RSA Chase

Colonel Sanders

What are people's opinions on this race? I started a thread as I want to oppose the front 3 in the market for the following reasons:

Punchestowns: He could well be the best horse in the race but I'm not sure he's a stout enough stayer for this race. Has only run twice over fences and has jumped adequately but not amazingly. My gut feel is he'll prove better over slightly shorter. And I realise most people will probably disagree with me also!!

Long Run: Great performance in the Feltham but 5 year olds have a horrible record in this. Star De Mohaison won this as a 5 year old but that was a poor renewal and most of the leading fancies failed to finish that year. Add in the fact he'll be carrying the equine ankle weight that is Sam Waley Cohen and he's a certain no bet for me

Diamond Harry: Needs to brush up on his jumping from that last day and also lacks experience. Trainer hasn't sounded too confident and seems to regret not going over fences at the start of the season

So who to back?

While not the classiest in the field I really like Weird Al. The classiest horse doesn't always win this, often its the horse who is most suited by a severe stamina and jumping test. Of course sometimes that is also the classiest horse to, e.g. Denman & Coldine. He's won twice around the course and proved he stays last time out when beating Knockara Beau off levels weights. He's trained by an unfashionable trainer and if Nicholls had a horse with this profile you know he'd be challenging for at least a place in the top 3 in the betting. Possibly more of a place only bet in case he's not good enough on the day to win

prettyboy81

I'm leading towards Diamond Harry myself, just like the look of him so far this season....should be a fascinating race, Nicky Henderson raving about his two chances on the racing post website....."best chasers I've trained"

RichieLawlor

I personally think Punchestowns is next years Gold Cup winner and i reckon he will beat this lot doing handstands. Oozes class and the way he picked himself up off the ground to win at Sandown was really impressive

mdwexford

All 3 have big engines but jumping frailties.
Ive a feeling one of them will put a foot perfect round together and sail home easily, not sure which one yet though.

I see where you are coming from with Wierd Al alright though.

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

All 3 have big engines but jumping frailties.
Ive a feeling one of them will put a foot perfect round together and sail home easily, not sure which one yet though.

I see where you are coming from with Wierd Al alright though.

To be honest of course it wouldn't be a surprise if one of the front 3 won. Just with question marks over all 3 (IMO of course) I'm desperate to take them on!

deewhy

In the main this is a race for 7 or 8 year olds and it would be some achievement for Long Run. No pun intended but this race has a record of breaking up and coming horses so you might have to worry about him in the long run! Looking outside top 3 and Irish angle, I will always respect Willie's horses and if Mickael runs - he will be ready. Weapons Amnesty has got to be respected - course and distance factor. Fun bet if runs - Chasing Cars - JH has a good record with placing outsiders - last year Horner Woods!

krustydoyle

deewhy wrote: »

In the main this is a race for 7 or 8 year olds and it would be some achievement for Long Run. No pun intended but this race has a record of breaking up and coming horses so you might have to worry about him in the long run! Looking outside top 3 and Irish angle, I will always respect Willie's horses and if Mickael runs - he will be ready. Weapons Amnesty has got to be respected - course and distance factor. Fun bet if runs - Chasing Cars - JH has a good record with placing outsiders - last year Horner Woods!

Has a MASSIVE EW CHANCE...IF RUNS +1:pac:

radharc

I really like Weapons Amnesty for this one, the thing about the RSA is you needs an abundance of stamina, less important you need to be a decent jmumper (remember rule supreme!) and lastly comes class imo. All his races this year he's been only getting going at the finish and he's crying out for an extended trip. Add in the course form and I think he's a great price

Diggy78

Have backed Pandorama at good prices ante post. Still reckon he has a pretty decent shout as I'd agree with Radharc regarding the emphasis being on stout stayers in this race. Really wish I'd backed it each way though as I'm worried about Punchestowns mainly and Weird Al also. Punchestowns obviously wont get away with a similar mistake in this class of race as he made last time but has probably learned from that. Cant see myself having another bet in the race, but of course that might well change with Paddy's day drinks on board!

deewhy

Highly unlikely that Pandorama will run - he has suffered a setback. Quote from ATR site:

Meade also confirmed that his RSA Chase hope Pandorama is unlikely to make the Cheltenham Festival due to a recent setback but Champion Hurdle fancy Go Native remains in great heart.
He added: "I'd say it's highly unlikely Pandorama will make it, it's a shame but hopefully there'll be other days for him.
"Go Native is great, though, and we can't wait for the race."

