Grand National Thread

Colonel Sanders

Weights out this Tuesday and the Aon thread was kinda hijacked (by me originally :rolleyes:) so starting a new thread.

Entries

Stats:

Age:
- 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or over.
- Last year the first 4 home all hailed from this age category.
- 28 6 and 7 year olds have gone to post in the last 10 years and none have placed. Tricky Trickster backers beware (altho he was a trends buster in the 4 miler at the festival last year)

Weight

with the compressing of the handicap and the fact that the race is attracting classier types each year not sure if this is masively relevant. But before Hedgehunter won in 2005 a rule of thumb was to oppose those carrying 11st plus. The first 4 home last year carried over 11st. However I still reckon those with 11st 7+ have no chance over 4m 4

Other stats

- you have to go back to 1970 for the last winner who hadn't previously won over at least 3 miles. Every year someone tells me 'a 2 and a half mile horse wins the national these days'. The facts do not back this up at all
- Irish trained horses have won 5 of the last 10 renewals
- 8 of the last 10 runners were bred in Ireland
- if you ignore last year (winner, 3rd and 5th) French breds have areasonably poor record
- keep good jumpers on your side
- recent form figures aren't the be all and end all
- only one horse that has won at the Cheltenham festival has won this since 1961
- the previous years Grand National has been a good pointer
- previous experience of the Aintree fences is a plus (7 of the last 9 winners)
- horses which race prominently have held the upper hand
- horses wearing head gear have a poor record, with Comply or Die being the first winner in a LONG time

Whyno

Hopefully War of Attrition gets a nice racing weight and if he continues in the sort of form hes in over hurdles will be my bet for the big one.
It'll be a fitting end to his wonderful career

Colonel Sanders

FWIW I have backed State of Play at big prices to pay for my summer holidays!

- Took to it well last year, jumped well apart from a mistake at beecher's 2nd time around
- rated 145 currently, the mark he won the Hennessy off
- been targeted at this since running poorly in this year's Hennessy
- Fits most of the trends apart from breeding (by a UK based, predominately flat stallion. Although Hernando's stock usually do better with time and over further)
- should get in with a maximum of 11st hopefully. If Comply or Die runs off his current mark it would leave him carrying a maximum of 11st 1. That assumes a higher rated horse than Comply or Die doesn't run (and the likes of Joe Lively and Notre Pere are also entered)
- been well supported over the last 2 weeks

Of the more classier types I will be very interested to see what mark Notre Pere gets allotted. Could possibly get a reasonably mark due to him being out of form this year and this out and out stayer would surely be at home over this kind of test

Shane732

Whyno wrote: »

Hopefully War of Attrition gets a nice racing weight and if he continues in the sort of form hes in over hurdles will be my bet for the big one.
It'll be a fitting end to his wonderful career

Yea - looks like the World Hurdle may be a good prep race this year!!

Morgans

I know the stats method of doing the Grand National is there, but I think it has been overdone completely recently. The stats can turn people off a horse without good reason. Amberleigh House couldnt win because he was 12, Mon Mome couldnt win cos he was french bred, Hedgehunter couldnt win because of the weight etc

Stats can of course help, but it is getting to the stage where it should be treated like a regular race. The biggest eye-opener for me has been the some definite stayers over 3m etc can fall in a hole over up the straight. Its definitely not a race to be dogmatic about.

I like cheltenham form for Aintree, maybe not in the same year (a lot depends on the gap) A horse that is running on strongly on a uphill finish in a fast run race always catches the eye - Sun Alliance Chase, even the old Mildmay of Flete were good guides to candidates.

I think you need to stay but I definitely dont rule out horses that tend to run in races shorter than 3m on conventional courses. They can be unexposed over extreme trips, especially if its planned that way - Papillion ran in the Queen Mother.

