Dunguib - Even Money?

Shane732

Just a quick question - Do you think Dunguib will hit evens with the bookies over the next few days?

I was firmly of the opinion that Dunguib would go the other way, I thought punters would really get stuck in but the bookies seem to be taking him on...

I know he's hit even money on betfair.

What do you guys think?

cson

He'll drift on the day imo. They'll take him on in the ring I imagine, might hit 11/10 or 6/5. Likely SP at 10/11 or 5/6.

slazz

i think he would drift slightly odds against but when the big money comes in for him they'll cut him back in, i can see him going off at evens, but who knows maybe mc manus will come in big on [gmoh] then dunguib price could go to 7/4 or 2/1

mdwexford

slazz wrote: »

i think he would drift slightly odds against but when the big money comes in for him they'll cut him back in, i can see him going off at evens, but who knows maybe mc manus will come in big on [gmoh] then dunguib price could go to 7/4 or 2/1

Sorry but this is tripe.

Colonel Sanders

I think its very possible he'll touch odds against in the run up, maybe even on course. We've a novice hurdler here who all of Ireland seems to think is a good thing and all of England seems to want to lay. Most preview night write ups seem to suggest he's the one of the 4 really short priced favs the bookies want to be against. And this is probably a reasonable view as he has potential above form in the book unlike Kauto, MM & Big Bucks.

I've said all along I'll back him at odds against, however I think sheer weight of cash will shorten his SP to slight odds on, 10/11 or 5/6. Maybe 4/5 at the shortest as some of the SPs last year were rank compared to the types of prices that were available on Betfair (Cousin Vinny, Mikael D & Cooldine all started 9/4-ish despite drifting back towards 3/1 on Betfair at the off)

mdwexford

I think he'll go off 10/11, Evens or 11/10.

Weight of all the Irish money vs the layers who will want to get an odds on novice hurdler with jumping issues, should be interesting.

cson

The main reason I can see him going off odds against is that the bookmakers at Cheltenham will attempt to lay him - possibly at evens and maybe drifting. I've read from a few that this is going to be their strategy. The main concern I have personally about Dunguib is that he hasn't been asked a question in his hurdling career. There hasn't been anyone to have Brian O'Connell move on him yet. No one has got him off the bridle. I'm interested to see how he'd react, he may find nothing, you never know. I'd think there'd be at least one good enough Tuesday afternoon to ask him to exert himself a bit though. Of course there may never be anything to get him off the bridle and what I've just said may look very silly around 1.35pm on Tuesday.

Diggy78

cson wrote: »

The main reason I can see him going off odds against is that the bookmakers at Cheltenham will attempt to lay him - possibly at evens and maybe drifting. I've read from a few that this is going to be their strategy. The main concern I have personally about Dunguib is that he hasn't been asked a question in his hurdling career. There hasn't been anyone to have Brian O'Connell move on him yet. No one has got him off the bridle. I'm interested to see how he'd react, he may find nothing, you never know. I'd think there'd be at least one good enough Tuesday afternoon to ask him to exert himself a bit though. Of course there may never be anything to get him off the bridle and what I've just said may look very silly around 1.35pm on Tuesday.

Was pushed out in the bumper last year and readily picked up I thought. Fair enough he hit the front on the bridle but when shoved out he certainly opened a gap sharpish. I wont be opposing anyway, and my pockets will be hoping you look silly,

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

I think he'll go off 10/11, Evens or 11/10.

Weight of all the Irish money vs the layers who will want to get an odds on novice hurdler with jumping issues, should be interesting.

I think there'll be a scandalous amount of cash matched on this race on Betfair with 90%+ on the jolly

Really seems to be the race where everyone seems to think he's a back or a lay, no one seems to say no bet. I'm a backer at odds against

I personally think the horse is an absolute monster. The way he pulled O'Connell's arms out all the way round in the bumper last year but still managed to put the race to bed in a matter of strides was unreal. One of the reasons I think he hasn't jumped too well so far is that other mere mortal horses in his races not just haven't gone fast enough for him, but can't go fast enough for him

An end to end gallop in the supreme will see suit him down to ground and I can see him swinging off the bridle 2 out before bounding up the hill to a huge roar

cson

Yeah I've reckoned he'll jump better with the quicker pace in the Supreme.

Aidric

On course bookies will lay evens but it won't last for long. I'll definately be taking a bit of that if betfair offer it up.

