2010 Monthly Forecast Contest -- scores

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2010 8:13pm #1

Just a few notes copied over from the January thread, if you read them there, you can safely go on to post #2.

The 2010 contest will be based on your ten best scores for the year. You can enter all twelve of course, and there will in fact be two awards, the main award being the Boards.ie Forecast Challenge for the best score (10 of ??) while for the more persistent and regular entrants, the award will be the M.T. Cranium Award of Merit (somewhat of a contradiction in terms) for the highest total score, and if it only takes you eleven to do it, there's even more merit in that.

Now, partly to even out the monthly scores, and partly to get any scores at all after the January reality unfolded, I devised a system of "mercy rules" or scoring guarantees so that if the guesses unfolded on a wider spectrum than usual, the scoring would still reflect relative accuracy, and in this way, one month's scores should be quite comparable to another month's, which should even out the "best ten out of twelve" situation further.

Here's how that will work and I am sure I will have opportunities to practice with this later today when I score January.

a note here on scoring when few people are close to the actual value in any of the parameters. In 2009 we only had perhaps two or three cases where the normal marking system (one point off per 0.1 C error) led to anomalously low scoring in general, requiring a mercy rule. But I want to make even the mercy rules objective, so I have decided that the following rules will apply.

First, to mean monthly temp, which is worth 25 points this year. The scores for this must exceed 20, 15, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 for the first ten finishers. If at any stage of this progression the actual scores fell below that standard then for those contestants in rank order the scores would be increased to this progression.

For the two monthly extremes that are worth 20, the same logic applies and the standard will be 15, 12, 10 etc.

For the rainfall in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 3% error. This component is worth 15 points, and the scores must equal or exceed 12, 10, 8, 7 etc.

For the sunshine in percentage, the scores will be determined by taking off one point per 5% error. This component is worth 10 points, and scores must equal or exceed 10, 9, 8, etc, except that the 10 can be reduced to 9 if the error is 10% or greater, which will then reduce the standard by one thereafter.

The bonus question will always be scored in rank order regardless of errors.

Also please note, there is a penalty for late entry. You're safe to enter up to the end of the first of the month, or other date as announced (due to holiday or other interruptions) and a one-day late entry period will follow (usually the 2nd) ... this carries a penalty of 10% applied to scores over sixty. The penalty will not take you below 60 if you're just over. This is mainly to prevent people from gaining an advantage on the monthly extremes which could be already "in the tank" by the 2nd, as I thinik was the case last June for the maximum.

With this to guide me, then, I shall proceed to score January and report in post #2 how that went.

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2010 9:00pm

These were the forecasts for January:

Forecaster ......... Mean .... Max ... Min ... %rain ... %sun ... wind kts 29-31
________________________________________________________________

Deep Easterly ....... 5.6 ..... 11.3 ..... -8.1 ..... 100 ..... 123 ..... 103
Dasa29 ................. 4.5 ...... 8.0 ..... -8.0 ..... 115 ...... 90 ...... 50
Fionagus .............. 4.2 ..... 10.3 ..... -13.1 ..... 78 ..... 110 ...... 88
Cherryghost .......... 3.9 ..... 11.0 ..... -9.0 ...... 98 ...... 96 ...... 80
Strasser .............. 3.8 ..... 12.5 ..... -11.3 ..... 85 ..... 120 ...... 24
Redsunset ............. 3.7 ..... 9.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 90 ..... 125 ..... 69
Nilhg ................... 3.7 ..... 10.1 ..... -13.3 ..... 65 ..... 121 ..... 91
Nacho Libre .......... 3.6 ..... 11.9 ..... -10.9 ..... 98 ..... 110 ..... 78
Hellboy99 ............. 3.6 ..... 10.3 ..... -10.4 ..... 94 ..... 112 ..... 75

Con Sensus ......... 3.6 ..... 11.2 ..... -11.0 .... 94 .... 111 ..... 72

JD ..................... 3.5 ..... 10.8 ..... -12.1 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 69
Kindred Spirit ........ 3.5 ..... 12.0 ..... -11.0 ..... 94 ..... 103 ..... 65
200motels ........... 3.4 ..... 12.4 ..... -7.5 ..... 110 ..... 114 ..... 89
WolfeIRE ............. 3.3 ...... 8.5 ..... -8.3 ...... 80 ..... 112 ..... 68
Su Campu ............ 3.2 ..... 11.8 ..... -7.9 ..... 95 ..... 110 ..... 74
Danno ................ 2.9 ..... 12.1 ..... -13.7 ..... 103 ...... 92 ..... 76
M.T. Cranium ........ 2.8 ..... 10.5 ..... -12.5 ..... 80 ..... 155 ..... 64
DOCARCH ............. 2.7 ..... 12.2 ..... -11.8 ..... 78 ..... 110 ..... 82
Joe Public ............ 1.9 ..... 13.0 ..... -12.0 ..... 50 ..... 150 ..... 49

ACTUAL VALUES .... 1.8 ..... 12.1 ..... -12.4 ..... 70 ...... 182 ..... 48

Here are the scores, with people rearranged in order of scoring, consensus gets the appropriate scores but does not "interfere" with your score as his/her rank order is ignored for scoring other contestants. If you beat consensus you have a good forecast, not to say that anything lower is necessarily bad, or in this case, that consensus was awfully good either.

Refer to the first post on mercy rules for evened-out scoring, and any scores with asterisks reflect a higher score awarded than raw scoring would provide. Sometimes this does not apply to each contestant in the category.

Joe Public ............ 24 ..... 11 ..... 16 ..... 08 ..... 08* ..... 10 ...... 77
M.T. Cranium ........ 15 ..... 04 ..... 19 ..... 12 ..... 09* ..... 08 ...... 67
DOCARCH ............. 16 ..... 19 ..... 14 ..... 12 ..... 01* ..... 00 ...... 62
Kindred Spirit ........ 08 ..... 19 ..... 06 ..... 07 ...... 00 ..... 07 ...... 47
Strasser .............. 05 ..... 16 ..... 09 ..... 10 ..... 04* ...... 03 ...... 47
Danno ................. 14 ..... 20 ..... 07 ..... 04 ...... 00 ..... 00 ...... 45
JD ...................... 08 ..... 08 ..... 17 ..... 07 ...... 00 ..... 05 ...... 45
Su Campu ............ 11 ..... 17 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 01* ..... 02 ...... 38
Nacho Libre .......... 07 ..... 18 ..... 05 ..... 06 ..... 01* ..... 00 ...... 37

Con Sensus .......... 07 ..... 11 ..... 06 .... 07 .... 01* ..... 03 ...... 35

Nilhg ................... 06 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 13 ..... 05* ..... 00 ...... 33
Redsunset ............ 06 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 08 ..... 07* ..... 05 ...... 32
200motels ........... 09 ..... 17 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 03* ..... 00 ...... 31
WolfeIRE ............. 10 ...... 00 ..... 00 ...... 12 ..... 02* ..... 06 ...... 30
Fionagus .............. 01 ..... 02 ..... 13 ..... 12 ..... 01* ...... 00 ...... 29
Deep Easterly ........ 00 ..... 12 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 06* ..... 00 ...... 23
Cherryghost .......... 04 ..... 10 ..... 00 ...... 06 ...... 00 ...... 00 ...... 20
Hellboy99 ............. 07 ..... 02 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 02* ..... 01 ...... 19
Dasa29 ............... 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ...... 00 ...... 09 ...... 09

Well then, I was actually surprised that the monthly mean temp did not require the mercy rule, the scores dropped off about at the pace of the minimum there. It was needed for sunshine hours, which would have yielded only two scores of about 4/10 otherwise.

Con Sensus did not do exceptionally well in January, I expect these scores to average about 45-50 based on last year. Congrats to Joe Public for an outstanding forecast given the circumstances, Docarch and myself tried to keep up with him; don't be discouraged if you started slow, because I know at least one of the leading trio will be fairly easy to catch.

Any questions or comments, scores can always be corrected if I have slipped up somewhere. Check my addition for your score, you never know.

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2010 8:07pm

Scores for February ...

Actual values ...... 2.6 ..... 11.3 ..... -6.6 ..... 68 ...... 137 ..... 8.2

Jerry Seinfeld ..... 14 ...... 13 ..... 04 ..... 09 .... 07 .... 10......57
Danno ............... 14 ..... 10 ..... 09 ...... 09 .... 08 .... 01......51
mysillyusername .. 05 ..... 20 ..... 00 ...... 09 .... 02 .... 04......40
Joe Public .......... 13 ..... 00 ..... 08 ...... 09 .... 09 .... 00......39

Con Sensus ........ 07 ..... 01 ..... 13 ..... 02 .... 06 ..... 10......39

hellboy99 ........... 11 ..... 03 .... 04 ...... 00 ..... 10 .... 10......38
cherryghost ........ 15 ..... 03 .... 01 ...... 09 ..... 07 ..... 02.....37
redsunset ........... 21 ..... 00 .... 00 ...... 13 ..... 03 .... 00.....37
jd ..................... 08 ..... 00 .... 15 ...... 03 ..... 04 .... 07......37
Su Campu .......... 07 ..... 06 .... 00 ...... 09 ..... 10 .... 03......35
Strasser ............ 07 ..... 00 ..... 15 ..... 07 ..... 03 .... 02......34
TheInquisitor ...... 11 ..... 07 .... 00 ...... 09 ..... 07 .... 00......34
dasa29 .............. 06 ..... 08 .... 09 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 00......31
DOCARCH ........... 08 .... 00 ..... 10 ...... 06 ..... 04 .... 00......28
Kindred Spirit ...... 11 ..... 08 .... 04 ...... 00 ..... 04 .... 01......28
200motels .......... 13 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 04 ..... 10......27
Rebelbrowser ...... 03 ..... 00 .... 19 ..... 00 ..... 01 ..... 00......23
Fionagus ............ 03 ..... 00 .... 05 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 07......21
nacho libre ......... 00 ..... 04 .... 10 ..... 00 ..... 01 ..... 00......15
Deep Easterly ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 13 ..... 00 ..... 01 ..... 00......14
Nilhg ................. 04 ..... 00 .... 01 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 05......13
John mac ........... 02 ..... 00 .... 03 ..... 01 ..... 04 ..... 00......10
MT Cranium ........ 00 ..... 00 .... 06 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 00......09
SeaFields ........... 04 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 01 ..... 03 ..... 00......08

Congrats to Jerry Seinfeld, Danno, Mysillyusername and Joe Public for managing to beat Con Sensus. Scores were generally low this month, it seems that almost everyone lost to consensus in some way, which is unusual. It was basically a similar month to January in statistical terms although somewhat less extreme. I checked the "minimum scoring rule" in each category and the scores all qualified -- max for the month and rainfall barely, so we are stuck with these generally low scores for the month.

As we are very early in the annual cycle, I will just list the average scores for both Jan and Feb, if you don't appear here it's because you entered only one contest so far, but later in the year if you keep entering, you'll start to appear when you have participated in all but two to date:

Joe Public.... 58
Danno......... 48
DOCARCH..... 45
JD.............. 41
Strasser...... 40.5
M.T. Cranium 38
Kindred Spirit 37.5

Con Sensus.. 37

Su Campu.... 36.5
Redsunset.... 34.5
200motels..... 29
Cherryghost.. 28.5
Hellboy99..... 28.5
Nacho Libre... 26
Fionagus....... 25
Nilhg............ 23
Dasa29......... 20
Deep Easterly 18.5

Deep Easterly · 01-03-2010 8:39pm

I am bottom of the pile.

Great stuff! :pac:

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2010 12:00am

Yeah but you're top of the pile in terms of contributions, general knowledge, and enthusiasm. So don't worry about it.

Just keep my seat warm, that's all I ask. (on the way downnnnnn ...)

M.T. Cranium · 01-04-2010 9:10pm

Scores for March following the actual values observed.

Forecaster ........Mean.....Max......Min.....Rain%....Sun%....Dub17th

Actual values ....5.5.....14.7....-7.7.....102......147......14.3
......................................................................................TOTALS
redsunset ........ 18 ..... 13 ... 18 ...... 07 ...... 10 ...... 00.......66
nilhg ............... 22 ..... 18 .... 07* .....09 ..... 01 ..... 02........59
*Rebelbrowser .. 18 ..... 15 .... 15 ..... 08 ..... 02 ....... 00.......58
thetonynator .... 22 ..... 18 .... 03 ..... 06 ..... 05 ...... 00........54
kindredspirit ...... 22 ..... 19 ... 00 ..... 08 ..... 04 ...... 01........54

Con Sensus ..... 22 ..... 20 .... 01* ..... 08 ..... 02 ..... 00........53

talkabout ......... 22 ..... 14 .... 00 ..... 07 ..... 01 ...... 07........51
DOCARCH ......... 21 ..... 00 ... 11 ..... 08 ..... 02 ...... 08.........50
Jerry Seinfeld ....19 ..... 13 ..... 05* .....01 ..... 09 ..... 00........47
M.T. Cranium .... 22 ..... 07 .... 05* .... 06 ..... 05 ..... 00........45
200motels ........ 21 ..... 12 .... 01* .....07 ..... 00 ..... 03........44
nacho libre ....... 23 ..... 09 .... 01* .... 04 ..... 07 ...... 00.......44
Joe Public ........ 09 ..... 12 .... 06* .... 06 ...... 08 ...... 00.......41
dasa29 ............ 23 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 08 ..... 00 ...... 10........41
hellboy99 ......... 24 ..... 08 .... 00 ..... 08 ..... 00 ...... 00........40
TheInquisitor .... 20 ..... 00 .... 11 ..... 07 ..... 00 ...... 00........38
jdburkedjburke .. 23 ..... 03 .... 00 ..... 08 ..... 03 ....... 00.......37
Strasser .......... 20 ..... 02 .... 05* .... 08 ..... 02 ...... 00.......37
Danno ............. 20 ..... 01 ..... 08* .....00 ..... 08 ..... 00.......37
jd ................... 20 ..... 10 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 00 ...... 04.......37
Su Campu ........ 20 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 02 ...... 07.......35
Popoutman ....... 06 ..... 13 ..... 05* ....07 ..... 03 ...... 01.......35
Fionagus .......... 21 ..... 11 .... 00 ..... 02 ..... 00 ...... 00........34
John mac ......... 11 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 02 ...... 09.......28
cherryghost ..... 21 ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 01 ...... 00 ..... 00.......28
Deep Easterly ... 22 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ...... 00........22
SeaFields ......... 01 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 01 ...... 05.......11

The monthly minimum scores needed slight adjustments to meet the requirement of progression of scores. Oddly, the first five scores were fine then the next five had to be adjusted up; these scores are marked by asterisks. Sunshine was barely on the line for scoring by progression, generally the estimates were too low but every position qualified by progression. The one late entrant was not penalized due to total score being under 60.

