March 2010 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Welcome to the March edition of the Boards forecast contest. If the information below on the questions has you puzzled, please refer to the first post in the February thread. I am shortening the wording now, as most of our contestants are regulars.

(1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland temperature series.
(normal value is 6.1 C for 1961-90).

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland

(4) Average rainfall % of normal

(5) Average sunshine % of normal

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th.

Good luck, and as I say, check the more detailed wording in February if you're not familiar with the contest, the same questions were asked there except for the bonus.

If you want to save bandwidth and make this even easier for me, just enter this template in numerical form:

(MEAN,MAX,MIN,RAIN,SUN,DUB17MAX) -- not required if you prefer the usual method.

Whoops, forgot the deadline for entries ... as usual, end of the day, Monday 1 March. Penalties apply to entries on Tues 2 March, no entries allowed after end of that date (sound familiar?).

200motels

1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland thread
(normal value is 6.1 C for 1961-90). 5.9C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 15.5C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -5.4C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 123%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 85%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 11.4C

TheInquisitor

1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland thread
(normal value is 6.1 C for 1961-90). 5C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 12C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -8.6C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 111%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 93%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 8C

And how about i make it easier for mt aswell

(5C,12C,-8.6C,111%,93%,8C)

M.T. Cranium

Early entry from me,

(5.8, 16.0, -5.5, 90%, 120%, 7.7)

Deep Easterly

Seems that whatever I forecast, the opposite will happen, so I am going for a cold March, simply because I want a warm one!

Central Ireland thread
(normal value is 6.1 C for 1961-90). 5.2C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 11.9c

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -4.3c

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 189%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 92%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 5.2c

nacho libre

interesting strategy paddy1. i want a Cold March so i will predict a mild one:pac:

but seriously i have a feeling the jet stream will be making its long awaited return by the early days of next month.

Central Ireland thread
(normal value is 6.1 C for 1961-90). 5.8C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 15.1c

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -2.3c

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 160%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 65%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 10.1

thetonynator

I've never entered this before, so sorry if i'm stepping on anyones toes by doing so. . .

1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland temperature series. = 6.5 C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland = 18.5C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland = -3.0C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal = 145%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal = 73%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. = 9.5C

(1) Mean temp C for the month: 5.6c

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland: 13.5c

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland: -3.2c

(4) Average rainfall % of normal: 107%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal: 94%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th: 8.4c

jd

(6.0,15.7,-4.2,123,89,11.5)

John mac

(6.9,18,-4.2,114,106,16.2)

Lumi

1) Mean temp C for the month = 5.1C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland = 13.8C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland = -4.3C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal = 77%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal = 98%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. = 8.2C

talkabout

1) Mean temp C for the month = 5.8C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland = 14.1C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland = -3.9C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal = 92%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal = 103%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. = 12.2C

dasa29

(1) Mean temp C for the month 5.3C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 12.5C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -4.0C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 95%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 95%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 15.0C

Redsunset

1) Mean temp C 4.8C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 14C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -7.5

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 110%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 150%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 10.5C

jdburkedjburke

MEAN,5.7
MAX,13
MIN,-5
RAIN,95%
SUN,110%
DUB17MAX7.8

Strasser

5.0,16.5,-5.5,95,108,10.5

Popoutman

1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland thread
(normal value is 6.1 C for 1961-90). 7.4C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 14C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -5.5C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 94%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 110%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 11C

And for M.T. as well...

(7.4,14,-5.5,94,110,11)

Joe Public

I'm basing it on astrology this time, we have 9 planets. Not sure if Ken would support this attack

(3.9, 13.9, -5.9, 89, 139, 8.9)

cherryghost

(1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland thread
5.9

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 13.3

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -4.5C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 130%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 82%

Su Campu

1) 6.0°C
2) 17.9°C
3) -4.2°C
4) 113%
5) 105%

Bonus 12.2°C

kindredspirit

1) Mean temp. 5.2°C.

2) Max temp. 14.8°C.

3) Min temp. -4.8°C.

4) Av. rainfall. 95%.

5) Av. sunshine. 115%.

