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Germany quietly pushing for a mechanism for strugglers to leave the Euro.

  • 18-03-2010 09:28PM
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭


    Anybody following the developing story detailing the attempts by some European leaders(mainly Merkel) to create a mechanism whereby those economies that continually fail to meet the budgetary criteria required may be quietly "allowed"/asked to leave the single currency and yet remain members of the EU. At the moment all eyes seem to be on Greece, but are we not on the steps up to our go on that particular slide? What exactly are the implications for Ireland of this, assuming it eventually came to pass? Methinks not too good.


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,011 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    I cant see it being credible. Its more likely Germany will exit. If a weak, or struggling economy (Greece or Ireland or one of the other PIIGS) were to be pushed towards the door the expectation would be they would immediately devalue so capital would flee and borrowing costs would jack up - all those loans in Euro would remain in Euro unless the state effectively defaulted on them and insisted they would pay only the nominal amount in monopoly money.

    Merkel has got to play politics too, shes probably just playing a populist flag for the voters back home who are infuriated at the idea of having to pay for bone idle spendaholics.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    I think the Germans are correct.

    The fact of the matter is that strong economies like Germany and France cannpt be expected to bail out basketcase economies like Greece and indeed this country.


    Imagine the uproar if we were asked to put our hands in our pockets to bail out another country.
    i don't see why the Germans should be expected to so.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    David McWilliams must be delighted


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    Ok, I agree, but what would the implications be for our economy? These far fetched ideas have a nasty habit of becoming reality. Our economy is not currently meeting the Euro-spec, and it didn't last year either. Probably won't next year, so while we may mock and patronisingly advise the Greeks on how to do better(Lenihan - ye, that was you boy), what happens if we find ourselves being carried out by the EuroBouncers ourselves? Fancy going back to the Punt anybody! First the job losses reversed all employment gains of the Tigger years, will being possibly re-punted be the final straw? And I know its tiger, I just think tigger describes it better.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 879 ✭✭✭woodseb


    Germans are playing hardball at the moment but i can't see any eventuality that some country is forced to leave the Euro. Merkel was in favour of some sort of bailout along with Sarkozy but she is rolling back on these comments after it unsurprisingly didn't go down well with ze germans

    there's important regional elections in france now and in germany in May - looks like they will put this on the long finger and hope Greece can muddle through until after then


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,011 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Not sure Id include France in the list of strong economies hinault. The French have been giving out to the Germans recently saying they have to loosen up. It might be optimistic to assume the French opposition to German policy is entirely altruistic. France were one of the first to breach the Growth and Stability pact I believe.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    dunsandin wrote: »
    Ok, I agree, but what would the implications be for our economy? These far fetched ideas have a nasty habit of becoming reality. Our economy is not currently meeting the Euro-spec, and it didn't last year either. Probably won't next year, so while we may mock and patronisingly advise the Greeks on how to do better(Lenihan - ye, that was you boy), what happens if we find ourselves being carried out by the EuroBouncers ourselves? Fancy going back to the Punt anybody! First the job losses reversed all employment gains of the Tigger years, will being possibly re-punted be the final straw? And I know its tiger, I just think tigger describes it better.

    Point taken.

    The Dept of Finance cheerleaders keep waffling about how the EU Commission think that "Ireland is taking the required measures to deal with their deficit".

    What the Commission fail to see is that the situation which arose in the first place, should not have been allowed materialise.
    The culpable parties like the Regulators, central bank etc were asleep at the wheel.

    And secondly, the cure that the Commission are praising, is actually killing this economy and will kill this economy for the next several years.


    We don't deserve any help.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    Some commentators are saying that they never intended paying for a bail out, they just made soothing noises and backed away slowly. It has been mooted that the bigger players would be quite happy to wave goodbye to the piigs from the euro. Italy has itself expressed a desire to leave the single currency, so that fate may well suit the Its, but would it suit Paddy? Anybody aware of what the implications would be? And the likliehood? And our version of meeting the need to deal with our budget defecit head on is like throwing a cup of water on your blazing house, while roaring to all and sundry that you have it under control.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    We probably dont deserve any help, but without it we are sunk. BUT, what would happen if we were flung out of the Euro?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    there where several threads on Ireland leaving euro scenario before :)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    Goodie gumdrops, but now it is one more tenuous step closer to becoming a reality and not a hypothetical. If that is not worth debating on an economy forum, I dont know what is. Its a bit like a nuclear bomb hanging over us and choosing to ignore it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    dunsandin wrote: »
    We probably dont deserve any help, but without it we are sunk. BUT, what would happen if we were flung out of the Euro?

