Magners League: Who will finish in the top four?

thomond2006

This weekend's results (2 -4 April):

Connacht 22 - 21 Edinburgh
Ospreys 27 - 19 Scarlets
Munster 15 - 16 Leinster
Ulster 24 - 33 Cardiff
Glasgow 27 - 19 Dragons

TABLE

Leinster 46 (game in hand)
Munster 39
Edinburgh 39
Glasgow 38

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Ospreys 37 (game in hand)
Dragons 33
Cardiff 31
Ulster 25 (game in hand)
Scarlets 23
Connacht 21 (game in hand)

http://www.magnersleague.com/matchcentre/table.php

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Remaining Fixtures

LEINSTER: Ospreys (h), Glasgow (a), Edinburgh (h), Connacht (a) - Date TBC

MUNSTER: Connacht (a), Ospreys (h), Cardiff (a)

EDINBURGH: Dragons (a), Ulster (h), Leinster (a)

GLASGOW WARRIORS: Ulster (h), Leinster (h), Scarlets (a)

OSPREYS: Ulster (a), Leinster (a), Munster (a), Dragons (h)

NEWPORT GWENT DRAGONS: Edinburgh (h), Cardiff (h), Ospreys (a)

CARDIFF BLUES: Scarlets (a), Dragons (a), Munster (h)

ULSTER: Ospreys (h), Glasgow (a), Edinburgh (a), Connacht (h)

SCARLETS: Cardiff (h), Connacht (h), Glasgow (h)

CONNACHT: Munster (h), Scarlets (a), Ulster (a), Leinster (h)- Date TBC

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With Dragons' loss today, it leaves just five teams in the hunt for the play-offs IMO.

One thing is certain, Leinster have sealed a home semi final and with two home games to go should finish first by some distance.

Munster have made it more difficult for themselves but they should contest second place with Glasgow. 2 wins should be enough for both to get into the play-offs.

Edinburgh and Ospreys have tough run-ins. The loss to Connacht is a blow to the Scots and the trips to Dragons and Leinster will be difficult. The Ospreys have 3 games in Ireland, the game against Ulster is two days after their HEC quarterfinal. They may not win any of those 3. The fourth place may come down to bonus points or even points differential.

With just 4 points between the sides, there is a chance that Connacht could catch Ulster for the 3rd Irish Heineken Cup place. Ulster have won one ML game in 2010 while Connacht have got 11 league points in their last four games. It could be a HEC play-off on the last day at Ravenhill. :cool:

sock puppet

It's worth noting that the Ospreys play Ulster on the Tuesday after their Heineken Cup QF, and three days before their game against Leinster. So they'll do well to get so much as a losing bonus point out of the two games.

thomond2006

Ospreys

sock puppet wrote: »

It's worth noting that the Ospreys play Ulster on the Tuesday after their Heineken Cup QF, and three days before their game against Leinster. So they'll do well to get so much as a losing bonus point out of the two games.

Good spot, three games in 6 days. That's Ospreys struggling to make the play-offs imo.

Ulster should be targeting a BP win against Ospreys on the Tuesday.

[Jackass]

Dragons

Hmm, tough one to call and good spot with the Ospreys.

I would like to see the Ospreys get in, it's good for the profile of the league to have the big teams... I went for Leinster, Munster, Edinburgh & Ospreys in no particular order.

Cardiff's Magners form always baffles me...out in the group stages of Heineken Cup and no other competition to concentrate on, yet they can never seem to get it together in the league!! Weirrrrrd, especially with the "concentrating on other competitions" excuse removed...

Ideally I would have liked to see Leinster, Munster, Ospreys and Cardiff in the play-offs...maybe next season, either way, I'm really looking forward to the climax of the season and it will do wonders for the league imo...

Might take a season or two to catch on, but will be a very good thing for the league...

Co45

Ospreys

Would normally go for Ospreys for 4th choice but looking at their fixture list I'm not so sure!