Congratulations to Redsunset, Nilhg and Rebelbrowser for leading the way. Kindred Spirit and Thetonynator also beat Con Sensus who scored 53 this month. The pack following that score are fairly bunched up.

I will post some cumulative scores next.

M.T. Cranium · 01-04-2010 9:33pm

The annual contest will take your ten best scores, so here's where things stand after March, including all who have entered at least two out of three:

Joe Public.... (157/3) ... 52.3
Jerry Seinfeld (104/2) ... 52.0
DOCARCH..... (140/3) ... 46.7
Redsunset.... (135/3) ... 45.0
Danno......... (133/3) ... 44.3
Kindred Spirit (129/3) ... 43.0

Con Sensus.. (127/3) ... 42.3

Rebelbrowser . (81/2) ... 40.5
M.T. Cranium (121/3) ... 40.3
JD.............. (119/3) ... 39.7
Strasser...... (118/3) ... 39.3
Nilhg........... (115/3) ... 38.3
Su Campu.... (108/3) ... 36.0
The Inquisitor (72/2) .... 36.0
200motels.....(102/3) ... 34.0
Hellboy99..... (97/3) .... 32.3
Nacho Libre... (96/3) ... 32.0
Cherryghost.. (85/3) .... 28.3
Fionagus....... (84/3) ... 28.0
Dasa29......... (81/3) ... 27.0
Deep Easterly (59/3) .... 19.7
Johnmac ..... (38/2) ..... 19.0
Seafields .... (19/2) ...... 09.5

Six forecasters are staying ahead of Con Sensus, and about ten are close behind. Congrats to Joe Public and Jerry Seinfeld for leading the way so far.

M.T. Cranium · 04-05-2010 5:10pm

Scores for April, including the actual values:

Forecaster ...... Mean .... Max .... Min ...Rain% . Sun% ... 4th

Actuals ........... 8.9 ..... 19.6 .... -3.8 .... 096 .... 132 .... 8.8

Joe Public ........ 15 ....... 17 ...... 19 ...... 14 ...... 09........ 09 .... 83
Jerry Seinfeld ... 14 ....... 17 ...... 15 ...... 13 ...... 08........ 07 .... 74
thetonynator .... 25 ...... 13 ...... 07 ...... 07 ...... 05........ 08 .... 65
DOCARCH ........ 15 ....... 16 ...... 05 ...... 15 ...... 06 ....... 07 .... 64
Strasser .......... 18 ....... 08 ..... 16 ...... 11 .......03........ 07 .... 63
cherryghost ..... 22........ 16 ...... 11 ...... 00 ..... 06 ....... 04 .... 59
kindredspirit ..... 21 ....... 17 ...... 02 ...... 01 ..... 06........ 10 .... 57
Su Campu ....... 17 ....... 04 ...... 13 ...... 10 ...... 03........ 07 .... 54
snow ghost ..... 14 ....... 19 ...... 13 ...... 00 ...... 03 ....... 04 .... 53

Con Sensus ..... 17 ...... 15 ...... 10 ...... 00 ...... 04......... 07 ..... 53

Dasa29 ........... 19 ...... 00 ...... 18 ...... 09 ..... 05 ....... 00 ..... 51
nilhg .............. 17 ...... 15 ...... 10 ...... 00 ...... 01........ 07 .... 50
nacho libre ..... 15 ....... 11 ...... 07 ..... 02 ...... 07........ 07 .... 49
Hellboy99 ....... 16 ....... 09 ..... 12 ...... 00 ...... 06....... 04 ..... 47
Rebelbrowser .. 18 ....... 11 ...... 01 ...... 03 ..... 04 ....... 09 .... 46
dbyrne ........... 24 ...... 00 ...... 14 ...... 00 ..... 01........ 07 .... 46
SeaFields ....... 25 ...... 12 ....... 00 ...... 01 ..... 02........ 06 .... 46
jd ................. 21 ...... 12 ....... 01 ...... 00 ...... 05....... 07 .... 46
redsunset ...... 16 ....... 14 ...... 00 ...... 06 ...... 06....... 03 .... 45
waterways ..... 23 ....... 00 ...... 05 ..... 01 ...... 06 ....... 09 .... 44
M.T. Cranium .. 10 ...... 12 ...... 15 ...... 05 ...... 01........ 01 .... 44
patneve2 ....... 17 ...... 04 ...... 17 ...... 04 ...... 00........ 08 .... 42
John mac ....... 16 ...... 10 ...... 06 ...... 04 ...... 03........ 01 .... 40
Danno ........... 10 ...... 00 ...... 15 ...... 07 ...... 02........ 05 .... 39
Talkabout ...... 18 ...... 00 ...... 00 ...... 15 ...... 06 ....... 00..... 39
Fionagus ........ 17 ..... 11 ....... 01 ...... 00 ..... 06........ 03 ..... 38
200motels ...... 17 ...... 02 ...... 11 ...... 00 ..... 02........ 06 ..... 38
DeepEasterly... 19 ...... 07 ...... 03 ...... 00 ...... 04........ 04 .... 37
pauldry ......... 12 ...... 05 ...... 00 ...... 11 .......03........ 06 ..... 37
Popoutman .... 20 ...... 00 ...... 00 ...... 07 .......02........ 01 ..... 30

Congrats then to Joe Public and Jerry Seinfeld for leading the way in a month where almost everyone seemed to do fairly well -- seems that the unusual distribution of mean and extreme temps scattered the scores around, and it wasn't necessary to adjust any scores to keep the minimum scoring in play.

I will update the cumulative some time later -- in doing this month, I noticed that I was about to use 10 instead of 15 as the max for rainfall, so I looked back and apparently this happened in March (not the other two months) so before I can do the cumulatives, I will need to adjust March, basically, everyone who scored for rainfall in March will get five extra points and anyone who scored zero might be getting somewhere from 0-5 extra. This may affect the previously stated cumulatives slightly too, but probably not by much. So this error will be corrected before the new annual positions are announced.

Okay, just looking back, I can't edit the March table, or the cumulative to end of March. But make a note, everyone gets five extra points including Danno who should have scored five rather than zero, except that DE remains at his March score as he did not score on rainfall despite the error in scoring. So this will explain why all cumulative totals are five higher now than they should be if you just add this month's total to the old cumulative total.

Anyway, this makes it simple for me to proceed to that stage, so look for some cumulative scores in a few minutes.

M.T. Cranium · 04-05-2010 5:57pm

The annual contest will take your ten best scores, so here's where things stand after April, including all who have entered at least three out of four (see my note on March scoring above, most of you are getting five more points from March in case you're checking the arithmetic):

Joe Public.... (245/4) ... 61.3
Jerry Seinfeld (183/3) ... 61.0
DOCARCH..... (209/4) ... 52.3
Kindred Spirit (191/4) ... 47.8
Strasser...... (186/4) ... 46.5
Redsunset.... (185/4) ... 46.3

Con Sensus.. (185/4) ... 46.3

Danno......... (177/4) ... 44.3
Rebelbrowser . (132/3) .. 44.0
M.T. Cranium (170/4) ... 42.5
JD.............. (170/4) ... 42.5
Nilhg........... (170/4) ... 42.5
Su Campu.... (167/4) ... 41.8
Nacho Libre... (150/4) ... 37.5
Cherryghost.. (149/4) ... 37.3
Hellboy99..... (147/4) ... 36.8
200motels.....(145/4) ... 36.3
Dasa29......... (137/4) .. 34.3
Fionagus....... (127/4) .. 31.8
Johnmac ..... (83/3) ..... 27.7
Deep Easterly (96/4) .... 24.0
Seafields .... (70/3) ...... 23.3

Also with two forecasts ...

The Tonynator (124/2) ... 62.0
Talkabout ...... (95/2) .... 47.5
The Inquisitor (77/2) .... 38.5
Popoutman .... (75/2) .... 37.5

Please let me know if I have overlooked anyone especially in the 2 forecast group. The twos are eligible for the annual contest as long as they enter all remaining months. The threes have one grace month and the fours have two grace months as it's your best ten out of twelve that count there. But for the ultimate bragging rights you need to enter all twelve.

Our leaders, Joe Public, Jerry Seinfeld, DOCARCH and provisionally The Tonynator, have all gained ground this month with higher scores than most in April. So the rest of us are going to have to pull our socks up now to stay in the hunt.

DOCARCH · 04-05-2010 6:02pm

Thanks for all the hard work MT (especially given I'm near the top of the table).

thetonynator · 04-05-2010 6:15pm

So,provisionally, I'm coming first . . .:D

I have a strange feeling that it has more to do with luck in my case . . .:(

Thanks for all the effort M.T. . . .

200motels · 04-05-2010 10:13pm

Great work MT, much appreciated.

nacho libre · 04-05-2010 10:42pm

I feel your work would be much better MT if you had me near the top;) despite all my pms you're not for bribing:(

jd · 05-05-2010 6:08pm

Just a suggestion- could this be stickied,along with the current month's forecasts!?

thetonynator · 05-05-2010 7:54pm

jd wrote: »

Just a suggestion- could this be stickied,along with the current month's forecasts!?

+1

M.T. Cranium · 07-05-2010 8:48pm

Done, thanks moderators.

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2010 2:21pm

Scoring for May ... For the monthly max, some scores were adjusted upward (marked by *) to conform with the "minimum scoring rule" explained back in January. There were a lot of ties for the max as people seem to be choosing values that end in .0 or .5, which explains the uneven downward progression of scores there. I was expecting the rainfall scores to need adjustment but the progression fell right on the minimum scoring rule standard.

Forecaster .... Mean .... Max .... Min .... Rain% .... Sun% .... Max 22nd
________________________________________________________

Actual values ...10.8.....25.6.....-2.0......069........115......24.0

nilhg ................ 23 ..... 06*.... 19 ..... 13 ..... 10 .... 05 .... 76
Su Campu ......... 22 .... 19 ...... 15 ..... 08 ..... 08 .... 00 .... 72
hellboy99 .......... 24 .... 06*..... 16 ..... 04 ..... 08 .... 08 .... 66
mickger844posts. 21 .... 01*..... 14 ..... 11 ..... 10 .... 06 .... 63
redsunset ......... 13 .... 16 ...... 15 ..... 08 ..... 00 .... 10 .... 62
DOCARCH ......... 22 .... 00 ...... 19 ..... 08 ..... 09 .... 02 .... 60
John mac ......... 23 .... 00 ...... 17 ..... 02 ..... 07 .... 09 .... 58
Deep Easterly ... 22 .... 09*...... 09 ..... 05 ..... 09 .... 00 .... 54
M.T. Cranium .... 24 .... 00 ...... 20 ..... 00 ...... 08 .... 01 .... 53
dasa29 ............ 22 .... 08*..... 00 ..... 03 ...... 08 .... 07 .... 48
SeaFields ......... 21 .... 02* .... 10...... 06 ...... 09 .... 00 .... 48
Fionagus .......... 22 .... 02* .... 14 ..... 01 ...... 09 .... 00 .... 48
Danno ............. 23 .... 06*..... 12 ..... 00 ...... 06 .... 00 .... 47

Con Sensus ...... 22 .... 01*..... 11 ..... 03 ..... 09 .... 00 .... 46

kindredspirit ..... 19 .... 02* .... 10 ...... 00 ..... 07 .... 04 .... 42
pauldry ........... 24 .... 01*..... 10 ...... 01 ..... 06 .... 00 .... 42
thetonynator ... 25 .... 00....... 07 ...... 01 ..... 09 .... 00 .... 42
talkabout......... 16 .... 01*..... 12....... 03 ..... 09 .... 00 .... 41
nacho libre ...... 24 .... 10*..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 06 .... 00 .... 40
Strasser ......... 22 .... 00....... 05 ...... 01 ..... 09 .... 01 .... 38
jd .................. 24 .... 02* .... 00 ...... 00 ..... 08 .... 04 .... 38
200motels ....... 19 .... 06*..... 00....... 00 .... 08 ..... 00 .... 33
Joe Public ....... 16 .... 00 ...... 11 ...... 00 ..... 03 .... 00 .... 30
Jerry Seinfeld ...15 .... 00....... 00 ...... 00 ..... 07 .... 00 .... 22

Fairly good scoring this month, and congrats to Nilhg, Su Campu and Hellboy99 for leading the way. A report on the cumulative scoring will follow shortly.

