html

It is predicted to rise with the bail out but by 0.5% to 10.5%

Sandvich

RichardAnd wrote: »

Honestly, I can see the dole being cut by 50% in the December budget which will give make the average payment less than 100 euro a week.

If you really think this is plausible; then you are immensely out of touch.

RA minimum contribution is €24, leaving €76 for food, transport, etc.

Not to mention how much it would bollock up the economy; high welfare is a natural cash injection.

RichardAnd

Sandvich wrote: »

If you really think this is plausible; then you are immensely out of touch.

RA minimum contribution is €24, leaving €76 for food, transport, etc.

Not to mention how much it would bollock up the economy; high welfare is a natural cash injection.

I'm far more in touch than most people I can tell you. I said I can see it happening, I gave no indication of what my opinion on the matter is or weather or not I believe it to be plausible, as you said. I merely stated that I can see it being a reality.

Sandvich

RichardAnd wrote: »

I'm far more in touch than most people I can tell you. I said I can see it happening, I gave no indication of what my opinion on the matter is or weather or not I believe it to be plausible, as you said. I merely stated that I can see it being a reality.

But I don't think this either. There is a strong cowardly element to many in the Dail and such drastic measured would run the risk of the veil of apathy finally being removed from someone and resulting in a serious ****kicking. While they made some hard decisions do you really want to piss off a bunch of 6 foot well built drunken out of work builders? As out of touch is the government is, I can't imagine them going this far.

Maybe it wouldn't be so bad in a sense then, but the risk of the Irish people once again doing absolutely nothing is too high.

The IMF's conduct has shown slashing things doesn't work, anyway.

who_ru

the IMF is like the boogeyman. he's gonna get 'cha. I feel sorry for the Greeks, betrayed by politicians, accountants, bankers and of course a single european currency that has been a disaster for all concerned.

ei.sdraob

who_ru wrote: »

the IMF is like the boogeyman. he's gonna get 'cha. I feel sorry for the Greeks, betrayed by politicians, accountants, bankers and of course a single european currency that has been a disaster for all concerned.

so everyone is at fault

but the Greeks themselves

i see :rolleyes:

ei.sdraob

can the unemployment figures here actually be trusted :eek:

OMD

ei.sdraob wrote: »

can the unemployment figures here actually be trusted :eek:

What is the problem with the figures?

ei.sdraob

OMD wrote: »

What is the problem with the figures?

1. read linked article
2. invest in a calculator (same goes for forfas)

OMD

ei.sdraob wrote: »

1. read linked article
2. invest in a calculator (same goes for forfas)

Just answer the question rather than try to be smart. If you are going to post links at least comment on them.

I hope it is not something as stupid as thinking the percentages should add up to 100% because that would be so idiotic.

ei.sdraob

OMD wrote: »

Just answer the question rather than try to be smart. If you are going to post links at least comment on them.

I hope it is not something as stupid as thinking the percentages should add up to 100% because that would be so idiotic.

yes they are not adding up

OMD

ei.sdraob wrote: »

yes they are not adding up

Don't be ridiculous. You cannot seriously suggest the figures should add up to 100%

ei.sdraob

OMD wrote: »

Don't be ridiculous. You cannot seriously suggest the figures should add up to 100%

will look you look at the figures in the linked article image, its all over the place :rolleyes:

OMD

ei.sdraob wrote: »

will look you look at the figures in the linked article image, its all over the place :rolleyes:

]

Why not just say what figures you feel should add up?

OMD

ei.sdraob wrote: »

will look you look at the figures in the linked article image, its all over the place :rolleyes:

Perhaps I should explain it to you.

Lets say for example that the unemployment rate for 15-19 year olds is 100% for arguments sake. That means For those with no formal education it is 100%, those with lower secondary 100%, Upper secondary 100%, Post leaving cert 100% etc.
Obviously the totals could not possible add up to 100%.

Are you seriously suggesting they should? Sounds like you have a calculator but no basic understanding of figures

RichardAnd

That graph is confusing. Is it suggesting that figures are lower than the CSO are claiming or is it simply doctored statistics?

ei.sdraob

OMD wrote: »

Sounds like you have a calculator but no basic understanding of figures

I recommend you look harder (hint: specifically at unemployment rate %es on rhs "grand total" column)

here is the document from Forfas

heres page 7


and here is page 42


btw the % of total unemployment figure comes to 99.7% which is excusable with a margin of error, but thats not where the issues are

OMD

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I recommend you look harder (hint: specifically at unemployment rate %es on rhs "grand total" column)


btw the % of total unemployment figure comes to 99.7% which is excusable with a margin of error, but thats not where the issues are

Well just say where the issues are rather than giving hints. Where are these massive problems. I keep asking you to show me and you constantly fail to do so. It is a simple question. What exactly is the problem?

RichardAnd

Interesting. If I read that right, there seems to be as much of a chance of getting a job with an ordinary degree as there is with an honours. Hmm, I have always said there is no real difference between the two.

Highly Salami

ei.sdraob wrote: »

yes they are not adding up

Yule have 2 spel it out 4 us simpletons.

hinault

A more accurate assessment is to measure how many people are working in the economy - as opposed how many people are unemployed.

The taxbase of this country is essentially funded by those who work in this country.

Just my two cents worth.