Cheltenham Analysis- How to make money

Amigomenor

All, starting up this thread to encourage you all to make money as this is a period of time when value in the horse markets exists.
With 1/4 the odds all races, money back specials and all guaranteed prices this is a week to make some money.
How this is achieved however involves some work in advance, all of which I have already completed on your behalf.

Tuesday Preview.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
this looks like a race that Dunguib only has to turn up for to win. This could well be right and I would not lay the horse to lose. What I would do instead is avail of Paddy Powers generous concession and back 2 horses aside from Dunguib knowing that if Dunguib wins the money is refunded on the losers. The max concession is €300 and I appreciate that most of you may struggle to allocate such funds to horses so instead I shall give you my stake plan and you can allocate accordingly.
I would go for 200 win on Get Me Out of Here; this horse is unbeaten and won a valuable handicap last time out. He is improving and I get the feeling he only ever does enough in his races. Along with this I would have 25ew on [URL="javascript:showProfile('horse','431610')"]Peddlers Cross (IRE)[/URL]. He is a bit unexposed and I know that the trainer thinks a lot of him, the stable is not in great form but he is worth a small ew bet at the prices (especially as we have the concession saver in the back pocket!)
Summary: Get Me Out of here to win @ 5/1, EW peddlers cross @16/1. Take the prices as they are guaranteed.

Arkle Challenge Trophy

Nothing jumps off the page as a betting opportunity here so I have to use my initiative to find us a way of increasing our winnings from the first race. Again the favorite Captain cee bee looks the one to be on, however I am not convinced he will jump round especially given the race will be run at a breakneck speed as always. The one I shall go for here is Osana, the trainer is an expert at this meeting and I still remember Ventana Canyon leaving his prior years form well behind when taking this contest some years back. This horse Osana had been talked about for the Champion Hurdle some years back and is worth 50ew at 14/1 with Powers. I do not think Riverside Theatre is any use and expect his short price is down to the trainer and not the horses performances to date.


William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
I love these big handicaps as you will more than likely get paid on 5th. Ground conditions should be fast and this would put me off the ante post Fav the package. How is Finger on the Pulse 20/1 I ask? A former winner at Cheltenham, a great racing weight and a trainer who know the time of day/ He mush have had training problems but they would not be sending him over for the fresh air. My recommendation is 50ew on him. In addition to this Lacdoudal at 50/1 is worth 25ew off a low weight on a course he loves.


Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge

The marquee is on standby at Noel Meades and I hear they think he is already past the post. Let believe them and have 100 win at 7/2. Its not a great race in terms of quality but Go Native could be a star.All the remaining value is gone from the race, I would have tipped Binocolur at 10/1 but at 7/1 the value is gone and ew betting is not attractive here.
Let’s enjoy the race and Go Native power away from them under the brilliant Paul Carberry who I still remember giving Unguided Missile a peach of a ride to win over 10 years back.


Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)

This race is for has beans of horses and although the quality is lacking it’s normally a good race for favorites. I am not a great man to back favorites so its not really my type of race. As a suggestion I say have 25ew on Lacdoudal if he runs here instead of in the earlier race otherwise Cornish Sett at 33/1 (25ew), out of form and could be tailed off after a furlong but he did win a welsh national some years back and the jockey on board is quite useful.

David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

All the talk here is of the favourite Quevega. however she is drifting in the market, she was way too short all year and this is just the bookies trying to get your cash in large multiple bets involving all the short priced favorites at the meeting. I would not back this Quevega at 7/4 or not even at 5/2. The race is poor and these mares are unpredictable. For that reason I am going to suggest again a small bet on Queen Poline at 33/1 with Powers. She has winning form in a good contest recently and the trainer knows how to get them right for this big day. Again €25 ew is my recommendation.

Finally a summary
Always take a price on singles. The market will contract as this appears to happen on all the big racing days. The bookies know that by shorting horses on course they reduce their potential liabilities in the shops and the weight of money off course far outweighs that on courses.
Also have a €1 EW Lucky 31 (€62) on the 5 races leaving aside Go Native, this will be Queen Poline, Lacoudal, Finger on the Pulse , Osana and Get me out of Here.

I shall review the above on Tuesday and amend where necessary due to non runners etc however I do not think I shall deviate from the above much. In the meantime start betting as the prices I mention are guranteed and any non runners will be refunded so you can be certain not to lose out anything by doing this.

I wish us all luck with the recession how it is but the bookies want your money and I don’t want you to give it to them.

This analysis is years of experience and will be proved correct of that I am certain.
Let’s make some money! Shall post for Wednesday after Tuesday’s racing!!

therokerroar

Much appreciated mate, I shall have a few pound on your selections and see how we go.

