Heineken Cup and Amlin Cup Round 5 discussion + QFs as they stand.

thomond2006

Heineken Cup Tables: http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/34_63.php

Munster and Leinster are both on 20 points, however Munster are seeded higher as they have scored more tries than Leinster (so far) in the pool stages:

Clubs from different Pools (if still unresolved)
(iii) if the teams have not played each other previously in the Pool
stage, qualification / ranking will be based on:
(a) the number of tries scored in all Pool matches.
(b) aggregate points difference from all Pool matches.

Teams ranked 1 - 4 will have home advantage. The Quarter-Finals will be:
Team 1 v Team 8; Team 2 v Team 7; Team 3 v Team 6; Team 4 v Team 5

As it stands, these are the Heineken Cup quarterfinalists:

(1) Munster (a losing BP next week is probably enough)
(2) Leinster (qualifies if LI fail to achieve BP win next week)
(3) Toulouse (qualified)
(4) Biarritz (qualified)
(5) Leicester Tigers (win at Ospreys puts them through)
(6) Stade Francais (If Ulster win, Stade may need to to beat Edinburgh)
(7) Northampton Saints (Don't need anything if LI lose to Leinster)
(8) Ospreys (win at home to Tigers puts them through)

Teams not in the eight above but still capable of qualifying: Clermont Auvergne (will definitely go through), London Irish, Ulster, Sale Sharks, Cardiff Blues.

Therefore, the ties would be:

Munster vs Ospreys
Leinster vs Northampton Saints
Toulouse vs Stade Francais
Biarritz vs Leicester Tigers

Looking at that draw, I could see four home wins there.

For argument's sake, as the 3rd - 5th best pool runners up: London Irish, Sale Sharks and Ulster qualify for the Amlin Challenge Cup quarter finals in that order.

---

Amlin Tables: http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/176_221.php

Quarter-finalists
1 ACC 1 (Top ranked ACC Pool winner)
2 ACC 2 (Second ranked ACC Pool winner)
3 ACC 3 (Third ranked ACC Pool winner)
4 ACC 4 (Fourth ranked ACC Pool winner)
5 Heineken Cup 1
6 Heineken Cup 2
7 Heineken Cup 3
8 ACC 5 (Fifth Ranked ACC Pool winner)

Quarter-final Pairings
1 (ACC 1) v 8 (ACC 5)
2 (ACC 2) v 7 (Heineken Cup 3)
3 (ACC 3) v 6 (Heineken Cup 2)
4 (ACC 4) v 5 (Heineken Cup 1)

As it stands:
(1) London Wasps (qualified)
(2) Connacht (qualified)
(3) Leeds Carnegie
(4) Newcastle Falcons
(8) Toulon

Coming from HEC:

(5) London Irish
(6) Sale Sharks
(7) Ulster

The Quarterfinal matchups:

Wasps vs Toulon
Connacht vs Ulster
Leeds v Sale Sharks
Newcastle Falcons vs London Irish

---

Open to correction if I've got something wrong there.

The QFs will definitely change after the Round 6 results.

P_1

Pool 1
Munster 20P 19T
Saints 18P 16T
Perpingian 6P 7T
Treviso 5P 7T

A win against the Saints will be enough for Munster to qualify with a home QF with the Saints qualifying as one of the best placed runners up.
A win for the Saints will have them qualify as pool winners and Munster will qualify as one of the best placed runners up.

Pool 2
BOPB 18P 15T
Gloucester 12P 8T
Glasgow 9P 7T
Dragons 6P 10T

BOPB are qualified as pool winners, a win against Glasgow should ensure a home QF.
Gloucester are out but a win against the Dragons could see them qualify for the QF of the Amlin Cup

Pool 3
Leicester 17P 23T
Ospreys 16P 20T
Clermont 16P 15T
Viadana 0P 4T

Leicester will qualify as pool winners with a BP win against the Ospreys or as one of the best placed runners up with a win against the Ospreys.
Ospreys will qualify as pool winners with a BP win against Leicester or a win against Leicester if Clermont don't get a BP win against Viadana and will qualify as a best placed runner up with a win against Leicester.
Clermont will qualify as pool winner with a BP win against Viadana or as a best placed runner up with a win against Viadana.