There is really no point in looking too much into the fancies until the weights come out - the ones at the head of market at the moment all look to have solid chances, Ballyholland is one sneaky one that I'm looking forward to seeing what he gets.

th hen

i will be putting a few yo yo's on gordon elliotts backstage. the grand national is like a lottery though in all fairness

Diggy78

Really have a fancy for Possol. Only backing it small though at the moment as he cant win according to the stats provided above, (thanks for raining on my parade there Colonel Sanders ), as he's only 7 and a French bred. Was really taken with his performance at Perth late last year. I know he only beat Ollie Magern and Faasel (both probably over the top for the year), but it was a savagely quick time for a 3 miler around Perth.

Has been kept novice hurdling for this year to protect a reasonable handicap mark of 151, has been impressive in his hurdle races over 3 miles (ish) without beating anything special but is entered in the racing post chase which is after the weights date. Anyway, 25's at the mo and might be worth a look guys.

Morgans

I like Possol and has a lot of plusses for me but one thing that always struck me about him was that he was physically a small horse. I think he might struggle over some of the fences. Definitely one (of many) with a shout though.

Diggy78

Morgans wrote: »

I like Possol and has a lot of plusses for me but one thing that always struck me about him was that he was physically a small horse. I think he might struggle over some of the fences. Definitely one (of many) with a shout though.

Never actually noticed that myself, will have another look at a few of his races. Cheers.

Colonel Sanders

I am a big fan of trends (must be the maths degreee :rolleyes:) but always analyse a trend to see if there is a logical reason for them

Some trends make sense, such as 5 year olds having a bad record in staying hurdles, 5 & 6 year olds having a bad record in staying chases. You can argue that horses this young lack the physical development and maturity to deal with tests at such a young age

Others make no apparent sense, such as the winner of the supreme novice having such a bad record in the following years champion hurdle.

Use stats as an aid, not as your main guiding principle

cson

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Others make no apparent sense, such as the winner of the supreme novice having such a bad record in the following years champion hurdle.

I've often thought the most rational explanation is that horses in the Supreme may be open to more improvement than the winner who may have ran to his/her potential.

/another thread hijack

I'll wait to see ho Black Apalachi gets on in his next spin out. He's definitely one to watch in my book.

Nulty

Abbeybraney

Ellerslie George

Morgans

Ellerslie George isnt a bad shout but his jockey around Aintree wouldn't inspire confidence in me.

I think the way the handicapper is framing the race these days, all weights based stats need to be carefully examined.

Colonel Sanders

Mouse Morris has alreay fired a warning shot to Phil Smith. Says WOA's participation depends on the weight he is allotted. Seeing as Hear The Echo got an extra stone for good luck last year it'll be interesting to see how the Irish horses are treated today.