Best of luck.

eldrickwoods

That time of year again... especially looking forward to this year's festival with all the bad weather in the past few months. I'm actually heading over the red eye flight on friday.

cheers for the tips. always good to get a second opinion. I will of course bet betting on PP's unbelieveable dunguib moneyback special - 50% chance of a refund. I like Get Me Out Of Here but I think Menorah is the beast to be on at 10/1. Forget the defeat in his last race. He battered the final fence that day. PJ Hobbs will have him primed for this one and Richard Johnson speaks v highly of this horse's chances.

p.s. - My festival NAP has to be Rite of Passage in the Novice's Hurdle... but we'll chat about that after Tuesday. For now it's all about the opening day.

Chriskavo

eldrickwoods wrote: »

That time of year again... especially looking forward to this year's festival with all the bad weather in the past few months. I'm actually heading over the red eye flight on friday.

cheers for the tips. always good to get a second opinion. I will of course bet betting on PP's unbelieveable dunguib moneyback special - 50% chance of a refund. I like Get Me Out Of Here but I think Menorah is the beast to be on at 10/1. Forget the defeat in his last race. He battered the final fence that day. PJ Hobbs will have him primed for this one and Richard Johnson speaks v highly of this horse's chances.

p.s. - My festival NAP has to be Rite of Passage in the Novice's Hurdle... but we'll chat about that after Tuesday. For now it's all about the opening day.

PJ Hobbs however thinks Dunguib is a ' machine' and that it will take a fall for him to be beaten.

winslow

Amigomenor wrote: »

What I would do instead is avail of Paddy Powers generous concession and back 2 horses aside from Dunguib knowing that if Dunguib wins the money is refunded on the losers. The max concession is €300 and I appreciate that most of you may struggle to allocate such funds to horses so instead I shall give you my stake plan and you can allocate accordingly.
I would go for 200 win on Get Me Out of Here; this horse is unbeaten and won a valuable handicap last time out. He is improving and I get the feeling he only ever does enough in his races. Along with this I would have 25ew on Peddlers Cross (IRE). He is a bit unexposed and I know that the trainer thinks a lot of him, the stable is not in great form but he is worth a small ew bet at the prices (especially as we have the concession saver in the back pocket!)
Summary: Get Me Out of here to win @ 5/1, EW peddlers cross @16/1. Take the prices as they are guaranteed.

Let’s make some money! Shall post for Wednesday after Tuesday’s racing!!

Thank you for your insight, we could all use a little extra info for these races.

One thing though, if you wager 200 on Get Me Out of Here, and 25ew on Peddlers Cross, there is still the unthinkable possibility of another horse winning. In that case, PP would not refund your stake and you are out 250.

I think I would be a little more conservative myself, someone else mentioned earlier that he was going to wager on all the horses to have the winnings at about 416 for a 300 outlay. If anyone but Dunguib wins, he takes home 116. Not a lot, but a profit nonetheless.

I wouldn't want to sway you or anyone else from making your choice, but I would still be worried about another horse staging a surprise.

steerforth80

all very good assuming Dunguib gets home.. so many horses in a novice race is not value money back or not..im thinking peddlers cross will go in the neptune and get me out of here is a handicapper at best... i'd hate for people to be fooled into thinking paddypowers are doing them a favour.. there is better value to be had over the week and a sizeable bet on the first day is a joke..just think cousin vinny last year.

eldrickwoods

steerforth80 wrote: »

all very good assuming Dunguib gets home.. so many horses in a novice race is not value money back or not..im thinking peddlers cross will go in the neptune and get me out of here is a handicapper at best... i'd hate for people to be fooled into thinking paddypowers are doing them a favour.. there is better value to be had over the week and a sizeable bet on the first day is a joke..just think cousin vinny last year.

going to have to disagree with you on this one. There will be no better value available over the week. There has never been a precedent on this - where a bookmaker has made an odds-on fav the centre of a moneyback special on any race - never mind such a big race. Yes, there are a lot of runners but they also refund on the win part of each-way singles so it really is a good offer. Cousin Vinny was 5/2 last year and that was generous. Dunguib is 4/5.

I'm not saying to bet your bollox on it bt it's definitely worth a punt.

Verance

Lots of talk here about PP's offer but betfred are refunding all losing bets up to €100 on the Supreme Novices. I'll be having a hundred on Dunguib myself.

eldrickwoods

Verance wrote: »

Lots of talk here about PP's offer but betfred are refunding all losing bets up to €100 on the Supreme Novices. I'll be having a hundred on Dunguib myself.

nice one. what's their offer? - refund in the event of what happening?

Verance

eldrickwoods wrote: »

refund in the event of what happening?