RichieLawlor

I don't think there is a horse in the line up to get him at it. The last day BRian O Connells job was to get him round without giving him a hard race, Dunguib didn't even know he was in a race, he kicked a few over and still won hard on the steel. His best jump was the last without doubt when he increased the pace.

I've cone around over the last week or so of watching his and others races that I'm gonna steam into him at evens or above and get the week off to a flyer

brandon_flowers

Have being watching it closely on the exchanges the last few days. 21/20 yesterday and saturday 20/21 this morning at best and evens to be had nowhere. I think he will go off around 5/6, a lot of money will come early in the day in the ring (where the price is really decided) as it is the first race. Of course the English will lay him but remember the Irish bookies have a huge amount of cash taken already and will be trying to spread it tomorrow morning as well.

Whyno

slazz wrote: »

i think he would drift slightly odds against but when the big money comes in for him they'll cut him back in, i can see him going off at evens, but who knows maybe mc manus will come in big on [gmoh] then dunguib price could go to 7/4 or 2/1

Will you give me these prices.....:rolleyes:

With the way everything is working out Dunguib will be offered up at evens this evening and tomorrow morning. This will be taken and will go off best priced 4/5 - 8/11. Winner alright imo

sting60

I really hope he wins by 10l hard held but i think tactics by other connections are going to be very prevalent.they are going to make an issue of his jumping and the young jockey will have to be wide awake to this .I hope we don't get the [unlucky in running] headlines as this could end the jockeys career before it starts.I personally do not think he should be odds on as i think his jumping is average,he may be caught for a turn of foot as i always thought he is a two and a half mile horse.I hope I'm so wrong,come on Dunguib.

Whyno

sting60 wrote: »

I really hope he wins by 10l hard held but i think tactics by other connections are going to be very prevalent.they are going to make an issue of his jumping and the young jockey will have to be wide awake to this .I hope we don't get the [unlucky in running] headlines as this could end the jockeys career before it starts.I personally do not think he should be odds on as i think his jumping is average,he may be caught for a turn of foot as i always thought he is a two and a half mile horse.I hope I'm so wrong,come on Dunguib.

As long as he doesnt do a roger loughran on it he should be safe enough.
Imo Dunguib would be a group horse over staying distances on the flat as is rite of passage (whom dermot weld has stated may attempt an assault on the Melbourne Cup and we all know what Dunguib done to ROP in the CB last season) and i dont see him anything other than a 2mile champion in the making over hurdles. I think he'd defo stay further but hopefully he wont ever need to go any further.

Whyno

Also i`d reckon they will want to win the race by as far as possible due to the 1k per length he wins by and all money going to spinal research.

Itsdacraic

Whyno wrote: »

Also i`d reckon they will want to win the race by as far as possible due to the 1k per length he wins by and all money going to spinal research.

This should not be factored into the thinking of the connections, trainer or jockey at any stage.

Whyno

Itsdacraic wrote: »

This should not be factored into the thinking of the connections, trainer or jockey at any stage.

LOL...A win is all that matters

sting60

Whyno wrote: »

As long as he doesnt do a roger loughran on it he should be safe enough.
Imo Dunguib would be a group horse over staying distances on the flat as is rite of passage (whom dermot weld has stated may attempt an assault on the Melbourne Cup and we all know what Dunguib done to ROP in the CB last season) and i dont see him anything other than a 2mile champion in the making over hurdles. I think he'd defo stay further but hopefully he wont ever need to go any further.

Bumper winners/supreme novice winners have a poor record in the champion hurdle.the reason is very simple the champion winners were bought off the flat with speed for 1.2 miles.Bumper/supreme winners are more often than not nh bred.Dunguib is by Presenting a prolific thrower of top nh stock,by Mtoto who stayed on the flat.The dam Erdemine Berry won a hurdle race and sister of point to point winner.Looking at his breeding he is destined for further over hurdles or 2 mile chasing.Presenting stock tend to get better with age and in the main great jumpers,War Of Attrition and Denman are just two of his stock.

Whyno

EVENS DUNGUIB IN PADDY POWERS RIGHT NOW FOLKS(ITS POWER PLAY SO WONT BE UP ALL DAY) LUMP ON:D:D:D:D:D

Shane732

Is there any word on how he travelled over? Is he eating up?

Whyno

Shane732 wrote: »

Is there any word on how he travelled over? Is he eating up?

