Germany quietly pushing for a mechanism for strugglers to leave the Euro.

dunsandin

Anybody following the developing story detailing the attempts by some European leaders(mainly Merkel) to create a mechanism whereby those economies that continually fail to meet the budgetary criteria required may be quietly "allowed"/asked to leave the single currency and yet remain members of the EU. At the moment all eyes seem to be on Greece, but are we not on the steps up to our go on that particular slide? What exactly are the implications for Ireland of this, assuming it eventually came to pass? Methinks not too good.

Sand

I cant see it being credible. Its more likely Germany will exit. If a weak, or struggling economy (Greece or Ireland or one of the other PIIGS) were to be pushed towards the door the expectation would be they would immediately devalue so capital would flee and borrowing costs would jack up - all those loans in Euro would remain in Euro unless the state effectively defaulted on them and insisted they would pay only the nominal amount in monopoly money.

Merkel has got to play politics too, shes probably just playing a populist flag for the voters back home who are infuriated at the idea of having to pay for bone idle spendaholics.

hinault

I think the Germans are correct.

The fact of the matter is that strong economies like Germany and France cannpt be expected to bail out basketcase economies like Greece and indeed this country.


Imagine the uproar if we were asked to put our hands in our pockets to bail out another country.
i don't see why the Germans should be expected to so.

ei.sdraob

David McWilliams must be delighted

dunsandin

Ok, I agree, but what would the implications be for our economy? These far fetched ideas have a nasty habit of becoming reality. Our economy is not currently meeting the Euro-spec, and it didn't last year either. Probably won't next year, so while we may mock and patronisingly advise the Greeks on how to do better(Lenihan - ye, that was you boy), what happens if we find ourselves being carried out by the EuroBouncers ourselves? Fancy going back to the Punt anybody! First the job losses reversed all employment gains of the Tigger years, will being possibly re-punted be the final straw? And I know its tiger, I just think tigger describes it better.

woodseb

Germans are playing hardball at the moment but i can't see any eventuality that some country is forced to leave the Euro. Merkel was in favour of some sort of bailout along with Sarkozy but she is rolling back on these comments after it unsurprisingly didn't go down well with ze germans

there's important regional elections in france now and in germany in May - looks like they will put this on the long finger and hope Greece can muddle through until after then

Sand

Not sure Id include France in the list of strong economies hinault. The French have been giving out to the Germans recently saying they have to loosen up. It might be optimistic to assume the French opposition to German policy is entirely altruistic. France were one of the first to breach the Growth and Stability pact I believe.

hinault

dunsandin wrote: »

Ok, I agree, but what would the implications be for our economy? These far fetched ideas have a nasty habit of becoming reality. Our economy is not currently meeting the Euro-spec, and it didn't last year either. Probably won't next year, so while we may mock and patronisingly advise the Greeks on how to do better(Lenihan - ye, that was you boy), what happens if we find ourselves being carried out by the EuroBouncers ourselves? Fancy going back to the Punt anybody! First the job losses reversed all employment gains of the Tigger years, will being possibly re-punted be the final straw? And I know its tiger, I just think tigger describes it better.

Point taken.

The Dept of Finance cheerleaders keep waffling about how the EU Commission think that "Ireland is taking the required measures to deal with their deficit".

What the Commission fail to see is that the situation which arose in the first place, should not have been allowed materialise.
The culpable parties like the Regulators, central bank etc were asleep at the wheel.

And secondly, the cure that the Commission are praising, is actually killing this economy and will kill this economy for the next several years.


We don't deserve any help.

dunsandin

Some commentators are saying that they never intended paying for a bail out, they just made soothing noises and backed away slowly. It has been mooted that the bigger players would be quite happy to wave goodbye to the piigs from the euro. Italy has itself expressed a desire to leave the single currency, so that fate may well suit the Its, but would it suit Paddy? Anybody aware of what the implications would be? And the likliehood? And our version of meeting the need to deal with our budget defecit head on is like throwing a cup of water on your blazing house, while roaring to all and sundry that you have it under control.

dunsandin

We probably dont deserve any help, but without it we are sunk. BUT, what would happen if we were flung out of the Euro?

ei.sdraob

there where several threads on Ireland leaving euro scenario before

dunsandin

Goodie gumdrops, but now it is one more tenuous step closer to becoming a reality and not a hypothetical. If that is not worth debating on an economy forum, I dont know what is. Its a bit like a nuclear bomb hanging over us and choosing to ignore it.

hinault

dunsandin wrote: »

We probably dont deserve any help, but without it we are sunk. BUT, what would happen if we were flung out of the Euro?