6) Max Dublin Aeropuerto, 17th. 11.0°C.

nilhg

(1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland temperature series. 5.8C


(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 14.9C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -6.2C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 99%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 102%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 11.2C

DOCARCH

1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland temperature series. 5.1c

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland. 17.8c

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland. -6.8c

(4) Average rainfall % of normal. 95%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal. 105%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 12.6c

Speak Now

(6.1, 14.0, -5.5, 75, 140, 9.0)

thetonynator

thetonynator wrote: »

I've never entered this before, so sorry if i'm stepping on anyones toes by doing so. . .

1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland temperature series. = 6.5 C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland = 18.5C

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland = -3.0C

(4) Average rainfall % of normal = 145%

(5) Average sunshine % of normal = 73%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. = 9.5C

I got permission from M.T. Cranium to change my entry . . .to make it more realistic. The edit button isnt working so sorry to be awkward and do it this way . . .


(5.8, 14.5, -6.0, 90%, 120%, 9.5)

SeaFields

1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland temperature series. 7.9c

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland. 19.5

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland. -3.0

(4) Average rainfall % of normal. 120

(5) Average sunshine % of normal. 100%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 17

Danno

Mean 6.0c
Max 16.6c
Min -6.3c
Rainfall 70%
Sunshine 135%
Dublin A 9.6c

nacho libre

if it's okay with M.T.

I'd also like to change my entry. Sorry to have to do it this way but the edit button isn't working for me either.

Central Ireland thread
(normal value is 6.1 C for 1961-90). 5.7C

(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland 15.8c

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland -5.3

(4) Average rainfall % of normal 85 %

(5) Average sunshine % of normal 130 %

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 10.4

M.T. Cranium

Yep, just to confirm, I thought the edit button worked in this thread. Apparently it doesn't, at least not for everyone. But people have always had the right (guaranteed in the MTC constitution) to amend their forecasts before the deadline, which is now 25 minutes away.

Then I make a list and wait 24 hours, check the late forecasts and late edits, and if you make a late edit, you have made basically a late forecast.

Late forecasts are subject to the rather mild penalty of 10% of points over sixty, so as not to bring score below sixty.

Them be the rules, so forecast as often as you wish.

Just a reminder, if you read this on Tuesday 2 March, you have time to submit an entry and unless you figure on cracking sixty (which is not that easy to do) it won't cost you any points. But at midnight (2359.99h Tuesday) all hope is lost and even a perfect forecast is worth nothing.

Harsh, but my rules are more lenient than most forecast comps. This is because I know a lot of people forget until they see the calendar change months, and realistically, nothing much different is known on the first than was known the day before.

Rebelbrowser

1) Mean temp C for the month from DE's Central Ireland temperature series. 6.2
(2) Highest temp C anywhere in Ireland. 15.2

(3) Lowest temp C anywhere in Ireland. -8.2

(4) Average rainfall % of normal. 96

(5) Average sunshine % of normal. 112%

(6) Bonus -- maximum (C) at Dublin A on the 17th. 10

M.T. Cranium

Entries for March ...

Forecaster .... Mean ..... Max ...... Min ......Rain% ... Sun% .... Dub17th

SeaFields ......... 7.9 ..... 19.5 ..... -3.0 ..... 120 ..... 100 ...... 17.0
Popoutman ....... 7.4 ..... 14.0 ..... -5.5 ..... 094 ..... 110 ...... 11.0
John mac ......... 6.9 ..... 18.0 ..... -4.2 ..... 114 ..... 106 ...... 16.2
*Rebelbrowser .. 6.2 ..... 15.2 ..... -8.2 ..... 096 ..... 112 ...... 10.0
Jerry Seinfeld ....6.1 ..... 14.0 ..... -5.5 ..... 075 ..... 140 ....... 9.0
Danno ............. 6.0 ..... 16.6 ..... -6.3 ..... 070 ..... 135 ....... 9.6
jd ................... 6.0 ..... 15.7 ..... -4.2 ..... 123 ..... 089 ...... 11.5
Su Campu ........ 6.0 ..... 17.9 ..... -4.2 ..... 113 ..... 105 ...... 12.2
cherryghost ..... 5.9 ..... 13.3 ..... -4.5 ..... 130 ...... 082 .......pass
200motels ........ 5.9 ..... 15.5 ..... -5.4 ..... 123 ..... 085 ...... 11.4
M.T. Cranium .... 5.8 ..... 16.0 ..... -5.5 ..... 090 ..... 120 ....... 7.7
talkabout ......... 5.8 ..... 14.1 ..... -3.9 ..... 092 ..... 103 ...... 12.2
nilhg ............... 5.8 ..... 14.9 ..... -6.2 ..... 099 ..... 102 ..... 11.2

