CHELTENHAM - DAY 1: 16th March

thewools

Hi guys, once again its this time of year. :cool:

All DAY 1 tips/selections etc to be posted here.

I will set up a thread for each day now

• 1:30 Spinal Research Supreme Novices´ Hurdle: Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y
• 2:05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase: Grade 1 Cl1 2m
• 2:40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase: Grade 3 Cl1 3m110y
• 3:20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy: Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y
• 4:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase): Cl2 3m7f CH4
• 4:40 David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle: Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f

Here's to Hoping

brandon_flowers

Dunguib
Sizing Europe
Calgary Bay
Punjabi (Won in the Dark e/w)
Garde Champetre
Quevaga

I know its 4 Irish winners but if ever we needed a good start it is this year.

Nozebleed

1.30 Flat Out E/W (w.Dunguib)
2.05 Sizing Europe
2.40 Great Endeavour E/W
3.20 Binocular
4.00 L'Ami
4.40 Easter Legend E/W (w.No One Tells Me)

MikeCork2009

1.30 Get Me Out Of Here (Dan Breen E/W)
2.05 Somersby
2.40 Character Building
3.20 Medermit
4.00 Silver Birch E/W
4.40 Sway E/W

A bad day for favourite backers!!

Shane732

Dunguib
Somersby
Razor Royale
Go Native
Garde Champetre
Quevega

4 Irish winners (1/2 our total on day 1!)

Shane732

MikeCork2009 wrote: »

1.30 Get Me Out Of Here (Dan Breen E/W)
2.05 Somersby
2.40 Character Building
3.20 Medermit
4.00 Silver Birch E/W
4.40 Sway E/W

A bad day for favourite backers!!

Holy **** I might as well give up if these turn out to be right!

GampDub

Blackstairmountain (E/W)
Riverside Theatre
The Package
Solwhit (forecast with Binocular)
Garde Champetre
Easter Legend (E/W)

ghosttown

1.30 - General Miller EW, 25/1 now
2.00 - sizing Europe. 5/1
2.40 - Ogee EW, 14/1 (make sure your bookie pays 5 places)
3.20 - Kyber Kim, 8/1
4.00 - Priests Leap, EW, 40/1 (only if all 16 stay in and you get paid 4 places)
4.40 - voler la Vedette, 13/8.......might be 7/4, 2/1 on the day. If she gets any skinnier, Zarinava EW at 16/1.

& a small reverse forecast on each of the above with the favourites in their races..........

Good luck everyone, only 22 1/2 hours to go !:)

evil_seed

nothing backed yet and some of these will prob change come betting time tomorrow. but for now i'm choosing:

1.30 - Get Me Out Of Here
2.05 - Somersby
2.40 - The Package
3.20 - Solwhit
4.00 - Garde Champetre
4.40 - Quevega

Warper

1.30 - Menorah - e/w PP
2.05 - Capt cee Bee
2.40 - Bensalem
3.20 - Go Native
4.00 - Garde Champetre
4.40 - Quevega

Fcuk - my picks are practically all the favs but hey.

I think we will have a great Day 1 with at least 4 winners.

crip17

1:30 Dunguib
2:05 Somersby
2:40 Benselam
3:20 Binocular
4:00 GARDE CHAMPETRE (festival banker)
4:40 Quevaga

mdwexford

The Cross Country and Mares race should be in the bag.
The Supreme Novices and Champion Hurdle we have very good chances in.
The other 2 i dont see us winning but you never know, if we can scam a win in the Will Hill and CCB gets around we could pull off a clean sweep.

nice1franko

1:30 Dunguib. Will be of to a very shaky start if he doesn't do it
2:05 Undecided... maybe hedge with Sizing Europe and Cap C B
2:40 Niche Market (small bet maybe ... one for the bar)
3:20 Khyber Kim
4:00 Back to the bar... Nina's won the last 3 of these.... small one on Garde Champetre
4:40 Quevega

premierstone

Dunquib
Captain Cee Bee
The Package
Go Native
L'ami
Voler la Vedette

AdpRo

1.30 - Get Me Out Of Here (w/o Dubguib)
2.05 - Somersby
2.40 - The Package / Character Building (undecided yet)
3.20 - Khyber Kim
4.00 - Garde Champetre (Silver Birch E/W)
4.40 - Voler la Vedette