You losing! You have to make a new deposit to your account though, it doesn't work if the money's already in there.

Ah apologies, they only refund it as a free bet, forgot to mention But still worth it, i think.

cson

Osana, Finger Onthe Pulse and Cornish Sett are place lays imo.

Amigomenor

Now that the declarations are in the following are the suggestions

1.30 Get me out of here (win@200 at 5/1) , no other bet
2.05 Osana 50ew 14/1
2.40 Joe Lively 25ew 33/1 (original intended not running)
3.20 Go Native 100 win @7/2 will start 5/2 or lower
4.0c Lacoudal 25/1, Cornish Set 33/1 25ew both
4.40 No bet advised.

Appreciate all the comments to date re the original analysis, yes the bet on Get me out of here is large but this is a great offer from PP and does not happen very often so I will take a chance with the insurance in play re the fav.

Would also do a Lucky 31 on the first 5 named horses in the above 5 races in case they all go in.
Good luck all and will update tomorrow.

steerforth80

Go native is currently 9/2 with ladbrokes.. gud luck tmrw..
think character building and theatrical moment will go well tmrw off nice weights in the william hill trophy.. 10/1 and 12/1..

abouttobebanned

Just one bit of advice.

You know when it's Christmas time....and we use that as an excuse to eat and drink loads? Cheltenham is our Christmas...don't go mad on the betting just cause it's cheltenham. You DONT have to bet on every race.

therokerroar

Cheers mate, have backed your selections. Looking forward to tomorrow, best of luck.

abrr1000

Amigomenor wrote: »

All, starting up this thread to encourage you all to make money as this is a period of time when value in the horse markets exists.
With 1/4 the odds all races, money back specials and all guaranteed prices this is a week to make some money.
How this is achieved however involves some work in advance, all of which I have already completed on your behalf.

Tuesday Preview.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
this looks like a race that Dunguib only has to turn up for to win. This could well be right and I would not lay the horse to lose. What I would do instead is avail of Paddy Powers generous concession and back 2 horses aside from Dunguib knowing that if Dunguib wins the money is refunded on the losers. The max concession is €300 and I appreciate that most of you may struggle to allocate such funds to horses so instead I shall give you my stake plan and you can allocate accordingly.
I would go for 200 win on Get Me Out of Here; this horse is unbeaten and won a valuable handicap last time out. He is improving and I get the feeling he only ever does enough in his races. Along with this I would have 25ew on [URL="javascript:showProfile('horse','431610')"]Peddlers Cross (IRE)[/URL]. He is a bit unexposed and I know that the trainer thinks a lot of him, the stable is not in great form but he is worth a small ew bet at the prices (especially as we have the concession saver in the back pocket!)
Summary: Get Me Out of here to win @ 5/1, EW peddlers cross @16/1. Take the prices as they are guaranteed.

Arkle Challenge Trophy

Nothing jumps off the page as a betting opportunity here so I have to use my initiative to find us a way of increasing our winnings from the first race. Again the favorite Captain cee bee looks the one to be on, however I am not convinced he will jump round especially given the race will be run at a breakneck speed as always. The one I shall go for here is Osana, the trainer is an expert at this meeting and I still remember Ventana Canyon leaving his prior years form well behind when taking this contest some years back. This horse Osana had been talked about for the Champion Hurdle some years back and is worth 50ew at 14/1 with Powers. I do not think Riverside Theatre is any use and expect his short price is down to the trainer and not the horses performances to date.


William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
I love these big handicaps as you will more than likely get paid on 5th. Ground conditions should be fast and this would put me off the ante post Fav the package. How is Finger on the Pulse 20/1 I ask? A former winner at Cheltenham, a great racing weight and a trainer who know the time of day/ He mush have had training problems but they would not be sending him over for the fresh air. My recommendation is 50ew on him. In addition to this Lacdoudal at 50/1 is worth 25ew off a low weight on a course he loves.


Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge

The marquee is on standby at Noel Meades and I hear they think he is already past the post. Let believe them and have 100 win at 7/2. Its not a great race in terms of quality but Go Native could be a star.All the remaining value is gone from the race, I would have tipped Binocolur at 10/1 but at 7/1 the value is gone and ew betting is not attractive here.
Let’s enjoy the race and Go Native power away from them under the brilliant Paul Carberry who I still remember giving Unguided Missile a peach of a ride to win over 10 years back.


Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)

This race is for has beans of horses and although the quality is lacking it’s normally a good race for favorites. I am not a great man to back favorites so its not really my type of race. As a suggestion I say have 25ew on Lacdoudal if he runs here instead of in the earlier race otherwise Cornish Sett at 33/1 (25ew), out of form and could be tailed off after a furlong but he did win a welsh national some years back and the jockey on board is quite useful.

