Are the USAs days numbered?

nyarlothothep

With China on the rise, their economy in tatters and two wars which are draining finances is America finished? Is this like a Roman empire situation of excess and exhaustion? On the one hand I think China could very well be the worlds next major superpower but on the other I'm skeptical. Their economic growth seems to be inflated as in I don't see it being sustainable long term. But it seems like the United States glory days, which peaked with the moon landing imo, are past. Also, why on earth are they in the middle east if its just about oil (I certainly don't think its for any humanitarian reasons but I'm asking what other advantages are there?), there is research into producing oil from biological sources, insects which excrete oil namely, why not pour money into this? Will the next century be characterized by a clash between "liberal" states and their "authoritarian" counterparts, west and east as the pundits would have it? Or is this too simplistic a prediction?

FlutterinBantam

Hopefully they are, it will give us a rest from all the bashers and sceptics denigrating everything they do.

Overheal

Not dated, no. But we definitely made a tactical error when we abandoned our long held Capitalist principles to bailout the banks, etc.

Anonymous1987

nyarlothothep wrote: »

But it seems like the United States glory days, which peaked with the moon landing imo, are past.

I'd be inclined to believe that the US peaked during the dot com bubble around 1999. The US isn't really doomed to decline it just seems they have reached a crossroads. While China may have superpower potential it is still an emerging economy and has a lot of work ahead before they become an advanced economy. The next stage from a US superpower would be a multi-polar political system or the new world order which has captured the imagination of conspiracy theorists.

Biggins

I wouldn't be too quick to write off the USA just yet - China might be a bubble that is slowly about to burst - seriously!

Have a read of the following news examples, I'd be interested to hear what others think:

1. Contrarian Investor Predicts Crash in China
2. As China Rises, Fears Grow on Whether Boom Can Endure
3. Is China the Next Enron?

I've also come across other European reports of us all putting our eggs so to speak, in Chinas basket too much.
In relation to America - I suspect a bounce back of some kind will come sooner or later.
Maybe not to such a great degree as before but at some level, things will get better for all trading partners with them.

KerranJast

China as it currently is constituted is fundamentally unstable. There's only so much economic growth that it can experience before the growing middle classes begin to demand more freedoms. If the US manages to secure energy independence within the next 50 years (which I believe it can) it will continue to be the leading world power.

Overheal

Thats a good point. For a number of years now, China has been inching toward an internal crisis/turning point; during which the future of the country is going to be decided and theres going to be what is hopefully a huge working class revolt (preferably peaceful)

RedPlanet

KerranJast wrote: »

China as it currently is constituted is fundamentally unstable. There's only so much economic growth that it can experience before the growing middle classes begin to demand more freedoms..

I don't see why China can't drip-feed those same middle class those freedoms.
Also, middle-class persons do not revolt, they have too much to loose.
If your looking for revolution, turn to the poor.

KerranJast wrote: »

If the US manages to secure energy independence within the next 50 years (which I believe it can) it will continue to be the leading world power.

What, with all their vested interests in oil? Looking at their energy consumption rates compared to the rest of the world, not to mention their city layouts, their heavily mechanized agriculture, id say we've a few more resource wars to go before they re-jigg their entire country for a greenie-pinko agenda.

Biggins

If the USA (and the rest of the world to be honest) is to pick itself up again - it has to tackle one MAJOR problem.
That of obtaining rare-earth elements.

'China has already supplied the rest of the world with 90 per cent of its rare-earths'.

(See this article: HERE)

If they (and we) can cross that problem, the road to recovery will be a lot easier.

dub02

China has the fastest aging population in the world....an almost non existent social security system..and a one child policy...give it a few more years a uproar will take place...although the buzzword around china at the moment is "sustainable development" so It should be interesting to see how it plays out in the next 10 years...On a side note the World Expo in Shanghai is estimated to attract 70 millions visitors...up to 400k a day...Good thing the Porter House have a place at the Irish pavillion;)

Biggins

dub02 wrote: »

China has the fastest aging population in the world....an almost non existent social security system..and a one child policy...