Morgans

ALBERTAS RUN 9-11-10 Jonjo O'Neill

MADISONDU BERLAIS 9-11-10 David Pipe

NOTRE PERE 9-11-10 Jim Dreaper

TARANIS 9-11-09 Paul Nicholls

OUR VIC 12-11-08 David Pipe

MON MOME 10-11-07 VenetiaWilliams

BLACK APALACHI 11-11-06 Dessie Hughes

JOE LIVELY 11-11-06 Colin Tizzard

VIC VENTURI 10-11-06 Dessie Hughes

COMPLY OR DIE 11-11-05 David Pipe

DON'T PUSH IT 10-11-05 Jonjo O'Neill

IRISH INVADER 9-11-05 Willie Mullins

MADE IN TAIPAN 8-11-04 Tom Mullins

NICHE MARKET 9-11-04 Bob Buckler

TRICKY TRICKSTER 7-11-04 Paul Nicholls

CASEY JONES 9-11-03 Noel Meade

CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03 Donald McCain Jnr

DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03 Philip Hobbs

NOZIC 9-11-03 Paul Nicholls

POSSOL 7-11-03 Henry Daly

SIEGEMASTER 9-11-03 Dessie Hughes

MY WILL 10-11-02 Paul Nicholls

PABLO DU CHARMIL 9-11-02 David Pipe

ONE COOL COOKIE 9-11-01 Charlie Swan

WAR OF ATTRITION 11-11-01 Mouse Morris

BACKSTAGE 8-11-00 Gordon Elliott

BALLYHOLLAND 9-11-00 Colin McBratney

BEAT THE BOYS 9-11-00 Nigel Twiston-Davies

PREISTS LEAP 10-11-00 Tom O'Leary

ROULEZ COOL 7-11-00 Robert Waley-Cohen

BERONI 8-10-13 Willie Mullins

CAN'T BUY TIME 8-10-13 Jonjo O'Neill

LE BEAU BAI 7-10-13 Richard Lee

SEVEN IS MY NUMBER 8-10-13 David Pipe

SNOWY MORNING 10-10-13 Willie Mullins

AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12 Brian Walsh Charlie Mann

BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12 Paul Nicholls

DARKNESS 11-10-12 Charles Egerton

DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7-10-12 Willie Mullins

LOUPING D'AINAY 11-10-12 ancois Cottin

CHARACTERBUILDING 10-10-11 John Quinn

CHELSEAHARBOUR 10-10-11 Mullins

DOONEYS GATE 9-10-11 Willie Mullins

GONE TO LUNCH 10-10-11 Jeremy Scott

KORNATI KID 8-10-11 Philip Hobbs

STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11 Evan Williams

ELLERSLIE GEORGE 10-10-10 Nick Mitchell

FOLLOW THE PLAN 7-10-10 Oliver McKiernan

JAYO 7-10-10 Willie Mullins

ROYALCOUNTYSTAR 11-10-10 Tony Martin

BALLYFITZ 10-10-09 Nigel Twiston-Davies

CONNA CASTLE 11-10-09 Jimmy Mangan

EQUUS MAXIMUS 10-10-09 Willie Mullins

ERIC'S CHARM 12-10-09 Oliver Sherwood

KING JOHNS CASTLE 11-10-09 Arthur Moore

OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09 Nigel Twiston-Davies

ARBOR SUPREME 8-10-08 Willie Mullins

CANE BRAKE 11-10-08 Tom Taaffe

KILCREA CASTLE 8-10-08 Emma Lavelle

LENNON 10-10-08 Howard Johnson

MALJIMAR 10-10-08 Nick Williams

NEW ALCO 9-10-08 Ferdy Murphy

BIBLE LORD 9-10-07 Andy Turnell

IRISH RAPTOR 11-10-07 Nigel Twiston-Davies

MR POINTMENT 11-10-07 Paul Murphy

PARSONS PISTOL 8-10-07 Noel Meade

PIRAYA 7-10-07 David Pipe

RAZOR ROYALE 8-10-07 Nigel Twiston-Davies

THE PACKAGE 7-10-07 David Pipe

HELLO BUD 12-10-06 Nigel Twiston-Davies

IRIS DE BALME 10-10-06 Sean Curran

PALYPSO DE CREEK 7-10-06 Charlie Longsdon

TRUST FUND 12-10-06 Richard Barber

ABBEYBRANEY 9-10-05 Howard Johnson

CERIUM 9-10-05 Paul Murphy

FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05 VenetiaWilliams

PARSONS LEGACY 12-10-05 Philip Hobbs

ROYAL ROSA 11-10-05 Howard Johnson

SILVER BIRCH 13-10-05 Gordon Elliott

COE 8-10-04 Sue Smith

GLENFINN CAPTAIN 11-10-04 Tom Taaffe

KNOWHERE 12-10-04 Nigel Twiston-Davies

OODACHEE 11-10-04 Charlie Swan

WHINSTONE BOY 9-10-04 Jimmy Mangan

FAASEL 9-10-03 David Pipe

MUMBLES HEAD 9-10-03 Peter Bowen

OFFICIER DE RESERVE 8-10-03 VenetiaWilliams

SIZING AUSTRALIA 8-10-03 Henry de Bromhead

TRABOLGAN 12-10-03 Nicky Henderson

CHIEF DAN GEORGE 10-10-02 Jimmy Moffatt

DUERS 8-10-02 Paul Magnier

BALLYTRIM 9-10-01 Willie Mullins

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT 10-10-01 Charlie Swan

PAK JACK 10-10-01 Richard Phillips

BOYCHUK 9-10-00 Philip Hobbs

KINGS ADVOCATE 10-10-00 Tom Taaffe

TREACLE 9-10-00 Tom Taaffe

GALANT NUIT 6-9-13 Ferdy Murphy

ANOTHERCOPPERCOAST 10-9-12 Paul Roche

BELON GALE 7-9-12 Howard Johnson

POMME TIEPY 7-9-12 Willie Mullins

MERIGO 9-9-10 Andrew Parker

CHIARO 8-9-09 Philip Hobbs

KILBEGGAN BLADE 11-9-09 Tom George

ACCORDING TO JOHN 10-9-08 Nicky Richards

LORUM LEADER 9-9-07 Dr Richard Newland

OLD BENNY 9-9-07 Alan King

OVER THE CREEK 11-9-04 David Pipe

COSSACK DANCER 12-9-01 Mark Bradstock

WEE ROBBIE 10-9-00 Nick Gifford

OFFALY 9-8-12 Pru Townsley

Juwwi

alot of unhappy trainers after those weights l'd say.

11-04 tricky trickster and 11-01 war of atrittion both seem alot

is whinstone boy an intended runner does any1 know?

Colonel Sanders

Usual nonsense with the weights. Compress those at the top and hammer Irish trained horses. One Cool Cookie has been hammered and Swan has already voiced displeasure. Abbeybraney looks to have a nice weight and should get in. Seeing at Mon Mome will surely run whatever weights will go up a maximum of 3lbs. Although it wouldn't surprise me to see Notre Pere run off top weight

Nulty

Morgans wrote: »

Ellerslie George isnt a bad shout but his jockey around Aintree wouldn't inspire confidence in me.

I think the way the handicapper is framing the race these days, all weights based stats need to be carefully examined.

It's the owner Guy Henderson is it? Or his son? He got him to win 2 out of four times. I know what you mean about Aintree though. Looks a good partnership all the same

Abbetbraney ran Barbers Shop to within 4 lengths and is lightly raced. He has a very consistent record but I have no idea who'll ride him at Aintree. O'Regan has had him before and got him to win the first time in 3 years LTO. Could be hitting the mark at the right time Abbeybraney.

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

It's the owner Guy Henderson is it? Or his son? He got him to win 2 out of four times. I know what you mean about Aintree though. Looks a good partnership all the same

Abbetbraney ran Barbers Shop to within 4 lengths and is lightly raced. He has a very consistent record but I have no idea who'll ride him at Aintree. O'Regan has had him before and got him to win the first time in 3 years LTO. Could be hitting the mark at the right time Abbeybraney.

Abbeybraney is a professional loser. Not one to have on your side in a battle. Could get turned on by Aintree, more probably he wont.

As for Henderson, its a far cry from pointing the horse and letting him gallop at Wincanton and winning a national. On some form he looks well handicapped and isnt a bad type for the race.

Nulty

What price do you think Abbeybraney ought to be.

Stan James have him at 66/1 and PP at 40/1

Also Ellerslie George beat good horses that day. What makes you say it didn't require a good jockey to do it?

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

What price do you think Abbeybraney ought to be.

Stan James have him at 66/1 and PP at 40/1

In conventional races, I wouldnt trust the horse, especially at short odds. But 66/1 isnt bad value as he is talented and isn't a bad shout at all. 40/1 closer to the mark. Has enough to things going for him. 66/1 is too big.