David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

All the talk here is of the favourite Quevega. however she is drifting in the market, she was way too short all year and this is just the bookies trying to get your cash in large multiple bets involving all the short priced favorites at the meeting. I would not back this Quevega at 7/4 or not even at 5/2. The race is poor and these mares are unpredictable. For that reason I am going to suggest again a small bet on Queen Poline at 33/1 with Powers. She has winning form in a good contest recently and the trainer knows how to get them right for this big day. Again €25 ew is my recommendation.

Finally a summary
Always take a price on singles. The market will contract as this appears to happen on all the big racing days. The bookies know that by shorting horses on course they reduce their potential liabilities in the shops and the weight of money off course far outweighs that on courses.
Also have a €1 EW Lucky 31 (€62) on the 5 races leaving aside Go Native, this will be Queen Poline, Lacoudal, Finger on the Pulse , Osana and Get me out of Here.

I shall review the above on Tuesday and amend where necessary due to non runners etc however I do not think I shall deviate from the above much. In the meantime start betting as the prices I mention are guranteed and any non runners will be refunded so you can be certain not to lose out anything by doing this.

I wish us all luck with the recession how it is but the bookies want your money and I don’t want you to give it to them.

This analysis is years of experience and will be proved correct of that I am certain.
Let’s make some money! Shall post for Wednesday after Tuesday’s racing!!

That didnt go too well then??:rolleyes:

moonpurple

how to make money at horses,
be the bookie
or do not bet

Mad_Dave

Did alright for me
I took osana at 2pts e/w, joe lively 1pt e/w and lacoudal 1pt e/w.

+12pts makes it a pretty good first day, looking forward to your analysis for tomorrow

Amigomenor

Not quite the start we were looking for however only a small loss to show on the day which I am sure is not the case for most.

Get Me Out of Here special was too good to miss and this was the difference between a good winning and a small losing afternoon.

Osana ran a good race along with Lacoudal, however Joe Lively and Go Native disappointed. You have to feel sorry for the connections of Go Native, especially the stable staff to lose out on the bonus being offered. Binocolur was very impressive and despite nominating him as a threat to Go Native I let the price put me off recommending him.

Let’s hope Wednesday presents more winning opportunities and I believe it will. Now that the special is no longer a distraction we can concentrate on getting some cash in the pocket.

Cheltenham 13:30
The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup

Not a great start to the meeting however pays to concentrate on jockey bookings here. Derek O Connor is one of the best and I am sure he would have had his pick of Irish horses so the fact he is booked by an English trainer is of interest to me. In addition to this his ride in this race tends to race at the front (this looks important on the basis of Tuesday’s card). For that reason I am suggesting him as my tip. €50 win is the suggestion at 7/1. [URL="javascript:showProfile('horse','388147')"]Tinakellylad (IRE)[/URL] jumps well and at 25/1 paying 4places ¼ odds I suggest a saver €25 ew on him.


Cheltenham 14:05
Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

Rite of Passage has clocked some great times in his prep races (was as fast as Solwith at Leopardstown recently) and for a novice that is amazing. What is not amazing is 11/4 that is currently on offer. I will take a watching brief on this race as nothing really stands out to me. I like Peddlers Cross however 6/1 is not a great price considering the stable is not in form.

Cheltenham 14:40
Rsa Chase (grade 1)

I had fancied Weird Al to take this race however as he is out I have to take [URL="javascript:showProfile('horse','352891')"]Knockara Beau (IRE)[/URL] to do the business. He was second to Weird Al earlier this season at Cheltenham and I have always thought he had a big race in him. At 20/1 I suggest €25 EW on him. Little Josh is too big at 66/1 and I say €10 ew on him will do for me as he does not deserve to be that price.

Cheltenham 15:20
Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase (grade 1)

Another hot pot in Master Minded and I would not be surprised to see him hose up. 4/5 is not my type of price however for a horse that had a fractured rib earlier this year. Big Zeb never seems to travel well, Twist Magic can be a bit in and out form wise but [URL="javascript:showProfile('horse','342742')"]Forpadydeplasterer (IRE)[/URL] @9/1 should be spot on for this after his short break. €50 ew on him is my idea of a bet to nothing.


Cheltenham 16:00
Coral Cup (handicap Hurdle) (grade 3)

My favorite race of the day because you will get 5 places each way. I am a massive Deutschland fan but bit disappointed to see he is now 9/1. He was 25/1 10 days ago. That aside I will still put him up for €50 ew as I feel he is well in on the handicap. Aside from that I will suggest €10ew on Chief Yeoman @50/1 as he will love definitely be staying on plus he has always been a favorite of mine for popping up at big prices.

