The 2011 Notebook

cson · 20-03-2010 10:57am #1

Anything catch the eye this year for 2011? Cue Card in the bumper obviously was mightily impressive and 10/1 for the Supreme is a bit big. Next years Gold Cup is going to be interesting.

UrbanSea · 20-03-2010 11:46am

Wonder will Big Bucks be going over fences next year? I'd like 12/1 on him in the gold cup much more than I would the 6/1 available on kauto

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 12:11pm

My two ive taken out of the week are Somersby who looks tailor made for the Gold Cup and im interested to see how Mad Max progresses as a Champion Chase candidate, both divisions look susceptible to up and comers next season.

steerforth80 · 20-03-2010 12:30pm

weapons am for the gold cup and cant have the bumper winner. bumper winners dont run well at the festival only 2 in 17 yrs... soldatino for the ch hurdle if they go that route.

Shane732 · 20-03-2010 12:32pm

greetings wrote: »

Wonder will Big Bucks be going over fences next year? I'd like 12/1 on him in the gold cup much more than I would the 6/1 available on kauto

Not a chance. Sure hasn't Ruby come out saying that he's awful over a fence. If the right Kauto turns up on the day then you'd have to think 6/1 is very good value. Being honest I don't really rate Imperial Commander that highly and find it hard to believe that he'll win a second Gold Cup.

steerforth80 · 20-03-2010 12:43pm

Shane732 wrote: »

If the right Kauto turns up on the day then you'd have to think 6/1 is very good value. .

the right kauto turned up..he could only beat a sick horse by 10l last year in the gold cup. jumpings the game and the horse didnt jump. there is no other arguement. outclassed.

Nulty · 20-03-2010 12:45pm

I'd like to say Barizan but I'm not sure where he'll find the ground he wants. If he did what he did yesterday on a flat track, 10l winner.

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 12:46pm

steerforth80 wrote: »

the right kauto turned up..he could only beat a sick horse by 10l last year in the gold cup. jumpings the game and the horse didnt jump. there is no other arguement. outclassed.

You must watch a lot of racing. :rolleyes:
Your post is completely wrong.

steerforth80 · 20-03-2010 12:50pm

mdwexford wrote: »

You must watch a lot of racing. :rolleyes:
Your post is completely wrong.

wrong how? 10 yr olds dont win gold cups and kauto won two poor gold cups. the horse isnt able for a stiff test like Cheltenham send him to kempton for those nice handy ones!

Nulty · 20-03-2010 12:50pm

Shane732 wrote: »

Not a chance. Sure hasn't Ruby come out saying that he's awful over a fence. If the right Kauto turns up on the day then you'd have to think 6/1 is very good value. Being honest I don't really rate Imperial Commander that highly and find it hard to believe that he'll win a second Gold Cup.

Seriously, believe your eyes! Ran Kauto to a nose and then hammered Denman. What more do you want? You rating system may need a service. He probably won't win next year, but he was WELL good enough to win it this year

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 12:52pm

steerforth80 wrote: »

wrong how? 10 yr olds dont win gold cups and kauto won two poor gold cups. the horse isnt able for a stiff test like Cheltenham send him to kempton for those nice handy ones!

Hahaha 2 poor Gold Cups. Not able for a stiff test, are you actually saying these words. Im not wasting any more time on you or the guy in the other thread. Enjoy having no idea about racing.

steerforth80 · 20-03-2010 12:59pm

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,354058,00.html
i have the facts you have an opinion..

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 1:03pm

No you dont, you made 3 stupid wrong comments.

Colonel Sanders · 20-03-2010 1:33pm

Cue Card put in a very taking performance in the bumper. I'm not one to take ante post prices 12 months before but hard to see how he's 12/1 for the supreme when 5/1 Dunguib was the best I saw after last year's bumper. Only a 4 year old too so should be more to come

I must e-mail Betfair to get French Opera added to the champion chase market. I backed him for the Arkle NRNB (knew deep down he'd go for the Grand Annual). If I could get a big price I'd have a small dabble, with a view to hopefully laying off shorter

The Gold Cup is interesting, surely the 'Big 2' can't win next year, both will be 11 and Denman may well be aimed at the Grand National. IC will be 10 also next year.Must have a closer look at this

Shane732 · 20-03-2010 2:33pm

steerforth80 wrote: »

the right kauto turned up..he could only beat a sick horse by 10l last year in the gold cup. jumpings the game and the horse didnt jump. there is no other arguement. outclassed.