Hope you had NRNB

Diggy78

deewhy wrote: »

Highly unlikely that Pandorama will run - he has suffered a setback. Quote from ATR site:

Meade also confirmed that his RSA Chase hope Pandorama is unlikely to make the Cheltenham Festival due to a recent setback but Champion Hurdle fancy Go Native remains in great heart.
He added: "I'd say it's highly unlikely Pandorama will make it, it's a shame but hopefully there'll be other days for him.
"Go Native is great, though, and we can't wait for the race."

Hope you had NRNB

Cheers, I suppose. Crap, will have to have another bet now. Wasn't nrnb so that's my first loser of the festival. Cant believe I hadn't heard that. Cheers for the quote though, at least the Go Native bit took a bit of the sting out of it, .

Whyno

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I personally think Punchestowns is next years Gold Cup winner and i reckon he will beat this lot doing handstands. Oozes class and the way he picked himself up off the ground to win at Sandown was really impressive

I was really leaning towards this for ages richie but i just looked at the felltham and the two mile race long run won and i think this fellow is an absolute machine. Not denying punchestowns undoubted ability but i can see so much of Kauto Star in Long run its freaky.
Role on the race and i`ll prob end up hedging my bets but up until this evening iwas planning on having my biggest bet of the meeting on Long Run and he will be a big price due to the monkey on his back and the fact that 5 year olds have such a poor record in the race but i just think this fellow is truly special.
If star de mohason hadnt have got injured could have been anything as he destroyed his field the year he won the RSA.

Morgans

Long Run for me as well. Having had a quick perusal of the records, only three five year olds have lost in the Sun Alliance Chase in the past decade. I would think that this is the best record in terms of age in the race.

Pomme Tiepy fell in Alberta's Run race
Turko was unplaced in Denman's race (not sure that any 5yo in history could have won)
Jimmy Tennis was pulled up in Hussard Collonges race.

If the 5yo is good enough he will win. Had the Feltham won 5 out. And Tazbar franked the form subsequently. Punchestowns is high class and could take some beating. Long Run does look one to keep on the right side of until beaten.

Colonel Sanders

Age trends are one of the few I take ultra seriously

- only 2 six year olds have won since 1978 (any inference that you can draw against 6 year olds being too immature for this kind of test can obviously be applied to 5 year olds)
- Star De Mohaison won as a 5yo but was getting a 10lb allowance that is now 2lbs. Also 5 of the first 6 in the betting failed to complete that year
- The only 2 6 year olds to win since 1978 were Young Hustler & Florida Pearl who both won in relatively small fields (8 and 10 runners respectively)
- Young Hustler had vast experience over fences (had ran more than 10 times over fences) and in his year Barton Bank pulled up & the only other horses to start single figure prices both didn't complete either
- Florida Pearl was a top notcher alright but the 1998 race was a very poor race
- yet again no 6 year old placed last year (although Carruthers finished 4th)

Add in the obvious worry about the jockey and the horses unorthodox jumping style and I won't be touching it with a barge pole. Will not surprise me if he turns out to be a super star long term but for me this year, not with counterfeit

Diggy78

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

not with counterfeit

Ah come on, .

Colonel Sanders

Diggy78 wrote: »

Ah come on, .

well maybe..., as long as I didn't get counterfeit back when collecting:D

Morgans

It seems that you have come up with reasons to suit your conclusions with regard to Florida Pearl, Young Hustler and Star de Mohaison bucking the trend - small field, experience, horses that completed are all factors. The facts are that when the horse was good enough, age didnt stop them.

1/4 5yos have won the race in the past 10 years = 25% success rate

Do 7yos have a better record than that, I'd doubt it.

Where the horse was good enough, he wins. It wasnt the fact that they were in small fields that allowed Florida Pearl or Young Hustler to win. Florida Pearl won because he was the best horse in the field on the day, as did Young Hustler.

The stats can only be seen to be useful if they show that the 5yos or 6yos ran above or below their marks/assumed chances in the market. As it stands, any trainer running a 150/1 5yo in the race skews your stats. Horner Woods didnt finish ahead of Carruthers last year because he was 7, it was becuase Carruthers set a scorching pace, tried to go with Cooldine and made a hash of the third last. The age stats simply dont show this. Over the long term, form rather than stats have proven to be the best guide.

