Why would Irish propery recover to pre crash levels?

SLUSK

Why do people believe that Irish real estate both commercial real estate and private residents should recover to pree crash levels?

The Nikkei has not come back to the levels before the huge stock market crash in the early 90-ies. Japanese property has not recovered to its former highs. The NASDAQ has not come back to the levels it was before the tech bubble crash.

My question is to you, what makes anyone think Irish property will recover to pre crash levels, like 2006 levels.

silverharp

How do you know anyone does? Apart from some platitudes on the radio, I'd assume most people feel that property will at best stagnate

ei.sdraob

good question considering the whole of the NAMA scam is based on the hope prices returning to "normal" (sickening)

silverharp

ei.sdraob wrote: »

good question considering the whole of the NAMA scam is based on the hope prices returning to "normal" (sickening)

Do you think so, or the hope that there would be a "normal" market where property actually moves and borrowers have access to reasonable credit. I cant imagine anyone wants to get back to 40 year mortgages and whatever you are having yourself.

AARRRGH

The reason many people believe this is because most people make decisions/live their life based on emotion rather than on logic.

ei.sdraob

Silverharp2 wrote: »

Do you think so, or the hope that there would be a "normal" market where property actually moves and borrowers have access to reasonable credit. I cant imagine anyone wants to get back to 40 year mortgages and whatever you are having yourself.

please tell me what about the house prices in the last decade was "normal"

how do you expect to return to "normal" with more empty houses (300,000+) than rented houses? that's unparalleled anywhere else in world and definitely not "normal"!





source 1 and source 2

Silverharp2

Silverharp2 wrote: »

Do you think so, or the hope that there would be a "normal" market where property actually moves and borrowers have access to reasonable credit. I cant imagine anyone wants to get back to 40 year mortgages and whatever you are having yourself.

Lenihan himself claimed that NAMA is there to put a floor under house prices
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=24661

Idiot of the highest order will ruin us all

Oireachtas transcript at Lenihan's answer of 3:05:11
http://debates.oireachtas.ie/DDebate.aspx?F=FIJ20090831.xml&Page=1&Ex=H2#H2



^^^^^
go to page 4 of 6 and it's this interaction:

Deputy Brian Lenihan: It is all very well appointing watchdogs but one must ensure they bark. That +

Deputy Kieran O’Donnell: It depends on the dog one buys.


Deputy Pat Rabbitte: One must also ensure they do not bite one.

Deputy Brian Lenihan: That tends to be the conflict....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWlz1IKWfw4

That man is ruining this country

Head The Wall

Systems failure 2005 Q1??

View

SLUSK wrote: »

Why do people believe that Irish real estate both commercial real estate and private residents should recover to pree crash levels?

Mass immigration once the economy recovers would boost demand and, hence, property prices. We just have to figure out the recovery bit first though...

ei.sdraob

View wrote: »

Mass immigration once the economy recovers would boost demand and, hence, property prices. We just have to figure out the recovery bit first though...

we can build houses and then demolish them

View

ei.sdraob wrote: »

we can build houses and then demolish them

Well that'd work too if we demolished enough of them.

Mind you, we don't need to do that. Apparently there are 90 million or so Turks who'd happily swop the warmth of Turkey for the cold of Leitrim if we'd only let them into the EU. Maybe we could all move to Turkey and avail of all the vacant property they leave behind?

jmayo

SLUSK wrote: »

Why do people believe that Irish real estate both commercial real estate and private residents should recover to pree crash levels?

The Nikkei has not come back to the levels before the huge stock market crash in the early 90-ies. Japanese property has not recovered to its former highs. The NASDAQ has not come back to the levels it was before the tech bubble crash.

My question is to you, what makes anyone think Irish property will recover to pre crash levels, like 2006 levels.

Sssh stop using reason and logic FFS.

The Irish property bubble, sorry correction not a bubble at all at all, but Irish property reaching it's correct rightful levels after years of being undervalued (at least that was according to some commentators ) was/is different. :rolleyes:

Deleted User wrote: »

Lenihan himself claimed that NAMA is there to put a floor under house prices
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=24661

Idiot of the highest order will ruin us all

Oireachtas transcript at Lenihan's answer of 3:05:11
http://debates.oireachtas.ie/DDebate.aspx?F=FIJ20090831.xml&Page=1&Ex=H2#H2



^^^^^
go to page 4 of 6 and it's this interaction:

Deputy Brian Lenihan: It is all very well appointing watchdogs but one must ensure they bark. That +

Deputy Kieran O’Donnell: It depends on the dog one buys.