Are you taking the piss here?

The right Kauto turned up??

Please don't insult the sport.

UrbanSea · 20-03-2010 2:33pm

Shane732 wrote: »

Not a chance. Sure hasn't Ruby come out saying that he's awful over a fence. If the right Kauto turns up on the day then you'd have to think 6/1 is very good value. Being honest I don't really rate Imperial Commander that highly and find it hard to believe that he'll win a second Gold Cup.

Sorry,didn't type in 'ruby quotes on big bucks jumping' into google before I posted,only thing I heard was paul nicholls saying that if he was over fences he would be a gold cup contender.
And I can't understand that last bit. He won the gold cup and ryanair and second in the betfair. Alright some of his results are inconsistent,but that doesn't mean he is a bad horse. He beat Kauto fair and square no excuses(and the rest of the field)

Shane732 · 20-03-2010 2:35pm

steerforth80 wrote: »

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,354058,00.html
i have the facts you have an opinion..

The facts? Yeah you've linked a 2 line summary of each horse.

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 2:39pm

He didnt beat Kauto fair and square imo, i know jumping is the name of the game but the mistake early cost him his chance. Whether he would have beaten him who knows.

IC is a very in and out animal, rarely runs 2 good races in a row and seems to save his best for Cheltenham/the festival. He will be 10 next year, i couldnt have him at 5s for next year anyway (or Kauto at 6s for that matter).

Juwwi · 20-03-2010 2:42pm

lt amazes me how when kauto star is beaten people start making excuses for him.

there was no excuses yesterday the ground was perfect he had a good preperation he just was'nt good enough
even if he had'nt of falling l doubt he would of won.

he is past his best now and 6/1 for next year is ridiculous value.

UrbanSea · 20-03-2010 2:42pm

mdwexford wrote: »

He didnt beat Kauto fair and square imo, i know jumping is the name of the game but the mistake early cost him his chance. Whether he would have beaten him who knows.

IC is a very in and out animal, rarely runs 2 good races in a row and seems to save his best for Cheltenham/the festival. He will be 10 next year, i couldnt have him at 5s for next year anyway (or Kauto at 6s for that matter).

I agree and disagree at the same time.
I agree that I'm sure kauto would have been better without the early mistake, however I still feel it was fair and square,they were both fit and healthy(As far as I'm aware).
I think your right too,I doubt I'd be backing IC next time out. And definately wouldn't for next year's GC,the same with denman and KS.
I think it has all the makings of a new champion next year,who was probably a novice this year.

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 2:58pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

lt amazes me how when kauto star is beaten people start making excuses for him.

there was no excuses yesterday the ground was perfect he had a good preperation he just was'nt good enough
even if he had'nt of falling l doubt he would of won.

he is past his best now and 6/1 for next year is ridiculous value.

Are you insane??

How was he not good enough, explain it in detail to me.

Hes past his best now yet 24 hours ago his last run was the best performance of the past 20 years or so, you think since Christmas he has become a bad horse then?

greetings wrote: »

I agree and disagree at the same time.
I agree that I'm sure kauto would have been better without the early mistake, however I still feel it was fair and square,they were both fit and healthy(As far as I'm aware).
I think your right too,I doubt I'd be backing IC next time out. And definately wouldn't for next year's GC,the same with denman and KS.
I think it has all the makings of a new champion next year,who was probably a novice this year.

Pre race yes but its much like when Azertyuiop won the 2004 Champion Chase, yes Moscow Flyer was in the field but he didnt beat him beat him because he fell. I just would have liked to see him stand up and jump and travel like he can and see then if IC was still the best horse on the day.

Yeah id much rather Somersby, Weapons Amnesty and Long Run on my side than Kauto, Denman and IC for next year.