Morgans

You say that Young Hustler is an exception as he had plenty of chasing experience. Long Run will have his 7th chase at Cheltenham. The thing about stats (and I know you are concentrating on the age one) is that there is a stat out there that means every horse cant win the race. No winner in the last ten years won the Sun Alliance on its third chase run in Britain - which would rule out the top three in the betting.

5yos didnt win the QM until Master Minded came along, 8yos didnt win the Supreme before Like A Butterfly.

mdwexford

Morgans wrote: »

1/4 5yos have won the race in the past 10 years = 25% success rate

Do 7yos have a better record than that, I'd doubt it.

Comparing the two is pointless because the sample size for 7yo is 100 times bigger so they obviously will have a worse record.

Long Run being 5 wouldnt put me off though, his jumping and jockey might though, still very undecided on this race and probably will be right to post time.

Morgans

mdwexford wrote: »

Comparing the two is pointless because the sample size for 7yo is 100 times bigger so they obviously will have a worse record.

Long Run being 5 wouldnt put me off though, his jumping and jockey might though, still very undecided on this race and probably will be right to post time.

Absolutely, that is the point though. The fact that only one 5yo has won the race hides the fact that only 4 5yos have ran in the race since 1999. (It could be far longer, but don't have the time to check.) Its disingenuous.

If Long Run pulls up lame after a fence/falls at the first/is beaten by a short head after a mistake at the last/falls when 25l clear at the last, it will be used as proof next year why a 5yo cant win a Sun Alliance Chase. Depsite the fact that it didnt stop Star de Mohaison from winning.

As Johnny Giles would say, each race on its merit. He might not win, its long odds on that he wont, but as you suggest it will be because he isnt the best horse on the day. It wont be because he is 5.

Before Alberta's Run, any horse that ran in the Reynoldstown couldnt win the Sun Alliance. Before Rule Supreme and Trabolgan any horse than ran in the Feltham could win the Sun Alliance etc. Form is still the best gauge.

mdwexford

Yes of course, i concur.

RichieLawlor

The thing that swung it for me between the 2 NJH horses was the mainly jockeys, BJG is a top class big race jockey ( his ride on punchestowns at sandown was awesome after the mistake, granted he was by far the best horse) Theres probably not much between the horses but I couldn't watch the race knowing I was relying on SWC to get the horse round.

Add in course form and I'm really happy to play Punchestowns

Colonel Sanders

of course trends are there to be broken. However I feel this age stat is backed up with logic. Young horses have poor records in a number of staying chases. One of the reasons I think this makes sense is you can argue they haven't the maturity or experience for such a brutal test so early in their career. Stats like supreme winners not following up the next year in the champion hurdle wouldn't put me off Go Native as I don't feel there's too much logic to the stat. Young Hustler won an RSA when all other horses started at single figure odds failed to finish. There were other mitigating circumstances to ignore SDM for the purposes of trends IMO. Florida Pearl is the only real trends buster if you ask me, but I don't think anyone will disagree it was a weak renewal. Of course this year the entire field bar Long Run may fail to finish but that won't stop his backers collecting. I'm just saying in a race like the RSA I prefer to have an older, more mature horse on my side. I'm repeating myself now but adding in the jockey who'll be on board and I'll be looking elsewhere.

Colonel Sanders

To summarisd what I'm trying to say is, can a 5yo win the RSA? Of course. Are there enough reasons (IMO of course) to oppose 5yo runners based on past trends only receiving 2lbs? IMO yes. Is there a reason to oppose Long Run based on his jumping and the man on board? Absolutely. Is Long Run a better horse than the likes of Weird Al? Almost certainly. Will the conditions of the RSA suit LR or WA? WA IMO

Morgans

That's fine Colonel Sanders. I do know that there is a stats based view of things and some people hold their importance higher than others, that's fine. I just think that some people (not you neccessarily) treat them as short-cuts through form.

As far back as 1988, backing 5yo's blind in the Sun Alliance Chase would have you well in profit. Again, probably the only group where this stands. Not that it matters. But no 5yo lost because they were 5, they lost because they werent good enough. (Turko, Pomme Tiepy, Jimmy Tennis, Fulip looking back at the races now wouldnt be seen to be good enough) And if Long Run loses, it could be because of his jockey, his jumping etc. Banjo is arguably the only five year old to run inexplicably below expectations in the Sun Alliance.