Pool 4
Stade 17P 10T
Ulster 13P 8T
Edinburgh 9P 3T
Bath 7P 5T

Stade will qualify as pool winners with a win against Edinburgh.
Ulster will qualify as pool winners with a BP win against Bath and Edinburgh beating Stade and will have an outside chance of qualifying as a best place runner up with a win against Bath.

Pool 5
Toulouse 19P 12T
Sale 13P 14T
Cardiff 13P 8T
Quins 2P 10T

Toulouse have qualified as pool winners and a win against Sale will ensure a home QF.
Sale have an outside chance of qualifying as a best placed runner up if they beat Toulouse and Quins beat Cardiff.
Cardiff have an outside chance of qualifying as a best placed runner up if they beat Quins and Toulouse beat Sale.

Pool 6
Leinster 20P 18T
London Irish 15P 15T
Scarlets 13P 10T
Brive 0P 4T

Leinster will qualify as pool winners with a losing BP against London Irish. A win against London Irish will ensure a home QF while a defeat could be good enough to qualify as a best placed runner up.
London Irish need a BP win against Leinster ensuring that Leinster do not get a BP to qualify.
Scarlets have an outside chance of qualifying as a best placed runner up with a BP win against Brive and Leinster beating London Irish.

myflipflops

I was preparing a very similar thread. You are completely correct in the above as how it stands and the 1/4 final match ups if the groups were over now. It would be an ideal scenario for the Irish provinces too!!


As it stands
Munster 20 Leading Saints home
Leinster 20 Leading L Irish away
Toulouse 19 Qualified Winner Sale away
Biarritz 18 Qualified Winner Glasgow home
Leicester 17 Leading Ospreys away
Stade 17 Leading Edinburgh away
Northampton 18 2nd Munster away
Ospreys 16 2nd Leicester at home
Clermont 16 3rd Viadana away
L Irish 15 2nd Leinster Home
Ulster 13 2nd Bath away
Scarlets 13 3rd Brive Away



It won't end up like this though so my basic predictions for ROund 6 matches leave the final table like this:

Munster 24 Winner
Leinster 24 Winner
Biarrtiz 23 Winner
Toulouse 23 Winner
Clermont 21 Winner
Stade 21 Winner
Ospreys 20 2nd
Northampton 18 Runner up
Leicester 18 3rd
Ulster 17 Runner up
Cardiff 17 Runner up
L Irish 16 Runner up


This knocks Leicester out in 3rd despite having 18 points and makes a 1/4 final line up of:

Munster v Northampton
Leinster v Ospreys
Biarritz v Stade
Toulouse v Clermont


This is based on the following potential results:

Munster beat Saints with neither side gaining a BP
Leinster beat LI with LI gaining a losing BP
Stade beat Edinburgh with no try BP
Ospreys beat Leicester with a losing BP for Leicester
Clermont gain the full 5 points away to Viadana
Toulouse beat Sale with no try BP
Ulster beat Bath with no try BP
Cardiff beat Quins with no try BP
Scarlets beat Brive (????!!) with no try BP


Obviously there are dozens of variations and plenty of close ones here. What does look incredibly likely is that 3 of the home quarter finalists will be Munster, Toulouse and Biarritz. All of these are places to avoid so the fight for the 4th seeded place is huge.


Pick apart as you wish but please don;t take any offence to my round 6 predictions, I just did a very quick go at them.

thomond2006

myflipflops wrote: »

.....

Too long so I won't quote it but you're pretty much right in your calls there.

After Munster play Saints on Friday night, we should have a clearer picture.

thomond2006

Copy and paste your post to the other thread if you like, pithater1.

P_1

Pool 1
Munster 20P 19T
Saints 18P 16T
Perpingian 6P 7T
Treviso 5P 7T

A win against the Saints will be enough for Munster to qualify with a home QF with the Saints in with a chance of qualifying as one of the best placed runners up.
A win for the Saints will have them qualify as pool winners and Munster will qualify as one of the best placed runners up.