What would happen is that we would sink without a trace, if we get removed from the Euro.

We would be forced to reintroduce the punt and - because our fundamentals are crap anyway - the punt would sink like a proverbial stone.

The fundamentals whether we are in the EURO or outside the Euro : determine our fate.

dunsandin

So, possibly worth talking about then?:):D Or are these new developments of no interest to us - like the "Emergency".

ei.sdraob

dunsandin wrote: »

Goodie gumdrops, but now it is one more tenuous step closer to becoming a reality and not a hypothetical. If that is not worth debating on an economy forum, I dont know what is. Its a bit like a nuclear bomb hanging over us and choosing to ignore it.

thinking about it makes me depressed

we need the euro more than it needs us

hinault

dunsandin wrote: »

So, possibly worth talking about then?:):D Or are these new developments of no interest to us - like the "Emergency".

To an extent the new developments are immaterial, because the fundamental here are screwed.

And looking at the huge amounts of capital that the State (taxpayer) will have to transfuse to the likes of Anglo going forward, make our situation worse.

Sheer madness that we will be paying in €12b in to sustain Anglo.
Absolute madness.

hinault

ei.sdraob wrote: »

thinking about it makes me depressed

we need the euro more than it needs us

Couldn't have said it better, ei!

Oisintarrant

Im not going to pretend to know what Im talking about so..
anywho... if you look at economies like New Zealand, they have theyre own currency, about the same size country as us and they get along just fine. I would have thought the celtic tiger had kicked off before the euro change

ei.sdraob

Oisintarrant wrote: »

Im not going to pretend to know what Im talking about so..
anywho... if you look at economies like New Zealand, they have theyre own currency, about the same size country as us and they get along just fine. I would have thought the celtic tiger had kicked off before the euro change

yeh sure

In 1987, Andy Krieger, a 32-year-old currency trader at Bankers Trust, was carefully watching the currencies that were rallying against the dollar following the Black Monday crash. As investors and companies rushed out of the American dollar and into other currencies that had suffered less damage in the market crash, there were bound to be some currencies that would become fundamentally overvalued, creating a good opportunity for arbitrage. The currency Krieger targeted was the New Zealand dollar, also known as the kiwi.

Using the relatively new techniques afforded by options, Krieger took up a short position against the kiwi worth hundreds of millions. In fact, his sell orders were said to exceed the money supply of New Zealand. The kiwi dropped sharply as the selling pressure combined with the lack of currency in circulation. It yo-yoed between a 3% and 5% loss while Krieger made millions for his employers.

One part of the legend recounts a worried New Zealand government official calling up Krieger's bosses and threatening Bankers Trust to try to get Krieger out of the kiwi. Krieger later left Bankers Trust to go work for George Soros

we would be ravaged and raped in no time, hell it be a sure bet that the New Punt would sink

dunsandin

hinault wrote: »

To an extent the new developments are immaterial, because the fundamental here are screwed.

And looking at the huge amounts of capital that the State (taxpayer) will have to transfuse to the likes of Anglo going forward, make our situation worse.

Sheer madness that we will be paying in €12b in to sustain Anglo.
Absolute madness.

I agree fully. I also agree that leaving the Euro would be a massive blow, but is it possible, probable, and more importantly, survivable? Are we facing a future where we will be envious of Albania?

hinault

dunsandin wrote: »

I agree fully. I also agree that leaving the Euro would be a massive blow, but is it possible, probable, and more importantly, survivable? Are we facing a future where we will be envious of Albania?

You're asking the same question repeatedly.

Whether we're asked to stay or asked to leave, we're snookered.