Deputy Pat Rabbitte: One must also ensure they do not bite one.

Deputy Brian Lenihan: That tends to be the conflict....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWlz1IKWfw4

That man is ruining this country

At last someone speaking the truth and not some numpty ar**licking him and lauding him as some saviour both of the country and ff.

PS Here comes oppneheimer to shout me down

View wrote: »

Mass immigration once the economy recovers would boost demand and, hence, property prices. We just have to figure out the recovery bit first though...

he he don't you mean emigration and when the economy doesn't recover but stagnates ?

View wrote: »

Well that'd work too if we demolished enough of them.

Mind you, we don't need to do that. Apparently there are 90 million or so Turks who'd happily swop the warmth of Turkey for the cold of Leitrim if we'd only let them into the EU. Maybe we could all move to Turkey and avail of all the vacant property they leave behind?

It gets much colder in parts of central Turkey than Leitrim you know.
Can I ask why the fe** everyone always singles out Leitrim and I would hazard a guess most people on this site that do have never been in the county ?

They did build too many houses everywhere.
Lets use some eastern towns as examples I can find enough of them.

BTW if Turkey is allowed into EU, which I very much doubt, then I am opening a goat farm.

oppenheimer1

PS Here comes oppneheimer to shout me down

Like a moth to a flame...

jmayo wrote: »

Sssh stop using reason and logic FFS.

The Irish property bubble, sorry correction not a bubble at all at all, but Irish property reaching it's correct rightful levels after years of being undervalued (at least that was according to some commentators ) was/is different. :rolleyes:



At last someone speaking the truth and not some numpty ar**licking him and lauding him as some saviour both of the country and ff.




he he don't you mean emigration and when the economy doesn't recover but stagnates ?

I don't know when Irish property will reach its 2006 levels, not least until we are certain prices have bottomed out. When they do, typical inflation would mean prices double roughly every 15 years assuming an asset bubble doesn't form again. Assuming a typical 3 bed bottoms out at 100k down from a high of 300k I guess you're looking at a period of over 20 years for prices to return. The market is still sluggish at the moment, though I do expect it to partially turn soon. Inflation is set to make a return as interest rates will rise from historic low levels. For anyone in a secure financial position it might make sense for them to purchase soon close to the bottom of the market on a fixed rate mortgage. This might encourage a small rise in house prices in desirable locations, thus encouraging more people to buy. Due to oversupply in rural areas the impact of inflation will probably take substantially longer to manifest itself in an increase.

Nama will encourage a floor to be reached as it will prevent a glut of firesales hitting the market at the same time. Nama will be ale to control supply to the market, so will control price to a certain extent.

In our case the sale of assets to recoup losses for banks as quickly as normally would be damaging as it would mean the banks would have to take further hits to their balance sheets. It also does mean that houses will be more expensive than they should had the free market reigned supreme.

SLUSK

Brian Lenihan says out loud that one of the purposes of NAMA is to make it unaffordable to buy a home. As I said before the ideology of the ruling party in Ireland is called Bertieism

oppenheimer1

SLUSK wrote: »

Brian Lenihan says out loud that one of the purposes of NAMA is to make it unaffordable to buy a home. As I said before the ideology of the ruling party in Ireland is called Bertieism

Thats rather inflammatory language. I would say hes preventing the market from crashing.

If you take ei. helpful post and if you view the period between 1990 and 1996 as a normal economic period then if you extend that trend it would seem to indicate that prices still have to fall substantially. However if you consider the period 1996-2001 as a period of exceptional real growth and continue the pre 1996 trend from 2001, one would see that we are at the bottom of the market. The reality probably lies somewhere between those two extremes, as we were due a short sharp correction in 2001. We are near the real bottom, but not quite there yet.

If NAMA holds house prices above where they should be by controlling supply, its likely prices will stagnate at this threshold.

SLUSK

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Thats rather inflammatory language. I would say hes preventing the market from crashing.

If you take ei. helpful post and if you view the period between 1990 and 1996 as a normal economic period then if you extend that trend it would seem to indicate that prices still have to fall substantially. However if you consider the period 1996-2001 as a period of exceptional real growth and continue the pre 1996 trend from 2001, one would see that we are at the bottom of the market. The reality probably lies somewhere between those two extremes, as we were due a short sharp correction in 2001. We are near the real bottom, but not quite there yet.

