3 Weeks in and the eagle/met have been more accurate than the Boards "experts"

gihj

Discuss.....................................

alfa beta

for what it's worth i think su campu has been the most accurate here.

maquiladora

Eagle says Polar Low.

No Polar Low.

Discuss...

Min

gihj wrote: »

Discuss.....................................

Yes, here in coastal north Kilkenny we had snow.

Lowest temperatures predicted by the Met were -7 or -8C.

Sorry but even though I'm not an expert I told people here that it was very likely to snow in Kilkenny yesterday.
Kilkenny = west Leinster not east Leinster.

Weathercheck gave his forecast and mentioned us here in Carlow, Kilkenny, Waterford unlike Met Eireann.

gihj

Couldn't agree more.
Thing is,our experts called every event first but ramped way over the top.
Obviously the few living in certain "banker areas" were spot on but generally the met were spot on.

WolfeIRE

The person who started a thread gives us their opinion 'Discuss.....................................'.



Thanks for you op. Here is mine.

Boards.ie have been forecasting. ME have been nowcasting and even then getting it arseways on occasion. 6cm in west today was their prediction up until one hour ago?

I would gladly listen to boards.ie forecasts rather than 'stick hand out the window' nowcasts anyday!'

Once again thanks for your excellent post at the beginning.

Dotsie~tmp

alfa beta wrote: »

for what it's worth i think su campu has been the most accurate here.

Su Campu is Eagleton. Eagleton is Su Campu! <crying game music>

gihj

"polar low,unlikely to hit us but worth watching.always a chance".
Poor effort Maq:o

gihj

Wolf,
You in particular have been very entertaining and informative,
the thing is after 3 weeks now they have been more accurete than the majority.
There is no argument.

snow ghost

Met Eireann have got some things right, as have some people here on the boards... difference is people here don't get paid for it and they commit themselves to a definitive possible outcome, whereas met eireann often make sweeping generalisations that could rarely be wrong as their communication covers virtually every possible scenario - they are full of 'could be cold, dry or wintry showers of rain, hail, sleet, snow'... and Met Eireann still haven't given us the BIG snow event we want so they should all be sacked!!!

Pangea

This thread title is actually a clever way of getting people to give abuse to Met Eireann.

gihj

Correct ghost but what do you count as a "big snow event"?
Shortly after christmas the eagle said it was unlikely we would miss a "significant event".
To date he was correct in more than just that.
The old reliables got exactly as expected (and i for one am thankful for you guys updates and pics).
The thing is who has been more accurate in general???

Bog Butter

I agree. But you have to remember that this is a discussion board and a lot of it is speculation, something which Met Eireann cannot do. I find that Met Eireann are always pretty accurate and if they are not sure themselves they usually say so.

Many people have the impression that Met Eireann get it wrong more often than not but I think that a lot people don't actually listen to the weather forcast properly. There is usually a lot of detail in one forcast. And listening to the detail is key given the fact that our weather is very localised. I am not informed to talk about how the weather works but I reckon it's probably due to the fact that we live on an island.

Fear Sneachta

gihj wrote: »

Wolf,
You in particular have been very entertaining and informative,
the thing is after 3 weeks now they have been more accurete than the majority.
There is no argument.

To be honest, your comparison is laughable. Met Eireann are a funded organisation with access to things that people on here dont, even still I find Met Eireann to be way off the mark sometimes especially a few days out. There are some people on here whos forecast are very accurate, look up some of MT Craniums posts aswell as Su Campu, Darkman, Trogdor and Weathercheck. These are people who are trying to forecast the weather with their combined knowledge. I know its the first place that I go for weather updates, sure enough, its not right all the time but neither are the professionals. I would be interested in hearing your explanation of how you think the weekend is going to pan out from the latest models or maybe you dont know the first thing about weather. :rolleyes:

maquiladora

gihj wrote: »

"polar low,unlikely to hit us but worth watching.always a chance".
Poor effort Maq:o

His exact words after the 6pm news were "a risk of more substantial snow showers as that polar low comes down".

Something which clearly has not happened. Just like the mention of risks of previous snow potential events by people on here.

The point of my reply to your magnificant post is that forecasts and predictions are often wrong. On here and with Met Eireann.