Con Sensus ..... 5.8 ..... 14.7 ..... -5.3 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 10.5

thetonynator .... 5.8 ..... 14.5 ..... -6.0 ..... 090 ..... 120 ...... 9.5
nacho libre ....... 5.7 ..... 15.8 ..... -5.3 ..... 085 ..... 130 ...... 10.4
jdburkedjburke .. 5.7 ..... 13.0 ..... -5.0 ..... 095 ..... 110 ....... 7.8
hellboy99 ......... 5.6 ..... 13.5 ..... -3.2 ..... 107 ..... 094 ...... 8.4
dasa29 ............ 5.3 ..... 12.5 ..... -4.0 ..... 095 ..... 095 ...... 15.0
Deep Easterly ... 5.2 ..... 11.9 ..... -4.3 ..... 189 ..... 092 ...... 5.2
kindredspirit ...... 5.2 ..... 14.8 ..... -4.8 ..... 095 .... 115 ...... 11.0
DOCARCH ......... 5.1 ..... 17.8 ..... -6.8 ..... 095 .... 105 ...... 12.6
Fionagus .......... 5.1 ..... 13.8 ..... -4.3 ..... 077 .... 098 ...... 8.2
TheInquisitor .... 5.0 ..... 12.0 ..... -8.6 ..... 111 ..... 093 ....... 8.0
Strasser .......... 5.0 ..... 16.5 ..... -5.5 ..... 095 ..... 108 ...... 10.5
redsunset ........ 4.8 ..... 14.0 ..... -7.5 ..... 110 ..... 150 ...... 10.5
Joe Public ........ 3.9 ..... 13.9 ..... -5.9 ..... 089 ..... 139 ....... 8.9

* means late entry

Looks like the consensus forecast calls for a somewhat cooler than average month with a slight increase in sunshine over normal. Given how the first seven days appear on the models, that translates to a near normal period after the 7th.

Entries are now closed.

Deep Easterly

Daily data page not updating on the met eireann site this morning so all figures are up the midnight 5th rather than up to midnight last.

March mean temp of our 5 met stations up to the 5th standing at 2.8c, which is 3.3c below the 61-90 normal, so the opening days of March holding onto the cool temps of the preceding winter months.


Update on the annual mean temp trend:



Despite a very slight rise in the annual mean over the last week, we are no where near normal yet. This time last year, the annual mean of our 5 met stations was standing at 4.68c, which was close to the 61-90 normal. This year's figure of 2.22c is still over 2.0c below the norm. The coming 7 days should push up this figure though, but by how much?

Tune in next week to this gripping saga to find out! :pac::P


A brief look at daily max temp averages from the now ceased Birr synoptic station for March:



This data from Birr is a good guide as to what to expect, give or take a couple of decimals, on a daily basis regarding daily maxima during March (data based on the 61-90 average), at any of the 5 met stations used in the competition analysis.

The above chart is interesting. It shows nicely that while there is an obvious upwards trend in mean max temps during March, the rise is not linear, with many ups and downs during the middle section of the month before we see a more sharp upwards trend toward the final few days.

Here are a few stats from that legendary met eireann weather station regarding mean maximum temps during March (based within 61-90 period)

Highest March Daily Max Temperature: 19.7c on the 28th March 1965.
Lowest March Daily Max Temperature: 1.9c on the 1st March 1965

Highest March Mean Monthly Max: 12.3c (+2.5c) in 1961
Lowest March Mean Monthly Max: 8.0c (-1.8c) in 1962



All data c/o Met Eireann

M.T. Cranium

Here's a progress report for the first seven days of the month:

mean temp (five stations) 2.9 C

rainfall (all Ireland) 20% of normal

sunshine (all Ireland) 196% of normal

We can assume that these will all converge on normal values to some extent ... but all three will be challenged to change their current anomaly sign (at some point, sunshine cannot in any case).