If NAMA holds house prices above where they should be by controlling supply, its likely prices will stagnate at this threshold.

Why is it the governments business to keep houses unaffordable? Sounds like crony capitalism at its worst to me.

oppenheimer1

SLUSK wrote: »

Why is it the governments business to keep houses unaffordable? Sounds like crony capitalism at its worst to me.

Unaffordable is a loaded word. But yes, it would seem prices will be propped up by the control of supply. If all the unsold property were to flood the market at once, houses would be very cheap, but then the government would have to put even more money into the banks to keep them alive. I'd rather see a homeowner overpay, because at least they are getting something for their money, rather than have the taxpayer essentially subsidise their cheap house.

Euro_Kraut

Hi Op, just wondering who has been suggesting that property will return to pre crash levels?

I can't see it happening for many many yeras. We are completely overstocked and we are losing the house buying generation to emigration. The weakening demand and over supply will lead to lower price for years to come.

SLUSK

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Unaffordable is a loaded word. But yes, it would seem prices will be propped up by the control of supply. If all the unsold property were to flood the market at once, houses would be very cheap, but then the government would have to put even more money into the banks to keep them alive. I'd rather see a homeowner overpay, because at least they are getting something for their money, rather than have the taxpayer essentially subsidise their cheap house.

I think we should let the market sort things out unlike the advocates of crony capitalism.

oppenheimer1

SLUSK wrote: »

I think we should let the market sort things out unlike the advocates of crony capitalism.

The consequences of not taking any action would be very severe, a near total collapse of all the retail banks in the country. Without a payments system, you are loooking at total chaos, a slide of the country into outright bankruptcy and becoming a true basket case. In an ideal world I'd say let the market do its thing, but the consequences of letting the market deal with the mess would be far too painful.

SLUSK

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The consequences of not taking any action would be very severe, a near total collapse of all the retail banks in the country. Without a payments system, you are loooking at total chaos, a slide of the country into outright bankruptcy and becoming a true basket case. In an ideal world I'd say let the market do its thing, but the consequences of letting the market deal with the mess would be far too painful.

Where is the proof this would be the case?

jimmycrackcorm

Of course property prices will return to pre-crash levels. The op is clearly an a benign soul for thinking otherwise... Does he really believe that in 100 years from now that prices will not have recovered?

fuelinjection

Prices in 2005/2006 were set by how much a Bank would lend to a young couple in two low incomes to buy a badly built house in Co Wicklow or Co. Meath for 450,000 Euro. The Banks will never again lend out this kind of money as the International markets were printing their own money that was imaginary cash, and so now Irish banks are left with 25-30 year mortgages that "might" be all repaid.
Expect to see out NAMA (which mean us Irish people) owned Banks look to savings for the next 20 years as their only way to make money as their debts are obscene. So the chance for idiot builders selling ****ty built appartments and ****ty houses to Irish people at 450,000 euro is long gone and will never return. Thank God.

silverharp

ei.sdraob wrote: »

please tell me what about the house prices in the last decade was "normal"

how do you expect to return to "normal" with more empty houses (300,000+) than rented houses? that's unparalleled anywhere else in world and definitely not "normal"!

I never said I thought they would succeed:D My question was about what the "hoped for" objectives were. But again it will be another fail

gurramok

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The consequences of not taking any action would be very severe, a near total collapse of all the retail banks in the country. Without a payments system, you are loooking at total chaos, a slide of the country into outright bankruptcy and becoming a true basket case. In an ideal world I'd say let the market do its thing, but the consequences of letting the market deal with the mess would be far too painful.

We are a basket case already heavily living of borrowed money to prop up the banks via capitalisation and Nama as a result of the bubble.
So the longer they try to control the supply, the longer this crash will go on. Its a no win situation for those trying to create an artificial floor.

To answer the OP question, perhaps it will be the turn of the next generation to see '06 price levels again.

MaceFace

SLUSK wrote: »

Why do people believe that Irish real estate both commercial real estate and private residents should recover to pree crash levels?

The Nikkei has not come back to the levels before the huge stock market crash in the early 90-ies. Japanese property has not recovered to its former highs. The NASDAQ has not come back to the levels it was before the tech bubble crash.

My question is to you, what makes anyone think Irish property will recover to pre crash levels, like 2006 levels.