Fizman

Cardiff

Munster and Leinster for sure. I think that Glasgow can hold out, and I reckon Ulster could very well slip in to be honest.

thomond2006

Ospreys

IMO if Munster can get 14/15 points from the remaining 5 games (including a win against Glasgow) it should be enough.

Ulster are capable of doing the double over Cardiff but I can't see them winning at both Glasgow and Edinburgh tbh.

It will be a lot clearer after this weekend. IMO Ospreys need to win at Dragons because I don't fancy them to win any games in Ireland.

Podge_irl

[Jackass] wrote: »

I would like to see the Ospreys get in, it's good for the profile of the league to have the big teams... I went for Leinster, Munster, Edinburgh & Ospreys in no particular order.

To be honest, I'd far prefer to see Edinburgh and Glasgow get in. They've both made huge strides over the last two years and they deserve it, and it will hopefully go towards increasing their popularity in Scotland. It may well end up being Munster who are grateful that the Ospreys have such a piss poor run in.

PhatPiggins

Ospreys

I got pillored back in september when I said that none of the Welsh teams would make. Think the Ospreys might sneak in though.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Chris Paterson's absence is a huge blow to Edinburgh.

I don't fancy Godman as a goal kicker.

buck65

Dragons

I think Edinburgh are flattering to decieve a bit there too. Of the current Top 5 they are the weakest team in my book. Munster need to win against Glasgow on Friday. Anything less will end our participation in the league. Leinster the following week will be a strange one as both teams look to ease their frontliners back into the side and the result could well be a lottery.
Some good games to come alright and this play off system is keeping us all interested to the last week. Otherwise Leinster would have this already wrapped up in my view.
I feel the Scottish teams will fade a bit though and the Ospreys may have enough to clinch it along with Munster , Leinster and Glasgow.

thomond2006

Ospreys

The Ospreys are in trouble again!

The Ospreys could face a points deduction because of their request to postpone a rescheduled Magners League clash with Ulster, meaning that the Welsh region are under investigation for the third time this season.

Now the star-studded squad has raised eyebrows in the Magners League, with an inquiry into events surrounding the Ulster postponement.

The Ospreys claimed they didn't have enough available front-row forwards for the March 19 clash, but it has since emerged that their squad had been given that week off, raising suspicions of wrongdoing.

Ospreys assistant coach Jonathan Humphreys tried his best to explain the reasoning behind the request, but he insisted that he was the 'wrong person' to be asking.

"We were extremely short of front rowers. Cai [Griffiths] had been banned, Richard Hibbard was injured, so we would have had to go to the Premiership to fulfil the fixture."

"We would have been in a position where we would have had to start the game with uncontested scrums."

"As far as I'm concerned, that's being dealt with by the board members."

His claim about uncontested scrums may not be accurate though, as both the Blues and Dragons have had to call in outside help to bolster their front-row ranks in order to fulfil fixtures this season.

If found guilty, the Ospreys could face a possible points deduction.

http://www.rugby365.com/tournaments/magners/news/2318821.htm

PhatPiggins

Ospreys

thomond2006 wrote: »

The Ospreys are in trouble again!

Seriously who is running that club? For a pro team with such a big budget they're run like a bad tansition year project.

buck65

Dragons

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Seriously who is running that club? For a pro team with such a big budget they're run like a bad tansition year project.

You're one to talk:D

thomond2006

Ospreys

Their run-in is difficult enough without getting points deducted.

If Cardiff and Dragons were obliged to pluck from the semi-pro ranks to fulfill their fixtures, then Ospreys should be punished. They can't rearrange fixtures to suit themselves.

Co45

Ospreys

Munster actually have quite a tough run in. Leinster, Ospreys and Glasgow. If Ospreys beat Ulster and subsequently Munster they would go ahead of Munster whilst if Glasgow beat Munster they've a fairly easy run in.
Highly unlikely but Munster are going to have to beat Ospreys and Glasgow in order to be assured.

andrewdcs

Ospreys

Looking at it, I don't think Leinster or Munster will have problems making the final 4.