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2010 3:06pm

After May here is the updated annual scoring table ... I have dropped a few entrants who were no-shows in April and May, can always pick up again later. I also included Pauldry who has only two entries but is near the middle of the table anyway.

In general terms, the table has tightened up considerably; May was favourable to the lower half of the table, it seems.

thetonynator (166/3) ... 55.3
Joe Public.... (275/5) ... 55.0
DOCARCH..... (269/5) ... 53.8
Jerry Seinfeld (205/4) ... 51.3
Redsunset.... (247/5) ... 49.4
Nilhg........... (246/5) ... 49.2
Su Campu.... (239/5) ... 47.8
Kindred Spirit (233/5) ... 46.6

Con Sensus.. (231/5) ... 46.2

Talkabout ... (136/3) ... 45.3
Strasser...... (224/5) ... 44.8
Danno......... (224/5) ... 44.8
M.T. Cranium (223/5) ... 44.6
Rebelbrowser (132/3) .. 44.0
Hellboy99..... (213/5) ... 42.6
JD.............. (208/5) ... 41.6
Pauldry ....... (79/2) .... 39.5
Nacho Libre... (190/5) .. 38.0
Cherryghost.. (149/4) ... 37.3
Dasa29......... (185/5) .. 37.0
200motels.....(178/5) ... 35.6
Fionagus....... (175/5) .. 35.0
Johnmac ..... (141/4) ... 35.3
Deep Easterly (150/5) ... 30.0
Seafields .... (118/4) .... 29.5

Really, it's quite a close race now, good luck in June (enter now if you haven't already).

200motels · 02-06-2010 2:45pm

Great work MT.

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2010 7:53pm

June scoring:

Forecaster ...... Mean ... Max .. Min .. Rain% .. Sun% . Cork 7th
___________________________________________________________

Actual values ... 15.1 ... 24.9 .. 2.6 ... 065 .. 123 .16.0,13.9 ... Totals

SeaFields .......... 25 ..... 05*.. 06 ..... 12 ..... 10 ..... 04 ...... 62
Joe Public ......... 13 ..... 10 ... 17 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 08 ...... 62
Danno .............. 10 ..... 12 ... 12 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 10 ...... 59
mickger844posts. 20 ..... 00 ... 16 ..... 13 ..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 58
talkabout .......... 25 ..... 00 ... 17 ..... 04 ..... 09 ..... 01 ...... 56
thetonynator ..... 15 ..... 17 ... 12 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 02 ...... 53
200motels ......... 15 ..... 00 ... 16 ..... 12 ..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 52
Nacho libre ........ 13 ..... 00 ... 15 ..... 09 ..... 10 ..... 05 ...... 52
M.T. Cranium ..... 16 ..... 00 ... 11 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 08 ...... 51
John mac .......... 25 ..... 00 ... 15 ..... 01 ..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 50
Su Campu ......... 08 ..... 20 ... 08 ..... 05 ..... 06 ..... 03 ...... 50
Leeside ............. 23 ..... 00 ... 15 ..... 02 ..... 07 ..... 02 ..... 49
kindredspirit ...... 11 ..... 04*... 11 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 49

Con Sensus ....... 14 ..... 01*.. 17 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 03 ...... 49

Jerry Seinfeld ..... 07 ..... 19 ... 06 ..... 05 ..... 06 ..... 05 ...... 48
Fionagus ........... 13 ..... 00 ... 14 ..... 08 ..... 08 ..... 00 ...... 43
dasa29 ............. 19 ..... 01* . 04 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 02 ...... 42
Deep Easterly .... 17 ..... 00 ... 07 ..... 10 ..... 06 ..... 02 ...... 42
Rebelbrowser ..... 20 ..... 05*.. 00 ..... 07 ..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 41
jd .................... 14 ..... 00 ... 11 ..... 09 ..... 07 ..... 00 ...... 41
hellboy99 .......... 14 ..... 00 ... 10 ..... 08 ..... 07 ..... 00 ...... 39
pauldry ............. 12 ..... 00 ... 09 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 06 ...... 35
DOCARCH .......... 11 ..... 02*.. 00 ..... 05 ..... 08 ..... 07 ...... 33
redsunset ......... 19 ..... 02* .. 00 ..... 07 ..... 01 ..... 04 ...... 33
nilhg ................ 11 ..... 01*... 00 ..... 03 ..... 08 ..... 09 ...... 32
Strasser ............ 04 ..... 07*.. 06 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 07 ...... 27

It was necessary to adjust the scores for highest temp of month, oddly enough the higher scores were on the progression but then there would have been too few scoring 0-8 so some in that range were boosted (*) ... the scores were generally rather clustered because it was a warm month with unusually low extremes for a warm month. Most guessed close on sunshine. The Cork scores are a blend of temp and precip scores and reflect the rank order of the combined totals.

Congrats to SeaFields, Joe Public and Danno for leading the way this month.

The updated annual scoring race will follow shortly (then lunch). :cool:

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2010 8:16pm

Updated annual scoring race, at the half-way point (half-way for those with all six months entered) ...

Joe Public.... (337/6) ... 56.2
thetonynator (219/4) ... 54.8
Jerry Seinfeld (253/5) ... 50.6
DOCARCH..... (302/6) ... 50.3
Su Campu.... (289/6) ... 48.2
Talkabout ... (192/4) ... 48.0
Danno......... (283/6) ... 47.2
Kindred Spirit (282/6) ... 47.0
Redsunset.... (280/6) ... 46.7

Con Sensus.. (280/6) ... 46.7

Nilhg........... (278/6) ... 46.3
M.T. Cranium (274/6) ... 45.7
Rebelbrowser (173/4) ... 43.3
Hellboy99..... (252/6) ... 42.0
Strasser...... (251/6) .... 41.8
JD.............. (249/6) .... 41.5
Nacho Libre.. (242/6) ... 40.3
200motels.....(230/6) ... 38.3
Johnmac ..... (191/5) ... 38.2
Dasa29......... (227/6) .. 37.8
Cherryghost.. (149/4) ... 37.3
Fionagus....... (218/6) .. 36.3
Seafields .... (180/5) .... 36.0
Pauldry ....... (104/3) ... 34.7
Deep Easterly (192/6) ... 32.0

Slight changes here and there, but it remains a very close race.

Check my math for your score, as I am in a bit of high-altitude fog here.

M.T. Cranium · 03-08-2010 6:11pm

July scoring ...

Forecaster ........ Mean (C) ..... Max .... Min .... Rain% ... Sun% .... Mull15
____________________________________________________________

............................ 15.7 ..... 24.2 ..... 6.3 .... 216 .... 076 .... 23.7 ... TOTAL

Danno ................... 25 ...... 16 ...... 04 ..... 10* ..... 08 ..... 09 ..... 72
Jerry Seinfeld ......... 22 ...... 18 ...... 19 ..... 06* ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 71
redsunset .............. 22 ...... 12 ...... 13 ..... 09* ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 65
Strasser ................ 24 ...... 17 ...... 00 ..... 11* ..... 07 ..... 04 ..... 63
200motels .............. 25 ...... 00 ...... 12 ..... 13* ..... 06 ..... 01 ..... 57
Joe Public .............. 21 ...... 06* .... 14 ..... 08* ..... 07 ..... 02 ..... 58
thetonynator .......... 20 ...... 08* .... 16 ..... 06* ..... 04 ..... 01 ..... 55
waterways ............. 12 ...... 00 ...... 15 ..... 13* ..... 04 ..... 10 ..... 54
nilhg ..................... 24 ...... 13 ...... 05 ..... 03* ..... 05 ..... 01 ..... 51
pauldry .................. 17 ...... 05* .... 09 ..... 09* ..... 03 ..... 07 ..... 50

Con Sensus ............ 25 ...... 00 ...... 18 ..... 01* ..... 04 ..... 01 ..... 49

mickger844posts ..... 23 ...... 00 ...... 18 .,.... 00 ...... 04 ..... 00 ..... 45
jd ......................... 20 ...... 00 ...... 18 ..... 04* ..... 02 ..... 00 ..... 44
JamBur .................. 21 ...... 00 ...... 12 ..... 01* ..... 06 ..... 02 ..... 42
Fionagus ................ 21 ...... 00 ...... 18 ..... 00 ...... 01 ..... 01 ..... 41
Rebelbrowser .......... 16 ...... 00 ...... 15 ..... 01* ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 41
Dasa29 .................. 18 ...... 02* .... 17 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 03 ..... 40
kindredspirit ........... 15 ...... 00 ...... 13 ...... 00 ..... 05 ..... 05 ..... 38
nacho libre ............. 20 ...... 00 ...... 10 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 08 ..... 38
WolfeIRE ................ 22 ...... 00 ...... 12 ..... 00 ...... 03 ..... 00 ..... 37
hellboy99 ............... 24 ...... 00 ...... 07 ..... 00 ...... 03 ..... 00 ..... 34
DOCARCH ............... 20 ...... 03* .... 05 ..... 00 ...... 04 ..... 01 ..... 33
SeaFields ............... 11 ...... 08*..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 03 ..... 00 ..... 31
Su Campu .............. 13 ...... 00 ...... 12 ..... 00 ...... 05 ..... 01 ..... 31
M.T. Cranium .......... 17 ...... 00 ...... 05 ..... 00 ...... 04 ..... 00 ..... 26
talkabout ............... 22 ...... 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ...... 02 ..... 01 ..... 25
Deep Easterly ......... 20 ...... 01* ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 23
John mac ............... 11 ...... 00 ...... 00 ..... 08* .... 03 ..... 01 ..... 23

_____________________________________

* denotes scores adjusted by minimum scoring rules; these were applied to the lower range of the max temp for month and to all of the rainfall forecasts, others qualified without adjustment, and the scoring for the bonus was done basically in rank order down to about 3 points and half the rain you predicted for the lower points. Anyone who went dry went bust.

Congrats to Danno and Jerry Seinfeld for leading the way through this rather challenging month. Annual scoring table to be updated next.

M.T. Cranium · 03-08-2010 6:34pm

Annual scoring race through July ...

Joe Public.... (395/7) ... 56.4
thetonynator (274/5) ... 54.8
Jerry Seinfeld (324/6) ... 54.0
Danno......... (355/7) ... 50.7
Redsunset.... (345/7) ... 49.3
DOCARCH..... (335/7) ... 47.9

Con Sensus.. (329/7) ... 47.0

Nilhg........... (327/7) ... 46.7
Su Campu.... (320/7) ... 45.7
Kindred Spirit (320/7) ... 45.7
Strasser...... (314/7) ... 44.9
Talkabout ... (217/5) ... 43.4
M.T. Cranium (300/7) ... 42.9
Rebelbrowser (214/5) ... 42.8
JD.............. (293/7) .... 41.9
200motels.....(287/7) ... 41.0
Hellboy99..... (286/7) ... 40.9
Nacho Libre.. (280/7) ... 40.0
Pauldry ....... (154/4) ... 38.5
Dasa29......... (267/7) .. 38.1
Cherryghost.. (149/4) ... 37.3
Fionagus....... (259/7) .. 37.0
Johnmac ..... (214/6) ... 35.7
Seafields .... (211/6) .... 35.2
Deep Easterly (215/7) ... 30.7

It's turning into a close race now at the top of the pack with Joe Public holding onto a narrow lead over Thetonynator and Jerry Seinfeld, as Danno and Redsunset have moved up.

M.T. Cranium · 01-09-2010 7:03pm

August scores as follows ...

Forecaster ... IMT ... Max ... Min ... Rain% ... Sun% .. Gurteen 8th
_______________________________________________________________

Actual ......... 14.2 ... 24.2 ... 0.6 ... 052 ... 133 .. 19.8 .. 01.2

Fionagus ........ 17 .... 20 .... 15* .... 07* .... 05 ... 05 ... 03 .... 72
Danno ........... 14 .... 15 .... 14* .... 04* .... 08 ... 05 ... 04 .... 64
Jerry Seinfeld .. 15 .... 14 .... 00 ..... 10* .... 07 ... 05 ... 04 .... 55
DOCARCH ....... 11 .... 04 .... 19* .... 07* .... 06 ... 03 ... 05 .... 55
Thetonynator... 13 .... 13 .... 08* ... 09* .... 06 ... 01 ... 05 .... 55
pauldry .......... 14 .... 19 .... 08* .... 03* .... 05 ... 05 ... 00 .... 54
Strasser ......... 19 .... 13 ... 17* .... 01* .... 02 ... 05 ... 01 .... 58
TheInquisitor.... 23 .... 00 ... 14* .... 08* .... 00 ... 00 ... 04 .... 49
KindredSpirit ... 14 .... 12 .... 12* .... 00 ..... 01 ... 04 ... 04 .... 47
John mac ....... 13 .... 00 .... 06* .... 09* .... 08 ... 02 ... 05 .... 43
nilhg ............. 10 .... 04 .... 06* .... 12* .... 05 ... 00 ... 05 .... 42

Con Sensus .... 12 .... 03 .... 05* .... 04* .... 05 ... 05 ... 05 .... 39

Su Campu ...... 21 .... 02 .... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ... 04 ... 05 .... 38
Deep Easterly.. 18 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 06* .... 05 ... 05 ... 03 .... 37
mickger844ps.. 11 .... 04 .... 09* .... 00 ..... 03 ... 05 ... 04 .... 36
Joe Public ...... 12 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 08* ... 10 .... 02 ... 04 .... 36
WolfeIRE ....... 12 .... 00 .... 12* .... 00 ..... 04 ... 03 ... 04 .... 35
MT Cranium ... 17 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 04* .... 04 ... 04 ... 05 .... 34
Rebelbrowser.. 08 .... 04 .... 00 ..... 07* .... 06 ... 05 ... 04 .... 34
nacho libre .... 11 .... 00 .... 14* .... 00 ..... 01 ... 02 ... 04 .... 32
waterways .... 12 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 10* .... 07 ... 02 ... 01 .... 32
redsunset ..... 12 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 04* .... 06 ... 05 ... 05 .... 32
hellboy99 ...... 10 .... 01 .... 04* ... 03* .... 06 ... 02 ... 04 .... 30
upforanything. 09 .... 05 .... 07* ... 00 ...... 06 ... 02 ... 00 .... 29
dasa29 ......... 05 .... 00 .... 02* ... 07* .... 07 ... 02 ... 02 .... 25
homolumo ..... 00 .... 05 ..... 00 .... 05* .... 02 ... 05 ... 05 .... 22
200motels ..... 06 .... 00 .... 10* ... 00 ...... 02 ... 04 ... 00 .... 22
jd ................ 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 01* ... 03 .... 00 ... 04 .... 09
SeaFields ...... 04 .... 00 .... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 00 ... 03 .... 07

____________________________________________________

* denotes adjusted scoring as per the "minimum scoring rules." The minimum temperature for the month was so low that nobody would have received any points in the standard scoring method, so these were scored by the minimum progression. The rainfall was also well below the scale of our forecasts although some would have scored about half the points shown, once again, the scores were adjusted. Sunshine was running just outside the minimum progression and I was a bit generous rounding off but used the normal scale. As explained in the monthly thread, for the bonus, the rainfall portion was scored on the basis of 4/5 for dry forecasts (the rain recorded was in the last hour of the day after the event had finished) and a sliding scale on actual rainfall forecasts.