Cheltenham 16:40
Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle (grade 3)

A difficult race to work out however it tends to favour those towards the front of the betting. Was impressed by Hunterview last time out so he will do for me, €50 ew on him as I am pretty certain he will be in the first 4. Think he is the better of the Pipe duo. Kudu Country was not bad on the flat and Tom Tate knows the time of day so I shall put him up as an each way selection at 25/1 for €10 ew.

Cheltenham 17:15
Weatherbys Champion Bumper (standard Open Nh Flat Race) (grade 1)

To be honest I don’t know enough about any of these and to date they have all looked relatively impressive in their races. Liked Cue Card and Tizzard does not have many debut winners so for him to come out first time and win as easily as he did was impressive. I think that being by Kings Theatre he will be better on the fast ground and again with the ¼ odds value bet and maybe 4 place I suggest €25 ew on him.


So there you have it for today. In summary

13:30 €50 win Any Currency 8/1, €25 ew [URL="javascript:showProfile('horse','388147')"]Tinakellylad (IRE)[/URL] 33/1
14:05 No Bet
14:40 €25 ew [URL="javascript:showProfile('horse','352891')"]Knockara Beau (IRE)[/URL], €10 ew Little Josh 66/1
15:20 €50 ew [URL="javascript:showProfile('horse','342742')"]Forpadydeplasterer (IRE)[/URL]
16:00 €50 ew Deutschland @8/1 , €10 ew Chief Yeoman
16:40 $50 ew Hunterview@8/1, €10 ew Kudu Country@33/1
17:15 €25 ew Cue Card @33/1

In addition to the above suggest you cover Any Currency, Knockara Beau, Forpaddytheplasterer, Deutschland and Hunterview in an €1 ew Luncky 31 (€62). You would be amazed how quickly place money can add up, just wait and see!

NoelJ

Great betting on Cue Card. Looking forward to tomorrows now. Well done

LFC5Times

Well done on Cue Card!!!

Amigomenor

Very happy with Cue Card winning the last and hope you were all on. Would have been a disappointing day aside from that. Any Currency in the first did not jump well enough but should have been placed, while my other selection was going well when he departed.

Disappointed to see Pedlers Cross go in unbacked after tipping him up for the Tuesday but when you put your neck on the line these things happen (note Binocular the previous day)

Knockara Beau should have been placed, while both Deutschland and Hunterview were dreadful.

Aside from the above analysis I wonder how many people are ahead for the week , and on we go to the Thursday now.

Cheltenham 13:30
Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase

Good betting race to start the day. Really liked Fiendish Flam a few months back when I say him make all the running at Carlisle, he has been disappointing to me since then however I am going to suggest a little each way on him at 25/1. The Midnight Club is the other horse to interest me here and with Paul Townsend on board I am quite happy to take 20/1 available on him. Suggest 25ew on both.

Cheltenham 14:05
Pertemps Final (handicap Hurdle)

Can’t forgive Prince Erik for winning at Leopardstown last time out and costing me a very large 5 figure sum, although he won well that day I do not think he has the class to win this race. Dont Push it has a bit of class and could well like the good ground; 25ew on him at 20/1 would be my selection. Aside from that I will take a chance on Cross Kennon at 25/1 under the best looking jockey in the weight room!


Cheltenham 14:40
Ryanair Chase (registered As The Festival Trophy Chase)

A very tough race to predict as these horses tend to put in the odd bad run. Albertas Run will do ew for me under McCoy, he has a touch of class on his day and will like the ground.


Cheltenham 15:20
Ladbrokes World Hurdle (grade 1)

Its all about Big Bucks and I see no reason why he wont win, however as all those who backed Dunguid and Master Minded now know backing odds on at Cheltenham can be a very costly game with little upside. Will put up Cape Tribulation up as an ew outsider at 66/1, looked decent some time back and the ground may help him run into a place past some old timers!

Cheltenham 16:00
Byrne Group Plate (handicap Chase)

Another handicap to get stuck into and this may pay 5 places with certain bookies. For that reason I can afford to be adventurous. My 3 against the field here are listed in order of preference. Private Be, From Dusk to Dawn and In Compliance. Private Be has a great racing weight although he does make lots of jumping errors, From Disk to Dawn is a giant of a horse who will appreciate the ground and the jockey booking looks interesting. In compliance is a class act and this will be the first time he has had decent ground in ages, his run behind Joncol was not bad a few months back. Have 25we on the 3 of them at 25/1/, 20/1 and 20/1. If you are adventurous do a €1 combination fc but sure that would be the icing on the cake!