Pool 2
BOPB 18P 15T
Gloucester 12P 8T
Glasgow 9P 7T
Dragons 6P 10T

BOPB are qualified as pool winners, a win against Glasgow should ensure a home QF.
Gloucester are out but a win against the Dragons could see them qualify for the QF of the Amlin Cup

Pool 3
Leicester 17P 23T
Ospreys 16P 20T
Clermont 16P 15T
Viadana 0P 4T

Leicester will qualify as pool winners with a BP win against the Ospreys or as one of the best placed runners up with a win against the Ospreys.
Ospreys will qualify as pool winners with a BP win against Leicester or a win against Leicester if Clermont don't get a BP win against Viadana and will qualify as a best placed runner up with a win against Leicester.
Clermont will qualify as pool winner with a BP win against Viadana or as a best placed runner up with a win against Viadana.

Edit: Lots of permutations for this pool, for arguments sake 2 of the 3 will qualify.

Pool 4
Stade 17P 10T
Ulster 13P 8T
Edinburgh 9P 3T
Bath 7P 5T

Stade will qualify as pool winners with a win against Edinburgh.
Ulster will qualify as pool winners with a BP win against Bath and Edinburgh beating Stade and will have an outside chance of qualifying as a best place runner up with a win against Bath.

Pool 5
Toulouse 19P 12T
Sale 13P 14T
Cardiff 13P 8T
Quins 2P 10T

Toulouse have qualified as pool winners and a win against Sale will ensure a home QF.
Sale have an outside chance of qualifying as a best placed runner up if they beat Toulouse and Quins beat Cardiff.
Cardiff have an outside chance of qualifying as a best placed runner up if they beat Quins and Toulouse beat Sale.

Pool 6
Leinster 20P 18T
London Irish 15P 15T
Scarlets 13P 10T
Brive 0P 4T

Leinster will qualify as pool winners with a losing BP against London Irish provided that London Irish don't get a try BP. A win against London Irish will ensure a home QF while a defeat could be good enough to qualify as a best placed runner up.
London Irish need a BP win against Leinster ensuring that Leinster do not get a BP to qualify.
Scarlets have an outside chance of qualifying as a best placed runner up with a BP win against Brive and Leinster beating London Irish.

Crash

Your Pool1, Pool6 and Pool3 descriptions have a few errors in them:

"A win against the Saints will be enough for Munster to qualify with a home QF with the Saints qualifying as one of the best placed runners up."

Saints qualification as second place qualifier depends on Leinster beating LI. If LI win, they'd be on 19 points (with Saints either on 18-19 depending on the BP) - so judging that there will definitely be a second place qualifier from group 3, they'll duke it out for that spot. Similarly, if LI won 5-0, and Northampton won 4-0 or 5-0, Munster and Leinster would be fighting it out, potentially in a three way with the runner up of pool 3.

Tbh, Pool 3 just makes so many bloody awkward combinations :P

P_1

thomond2006 wrote: »

Copy and paste your post to the other thread if you like, pithater1.

Done, looks like we both got the idea at the same time

Crash

Threads merged.

myflipflops

Planet rugby have gone through the games too and make the following prediction:

Our predicted quarter-final line-up:


Leinster v Northampton

Munster v Leicester

Biarritz v Stade Francais

Clermont v Toulouse

Looks like they feel that Leicester will beat Ospreys and Sale will beat Toulouse.

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,16016_5867408,00.html

twinytwo

myflipflops wrote: »

I was preparing a very similar thread. You are completely correct in the above as how it stands and the 1/4 final match ups if the groups were over now. It would be an ideal scenario for the Irish provinces too!!


As it stands
Munster 20 Leading Saints home
Leinster 20 Leading L Irish away
Toulouse 19 Qualified Winner Sale away
Biarritz 18 Qualified Winner Glasgow home
Leicester 17 Leading Ospreys away
Stade 17 Leading Edinburgh away
Northampton 18 2nd Munster away
Ospreys 16 2nd Leicester at home
Clermont 16 3rd Viadana away
L Irish 15 2nd Leinster Home
Ulster 13 2nd Bath away
Scarlets 13 3rd Brive Away



It won't end up like this though so my basic predictions for ROund 6 matches leave the final table like this:

Munster 24 Winner
Leinster 24 Winner
Biarrtiz 23 Winner
Toulouse 23 Winner
Clermont 21 Winner
Stade 21 Winner
Ospreys 20 2nd
Northampton 18 Runner up
Leicester 18 3rd
Ulster 17 Runner up
Cardiff 17 Runner up
L Irish 16 Runner up