Because people are idiots and it is these same idiots who will determine where the house prices go, not the politicians, nor the developers.

And when I saw idiots, I really mean it - these idtios really thought that a shoebox apartment no where near the city center was worth a quarter of a million quid, or a 3 bed semi in a "nice" housing estate was worth over half a million quid.

That is why I have no sympathy for these idiots and aportion most of the blame on these idiots who idiotically asked the bank for stupid amounts of money.

At some stage in the future, the idiots will return and decide that property is worth many muliples of the cost. Who knows when that will be, and how aggressive they will return........

ei.sdraob

gurramok wrote: »

We are a basket case already heavily living of borrowed money to prop up the banks via capitalisation and Nama as a result of the bubble.
So the longer they try to control the supply, the longer this crash will go on. Its a no win situation for those trying to create an artificial floor.

To answer the OP question, perhaps it will be the turn of the next generation to see '06 price levels again.

good post

while I agree with most of what @oppenheimer1 says (inflation slowly bringing it back) i disagree on the timing

I also disagree with his thesis that the government (ie taxpayer) must keep the banks afloat at all costs, but thats for another thread

NAMA and the oversupply factors alone would ensure that theres a slow and steady rot "Japanese" style for the next decade with prices not returning to 06-07 levels until sometime after 2030

you can not control the market, all that NAMA would do is prolong the inevitable correction

the difference between NAMA option and the quick sharp correction option is that NAMA is ensuring the government stays in power, and it ensure the people who took on the most risk get away from their responsibilities
the taxpayer gets screwed either way, with NAMA doubly so

The_Honeybadger

MaceFace wrote: »

Because people are idiots and it is these same idiots who will determine where the house prices go, not the politicians, nor the developers.

The banks are the biggest factor in house prices IMO. When they were lending like there was no tomorrow house prices went through the roof because anybody could get on the property ladder, 100% mortgages and more sometimes, people adding cars onto their mortgage even. This will never happen again, it will be extremely difficult to obtain a mortgage going forward unless you are in rock solid employment, that will stifle the market and we may see some sort of gov intervention for first time buyers, Nama doing mortgages maybe :eek:. I'm with ei.sraob on this, we have been sold the greatest crock of s**t ever to be inflicted on any nation and will be looking back in a decade or so saying, what the hell were we thinking after it costs us tens of billions (not that we will ever be told the truth about how much it actually cost us). So OP I can't ever see house prices recovering in real terms to 2006 levels, and rightly so, anybody who bought in that period is in negative equity now for good reason.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/castlethorns---52acre-shankill-site-written-down-to-5-cent-in-euro-2096861.html

A 52-acre residential site in Shankill, Co Dublin, owned by developer Joe O'Reilly and a group of investors put together by Davy has been written down to 5 cent in the euro.

The investors sank €52m into the project,

worth 5% now :eek: NAMA is going to be worse than had we let the banks fail. Had we let them fail it would have been an extremely severe but short recession. Far better than having this drag out for over 10 years easily.

Default is now a better alternative to NAMA as Lenihan the prick is moving loans like the one above into NAMA.

Flamed Diving

SLUSK wrote: »

I think we should let the market sort things out unlike the advocates of crony capitalism.

See that? See what he did there? If you don't think we should let the market simply sort it out (markets are always efficient, remember), then that means you are an advocate of crony capitalism.


Get it?


See what he did? No way out of that dichotomy, I tells ya.


Genius...

woodseb

ei.sdraob wrote: »

the difference between NAMA option and the quick sharp correction option is that NAMA is ensuring the government stays in power, and it ensure the people who took on the most risk get away from their responsibilities

how does NAMA ensure that seanie fitz gets away from his responsibilties as opposed to the 'quick sharp correction option'?

i know some/alot of people dislike the plan, but it doesn't help that people make up stuff about it.....

ei.sdraob

woodseb wrote: »

how does NAMA ensure that seanie fitz gets away from his responsibilties as opposed to the 'quick sharp correction option'?

i know some/alot of people dislike the plan, but it doesn't help that people make up stuff about it.....

companies have limited liabilities and can walk away from debt, and many will do just that once they dump their rubbish on NAMA or once they realise theres no way in hell they can payback the debt, some companies are still clinging to that hope of a recovery

the likes of Fitz who have personal guarantees can still escape paying fully since theres no chance in hell they be evicted out of their primary place of residence