It takes more skill for a jockey to win a national, than win a 3m chase at Wincanton, regardless of opposition. The national is the race were jockey ability counts for most in my opinion.

Nulty

Thats what I thought

Fair enough, Liam Treadwell is a decent jockey but I wouldn't say he's as good as say McCoy (:P)

Incidentally, Ellerslie George is 66/1 with Bet365, Sporting and SkyBet also. And 189 on the machine

Johner

I'm going to put a bit on Treacle at 66/1.

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

Thats what I thought

Fair enough, Liam Treadwell is a decent jockey but I wouldn't say he's as good as say McCoy (:P)

Francome never won it either, but it doesnt mean that the point in invalid. Had McCoy been on Clan Royal that year instead of Liam Cooper, who knows, it might have made the difference.

Morgans

Gone to Lunch looks well weighted to me.

Huntthe

oops

Colonel Sanders

I think the top 3 are rated 164 but the weights have been compressed so they effectively run off 158. Using this as a bench mark a lot of the English horses run off their correct marks while the Irish horses have been shafted.

Colonel Sanders

Btw I'm not gonna come out with a silly statement like Abbeybraney will win but definately looks overpriced at 66/1

Whyno

Morgans wrote: »

Gone to Lunch looks well weighted to me.

Jumps well and stays. Will go there with a live chance.

Gutted over War of Attrition. Just had a sneaky feeling Mouse was laying him out especially for this and to end his career in style. English handicapper needs a slap imo.....

brandon_flowers

My tuppence each way will be going on Jimmy Mangans Conna Castle at 66/1. Seems to have been held a few times lately for the handicapper and has only 10st 9 to carry.

podsieboy

i agree i think mangan has a serious chance if any of the two run. a trainer who knows what it takes to prepare a national horse

Colonel Sanders

Timeform have Madison clear

National Dream over for War

Nicholls 'wouldn't swap' his pair

Findlay believe Fella has big chance

finbarrk

I'd be keen on Desie Hughes's two.

brandon_flowers

finbarrk wrote: »

I'd be keen on Desie Hughes's two.

Given a good boost in Fairyhouse as well today.

Nulty

Whats the story with the betting? Do most firms go 5 places or what?

Morgans

Maybe closer to the day. It would be unusual now, I think.

Colonel Sanders

Bet365 paying 5 places ante post. Think another firm were too last time I checked. Look at oddschecker and you'll see each bookies' each way terms

Diggy78

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Bet365 paying 5 places ante post. Think another firm were too last time I checked. Look at oddschecker and you'll see each bookies' each way terms

That's good to know, cheers. Will have a look at oddschecker again and hope that a firm that I have an account with is paying 5 places too. Would hate to open another account, how many is too many?? .

Colonel Sanders

Diggy78 wrote: »

how many is too many?? .

No such thing Most give you a free bet when you open

Powers going 5 places ante post too

Colonel Sanders

Bet365 are NRNB on the Grand National

In other news Alberta's Run misses the Grand National but will run at Aintree

Morgans

Possol and War of Attrition withdrawn.

deewhy

4 stand outs at the weights for me:

Whereas I really like and respect Dessie's - especially Black Apalachi, I am worried at their weights.

Big Fella Thanks and Snowy Morning - course form and good ground especially SM.
Have waited for 2 years for Arbour Supreme to run in this and I think if he takes to the fences he will have a cracking chance.
Irish Raptor now comes into the equation - loves the place and looks like he will get in off a cracking weight.
I probably should mention State of Play as well but I did say 4 stand outs!

For what its worth my ante post bets are on Big Fella, Snowy, Arbour, Ballyholland, Offshore Account and King John's Castle. Plenty of room to lay off on these which I will do but this year looks like a top quality race in the making.

finbarrk

GalwayGirl23 wrote: »

just back from cheltenham can anybody tell me where everybody goes after the racing in Aintree, do they stay in aintree or head for liverpool

You could walk down the main st. in Aintree after racing if you wanted, there are loads of pubs at each side of the road, good craic for a few hours untill the rush dies down, then hop in a taxi to town.
The bars on the course stop serving at the start of the last race, it's not like Cheltenham where you can spend a few hours after racing in one of the racecourse bars.
You will need a nice dress for the Friday, ladies day btw.