As ei said, we need the euro more than the euro needs us.

dunsandin

I was looking for another view Hiney, possibly with more to say than "We're doomed". I'm not doomed, and no doubt others feel the same. The status quo may well be doomed. That old spectre of the IMF might be like fearing the bogeyman while not seeing the juggernaut looming at you. If we do end up like Albania, I'll be the one with the horse and cart!

hinault

dunsandin wrote: »

I was looking for another view Hiney, possibly with more to say than "We're doomed". I'm not doomed, and no doubt others feel the same. The status quo may well be doomed. That old spectre of the IMF might be like fearing the bogeyman while not seeing the juggernaut looming at you. If we do end up like Albania, I'll be the one with the horse and cart!

I don't think that we will be asked to leave the Euro.

I think our politicians realise that we can't survive and they will beg the EU to stay in, if the pressure to leave is applied.
The tipping point for the EU is whether or not our continued membership is a drag on the value of the Euro and a drag on the
systemic balance within the EU zone


In order to stay in the club the EU will demand and receive - and will see implemented - draconian measures to turn this economy around.
In the meantime, the patient will remain in ICU for the best part of the next decade.

dunsandin

Pretty much what I think myself. Makes rather a moot point of all the talk and teeth gnashing regarding cuts to PS pay etc. Its like life - we fuss and worry about things, and then a big problem blindsides us that makes all our little worries and fights seem minor. This could well be the fly in FF's ointment.

hinault

dunsandin wrote: »

Pretty much what I think myself. Makes rather a moot point of all the talk and teeth gnashing regarding cuts to PS pay etc. Its like life - we fuss and worry about things, and then a big problem blindsides us that makes all our little worries and fights seem minor. This could well be the fly in FF's ointment.

What you see currently in the Eurozone is the underpinned by the two disparate entities attempting to be fused together.

I'll explain.

You have the northern European countries where austerity, rationality, restraint and self sufficiency is practiced and is encouraged.
Those nations operate on a different economic ethos.

The PIIGS on the otherhand tend to be prolifigate, irrational, lack restraint and expect handouts when the going gets tough.

I'll put forward the Corrib gasfield as an example.
A northern European country, would attempt to develop a national based oil company to develop that asset.
The Norwegians did it when they struck oil off their coast.

What do we do?
We immediately ask a foreign company in to develop the field.
Instead we could have taken our time and developed the expertise here to build a national oil company and to develop the field ourselves, thus creating employment/expertise and saving ourselves money in the long term.

What would Germany do if it struck oil of it's coast?
They'd adopt the Norwegian model.

dunsandin

Ahem, I'll just quietly admit that I'm German, cough,cough.

hinault

dunsandin wrote: »

Ahem, I'll just quietly admit that I'm German, cough,cough.

I'm Irish - of German descent!

But you know what I mean, don't you?
Germany/Holland/Norway etc approach and outlook is at odds with the approach and outlook of the PIIGS.

thebman

I think we'll see tigher measures come in for wreckless countries like us so that the other countries are no longer simply warning us that we are making economic mistakes.

I can understand German's problem with bailing out other countries. I think for the long term stability of the EU, it would be best to take the hit but thats just me.

I think Merkel is trying to look tough for the home crowd but once the doors are close and discussion starts, she knows whats at stake if the Euro goes down the tube, it will not be the end of the EU's problems but the beginning.

hinault

thebman wrote: »

I think we'll see tigher measures come in for wreckless countries like us so that the other countries are no longer simply warning us that we are making economic mistakes.

I can understand German's problem with bailing out other countries. I think for the long term stability of the EU, it would be best to take the hit but thats just me.

I think Merkel is trying to look tough for the home crowd but once the doors are close and discussion starts, she knows whats at stake if the Euro goes down the tube, it will not be the end of the EU's problems but the beginning.

I travel to Germany quite a bit.

I've spoken to quite a few Germans and they tell me that there were two
catastrophes.
The first catastrophe was the effective devaluation of the Mark in the 1990's .
The second catastrophe is that Germans now appear to view the Euro as a failure because their countrys economic performance underpins the success or otherwise of the Euro and the Germans now say "what do we get in return?"