The_Honeybadger

ei.sdraob wrote: »

companies have limited liabilities and can walk away from debt, and many will do just that once they dump their rubbish on NAMA or once they realise theres no way in hell they can payback the debt, some companies are still clinging to that hope of a recovery

the likes of Fitz who have personal guarantees can still escape paying fully since theres no chance in hell they be evicted out of their primary place of residence

Can they come after his pension, heard on the radio this morning that his pension is 500k p.a. :eek:

woodseb

ei.sdraob wrote: »

companies have limited liabilities and can walk away from debt, and many will do just that once they dump their rubbish on NAMA or once they realise theres no way in hell they can payback the debt, some companies are still clinging to that hope of a recovery

the likes of Fitz who have personal guarantees can still escape paying fully since theres no chance in hell they be evicted out of their primary place of residence

yeah mate, limited liability is the law of the land, nothing to do with NAMA:rolleyes:

and in the case of sean fitz and david drumm, anglo are pursuing their debts through the courts to the full extent of the law.....

ei.sdraob

mickeyk wrote: »

Can they come after his pension, heard on the radio this morning that his pension is 500k p.a. :eek:

since he is personally involved and liable in this then i presume they can

tho anything in his wife's name or any shell companies might escape and of course the primary house wont be touched since no one ever gets evicted here

im sure he was busy "diversifying" for the last year

ei.sdraob

woodseb wrote: »

yeah mate, limited liability is the law of the land, nothing to do with NAMA:rolleyes:

it has everything to do with NAMA

if a construction company owes 100 million to lets say AIB, and its loan is moved to NAMA, provided there are no personal guarantees, the company can walk away from this debt by declaring bankruptcy

and NAMA looses out

if NAMA losses that means taxpayers loose

apparently the banks will be "made to pay" a surcharge in these cases, but whose money will they be paying with? yep you guessed it

woodseb wrote: »

and in the case of sean fitz and david drumm, anglo are pursuing their debts through the courts to the full extent of the law.....

an i hope they claw-back as much as possible, ill bet he managed to hide alot of his wealth by now

woodseb

ei.sdraob wrote: »

it has everything to do with NAMA

if a construction company owes 100 million to lets say AIB, and its loan is moved to NAMA, provided there are no personal guarantees, the company can walk away from this debt by declaring bankruptcy

and NAMA looses out

if NAMA losses that means taxpayers loose

apparently the banks will be "made to pay" a surcharge in these cases, but whose money will they be paying with? yep you guessed it

the loans that are going into nama are already in this scenario more or less which is why they are being mostly valued on the value of the asset not the loan (whether the value is correct is another debate and not for this thread). most firms will walk away from their debt a whole lot quicker under the banks that within NAMA anyway as NAMA can afford to wait longer for repayment as it is designed for the long term

anyway, i've already debated NAMA ad nauseum with you in other threads...... my main point is that you linked NAMA to seanie fitz walking away from his debts. they are not related and it is impossible to have a sensible debate on the issue with people linking to two issues

jmayo

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Like a moth to a flame...

I don't know when Irish property will reach its 2006 levels, not least until we are certain prices have bottomed out. When they do, typical inflation would mean prices double roughly every 15 years assuming an asset bubble doesn't form again. Assuming a typical 3 bed bottoms out at 100k down from a high of 300k I guess you're looking at a period of over 20 years for prices to return. The market is still sluggish at the moment, though I do expect it to partially turn soon. Inflation is set to make a return as interest rates will rise from historic low levels. For anyone in a secure financial position it might make sense for them to purchase soon close to the bottom of the market on a fixed rate mortgage. This might encourage a small rise in house prices in desirable locations, thus encouraging more people to buy. Due to oversupply in rural areas the impact of inflation will probably take substantially longer to manifest itself in an increase.

Nama will encourage a floor to be reached as it will prevent a glut of firesales hitting the market at the same time. Nama will be ale to control supply to the market, so will control price to a certain extent.

In our case the sale of assets to recoup losses for banks as quickly as normally would be damaging as it would mean the banks would have to take further hits to their balance sheets. It also does mean that houses will be more expensive than they should had the free market reigned supreme.

One word answer to your hypothesis : JAPAN.

We haven't reached the bottom yet if we were to go on asking prices and guesstimate that actaul selling price was say 20% below this.
Of course because we don't have visibility of actual selling prices leaves us guessing.

