Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI Poll (January 2010)

Sulmac

I'm sure most of you have heard of the poll results by now, but here they are again, just to get a discussion going:

Modest recovery in Government support despite tough budget

STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor

Fri, Jan 22, 2010



SUPPORT FOR the Government, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil has increased since last autumn, despite one of the toughest budgets in the history of the State, according to the latest Irish Times /Ipsos MRBI poll.

However, Fine Gael is also up in the poll and the combined support for the two main Opposition parties is running at 56 per cent, compared to 25 per cent for the two Coalition parties.

The modest recovery in the satisfaction ratings of the Government and the Taoiseach has brought them back to levels last seen in November 2008.

While Fianna Fáil is up two points since the last poll on the eve of the Lisbon Treaty referendum, the Green Party has dropped one point.

Satisfaction with the Government is up five points to 19 per cent, while satisfaction with the performance of Taoiseach Brian Cowen is up three points to 26 per cent.

When people were asked who they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll on September 24th last were: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (up one point); Labour, 24 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up one point); Green Party, 3 per cent (down one point); and Independents/ Others, 11 per cent (no change).

The poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.

The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Times poll was: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael, 24 per cent (up one point); Labour, 17 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 7 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 2 per cent (down one point); Independents/Others, 8 per cent (no change); and undecided voters 22 per cent (up one point).

The modest increase in the Fianna Fáil vote is offset by the decline in support for the Greens, who have slipped back into the negative territory that saw the party almost wiped out in the local elections last June.

The most heartening aspect of the poll from the Government’s perspective is the improvement in its satisfaction rating by five points in the wake of the budget and the bad weather, combined with the continued recovery in the Taoiseach’s ratings.

Fine Gael has retained the substantial lead over Fianna Fáil it first achieved in November 2008. This is the seventh Irish Times poll in a row to show Fine Gael as the biggest party in the country, and this was reflected in the European and local elections last June.

Labour has remained ahead of Fianna Fáil in the adjusted vote, although it has slipped behind the main Government party in terms of the core vote.

Labour has consolidated its lead as the biggest party in Dublin, although it has slipped back among the best- off AB social category, where Fine Gael is now the leading party.

The Green Party’s share of the vote has dropped back by a point, while satisfaction with the party leader, John Gormley, has gone up two points to 24 per cent.

The improvement in Brian Cowen’s satisfaction rating has come in spite of the fact that a significant 32 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters expressed dissatisfaction with his performance, while 59 per cent of Green supporters are dissatisfied.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny’s rating has slipped one point to 31 per cent, but he is still ahead of both Coalition party leaders. Labour leader Eamon Gilmore remains by far the most popular political figure on 45 per cent, with a one point increase since the last poll.

The Sinn Féin vote has dropped back after a rise during the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign, when it was the only Dáil party campaigning for a No vote.

Satisfaction with party president Gerry Adams is up three points to 31 per cent, in spite of the recent controversy surrounding his handling of child abuse allegations.

© 2010 The Irish Times

mike65

Just to save a mod issuing "the standard warning", I'll do it - whats your opinion on the poll findings?

Spiritoftheseventies

Sulmac wrote: »

I'm sure most of you have heard of the poll results by now, but here they are again, just to get a discussion going:

heard that. But on those figures Labour FG will comfortably get in on a combined vote. Green vote i think will collapse.

Sulmac

mike65: Sorry, should have said!

Not surprised that FF are up after the budget where many will view them as having "stood up" to the public service. Though I'm still glad that FG and Labour are both larger and collectively have more than half the vote, whereas the coalition has a mere quarter. I'm also very surprised that Gerry Adams' rating has gone up with the recent controversy (I could never understand why it was that high among voters in the Republic anyway, it's not like he ever really does anything there).

The only thing that worries me is that the FF vote could keep rising at the expense of Labour (in particular) and soon FG.

I can't see the Greens recovering any time soon, despite the implementation of their so-called "green agenda", which I think most people agree with (environmentalism, energy, etc.).

Spiritoftheseventies

I think electorate will be very wary about voting for labour if they think there is a chance they will go into power with FF. And im still not toltally convinced that they will do the right thing. They need to say flat out unequivocally that they will not share power with FF>

johnnyskeleton

I hope against hope that this small rise is just a blip and not the start of them rising back in popularity.