This knocks Leicester out in 3rd despite having 18 points and makes a 1/4 final line up of:

Munster v Northampton
Leinster v Ospreys
Biarritz v Stade
Toulouse v Clermont


This is based on the following potential results:

Munster beat Saints with neither side gaining a BP
Leinster beat LI with LI gaining a losing BP
Stade beat Edinburgh with no try BP
Ospreys beat Leicester with a losing BP for Leicester
Clermont gain the full 5 points away to Viadana
Toulouse beat Sale with no try BP
Ulster beat Bath with no try BP
Cardiff beat Quins with no try BP
Scarlets beat Brive (????!!) with no try BP


Obviously there are dozens of variations and plenty of close ones here. What does look incredibly likely is that 3 of the home quarter finalists will be Munster, Toulouse and Biarritz. All of these are places to avoid so the fight for the 4th seeded place is huge.


Pick apart as you wish but please don;t take any offence to my round 6 predictions, I just did a very quick go at them.

that would be gay.. i thought u couldnt have someone who was in your group?

myflipflops

twinytwo wrote: »

that would be gay.. i thought u couldnt have someone who was in your group?

Nope, it's a situation of straight seeding with 1 v 8, 2 v 7 etc etc.

I fail to see what's 'gay' about it though. It would be a superb draw for Munster I reckon.

thomond2006

twinytwo wrote: »

that would be gay.. i thought u couldnt have someone who was in your group?

No, London Irish played Perpignan in the QF in 07/08, they were in the same pool.

Brewster

Mistake there in Ulster's group, lets concentrate on Irish teams. As Stade hold better head to head against Ulster, Ulster must get 5 points in Bath and hope that Edinburgh beat Stade by more than 7 denying them a losing bonus. The only way Ulster can finish group winners is for this scenario to onfold. Ulster 18 points, Stade 17, Ulster group winners.

Northampton getting bonus point in injury time effectively killed Ulster's chances of a best runner up spot as they try count is so inferior to Northamptons. Big call and I think a wrong call by Rolland today awarding Saints a try without going to TMO. It wasn't a try as far as I was concerned. Had Northampton not got bonus in 82 minute, and Munster and Leinster both win next weekend, 5 points for Ulster would most probably got them a best runners up spot. Id Fancy this to happen, so massive kick in teeth for Ulster. There only other rivals for runner up spot would have been Sale or Cardiff, but given Sale face Toulouse they would have had a real shout. Disappointing for Ulster in this regard.

B0X

Should Munster and Leinster be the top two seeds, does that set the scene for a (depending all goes well) mouth watering Red vs Blue final? The final fabled in the big book of Irish club rugby folklore.

wixfjord

twinytwo wrote: »

that would be gay.. i thought u couldnt have someone who was in your group?

This **** really annoys me. What a stupid thing to say.

PhatPiggins

myflipflops wrote: »

Nope, it's a situation of straight seeding with 1 v 8, 2 v 7 etc etc.

I fail to see what's 'gay' about it though. It would be a superb draw for Munster I reckon.

+1 I'd much rather a team that we know inside out

Lots of interesting permutations. It looked fairly cut and dried in the 2nd place stakes until today.BP will probably get Northampton through next weekend.

In pool 3 though Clermont wouldn't get in if the draw was made now but should get the 5 against Viadana next weekend leaving an effective playoff match between Leicester and the Ospreys.

Some mouth watering permuatuons there.For example Clermont v Toulouse and Munster v Leicester.

In the challenge cup Scarlets could potentially slip in under the radar with a win in Brive next week although that won't be easy.

Still so much to play for should lead to an exciting conclusion next weekend.:D

Risteard

B0X wrote: »

Should Munster and Leinster be the top two seeds, does that set the scene for a (depending all goes well) mouth watering Red vs Blue final? The final fabled in the big book of Irish club rugby folklore.

Would depend on the draw for the semi finals. The pool standings have no bearing on these draws as they're just picked out of a hat so we could just as well end up with a semi-final or a final should both teams qualify.

Hyperbullet

With all that said (and I'm fairly confused by some of it), what 3 teams would drop down to the challenge cup?

danthefan

I don't get looking at things 'as they stand'. It means absolutely nothing.