Oh and, fantastic usage of punctuation marks in your original post. Its always interesting to see the opening content of a thread have more punctuation marks than letters. Poor effort.

paddybar

in general.since I've been here I find the resident lads here(mt, su,wc,wolfe maq and the rest more reliable than met eireann.So much so than now I go to mt's forecast first where before I would check met E or the beeb first.I also bear in mind that as weather fans the lads are more prone to get excited about extreme weather events and as such might ramp things up a tad but on the whole they call it as they see it and more often than not they seem(to me)to see it very well

snow ghost

gihj wrote: »

Correct ghost but what do you count as a "big snow event"?
Shortly after christmas the eagle said it was unlikely we would miss a "significant event".
To date he was correct in more than just that.
The old reliables got exactly as expected (and i for one am thankful for you guys updates and pics).
The thing is who has been more accurate in general???

Big snow event = Met Eireann staff having to wear nappies and stay up all night cacking themselves watching it occur after they said - again - we'd just get some 'rain, sleet, snow and hail'.

As to who is the most accurate - you'd need to do an indepth analysis of Met Eireann's communication to decipher what was actually accurate compared to mere generalised predictions that couldn't be wrong.

I think Wolfe hit the nail on the head earlier in his post.

Deep Easterly

Is this forum supposed to be in competition with met eireann or something? Not to my knowledge, although I for one have no time for those who blatantly slag off the met here on boards for no apparent reason. We are just a bunch of weather enthusiasts with an interest in the weather in Ireland who have a place to share our thoughts and views. If some people don't like that, and I suspect that those who opened this thread don't, then go somewhere else please, and leave us alone.

gihj

Mal,thank you for your reasoned reply.
Maq,fear sneachta please read my post again re old reliables.
Yes i admit i'm no expert,that doesn't take away from my opinion does it?
Please see my previous pose in regard to MT.
He and others on here are consistently "spot on"

gihj

Deep,
the most sensible post on this thread.
I'm only trying to guage an opinion and not anything else.
We are all enthusiasts (some more informative than others i'm afraid to admit):o

hotwhiskey

malman wrote: »

I agree. But you have to remember that this is a discussion board and a lot of it is speculation, something which Met Eireann cannot do. I find that Met Eireann are always pretty accurate and if they are not sure themselves they usually say so.

Many people have the impression that Met Eireann get it wrong more often than not but I think that a lot people don't actually listen to the weather forecast properly. There is usually a lot of detail in one forecast. And listening to the detail is key given the fact that our weather is very localised. I am not informed to talk about how the weather works but I reckon it's probably due to the fact that we live on an island.

SORRY put i listen to Met Eireann very carefully because the weather effects my work also you are right there is alot of detail in there forecast the give everything underneath the sun and the through that in too to cover themselves if there wrong, Met Eireann are always sitting on the fence waiting and waiting and waiting to see what other forecast stations are doing always last with big weather events never taking the bull by the horns. sorry i,m not having ago at you but Met Eireann have got me in so many difficult situations e.g Last year one Friday Met Eireann give us heavy rain what happened we got snow 5" in two hours need i say more.

gihj

Yes hot but the thread title says "3 weeks".
That and that only is the subject of the discussion.
I cannot believe the level of defensive posts in reply to my op

Joe Public

malman wrote: »

I agree. But you have to remember that this is a discussion board and a lot of it is speculation, something which Met Eireann cannot do. I find that Met Eireann are always pretty accurate and if they are not sure themselves they usually say so.

Many people have the impression that Met Eireann get it wrong more often than not but I think that a lot people don't actually listen to the weather forcast properly. There is usually a lot of detail in one forcast. And listening to the detail is key given the fact that our weather is very localised. I am not informed to talk about how the weather works but I reckon it's probably due to the fact that we live on an island.

How do you expect us to listen to the detail when your attention is on Jean's latest number:)

hotwhiskey

gihj wrote: »

Yes hot but the thread title says "3 weeks".
That and that only is the subject of the discussion.
I cannot believe the level of defensive posts in reply to my op

Ok i miss read, i would say its neck and neck at the moment it will be interesting to see what happens the weekend. one thing for sure it will be busy on this board;)

gihj

Hot,

Loaded up with beer,coal,fags and food.
All set for more endless hours of weather watching on here.
Bring it on:D

Deep Easterly

Joe Public wrote: »

How do you expect us to listen to the detail when your attention is on Jean's latest number:)

So true...:D

pistolpetes11

gihj wrote: »

Correct ghost but what do you count as a "big snow event"?
Shortly after christmas the eagle said it was unlikely we would miss a "significant event".
To date he was correct in more than just that.
The old reliables got exactly as expected (and i for one am thankful for you guys updates and pics).
The thing is who has been more accurate in general???