Sorry to rain on your little parade but we have chronic over supply of property in cities and towns, even in Leinster nevermind the posters favour Leitrim. :rolleyes:

So one of NAMA's little purposes is to keep property prices artifically high.
Do you not see a problem with that ?

From reading your post you appear to be hinting that if they have to sell property then the asking price will be reasonably high in order to get larger portion of the defaulted loans back.
Except one problem with this would be that no one is willing to pay these high asking prices because they know it is overvalued.

Why should anyone invest in property of any kind, residential or commerical ?
An investor would know that they are buying at too high a price.
This is one reason that commerical property in this country is not going to shift.

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Thats rather inflammatory language. I would say hes preventing the market from crashing.

If you take ei. helpful post and if you view the period between 1990 and 1996 as a normal economic period then if you extend that trend it would seem to indicate that prices still have to fall substantially. However if you consider the period 1996-2001 as a period of exceptional real growth and continue the pre 1996 trend from 2001, one would see that we are at the bottom of the market. The reality probably lies somewhere between those two extremes, as we were due a short sharp correction in 2001. We are near the real bottom, but not quite there yet.

If NAMA holds house prices above where they should be by controlling supply, its likely prices will stagnate at this threshold.

So now we must prevent the banks from crashing at any cost and we must prevent the housing market from crashing at any cost.
Is there anything else we should really prevent from crashing, perhaps the productive enterprises in the economy ?
Oh wait Irish economy is the Irish banks and Irish property :rolleyes:

jmayo

MaceFace wrote: »

Because people are idiots and it is these same idiots who will determine where the house prices go, not the politicians, nor the developers.

And when I saw idiots, I really mean it - these idtios really thought that a shoebox apartment no where near the city center was worth a quarter of a million quid, or a 3 bed semi in a "nice" housing estate was worth over half a million quid.

That is why I have no sympathy for these idiots and aportion most of the blame on these idiots who idiotically asked the bank for stupid amounts of money.

At some stage in the future, the idiots will return and decide that property is worth many muliples of the cost. Who knows when that will be, and how aggressive they will return........

You wouldn't be in ff by any chance ?

Yes people were idiots, but weren't the bankers bigger idiots to give them 100% mortgages, interest only mortgages for these shoeboxes ?

And that is before I even mention the fact that the banks also gave 1 billion loans to certain individuals to build those shoeboxes, to build those retail centres.

Weren't the developers even bigger idiots to actaully think that paying a couple of million an acre for a plot of land was stupid seeing as someday they would no longer be able to seel the properties on it for such collosal amounts ?

Weren't the regulators idiots for not actually ensuring the banks kept adequate capital in case these crazy loans were defaulted ?

And this leads to the ultimate responsible idiots.

Weren't the government not meant to ensure that we did not as an economy become over reliant on any one sector, especially one that did not add to exports and was not long term sustainable ?
Weren't the dept of finance under minister mcgreevey / clowen meant to oversee and monitor our financial institutions through the regulatory authorities and ensure the long term viability of our financial system as a whole ?

Weren't the dept finance under minister mcgreevey / clowen not the ones who had the ability to implement tax policies that would have ensured the idiot buyers would not be tempted into the market as investors ?

woodseb

jmayo wrote: »

One word answer to your hypothesis : JAPAN.

Japan is just one example from history, it doesn't disprove a hypothesis

jmayo wrote: »

You wouldn't be in ff by any chance ?

I think the mods should start clamping down on this **** :mad:

ei.sdraob

woodseb wrote: »

Japan is just one example from history, it doesn't disprove a hypothesis

@woodseb

this whole thread can be summarized in this crude drawing




im leaning towards a "Japan scenario", keep in mind that in Japan they didn't have such an amount of oversupply either as here, and they dont have the Fianna Fail variable

jmayo

woodseb wrote: »

Japan is just one example from history, it doesn't disprove a hypothesis

True and I guess your next argument is that we are different :rolleyes:
Every bubble has resulted in drops usually below the starting point of the bubble curve.
After that I would bet there is period of stagnation and looking at our current economic and banking difficulties I don't see any reason to surmise that we are going to see property price growth anytime soon.

woodseb wrote: »

I think the mods should start clamping down on this **** :mad:

Did you bother reading the rest of the post or would you agree with maceface ?