Congrats to Fionagus and Danno for leading the way this month.

The new running totals for the year will be presented soon ...

M.T. Cranium · 01-09-2010 7:27pm

Annual scoring race updated ... as this will be based on your best ten (out of however many), I will work on a table that shows your best 6 so far (but not today) ...

thetonynator (329/6) ... 54.8
Jerry Seinfeld (379/7) ... 54.1
Joe Public.... (431/8) ... 53.8
Danno......... (419/8) ... 52.4
DOCARCH..... (390/8) ... 48.8
Redsunset.... (377/8) ... 47.1
Strasser...... (372/8) ... 46.5
Nilhg........... (369/8) ... 46.1

Con Sensus.. (368/8) ... 46.0

Kindred Spirit (367/8) ... 45.9
Su Campu.... (358/8) ... 44.8
Talkabout ... (217/5) ... 43.4
M.T. Cranium (334/8) ... 41.8
Pauldry ....... (208/5) ... 41.6
Fionagus....... (331/8) .. 41.4
Rebelbrowser (248/6) ... 41.3
Hellboy99..... (316/8) ... 39.5
Nacho Libre.. (312/8) ... 39.0
200motels.....(309/8) ... 38.6
JD.............. (302/8) .... 37.8
Johnmac ..... (257/7) ... 36.7
Dasa29......... (292/8) .. 36.5
Deep Easterly (252/8) ... 31.5
Seafields .... (218/7) .... 31.1

The field is actually tightening up gradually, with Danno continuing his steady upward progress. There will be two awards available, the Boards contest "gold medal" so to speak (best ten forecasts) and the MTC Award which goes to the best average for all twelve.

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2010 2:55am

A new feature to help you track your scores for the annual competition. As you know, the group decided to go with best ten forecasts (out of however many are submitted) as the basis for the scoring in the main contest. I added on the entirely fictional and value-free "M.T. Cranium Award" for the person who really wins by having the best average for all twelve (just kidding, both methods are good). So it's easy to track who is ahead in the race for that MTC business, but a little more tricky to evaluate the race for the main prize.

Therefore, I have constructed this chart which will show how the regular contestants (anyone who has so far missed zero, one or at most two months and is therefore still in the running) are doing, with two derived values, AA and BB, which after August would be their score for 7/8 and for 6/8 so far. When I add September to the chart, these change to 8/9 and 7/9. Eventually they change to 10/11 and 9/11. At the end I will drop AA which has no further value and list 10/12 scores. These will remain totals rather than averages simply because it saves me a lot of bother, you can figure out the averages if you want.

I think the "AA" score or 7/8 is probably the best indicator now since it might be assumed that each person in the running might drop one of the remaining four scores en route to their annual score.

Please check my math for your own score. Note that all March scores were adjusted up by five, this could not be edited into the table for March but was reflected in the annual scoring race starting with April. Con Sensus is once again added just to show how good she really is (bet you didn't know Con Sensus was a lady). :cool:

Forecasters are listed in the order they now stand in the MTC part of the contest, which may explain any slight variations in order. Sadly, Talkabout missed another month and has three strikes, so he's out; also Pauldry and one or two others entered a bit too late in the year to qualify (but next year, friends). As we get closer to the end I will start moving the entries around to reflect their "BB" ranking.

If you have already missed one, then you show the same scores under AA and BB with an asterisk for AA, so you have only one mulligan to use. If you have already missed two, then both your scores contain an asterisk -- you have no mulligans left. (Mulligan is a golfing term meaning a bad shot you can take over again, just in case you never heard it before).

FCSTR ............... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D ... AA ... BB

thetonynator .... -- . -- . 59 . 65 . 42 . 53 . 55 . 55 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 329* .. 329*
Jerry Seinfeld ... -- . 57 . 52 . 74 . 22 . 48 . 71 . 55 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 379* .. 357
Joe Public ........ 77 . 39 . 46 . 83 . 30 . 62 . 58 . 36 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 401 ... 365
Danno ............. 45 . 51 . 42 . 39 . 47 . 59 . 72 . 64 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 380 ... 338
DOCARCH ........ 62 . 28 . 55 . 64 . 60 . 33 . 33 . 55 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 362 ... 329
Redsunset ....... 32 . 37 . 71 . 45 . 62 . 33 . 65 . 32 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 345 ... 313
Strasser .......... 47 . 34 . 42 . 63 . 38 . 27 . 63 . 58 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 345 ... 311
Nilhg ............... 33 . 13 . 64 . 50 . 76 . 32 . 51 . 42 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 348 .. 316

Con Sensus ..... 35 . 39 . 58 . 53 . 46 . 49 . 49 . 39 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 333 .. 294

Kindred Spirit ... 47 . 28 . 59 . 57 . 42 . 49 . 38 . 47 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 339 ... 301
Su Campu ....... 38 . 35 . 40 . 54 . 72 . 50 . 31 . 38 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 327 ... 292
M.T. Cranium ... 67 . 09 . 50 . 44 . 53 . 51 . 26 . 34 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 325 ... 299
Fionagus ......... 29 . 21 . 39 . 38 . 48 . 43 . 41 . 72 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 310 ... 281
Rebelbrowser ... -- . 23 . 63 . 46 . -- . 41 . 41 . 34 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 248* .. 248*
Hellboy99 ....... 19 . 38 . 45 . 47 . 66 . 39 . 34 . 30 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 299 ... 269
Nacho Libre .... 37 . 15 . 49 . 49 . 40 . 52 . 38 . 32 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 297 ... 265
200motels ...... 31 . 27 . 49 . 38 . 33 . 52 . 57 . 22 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 287 ... 260
JD ................. 45 . 37 . 42 . 46 . 38 . 41 . 44 . 09 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 293 ... 256
Johnmac ......... -- . 10 . 33 . 40 . 58 . 50 . 23 . 43 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 257*.. 247
Dasa29 .......... 09 . 31 . 46 . 51 . 48 . 42 . 40 . 25 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 283 ... 258
Deep Easterly... 23 . 14 . 22 . 37 . 54 . 42 . 23 . 37 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 238 ... 216
Seafields ........ -- . 08 . 16 . 46 . 48 . 62 . 31 . 07 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 218* .. 211

(Please note, the AA totals will equal the annual totals for 7/8 entrants, and the entry there for 6/8 is statistically meaningless in comparison as it falls one entry short ... only the BB totals as of now are directly comparable to each other in all cases.)

Note also, I found two rather small addition errors in the annual race (these for Nilhg and Hellboy99). If I can't edit these the correct totals are 361 and 318).

DOCARCH · 24-09-2010 5:44am

Great work MT!

27-09-2010 11:13pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Great work MT!

+1 to that

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2010 4:49pm

I think that after the September scores come in, I will combine the two tables so that I can add in the later participants ... and at the end of the year I will certainly recognize a third category, best (highest) low score which would mean most consistent. So far I think Con Sensus is leading among those who have played all months.

The updated table will include the "all but two" column but now that you've had a chance to look at this one, I think we can drop the otherwise meaningless "all but one" score and replace it with the MTC average.

pauldry · 28-09-2010 10:23pm

Crikey MT where would we be without you?

Less interested in the daily goings on of the Irish Weather thats where!

M.T. Cranium · 29-09-2010 5:34am

As long as everyone is enjoying the forum, then I'm happy to help out. Anyway, there are some other heavy lifters around here on the forum, and in this contest area DE gives me a lot of assistance. He worked out the IMT "normal" values and updates the threads regularly. Over on the forecast side of things, there are several people who make regular contributions too, and when it comes time to look at 2011, maybe we can share the load in new ways, although I do think people might over-estimate how much time this all requires (the new table took a while but now it will be very simple to update).

29-09-2010 3:01pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

maybe we can share the load in new ways, although I do think people might over-estimate how much time this all requires (the new table took a while but now it will be very simple to update).

All the work you and others have put in is very much appreciated

I'm not working at present so I have some spare time and I'm happy to help out anyway I can. Feel free to drop a PM anytime

M.T. Cranium · 01-10-2010 4:07am

These are the current or formerly active contestants with at least four forecasts or active this month and at least once before. Scores have been checked and Pauldry has ten more points than previously. All of these partial scores will be blended into the next month's table so that people can compare their averages.

Mickger844posts ... -- . -- . -- . -- . 63 . 58 . 45 . 36 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 202/4 ... 50.5
Pauldry ............... -- . -- . -- . 37 . 42 . 35 . 50 . 54 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 218/5 ... 43.6
Talkabout ............ -- . -- . 56 . 39 . 41 . 56 . 25 . -- . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 217/5 ... 43.4
waterways ........... -- . -- . -- . 44 . -- . -- . 54 . 32 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 130/3 ... 43.3
The Inquisitor ....... -- . 34 . 43 . -- . -- . -- . -- . 49 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 126/3 ... 42.0
Cherryghost ......... 20 . 37 . 33 . 59 . -- . -- . -- . -- . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 149/4 ... 37.3
WolfeIRE .............. 30 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 37 . 35 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 102/3 ... 34.0
Homolumo ............ -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 38 . 22 . ?? . ?? . ?? . ?? ... 60/2 ... 30.0

If you are one of the above, check my entries against your own ... I was having a cold one while doing this.

M.T. Cranium · 01-10-2010 11:52am

September scoring:

Forecaster ......... IMT ... max ... min ... rain ... sun ... bonus
_________________________________________________________

Actual values ..... 13.6 ... 22.6 ... +1.0 .. 149 .. 104 ... 1.8 .... (totals)

pauldry .............. 20 ..... 18 ..... 14 ..... 13 ..... 06 ..... 00 .... 71
Sponge Bob ........ 23 ..... 12 ..... 18 ..... 01 ..... 06 ..... 07 .... 67
WolfeIRE ............ 21 ..... 11 ..... 15 ..... 01 ..... 09 ..... 10 .... 67
nacho libre ......... 13 ..... 11 ..... 13 ..... 12 ..... 07 ..... 02 .... 58
Deep Easterly ..... 22 ..... 00 ..... 19 ..... 02 ..... 08 ..... 07 .... 58
Danno ............... 14 ..... 14 ..... 08 ..... 12 ..... 07 ..... 00 .... 55

Con Sensus ....... 17 ..... 16 ..... 05 ..... 01 ..... 10 ..... 03 .... 52

jd .................... 20 ..... 15 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 08 ..... 05 .... 51
Jerry Seinfeld ..... 17 ..... 16 ..... 05 ..... 04 ..... 08 ..... 00 .... 50
Rebelbrowser ...... 23 ..... 18 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 01 .... 50
waterways ......... 12 ..... 10 ..... 00 ..... 14 ..... 06 ..... 08 .... 50
mickger844posts.. 20 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 09 .... 43
kindredspirit ....... 12 ..... 16 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 00 .... 42
200motels .......... 18 ..... 05 ..... 04 ..... 02 ..... 06 ..... 07 .... 42
Su Campu .......... 17 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 02 .... 42
gothwalk ........... 06 ..... 14 ..... 13 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 42
DOCARCH ........... 19 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 04 .... 41
Fionagus ............ 16 ..... 05 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 06 .... 41
The Inquisitor ..... 04 ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 07 ..... 03 .... 38
thetonynator ...... 14 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 04 .... 36
talkabout ........... 10 ..... 10 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 08 ..... 06 .... 36
nilhg .................. 16 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 .... 10 .... 35
Joe Public ........... 22 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 04 .... 09 .... 35
SeaFields ........... 10 ..... 09 ..... 04 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 03 .... 34
skipz ................. 16 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 06 ..... 02 .... 33
Strasser ............ 14 ..... 08 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 01 .... 32
hellboy99 ........... 18 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 09 ..... 01 .... 31
dasa29 .............. 17 ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 02 .... 31
M.T. Cranium ...... 24 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 00 .... 30
John mac ........... 19 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 03 .... 29
redsunset .......... 06 ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 00 .... 29
homolumo .......... 19 ..... 01 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 01 .... 28
dolanbaker ......... 08 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 04 ..... 09 .... 26

For once, the mercy rule was not needed to keep the scoring on pace, although the monthly minimum was close. Congrats to Pauldry, followed by Sponge Bob and Wolfe IRE leading the pack, and DE moving ahead of Con Sensus with Danno and Nacho Libre (a lot of western talent doing well this month for some reason). I shall update the annual scoring race as soon as possible.