james finn

germany should not have to bail out anyone

dunsandin

I am of German descent, Irish mum, german Dad, I work for companies that are almost , but not all, German, and are all doing exceptionally well during this recession - you know em! I do to a certain extent resent the way Germany is expected to bail out the reckless, and also I doubt their capacity. I have visited central Europe, Germany,Czech etc a lot lately, and they are just holding their own at present. I do not think that they have the reserves themselves to address Europes woes. I do not see why they should pour money into Anglo for us, its an Irish cock up, and should be dealt with by Ireland. To a certain extent, I think ireland leaving the euro would be good for the euro, if not for ireland. I fully believe in personal accountability, I expect nobody to bail me out, have never troubled the state for a penny, and expect the state to conduct itself the same. That Krieger lad sounds brilliant by the way.;)

ei.sdraob

dunsandin wrote: »

I am of German descent, Irish mum, german Dad, I work for companies that are almost , but not all, German, and are all doing exceptionally well during this recession - you know em! I do to a certain extent resent the way Germany is expected to bail out the reckless, and also I doubt their capacity. I have visited central Europe, Germany,Czech etc a lot lately, and they are just holding their own at present. I do not think that they have the reserves themselves to address Europes woes. I do not see why they should pour money into Anglo for us, its an Irish cock up, and should be dealt with by Ireland. To a certain extent, I think ireland leaving the euro would be good for the euro, if not for ireland. I fully believe in personal accountability, I expect nobody to bail me out, have never troubled the state for a penny, and expect the state to conduct itself the same. That Krieger lad sounds brilliant by the way.;)

its not only about Germany bailing out other states,
here in Ireland its also about people who kept their heads on having to bailout the feckless via their taxes being wasted

i don't blame people of Germany feeling the way they do about being dragged down

the tide has left an now we can see how ugly the beach is

dunsandin

dunsandin wrote: »

I am of German descent, Irish mum, german Dad, I work for companies that are almost , but not all, German, and are all doing exceptionally well during this recession - you know em! I do to a certain extent resent the way Germany is expected to bail out the reckless, and also I doubt their capacity. I have visited central Europe, Germany,Czech etc a lot lately, and they are just holding their own at present. I do not think that they have the reserves themselves to address Europes woes. I do not see why they should pour money into Anglo for us, its an Irish cock up, and should be dealt with by Ireland. To a certain extent, I think ireland leaving the euro would be good for the euro, if not for ireland. I fully believe in personal accountability, I expect nobody to bail me out, have never troubled the state for a penny, and expect the state to conduct itself the same. That Krieger lad sounds brilliant by the way.;)

Well said. We're not that bad yet in all fairness and I don't think we'll need a bailout. In fact, I could see us having to contribute towards a Greek bailout which I'm sure would go down well.

The difference between us and Greece is that we are TRYING to get our house in order. Despite the protests of the Public Sector and welfare recipients who would rather the country go down the toilet rather than take a hit to their pocket. Absolutely tiny changes in Greece are met with riots. Do they deserve a bailout? I don't think so.

If we weren't in the process of making changes for the better then I would say that we would not deserve a bailout ourselves.

Eliot Rosewater

dunsandin wrote: »

BUT, what would happen if we were flung out of the Euro?

The hypothesis is this. An Irish Government withdrawing from the Euro would probably devalue the Punt to gain competitiveness. Obviously theres no point in converting your savings to Punts only to have their value wiped clean by a Government devaluation. As a result debt will still be in Euro. With the devaluation, the price of Euro for Irish people will increase. Debt will increase.

Thats my reading of it, and I'm open to correction.

hinault wrote: »

What would Germany do if it struck oil of it's coast? They'd adopt the Norwegian model.

I don't know what inspired you to bring up this topic, but your analysis of it is wrong. The Norwegians have far more oil and gas than Ireland. Norway can afford to train specific staff because there are large amounts of resources there. Ireland has a tiny amount in comparison and thus cannot. The Shell-to-Sea position can easily be refuted by elementary economic arguments.

The point you're making is also ironic. On the one hand you label the Irish Government "prolifigate, irrational" and say that it "lacks restraint", but then you go on to suggest that this incompetent organization should also manage oil fields.

Eliot Rosewater

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

I don't know what inspired you to bring up this topic, but your analysis of it is wrong. The Norwegians have far more oil and gas than Ireland. Norway can afford to train specific staff because there are large amounts of resources there. Ireland has a tiny amount in comparison and thus cannot. The Shell-to-Sea position can easily be refuted by elementary economic arguments.