Sadly though I see 2012 rolling around with FF beating the "look at the tough decisions we made 2 years ago; vote for us and the boom times will be back but vote for the opposition and they will sink the ship".

It really is that easy to manipulate the population of ireland. Tough budget 2010, medium budget 2011, give-away budget 2012, get re-elected and have 2-3 years of the fall out from abysmal short term pork barrel policies. Then 2015 budget tough decisions, 2016 medium budget and 2017 give away budget.

What's amazing is that they even have 22% of the vote.

Sulmac

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Sadly though I see 2012 rolling around with FF beating the "look at the tough decisions we made 2 years ago; vote for us and the boom times will be back but vote for the opposition and they will sink the ship".

One reason we need an election before 2012; this year would probably be best - particularly if the economy returns to growth (ie. technically exits recession) and they start to gain off that.

nesf

FF could very easily build up support over 2010 if the economy continues to respond well to their fiscal moves. There is almost no chance of them getting to where they'd need to be to stay in Government though. FF/Lab could afford to drop 5% and still probably be able to make up the numbers after the next General. FF are recovering from an extremely poor position, so even a decent recovery from them won't put them in pole position next election unless the FG vote collapses on itself which I have trouble seeing.

Spiritoftheseventies

yes but do you agree that the uncertainty over labours position may jeopardize FG in terms of forming a coalition.

nesf

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

yes but do you agree that the uncertainty over labours position may jeopardize FG in terms of forming a coalition.

Labour don't need to be in 2nd place to be able to go into Government with FG so long as FG keep a decent lead on FF.

Spiritoftheseventies

nesf wrote: »

Labour don't need to be in 2nd place to be able to go into Government with FG so long as FG keep a decent lead on FF.

my reasoning being that FF with labour (even with a reduced percentage) maybe enough to see them over the line. And thats what people would be wary off.

johnnyskeleton

nesf wrote: »

FF could very easily build up support over 2010 if the economy continues to respond well to their fiscal moves.

I don't think it will. However, I'm concerned about the way that FF will spin things come the next election. They will sell themselves as the ones who made the "tough" decisions even though they didn't and they are the ones who will bring the new prosperity, even though all they are doing is having another giveaway budget on borrowed money. Sadly, the majority of the people of Ireland respond well to this.

nesf wrote: »

There is almost no chance of them getting to where they'd need to be to stay in Government though. FF/Lab could afford to drop 5% and still probably be able to make up the numbers after the next General. FF are recovering from an extremely poor position, so even a decent recovery from them won't put them in pole position next election unless the FG vote collapses on itself which I have trouble seeing.

I'm certainly hoping that they don't recover in popularity, but I'm by no means certain that they won't be re-elected come the next election. Coming into the last election the opposition were looking to be the clear favourites, but it tightened up towards the election day and in the end people voted FF back in. It's hard to remember those halcyon days of 2007, but even then the economy was in serious trouble and FF managed to just gloss over that for a massive number of people.

Even now, I'm not sure a lot of people really understand the nature of the economic difficulties the country faces, and only really know something is wrong because they have lost their job or their home etc.

FF will march out in early 2012 promising a second boom and jobs for all. FG being more honest will not make such claims. Labour being Labour will be very popular across the country but fail to capitalise on that due to poor vote management and a lack of nationwide candidates and presence. And yes, I can see FF coming back with maybe 65-70 seats, enough to get them into a rickety coalition but back into power none-the-less.

Sulmac

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

my reasoning being that FF with labour (even with a reduced percentage) maybe enough to see them over the line. And thats what people would be wary off.

This would also be more attractive to Labour as they'd have more say with a weak FF than a strong FG and thus more influence. "Party before country" and all that. :rolleyes:

Labour really need to say categorically they will not enter government with FF under any conditions, as you said.

nesf

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

my reasoning being that FF with labour (even with a reduced percentage) maybe enough to see them over the line. And thats what people would be wary off.

Despite FF being a better fit policy wise for Labour (in my opinion) the chances of Labour going into bed with FF after the next election are extremely thin so long as FG remain a strong force. FF could even finish first in the next election and end up in Opposition so long as the electoral math made a 2 party FG/Lab Government a possibility.

Spiritoftheseventies

Sure they will be making all those promises again. Remember Joan Burton alluding to fact that one particular minister was out canvassing at post offices where loan parents collected their allowances and promising some deal. Was sometime last year. Said minister shook his head when she brought it up.
this the link in question.