Cheltenham 16:40
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

Lots of horses that are past their best however I shall row in with Finger on the Pulse and Boychuk. Due to jockey booking I am making Boychuk my first choice although he is a bit of a dog of a horse. Have 25 ew on both at 16/1.

As I always like to cover a few horses in case I really start to click I suggest a €1 ew Lucky 31 with the following Fiendish Flame in the 1.30, Don’t Push It in the 2.05, Albertas Run in 2.40, Private Be in the 4.0c and Boychuk in the 4.40.

Summary of other selections
1.30 Fiendish Flame and the Midnight Club 25ew both
2.05 Don’t Push It and Cross Kennon 25ew both
2.40 Albertas Run 25ew
3.20 Cape Tribulation 15ew
4.0c Private Be, From Dusk to Dawn & In Compiance 25ew all 3
4.40 Boychuk and Finger on the Pulse 25ew both

topper_harley2

w00t Albertas's Run, get into bed :D

jive

Amigomenor wrote: »

4.0c Private Be, From Dusk to Dawn & In Compiance 25ew all 3

had private be and from dusk to dawn. you encouraged me to get on them two. also had tarotino dusk to dawn @ 4/1 came 3rd second race ive bet on and second profit :P had menorah in the first race to win and had blackstairmountain e/w(didnt place) and havent put anything on since then


edit; also im not after timing, i just know sweet **** all about horses so wouldnt want to inflict any of my random bets on anyone. i just read what people are saying and draw my own conclusions

Amigomenor

Good to bag another day of profit. How many people out there are ahead at this stage? As I said this blog is all about making money and so far its lived up to its title.
I am working through the analysis for Friday so shall update this later this evening. Its a good card to look forward to and although I feel I have been hitting the bar a bit with my selections I feel tomorrow will be the day of vast rewards!

Chriskavo

Amigomenor wrote: »

Good to bag another day of profit. How many people out there are ahead at this stage? As I said this blog is all about making money and so far its lived up to its title.
I am working through the analysis for Friday so shall update this later this evening. Its a good card to look forward to and although I feel I have been hitting the bar a bit with my selections I feel tomorrow will be the day of vast rewards!

Awesome picking Amigo on Cue card and Albertas Run. Wish i had been following your selections. Lost my Bo**ox last couple of days. Dunguib race looked very suspicious to me coupled with the huge publicity drive with paddy powers 'banker bet'. That horse is head and shoulders above any novice in Britain and Ireland. He cruised on the bridle all the way around and was reluctantly put into the race at the last fence when his chance was gone. In my opinion the race was fixed and jock was under orders to keep the handbrake on and throw the race. Paddy Power made themselves a packet - somewhere in the region of 13 million Euro , the race was worth around 50 grand. Doesn't take a genius to work that one out.

RocketRonnie

Desperate Cheltenham for mise so far, need a good day tomorrow to hopefully recoup my losses!!
What are your main fancy for Friday folks??

Was thinking Carlo Brigante 9/2 in the 1.30.....

Thoughts

Chriskavo

RocketRonnie wrote: »

Desperate Cheltenham for mise so far, need a good day tomorrow to hopefully recoup my losses!!
What are your main fancy for Friday folks??

Was thinking Carlo Brigante 9/2 in the 1.30.....

Thoughts

Think he has a superb chance esp. with Davy Russell on board. Kauto Star is the banker tomorrow and a banker worthy of that title.

duffers1109

Brutal Cheltenham so far, need to get back in the green somehow tomorrow. Any tips (win or e/w) be a big help? Thoughts???

Graham1978

Looking forward to your selections for tomorrow,big day out cant wiat :D

LFC5Times

Well done again OP, keep it up.

Parkeyboi

keep them coming. tomorows goin 2 be the day. i can feel it

Amigomenor

Firstly I shall address one of the points made above before getting into the days analysis. I do not feel that Dunguib was stopped in any way for the benefit of Paddy Powers or other bookies, this special was given as it was the first race of the meeting and Powers wanted you in the door so as you would do your days bets in their shops and if Dunguib did win they would hope to cover some of their losses with favourable place results on Oscar Whiskey , Get me out of Here and other horses that people availing of the special backed. In addition to this if Dunguib won they would hope you would do your bets in Powers the following day as you had winning’s to collect there. My suggested bet on Get Me Out of Here was purely on the basis of value being attained and in gambling that is everything.

The comments that Fenton would have given the O’Connell before hand would have been setltle the horses at the back and make sure he gets a good sight of his hurdles, then make ground down the hill and see if you can outstay them. This did not happen as the pace was not strong enough and the ground was too fast for a horse coming from behind. This has been a trend of all the races this week.

Now on to business!