As for Florida Pearl's race being a weak renewal. The runner-up, the 6yo Escartifigue won the Martell Cup (the open 3m at Aintree the following month) It was probably the key factor behind some believing (incorrectly) thinking Florida Pearl to be the next Arkle. I think there were many far far weaker renewals.

Colonel Sanders

Problem with Punchestowns? Has drifted to huge prices on Betfair & Long Run was well backed this morning

qzy

Punchestowns reported to be coughing this morning

mdwexford

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Problem with Punchestowns? Has drifted to huge prices on Betfair & Long Run was well backed this morning

At the Waterford preview last night they all said Long Run is the next Arkle basically, Mick Fitz said Henderson talks about him like no other horse ever, Nick Luck said he'll win by about 15 lengths.

Best price 9/2 last night when i was going to bed, bang 3/1 best price this morning.

premierstone

mdwexford wrote: »

At the Waterford preview last night they all said Long Run is the next Arkle basically, Mick Fitz said Henderson talks about him like no other horse ever, Nick Luck said he'll win by about 15 lengths.

Best price 9/2 last night when i was going to bed, bang 3/1 best price this morning.

He's jumping, age and jockey are all concerns, for me 3/1 is way too short, but connections do seem to think he is a machine.

mdwexford

All 3 at the head of the market havent impressed with their jumping and the other 2 have looked more likely to fall.

Age means nothing imo, if hes good enough he wins.

People are making to much of a big deal over the jockey i think, obviously id rather a Ruby or BG but hes decent enough.

premierstone

mdwexford wrote: »

All 3 at the head of the market havent impressed with their jumping and the other 2 have looked more likely to fall.

Age means nothing imo, if hes good enough he wins.

People are making to much of a big deal over the jockey i think, obviously id rather a Ruby or BG but hes decent enough.

Agree with you that all 3 have question marks over their jumping.That why I think Weapon Amnesty e/w at 12/1 is a much better proposition.

Age is important imo, the RSA is a very demanding race and it maybe too much for a 5 year old, hence most trainers dont even consider entering them.

And Im sorry but Sam Waley Cohen is without question a negative for Long Run backers, he is no where near a top level jockey.

mdwexford

I think hes far too slow and just not good enough.

This one looks really special though and he has plenty of chasing experience from France (6 runs) and has probably been schooling over fences for years so id be less worried than a normal Irish bred horse with 2 or 3 runs over fences.

Im not saying its ideal but hes rode over the National fences several times and has experience, its a negative to not have a top drawer jockey but he is competent imo.

Colonel Sanders

Punchestowns Lame

Colonel Sanders

All change in the RSA betting

While Punchestowns is still there Long Run seems to be priced up as if Punchestowns won't run as now way is he a 5/2 shot with him in the race

I had a small each way on Weird Al when I noticed the drift. 10/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes

Colonel Sanders

Looking at the Betfair market this race could really cut up, a feeling I've had for a while now

Could easily be a single figure field and this is an advantage for Long Run IMO. He won't get crowded at his fences and they might not go off at a frenetic pace

listentotheroar

any more news on Pandorama..anyone with any links to meades yard?i know hes a MAJOR doubt but he really is an exciting horse(and my biggest AP bet for the festival this year)

bit of a bogey

listentotheroar wrote: »

any more news on Pandorama..anyone with any links to meades yard?i know hes a MAJOR doubt but he really is an exciting horse(and my biggest AP bet for the festival this year)

Cant see him going unless we get unexpected torrential rain!

deewhy

Punchestowns lame, Binocular has muscle problem - yet no surprise if both will end up running. Sounds like Henderson is nailing his colours to the mast with his other fancied runners and lining up the excuse. Either that or he is playing the bookies and pulling the P out of the punters.

Colonel Sanders

Punchestowns 5.1 to back, 5.6 to lay on Betfair

IMO you'd be FAR better taking some 4/1 NRNB

deewhy

From ATR site:

Uimhiraceathair has been ruled out of next week's RSA Chase at Cheltenham after suffering a setback.
The eight-year-old was due to defend an unbeaten record over fences, having registered successes at Gowran and Navan, and had been as short as 10-1 for the Festival after impressing in a gallop at Leopardstown last month.
However, champion trainer Willie Mullins has confirmed his charge will not be heading to Prestbury Park.
The County Carlow handler said: "He's lame and he's not going to Cheltenham."