To reach a totally average outcome, and assuming that similar conditions to 1-7 March prevail through the 10th, the last two-thirds of the month will need to average about 2 degrees above normal, 40% above normal rainfall, and less than half the usual daily sunshine, just to get to normal for the month.

It was interesting to note in DE's post that the coldest and warmest March day at Birr were recorded in the same month (1965) -- could this be a similar pattern? What was the coldest minimum in that period?

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

It was interesting to note in DE's post that the coldest and warmest March day at Birr were recorded in the same month (1965) -- could this be a similar pattern? What was the coldest minimum in that period?

Yes, March 1965 was noted for its wild extremes across both Ireland and the UK. Very cold start to very warm finish.

A couple of stats regarding mean min figures recorded at Birr within the 61-90 time series during the month of March:

Lowest March mean min: 0.0c (1962)
Highest March mean min: 5.5c (1990)

Lowest daily min temp: -10.5c :eek: (2nd March 1965)
Highest daily min temp: 10.9c (11th March 1981)

Deep Easterly

Just to put extremes of March 1965 into a little more detail.

Chart graphing daily max/min during that month at Birr:



Low of -10.5c at the start of the month, rising to 19.7c in the last week. That is a diurnal range of 30c throughout the entire month! :eek:

Chart for the 2nd March 1965, the date when -10.5c was recorded at Birr:



a direct Arctic feed. I reckon there must have been some snow cover involved in this as well.

Chart for 28th March 1965, the date when 19.7c was reached:



a moist, stable SSW flow over Ireland. Probably would have brought a lot of low cloud in general but where breaks occurred, temps would have shot up, as it obviously did at Birr!

Deep Easterly

According to the NCEP, the 365 day period up to the 6th March 2010, temp anomalies are now tending towards near average across Ireland:

Sample:



Claremorris mean departure figure at +0.04c.

other values include Mullingar: -0.18c / Shannon Apt: -0.25c / Dublin Apt: -0.48c / Valentia +0.17c / Belfast Aldergrove: +0.38c.

I would say it is a very, very long time since those figures were achieved!

M.T. Cranium

Lowest for the month at least -7.3 C, the min reported for Dublin on Monday the 8th, and Gurteen currently at -7 C at 0600h 9th.

For that month of March 1965, I recall it being quite cold in the Great Lakes region where I was then living (and recording the weather as a high school student) ... there was a period of somewhat mild easterly flow when you were having that cold spell, then the rest of the month was colder than average by about 3-4 F deg, with snow at times and almost no rain.

Seems like raging zonality was not a big problem in the spring of 1965.

M.T. Cranium

Edit the above to read -7.7 C (Ballyhaise) as being at least the lowest seen by me, perhaps I missed something lower.

After ten days, the sunshine now stands at well over 200% since 4-10 has averaged 258% of normal. Rainfall has dropped slightly to about 15% of normal. It continues to run about 3 degrees below normal. These are probably extremes that will now be starting points on a slow trek towards more normal values ... but they may leave an imprint on the monthly final values, we shall see.

Danno

Wait till the raging Northwesterlies kick in with snow showers in the second last week of the month - some thunder showers too. Then more HP and milder for month's end.

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight last (the 13th), the March combined mean temp of our 5 centrally located met eireann stations is standing at 3.2c, which is around 2.5c below the normal for the period. This figure is expected to rise, significantly, over the next 7 days.

Chart showing mean min temps for the month so far for the 5 met stations used in the competition:



The mean rainfall total of the 5 met stations for this month is currently standing at a shocking 4.2mm, which is just around 12% of what would be normally received in the first 13 day of the month! and interestingly, all of that rain fell in Shannon Airport and Claremorris, with the other 3 met stations used in our analysis recording no rainfall at all this month so far :eek:


On to the annual mean update, and at last, the mean for this year is beginning to show signs of rising a little. Here is how it looks on the graph up to the 13th:



Current values at 2.35c, which is still 2.6c cooler than at this point last year. Up to the 13th March 2009, the value stood at exactly 5.00c, which is close to, or very marginally above, what would be expected in the 61-90 average. The following 7 days in 2009 saw a further increase in daily means, with temps reaching 16c/17c by day, contributing to a 7 day mean of 8.4c; the next 7 days this year will probably have a similar overall mean, although max temps are unlikely to be as high as what was recorded in the same period last year. Whether or not, we should start to see that almost flattened 2010 mean temp line start to buckle significantly upwards this week.