Side note: I believe China is trying to do something about its one child policy. They already foresee problems in the future with this policy continuing.
Something to do with not enough youth eventually to support the increasing ageing population that might overtake them in increasing numbers and further cause an added monetary strain.

dub02

I think the government are beginning to "relax" that policy...but when have you ever known for them to ease up on anything...Its the men I pity..they reckon in the next 25 years the rate for men to women will be 140:100..bad enough them having small wieners..now they'll have no use for them:D I'd like to know the amount of abortions since 1979..i'd imagine its pretty big

Iwasfrozen

dub02 wrote: »

I think the government are beginning to "relax" that policy...but when have you ever known for them to ease up on anything...Its the men I pity..they reckon in the next 25 years the rate for men to women will be 140:100..bad enough them having small wieners..now they'll have no use for them:D I'd like to know the amount of abortions since 1979..i'd imagine its pretty big

So ban abortions in China ?

InTheTrees

Biggins wrote: »

They already foresee problems in the future with this policy continuing.

God help us all then. With 3 billion of them already their birth control policies are the only thing holding them back a little.

Biggins

InTheTrees wrote: »

God help us all then. With 3 billion of them already their birth control policies are the only thing holding them back a little.

A certain person in Rome is probably just grateful they are not another huge growing religious sect.

Overature

I do not think China will every be classed as a super power, yes they economy is booming but i think that because the population is so big that there is an awful lot of organizing that needs to be done to keep everybody alive and with jobs etc.

when you say the USA's days are numbered I think that you are in a way true that they will not be one dominant force against the likes of Russia for example in the cold war. I think that in the new rise in terrorism there will be a lot more of countries pulling together to stop it.

What we need is something like the EU, but on a wider scale that will make trade easier and there will be less want or need for wars

Victor

Overature wrote: »

I do not think China will every be classed as a super power, yes they economy is booming but i think that because the population is so big that there is an awful lot of organizing that needs to be done to keep everybody alive and with jobs etc.

But there is also an awful lot of people to do the organising.

Overheal

Victor wrote: »

But there is also an awful lot of people to do the organising.

Organisation is not China's biggest problem. I wouldn't even consider it a problem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHxgls-R22Q

they have Organization pretty figured out. Always have. And you have to hand it to them they're one of the oldest nations on earth. The Original Superpower.

dub02

I think this century is going to belong to the Asia's in particular China, but don't be fooled people although the stats are jaw dropping..there not necessarily true

Overheal

The thing is, is China bent on Megalomania? Have they ever showed it? Everything I've ever seen and read and heard about China to me simply suggests they just want to be left relatively alone.

ChocolateSauce

Overheal wrote: »

The thing is, is China bent on Megalomania? Have they ever showed it? Everything I've ever seen and read and heard about China to me simply suggests they just want to be left relatively alone.

Despite being the most powerful nation on earth for around 25 of the last 30 centuries, they've never tried to conquer the world as far as I know. Even when their Ming era fleet sailed as far as south Africa, conquest wasn't something they cared about. I don't think they want to dominate the world, I just think they want to shield themselves from domination.

Anyway, I think the USA will be the most powerful nation in the world for a long time indeed, perhaps 100 more years, and it will remain among the top nations for its entire existence, however long that may be. It has room for well over a billion people, so long term growth isn't going to be hampered by space or food.

Anonymous1987

Depends what you mean by Megalomania? China has nuclear weapons and is wedged between India and Russia both nuclear powers so in terms of military expansionism it looks like China is pretty limited by way of a nuclear deterrent but of course there are other ways it could swing its weight around for all the wrong reasons. Nevertheless as you say the Chinese short and probably medium term strategy is largely inward focused in terms of politics. China is certainly in no rush to exert external political influence even when the West encouraged it to.

Victor

So China supports Pakistan and Burma. India is now surrounded.