Perhaps we should turn the place into askaboutmoney where certain topics are not debated at all ?
Well I asked that question half in gest, seeing as the poster exhibits classic traits of that party as they seek to now channel the blame for this entire mess on the general public.
Of the general public I would say the only ones to blame for the country's mess are the ones that continually support and vote for ff.
The rest are just to blame for their own personal messes and in most cases they are trying to sort them out.

BTW the only ones I know that think NAMA is a good idea are bankers, ffers, developers, builders and vested interests like EAs.
Everyone else appears to pick holes in it and see the folly of the plan.

woodseb

ei.sdraob wrote: »

@woodseb


im leaning towards a "Japan scenario", keep in mind that in Japan they didn't have such an amount of oversupply either as here, and they dont have the Fianna Fail variable

japan is one scenario no doubt - you can lean towards that all you like but it doesn't disprove any opinion that property prices may trend upward again along with economic growth and inflation which has been the norm in many western economies

SkepticOne

Here's a graph of house prices adjusted for inflation over the last 40 years.



I don't think we're returning to pre-crash levels any time soon.

ei.sdraob

woodseb wrote: »

japan is one scenario no doubt - you can lean towards that all you like but it doesn't disprove any opinion that property prices may trend upward again along with economic growth and inflation which has been the norm in many western economies

i didnt disagree with that prices will "trend up with inflation", yes that will happen eventually
i disagree (as mentioned earlier in thread) with your opinion that it will happen in the time-frame of NAMA (decade or so)
the way I see it (thank you SkepticOne for graph) we have a some way to fall yet, and slightly overshoot the bottom before slow inflation growth resumes
hell the likes of Morgan Kelly think we wont reach same levels again until 2050s, in his recent paper


i have no vested interest (im not in property or invest in it) to see prices either rise or fall, i have a house (bought and build in cash very recently) and no debt so its all the same to me which way prices go, my only problem is that if NAMA fails (not if, when NAMA fails) the bill will have to be payed by me via taxation now that would affect me directly

woodseb

jmayo wrote: »

True and I guess your next argument is that we are different :rolleyes:

far be it for me to suggest that a smalll open economy in western europe may be different from a G7 country in asia:rolleyes:

does that position not have anything worth debating?

jmayo wrote: »

Did you bother reading the rest of the post or would you agree with maceface ?

Perhaps we should turn the place into askaboutmoney where certain topics are not debated at all ?
Well I asked that question half in gest, seeing as the poster exhibits classic traits of that party as they seek to now channel the blame for this entire mess on the general public.
Of the general public I would say the only ones to blame for the country's mess are the ones that continually support and vote for ff.
The rest are just to blame for their own personal messes and in most cases they are trying to sort them out.

BTW the only ones I know that think NAMA is a good idea are bankers, ffers, developers, builders and vested interests like EAs.
Everyone else appears to pick holes in it and see the folly of the plan.

I'm not trying to stifle debate here any more than you are, but suggesting someone with a valid point is FF is mudslinging and insulting imho

all you have proven here is that if someone disagrees with your viewpoint they must be a FF, builder etc - frankly it doesn't warrant much more comment than that

MaceFace

SkepticOne wrote: »

Here's a graph of house prices adjusted for inflation over the last 40 years.



I don't think we're returning to pre-crash levels any time soon.

This graph is probably the best posting there is on it as it shows quite easily the problem that exists.
It makes NO difference if the average house price goes back up to 2007 prices with inflation - because everything else will go up as well (including wages).

The only way the prices could go back up is if we enter another bubble where people decide to get a loan of as much money as they possibly can and put it into property.
After the debacle of the last decade, I don't think that it will happen for another 50 years.

BluePlanet

Roll on 1994 prices!

fuelinjection

BluePlanet wrote: »

Roll on 1994 prices!

Roll on 1974 prices.
And 1974 hot Irish women. In minishirts with long hair.

ei.sdraob

fuelinjection wrote: »

Roll on 1974 prices.
And 1974 hot Irish women. In minishirts with long hair.

minishirts :eek:

fontanalis

woodseb wrote: »

japan is one scenario no doubt - you can lean towards that all you like but it doesn't disprove any opinion that property prices may trend upward again along with economic growth and inflation which has been the norm in many western economies

But what internal economy has Ireland got? At least Japan has some big name companies; Nokia, Toyota, Honda etc
During the bubble the economy followed the property market not the other way around. I'm very pessimistic about the future, way too much debt to be offloaded imho. People on the bottom rungs of the "proprty ladder" are trapped, there's no way in hell some of those places will ever be sold.