Nulty · 20-03-2010 2:59pm

It's no excuse but Kauto was sweating up fairly badly under the saddle and between the legs before the race. He certainly wasn't 100% or else he would have got around. You can't suggest he would have beaten IC however. Only the facts can be considered. He sweated and he fell and he lost. IC won, better horse on the day.

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 3:01pm

Nulty wrote: »

It's no excuse but Kauto was sweating up fairly badly under the saddle and between the legs before the race. He certainly wasn't 100% or else he would have got around. You can't suggest he would have beaten IC however. Only the facts can be considered. He sweated and he fell and he lost. IC won, better horse on the day.

Sweating doesnt mean you wont win.
You can be 100% and still hit a fence, practically every horse falls at some stage.

Nulty · 20-03-2010 3:03pm

Your kidding. He was sweating and not because it was hot outside. He was worked up. You cannot say that did not indicate he was not himself.

The groom even said he got warm in the stable earlier. The horse is not stupid. It knows its there to race and IMO *it wasn't looking forward to it.

*Pure speculation

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 3:09pm

I agree its not a positive, ive seen horses sweat up and win though.
Not ideal on Gold Cup day of course though.

Nulty · 20-03-2010 3:10pm

mdwexford wrote: »

Sweating doesnt mean you wont win.
You can be 100% and still hit a fence, practically every horse falls at some stage.

I see what you mean though. Yes its totally possible that he would fall even at 100%

Nulty · 20-03-2010 3:13pm

Back on topic, can't wait to see Berties Dream over fences. Liked the way Ted Walsh said in the preview/build up "He stays forever."

Gold Cup horse?:p

Juwwi · 20-03-2010 3:14pm

mdwexford wrote: »

Are you insane??

How was he not good enough, explain it in detail to me.

Hes past his best now yet 24 hours ago his last run was the best performance of the past 20 years or so, you think since Christmas he has become a bad horse then?

l would of taught it was obvious how he was'nt good enough.
he did'nt jump aswell as the others and fell.
the fences are there to be jumped.

and yes he is past his best that is a fact.
l didnt say he was a bad horse

he is 10 now and next year he will 11 and l cant see how he can win it at 11 years of age.

he will probably win the king george next year
as kempton suits him better than cheltenham.

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 3:20pm

So because he fell he wasnt good enough, i disagree, any horse can hit a fence or fall, doesnt mean they are not good enough.

You have no evidence to show he has declined.

Id be fairly sure he will not win it next year.
He might win the King George but Long Run hopefully with Barry on board and a summer of schooling will be a formidable opponent.

Nulty · 20-03-2010 3:21pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

and yes he is past his best that is a fact.
l didnt say he was a bad horse

Depends on what you consider was his best.

Was it unbeaten 06/07 season culminating in GC?
Or King George last December?

I think he's still capable of a King George romp, Not a season like 06/07

RichieLawlor · 20-03-2010 4:28pm

mdwexford wrote: »

So because he fell he wasnt good enough, i disagree, any horse can hit a fence or fall, doesnt mean they are not good enough.

You have no evidence to show he has declined.

Id be fairly sure he will not win it next year.
He might win the King George but Long Run hopefully with Barry on board and a summer of schooling will be a formidable opponent.

Id be willing to bet youll never see anyone but Sam Whaley-Cohen on Long Run, unless he is injured/dead. The horses owner has openly stated he get more satifaction from his son riding his horses than anything else.

Juwwi · 20-03-2010 5:31pm

mdwexford wrote: »

So because he fell he wasnt good enough, i disagree, any horse can hit a fence or fall, doesnt mean they are not good enough.

You have no evidence to show he has declined.

fair enough lm stating facts when its realy just my opinion.
l have no evidence but in my opinion he was'nt going to win yesterday if he stood up.
l think he would of been 3rd.

the reason l posted on this thread was to point out that people making excuses for the horse every time he loses is getting stupid at this stage.

people saying the horse sweating up and hitting fences early are excuses.

1 last question in your opinion do u think the horse isnt in decline and is as good as ever?

Juwwi · 20-03-2010 5:35pm

Nulty wrote: »

Depends on what you consider was his best.

Was it unbeaten 06/07 season culminating in GC?
Or King George last December?