Anonymous1987

Victor wrote: »

So China supports Pakistan and Burma. India is now surrounded.

Could happen, my point is that there are a fair few regional emerging economies which individually could not stand up to China but together would offer a fairer match. I was getting at the point I made earlier that we might go through a multi polar phase in international politics. At least that is what Obama has seemed to hint at early in his presidency although US-Chinese relations seem to be talking a turn for worse because of climate change and protectionist tariffs.

JohnMearsheimer

I agree that the unipolar position of the US is coming to a end. Interesting article by Chris Layne here on the subject if anyone is interested:

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/is3102_pp007-041_layne.pdf

I'm not sure whether or not China will come to dominate the system as a whole. First it will have to try to dominate Asia but it will have its work cut out there. South Korea and Japan are tied to the US and I'm sure Russia and India will have something to say on the subject as its their backyard too.

China are always banging on about how they are anti-hegemonic but if you follow the logic of realism, every state in the world will want to control as much power as possible because it makes you top dog. It comes down to how much power China wants, which we don't know.

I think we may see a return to multipolarity. You got the US and China but you also have Brazil, Russia, India and the EU if it gets its act on foreign policy together.

ascanbe

Regardless of China's strength/supposed strength, i think the USA is on the brink of collapse.
I hope i'm wrong, as there is so much i love about that country; and feel it and it's constitution, when properly followed, have so much to teach the world.
I believe that the seeds of its downfall were sown long ago; there is nothing Obama, or anyone else, can do, to stop the inevitable.
It seems to me that it is a 'superpower' pumped up on ideological hubris, with nothing to back it up; the Iraq war was a fatal mistake and the ultimate unveiling to the the world that the 'emporer has no clothes'.
I doubt the USA, as we know it, will see out this decade.
As i said, i hope i'm wrong.

GuanYin

In the interests of fostering actual Political discussion as opposed to pseudo reactionary rhetoric, can anyone tell me specifically what aspects of the US's policy will lead to this downfall and in what way they'll manifest?

For instance, if the USA changed or relaxed immigration laws, it would cease to be "The USA as we know it".

If you're going to predict an apocalyptic fall of society in the politics forum, you can at least try and dress it up as being roughly on topic for the forum.

ascanbe

Presuming that's aimed at me, to go into the specifics that underlay my opinion would take a long time; anyway, as i said, it's just an opinion.
I see that the question of immigration is pressing on your mind; if i were to elaborate on the reasons for my, quite likely erroneous conclusion, immigration wouldn't play a big part.
Like i said, that's my reading of the situation (at a late hour, while drunk); and, like i said, i look forward to being proven wrong.

GuanYin

ascanbe wrote: »

Presuming that's aimed at me

No, the thread in general.

to go into the specifics that underlay my opinion would take a long time; anyway, as i said, it's just an opinion.

OK, I appreciate it's just an opinion and that to elaborate would take time, but this is a Politics discussion forum and it's cool if we can, ya know, discuss the issues... makes it easier if we know what we're discussion, specifically.

I see that the question of immigration is pressing on your mind; if i were to elaborate on the reasons for my, quite likely erroneous conclusion, immigration wouldn't play a big part.

Oh not at all, I picked an example out of the air, there was no particular reason, I could have just as easily said healthcare...

Like i said, that's my reading of the situation (at a late hour, while drunk); and, like i said, i look forward to being proven wrong.

You can only be proven wrong if you actually tell us what you think will or won't happen.

It's kinda like me saying... "Stuff will happen... prove me wrong folks".

JohnMearsheimer

I think we are going to see an increase in balancing behaviour. The nature of balancing is changing. Traditionally hard balancing is seen as using military means to balance another states power. Even though the US is in Iraq and Afghanistan at the moment I still don't think they can be matched militarily.