Su Campu · 01-10-2010 12:10pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

September scoring:

Forecaster ......... IMT ..... max ..... min ..... rain ..... sun ..... bonus
_________________________________________________________

Actual values ..... 13.6 ..... 22.6 ..... +1.0 ..... 149 ..... 104 ..... 1.8

pauldry .............. 20 ..... 18 ..... 14 ..... 13 ..... 06 ..... 00 .... 71
Sponge Bob ........ 23 ..... 12 ..... 18 ..... 01 ..... 06 ..... 07 .... 67
WolfeIRE ............ 21 ..... 11 ..... 15 ..... 01 ..... 09 ..... 10 .... 67
nacho libre ......... 13 ..... 11 ..... 13 ..... 12 ..... 07 ..... 02 .... 58
Deep Easterly ..... 22 ..... 00 ..... 19 ..... 02 ..... 08 ..... 07 .... 58
Danno ............... 14 ..... 14 ..... 08 ..... 12 ..... 07 ..... 00 .... 55

Con Sensus ....... 17 ..... 16 ..... 05 ..... 01 ..... 10 ..... 03 .... 52

jd .................... 20 ..... 15 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 08 ..... 05 .... 51
Jerry Seinfeld ..... 17 ..... 16 ..... 05 ..... 04 ..... 08 ..... 00 .... 50
Rebelbrowser ...... 23 ..... 18 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 01 .... 50
waterways ......... 12 ..... 10 ..... 00 ..... 14 ..... 06 ..... 08 .... 50
mickger844posts.. 20 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 09 .... 43
kindredspirit ....... 12 ..... 16 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 00 .... 42
200motels .......... 18 ..... 05 ..... 04 ..... 02 ..... 06 ..... 07 .... 42
Su Campu .......... 17 ..... 05 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 02 .... 42
gothwalk ........... 06 ..... 14 ..... 13 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 42
DOCARCH ........... 19 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 04 .... 41
Fionagus ............ 16 ..... 05 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 07 ..... 06 .... 41
The Inquisitor ..... 04 ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 07 ..... 03 .... 38
thetonynator ...... 14 ..... 09 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 04 .... 36
talkabout ........... 10 ..... 10 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 08 ..... 06 .... 36
nilhg .................. 16 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 .... 10 .... 35
Joe Public ........... 22 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 04 .... 09 .... 35
SeaFields ........... 10 ..... 09 ..... 04 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 03 .... 34
skipz ................. 16 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 06 ..... 02 .... 33
Strasser ............ 14 ..... 08 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 01 .... 32
hellboy99 ........... 18 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 09 ..... 01 .... 31
dasa29 .............. 17 ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 02 .... 31
M.T. Cranium ...... 24 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 00 .... 30
John mac ........... 19 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 03 .... 29
redsunset .......... 06 ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 ..... 00 .... 29
homolumo .......... 19 ..... 01 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 07 ..... 01 .... 28
dolanbaker ......... 08 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 05 ..... 04 ..... 09 .... 26

For once, the mercy rule was not needed to keep the scoring on pace, although the monthly minimum was close. Congrats to Pauldry, followed by Sponge Bob and Wolfe IRE leading the pack, and DE moving ahead of Con Sensus with Danno and Nacho Libre (a lot of western talent doing well this month for some reason). I shall update the annual scoring race as soon as possible.

GO TO BED MT, you've done more than enough for one day....and night!!!

M.T. Cranium · 01-10-2010 1:52pm

Annual Scoring Table (revised and updated)
_________________________

FCSTR ............... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D ... best 7 ... total ... avg .... rankings

Jerry Seinfeld ... -- . 57 . 52 . 74 . 22 . 48 . 71 . 55 . 50 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 407 ... 429(8) ... 53.6 ... 1 --- 1
Joe Public ........ 77 . 39 . 46 . 83 . 30 . 62 . 58 . 36 . 35 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 395 ... 466(9) ... 51.8 ... 2 . 2 . 4
Danno ............. 45 . 51 . 42 . 39 . 47 . 59 . 72 . 64 . 55 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 393 ... 474(9) ... 52.7 ... 3 . 1 . 2
DOCARCH ........ 62 . 28 . 55 . 64 . 60 . 33 . 33 . 55 . 41 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 370 ... 431(9) ... 47.9 ... 4 . 4 . 7
thetonynator .... -- . -- . 59 . 65 . 42 . 53 . 55 . 55 . 36 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 365 ... 365(7) ... 52.1 ... 5 --- 3
Nilhg ............... 33 . 13 . 64 . 50 . 76 . 32 . 51 . 42 . 35 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 351 ... 396(9) ... 44.0 ... 6 10 13

Con Sensus ..... 35 . 39 . 58 . 53 . 46 . 49 . 49 . 39 . 52 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 346... 420(9) ... 46.7 ... 7 . 5 . 8

Redsunset ....... 32 . 37 . 71 . 45 . 62 . 33 . 65 . 32 . 29 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 345 ... 406(9) ... 45.1 ... 7 . 6 . 9
Strasser .......... 47 . 34 . 42 . 63 . 38 . 27 . 63 . 58 . 32 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 345 ... 404(9) ... 44.9 ... 8 . 7 . 11
Kindred Spirit ... 47 . 28 . 59 . 57 . 42 . 49 . 38 . 47 . 42 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 343 ... 409(9) ... 45.3 ... 9 . 5 . 8
Su Campu ....... 38 . 35 . 40 . 54 . 72 . 50 . 31 . 38 . 42 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 334 ... 400(9) ... 44.4 ... 10 10 12
M.T. Cranium ... 67 . 09 . 50 . 44 . 53 . 51 . 26 . 34 . 30 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 329 ... 364(9) ... 40.4 ... 11 13 19
Nacho Libre ..... 37 . 15 . 49 . 49 . 40 . 52 . 38 . 32 . 58 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 323 ... 370(9) ... 41.1 ... 12 12 17
Fionagus ......... 29 . 21 . 39 . 38 . 48 . 43 . 41 . 72 . 41 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 322 ... 372(9) ... 41.3 ... 13 11 16
JD ................. 45 . 37 . 42 . 46 . 38 . 41 . 44 . 09 . 51 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 307 ... 353(9) ... 39.2 ... 14 14 20
200motels ...... 31 . 27 . 49 . 38 . 33 . 52 . 57 . 22 . 42 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 302 ... 351(9) ... 39.0 ... 15 15 21
Hellboy99 ....... 19 . 38 . 45 . 47 . 66 . 39 . 34 . 30 . 31 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 300 ... 349(9) ... 38.8 ... 16 16 22
Rebelbrowser ... -- . 23 . 63 . 46 . -- . 41 . 41 . 34 . 50 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 298 ... 298(7) ... 42.6 ... 17 -- 13
Dasa29 .......... 09 . 31 . 46 . 51 . 48 . 42 . 40 . 25 . 31 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 289 ... 323(9) ... 35.9 ... 18 18 24
Johnmac ......... -- . 10 . 33 . 40 . 58 . 50 . 23 . 43 . 29 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 276 ... 286(8) ... 35.7 ... 19 -- 25
Deep Easterly... 23 . 14 . 22 . 37 . 54 . 42 . 23 . 37 . 58 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 274 ... 310(9) ... 34.4 ... 20 19 26
Seafields ......... -- . 08 . 16 . 46 . 48 . 62 . 31 . 07 . 34 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 245 ... 252(8) ... 31.5 ... 21 -- 27

(only ranked for average)

Mickger844posts . -- . -- . -- . -- . 63 . 58 . 45 . 36 . 43 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 245/5 ... 49.0 ............ -- -- 5
Pauldry ............. -- . -- . -- . 37 . 42 . 35 . 50 . 54 . 72 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 290/6 ... 48.3 ............ -- -- 6
Talkabout .......... -- . -- . 56 . 39 . 41 . 56 . 25 . -- . 36 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 253/6 ... 42.2 ............ -- -- 15
waterways ......... -- . -- . -- . 44 . -- . -- . 54 . 32 . 50 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 180/4 ... 45.0 ............ -- -- 10
The Inquisitor ..... -- . 34 . 43 . -- . -- . -- . -- . 49 . 38 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 164/4 ... 41.0 ............ -- -- 18
Cherryghost ....... 20 . 37 . 33 . 59 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 149/4 ... 37.3 ............ -- -- 23
WolfeIRE ............ 30 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 37 . 35 . 67 . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 169/4 ... 42.3 ............ -- -- 14
Homolumo ........... -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 38 . 22 . 28 . ?? . ?? . ?? ... 88/3 ... 29.3 ............ -- -- 28

As you'll see this table is somewhat different from the previous ones, it has been ranked by "best seven" of the nine scores to keep track of the main competition. Anyone who has been playing fairly regularly but not eligible for this part is now in a separate section at the bottom of the table, but their rank for average is shown. Ranks are for three separate orders of merit, first the annual competition, then the MTC award (you need to be in all months to qualify) and then the average for however many you have played. I will add one-time September entrants if they attain two more contests. Obviously the ranking of averages is a bit of a random process because some months score generally higher or lower but it gives another measure to compare. Note that I didn't rank Con Sensus to preserve actual contestants' ranks, but Con Sensus would be sitting 7th, 5th and 8th in the three rankings. (edit -- I added these ranks to the table but note that anyone below consensus is ranked as if that rank did not exist).

So congrats to Jerry Seinfeld who is leading both the annual and the average contests, and to Danno who is now leading the MTC field among those playing all months (as well as moving up to 2nd in the average, and 3rd in the main contest behind Joe Public in second there). The Tonynator has slipped a bit to third in the average, and fifth in the annual contest where he's at a disadvantage having no "mulligans" so it's really an excellent showing. Rebelbrowser is another player still in that race with two missing months so no "mulligans." DOCARCH is certainly in the hunt for all three contests as well with two fourth place rankings. Nilhg is the other player ahead of Con Sensus. Then there is a solid pack just behind Con Sensus that continue to keep pace (while I fall back).

Note in the last group, Mickger844posts, Pauldry and waterways are showing well on the average rank, which is the only part of this contest they can score in under the rules.

Hope you can follow my chart and feel free to pose any questions or note any errors (I may have a second look at it later). :cool:

Edit -- I had a second look, and fixed up the columns a bit. Executive decision -- a person must play at least four times to rank in the "average" column. That means that all first-time forecasters in September must enter the three remaining months and then they get into this part of the contest.

Note also I have gone over my math on the averages and found a few minor errors so you may want to look again to see your position. Just to explain, the three ranks are

(a) annual competition for those entering at least seven months, dropping two lowest scores
(b) annual "MTC" competition for those entering all months only, based on total score
(c) comparing averages of all active players (active from now on defined as having at least four months as of October to end of year)

SeaFields · 01-10-2010 2:45pm

Even after all the splitting of tables and reorganising I'm still in last place

:pac:

Ah well. Well done MT. Great work.

M.T. Cranium · 01-10-2010 9:03pm

I quite often notice here and on other forums, when people join in these monthly forecasts they quite often start out near the bottom of the table -- this is to some extent a guessing game but the more seasoned hands tend to know the ranges that guesses might verify and so you'll find your scores usually tend to drift up at least into the average range after a bit of practice. Now that might not apply to first-timers who also have a background in weather (even if it's not professional) but I thank God or whoever that Danno always enters near the deadline, or we just wouldn't have a contest at all (half the field would just copy him).

Near the top of the table, there has to be some skill involved because the same people keep appearing there. And our consensus would provide on the whole some reasonably good long range forecasts. I should look into the average of our top ten forecasters each month and see what score that would generate. Perhaps a project for somebody else if they have a bit of time.

I encourage people to stay with this and not be too concerned about rank, because you'll find that it makes you more aware of forecast potential from the large-scale climate clues that are always out there, some of them in the form of available products but perhaps more significantly just from your own feel for the way a pattern is evolving. As we've seen in 2010, trends come and go, we've had cold/dry, mild/wet, warm/dry, warm/wet and cool/wet followed by some cool/dry and now back to mild/wet on the broad scale.

pauldry · 01-10-2010 11:56pm

All very interesting. Ive had my "fluke" month but celebrated my glory with a large bag of peanut M&Ms (perhaps ate them too fast - belch).:D I do tell people what boards think the weather will be like for a month e.g if someone asks do you think it will be wet this month I say well boards are forecasting a wet one. Some say who??!! And I just say ya know boards.ie and then they know.

Those tables are great work and may I also praise DE for those charts that are put up during the course of the month. As my niece would say "class".

One final question..Is consensus a person or an average of everyones forecasts or is it just someone wearing a helmet with clouds on it like a weather "Stig"?:cool:

Joe Public · 02-10-2010 12:02am

Speaking of Danno, did he miss the "no penalty" boat for October?

It might be interesting to compare the contestants' IMT, sun% & rain% to the actual monthly averages and have another entry just like Con Sensus.