Cheltenham 13:30
Jcb Triumph Hurdle

This is a very hard race on these novice hurdlers and if I had a good horse I would not run him here. Liked Westlin Winds last time out and like the break he has had since, the jockey is very capable and the trainer is very shrewd. He is my ew selection. Carlito Brigante has looked good on his last few runs but this is very different ground and he is very short at 5/1, I will go as far as to say I can not see him in the first 3. Advisor is the other horse I like here but I shall just stick with 1 selection in this race.

Cheltenham 14:05
Vincent O'brien County Handicap Hurdle

As you know by now 5 place (maybe 6) and ¼ the odds, lets make some money!
Secret Dancer looks the one to me, looked like an improving sort 3 runs back and excuses can be made for his last 2 runs, Bahrain Storm is a class act on his day and 28/1 is way too big a price for him, he won so well at Galway last year you could not see him out of the first 4 in this. Finally Santa’s Son is a good horse on his day, this year he has been carrying big weights over fences so 10.6 will be like a feather on his back so I cant leave him out of my calculations. 25 e w on all 3.

Cheltenham 14:40
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

Not mad keen on this race however I have a special theory I apply for Cheltenham. This will sound crazy to some but lets just hold that thought. My belief is that is a horse falls early at the festival and comes out again later at the meeting you should get on. 2 reasons behind this, the first is that the connections must fancy him strongly to run again and second the price will be better than it would have been on the first day. Quel Esprit fits the mould here and I suggest 50 win on him at13/2. Aside from this I do not see much value in this race so will not suggest any other bets. In the case of my selection being a non runner I will suggest Premier Victory e/w but only if the selection does not run as this race is only 1/2/3 places.

Cheltenham 15:20
Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup

Not a great betting race but will give my thoughts on this. Kauto looks like a star however he is getting on in years, Denman was poor last time out but is a class act on his day. The each way value is gone on Cooldine (improving) and Tricky Trickster(outclassed). Imperial Commander has looked good round here before and if you forced me I would go for him eway. The others look outclassed and cant realistically be give a chance.
Recommend no bet but reckon the result will be Kauto beating Denman with Imperial Commander in 3rd.

Cheltenham 16:00
Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

I like this race and always seem to come up with a horse who runs well at a big price. I fancied Southwestern for this last year and I do so again this year, still cant get his last fence fall at Punchestown in 2008 out of my head as he was going to slaughter a good class field for this type of race. Going to suggest 50ew on him at 20/1 or higher if you can get it as I think he is the bet of the day. The only downside to this race is they normally pay 1/2/3 but sure that does not matter when you win! Will also suggest 15ew on On the Net as his after all ridden by Mr O Connor (he is the best in Ireland!)

Cheltenham 16:40
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Love of Tara will do for me here for starters as I think her run behind Strawberry was decent and she will appreciate the drop back in distance here. Dansimar should run a good race, last time out he was staying on giving weight to the winner and I though this was a good performance. Have 25ew on both.

Cheltenham 17:15
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup Handicap (grade 3)

Getting out race has arrived for some but for us it will be getting more! This is a race that can throw up surprises . Beggars Cap was going very well last year when he unshipped his rider last year and I reckon this was the plan since the moment G Lee hit the deck (which he should not have done if you ask me). I suggest 25ew on him. Moon over Miami is a hard horse to predict however at 25/1 he should not be ignored at a course he loves. Tartak is my other ew choice here as I was sure he would be a better horse this year than he has currently turned out, the ground will be in his favour. 25ew on all these 3 with 4 maybe 5 places.

In summary my selections are as follows

1.30 Westlin Winds 25ew
2.05 Secret Dancer 16/1 , Bahrain Storm 28/1, Santas Son @66/1 25ew all 3
2.40 Quel Esprit 50 win
3.20 No bet , just enjoy
4.0c Southwestern 50 e/w @20/1 On the Net 15ew @33/1
4.40Love of Tara @25/1 /Damsimar @16/1 25ew both
5.15 Tartak 14/1, Beggars Cap 16/1 and Moon over Miami 25/1 25ew all 3


As always the EW Lucky 31 (€62) on the following Secret Dancer, Quel Esprit, Southwestern, Love of Tara, Beggars Cap.

And that concludes our week, lets see how the figures tie up after the last. Let me know you stories of monies you have won and tell me if my objective in giving you a winning week has been achieved. My aim is to pass on 20 years of knowledge to you all with a view to ensuring you have more money in your pockets by the time Friday comes. Unlike newspaper tipsters who talk up the fancied horses ( Value Scope and Pricewise excluded) the remainder of them are pretty crap and lead people astray! Good luck all

I apologise for grammar/spelling errors I am more interested in content.

aflib

thanks for that.hopefully i can win back a few bob that ive lost over the week

crispsandwiches

Amigo, thanks for all the effort put in well appreciated here. Great analysis and i like the strategy of backing fallen horses entered in different races at the meeting.

fingers crossed today.

crisp sambo

Mad_Dave

after a shocker of a day yesterday I'm using the last of my meager cheltenham allowance in a death or glory lucky 15 on your selections of secret dancer, quel esprit, southwestern and love of tara.
wish me luck

0 for 2 so far...however a place in each of the final two races and I break even for the festival

0 for 4. ah well, thanks for the analysis anyways.