Now we have soft balancing, its more the use of diplomacy and economics to balance another state's power. Its not as overt as hard balancing. Middle Eastern oil is peaking but a lot of new big oil finds are coming out of Africa. China is in the process of sowing up this oil which in the longterm could undermine US energy security and its position in the world.

Diplomatically China and Africa are cosying up to each other. Some say China's relationship with Africa is why the US Africa Command is based in Germany and not in Africa. Many African countries won't host US troops and bases. This limits US power projection capabilites.

These are only small things but their effects (and effects of similar acts) will all add up over time. Thats the point of soft balancing. The US is not going to lose its superpower status anytime in the near future.

ascanbe

GuanYin wrote: »

No, the thread in general.



OK, I appreciate it's just an opinion and that to elaborate would take time, but this is a Politics discussion forum and it's cool if we can, ya know, discuss the issues... makes it easier if we know what we're discussion, specifically.


Oh not at all, I picked an example out of the air, there was no particular reason, I could have just as easily said healthcare...


You can only be proven wrong if you actually tell us what you think will or won't happen.

It's kinda like me saying... "Stuff will happen... prove me wrong folks".

Fair enough; i can't disagree with any of the points you made.
I shall return; if what i wrote tonight stands up to scrunity from my sober self.
I hope that it doesn't; otherwise, i'll have to rack my brain for the reasons i wrote it , in order to back it up.

ascanbe

JohnMearsheimer wrote: »

I think we are going to see an increase in balancing behaviour. The nature of balancing is changing. Traditionally hard balancing is seen as using military means to balance another states power. Even though the US is in Iraq and Afghanistan at the moment I still don't think they can be matched militarily.

Now we have soft balancing, its more the use of diplomacy and economics to balance another state's power. Its not as overt as hard balancing. Middle Eastern oil is peaking but a lot of new big oil finds are coming out of Africa. China is in the process of sowing up this oil which in the longterm could undermine US energy security and its position in the world.

Diplomatically China and Africa are cosying up to each other. Some say China's relationship with Africa is why the US Africa Command is based in Germany and not in Africa. Many African countries won't host US troops and bases. This limits US power projection capabilites.

These are only small things but their effects (and effects of similar acts) will all add up over time. Thats the point of soft balancing. The US is not going to lose its superpower status anytime in the near future.

Just to finish, for tonight; that misses the point i was making.
The rot, i believe, has set in; the problem is internal, not from without.
Foreign policy is irrelevant.
The ill-fated Iraq war unveiled America, foreign policy wise; both in terms of its intentions and its limatations.
There is no going back from that fatal mistake, in my opinion. Which is especially sad, given that the US was at its peak, in terms of sympathy and support from much of the world, after 9/11.
That mistake has, i believe, fatally undermind the USA's place in the world and has ratcheted up the divisions within; you can already see the rise of the demagogues, Glenn Beck etc., who promise to save the common man from the 'evil' government.

JohnMearsheimer

ascanbe wrote: »

Just to finish, for tonight; that misses the point i was making.
The rot, i believe, has set in; the problem is internal, not from without.
Foreign policy is irrelevant.

ok fair enough, I wasn't taking a swing at you or anything. I was just taking my hint from the OP whose original post I gathered had a bit to do with foreign policy.

ynotdu

Hi and please excuse that i cannot multiquote.

I personally DO believe that the USA is on the decline and is not facing up to it.One poster gave it a decade,i would give it 30-50 years.I would not underestimate Russia with all its many Billionares or the shrewdness of Putin,but by itself i do not think it would ever become the 'Superpower'

China is i believe an unstoppable force though.Most of the Money the USA has borrowed has come from China{they by tradition are 'savers'not spenders and we have all seen how hard they are willing to work even in the west.}

The one Child policy on paper made a lot of sense as without it the population would have become so overwhelming China would have had to go to war to do a land-grab and feed its people.The horrible legacy of the policy was that a hugh amount of baby girls were drowned by their parents so they could try for a boy{better chance a boy would take care of them in their old age}