I think he's still capable of a King George romp, Not a season like 06/07

l'd say he peaked in 06/07 season.

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 5:50pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

fair enough lm stating facts when its realy just my opinion.
l have no evidence but in my opinion he was'nt going to win yesterday if he stood up.
l think he would of been 3rd.

the reason l posted on this thread was to point out that people making excuses for the horse every time he loses is getting stupid at this stage.

people saying the horse sweating up and hitting fences early are excuses.

1 last question in your opinion do u think the horse isnt in decline and is as good as ever?

When do people make excuses, he is the best horse of the last 30 years, one of the best of all time, no excuses are needed.

I have seen nothing to say he is, i will see how he does on his next 2 runs.
In theory though most 10yo's are coming to the end of their career and slightly declining but the last time he stood up 3 months ago he put in one of the best performances of all time so who knows, this is no ordinary horse.

Nulty · 20-03-2010 5:56pm

They're not excuses, they are well justified factors in predicting and judging a horses performance. He wasn't good enough on the day - fact.

He sweat up and that is a clear indication that he wasn't right - fact. It's out of the ordinary - fact.

Two time Cheltenham Gold Cup horse, wins by a DISTANCE last time out in a Grade One. Sweats in the stables and then again on course, hits two fences and falls.

Coincidence? No. He wasn't right.

I promise you I'm not defending Kauto Star. I have no effection for the horse, I backed IC. And then Denman when I saw the sweating. These are simple objective points that cannot and should not be ignored.

mike65 · 20-03-2010 6:05pm

Well done chaps, a thread about next years prospects gets (predictably) derailed by willy waving from the usual suspects. I fancy neither KS or Denman will even be at the Festival next wear.

Morgans · 20-03-2010 6:06pm

I dont think we have any evidence that Kauto Star wasnt himself yesterday. He was jumping so well early on that I was saying that there wont be any excuses of the like of 08 where he was never travelling. I was happy Kauto Star was travelling through the first mile better than Denman. Horses make mistakes and Kauto Star made one unfortunately. A bad one. After that it was an uphill battle. It could be argued that the horse didnt travel as well after the mistake. He wasnt making ground on the flat. It may be that the horse wasnt himself at all on the day, that the sweating etc played its part, but the percentage call is that he did some harm to himself in the mistake.

The idea that the winner of two gold cups, four king george's, a tingle creek, two betfair chases etc isn't one of the very very best in history is nonsense. The idea that his two Gold Cup wins were poor is also laughable.

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 6:16pm

Nulty wrote: »

They're not excuses, they are well justified factors in predicting and judging a horses performance. He wasn't good enough on the day - fact.

Not a fact.
His jumping wasnt good enough on the day, thats all you're getting out of me.

mike65 wrote: »

Well done chaps, a thread about next years prospects gets (predictably) derailed by willy waving from the usual suspects. I fancy neither KS or Denman will even be at the Festival next wear.

What do you contribute around here, nothing thats what.
Yeah good fancy out of thin air, nice job.

Morgans wrote: »

I dont think we have any evidence that Kauto Star wasnt himself yesterday. He was jumping so well early on that I was saying that there wont be any excuses of the like of 08 where he was never travelling. I was happy Kauto Star was travelling through the first mile better than Denman. Horses make mistakes and Kauto Star made one unfortunately. A bad one. After that it was an uphill battle. It could be argued that the horse didnt travel as well after the mistake. He wasnt making ground on the flat. It may be that the horse wasnt himself at all on the day, that the sweating etc played its part, but the percentage call is that he did some harm to himself in the mistake.

The idea that the winner of two gold cups, four king george's, a tingle creek, two betfair chases etc isn't one of the very very best in history is nonsense. The idea that his two Gold Cup wins were poor is also laughable.

2 Tingle Creeks

Nulty · 20-03-2010 6:21pm

What are you saying?

He WAS good enough on the day AND his jumping wasn't good enough on the day?

Get a glass of water cause I think you just had a bang on the head

mike65 · 20-03-2010 6:23pm

mdwexford apart from abusing all and sundry what do you contribute?

Anyway Denman and KS are both 'over the top', they will not be at the level that saw them win their respective GCs again and I don't think Nichols will be sentimental and enter them for the sake of it (he's far too good for that).