Rooy

Here are my selections (a lot based on reading every preview going and picking who appeared to get tipped most often by reputable pundits)

13:30 DunGuib
14:05 Captain Cee Bee
14:40 The Package
15:20 Kyber Kim
16:00 L'ami
16:40 Voler La Vedette

deewhy

Supreme Novices: Dunquib (Blackstair on Paddy Power Special.)
Arkle: CBB (f/cast with Kangaroo Court!)
William Hill: Ogee and Offshore Account e/w
CH: Starluck (combination exacta Jumbo Rio and Go Native)
X-Country: Garde
Mares: Quevega (f/cast with Zarinava and no one tells me)

They could change though - think main bet will be Ogee - a real improver and will like the ground. Could be thrown in and novices have quite a good record.

mailburner

13:30 Get me out of here
14:05 riverside theatre ew
14:40 no idea...razor royal/exmoor ranger
15:20 kyber kim ew go native
16:00 garde champetre/monkerhostin e/w undecided
16:40 quevega Nap 7/4 looks good after last
years demolition job

x PyRo

13:30 - DunGuib
14:05 - Captain Cee Bee
14:40 - Razor Royale
15:20 - Go Native
16:00 - Garde Champetre
16:40 - Voler La Vedette

artanevilla

Dunguib in the first obviously. Captain Cee Bee in the Arkle if he stays up. E/W punt on The Tother One in the next. Go Native in the Champion, Punjabi and Medermit have great E/W chances. Garde Champetre should make three in a row. Voler La Vedette takes the Mares.

s-cogan

dunguib
captain ceebee
exmoor ranger
khyber kim
sizing australia
quevega

mike65

1:30 SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 110y
Get Me Out Of Here

2:05 ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE 2m
Sizing Europe

2:40 WILLIAM HILL HANDICAP CHASE 3m 110y
Ogee

3:20 CHAMPION HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m 110y
Go Native

4:00 CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE 3m 7f
Monkerhostin

4.40 No real opinion.

therokerroar

Flat Out (EW)
Captain Cee Bee and Osana (EW)
The Package and Finger On The Pulse (EW)
Go Native
Cornish Sett (EW)
Quevega

Clemon

1:30 Dunguib.
2:05 Captain Cee Bee
2:40 Casey Jones E/W
3:20 Go Native
4:00 Another Jewel E/W
4:40 Volar La Vedette

Reginald P. DuM

Dunguib, Capt Cee Bee, Go Native and Garde Cha are my 4 bets tomorrow.

Plus 10

1:30 SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 110y
Get Me Out Of Here (great performance lasy time out in a competitive handicap - think he had a little up his sleeve that day & ran on)

2:05 ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE 2m
Riverside Theatre (decent hurdle form - a bit to prove over fences but again like the way he picked up the last time)

2:40 WILLIAM HILL HANDICAP CHASE 3m 110y
No selection (one of my hopes for the week is that I woudln't back in a race just for the sake of a bet)

3:20 CHAMPION HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m 110y
Go Native (nap)

4:00 CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE 3m 7f
Sizing Australia (laying Garde - Sizing getting 24 lbs - Sizing 8 year old Garde 13)

4.40 MARES HURDLE
Zarivina (good win last time - don't like the top 2)

Shane732

Plus 10 wrote: »

4:00 CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE 3m 7f
Sizing Australia (laying Garde - Sizing getting 24 lbs - Sizing 8 year old Garde 13)

Only 2lbs better off than last time out and Garde wasn't fully extended at all.