M.T. Cranium · 02-10-2010 12:27am

Normal would be well below consensus if entered. The problem would be the bonus questions which sometimes have a known bias from normal and where normal would score very low but not in a random way. I could throw that in for 2011 but don't think I could replicate it now for 2010 except to say that the average would be at least 5% below consensus and maybe as much as 8-10 per cent below. Take January for example where most contestants guessed at least somewhere below normal in general. Normal would have probably been hard pressed to score 30 there, or June where it was looking warm and dry to many. Then on the bonus questions, if they deal with days before the 10th of the month and the models are leaning towards something not like the climatology, then would we go with what is "normal" for that pattern or just the background normal which has already lost some to the actual pattern in terms of being likely to verify (and which most of the guesses will avoid). Bonus questions further into the month are really guesses that test the normal expectation more.

Usually consensus is a stiffer test than normal in a weather forecasting contest of any kind. When normal beats consensus then everyone has taken a wrong turn in general. I think that may have happened with July sunshine.

As to Danno, yes he may have missed the penalty free phase of October, but our penalty is rather benign, just to remind people what it is -- you can lose points above 60 up to ten per cent of the total, if that keeps you above 60. In other words, 61-66 become 60, 70 becomes 63, 80 becomes 72 etc. My reasoning there was that most forecasts would not benefit much from one extra day but we would penalize the higher scores just because those would be more likely to have benefitted.

Danno · 09-10-2010 1:33pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

As to Danno, yes he may have missed the penalty free phase of October,

Damn 30 days in September caught me off guard!

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2010 8:06pm

Final report on October scoring ...

Forecaster ....... IMT ... max ... min ... rain ... sun ....Val 9th
_________________________________________________________

Actuial values .... 10.1 ... 20.6 .. -4.1 ... 080 ... 130 ... 19.4

SeaFields ........... 19 .... 19* .... 19 ...... 04* ..... 08 ..... 03 ..... 72
Danno* ............. 25 ..... 07* .... 00 ..... 12*...... 10 ..... 09 ..... 63=60
John mac ........... 23 ..... 00 ..... 18 ...... 06* .... 05 ..... 04 ..... 56
hellboy99 ........... 17 ..... 12*.... 14 ...... 02* .... 04 ..... 06 ..... 55
Su Campu .......... 20 ..... 06* .... 16 ..... 00 ...... 05 ..... 06 ..... 53
waterways ......... 19 ..... 17* .... 06 ..... 07* .... 04 ..... 00 ..... 53
Thetonynator ..... 21 ..... 08* ..... 01 .... 12*..... 05 ..... 05 ..... 52
mickger844posts . 20 ..... 04* ..... 01 .... 14*..... 05 ..... 07 ..... 51
DOCARCH ........... 18 .... 08* ..... 01 .... 12* ..... 04 ..... 08 ..... 51
M.T. Cranium ...... 15 .... 13*...... 12 .... 01* ..... 03 ..... 03 ..... 47
nilhg ................. 15 ..... 00 ...... 04 .... 12*...... 05 ..... 08 ..... 44
kindredspirit ....... 14 ..... 09*..... 09 ..... 00 ...... 04 ..... 06 ..... 42
jd ..................... 17 ..... 02*.... 16 ..... 02* ..... 04 ..... 01 ..... 42
talkabout ........... 21 ..... 00 ..... 15 ..... 04* ..... 01 ..... 00 ..... 41
gothwalk ........... 24 ..... 00 ...... 09 ..... 04* ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 41
Rebelbrowser ...... 17 ..... 00 ..... 13 ..... 03* ..... 05 ..... 00 ..... 38
Fionagus ............ 17 ..... 00 ..... 17 ..... 00 ...... 01 ..... 00 ..... 35

Con Sensus ........ 17 ..... 01*..... 07 ..... 03* .... 03 ..... 03 ..... 34

homolumo .......... 21 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 04* ..... 01 ..... 00 ..... 34
jambofc* ........... 11 ..... 07*.... 00 ..... 00 ....... 05 ..... 10 ..... 33
Joe Public .......... 13 ..... 00 ..... 08 ..... 01* ..... 03 ..... 08 ..... 33
Strasser ............ 15 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 02* ..... 02 ..... 09 ..... 31
Sponge Bob ........ 18 .... 04* .... 01 ..... 00 ...... 05 ..... 03 ..... 31
The Inquisitor ..... 16 ..... 01*.... 11 ..... 00 ...... 02 ..... 00 ..... 30
nacho libre ......... 22 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 02* .... 01 ..... 00 ..... 28
redsunset .......... 14 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ...... 03 ..... 10 ..... 27
Jerry Seinfeld ..... 18 ..... 01* .... 00 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 02 ..... 21
WolfeIRE ........... 01 ..... 06* .... 09 ..... 00 ...... 01 ..... 01 ..... 18
pauldry ............. 13 ..... 02* .... 01 ..... 00 ...... 02 ..... 00 ..... 18
dasa29 ............. 16 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ..... 16
200motels ......... 11 ..... 00 ...... 05 ..... 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ..... 16

Congrats to Seafields, for a fine showing in October, and to Danno for managing second place despite a penalty of three points.

Heading on to update the annual scoring race.

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2010 9:01pm

Update on annual scoring table
______________________________

FCSTR ............... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D ... best 8 ... total ... avg .... rankings

Danno ............. 45 . 51 . 42 . 39 . 47 . 59 . 72 . 64 . 55 . 60 . ?? . ?? .. 453 ... 534(10) .. 53.4 ... 1 . 1 . 1
Joe Public ........ 77 . 39 . 46 . 83 . 30 . 62 . 58 . 36 . 35 . 33 . ?? . ?? .. 430 ... 499(10) .. 49.9 ... 2 . 2 . 4
Jerry Seinfeld ... -- . 57 . 52 . 74 . 22 . 48 . 71 . 55 . 50 . 21 . ?? . ?? .. 429 ... 450(9) ... 50.0 ... 3 --- 3
DOCARCH ........ 62 . 28 . 55 . 64 . 60 . 33 . 33 . 55 . 41 . 51 . ?? . ?? .. 421 ... 482(10) .. 48.2 ... 4 . 3 . 6
thetonynator .... -- . -- . 59 . 65 . 42 . 53 . 55 . 55 . 36 . 52 . ?? . ?? .. 417 ... 417(8) ... 52.1 ... 5 --- 2
Nilhg ............... 33 . 13 . 64 . 50 . 76 . 32 . 51 . 42 . 35 . 44 . ?? . ?? .. 395 ... 440(10) .. 44.0 ... 6 . 6 . 10
Kindred Spirit ... 47 . 28 . 59 . 57 . 42 . 49 . 38 . 47 . 42 . 42 . ?? . ?? .. 385 ... 451(10) .. 45.1 ... 7 . 5 . 9
Su Campu ....... 38 . 35 . 40 . 54 . 72 . 50 . 31 . 38 . 42 . 53 . ?? . ?? .. 387 ... 453(10) .. 45.3 ... 8 . 4 . 8

Con Sensus ..... 35 . 39 . 58 . 53 . 46 . 49 . 49 . 39 . 52 . 34 . ?? . ?? .. 380... 454(10) .. 45.4 ... 9 . 4 . 8

Redsunset ....... 32 . 37 . 71 . 45 . 62 . 33 . 65 . 32 . 29 . 27 . ?? . ?? .. 377 ... 433(10) .. 43.3 ... 9 . 8 13
M.T. Cranium ... 67 . 09 . 50 . 44 . 53 . 51 . 26 . 34 . 30 . 47 . ?? . ?? .. 376 ... 413(10) .. 41.3 ... 10 . 9 16
Strasser .......... 47 . 34 . 42 . 63 . 38 . 27 . 63 . 58 . 32 . 31 . ?? . ?? .. 367 ... 435(10) .. 43.5 ... 11 . 7 12
Fionagus ......... 29 . 21 . 39 . 38 . 48 . 43 . 41 . 72 . 41 . 35 . ?? . ?? .. 357 ... 407(10) .. 41.3 ... 12 10 16
Hellboy99 ........ 19 . 38 . 45 . 47 . 66 . 39 . 34 . 30 . 31 . 55 . ?? . ?? .. 355 ... 404(10) .. 40.4 ... 13 11 18
Nacho Libre ..... 37 . 15 . 49 . 49 . 40 . 52 . 38 . 32 . 58 . 28 . ?? . ?? .. 355 ... 398(10) .. 39.8 ... 14 12 19
JD ................. 45 . 37 . 42 . 46 . 38 . 41 . 44 . 09 . 51 . 42 . ?? . ?? .. 349 ... 395(10) ... 39.5 ... 15 13 20
Rebelbrowser .... -- . 23 . 63 . 46 . -- . 41 . 41 . 34 . 50 . 38 . ?? . ?? .. 336 ... 336(8) ... 42.0 ... 16 -- 14
Johnmac .......... -- . 10 . 33 . 40 . 58 . 50 . 23 . 43 . 29 . 56 . ?? . ?? .. 332 ... 342(9) ... 38.0 ... 17 -- 22
200motels ....... 31 . 27 . 49 . 38 . 33 . 52 . 57 . 22 . 42 . 16 . ?? . ?? .. 329 ... 367(10) .. 36.7 ... 18 14 25
Seafields .......... -- . 08 . 16 . 46 . 48 . 62 . 31 . 07 . 34 . 72 . ?? . ?? .. 317 ... 324(9) ... 36.0 ... 19 -- 26
Dasa29 ............ 09 . 31 . 46 . 51 . 48 . 42 . 40 . 25 . 31 . 16 . ?? . ?? .. 314 ... 339(10) .. 33.9 ... 20 15 28
Deep Easterly.... 23 . 14 . 22 . 37 . 54 . 42 . 23 . 37 . 58 . -- . ?? . ?? .. 296 ... 310(9) ... 34.4 ... 21 19 27

(only ranked for average)

Mickger844posts . -- . -- . -- . -- . 63 . 58 . 45 . 36 . 43 . 51 . ?? . ?? .. 296/6 ... 49.3 ............ -- -- 5
waterways ......... -- . -- . -- . 44 . -- . -- . 54 . 32 . 50 . 53 . ?? . ?? .. 233/5 ... 46.6 ............ -- -- 7
Pauldry ............. -- . -- . -- . 37 . 42 . 35 . 50 . 54 . 72 . 18 . ?? . ?? .. 308/7 ... 44.0 ............ -- -- 10
Talkabout .......... -- . -- . 56 . 39 . 41 . 56 . 25 . -- . 36 . 41 . ?? . ?? .. 294/7 ... 42.0 ............ -- -- 14
The Inquisitor ..... -- . 34 . 43 . -- . -- . -- . -- . 49 . 38 . 30 . ?? . ?? .. 194/5 ... 38.8 ............ -- -- 21
Cherryghost ....... 20 . 37 . 33 . 59 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . ?? . ?? . ?? .. 149/4 ... 37.3 ............ -- -- 23
WolfeIRE ............ 30 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 37 . 35 . 67 . 18 . ?? . ?? .. 187/5 ... 37.4 ............ -- -- 24
Homolumo ........... -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 38 . 22 . 28 . 34 . ?? . ?? .. 122/4 ... 30.5 ............ -- -- 29

Congrats to Danno who has now moved into first place in all three categories. The race is tight however and much will depend on these last two months. Several people in the "chase pack" moved up and two moved past Con Sensus. Mickger844posts has kept pace in the average category, and I will add Gothwalk to the table at the end of the year if he has four forecasts in by then.

The three ranking stats are for these three competitions:

-- Annual best score for 10/12 (Boards.ie award)
-- Annual best score for 12/12 (MTC award)
-- best average for all contestants with 4+ entries

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2010 6:03pm

November scores ...
___________________________

Forecaster ......... IMT ... max .. min .. rain .. sun .. wind
_______________________________________________________________

Actual .............. 5.1 .. 17.1 .. -9.1 .. 131 ... 139 ... 70 ... Total score

M.T. Cranium ..... 16 .... 20 .... 10* ... 10 .... 08 .... 00 .... 64
homolumo ......... 09 .... 17 .... 12* ... 14 .... 05 .... 00 .... 57
SeaFields .......... 14 .... 16 .... 07* ... 11 .... 00 .... 00 .... 48
WolfeIRE ........... 08 .... 07 .... 15* ... 14 .... 02 .... 00 .... 46
hellboy99 .......... 08 .... 20 .... 03* ... 06 .... 01 .... 07 .... 45
pauldry ............. 00 .... 20 .... 00 .... 13 .... 02 .... 09 .... 44
dasa29 ............. 03 .... 11 .... 06* ... 13 .... 01 .... 10 .... 44
Joe Public .......... 07 .... 18 .... 00 .... 12 .... 02 .... 01 .... 40
jambofc ............ 04 .... 08 .... 00 .... 11 .... 09 .... 08 .... 40
TheInquisitor ..... 24 .... 00 .... 10* ... 00 .... 05 .... 00 .... 39
nacho libre ........ 09 .... 18 .... 00 .... 10 .... 00 .... 01 .... 38
talkabout .......... 09 .... 15 .... 00 .... 02 .... 03 .... 09 .... 38
mickger844post .. 13 .... 07 .... 03* .. 01 .... 04 .... 10 .... 38
cherryghost ....... 01 .... 13 .... 03* .. 08 .... 03 .... 08 .... 36
jd .................... 05 .... 17 .... 00 .... 05 .... 01 .... 08 .... 36

Con Sensus ........ 06 .... 12 .... 00 .... 08 .... 01 .... 09 .... 36

Jerry Seinfeld ..... 06 .... 09 .... 00 .... 10 .... 00 .... 10 .... 35
Sponge Bob ....... 05 .... 10 .... 00 .... 08 .... 07 .... 05 .... 35
Fionagus ........... 07 .... 07 .... 03* ... 00 .... 07 .... 10 .... 34
John mac .......... 05 .... 12 .... 04* ... 08 .... 01 .... 04 .... 34
Strasser ............ 00 .... 09 .... 00 .... 14 .... 00 .... 10 .... 33
thetonynator ..... 08 .... 09 .... 00 .... 06 .... 00 .... 05 .... 28
DOCARCH .......... 08 .... 11 .... 00 .... 07 .... 01 .... 00 .... 27
Rebelbrowser ..... 00 .... 15 .... 00 .... 06 .... 01 .... 05 .... 27
nilhg ................. 04 .... 11 .... 00 .... 11 .... 00 .... 01 .... 27
200motels ......... 17 .... 00 .... 00 .... 03 .... 00 .... 06 .... 26
Danno ............... 04 .... 15 .... 05* .. 01 .... 00 .... 00 .... 25
Redsunset ......... 06 .... 09 .... 00 .... 08 .... 02 .... 00 .... 25
Su Campu ......... 10 .... 10 .... 00 .... 00 .... 01 .... 00 .... 21
Deep Easterly .... 00 .... 18 .... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 01 .... 19
gothwalk .......... 05 .... 00 .... 00 .... 01 .... 04 .... 08 .... 18
kindredspirit ....... 06 .... 09 .... 01* .. 02 .... 00 .... 00 .... 18

* indicates that minimum scoring rule (mercy rule) was applied.