Juwwi

Snowy Morning seems to tick all the right the boxes for the stats..

3rd in 08 and 9th last year carrying 11.08

with the good chance of soft ground this year wich he'll love he looks a great bet at 20/1 each way..

ladbrokes are now going nr nb 1st 5 places so lm also gona do whinestone boy each way if he doesnt get it wont matter.25/1

UrbanSea

I don't fancy Big Fella Thanks for this at all. I wouldn't fancy a horse to win over 2m4 and then go and win the national unless it is one of the most versatile horses we have ever seen

abouttobebanned

That's a bit of a silly opinion to be honest. There have been a good few national winners that have won over 2m4f and then gone on to win the national. Big fella thanks, for me, is almost a certain placer in this year's race. Finished 6th last year carrying more than 11 pounds and is a year older this year. If you were a trends man you'd be very interested i this horse for this year's race.

UrbanSea

Was it straight after a win over that distance? That's fair enough. I don't know about trends too much for a national,alot of the time it can be a lottery.

deewhy

abouttobebanned wrote: »

That's a bit of a silly opinion to be honest. There have been a good few national winners that have won over 2m4f and then gone on to win the national. Big fella thanks, for me, is almost a certain placer in this year's race. Finished 6th last year carrying more than 11 pounds and is a year older this year. If you were a trends man you'd be very interested i this horse for this year's race.

True and I took this horse out of last years race as one with a big shout. Having looked at last years race again yesterday, one concern was that he was off the bridle quite early, which puts a doubt in my mind especially with ground likely to be soft.

If it tips down and the ground is heavy, then Priest Leap is massively overpriced. He also finished last year and had evey chance at the 2nd last but the ground ultimately saw him fade away. He carried 11.5 last year and the moment is on 11 st. I have a small bet at 250's on betfair matched and 38's for a place (only 4 to be placed on betfair).

dotsflan

deewhy wrote: »

True and I took this horse out of last years race as one with a big shout. Having looked at last years race again yesterday, one concern was that he was off the bridle quite early, which puts a doubt in my mind especially with ground likely to be soft.

If it tips down and the ground is heavy, then Priest Leap is massively overpriced. He also finished last year and had evey chance at the 2nd last but the ground ultimately saw him fade away. He carried 11.5 last year and the moment is on 11 st. I have a small bet at 250's on betfair matched and 38's for a place (only 4 to be placed on betfair).

definetly agree with you there about priest leap. he ran a great race last year and il be having a nibble again on him this year, hopefully the ground wont dry out too much

Colonel Sanders

Madison heads 65 in National

Madison Du Berlais heads 65 entries for Saturday's John Smith's Grand National following the confirmation stage.

A total of 10 horses have been removed, including previous joint-top-weight Notre Pere, the Willie Mullins trio of Deutschland, Dooneys Gate and Equus Maximus and the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Razor Royale.

The withdrawals mean the likes of the much-touted The Package, Hello Bud and Palypso De Creek are now guaranteed a run.

At the bottom of the handicap there are five horses currently on 10st 5lb, but official British Horseracing Authority ratings mean the two that would currently make the final field are Flintoff (138) and Abbeybraney (137).

Whinstone Boy and Chief Dan George, both strongly fancied for National glory, still need horses to drop out to make the cut for the Aintree spectacular.

.

Nulty

So Abbeybraney gets in. Think I'll be swerving anyhow with the P at Cheltenham. I'm reserving selection further.

Although Howard-Johnson is bowlingalong nicely Heres the last 20 runs from the stable

P19P4F21P62322612U31