Glynner83

Dunguib (Monster of a horse, going to be winning the Champion Hurdle next year)
Sports Line ew
Razor Royale
Kyber Kim
(have no bet yet on the CC, thinkin about monkerhastin ew)
Voler la Vedette

Diggy78

Reginald P. DuM wrote: »

Dunguib, Capt Cee Bee, Go Native and Garde Cha are my 4 bets tomorrow.

Did I type this already under a different name? . Exactly what I'm doing (have done). Cant have a bet in the last, no idea what to think of Que Vega and haven't been close to getting the winner of the William Hill since Marlborough so will leave those well alone too. Garde Champetre is my NAP of the week. Cant have him beaten by Lami. The race always just turns into a sprint at the end anyway after they've crawled around for 3 miles.

Nozebleed

looking forward to dunguib failing tomorrow!

ForeverYoung90

Is CAPPA BLEU a non runner for tomorrow in the 2.40?:(

ForeverYoung90

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Is CAPPA BLEU a non runner for tomorrow in the 2.40?:(

Ive just seen hes running in the 2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle on Friday instead.I put a fiver on him e/w in the 2.40 race tomorrrow.On the slip I wrote Tue 16th.......will the bet carry on to Fri?

mdwexford

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Ive just seen hes running in the 2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle on Friday instead.I put a fiver on him e/w in the 2.40 race tomorrrow.On the slip I wrote Tue 16th.......will the bet carry on to Fri?

No.

CSF

13:30 Dan Breen (EW)
14:05 Somersby
14:40 The Tother One (EW)
15:20 Solwhit (backed before the problems, dunno what to think now)
16:00 Garde Champetre
16:40 Pepite De Soleil (EW)

ForeverYoung90

mdwexford wrote: »

No.

I did the bet in Boylesports so il get my money back with non runner no bet ya?

ya-ba-da-ba-doo

1:30 DUNGUIB

2:05 CAPTAIN CEE BEE

2:40 THEATRICAL MOMENT

3:20 GO NATIVE

4:00 GARDE CHAMPETRE

butter13222

Duinguib
Captain Cee Bee
Bensalem
Celestial Halo e/w
Double Dizzy e/w
Easter Legend e/w

if all my first 3 are turned over it will be a hard week

Crash Bang Wall

Only backed Dunguib and Punjabi, but starting to sweat a bit now as nobody tipping Punjabi at all.

Hope Im right and ye lot arent.....in the nicest possible way of course!!!

MascotDec85

Was sent this on earlier not sure what site it is from if anyone takes note of trends:

Day 1 - Tuesday 16th March

Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends:

31 of the last 35 winners have been aged five or six. You can stick a line through a few with that stat!
All out of the last ten winners had won at least 50% of their hurdle starts
All of the last ten winners had run within the last 45 days
Nine of the last ten winners won last time out
Seven of the last ten winners were trained in Ireland


Arkle Trends

The Arkle is a huge test for inexperienced horses who are required to jump well at speed. Errors will cause horses to struggle to keep in touch and those unable to maintain a high cruising speed will become too far detached. The fastest horse both over and between the fences will come out on top.

21 of the last 23 winners finished first or second last time out
All out of the last ten winners started at an SP no bigger than 11/1
All of the last ten winners had had no more than five races over fences
Nine of the last ten winners were aged between five and seven (only one winner aged eight or over since 1960!)
Nine out of the last ten winners were rated at least 142 over hurdles


William Hill Trophy Trends

All out of the last ten winners carried no more than 10st 12lb
All out of the last ten winners were officially rated 127-143
All of the last ten winners aged 7-10
Nine of the last ten winners had won over at least three miles
Horses with previous placed Festival form have a good record in this race
Only two favourites have won this race since 1977


Champion Hurdle Trends

A two mile sprint race for the fastest hurdlers in national hunt racing. An ability to travel well at speed and jump without losing momentum is crucial.