Will post up another report next week to let y'all know the shhhtory!




All data & stats c/o Met Eireann

thetonynator

Just out of interest, anyone know the highest temp recorded so far this month???

I know the final figure will be much higher but twould be nice to know . . .;)

Danno

Shannon Airport, Johnstown Castle, Dublin Airport, Claremorris and Ballyhaise all got 12c today, now these "12s" could range anywhere between 11.5c and 12.4c.

Danno

Dublin Airport got 12.5c as per http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=Irel&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2010&mes=03&day=14&hora=18&ndays=1&Send=send website. Why did the http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp report that as 12c I wonder?

Mothman

Danno wrote: »

Dublin Airport got 12.5c as per http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=Irel&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2010&mes=03&day=14&hora=18&ndays=1&Send=send website. Why did the http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp report that as 12c I wonder?

Because the temp at 1400 was 12.0C, 1500 11.8C but sometime in between hours the max of 12.5C was reached.
The hourly obs don't report the max temp.

M.T. Cranium

Just looked at the data for March 8-14, and integrating with the report on the first seven days, we have:

mean temp to date 3.3 C

Rainfall to date 11%

Sunshine to date 190%

These are apparently all about to change towards more normal values, so no need to panic yet.

It would now have to remain cloudy almost all the time to achieve any sunshine value below 100% of normal.

Joe Public

I'll have to get my crystal ball recalibrated as I was a day early with the St Patrick's day temp. It got up to around 15C in Dublin.

M.T. Cranium

The official high was listed as 14.3 C ... oddly enough there were no guesses in the 13s or the 14s from our 23 forecasters. Closest was Dasa29 at 15.0 C.

Deep Easterly

I really need a phenomenally wet rest of March to reach my guess of 189%. Current value stands at 10%!!!!. :pac:

Deep Easterly

March mean value of our 5 met eireann stations standing at 4.7c as of midnight last (the 20th). This is 1.3c below normal for the period, although this is more on the strength of the still below average minima; mean max temps for the month so far are actually hovering close to average. A further rise is expected in this value over the next 7 days.

Looking at the latest annual mean graph for the 5 stations used:



we can see that the annual mean is at last beginning to rise, although given that we are now well established into the year, it will still take a number of weeks for this value to reach near normal levels. As it stands, the current year's value is still around 2.0c below normal, while at this stage last year, the value of 5.31c was a little above the 61-90 norm for the year.

The following 7 days looks to bring around average temperatures over Ireland with any frost being confined to well sheltered inland locations with an increasing risk of rain or showers at times which will be welcome as only 31% of normal rainfall has fallen this month over the 5 met station area to date.

How it is looking for the coming midweek period:





Data & Image Sources: Met Eireann / ECMWF

M.T. Cranium

Fairly substantial changes have occurred in the monthly values over the past seven days. Following are the updated running values after the 21st with the most recent seven-day values in brackets.

Mean temp 4.9 C (8.0 C)

Rainfall to date 33% (78%)

Sunshine to date 154% (82%)

Based on the current forecast maps, I estimate the mean temp may end up close to or a little above 6.0, the rainfall could push up towards 80% (it would now take about 235% of normal in the last ten days to reach a monthly normal value), and sunshine seems likely to fall off again but should stay above 135%, even a very dull 50% in the last ten days would yield a monthly average of about 120% and no further sunshine at all would leave this value at 104%.

The highest reading I have spotted so far is 14.8 but I may have missed something a bit higher. I'm pretty sure the lowest was -7.7 or lower (one reading from Dublin was not available when I looked for it during the cold spell earlier).

I'm not too sure if anything outside those values will occur in this pattern, at least the low is probably set.

Joe Public

I'm forecasting a cold final week to hold the mean down.