Democracy does not exist in China as We would understand it,so their leaders have the 'luxury' of long term stategys,not the next visit to a ballot box and in general most Chinese do think in the long term.

a small example:there is on the Moon Helioum 3,a compound that Scientists say properly harvested would power an entire city for a year by a tea-spoon worth.Going on for 2000 people have been in Space,yet only 4 of them have been Chinese(in two launchs,even so they have reached the point already that during the Space race both America&Soviets had launched hundreds of flights and dozens of Astronauts.I expect them to orbit the Moon on their next flight,they dont mind waiting,it could be tomorrow or in two years time!as i said they think long term.
America will have no way to get into Space except by hitching a lift from a Russian Soyuz by this time next year!!!!!!

I would say America's decline started when it had used more petrol/Gas than it had on its own soil which according to Al Gores movie 'inconveniant truth' happened in the 1970's!

Like other posters,i hope i am wrong as the term 'Leader of the free world 'would be a nonsense if it was China that was the leader.

as a slight aside,lots of rumours on the net that Googles threat to pull out of China is not google protecting 'human rights' or to stop spying on the west, rather it is a request to 'slow China down' by powerful people/force's in the west!

GuanYin

Let's try and keep this discussion about the US and their policies and not popular misconceptions about other nations.

ynotdu

GuanYin wrote: »

Let's try and keep this discussion about the US and their policies and not popular misconceptions about other nations.

Hi GuanYin i do not believe in 'popular misconceptions' not even about the US!

no disrespect intended but almost NO Nation or idea can be seen in isolation from Global cause and effect anymore:(
It will be very difficult for Mods/Admins to decide what is on or off topic in Politics as 'Globalisation'continues.
rgrds

Manic Moran

GuanYin wrote: »

Let's try and keep this discussion about the US and their policies and not popular misconceptions about other nations.

In a topic about the end of US supremacy, I think it should be permissable to discuss the possible contendors to the title which would usurp the US in the position and their reasons as to why.

NTM

GuanYin

ynotdu wrote: »

It will be very difficult for Mods/Admins to decide what is on or off topic in Politics as 'Globalisation'continues.
rgrds

Manic Moran wrote: »

In a topic about the end of US supremacy, I think it should be permissable to discuss the possible contendors to the title which would usurp the US in the position and their reasons as to why.

NTM

Well, yes, discussing contenders to the throne would be very on topic, were we first to establish the nature, the how and the why of this supposed "fall of the empire".

Here, we're kinda glossing over the important point.

Black Swan

Is America (or more specifically the USA, because there are several countries in north, central, and south "America"), in decline or merely following a megatrend of transformation?

Historically there seems to have been a gradual sea change occurring in world markets over centuries, with the associated shift in power and influence traveling in a westerly direction, from the Mediterranean nations, to Atlantic nations, and now to those on the Pacific Rim? If this megatrend is a valid assumption, and should it continue, eventually there will be a shift in world dominance from the USA to Asia, and principally to the emergent PRC and India?

Interesting Megatrends Asia link: http://www.profitadvisors.com/megatrends.shtml

Then again there may be a competitive counter-megatrend occurring, with the formulation of competitive and world influential trading blocks? The EU has expanded to 25 nations (not counting affiliates), and North America is stumbling along with NAFTA, which might eventually emerge and transform into an Americas trading block, first unifying north, central, and south America for trade benefits as occurred during the early, formative stages of what is the EU today, later followed by the exercise of associated power and influence? A similar trade blocking may emerge and develop into what has been called the Asian Tigers, which in turn would compete with the EU and Americas trading blocks? With the emergence, growth, and development of these blocks, would the Middle East and Africa eventually follow suit?