It was sunny day in early May. The year was 2007. Professor Bertie Ahern had just called an election. Brian Lenihan had an early morning job to do that pleasant sunny Tuesday morning of May 2007. It was the monthly Child Benefit payment day. Not just any ordinary payment day. That day in May 2007 was a bumper payment day. The previous December the other Brian, Mr Cowen, then Minister for Finance had made a special Budget day announcement. Child Benefit was to increase in 2007 by €10 a month per child. Not immediately in 2007. Mothers would have to wait a few months. They would have to wait till May to get the increase, by coincidence a likely election month.

So mums on the post office queue in Blanchardstown were looking forward to a bumper payment. And to make the day extra special there was the Minister for Children Brian Lenihan TD walking along the queue shaking hands, kissing babies and reminding everyone that Fianna Fail was the party that looked after child benefit. Something to remember on election day a few weeks later. That day in May 2007 you, Brian Lenihan TD, were cock of the Blanchardstown Post Office Walk. Now today, what do you have to say to those mums?

I can tell you Brian Lenihan , Mna na hEireann are not that easily fooled. It was exactly the same 5 years earlier. You and other FF TDs could boast to senior citizens over 70 that they would all get medical cards. That promise helped you win power again in the 2002 General Election. Later, you thought that you could play ducks and drakes with those people. Not so as it turned out.

http://www.joanburton.ie/?postid=1232

Eliot Rosewater

The 22% figure for FF is not the most striking one. The mere 32% for FG is. How ridiculous is it that the principal opposition party to one of the most unpopular governments our country has seen is only skirting around one third of the vote?! And how much of that 33% is only because they are the "least worst"??

Fine Gael are totally incompetent in opposition. They are wasting an opportunity that may never come to them again. They could be sprinting over the finish line with an outright majority if they just took the bull by the horns, reformed the leadership, and struck the country with confidence. Instead they will waddle over it, puffed out, and share the spoils with Labour.

Spiritoftheseventies

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

The 22% figure for FF is not the most striking one. The mere 32% for FG is. How ridiculous is it that the principal opposition party to one of the most unpopular governments our country has seen is only skirting around one third of the vote?! And how much of that 33% is only because they are the "least worst"??

Fine Gael are totally incompetent in opposition. They are wasting an opportunity that may never come to them again. They could be sprinting over the finish line with an outright majority if they just took the bull by the horns, reformed the leadership, and struck the country with confidence. Instead they will waddle over it, puffed out, and share the spoils with Labour.

Yes I think they will move to get Bruton in as leader within next twelve months or so. A very good orator. Himself and Lee the dream ticket in that party. Kenny has done well to build party up again but now it is time to move over.

Eliot Rosewater

Just out of curiosity, do you have any reason to suspect Kenny will be pressured out?

From where Im standing it would seem that it is merely those in political positions holding on for their political lives. Party before country, person before party. Kenny would prefer leading a weak coalition to not leading a strong majority.

I think this may be why Lee is under wraps. To much of a chance the backbenchers would be muffed that the newcomer gets all the attention. Lee was political gold imo, they just had to play him. But they didn't. Reeks of political infighting.

Spiritoftheseventies

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, do you have any reason to suspect Kenny will be pressured out?

From where Im standing it would seem that it is merely those in political positions holding on for their political lives. Party before country, person before party. Kenny would prefer leading a weak coalition to not leading a strong majority.

I think this may be why Lee is under wraps. To much of a chance the backbenchers would be muffed that the newcomer gets all the attention. Lee was political gold imo, they just had to play him. But they didn't. Reeks of political infighting.

I think they have to get either Lee or Bruton in. Lee comes across as someone who has the conviction to take on the vested interests. Have been very impressed with him so far. But really cant see Kenny staying on by time of next election.

maynooth_rules

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

The 22% figure for FF is not the most striking one. The mere 32% for FG is. How ridiculous is it that the principal opposition party to one of the most unpopular governments our country has seen is only skirting around one third of the vote?! And how much of that 33% is only because they are the "least worst"??

Fine Gael are totally incompetent in opposition. They are wasting an opportunity that may never come to them again. They could be sprinting over the finish line with an outright majority if they just took the bull by the horns, reformed the leadership, and struck the country with confidence. Instead they will waddle over it, puffed out, and share the spoils with Labour.