The point you're making is also ironic. On the one hand you label the Irish Government "prolifigate, irrational" and say that it "lacks restraint", but then you go on to suggest that this incompetent organization should also manage oil fields.

I was going to respond to him but chose not to. You said it better than I ever could.
Amen.

dunsandin

I'm sorry, but the corrib field is not tiny. I worked on the luas project, and alongside me were almost all foreign workers - few if any Irish men in positions of prominence, Why? We have fantastic people, why not use them. I work daily on massive pharmaceutical projects, managed and run by IRISH MEN and WOMEN. They are all hired by foreign multinationals simply on talent. BUT, when a state sponsored project is undertaken, who do the fools hire - foreigners, and foreign companies. The Americans recognise the excellence of irish Engineers and technicians, but our own govt. is blind to them and falls over itself to hire foreign companies in preference. What do you think the corrib field is worth? €25? We should have formed an Irish Company to exploit it. Your point is rubbish and typically uninformed. The Irish govt. is blind to the talent of its own people and is paying the price as a result. Your point boils my blood. Jasus.

hinault

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

I don't know what inspired you to bring up this topic, but your analysis of it is wrong. The Norwegians have far more oil and gas than Ireland. Norway can afford to train specific staff because there are large amounts of resources there. Ireland has a tiny amount in comparison and thus cannot. The Shell-to-Sea position can easily be refuted by elementary economic arguments.

The point you're making is also ironic. On the one hand you label the Irish Government "prolifigate, irrational" and say that it "lacks restraint", but then you go on to suggest that this incompetent organization should also manage oil fields.

Let me clarify.
I don't want this thread to turn in a Shell to Sea debate either.

I was trying to illustrate the difference in mindset between a northern European viewpoint and a PIIGS viewpoint.

We expect a handout from someone else once we hit problems, or we depend on someone else to develop an national asset.
We take responsibility when things are going well, but we refuse to take responsibility when the tide turns.

The inbalance throughout Europe between the PIIGS viewpoint and the Northern European viewpoint, is what is undermining the EURO.
The inbalance is largely down to the differing ethos of the PIIGS and the rest of Europe.

Eliot Rosewater

dunsandin wrote: »

who do the fools hire - foreigners, and foreign companies.

In other words: hiring foreigners is foolish. There are two words I can use to describe that point of view: xenophobic or racist. You choose.

Eliot Rosewater

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

In other words: hiring foreigners is foolish. There are two words I can use to describe that point of view: xenophobic or racist. You choose.

I guess Irish people are lucky that a lot of foreign companies are extremely foolish then.

dunsandin

It is when you have Irish workers of superior talent. Bred for export. Why? Because their masters are blind. If you dont look after your own, toiletwater, who do you look after?

ei.sdraob

hinault wrote: »

Let me clarify.
I don't want this thread to turn in a Shell to Sea debate either.

I was trying to illustrate the difference in mindset between a northern European viewpoint and a PIIGS viewpoint.

We expect a handout from someone else once we hit problems, or we depend on someone else to develop an national asset.
We take responsibility when things are going well, but we refuse to take responsibility when the tide turns.

The inbalance throughout Europe between the PIIGS viewpoint and the Northern European viewpoint, is what is undermining the EURO.
The inbalance is largely down to the differing ethos of the PIIGS and the rest of Europe.

but did the government know there was oil/gas off the coast?

from my understanding they sold contracts to explore and exploit not knowing what's there since drilling is an expensive business

im open to corrections

Eliot Rosewater

hinault wrote: »

I was trying to illustrate the difference in mindset between a northern European viewpoint and a PIIGS viewpoint.

Okay, I understand what you're trying to do. But Corrib is irrelevant to the your point. Comparing it to Norway is not comparing like with like; there are a plethora of details separating them besides Government attitudes towards natural resources. But as you said, we don't want to get off-topic.

I do accept your point by the way, to the extent that there is an attitude problem within the Governments of some countries. That is why myself and fellow economic liberals propose limiting the powers of Government. Time and time again it is seen that the institution acts irresponsibly, and primarily for the short term gain of the current administration. People constantly demand regulation of the banks, but why not go to the root of the issue and demand regulation of the Government?

hinault

dunsandin wrote: »

It is when you have Irish workers of superior talent. Bred for export. Why? Because their masters are blind. If you dont look after your own, toiletwater, who do you look after?