Ospreys "rank amateurism" with regards Magners and that crazy 3 games in a week will hurt them, they dont care anyway, once they qualify for HEC next year. Be great if they got points deducted for crying off a match. Thats J4 crap not leading Welsh side. They are an embarrassment.

I'd go Glasgow Edinburgh to give the finale that much more bite.

All Ireland all Scotland semis and final in Croker. OOOHH>

andrewdcs

Ospreys

Co45 wrote: »

Munster actually have quite a tough run in. Leinster, Ospreys and Glasgow. If Ospreys beat Ulster and subsequently Munster they would go ahead of Munster whilst if Glasgow beat Munster they've a fairly easy run in.
Highly unlikely but Munster are going to have to beat Ospreys and Glasgow in order to be assured.

Think it comes down to home and away and HEC. I can't see munster struggling too hard to grab 4th at very least. Leinster should top.

durkadurka

Dragons

If the ospreys aren't interested with their post hec fixture pile up and possible points deduction, surely the Dragons are a possibility.

Particularly if one of the scots slips up.

They are up for it anyway.

thomond2006

Ospreys

durkadurka wrote: »

If the ospreys aren't interested with their post hec fixture pile up and possible points deduction, surely the Dragons are a possibility.

Particularly if one of the scots slips up.

The Dragons can definitely win their home ties, they'll need a few bonus points to make a challenge IMO.

They have made a massive improvement this season.

Their first priority will be to secure HEC rugby next season, by finishing above Scarlets or Cardiff.

durkadurka

Dragons

thomond2006 wrote: »

The Dragons can definitely win their home ties, they'll need a few bonus points to make a challenge IMO.

They have made a massive improvement this season.

Their first priority will be to secure HEC rugby next season, by finishing above Scarlets or Cardiff.

That's not a conflicting priority though. I wouldn't be looking at bps for a couple of games yet. Teams are going to take points off each other all over the place. About 46-48 points could secure a spot.

thomond2006

Ospreys

That's Ulster out of the running.

durkadurka

Dragons

dragons at home to ospreys tomorrow, they could win that. They have an ok run in too. They're my dark horse. Edinburgh have a nasty runin and ospreys have HEC and fixture pileup and don't care methinks.

thomond2006

Ospreys

I don't think Dragons can pose a threat to the top four, winning their three home games won't be enough IMO.

If Ospreys lose tommorrow, they may well throw in the towel given their horrible run-in and HEC commitments. If Dragons win, it could become a six horse race.

Yep, Edinburgh have a tough last four fixtures, Glasgow on the other hand have it easy and should make the play-offs without too much trouble.

durkadurka

Dragons

They also have ospreys away last match, which could be winnable if its a dead rubber for ospreys. they need to win tomorrow.

Junior

Dragons

I think it's strange to see two Scottish teams so far up the league, I don't think either one of the irish provinces will really fear them, then again we didn't fear their international team either and look what happened there..

Do people think the league as it sits reflects the 6 nations ?

thomond2006

Ospreys

Not really.

For example, POC and Wallace have only played 3 ML games this season.

I'm watching Dragons vs Ospreys on S4C now. That will a big say on the table.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Dragons 11
Ospreys 0

10 minutes gone.

Good news for the top four so far.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Dragons 11
Ospreys 10

30 minutes gone.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Dragons 21
Ospreys 10

HT, cracking game.

thomond2006

Ospreys

http://www.magnersleague.com/live

This weekend's results:

Cardiff 19 - 9 Ulster
Edinburgh 24 - 20 Scarlets
Munster 27 - 19 Glasgow
Leinster 17 - 14 Connacht
Dragons 28 - 20 Ospreys

Table
Leinster 42 (game in hand)
Munster 38
Edinburgh 38
Glasgow 34
Ospreys 33 (game in hand)
Dragons 33
Cardiff 27
Ulster 25 (game in hand)
Scarlets 23
Connacht 17 (game in hand)