    What would happen is that we would sink without a trace, if we get removed from the Euro.

    We would be forced to reintroduce the punt and - because our fundamentals are crap anyway - the punt would sink like a proverbial stone.

    The fundamentals whether we are in the EURO or outside the Euro : determine our fate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    So, possibly worth talking about then?:):D Or are these new developments of no interest to us - like the "Emergency".


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    dunsandin wrote: »
    Goodie gumdrops, but now it is one more tenuous step closer to becoming a reality and not a hypothetical. If that is not worth debating on an economy forum, I dont know what is. Its a bit like a nuclear bomb hanging over us and choosing to ignore it.

    thinking about it makes me depressed

    we need the euro more than it needs us


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    dunsandin wrote: »
    So, possibly worth talking about then?:):D Or are these new developments of no interest to us - like the "Emergency".


    To an extent the new developments are immaterial, because the fundamental here are screwed.

    And looking at the huge amounts of capital that the State (taxpayer) will have to transfuse to the likes of Anglo going forward, make our situation worse.

    Sheer madness that we will be paying in €12b in to sustain Anglo.
    Absolute madness.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    thinking about it makes me depressed

    we need the euro more than it needs us

    Couldn't have said it better, ei!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 96 ✭✭Oisintarrant


    Im not going to pretend to know what Im talking about so..
    anywho... if you look at economies like New Zealand, they have theyre own currency, about the same size country as us and they get along just fine. I would have thought the celtic tiger had kicked off before the euro change


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Im not going to pretend to know what Im talking about so..
    anywho... if you look at economies like New Zealand, they have theyre own currency, about the same size country as us and they get along just fine. I would have thought the celtic tiger had kicked off before the euro change

    yeh sure
    In 1987, Andy Krieger, a 32-year-old currency trader at Bankers Trust, was carefully watching the currencies that were rallying against the dollar following the Black Monday crash. As investors and companies rushed out of the American dollar and into other currencies that had suffered less damage in the market crash, there were bound to be some currencies that would become fundamentally overvalued, creating a good opportunity for arbitrage. The currency Krieger targeted was the New Zealand dollar, also known as the kiwi.

    Using the relatively new techniques afforded by options, Krieger took up a short position against the kiwi worth hundreds of millions. In fact, his sell orders were said to exceed the money supply of New Zealand. The kiwi dropped sharply as the selling pressure combined with the lack of currency in circulation. It yo-yoed between a 3% and 5% loss while Krieger made millions for his employers.

    One part of the legend recounts a worried New Zealand government official calling up Krieger's bosses and threatening Bankers Trust to try to get Krieger out of the kiwi. Krieger later left Bankers Trust to go work for George Soros

    we would be ravaged and raped in no time, hell it be a sure bet that the New Punt would sink


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    hinault wrote: »
    To an extent the new developments are immaterial, because the fundamental here are screwed.

    And looking at the huge amounts of capital that the State (taxpayer) will have to transfuse to the likes of Anglo going forward, make our situation worse.

    Sheer madness that we will be paying in €12b in to sustain Anglo.
    Absolute madness.

    I agree fully. I also agree that leaving the Euro would be a massive blow, but is it possible, probable, and more importantly, survivable? Are we facing a future where we will be envious of Albania?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    dunsandin wrote: »
    I agree fully. I also agree that leaving the Euro would be a massive blow, but is it possible, probable, and more importantly, survivable? Are we facing a future where we will be envious of Albania?

    You're asking the same question repeatedly.

    Whether we're asked to stay or asked to leave, we're snookered.

    As ei said, we need the euro more than the euro needs us.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    I was looking for another view Hiney, possibly with more to say than "We're doomed". I'm not doomed, and no doubt others feel the same. The status quo may well be doomed. That old spectre of the IMF might be like fearing the bogeyman while not seeing the juggernaut looming at you. If we do end up like Albania, I'll be the one with the horse and cart!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    dunsandin wrote: »
    I was looking for another view Hiney, possibly with more to say than "We're doomed". I'm not doomed, and no doubt others feel the same. The status quo may well be doomed. That old spectre of the IMF might be like fearing the bogeyman while not seeing the juggernaut looming at you. If we do end up like Albania, I'll be the one with the horse and cart!