All out of the last ten winners had previously run well at the Cheltenham Festival (at least fourth) with eight out of ten previous winners at the Festival
All of the last 10 winners had it's final prep run within 51 days (mid to late January).
Nine out of the last ten winners won at least one race that season
Nine of the last ten winners were aged six to nine


Cross Country Trends

All of the five winners have been trained in Ireland (and 15 of the last 16 placed horses!)
All five winners had previously won a cross country race
All of the five winners had won one of its last two starts
All of the five winners had won over at least three miles
Horses aged younger than eight have a very poor record in all cross country races at Cheltenham

It usually pays to avoid horses who are having their first run in cross country races - course experience is the key!


David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle

Because this race has only been run twice its a little early to be focusing too closely on trends for this race but its worth noting that both winners so far were:

Last time out winners
Held up for a late run - this may be because the ground for the last race on the first day is usually at its worst

MascotDec85

13:30


Right I've just applied this The first stat is interesting as it rules out the 7 year old odds on favourite in Dunguib

Other than that it leaves:

Dan Breen 20/1 available
Flat Out 20/1
Oscar Whisky 10/1
Blackstairmountain Ruby at 10/1

I see a few guys have went for Puyol but according to the site I use for info I aint running. 18 run

Deal with that whichever way you want

I'm working my way through Day 1 and will post as I go

MascotDec85

14:05

Again Captain Cee Bee, the Fav, ridden by McCoy is ruled out due to age.

Applying the above trends leaves us with only 3 horses:

Riverside Theatre ridden by Barry Geraghty at 8/1
Somersby ridden by Choc Thornton at 4/1 and
Sports Line ridden by Ruby at 8/1


The No winner higher than 11/1 SP trend: There was nothing around the 11/1 mark that hadn't been ruled out already. The nearest was 25/1 I think so unless there's huge money for it this trend appears safe enough :thumbup:

MascotDec85

14:40

This one is a bit tougher!!!

The weight thing ruled out over half the field including my fancy Character Building by 1 measly lb :eek:

Bensalem, the Fav is ruled out as it's not won over 3miles. Joining in this stat is Kicks For Free, New Alco, Bible Lord, Officier de Reserve & Offshore Account.

Theatrical Moment (McCoy) squeezes in having won ONE 3m trip.

That leaves us with:

Nenuphar Collonges at 20/1
Chief Dan George at 25/1
Theatrical Moment McCoy at 10/1
The Package Timmy Murphy at 11/2 and
Ogee at 14/1

The lower 3 of these have NO Festival Form. Chief Dan George has poor form. Nenuphar Collonges has a 1st in 2008 and a 3rd in 2009

MascotDec85

15:20

Now, this is interesting

Previous Cheltenham form rules out: Jumbo Rio, Khyber Kim, Raise Your Heart, Solwhit & Won In The Dark.

All of the last 10 winners had it's final prep run within 51 days Starluck is ruled out as it's final race was 80 days ago. BUT this trend also discounts Go Native 80 days & Medermit 52 days :redneck:

Zaynar, only being 5 is ruled out due to age. So, this leaves:

Binocular McCoy at 7/1
Celestial Halo Ruby at 10/1
Punjabi Geraghty at 15/2

MascotDec85

4:00

Taking out the Horses not trained in Ireland didn't leave many.
1 winner in one of the last 2 starts left Garde Champetre & Another Jewel

That's the only 2, last year's winner Garde Champetre ridden by Nina at 9/4 looks a possible favourite banker and,

Another Jewel at 16/1



And that completes Day 1. No point in looking at the last race as there are no real trends. Best of luck, I hope that wee exercise is worth it

MascotDec85

The trends were posted on another forum I use. I sifted through the horses this morning and that's the results

An interesting bet would be a €1 win accumulator on the lowest priced horse in each race = 9294/1

friendface

13:30 Get me out of here (Win @ 9/2) Vino Griego (EW @ 66/1)
14:05 Sizing Europe (Win @ 5/1) I'm Delilah (EW @ 40/1)
14:40 The Package (Win @ 11/2) Casey Jones (EW @ 16/1)
15:20 Zaynar E/W @ 9/1 (Bet of the day for me)

Seriously though, get on Zaynar!!