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Remaining Fixtures

LEINSTER: Munster (a), Ospreys (h), Glasgow (a), Edinburgh (h), Connacht (a) - Date TBC

MUNSTER: Leinster (h), Connacht (a), Ospreys (h), Cardiff (a)

EDINBURGH: Connacht (a), Dragons (a), Ulster (h), Leinster (a)

GLASGOW WARRIORS: Dragons (h), Ulster (h), Leinster (h), Scarlets (a)

OSPREYS: Scarlets (h), Ulster (a), Leinster (a), Munster (a), Dragons (h)

NEWPORT GWENT DRAGONS: Glasgow (a), Edinburgh (h), Cardiff (h), Ospreys (a)

CARDIFF BLUES: Ulster (a), Scarlets (a), Dragons (a), Munster (h)

ULSTER: Cardiff (h), Ospreys (h), Glasgow (a), Edinburgh (a), Connacht (h)

SCARLETS: Ospreys (a), Cardiff (h), Connacht (h), Glasgow (h)

CONNACHT:, Edinburgh (h), Munster (h), Scarlets (a), Ulster (a), Leinster (h)- Date TBC

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The Dragons may have made this a six-horse race. Their Heineken Cup qualification looks secure anyway. Very good performance tonight. Osprey's game in hand is against Ulster which won't be easy.

Micky Dolenz

Wow, it's pretty wide open, Fancy the top four now except replace Edinburgh with Ospreys.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Micky Dolenz wrote: »

Wow, it's pretty wide open, Fancy the top four now except replace Edinburgh with Ospreys.

Leinster are certainly through, Munster should get through too.

Glasgow have a piss easy run-in, including three consecutive home games.

I would love Dragons to get the fourth spot, they have played some fantastic rugby (including tonight) and have the lowest budget of the Welsh regions. Their run-in is iffy though.

durkadurka

Dragons

Here's how i see it, ignoring bonus points.
Leinster will win 2 more, ospreys and Edinburgh at home . 50 points

Munster will win 3 more - leinster connact and ospreys - 50 points

Edinburgh will win 2 more - connacht and Ulster - 46 points

Glasgow to win all 4 remaining games - 50 points

Ospreys to win 1 more - scarlets at home - 37 points

Dragons to win 3 more, edinburgh, cardiff and ospreys - 45 points

THats leinster and munster prob at home, glasgow a shoe in for the sf, and edinburgh and dragons fighting it out for last slot.

Maybe a touch harsh on ospreys. Big emphasis on home form.
And bonus points could be vital.
I just cant see where the 3 wins necesary will come from for ospreys:
OSPREYS: Scarlets (h), Ulster (a), Leinster (a), Munster (a), Dragons (h)

Of course the HEC qf results might change teams' emphasis somewhat.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Next Weekend's Fixtures and Predictions: (MP = Match Point)

Connacht vs Edinburgh - Connacht 1MP, Edinburgh 4MPs
Ospreys vs Scarlets - Ospreys 4MPs
Munster vs Leinster - Munster 4MPs, Leinster 1MP
Ulster vs Cardiff - Ulster 4MPs
Glasgow vs Dragons - Glasgow 4MPs

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That would make it:

Leinster 43 (game in hand: Connacht away)
Munster 42
Edinburgh 42
Glasgow 42
Ospreys 37 (game in hand: Ulster away)
Dragons 33
Cardiff 27
Ulster 29 (game in hand: Ospreys at home)
Scarlets 23
Connacht 18 (game in hand: Leinster at home)

outwest

thomond2006 wrote: »

Next Weekend's Fixtures and Predictions: (MP = Match Point)

Connacht vs Edinburgh - Connacht 1MP, Edinburgh 4MPs
Ospreys vs Scarlets - Ospreys 4MPs
Munster vs Leinster - Munster 4MPs, Leinster 1MP
Ulster vs Cardiff - Ulster 4MPs
Glasgow vs Dragons - Glasgow 4MPs