No matter how unpopular Fianna Fail become with the electorate, they will still have there core supporters who would rather die that vote for anyone else, that is around 20% of the population (scary, i know). But other than that, there are plenty of the electorate who have become completly disillusioned with Fianna Fail but could not bring themselves to vote for Fine Gael. There is a limit to how popular Fine Gael can be due to history/family reasons. I personally could never see the day that Fine Gael get a full majority, mainly because many irish people stick to their votes and wont budge on it. I don't think a change of leadership will make one bit of difference to Fine Gaels overall support.

Eliot Rosewater

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

I think they have to get either Lee or Bruton in.

I think they have to too. But therein lies the problem. There is a sense of complacency in Fine Gael that is staggering. These things that are common sense to you and I wont happen easily. I cant see Kenny passing on the goblet (is that the saying?) even though the party would benefit immensely.

Ive said it before and ill say it again: a sizable proportion of people don't care about policy so much as personality. They want someone to shout "look at me, Ill fix this!" Kenny generally seems to be the biggest reason people dont want to vote Fine Gael. Its obvious he must go. But this is politics and the obvious is distorted by interests.

maynooth_rules wrote: »

I personally could never see the day that Fine Gael get a full majority, mainly because many irish people stick to their votes and wont budge on it...

I would disagree with you but I am relatively young so I spend most of my time around the "new generation" who seem to have a different attitude. This family voting thing is going out of fashion. As is joining a party just because your father did. I think that there is the 20% FF "lock in" but that its only an excuse. The small mindedness is fading away.

As an example I would ask you to cast your mind back to the John O'Donoghue furore. There were people on this Politics forum - who by definition are interested in Politics - who said that they would vote for Labour solely on the basis of Gilmores actions that day. People want leadership! Kenny doesn't offer it. Its obvious that FG need to change him so as to give the people what they are so blatantly crying out for.

Tenderloins1

I also thought that the recent media coverage about Adams and Sinn Fein would have damaged them.
However the coverage wasn't widespread nor was there that much on TV (especially with the Robinson affair dominating the news up there).
I'm sort of contracdicting myself here ...but with the abuse issue and policing talks we've also seen a bit more of Adams on the telly recently here.
Presumably it reminds people of The Peace Process and so on.

As mentioned earlier in the thread I often hear the I'd Vote Fine Gael only for Kenny line. You'd wonder would they though if Kenny went.

I'd love someone to do a poll with another who you'd vote for question,
This time with Richard Bruton as the Fine Gael Leader.
(it may well have been done)

nesf

Tenderloins1 wrote: »

I also thought that the recent media coverage about Adams and Sinn Fein would have damaged them.

I disagree, Adams' handling of the family situation improved my opinion of him rather than diminished it and I'm very far from being a fan of SF.

oppenheimer1

nesf wrote: »

FF could very easily build up support over 2010 if the economy continues to respond well to their fiscal moves. There is almost no chance of them getting to where they'd need to be to stay in Government though. FF/Lab could afford to drop 5% and still probably be able to make up the numbers after the next General. FF are recovering from an extremely poor position, so even a decent recovery from them won't put them in pole position next election unless the FG vote collapses on itself which I have trouble seeing.

Couldn't one argue that FF would deserve to win an election if they steer the country out of trouble?

nesf

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Couldn't one argue that FF would deserve to win an election if they steer the country out of trouble?

Some may think that way, sure. Enough to give FF a majority and get them back in office? Generally after recessions or during them the incumbents get turfed out. It would be highly unusual for a party to retain power both during the boom and then during and after the recession. It "could" happen but I wouldn't bet on it unless you gave me very long odds.

Spiritoftheseventies

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Couldn't one argue that FF would deserve to win an election if they steer the country out of trouble?

No. they got the country into this mess. Moral fibre. They don't have it.

Badabing

What do people think of Enda Kennys idea of a Fine Gael overall majority after this poll? Fine Gael would need to rise by at least 10% to have a chance. I can't see them getting the extra seats in the 3-4 seaters especially in Dublin and Cork.

hallelujajordan

Badabing wrote: »

What do people think of Enda Kennys idea of a Fine Gael overall majority after this poll? Fine Gael would need to rise by at least 10% to have a chance. I can't see them getting the extra seats in the 3-4 seaters especially in Dublin and Cork.