To me your comparing Apples and Oranges

Met
Paid professionals
They should not be getting it wrong but they do sometimes

Boards "experts"
Amateur Enthusiast's
Non Paid and giving up alot of their own good time
They get it wrong sometimes, but have been spot on for an awful lot of events, as well as educating a lot of people as to how Weather and Weather forecasting works

Weather is not an exact science , that sentence has been beaten to death the last few weeks , but how true it is .

TBH , I have not seen you posting much in the weather forums and find this a very strange topic of discussion aimed to get a rise out of some people

gihj

Jesus Pete take the topic as read please.
The point was not whether pro or amateur.
IT's a harmless comparison looking for opinions.
Oh and by the way don't give me any **** regarding my post count.
That is irrelevant besides the fact i have been lurking on here for a long time now 12 months of the year.

pistolpetes11

gihj wrote: »

Jesus Pete take the topic as read please.
The point was not whether pro or amateur.
IT's a harmless comparison looking for opinions.
Oh and by the way don't give me any **** regarding my post count.
That is irrelevant besides the fact i have been lurking on here for a long time now 12 months of the year.

Pro or amateur comes into it with out a shadow of a doubt .

The MET should be more accurate than Boards all the time as they are the paid Pro's , but there not

End of .

I was not talking about your post count , more to the fact that I have not seen much of input in the weather forums before now.

I myself was also a lurker before I joined in back in sep 2008.

gihj

No no no no no.
Read the title of the post please.
Are you deliberately trying to make an issue of an intended fun thread????
Lets start from a level playing field and compare the 2 so.
My contributions to any particular thread are none of your business thank you very much.
You know NOTHING about me or my ability/sparetime or internet access

WolfeIRE

Met Eireann have probably been sitting on the fence on this one as they are unused to such a weather set up. As I said before, I think making a weather forecast involves basing your forecast on past experience. The rest is made up of the same charts we look at. If the experience is not there from recent years then they are forced to be a little more cautious, hence nowcasting.

I do like the people at Met Eireann. I do watch their forecasts all the time. But, you probably do not have to be a rocket scientist to give a weather forecast. There are plenty of people here who give their forecasts based on their own expertise and readings. That's what makes Boards.ie's weather forum top class. We hear a hundred different forecasts.

Using Met Eireann as your only source for weather info is like reading one book about world war two and then being asked your opinion about the war. Using Boards.ie and ME, along with other sources, as platforms for getting your weather info is like reading 100 books about the war and then being asked the same question. The more views you hear, the more informed you are in making your own mind up.

pistolpetes11

gihj wrote: »

No no no no no.
Read the title of the post please.
Are you deliberately trying to make an issue of an intended fun thread????
Lets start from a level playing field and compare the 2 so.
My contributions to any particular thread are none of your business thank you very much.
You know NOTHING about me or my ability/sparetime or internet access

I am discussing the topic at hand ,

I have already given my comparison on the "2"

The thread is not "fun" its derogatory and insulting to the "Boards experts" who have given a lot of time and effort to informing people and keeping them up to date on the weather.

snow ghost

gihj,

One thing for certain is that the people here are more accurate at highlighting and especially giving prior notice of potential weather developments and events than met eireann.

I read about the potential for large scale snowfall for Sunday on these boards before met eireann gave any indication.

That's what makes it interesting... watching how things will pan out... and what Mother nature will decide to do in the end... It's a bit like the grand national with weather fronts... doesn't really matter who if anyone here calls it wrong.

gihj

You are talking nonsense now kid.
Have i spent more time on here or met.ie in the last 3 weeks??
Stupid question to a stupid answer.
I have huge respect for the regulars here and take offence to you making a childish attempt to garner support to what you have developed into a ridiculous argument by including these good folk in it.
I have no more time to discuss this subject with a "petty child" now so on your bike pal.
MT,DE,WC etc i look forward to you lot "defending your wild weather forecast accusations v the Eagle on here":rolleyes:
Thanks for the good work guys

kopp

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The person who started a thread gives us their opinion 'Discuss.....................................'.



Thanks for you op. Here is mine.

Boards.ie have been forecasting. ME have been nowcasting and even then getting it arseways on occasion. 6cm in west today was their prediction up until one hour ago?

I would gladly listen to boards.ie forecasts rather than 'stick hand out the window' nowcasts anyday!'

Once again thanks for your excellent post at the beginning.