Dunguib has enjoyed the perfect preparation for Tuesday's Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Trainer Philip Fenton is happy that everything has gone according to plan for the seven-year-old, who arrives at Prestbury Park unbeaten over hurdles. He has polarised opinion in the run-up to the meeting, with some people describing him as a banker and others convinced his novicey jumping could prove a stumbling block.

However, Fenton is unconcerned by such talk and said: "Everything has gone just fine with him. We've kept him away from the track on purpose because he is a bit excitable, we've had him stabled at Jim Wilson's."

The handler added: "He did his final half-speed on Thursday and of course it is very exciting to be heading to the first race of the meeting with the hot favourite. We've not had the slightest problem with him, we wouldn't have declared him otherwise, no setbacks or anything."

Dunguib will face 17 rivals in the Festival opener, with the most notable withdrawals at the declaration stage being Bellvano, Peddlers Cross and Rite Of Passage, but all three have other options at the meeting.

With Dunguib such a short price at the head of affairs, there are some fancy prices around for some highly-regarded youngsters, with Nicky Henderson's unbeaten Oscar Whisky falling into that bracket.

Henderson said: "He has a lot of ability but probably lacks experience. He is a bonny sort who goes about his business really professionally. I think he has a very realistic chance. If there is any chink in Dunguib then it is an open race and I remember a 1-14 favourite (Zaynar) who got beaten recently, so it can happen!"

Taken from atr site

UrbanSea

Not a hope would I touch an odds on horse in the most competitive novice hurdle around in a huge field.
People dont seem to think either about horses who have bad form because of the bad ground we've had. Some may relish better ground tomorrow and could be an upset from any numnber of outsiders who are sure to run better than their prices suggest.

Derryleigh

Is there another horse in the race which we could double up with or do some class of a forecast with Dunguib to up the odds a bit. Evens is a bit too short for this poor oul fella with no idea of form and with only a few quid to spare!

brandon_flowers

Derryleigh wrote: »

Is there another horse in the race which we could double up with or do some class of a forecast with Dunguib to up the odds a bit. Evens is a bit too short for this poor oul fella with no idea of form and with only a few quid to spare!

First mistake of betting. GREED.

Back Dunguib in a double if you want but I would only be putting him in a bouble or accum as a second option. Whats wrong with him winning at even money or shorter? Its better than him winning and the second leg of your double falling 2 out when cruising.

Shane732

brandon_flowers wrote: »

First mistake of betting. GREED.

Back Dunguib in a double if you want but I would only be putting him in a bouble or accum as a second option. Whats wrong with him winning at even money or shorter? Its better than him winning and the second leg of your double falling 2 out when cruising.

Agreed

Shane732

greetings wrote: »

Not a hope would I touch an odds on horse in the most competitive novice hurdle around in a huge field.
People dont seem to think either about horses who have bad form because of the bad ground we've had. Some may relish better ground tomorrow and could be an upset from any numnber of outsiders who are sure to run better than their prices suggest.

I'd argue that the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle is a much more competitive hurdle than the Supreme. The standard of the race may be lower but it's competitive.

mdwexford

The Supreme Novices would look competitive if Dunguib wasnt around also.

I still think it is competitive fwiw.

AdpRo

No more evens in Powers shops, I jsut went in a couple of minutes ago and they said that the special ended at 3.30! They still have the Master Minded / Big Bucks double at 9/4 though.

UrbanSea

Shane732 wrote: »

I'd argue that the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle is a much more competitive hurdle than the Supreme. The standard of the race may be lower but it's competitive.

Was just about to say what mdwexford said,i think behind dunguib it looks very competitive. And I think a few of them will finish ahead of him tomorrow.

Nulty

My first Cheltenham and JESUS I'm getting excited!

Laddies are EVEN now

UrbanSea

This would worry me if I was a dunguib backer.
With so many people saying this is the bet of the festival and 'bombproof' as I heard,why isn't it 1/3? MM,Big Bucks,or Kauto any day before backing this.

Aidric

Just watching the ATR preview at the moment. Ladbrokes are going evens on Dunguib first thing tomorrow morning, don't know how long it will be around. Hills are gone evens right now.

Johner

greetings wrote: »

This would worry me if I was a dunguib backer.
With so many people saying this is the bet of the festival and 'bombproof' as I heard,why isn't it 1/3? MM,Big Bucks,or Kauto any day before backing this.

Because it's Cheltenham.

UrbanSea

Johner wrote: »

Because it's Cheltenham.

That was an example. But if this is the most 'solid' bet of the meeting then why are those 3 shorter than it and holding their own in the market?
But thanks for the insight.