Highly unlikely . . Almost all of the swing has been from FF to FG . . One could argue that FG have not won support but rather FF have lost it. . Although the extent and pace of recovery is uncertain I would be very surprised if the economy has not shown a significant level of recovery by 2012. This recovery will cause a swing back towards FF and at FG's expense. The only chance I can see of a FG overall majority would be a major implosion within FF and an early general election . . both very unlikely.

hallelujajordan

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

No. they got the country into this mess. Moral fibre. They don't have it.

Ought we not to elect the government best positioned for the future . . If, as oppenheimer1 poses, FF have brought about an economic recovery they will likely be best positioned to continue that recovery. . It would be rather self-defeating to push them out of government at that stage !

Spiritoftheseventies

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Ought we not to elect the government best positioned for the future . . If, as oppenheimer1 poses, FF have brought about an economic recovery they will likely be best positioned to continue that recovery. . It would be rather self-defeating to push them out of government at that stage !

Again no. You tell me how we still have some schools operating out of prefabs, no post op beds, a huge gap between the rich and the poor and tell me if thats okay. This is not a one party state. FF have had ten years to get this right and they haven't. Time they served their time on the opposition benches.

hallelujajordan

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

Again no. You tell me how we still have some schools operating out of prefabs, no post op beds, a huge gap between the rich and the poor and tell me if thats okay. This is not a one party state. FF have had ten years to get this right and they haven't. Time they served their time on the opposition benches.

Do you mean No, we ought not to elect the government best positioned for the future ? ?

Spiritoftheseventies

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Do you mean No, we ought not to elect the government best positioned for the future ? ?

Im saying we need a change of government.

johnnyskeleton

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

I think they have to too. But therein lies the problem. There is a sense of complacency in Fine Gael that is staggering. These things that are common sense to you and I wont happen easily. I cant see Kenny passing on the goblet (is that the saying?) even though the party would benefit immensely.

Ive said it before and ill say it again: a sizable proportion of people don't care about policy so much as personality. They want someone to shout "look at me, Ill fix this!" Kenny generally seems to be the biggest reason people dont want to vote Fine Gael. Its obvious he must go. But this is politics and the obvious is distorted by interests.

My view on why he is not replaced by Bruton or Lee is that, while people outside the party don't like Kenny and see him as a weak leader, those inside the party see him as a strong leader who picked up the shattered remains of FG and made a united party out of them. Don't forget that unlike FF - whose only policy is to get re-elected and divvy out the goodies and will say anything to achieve and subsequently cover up those goals - FG have a wide variety of political and economic views in the party from the slightly (very slightly) left of centre to the extreme right. You have the George Lees who are all about reforming the country and making a better, socially inclusive country, and you have others like Leo Varadkar who are, well, noisy borderline racists who believe in Regan style economics.

So there is a disconnect between the party faithful who support Kenny and the majority of voters who would rather someone a bit more forthright and honest. It's a pity that the FG members can't see this for themselves, but I've tried to explain it to a few party members who look at me blankly as though I don't really understand politics. I guess I really don't understand internal party politics, but I think that they fail to understand the true politics of being elected.

I would disagree with you but I am relatively young so I spend most of my time around the "new generation" who seem to have a different attitude. This family voting thing is going out of fashion. As is joining a party just because your father did. I think that there is the 20% FF "lock in" but that its only an excuse. The small mindedness is fading away.

I agree, and nowadays the 20% hardcore FF supporters are not doing so because of some civil war hangover, but are so because FF are the party of power and membership of FF guarantees certain goodies in terms of career advancement, job opportunities, connections and favours. If FF were kept out of power for 10-15 years, I think we would start to see this 20% core group fall apart and FF would be forced to actually think up some policies.

As an example I would ask you to cast your mind back to the John O'Donoghue furore. There were people on this Politics forum - who by definition are interested in Politics - who said that they would vote for Labour solely on the basis of Gilmores actions that day. People want leadership! Kenny doesn't offer it. Its obvious that FG need to change him so as to give the people what they are so blatantly crying out for.

There's another theory too, which is that FG don't want to get into power. Taking the reigns now is taking a sip from the poisoned chalice. They may be in power for a few years but the anger currently directed against FF would shortly be directed against them - for no other reason than that they don't bring with them an amazing change (such as Obama promised but has yet failed to deliver on). Clearly they would be better in government, if only for a change, but I suspect that they might also be afraid of the corrosive effect of being in power at the moment. That i suspect is why they are not too forceful when it comes to opposing FF's hare brained schemes.