Dave147

I've lost my bollocks today on these horses, ****ing kauto falling aswell!

abrr1000

20 years and still none the wiser.
I had 10 each way on imperial commender :cool:

Parkeyboi

20 years experience! hmmm...interesting. bit of a clown i think?

Feeky Magee

Nice one Amigo... €85 down the swanny. :rolleyes:

SD1990

yere own choice to bet on his selections:rolleyes:


imperial commander you beaut

Kod-box

Tataniano a n/r in this one fs

was on it myself from early in the week.

Threw the money on Nicholls other one instead, Free World.

x PyRo

To the complainers, serves you all right for backing someone you don't even know during a festival, it's a lottery anyone can win the races.

dotsflan

Feeky Magee wrote: »

Nice one Amigo... €85 down the swanny. :rolleyes:

didnt realise he was holding a gun to your balls to place the bets:rolleyes:

oconnon9

fair play 2 ya 4 puttin up ur tips, cos i no if i did id be ****in embarrased! not 1 winner i had! cheltenham is the devil!!!

Feeky Magee

dotsflan wrote: »

didnt realise he was holding a gun to your balls to place the bets:rolleyes:

Era I was only taking the piss. Tap water for me out on the lash this weekend anyway.

Amigomenor

A very poor day today unfortunately but overall made just over 1k from the recommended bets over the 4 days. 2 winners at 40/1 and 14/1 plus a host of placed efforts from a number of large priced horses is not a bad return for the meeting.

I wonder how many people made money from their own selections on this meeting, my guess would be not very many. In addition to this aside from Pricewise I did not see many tipsters giving winners at this meeting.

I am happy to provide tips for the bigger race days if people wish as my objective is for people to make money at the bookies and not lose. If I have 5 positive replies I shall give some tips for the Midland National tomorrow however if i dont recieve these I am happy to leave these postings for now.

If I continue I shall amend the anaysis to a points based system like they do in the papers, i.e 1pt win or 1pt ew on a scale of 1-10pts.

If you read my analysis over the 4 days you will actually see I was a little unlucky overall and went off Peddlers Cross, Binocluar and even today Imperial commander.

I shall await your replies. Apologies to all who lost today but these things will happen in gambling, the rule is not to chase your losses and enjoy your wins. Also never gamble beyond your means as you lose the enjoyment of the sport.

Anyhow I have enjoyed this blog and it has lived up to its title, therefore I deem it a success for me.

Later

mjth2004

It's called gambling for a reason folks - you win some, you lose some! Amigomenor over a bag of sand in the black is alright for a week's work - well done!

Nulty

Amigomenor wrote: »

Firstly I shall address one of the points made above before getting into the days analysis. I do not feel that Dunguib was stopped in any way for the benefit of Paddy Powers or other bookies, this special was given as it was the first race of the meeting and Powers wanted you in the door so as you would do your days bets in their shops and if Dunguib did win they would hope to cover some of their losses with favourable place results on Oscar Whiskey , Get me out of Here and other horses that people availing of the special backed. In addition to this if Dunguib won they would hope you would do your bets in Powers the following day as you had winning’s to collect there. My suggested bet on Get Me Out of Here was purely on the basis of value being attained and in gambling that is everything.

The comments that Fenton would have given the O’Connell before hand would have been setltle the horses at the back and make sure he gets a good sight of his hurdles, then make ground down the hill and see if you can outstay them. This did not happen as the pace was not strong enough and the ground was too fast for a horse coming from behind. This has been a trend of all the races this week.

Now on to business!

Absolutely spot on IMO

Nulty

Didn't have too many bets but did well with the ones I made ALL MY OWN SELECTIONS

Winners/Places all ew

GMOOH
Burton Port
Forpady
Ogee
Albertas Run
Barizan
Imperial Commander
Pigeon Island

Losers

Somersby (win)
Rite of Passage
Lie Forrit/ WOA
Grade
On the Net
Carlito B

Biggest wins Albertas run, Pigeon Island & Imperial Commander
Biggest losers Carlito & Garde

jive

post some more analysis it's an interesting read plus i made money (2 euro, placed €1 on 3 horses in 1 race, 2 of which u tipped and 1 of em placed )