That talent should be put to work to develop national assets like the one in Corrib.

My point being, that a northern European country would try to protect the investment in their graduates by looking to employ them in their own country.

Instead, the taxpayer in this country having paid out millions to educate our graduates, sees these graduates having to take a boat/plane in order to earn a living.
We don't get the benefit of this investment in our own people!

All of which is a threadjack.
Can we get back on topic?

dunsandin

And who exactly would be powered to police the police? A government for the government? Would that shadow government also require an oversight commitee? Who would oversee them? A superquango? This could run and run. A better question could be, how do we avoid manouvering ourselves into the position of being asked to leave the euro, and should FF and Na Glasrai be doing all in their power to get us to a point that eliminates us from that category? Should all stops be pulled to ensure we comply with eurostat rules for membership within the Single currency. Could it be that this is just a wake up call for Ireland? Can we afford to take the risk of ignoring this? I think not...

Eliot Rosewater

dunsandin wrote: »

And who exactly would be powered to police the police?

I am saying that the constitution of Ireland should be amended to limit the power of Government. This would reduce the scope the current administration would have to abuse their power to achieve short term electoral advantage.

dunsandin

Err, and getting back to the Euro issue? by the way, s i said, i am sorry for speling you're name wrong Eliot, I now kno that it is Eliot, and not toilet- this kebord is playing ip. But plese, lets et bak on topic. Ya big baby, I said, when one of my friends ran to his mammy. Anyway, as i said, should this not be a great big wake-up call for our govt? A fate to be avoided at all costs. We all seem to be agreed that to be expelled from the euro would be a disaster. Is it not within the govt.s power to do all it can to ensure this fate does not befall us?

hinault

dunsandin wrote: »

And who exactly would be powered to police the police? A government for the government? Would that shadow government also require an oversight commitee? Who would oversee them? A superquango? This could run and run. A better question could be, how do we avoid manouvering ourselves into the position of being asked to leave the euro, and should FF and Na Glasrai be doing all in their power to get us to a point that eliminates us from that category? Should all stops be pulled to ensure we comply with eurostat rules for membership within the Single currency. Could it be that this is just a wake up call for Ireland? Can we afford to take the risk of ignoring this? I think not...

We can't afford to ignore the situation, I agree.

Scofflaw

dunsandin wrote: »

Err, and getting back to the Euro issue? by the way, s i said, i am sorry for speling you're name wrong Eliot, I now kno that it is Eliot, and not toilet- this kebord is playing ip. But plese, lets et bak on topic. Ya big baby, I said, when one of my friends ran to his mammy. Anyway, as i said, should this not be a great big wake-up call for our govt? A fate to be avoided at all costs. We all seem to be agreed that to be expelled from the euro would be a disaster. Is it not within the govt.s power to do all it can to ensure this fate does not befall us?

Banned for a week for (a) insulting another poster; (b) immature sarky response to infraction thereof; (c) attempt to imply the other poster is some kind of snitch and whinger; (d) assuming in the first place that any report was necessary; (e) silly mock-contrition that makes it clear the original insult was deliberate; (f) pseudo-clever 'explanations' that amount to repeating the insult; (f) generally making it clear that moderation shouldn't apply to you; (g) and so on.

Consider this a wake-up call to you personally.

[EDIT]Upgraded to a month, with a week's siteban, and a siteban for your re-reg account buddy4711.[/EDIT]

moderately,
Scofflaw

Count Dooku

ei.sdraob wrote: »

thinking about it makes me depressed

we need the euro more than it needs us

Everybody hopes that somebody else will pay instead of him and as result unleashed greed will destroy both
BTW, leaving euro will mostly affect public servants and welfare recipients, because more they will demand, less they will get in real value. FOREX speculators will decide their fate
Workers from export industries will be not affected so much, their companies can easily link their salaries to hard currency (probably dollar) and gain most from falling punt. If unproductive parts of society will demand more tax increases, it will be good motivation to find better place on earth for their skills

buddy4711

Would it not affect savers the worst?

buddy4711

Unless the value of a new punt rose, would our savings not be watered down - they would go down the toilet.:)