IC will be entered if he is fit regardless of anything else as he has something to defend.

RichieLawlor · 20-03-2010 6:26pm

mike65 wrote: »

mdwexford apart from abusing all and sundry what do you contribute?

He doesnt, he wouldnt dare cross morgans, hes like a lap dog.

mike65 · 20-03-2010 6:26pm

Maybe I was thinking of you

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 6:31pm

Nulty wrote: »

What are you saying?

He WAS good enough on the day AND his jumping wasn't good enough on the day?

Get a glass of water cause I think you just had a bang on the head

Ding ding ding, prize for that man.

mike65 wrote: »

mdwexford apart from abusing all and sundry what do you contribute?

Anyway Denman and KS are both 'over the top', they will not be at the level that saw them win their respective GCs again and I don't think Nichols will be sentimental and enter them for the sake of it (he's far too good for that).

IC will be entered if he is fit regardless of anything else as he has something to defend.

Point out an example of me abusing anyone pre Cheltenham, i am usually open to sensible debate. Post Cheltenham some of the rubbish posted here has grinded my gears and i have reacted.

You have no idea if Kauto is gone or not, its pure speculation.

<snip>

Morgans · 20-03-2010 6:32pm

Nulty wrote: »

What are you saying?

He WAS good enough on the day AND his jumping wasn't good enough on the day?

Get a glass of water cause I think you just had a bang on the head

Is this to me?

His jumping wasn't good enough. End of.

What is debatable is whether at his best the mistake would have stopped him from winning. He wasnt going to win when he fell.

He looked to be travelling perfectly well, and jumping brilliantly before the mistake, suggesting that the sweating wasnt a factor, and that the horse was ready to run for its life. Then again, several Nicholls horses failed to fire during the week. Master Minded, Tricky Trickster, Alfie Sherrin, Rivalliste, etc etc.

Nulty · 20-03-2010 6:36pm

<Snip>

BRING ON THE FLAT SEASON

:pac::pac::pac:

Nulty · 20-03-2010 6:37pm

Morgans wrote: »

Is this to me?

His jumping wasn't good enough. End of.

What is debatable is whether at his best the mistake would have stopped him from winning. He wasnt going to win when he fell.

He looked to be travelling perfectly well, and jumping brilliantly before the mistake, suggesting that the sweating wasnt a factor, and that the horse was ready to run for its life. Then again, several Nicholls horses failed to fire during the week. Master Minded, Tricky Trickster, Alfie Sherrin, Rivalliste, etc etc.

no, mdwex

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 6:37pm

Nulty wrote: »

Hopefully in a month mdwexford you'll be off somewhere in thickest wexford waiting for Cheltenham 2011.

BRING ON THE FLAT SEASON

:pac::pac::pac:

Well after Punchestown i will.

Ive no time for those money hungry flat ponces.

Nulty · 20-03-2010 6:39pm

Maybe you still haven't realised its about the horses and not the ponces.

Or are the horses the money hungry ponces

mdwexford · 20-03-2010 6:41pm

Nulty wrote: »

Maybe you still haven't realised its about the horses and not the ponces.

Or are the horses the money hungry ponces

Um horses cant spend money so im thinking no.

Flat is so money based i just dislike it, rack up a few wins and retire asap so we can make money off breeding. Anyway thats a debate for another day.

Nulty · 20-03-2010 6:50pm

mdwexford wrote: »

Um horses cant spend money so im thinking no.

Flat is so money based i just dislike it, rack up a few wins and retire asap so we can make money off breeding. Anyway thats a debate for another day.

Ding, ding, ding Give this man a prize

krustydoyle · 20-03-2010 7:15pm

Anyways its great reading all the different opinions but Kauto just wasnt good enough on the day and to agree with an earlier poster nicholls horses didnt fire at all this week..

Another point id like to make is neither Kauto or Denman owe anyone a cent, they've both had serious careers and i wouldnt expect much more from them.. its just not there anymore with denman not having the fight up the hill to kauto falling..

say what ye all want but i dont think we should expect much more from them

The 2011 Notebook

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