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That would make it:

Leinster 43 (game in hand: Connacht away)
Munster 42
Edinburgh 42
Glasgow 42
Ospreys 37 (game in hand: Ulster away)
Dragons 33
Cardiff 27
Ulster 29 (game in hand: Ospreys at home)
Scarlets 23
Connacht 18 (game in hand: Leinster at home)

connacht should win on friday. edenbrugh will get a bp tho

thomond2006

Ospreys

outwest wrote: »

connacht should win on friday. edenbrugh will get a bp tho

I'm not sure, Edinburgh's run-in is tricky, IMO they'll target this game.

Remember they don't have a European distraction, Connacht do.

durkadurka

Dragons

thomond2006 wrote: »

I'm not sure, Edinburgh's run-in is tricky, IMO they'll target this game.

Remember they don't have a European distraction, Connacht do.

Why did conn rest their best players if not for this game and next? It's a must win for Edinburgh. I dont fancy them away to dragons or leinster.

durkadurka

Dragons

Leinster virtually certain for a home semi now. They should probably target the first place now, to have a potential home final.
could be against munster!
Edinburgh in big trouble - they are away to the dragons next and that game could decide the 4th semi place. The connacht game should have been a win for them.

thomond2006

Ospreys

The Connacht result softens the blow of Munster's defeat a lot in terms of the table.

Leinster are assured of a home semi, well done to them.

Munster's match against the Ospreys could be a shootout for a play-off place.

Like you say durka, Edinburgh now have it very tough. Don't fancy them away to Dragons or Leinster.

The door may open to a Welsh side.

durkadurka

Dragons

Watch Ospreys sink like a stone the next fortnight...
Although if leinster were to win their qf they might put the B's out against the ospreys and give them a result.

thomond2006

Ospreys

The Dragons' record at Firhill is surprisingly excellent, I'm hoping they can do the business again on Sunday.

thomond2006

Ospreys

Very poor result for Ulster, that's them out of the race for the play-offs.

ULSTER: Ospreys (h), Glasgow (a), Edinburgh (a), Connacht (h)

CONNACHT: Munster (h), Scarlets (a), Ulster (a), Leinster (h)- Date TBC

Ulster 25 points, Connacht 21 points

There is a chance that Connacht could catch Ulster. :eek:

Brian P

Apologies if it's been asked a thousand times but are the semi-final fixtures 1st V 4th and 2nd V 3rd placed?

thomond2006

Ospreys

Brian P wrote: »

Apologies if it's been asked a thousand times but are the semi-final fixtures 1st V 4th and 2nd V 3rd placed?

Yes.

danthefan

Dragons

thomond - could I make a suggestion. Would it be possible to update the original post with the current state of the table and maybe stick the date on it?

thomond2006

Ospreys

danthefan wrote: »

thomond - could I make a suggestion. Would it be possible to update the original post with the current state of the table and maybe stick the date on it?

That's a good idea except I can't edit my OP.

Brian P

thomond2006 wrote: »

Yes.

Thanks:)

[Jackass]

Dragons

I think it's very difficult to look past Leinster for the league this year now.

They'll be tough to catch to stop them getting top spot, and with Leinsters home record, it'll take some team to stop them going all the way. (touch wood and fingers crossed).

What an amazing run of form for Leinster and Munster, silver ware is becoming an annual thing, which is great to enjoy as a supporter, especially if you've been around for all the hard times, makes it all worth while.

I'd say Munster will get to the HEC final handy enough, Leinster have a nightmare draw, but would do anything to see them join them there!! Could be 2 finals contested by Leinster and Munster this season!!

crisco10

Dragons

Whats the craic with the final location? how is that decided?

B0X

crisco10 wrote: »

Whats the craic with the final location? how is that decided?

I think it's the highest ranked team that's left gets to choose.