Brewster

Hyperbullet wrote: »

With all that said (and I'm fairly confused by some of it), what 3 teams would drop down to the challenge cup?

At an educated guess, id say Ulster, Scarlets and maybe Cardiff would drop into Amlin. Need three away wins for this to happen. Scarlets at Brive, Ulster at Bath and Cardiff at Quins

louthandproud

B0X wrote: »

Should Munster and Leinster be the top two seeds, does that set the scene for a (depending all goes well) mouth watering Red vs Blue final? The final fabled in the big book of Irish club rugby folklore.

You'd have to think it's likely, first round aside Munster and Leinster have been the teams of the tournament so far, IMHO at least, I suppose next weekends games could change that but I doubt it.

durkadurka

It's strange really, that despite leinster's good fortune today and the last minute stroke of genius last night, they still need to beat li next week, because that home qf against the likes of northampton or ospreys is infinitely preferable to an away qf in france, or leicester, or limerick....

Podge_irl

B0X wrote: »

Should Munster and Leinster be the top two seeds, does that set the scene for a (depending all goes well) mouth watering Red vs Blue final? The final fabled in the big book of Irish club rugby folklore.

The semi is an open draw so the seedings have no bearing on that.

I heart the Scarlets. Thought LI were on the way to a bonus point win there, but the Scarlets really surprised me and that bonus point at the end was the icing on the cake. Leinster must be major favourites to top the group now, hopefully they can still beat LI so as to make it at home.

B0X

Ah right, didn't know the semi's were a draw. Suppose I can still hope for it to come off

thomond2006

Podge_irl wrote: »

Leinster must be major favourites to top the group now, hopefully they can still beat LI so as to make it at home.

I fancy Leinster to beat Irish, at the same time a losing BP for Leinster will probably be enough to secure a home QF.

durkadurka

I wouldn't object to another sf in croker either

danthefan

thomond2006 wrote: »

I fancy Leinster to beat Irish, at the same time a losing BP for Leinster will probably be enough to secure a home QF.

Really? Sweet.

Edit - looking at the pools I don't think so.

bleg

Munster v Northampton
Leinster v Ospreys
Biarritz v Stade
Toulouse v Clermont

This.

durkadurka

danthefan wrote: »

Really? Sweet.

I'm not too sure about that. I think 22 points will be needed for home qf.

Good news though is that the leinster series of games are the fourth, so leinster will have a very good idea of what will be required.

siltirocker

danthefan wrote: »

Really? Sweet.

Edit - looking at the pools I don't think so.

Of course they will. Unless nearly every possible outcome in the other groups goes against Leinster, which i doubt will happen.

wixfjord

siltirocker wrote: »

Of course they will. Unless nearly every possible outcome in the other groups goes against Leinster, which i doubt will happen.

All it would take would be a Munster win, a Tolouse win, a Clermont 4 try win which is almost guaranteed and a Biarritz win, all of which are very very possible and a Leinster losing BP wouldnt be enough.

durkadurka

Or if stade get a bp win. They play before leinster so they'll know what they need.

siltirocker

wixfjord wrote: »

All it would take would be a Munster win, a Tolouse win, a Clermont 4 try win which is almost guaranteed and a Biarritz win, all of which are very very possible and a Leinster losing BP wouldnt be enough.

Im not saying its guaranteed, but i can easily imagine them with a BP lose getting a home quarter.

And Clermont would need, like 7 try to 0 try win to get ahead of a Leinster BP loss.

(If Leinster lose with a BP) Tigers, Biarritz & Paris only the only teams in a better shape than them in my opinion.

Bukman13

siltirocker wrote: »

Im not saying its guaranteed, but i can easily imagine them with a BP lose getting a home quarter.

And Clermont would need, like 7 try to 0 try win to get ahead of a Leinster BP loss.

(If Leinster lose with a BP) Tigers, Biarritz & Paris only the only teams in a better shape than them in my opinion.

If Lenister lose with a BP

Clermont dont need 7.tries to go ahead. its not decided upon try diff, its tries scored. Clermont are only 3 behind Lenister.

Winners of Pools 1,2, & 3 more than likely finsh Above 21pts and 20tries.

Pool 4 - Stade Francais not getting a BP win away to Edinburgh would be Lenisters best hope.