    I don't think that we will be asked to leave the Euro.

    I think our politicians realise that we can't survive and they will beg the EU to stay in, if the pressure to leave is applied.
    The tipping point for the EU is whether or not our continued membership is a drag on the value of the Euro and a drag on the
    systemic balance within the EU zone


    In order to stay in the club the EU will demand and receive - and will see implemented - draconian measures to turn this economy around.
    In the meantime, the patient will remain in ICU for the best part of the next decade.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    Pretty much what I think myself. Makes rather a moot point of all the talk and teeth gnashing regarding cuts to PS pay etc. Its like life - we fuss and worry about things, and then a big problem blindsides us that makes all our little worries and fights seem minor. This could well be the fly in FF's ointment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    dunsandin wrote: »
    Pretty much what I think myself. Makes rather a moot point of all the talk and teeth gnashing regarding cuts to PS pay etc. Its like life - we fuss and worry about things, and then a big problem blindsides us that makes all our little worries and fights seem minor. This could well be the fly in FF's ointment.

    What you see currently in the Eurozone is the underpinned by the two disparate entities attempting to be fused together.

    I'll explain.

    You have the northern European countries where austerity, rationality, restraint and self sufficiency is practiced and is encouraged.
    Those nations operate on a different economic ethos.

    The PIIGS on the otherhand tend to be prolifigate, irrational, lack restraint and expect handouts when the going gets tough.

    I'll put forward the Corrib gasfield as an example.
    A northern European country, would attempt to develop a national based oil company to develop that asset.
    The Norwegians did it when they struck oil off their coast.

    What do we do?
    We immediately ask a foreign company in to develop the field.
    Instead we could have taken our time and developed the expertise here to build a national oil company and to develop the field ourselves, thus creating employment/expertise and saving ourselves money in the long term.

    What would Germany do if it struck oil of it's coast?
    They'd adopt the Norwegian model.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    Ahem, I'll just quietly admit that I'm German, cough,cough.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    dunsandin wrote: »
    Ahem, I'll just quietly admit that I'm German, cough,cough.

    I'm Irish - of German descent!

    But you know what I mean, don't you?
    Germany/Holland/Norway etc approach and outlook is at odds with the approach and outlook of the PIIGS.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,007 ✭✭✭✭thebman


    I think we'll see tigher measures come in for wreckless countries like us so that the other countries are no longer simply warning us that we are making economic mistakes.

    I can understand German's problem with bailing out other countries. I think for the long term stability of the EU, it would be best to take the hit but thats just me.

    I think Merkel is trying to look tough for the home crowd but once the doors are close and discussion starts, she knows whats at stake if the Euro goes down the tube, it will not be the end of the EU's problems but the beginning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    thebman wrote: »
    I think we'll see tigher measures come in for wreckless countries like us so that the other countries are no longer simply warning us that we are making economic mistakes.

    I can understand German's problem with bailing out other countries. I think for the long term stability of the EU, it would be best to take the hit but thats just me.

    I think Merkel is trying to look tough for the home crowd but once the doors are close and discussion starts, she knows whats at stake if the Euro goes down the tube, it will not be the end of the EU's problems but the beginning.

    I travel to Germany quite a bit.

    I've spoken to quite a few Germans and they tell me that there were two
    catastrophes.
    The first catastrophe was the effective devaluation of the Mark in the 1990's .
    The second catastrophe is that Germans now appear to view the Euro as a failure because their countrys economic performance underpins the success or otherwise of the Euro and the Germans now say "what do we get in return?"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 246 ✭✭james finn


    germany should not have to bail out anyone


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 879 ✭✭✭dunsandin


    I am of German descent, Irish mum, german Dad, I work for companies that are almost , but not all, German, and are all doing exceptionally well during this recession - you know em! I do to a certain extent resent the way Germany is expected to bail out the reckless, and also I doubt their capacity. I have visited central Europe, Germany,Czech etc a lot lately, and they are just holding their own at present. I do not think that they have the reserves themselves to address Europes woes. I do not see why they should pour money into Anglo for us, its an Irish cock up, and should be dealt with by Ireland. To a certain extent, I think ireland leaving the euro would be good for the euro, if not for ireland. I fully believe in personal accountability, I expect nobody to bail me out, have never troubled the state for a penny, and expect the state to conduct itself the same. That Krieger lad sounds brilliant by the way.;)


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