Colonel Sanders

Weird Al a non runner now, thank **** I'm on NRNB

May well sit this race out now

cson

For all Long Run's promise, Feltham winners have a poor record in this race and I just can't be having him at that price. Granted he may well be cut from a different cloth and end up being a top top drawer animal but I'd rather see how he does in the RSA. I'm on Punchestowns for this; I do think he's value at the moment.

Colonel Sanders

cson wrote: »

For all Long Run's promise, Feltham winners have a poor record in this race and I just can't be having him at that price. Granted he may well be cut from a different cloth and end up being a top top drawer animal but I'd rather see how he does in the RSA. I'm on Punchestowns for this; I do think he's value at the moment.

If Long Run wins this he's an absolute machine, and possibly the successor to Kauto Star

However at the prices I just can't back him. My OP showed why I wanted to oppose the front 3 and while Weapons Amnesty has a festival win under his belt I'm not of the opinion that good ground will suit him more than good/soft, but he was stuffed at Aintree on that kind of ground. Could have been OTT I suppose

This race screams 'No Bet' to me at this stage

cson

Your reason for opposing Punchestowns I wouldn't agree with. I think he'll stay it. Now I know it's chalk and cheese comparing hurdle races to chases but he did get within a couple of lengths of Big Bucks last year and it's still a 3m trip over the course.

Colonel Sanders

I'd back Punchestowns over Long Run but still don't think he's as strong a stayer as everyone thinks he is

Big Bucks was twice off the bit a long time before Punchestowns last year but stayed on past him. I don't buy the '17 lengths back to the third horse' argument in the stayers as that horse was Powerstation! An admirable animal who almost always runs well on the big day but is most certainly not an absolute top notcher

I took a chance on Weird Al as I though he ticked a lot of the boxes past winners have fitted into, had won twice over the course, had proved his stamina for 3m+, jumps like a stag and with only 6 career starts could still improve no end. Unfortunately he won't get his chance next week

At the minute its obviously odds on that one of the front 3 will win but I'll probably be sitting this one out

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

What are people's opinions on this race? I started a thread as I want to oppose the front 3 in the market for the following reasons:

Punchestowns: He could well be the best horse in the race but I'm not sure he's a stout enough stayer for this race. Has only run twice over fences and has jumped adequately but not amazingly. My gut feel is he'll prove better over slightly shorter. And I realise most people will probably disagree with me also!!

Long Run: Great performance in the Feltham but 5 year olds have a horrible record in this. Star De Mohaison won this as a 5 year old but that was a poor renewal and most of the leading fancies failed to finish that year. Add in the fact he'll be carrying the equine ankle weight that is Sam Waley Cohen and he's a certain no bet for me

Diamond Harry: Needs to brush up on his jumping from that last day and also lacks experience. Trainer hasn't sounded too confident and seems to regret not going over fences at the start of the season

So who to back?

While not the classiest in the field I really like Weird Al. The classiest horse doesn't always win this, often its the horse who is most suited by a severe stamina and jumping test. Of course sometimes that is also the classiest horse to, e.g. Denman & Coldine. He's won twice around the course and proved he stays last time out when beating Knockara Beau off levels weights. He's trained by an unfashionable trainer and if Nicholls had a horse with this profile you know he'd be challenging for at least a place in the top 3 in the betting. Possibly more of a place only bet in case he's not good enough on the day to win

I backed Weird Al NRNB and didn't have a bet when he came out

Shame as I though the front 3 were full of holes at the prices

Morgans

Long Run didnt stay. King George next year rather than Gold Cup. Byrnes is some trainer. A gangster but some trainer. How did he managed to get odds against this horse that day they gambled him off the boards up at Ayr.

Juwwi

weapons amnesty jumped great all the way around

once again proven course form and good jumping wins the race

Colonel Sanders

I've often been a critic of Russell's round Cheltenham but he gave that horse a beautiful ride

Long Run paddled through a few of those fences, but as you say may not have stayed

radharc

radharc wrote: »

I really like Weapons Amnesty for this one, the thing about the RSA is you needs an abundance of stamina, less important you need to be a decent jmumper (remember rule supreme!) and lastly comes class imo. All his races this year he's been only getting going at the finish and he's crying out for an extended trip. Add in the course form and I think he's a great price

U little beauty!!

mdwexford

Shocked.