Peter B

What is the story for the ranking for 1-8?

Obviously if you are top of your group you automatically qualify, but could you be ranked behind a team who came second in their group if they finished on more points than you?

Crash

Nope - 1 to 6 are made up of the pool winners, 7 and 8 are second place. A second place can never rank higher than a group topper.

*waits to be proven wrong*

Brewster

Crash wrote: »

Nope - 1 to 6 are made up of the pool winners, 7 and 8 are second place. A second place can never rank higher than a group topper.

*waits to be proven wrong*

Correct, Leinster with a losing bonus would be in for a shout of a home quarter. For this to happen, Stade would have to fail to get a bonus point and Sale would have to beat Toulouse at home. Forget about Clermont, they would go ahead of Leinster as they will hammer Viadana. So Leinster's fate would come down to Sale Toulouse. I dont think Stade will get a try bonus point, in fact, I wouldn't rule out Edinburgh going toe to toe with them for win.

smurphy29

This being the Heineken Cup, you can practically guarantee something strange will happen in the final week. The Munster v Northampton and Ospreys v Leicester match-ups look tasty. I'm sure neutrals and LI fans are gutted that the Twickenham game has lost a little of its edge, but as a Leinster fan I'm fairly happy to be so firmly in control of the group.

Can someone confirm for sure that two teams from the same group can meet again in the QFs? (ie Munster and Northampton if the permutations allow for it).

goodFeather

smurphy29 wrote: »

Can someone confirm for sure that two teams from the same group can meet again in the QFs? (ie Munster and Northampton if the permutations allow for it).

Yep, in 2006 Biarritz beat northampton away in round 6 to secure a home quarter final against northampton (which Biarritz lost).

smurphy29

goodFeather wrote: »

Yep, in 2006 Biarritz beat northampton away in round 6 to secure a home quarter final against northampton (which Biarritz lost).

Thanks goodFeather, I'd imagine Munster fans are hoping for a bit more variety rather than back to back games at home to Northampton.

ballboy 1978

1 Munster
2 Leinster
3 Biarritz
4 Leicester

5 Stade
6 Toulouse
7 Clermont
8 Northampton

Munster v Northampton Munster
Leinster v Clermont Leinster
Biarritz v Toulouse Toulouse
Leicester v Stade Leicester


Maybe

Munster beat Toulouse in semi
Leinster beat Leicester in semi


Munster hammer Leinster in final

Who knows

durkadurka

ballboy 1978 wrote: »

1 Munster
2 Leinster
3 Biarritz
4 Leicester

5 Stade
6 Toulouse
7 Clermont
8 Northampton

Munster v Northampton Munster
Leinster v Clermont Leinster
Biarritz v Toulouse Toulouse
Leicester v Stade Leicester


Maybe

Munster beat Toulouse in semi
Leinster beat Leicester in semi


Munster hammer Leinster in final

Who knows

Are we getting a teeny weeny bit ahead of ourselves here?

twinytwo

durkadurka wrote: »

Are we getting a teeny weeny bit ahead of ourselves here?

id love to see a munster/leinster final.... would be 10 times better than a munster/leinster semi

ScrubsfanChris

ballboy 1978 wrote: »

1 Munster
2 Leinster
3 Biarritz
4 Leicester

5 Stade
6 Toulouse
7 Clermont
8 Northampton

Munster v Northampton Munster
Leinster v Clermont Leinster
Biarritz v Toulouse Toulouse
Leicester v Stade Leicester


Maybe

Munster beat Toulouse in semi
Leinster beat Leicester in semi


Munster hammer Leinster in final

Who knows

Are you suggesting that Munster will let Northampton get a losing bonus point for them to get to 19

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Leinster do get a home QF it will be their first in ages since the 04/05 season I think.

The first since Cheika took over.

thomond2006

Would Leinster play a home QF at Croker?

Crash

QF would be in the RDS.

Riskymove

Crash wrote: »

QF would be in the RDS.

agreed, only a munster v leinster game would generate enough demand for croker

johno2

goodFeather wrote: »

Yep, in 2006 Biarritz beat northampton away in round 6 to secure a home quarter final against northampton (which Biarritz lost).

Erm, Munster beat Biarritz in the final that year. You must have made a mistake with the year.