I agree with Wolf. Boards.ie all the way.

gihj

Sure ghost,me too.
And i hope the guys get it right too.
Like i said they call it earlier and that takes balls.
Here's hoping:D

pistolpetes11

gihj wrote: »

You are talking nonsense now kid.
Have i spent more time on here or met.ie in the last 3 weeks??
Stupid question to a stupid answer.
I have huge respect for the regulars here and take offence to you making a childish attempt to garner support to what you have developed into a ridiculous argument by including these good folk in it.
I have no more time to discuss this subject with a "petty child" now so on your bike pal.
MT,DE,WC etc i look forward to you lot "defending your wild weather forecast accusations v the Eagle on here":rolleyes:
Thanks for the good work guys

Calling me a child and then you start with the name calling

This is a silly inflammatory thread and should be locked or deleted .

gihj

I fully trust and support the mods and their decisions pete.
However,you cant get it locked just because it goes against your opinion.
Now THAT IS childish:o

gihj

Back ot guys,
At this stage the met don't agree with our expectations for sun/mon.
I have a funny feeling sky were on to something as early as yesterday afternoon:eek:

pistolpetes11

gihj wrote: »

I fully trust and support the mods and their decisions pete.
However,you cant get it locked just because it goes against your opinion.
Now THAT IS childish:o

I give up with you, Think i will go out and stick my head in all the lovely snow thats outside.

Good evening to you Sir.

M.T. Cranium

Naturally I read this thread, it only promised three pages so I had some chance of getting through it.

Some perspective on two things, just as my contribution to the discussion.

They are unrelated things. First, why boards.ie has a forecast thread at all. Back around the end of May, I started it up really with the intention of providing a place for discussions like the ones we've had all winter, but the June weather patterns generally failed to excite the imagination so it turned into a daily forecast from me, not because I figure myself to be some guru on Irish weather, but because nobody else was up at 0400 to look at the model runs. So it's one of those accidental developments, fuelled by the rather unexpected response to the thread (it began to show over 200 views per day, while our weather forum at that time especially had a core group of twenty or thirty people).

Therefore, since people kept spontaneously suggesting that we keep going, and a few of "the lads" were ready to step in for some holiday periods, the boards.ie forecast thread seems to be here to stay, even if a petition were to be signed by a hundred disaffected individuals saying "MTC forecasts are crap" I've already been sweet-talked into continuing by an equal number who seem to hold a different view. And as several here have aptly pointed out, this is more or less an enthusiast forum, so it seems churlish to ask people to stop having fun. I do approach the forecasts with a sort of professional dedication, realizing from numerous comments and PMs that quite a few people count on them for more than personal entertainment or amusement.

I could point back to several instances where the combination of the forecast thread and other forum members' input have given people a good warning of something about to happen, in particular, the nasty freezing rain event on Christmas Day. But my approach is not a competitive one, for one thing not living in Ireland, I don't see all these personages and gurus on TV so I have no idea except from reading boards.ie what they think of coming weather situations, and I only have met.ie's website (which I think is quite good in fact) to rely on for the "official" version of the forecast. I check it but sometimes I am "going to press" before their morning update, so I get to see it after the fact. My impression has been (somewhat different from the topic at hand here) that we often come up with about the same forecast, but I have more space to pad mine out with details if I feel the urge, something that I assume the TV presenters do as well.

Anyway, that's one point, the other has to do with forecast accuracy constraints and I would use this forthcoming snow possibility on Sunday as my example. You can discuss a 72h forecast to death but the problem with the discussion is, you're discussing model depictions that are bound to change closer to the event, so that your forecast has to be either a blind leap of faith that one model has things exactly right (and you can interpret it exactly right), or, a subjective blend of all the guidance, your own gut feeling and whatever you bring to the table. Comparing the outcome to each person's 72h assessment of something like this is dangerous in one case, but if you go through this for say a hundred different events, you'll probably get a sense of who is more reliable and who is less reliable as your guide, and also get some sense of "bias" which is the tendency of an individual to go higher or lower on various elements.

But in this Sunday snowfall case, all that a reasonable forecast can convey is a range of uncertainty at this point, there are marginal elements that may change closer to the time, so trying to "nail" a forecast like this at a three-day time range (it will be two days if I keep typing) is what we call "swinging for the fences" in North American weather jargon (a baseball term meaning you either "hit it out of the park" or you get to sit down.)

That's my input. But I would say that in all these winter threads that we've had going on, there has been plenty of useful insight and forecasting from quite a few people, and I've learned things too from reading them. The idea that somewhere, there exists a particular guru, organization, company, institute, furriner, whatever, who will always be right -- is wrong. That much I am sure of, but people have their individual styles and ranges, with forecasting it is always "caveat emptor" which is more or less how I came to be Emptor Cranium.

gihj

Thanks MT,
I know i speak for everyone on here when i say yes you most certainly are a "guru".
Keep up the dedicated good work my friend:)