Liam Byrne

The headline is biased and misleading, IMHO......the "tough budget" has nothing to do with it....

The reason they should be cast aside is what they did BEFORE that; to land us in this mess.

And if newspapers are already forgetting to remind us about that, then God help us, we might well have to suffer this shower of con-men after the next election.

Newspapers should be reminding people about the FF links to EVERYTHING that landed us in this mess, not a "third time lucky" budget that actually helped a little (even though it was a forced hand due to the seperate NAMA con-job).

Liam Byrne

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Do you mean No, we ought not to elect the government best positioned for the future ? ?

Who's that then ? :rolleyes:

Don't bother answering, because FF could cause pretty much anything and you'd still believe they were the best.

I reckon we should elect people who are interested in the future, and in having a fair and solvent country; a government who wants to see white-collar scum exposed and jailed, expenses con-men kicked out, and those without tax clearance evicted from our Dail.

We need reform. FF have had years to implement it and are not interested in doing so. Let them rot.

irishh_bob

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, do you have any reason to suspect Kenny will be pressured out?

From where Im standing it would seem that it is merely those in political positions holding on for their political lives. Party before country, person before party. Kenny would prefer leading a weak coalition to not leading a strong majority.

I think this may be why Lee is under wraps. To much of a chance the backbenchers would be muffed that the newcomer gets all the attention. Lee was political gold imo, they just had to play him. But they didn't. Reeks of political infighting.

agree about ditching kenny , dont agree with you on george lee , IMO he has been populist in the extreme since being elected and has hedged his bets on every single issue , he waffles so much , anytime i hear him on radio or tv , i tune out , make leo varadakarr taoiseach

irishh_bob

maynooth_rules wrote: »

No matter how unpopular Fianna Fail become with the electorate, they will still have there core supporters who would rather die that vote for anyone else, that is around 20% of the population (scary, i know). But other than that, there are plenty of the electorate who have become completly disillusioned with Fianna Fail but could not bring themselves to vote for Fine Gael. There is a limit to how popular Fine Gael can be due to history/family reasons. I personally could never see the day that Fine Gael get a full majority, mainly because many irish people stick to their votes and wont budge on it. I don't think a change of leadership will make one bit of difference to Fine Gaels overall support.

the number one criteria when it comes to people deciding who to vote for in this country is what way thier family tree voted

Spiritoftheseventies

irishh_bob wrote: »

the number one criteria when it comes to people deciding who to vote for in this country is what way thier family tree voted

do you not think it comes down to civil war politics. Cant say i was ever influenced by family tree but am very influenced by my teaching in school.

Pride Fighter

Even with Fianna Fail in the low 20's they would have to be over 10 points behind Labour to have catastrophic seat loses and to be the third party in size.

Cannot see it happen but hopefully it does:)

Eliot Rosewater

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

people outside the party don't like Kenny and see him as a weak leader, those inside the party see him as a strong leader

Well you seem to have a more of an insiders view than me. Thats an interesting theory. But are those in Fine Gael that naive of the public? For example, do they think the parties doing well? In my opinion its doing terrible considering the circumstances, but perhaps the FGers think its great.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

membership of FF guarantees certain goodies in terms of career advancement, job opportunities, connections and favours.

Ive heard this before,from an honest source too. Does that kind of thing actually happen?

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

There's another theory too, which is that FG don't want to get into power.

I agree that thats the case. However I think its a terrible tactic. They're doing only moderately ok. As it stands theyre going to crawl into Government with Labour. If they had stuck their noses out and really pulled out all the guns, they could have got an outright majority in my opinion. It may have ended up with them being in Government sooner, before the recession is out, but at least they would have the credibility and a full 5 years to get the economy sorted.

They took the easy, totally complacent option. Theyve missed what may be the only opportunity to get a majority in the Dail for decades.

irishh_bob wrote: »

agree about ditching kenny , dont agree with you on george lee

My point is really that what the politicians say doesnt matter, once they inspire confidence. Most people wont listen or analyze what Less says. His very presence will inspire them to vote FG. Imo. Fundementally, most people dont care half as much about politics as you me and everyone else here does.

irishh_bob

Spiritoftheseventies wrote: »

do you not think it comes down to civil war politics. Cant say i was ever influenced by family tree but am very influenced by my teaching in school.

same thing , people vote based on which side thier forefathers took , dont know about dublin but this is still the biggest decider in rural ireland , no matter what anyone says

Liam Byrne

irishh_bob wrote: »

same thing , people vote based on which side thier forefathers took , dont know about dublin but this is still the biggest decider in rural ireland , no matter what anyone says

Can't speak for everyone, but I know my dad used to vote FF until Charvet Conm-man took over, after which he backed O'Malley.