Good luck everyone and enjoy the week

TheMilkyPirate

Win treble

Dunguib
Captain cee bee
Garde champetre

E/W Accum

Oscar whiskey
Somersby
Nenuphar collonges
Celestial halo
Another jewel

Singles

Jumbo rio few euro e/w incase he runs into a place at big odds!
And as the day goes on i'll probably have a few more bets here and there.

Good luck to everyone, Can't wait now!

The jock

Alot of the stats are against Dunguib but he is a special horse and it should win from Oscar Whiskey. I like General Miller e.w at a price.

The stats are against Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe because of their age. Sports Line and Riverside Theatre are the ones my money would be going on. All he stats point to Sports Line. Woolcombe Folly could be an outsider with a chance.

The William Hill Chase is wide open as it is every year. The killer stat here is that very few horses carrying over 10-12lbs have ever won this race.This rules out the top 10 horses. All the stats point to Theatre Moment and The Package. I think the Package is a quirky horse and is one I would lay along with Bensalem who hasnt won over 3mile. Ogee and Offshore Account are others that I like.

The Champion Hurdle is the most wide open in years. Looking at the form, Punjabi has the beating of Celestial Halo and Binocular. Celestial Halo and Punjabi should reverse placings with Khyber Kim and Merdermit on recent runs which give the 1,2 from last year a great chance again. They may get caught out for speed though to some of the new contenders in Go Native and Starluck who only were separated by a short head last time out. Go Native beat Solwit by 6 lengths in the fighting fifth hurdle but winners of last years Supreme Novices hurdle have a terrible record in this. I think Punjabi over Celestial Halo again with Starluck and Go Native the big dangers.If 5 year olds hadnt a bad record in this I would be all for Starluck though.

The cross country chase will be won by either Garde Champatre, Lami or Sizing Australia. Garde Champatre has the beaten of both but has to give Lami 4lbs more and Sizing 2lbs more. I think L'ami will be ridden more patiently than making the running this year and will win.

The mares race will be won by Voler La Vedette! It beat Go Native by 13 lengths earlier in the year, I dont care how much Go Native needed the run he was still very much put in its place. This horse should be running in the Champion Hurdle and will next year with a mares allowance. Quevega had a interrupted preparation and hasn't run for 10 months. Aura about you who was 3rd in this race last year is a better horse this year from what I heard so she might be one to grab a place at a nice price.

thewools

My bets so far this morning: :rolleyes:

TREBLE: Dunguib / Voler la Vedette / Garde Champetre

I really believe Dubguib is the one to beat but with Paddy Powers special I'm also having a little wager on both of of the following:

E/W: Get me out of Here (PP special)
E/W: Blackstairmountain (PP special) - Great prospect and fancy Ruby having this one right up there

Will wait until later for others but Khyber Kim in the Champion Hurdle is looking tempting

Vanbis

I've gone for a treble today as well just to make the day interesting, its Cheltenham after all.

1:30 - Oscar Whisky @ 9/1

2:05 - Somersby @ 4/1

3:20 - Go Native @ 4/1

Knobs

Dunguib is buying money at evens, English layers will be stung. Really cant see anything touching him.

Bensalem looks a good bet at 11/8 PP to get a place, Jumping is suspect too but has a nice turn of foot. Should have beatin Diamond Harry LTO only for poor jumping


Would like to see Go Native win CH but its tough to call, alot of horse's in with chances going to be an interesting race. Im backing Go Native to place at 5/6, Just hoping he gets the run of the race

Arkle is a tough one to call, CCB looked all over Sizing europe when falling but i do not think Sizing Europe was fully wound up that day. Really think he will give good account of himself today and at 6/5 to place ill be having a punt

Garde Champetre might win race but at 1/3 to place (4 places) Ill be lumping the dunguib money on (providing he does the business) to get a small return


Best of luck to all punting today;)