Shane732

greetings wrote: »

That was an example. But if this is the most 'solid' bet of the meeting then why are those 3 shorter than it and holding their own in the market?
But thanks for the insight.

It's a novice hurdle with a big field. I don't think he's the most solid bet of the festival, I think Big Bucks is.

mountai

Anyone here remember --- ARRARUN????

UrbanSea

Shane732 wrote: »

It's a novice hurdle with a big field. I don't think he's the most solid bet of the festival, I think Big Bucks is.

This is the point I have been making for the last few weeks.

mdwexford

People get caught up in hype, he was obviously the worst of the 4 odds on shots regardless of who wins or loses. The other 3 have all been there and done it and are showing no signs of decline. He is total style over substance at the moment, he will have to come off the bridle to win tomorrow. He may well do so and win by 10 lengths but 4/6 a few weeks ago was shocking value.

At 6/4 i would be interested, dont think he'll go that big though.

UrbanSea

mdwexford wrote: »

People get caught up in hype, he was obviously the worst of the 4 odds on shots regardless of who wins or loses. The other 3 have all been there and done it and are showing no signs of decline. He is total style over substance at the moment, he will have to come off the bridle to win tomorrow. He may well do so and win by 10 lengths but 4/6 a few weeks ago was shocking value.

At 6/4 i would be interested, dont think he'll go that big though.

Exactly. I don't think I'd lay him at 6/4,but still wouldn't be a backer.

Shane732

mdwexford wrote: »

People get caught up in hype, he was obviously the worst of the 4 odds on shots regardless of who wins or loses. The other 3 have all been there and done it and are showing no signs of decline. He is total style over substance at the moment, he will have to come off the bridle to win tomorrow. He may well do so and win by 10 lengths but 4/6 a few weeks ago was shocking value.

At 6/4 i would be interested, dont think he'll go that big though.

He has been to Cheltenham before and has done it. I certainly agree with you that people are getting caught up in the hype.

I agree that 4/6 was awful value but I think anything around evens is fair enough.

I think 5/4 will be the max he'll hit at this stage but then I did think he'd go the other way initially.

Here's hoping he'll do the business!

mdwexford

Big difference jumping hurdles compared to a bumper.
He is unproven over hurdles in a big field and on fast ground.
I have no doubt he will find under pressure but if he hits one and has to be pushed along going to the next who knows what will happen.

He may well relish it, we shall see.
Personally id like to see a hurdling superstar who can destroy all opposition, hasnt been one in a while.

Colonel Sanders

Evens with Ladbrokes, Hills & Sportingbet

Fortunes on both sides of the betfair market at around the even money mark

And FWIW since Istabraq champion hurdle winners have been about 50/50 ex flat horses/ex bumper horses

aidan24326

I think he'll win alright, looking through the field it's hard to see what would beat him. But is he value at the odds? Not really. So I'm dubious as to whether I'll back him. This is going to be a totally different test to what he's faced in recent races. Big field, different ground, and will he find enough if it turns into a scrap? We'll find out tomorrow whether he's the real deal or not. I think he probably is, but I certainly wouldn't touch him at anything shorter than evens.

mdwexford

People are really underestimating Get Me Out Of Here and Menorah who have both already run to an RPR good enough to win most Supreme Novices of the past 10 years, they are just unlucky there seems to be a beast who might be special around this year. But make no mistake about it, they will test him, if he beats those 2 hard held by 10 lengths he is ridiculously good.

butter13222

im certain he will win it but like you said if he wins this by more than 7 or 8 lenghts hard held he is a freak of a horse , i think menorah is the biggest danger

argosy2006

evens on bf, really is a great price for people with big money to back it, i see it winning easily, 7 or more lengths !

UrbanSea

Ive been trying to give some of my friends evens that he will win it if they gave me evens he loses and they wouldnt take it,really have one of my friends who backed him ****tin himself now puttin doubt in his mind:)

cullenswood

I think I'll be lumping into Dunguib and do Menorah each way also at PP to take advantage of the money back offer. Hopefully they will come in 1 - 2

Colonel Sanders

Get Me Out Of Here could be a nice each way to nothing, especially using the powers offer. I think he'll need to jump better than at Newbury though. Menorah will like a faster race but I don't think he's good enough. Oscar Whiskey & Blackstairmountain could be anything really. They don't have the form in the book yet but lightly raced horses have a good record in this