Unfortunately, the PDs (a) went into power with FF and (b) abandoned their watchdog role, so that's them dead and buried. They also went too far in terms of privatisation (feck-all social protection for essential services) for my liking, so even if they were still around I wouldn't be following even Dad's footsteps.

If a person or party stands up, does good, doesn't have double-standards, and aims for accountability and a fairer society, my vote's 100% up for grabs.

It's up to them.

Spiritoftheseventies

irishh_bob wrote: »

same thing , people vote based on which side thier forefathers took , dont know about dublin but this is still the biggest decider in rural ireland , no matter what anyone says

Yes from the time Dev used some of the Bonds money from his fundraising trip to America in 1920s to set up the press have always been a bit suspicious of FF. That and what happened with the Big Fella another factor why I have never voted for them.

Sulmac

The headline in tomorrow's (well, today's) Irish Times:

Catholic Church 'should give up control of primary schools'

STEPHEN COLLINS Political Editor

Mon, Jan 25, 2010

IN THE wake of the Murphy report a majority of people believe that the Catholic Church should give up its control of the primary school system, according to the latest Irish Times /Ipsos, MRBI poll.

When asked about the issue, 61 per cent of people said the church should give up control of the school system, 28 per cent said it should maintain its position and 11 per cent had no opinion on the matter.

Fianna Fáil voters were most supportive of the church maintaining its current role, while Sinn Féin voters were the most hostile to it continuing to have control of the system.

There were no great differences in terms of age. Over 65s were marginally more supportive of the church’s position, but the views of the 18-24 age group were almost identical.

There was also a uniform response in terms of social class but there were some regional variations with voters in Dublin most strongly against continuing church control and voters in the rest of Leinster most supportive. This reflected a national urban/rural divide on the issue, with the response of people in urban areas more negative than those in rural areas.

The poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of last week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.

When asked if their attitude to the Catholic Church had changed following the disclosures in the Murphy report about its handling of child abuse allegations, voters were almost equally divided. Forty-seven per cent of voters said their attitude to the church had become more negative; 47 per cent said it had not changed; 3 per cent said it had become more positive; and 3 per cent had no opinion.

Asked how they felt about the response of the church to the Murphy report, 74 per cent said the church had not responded adequately, 16 per cent said it had, and 10 per cent had no opinion.

People aged 65 and over were more inclined to believe that the church had responded adequately but even in this age group a large majority felt the response had not been adequate.

Voters in Dublin were strongest in the view that the church had not responded adequately while those in Connacht/Ulster were most inclined to the view that it had responded adequately.

In party political terms Fianna Fáil voters were more inclined to say the church had responded adequately but a substantial majority of party supporters still felt that it had not responded adequately.

Sinn Féin voters were the most negative about the church’s response.

The only positive aspect of the poll from the church’s point of view is that a majority of voters believe that it will change to prevent clerical child abuse from happening in the future.

In response to being asked if they thought the church would change to prevent abuse 52 per cent said they believed it would, 35 per cent said it would not and 13 per cent had no opinion.

As with the other questions on the Murphy report, Fianna Fáil voters were most inclined to the view that the church would change with 61 per cent of them believing that it would.

Fine Gael voters were almost equally inclined to the same view with 57 per cent saying the church would change.

Labour Party supporters were more negative, followed by the Greens with Sinn Féin voters the only ones to show a majority for the view that the church would not change.

In age terms those over 50 and the 18-24s were most inclined to the view that the church would change to prevent abuse in the future. Across the regions Dublin was again the most negative from the church’s point of view while Munster was the most positive.

© 2010 The Irish Times

I hope the government take note and act on this (though the chances of that with this government are slim to nil). It's a joke that in this day and age we still have religiously-run publicly-funded education.

Hand 'em all over to the state (or the local VECs, whichever), I say. Although what is needed in many towns across the country is a merger of primary and secondary schools. Most towns across the country should have one large secondary school that accepts all students with modern facilities; instead of small towns having several, poorly funded schools - with varying levels of segregation depending on who runs them. This would also save a decent amount of money, I'd imagine.