Congrats to homolumo as well as some other guy for leading the way this month. Note the oddity that all four of the leading November scorers had nothing from the bonus question. By the way, I scored the bonus somewhat more leniently than rank order alone, I noticed that most people were fairly close so I gave points from your departure from 70 kts (one point off per kt error). So anyone between 61 and 79 kts scored something.

Congrats also to The Inquisitor for his very close guess on the rapidly falling IMT -- he didn't get very lucky on the rest of the questions.

I shall now proceed to the annual scoring race which obviously is going to tighten up big time from these numbers. The leaders can see the stadium, but can they reach the finish line? Can anyone? Stay tuned for the dramatic answers to these and other questions when I get around to it, about an hour from now maybe the annual table will be updated.

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2010 8:08pm

Update on annual scoring table ...

FCSTR ............... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D ... best 9 ... total ... avg .... rankings

Danno ............. 45 . 51 . 42 . 39 . 47 . 59 . 72 . 64 . 55 . 60 . 25 . ?? .. 495 ... 559(11) .. 50.8 ... 1 . 1 . 1
Joe Public ........ 77 . 39 . 46 . 83 . 30 . 62 . 58 . 36 . 35 . 33 . 40 . ?? .. 470 ... 539(11) .. 49.0 ... 2 . 2 . 3
Jerry Seinfeld ... -- . 57 . 52 . 74 . 22 . 48 . 71 . 55 . 50 . 21 . 35 . ?? .. 464 ... 450(10) .. 45.0 ... 3 --- 7
DOCARCH ........ 62 . 28 . 55 . 64 . 60 . 33 . 33 . 55 . 41 . 51 . 27 . ?? .. 454 ... 509(11) .. 46.3 ... 4 . 3 . 6
thetonynator .... -- . -- . 59 . 65 . 42 . 53 . 55 . 55 . 36 . 52 . 28 . ?? .. 445 ... 445(9) ... 49.4 ... 5 --- 2
M.T. Cranium ... 67 . 09 . 50 . 44 . 53 . 51 . 26 . 34 . 30 . 47 . 64 . ?? .. 440 ... 475(11) .. 43.2 ... 6 . 4 . 9
Nilhg ............... 33 . 13 . 64 . 50 . 76 . 32 . 51 . 42 . 35 . 44 . 27 . ?? .. 427 ... 467(11) .. 42.5 ... 7 . 8 . 12
Kindred Spirit ... 47 . 28 . 59 . 57 . 42 . 49 . 38 . 47 . 42 . 42 . 18 . ?? .. 423 ... 469(11) .. 42.6 ... 8 . 6 . 11
Su Campu ....... 38 . 35 . 40 . 54 . 72 . 50 . 31 . 38 . 42 . 53 . 21 . ?? .. 422 ... 474(11) .. 43.1 ... 9 . 5 . 10

Con Sensus ..... 35 . 39 . 58 . 53 . 46 . 49 . 49 . 39 . 52 . 34 . 36 . ?? .. 416... 490(11) .. 44.5 ... 10 4 . 8

Redsunset ....... 32 . 37 . 71 . 45 . 62 . 33 . 65 . 32 . 29 . 27 . 25 . ?? .. 406 ... 458(11) .. 41.6 ... 10 . 9 13
Strasser .......... 47 . 34 . 42 . 63 . 38 . 27 . 63 . 58 . 32 . 31 . 33 . ?? .. 400 ... 468(11) .. 42.5 ... 11 . 7 12
Hellboy99 ........ 19 . 38 . 45 . 47 . 66 . 39 . 34 . 30 . 31 . 55 . 45 . ?? .. 400 ... 449(11) .. 40.8 ... 11 10 15
Nacho Libre ..... 37 . 15 . 49 . 49 . 40 . 52 . 38 . 32 . 58 . 28 . 38 . ?? .. 393 ... 436(11) .. 39.6 ... 13 12 18
Fionagus ......... 29 . 21 . 39 . 38 . 48 . 43 . 41 . 72 . 41 . 35 . 34 . ?? .. 391 ... 441(11) .. 40.1 ... 14 11 17
JD ................. 45 . 37 . 42 . 46 . 38 . 41 . 44 . 09 . 51 . 42 . 36 . ?? .. 386 ... 431(11) ... 39.2 ... 15 13 19
Johnmac .......... -- . 10 . 33 . 40 . 58 . 50 . 23 . 43 . 29 . 56 . 34 . ?? .. 366 ... 376(10) ... 37.6 ... 16 -- 22
Seafields .......... -- . 08 . 16 . 46 . 48 . 62 . 31 . 07 . 34 . 72 . 48 . ?? .. 365 ... 372(10) .. 37.2 ... 17 -- 23
Rebelbrowser .... -- . 23 . 63 . 46 . -- . 41 . 41 . 34 . 50 . 38 . 27 . ?? .. 363 ... 363(9) ... 40.3 ... 18 -- 16
Dasa29 ............ 09 . 31 . 46 . 51 . 48 . 42 . 40 . 25 . 31 . 16 . 44 . ?? .. 358 ... 383(11) .. 34.8 ... 19 14 27
200motels ....... 31 . 27 . 49 . 38 . 33 . 52 . 57 . 22 . 42 . 16 . 26 . ?? .. 355 ... 393(11) .. 35.7 ... 20 13 26
Deep Easterly.... 23 . 14 . 22 . 37 . 54 . 42 . 23 . 37 . 58 . -- . 18 . ?? .. 314 ... 328(10) ... 32.8 ... 21 -- 28

(only ranked for average)

Mickger844posts . -- . -- . -- . -- . 63 . 58 . 45 . 36 . 43 . 51 . 38 . ?? .. 334/7 ... 47.7 ............ -- -- 4
waterways ......... -- . -- . -- . 44 . -- . -- . 54 . 32 . 50 . 53 . -- . ?? .. 233/5 ... 46.6 ............ -- -- 5
Pauldry ............. -- . -- . -- . 37 . 42 . 35 . 50 . 54 . 72 . 18 . 44 . ?? .. 352/8 ... 44.0 ............ -- -- 8
Talkabout .......... -- . -- . 56 . 39 . 41 . 56 . 25 . -- . 36 . 41 . 38 . ?? .. 332/8 ... 41.5 ............ -- -- 14
The Inquisitor ..... -- . 34 . 43 . -- . -- . -- . -- . 49 . 38 . 30 . 39 . ?? .. 233/6 ... 38.8 ............ -- -- 20
Cherryghost ....... 20 . 37 . 33 . 59 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . ?? . 36 . ?? .. 185/5 ... 37.0 ............ -- -- 24
WolfeIRE ............ 30 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 37 . 35 . 67 . 18 . 46 . ?? .. 233/6 ... 38.8 ............ -- -- 20
Homolumo ........... -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 38 . 22 . 28 . 34 . 57 . ?? .. 179/5 ... 35.8 ............ -- -- 25

The race has tightened up considerably and it would seem that December will decide the winners in all three categories that we are tracking. Danno is holding on to a slim lead over Joe Public in two categories and Thetonynator in the average score per month entered. Jerry Seinfeld and DOCARCH are in position to strike for a late win, and uh-oh, MTC has moved into the faint hope position after leading November. :eek:

The three rankings are for

** total score, best 9 of 11 so far
** total score for those in the all-months-entered (MTC challenge) race
** average score for anyone with at least four entries

Gothwalk, SpongeBob, jambofc and anyone else I missed, you'll be included in the final tables when you have four entries.

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2010 11:20am

Preliminary annual scoring table ... please do not comment, ranks are not final yet, scores may be slightly adjusted later ... check back around 5 January for final results.

FCSTR ............... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D ... best 10 .. total ... avg .... rankings

Danno ............. 45 . 51 . 42 . 39 . 47 . 59 . 72 . 64 . 55 . 60 . 25 . 55 .. 550 ... 614(12) .. 51.2 ... 1 . 1 . 1
Joe Public ........ 77 . 39 . 46 . 83 . 30 . 62 . 58 . 36 . 35 . 33 . 40 . 29 .. 509 ... 568(12) .. 49.0 ... 2 . 2 . 2
Jerry Seinfeld ... -- . 57 . 52 . 74 . 22 . 48 . 71 . 55 . 50 . 21 . 35 . 39 .. 503 ... 524(11) .. 47.6 ... 3 --- 4
M.T. Cranium ... 67 . 09 . 50 . 44 . 53 . 51 . 26 . 34 . 30 . 47 . 64 . 48 .. 488 ... 523(12) .. 43.6 ... 4 . 4 . 8
DOCARCH ........ 62 . 28 . 55 . 64 . 60 . 33 . 33 . 55 . 41 . 51 . 27 . 31 .. 485 ... 540(12) .. 45.0 ... 5 . 3 . 6
thetonynator .... -- . -- . 59 . 65 . 42 . 53 . 55 . 55 . 36 . 52 . 28 . 39 .. 484 ... 484(10) ... 48.4 ... 6 --- 3
Nilhg ............... 33 . 13 . 64 . 50 . 76 . 32 . 51 . 42 . 35 . 44 . 27 . 34 .. 461 ... 501(12) .. 41.8 ... 7 . 6 12

Con Sensus ..... 35 . 39 . 58 . 53 . 46 . 49 . 49 . 39 . 52 . 34 . 36 . 14 .. 456... 504(12) .. 42.0 ... 8 . 5 . 9

Su Campu ....... 38 . 35 . 40 . 54 . 72 . 50 . 31 . 38 . 42 . 53 . 21 . 28 .. 453 ... 502(12) .. 41.8 ... 8 . 5 . 9
Kindred Spirit ... 47 . 28 . 59 . 57 . 42 . 49 . 38 . 47 . 42 . 42 . 18 . 17 .. 451 ... 486(12) .. 40.5 ... 9 . 8 . 11
Strasser .......... 47 . 34 . 42 . 63 . 38 . 27 . 63 . 58 . 32 . 31 . 33 . 17 .. 441 ... 485(12) .. 40.4 ... 10 . 9 12
Redsunset ....... 32 . 37 . 71 . 45 . 62 . 33 . 65 . 32 . 29 . 27 . 25 . 32 .. 438 ... 490(12) .. 40.8 ... 11 . 7 10
Hellboy99 ........ 19 . 38 . 45 . 47 . 66 . 39 . 34 . 30 . 31 . 55 . 45 . 18 .. 430 ... 467(12) .. 38.9 ... 12 10 16
JD ................. 45 . 37 . 42 . 46 . 38 . 41 . 44 . 09 . 51 . 42 . 36 . 27 .. 422 ... 458(12) ... 38.2 ... 13 11 17
Nacho Libre ..... 37 . 15 . 49 . 49 . 40 . 52 . 38 . 32 . 58 . 28 . 38 . 21 .. 421 ... 457(12) .. 38.1 ... 14 12 18
Fionagus ......... 29 . 21 . 39 . 38 . 48 . 43 . 41 . 72 . 41 . 35 . 34 . 14 .. 420 ... 455(12) .. 37.9 ... 15 13 19
Rebelbrowser .... -- . 23 . 63 . 46 . -- . 41 . 41 . 34 . 50 . 38 . 27 . 39 .. 402 ... 402(10) ... 40.2 ... 16 -- 13
Seafields .......... -- . 08 . 16 . 46 . 48 . 62 . 31 . 07 . 34 . 72 . 48 . 20 .. 385 ... 392(11) .. 35.6 ... 17 -- 22
200motels ....... 31 . 27 . 49 . 38 . 33 . 52 . 57 . 22 . 42 . 16 . 26 . 27 .. 382 ... 420(12) .. 35.0 ... 18 14 23
Johnmac .......... -- . 10 . 33 . 40 . 58 . 50 . 23 . 43 . 29 . 56 . 34 . 08 .. 376 ... 384(11) ... 34.9 ... 19 -- 24
Dasa29 ............ 09 . 31 . 46 . 51 . 48 . 42 . 40 . 25 . 31 . 16 . 44 . 12 .. 374 ... 395(12) .. 32.9 ... 20 15 27
Deep Easterly.... 23 . 14 . 22 . 37 . 54 . 42 . 23 . 37 . 58 . -- . 18 . 29 .. 343 ... 357(11) ... 32.5 ... 21 -- 28

(only ranked for average)

waterways ......... -- . -- . -- . 44 . -- . -- . 54 . 32 . 50 . 53 . -- . 43 .. 276/6 ... 46.0 ............ -- -- 5
Mickger844posts . -- . -- . -- . -- . 63 . 58 . 45 . 36 . 43 . 51 . 38 . 16 .. 350/8 ... 43.8 ............ -- -- 7
The Inquisitor ..... -- . 34 . 43 . -- . -- . -- . -- . 49 . 38 . 30 . 39 . 49 .. 282/7 ... 40.3 ............ -- -- 13
Sponge Bob ........ -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 67 . 31 . 35 . 27 .. 160/4 ... 40.0 ............ -- -- 14
Pauldry ............. -- . -- . -- . 37 . 42 . 35 . 50 . 54 . 72 . 18 . 44 . 07 .. 359/9 ... 39.9 ............ -- -- 15
Talkabout .......... -- . -- . 56 . 39 . 41 . 56 . 25 . -- . 36 . 41 . 38 . 07 .. 339/9 ... 37.7 ............ -- -- 20
Gothwalk ............ -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 42 . 41 . 18 . 45 .. 146/4 ... 36.5 ............ -- -- 21
WolfeIRE ............ 30 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 37 . 35 . 67 . 18 . 46 . 10 .. 243/7 ... 34.7 ............ -- -- 25
Cherryghost ....... 20 . 37 . 33 . 59 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 36 . 19 .. 204/6 ... 34.0 ............ -- -- 26
Homolumo ........... -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 38 . 22 . 28 . 34 . 57 . 09 .. 188/6 ... 31.3 ............ -- -- 29
Jambofc ............. -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 33 . 40 . 18 ... 91/3 ... 30.3 ............. -- -- 30

Anyone with fewer than three entries will not be listed, hope you'll become a regular in 2011.