Those of American (i.e., USA) nationalistic orientation (which could evidence ethnocentrism) may see either of these megatrend theories, should one or both emerge, as a threat to world dominance and national identity? Personally, I like the expansion and adoption of an early metaphor once used to describe an immigrant America as a "stew pot," where the carrots, celery, beef, and other contents retained some of their original form, while taking on the combined flavour of all. So rather than see this as the decline of the USA, I rather visualise it as contributing to a more diverse and delicious mixture.

rightwingdub

well if Obama continues his tax and spend policies America will be on the road to financial run befitting that of Argentina back in 2002 except with a far higher standard of living.

Don't write America off yet, it has recovered in the past throughout its history and it will recover again once it gets a Republican president...lol

Overheal

GuanYin I suspect it would be through financial ruin, not Cultural, Political or Miltary means.

Already according to some people I've talked to - I can dive for statistics in my Free Time at a later date - Maternity Wards are being dominated by Illegal Immigrants or Resident Aliens. Sidestep the Nationality Issue for a moment it becomes a question of Providing Healthcare for Latin America on our dollar.

Lets not even get into the question of what happens when the Cartels finally overthrow the Mexican Government. Which is more probable than it sounds. What would be our response? Lock the door? Go in and restore Democracy? Billions if not Trillions of Taxpayer Dollars? Make Mexico the 51st State? The US will spread itself a little too thin, get involved in too many Theatres and run itself further into bankruptcy. Or if it doesn't, places like Haiti and Mexico will be breeding grounds for drugs and gangs and pose a considerable national security risk regardless. So we'll get involved. And speaking of involved, the Terrorists really dont seem to take too kindly to our 'meddling' with Israel.

This and an emerging trend away from Petro Dollars are going to leave the US in a very diminished role if something doesn't give. Though it may just be inevitable. We need to Withdraw. Our current reach of Influence is unsustainable in the long run.

Overheal

Also, as to the question of whether Terrorists would leave us alone if we left the World alone - I guess I doubt it. But look at it this way: a bunch of Muslims hiding in caves have Kited the World's leading superpower into 2 Foreign Wars costing $1 trillion to date (PDF).

Against which, the Damage caused in the 9/11 Attack was well and truly just the tip of the iceberg.

Somewhere in a cave you can hear the cackle of a man on a Dialysis machine, proud of himself.

Stella777

Yes, the decline will be economic, but I don't think it will be the same for all parts of the country. I believe that certain regions, such as large swaths of the Southwest and California's Inland Empire , for example, might just be toast. For too long much economic activity in those areas has centered on the building and selling of houses. The days of local strawberry pickers being able to buy 400K homes with no money down are long gone. There are just too many people who have fallen for the idea of getting something for nothing. That whole party is over. What will they do now?

The optimist in me would like to believe that people will adapt and find new ways of living, but I worry about what will happen if they don't. The idea of massive numbers of angry people with nothing to lose in this country does scare me a bit.

As for China..I'm just not sure. I used to think of China as a place where the government firmly controlled all aspects of every citizen's life. After going there, though, I realized that their government is not always as in charge as they would like the outside world to believe. Yes, in Beijing proper they certainly run a tight ship. However, if you venture out to some of the provinces it's a different story. There are areas where it's almost like the Wild West. Beijing's arm doesn't seem to reach there. It appears to me that local people who aren't that different from warlords, but in suits, run the show exactly how they like. If you scratch the surface, and talk to people in China, they have their fair share of discontent. I wonder how long their central government can keep everything glued together.

Nodin

Overheal wrote: »

Also, as to the question of whether Terrorists would leave us alone if we left the World alone - I guess I doubt it. But look at it this way: a bunch of Muslims hiding in caves have Kited the World's leading superpower into 2 Foreign Wars costing $1 trillion to date (PDF).

Well one. The second was a 'good idea', apparently, made in the US.

SLUSK

I hope the welfare-warfare state collapses under its own weight and the states secede. I think Texas might break free within 20 years.

Anonymous1987

SLUSK wrote: »

I hope the welfare-warfare state collapses under its own weight and the states secede. I think Texas might break free within 20 years.

:rolleyes: Anything else, apocalypse maybe?

Flamed Diving

China = x^1/2