If people want religious education they can teach their own children or, better yet, pay for it themselves.

irishh_bob

Sulmac wrote: »

The headline in tomorrow's (well, today's) Irish Times:



I hope the government take note and act on this (though the chances of that with this government are slim to nil). It's a joke that in this day and age we still have religiously-run publicly-funded education.

Hand 'em all over to the state (or the local VECs, whichever), I say. Although what is needed in many towns across the country is a merger of primary and secondary schools. Most towns across the country should have one large secondary school that accepts all students with modern facilities; instead of small towns having several, poorly funded schools - with varying levels of segregation depending on who runs them. This would also save a decent amount of money, I'd imagine.

If people want religious education they can teach their own children or, better yet, pay for it themselves.

thier is indeed huge scope for the merging of schools ( particulary primary ) in rural ireland , in the parish i live , thier are three primary schools , the largest which is closest to the village has 90 pupils , the one closest to where i live has 30 pupils and the smallest one has around 25 pupils , were all three to be merged into the largest school , the furthest any student would have to travel is three miles miles yet suggest such a thing and before you could say the term UP IN ARMS , you would have a legion of canvassers knocking on doors with a petition , too many people in this country want a school , hospital , sports stadium or international airport within spitting distance , its time we got real , its the same with rural garda stations , were the closest one to where i live , to be closed , it would only mean the guards took an extra 5 mins to reach my house from the town ( larger ) garda station , as for the line about locals needing to know thier garda , since when are guards stationed in thier home town and since when do they mingle with the locals

PomBear

Is Labour/SF coalition a possibility? Labour could tip it over FG in that way and be a leading party for once

View

PomBear wrote: »

Is Labour/SF coalition a possibility? Labour could tip it over FG in that way and be a leading party for once

I'd doubt it. Their combined total would leave them well shy of anything approaching a majority.

Also, I'd imagine that Labour would have no intention of opening the door for SF. The SDLP, if you recall, got little thanks from the electorate of NI for helping bring SF in from the cold.

If anything, I'd suspect that a deal with SF would cost Labour votes.

PomBear

View wrote: »

I'd doubt it. Their combined total would leave them well shy of anything approaching a majority.

Also, I'd imagine that Labour would have no intention of opening the door for SF. The SDLP, if you recall, got little thanks from the electorate of NI for helping bring SF in from the cold.

If anything, I'd suspect that a deal with SF would cost Labour votes.

SF are the biggest party in NI, the SDLP had little to do bring that about.

Labour identify most with SF as they're both left wing, thats why my mind came across the thought.

irishh_bob

PomBear wrote: »

SF are the biggest party in NI, the SDLP had little to do bring that about.

Labour identify most with SF as they're both left wing, thats why my mind came across the thought.

but they represent two distinctly different kind of left wing voters

View

PomBear wrote: »

SF are the biggest party in NI, the SDLP had little to do bring that about.

The SDLP were bigger than SF prior to and at the start of the peace process. At the time, the SDLP - John Hume in particular - went out of their way to open the door for SF. Now, after the peace process, SF are bigger than the SDLP.

I'd imagine that Labour is not going to open any doors here for SF and run the risk of experiencing the SDLP's fate.

PomBear wrote: »

Labour identify most with SF as they're both left wing, thats why my mind came across the thought.

FF and FG are both right wing (or, at least, non-left wing). I'd doubt they identify with each other all that often.

Labour voter's have the second highest average socio-economic standard of living (After the Greens). I wouldn't say that Labour's voters would be all that thrilled about a deal with SF.

PomBear

View wrote: »

The SDLP were bigger than SF prior to and at the start of the peace process. At the time, the SDLP - John Hume in particular - went out of their way to open the door for SF. Now, after the peace process, SF are bigger than the SDLP.

I'd imagine that Labour is not going to open any doors here for SF and run the risk of experiencing the SDLP's fate.



FF and FG are both right wing (or, at least, non-left wing). I'd doubt they identify with each other all that often.

Labour voter's have the second highest average socio-economic standard of living (After the Greens). I wouldn't say that Labour's voters would be all that thrilled about a deal with SF.

True enough, agree with all that. I just believe Labour look after their policies more than what they believe will get them voted in or atleast save their seats. Thats the sad state that irish politics has been in for as long as I can remember that they care more about keeping/gaining seats then actually represent the people that vote for them