By the way, belated apologies, I made some editing errors last month, you can see for example I forgot to add in 35 for Jerry Seinfeld's total which should read 485/10 so he was sitting fourth in terms of average score. There were minor errors for Joe Public and Strasser, which I caught on this check. You'd be wise to add up your totals to see if you agree with my math. This may explain why one or two ranks in this preliminary final table are different than you might have expected (previous errors now corrected, in other words). As always, ranks for Con Sensus do not affect lower ranking contestants.

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2011 9:22pm

As mentioned in the December 2010 thread, final numbers are in, and the provisional scoring table is hereby adjusted to reflect these numbers:

FORECASTER ..... IMT ... MAX ... MIN .. PRC .. SUN ..25th .. SNOW
________________________________________________________________

Actual values .. -0.4 .. 12.9 ... -15.7 .. 059 .. 166 . -3.3/-12.2 .. N >> Totals

danno .............. 00 ..... 18 ..... 15 .... 13 .... 00 ..... 4/4 .... 0 .... 54
TheInquisitor .... 20 ...... 00 ..... 02 .... 15 .... 01 ..... 5/5 .... 0 .... 48
M.T. Cranium .... 10 ..... 01 ...... 08 .... 11 .... 09 ..... 5/4 .... 0 .... 48
Gothwalk ......... 12 ...... 00 ..... 14 .... 10 .... 00 ..... 5/4 .... 0 .... 45
waterways ....... 00 ..... 20 ..... 12 ..... 06 .... 00 ..... 2/0 .... 3 .... 43
Rebelbrowser .... 09 ..... 18 ..... 00 ..... 05 .... 00 ..... 3/4 .... 0 .... 39
Jerry Seinfeld .... 01 ..... 19 ..... 00 .... 10 .... 01 ..... 1/3 .... 3 .... 38
Thetonynator ... 08 ...... 00 ..... 10 .... 11 .... 01 ..... 1/3 .... 3 .... 37
Nilhg ............... 01 ..... 18 ..... 07 ..... 02 .... 00 ..... 1/1 .... 3 .... 33
DOCARCH ......... 00 ..... 19 ..... 01 ..... 05 .... 00 ..... 1/3 .... 3 .... 32
Redsunset* ...... 15 ..... 00 ..... 04 ..... 01 .... 03 ..... 2/5 .... 0 .... 30
Joe Public ......... 00 .... 20 ..... 06 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 0/0 .... 3 .... 29
Su Campu ......... 00 .... 20 ..... 00 ..... 03 .... 00 ..... 1/2 .... 3 .... 29
DeepEasterly ..... 00 .... 06 ..... 00 ..... 15 .... 07 ..... 0/0 .... 0 .... 28
Tae laidir .......... 00 .... 20 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 0/5 .... 3 .... 28
jd ................... 07 ..... 00 ..... 10 ..... 02 .... 00 ..... 4/3 .... 0 .... 26
Sponge Bob ...... 06 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 .... 04 ..... 2/1 .... 3 .... 25
200motels ........ 00 ..... 17 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 03 ..... 0/1 .... 3 .... 24
harry21 ........... 00 ..... 14 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 3/1 .....3 .... 21
nacho libre ....... 04 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 .... 03 ..... 1/1 .... 3 .... 20
SeaFields ......... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 15 .... 00 ..... 1/4 .... 0 .... 20
Cherryghost ..... 05 ..... 00 ..... 02 ..... 05 .... 00 ..... 3/4 .... 0 .... 19
Jambofc* ......... 00 ..... 03 ..... 00 ..... 01 .... 08 ..... 1/1 .... 3 .... 17
Strasser ........... 04 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 .... 01 ..... 0/0 .... 3 .... 17
hellboy99 ......... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 .... 00 ..... 1/3 .... 3 .... 16
kindredspirit ...... 00 ..... 03 ..... 00 ..... 08 .... 02 ..... 0/0 .... 3 .... 16
mickger844pst ... 02 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 09 .... 00 ..... 1/3 .... 0 .... 15
Fionagus .......... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 08 .... 00 ..... 1/3 .... 3 .... 15
baraca ............. 01 ..... 07 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 02 ..... 1/3 .... 0 .... 14

Con Sensus ...... 00 ..... 01 ..... 00 ..... 05 .... 00 ..... 1/3 .... 3 .... 13

dasa29 ............ 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 01 ..... 5/5 .... 0 .... 11
WolfeIRE .......... 00 ..... 00 ..... 06 ..... 00 .... 00 ..... 1/0 .... 3 .... 10
homolumo ........ 00 ...... 00 ..... 00 ..... 02 .... 02 ..... 1/3 .... 0 .... 08
John mac ......... 00 ..... 00 ..... 03 ..... 02 .... 02 ..... 0/0 .... 0 .... 07
talkabout ......... 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 02 .... 00 ..... 1/3 .... 0 .... 06
Pauldry ............ 00 ..... 01 ..... 00 ..... 00 .... 02 ..... 0/0 .... 3 .... 06

Watch for the final results of the annual competition shortly, as these will just require slight adjustments.

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2011 9:57pm

Boards.ie weather contests -- Final results -- 2010
________________________________________________________

FCSTR ............... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D ... best 10 .. total ... avg .... rankings

Danno ............. 45 . 51 . 42 . 39 . 47 . 59 . 72 . 64 . 55 . 60 . 25 . 54 .. 549 ... 613(12) .. 51.1 ... 1 . 1 . 1
Joe Public ........ 77 . 39 . 46 . 83 . 30 . 62 . 58 . 36 . 35 . 33 . 40 . 29 .. 509 ... 568(12) .. 49.0 ... 2 . 2 . 2
Jerry Seinfeld ... -- . 57 . 52 . 74 . 22 . 48 . 71 . 55 . 50 . 21 . 35 . 38 .. 502 ... 523(11) .. 47.5 ... 3 --- 4
M.T. Cranium .... 67 . 09 . 50 . 44 . 53 . 51 . 26 . 34 . 30 . 47 . 64 . 48 .. 488 ... 523(12) .. 43.6 ... 4 . 4 . 7
DOCARCH ......... 62 . 28 . 55 . 64 . 60 . 33 . 33 . 55 . 41 . 51 . 27 . 32 .. 486 ... 541(12) .. 45.1 ... 5 . 3 . 6
thetonynator .... -- . -- . 59 . 65 . 42 . 53 . 55 . 55 . 36 . 52 . 28 . 37 .. 482 ... 482(10) ... 48.2 ... 6 --- 3
Nilhg ............... 33 . 13 . 64 . 50 . 76 . 32 . 51 . 42 . 35 . 44 . 27 . 33 .. 460 ... 500(12) .. 41.7 ... 7 . 6 12
Su Campu ....... 38 . 35 . 40 . 54 . 72 . 50 . 31 . 38 . 42 . 53 . 21 . 29 .. 454 ... 503(12) .. 41.9 ... 8 . 5 . 9

Con Sensus ..... 35 . 39 . 58 . 53 . 46 . 49 . 49 . 39 . 52 . 34 . 36 . 13 .. 456... 503(12) .. 41.9 ... 8 . 5 . 9

Kindred Spirit ... 47 . 28 . 59 . 57 . 42 . 49 . 38 . 47 . 42 . 42 . 18 . 16 .. 450 ... 485(12) .. 40.4 ... 9 . 8 . 11
Strasser ......... 47 . 34 . 42 . 63 . 38 . 27 . 63 . 58 . 32 . 31 . 33 . 17 .. 441 ... 485(12) .. 40.4 ... 10 . 8 11
Redsunset ....... 32 . 37 . 71 . 45 . 62 . 33 . 65 . 32 . 29 . 27 . 25 . 30 .. 436 ... 488(12) .. 40.7 ... 11 . 7 10
Hellboy99 ........ 19 . 38 . 45 . 47 . 66 . 39 . 34 . 30 . 31 . 55 . 45 . 16 .. 430 ... 465(12) .. 38.8 ... 12 10 16
JD ................. 45 . 37 . 42 . 46 . 38 . 41 . 44 . 09 . 51 . 42 . 36 . 26 .. 422 ... 457(12) ... 38.1 ... 13 11 17
Nacho Libre ..... 37 . 15 . 49 . 49 . 40 . 52 . 38 . 32 . 58 . 28 . 38 . 20 .. 421 ... 456(12) .. 38.0 ... 14 12 18
Fionagus ......... 29 . 21 . 39 . 38 . 48 . 43 . 41 . 72 . 41 . 35 . 34 . 15 .. 420 ... 456(12) .. 38.0 ... 15 12 18
Rebelbrowser .... -- . 23 . 63 . 46 . -- . 41 . 41 . 34 . 50 . 38 . 27 . 39 .. 402 ... 402(10) ... 40.2 ... 16 -- 13
Seafields .......... -- . 08 . 16 . 46 . 48 . 62 . 31 . 07 . 34 . 72 . 48 . 20 .. 385 ... 392(11) .. 35.6 ... 17 -- 22
200motels ....... 31 . 27 . 49 . 38 . 33 . 52 . 57 . 22 . 42 . 16 . 26 . 24 .. 379 ... 417(12) .. 34.8 ... 18 14 23
Johnmac .......... -- . 10 . 33 . 40 . 58 . 50 . 23 . 43 . 29 . 56 . 34 . 07 .. 375 ... 383(11) ... 34.8 ... 19 -- 23
Dasa29 ........... 09 . 31 . 46 . 51 . 48 . 42 . 40 . 25 . 31 . 16 . 44 . 11 .. 374 ... 394(12) .. 32.8 ... 20 15 27
Deep Easterly... 23 . 14 . 22 . 37 . 54 . 42 . 23 . 37 . 58 . -- . 18 . 28 .. 342 ... 356(11) ... 32.4 ... 21 -- 28

(only ranked for average)

waterways .......... -- . -- . -- . 44 . -- . -- . 54 . 32 . 50 . 53 . -- . 43 .. 276/6 ... 46.0 ............ -- -- 5
Mickger844posts . -- . -- . -- . -- . 63 . 58 . 45 . 36 . 43 . 51 . 38 . 15 .. 349/8 ... 43.6 ............ -- -- 7
The Inquisitor ..... -- . 34 . 43 . -- . -- . -- . -- . 49 . 38 . 30 . 39 . 48 .. 281/7 ... 40.1 ............ -- -- 13
Pauldry ............. -- . -- . -- . 37 . 42 . 35 . 50 . 54 . 72 . 18 . 44 . 06 .. 358/9 ... 39.8 ............ -- -- 14
Sponge Bob ........ -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 67 . 31 . 35 . 25 .. 158/4 .... 39.5 ............ -- -- 15
Talkabout .......... -- . -- . 56 . 39 . 41 . 56 . 25 . -- . 36 . 41 . 38 . 06 .. 338/9 ... 37.6 ............ -- -- 20
Gothwalk ............ -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 42 . 41 . 18 . 45 .. 146/4 .... 36.5 ............ -- -- 21
WolfeIRE ............ 30 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 37 . 35 . 67 . 18 . 46 . 10 .. 243/7 ... 34.7 ............ -- -- 25
Cherryghost ....... 20 . 37 . 33 . 59 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 36 . 19 .. 204/6 .... 34.0 ............ -- -- 26
Homolumo ........... -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 38 . 22 . 28 . 34 . 57 . 08 .. 187/6 ... 31.1 ............ -- -- 29
Jambofc ............. -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 33 . 40 . 17 ... 90/3 .... 30.0 ............. -- -- 30

Based on this final contest scoring table, I will be posting a congrats thread in a few minutes. Congrats of course to Danno (first in all categories), Joe Public (second in all categories) and Jerry Seinfeld (third in the boards contest category), as well as thetonynator who held on to third in average, and DOCARCH who was third in the MTC award for those who entered all twelve months. Look for the congrats thread to post your comments, it should be a lot of fun.

2010 Monthly Forecast Contest -- scores

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