Smurfit Kappa

Comordha

Anyone holding? I've had a few since €3.80 and loving the rally. Anyone decided on where they are going to exit?

displaced dub

im still holding, bought in at €5.40... they are probably the only Irish company i currently have that im both happy with and not worried about either..

as the world economy recovers it will need more packaging!!!

as austin powers says... Yeah Baby!!

Comordha

I feel the same way, but feel that way about C&C too. Probably more confident with C&C but this one has huge upside potential.

Comordha

I expect a lot activity from now until the 10th when they release results, have a good feeling about results too

displaced dub

still holding mine and thinking of buying more to be honest. i starting to love cardboard boxes!!!

gramar

I would have loved to got in at 3.80 like some of you guys - I got in at 6.30 about 3-4 months ago and they haven't done much since then. I´m not panicking though as I've read nothing only positive news relating to the company itself and the packaging industry in general so I´m confident the sp will go up and i´m hoping tomorrows results will be the catalyst. Most brokers give a target price of between 9-11euros so fingers crossed it will begin to head in that direction. My own target before getting stuck in was about 10euro and when you consider its sound financial footing compared to some other basket cases on the ISEQ that people are touting, it seems a safe play. It has a good management team, strong balance sheet, strong player in key markets and not over exposed in any of its markets. It's very well placed to take advantage of any economic recovery and the sectors ability to push through price increases would support this view. You can have the excitement of aerlingus and o'Leary,
NAMA Anglos and AIB and BoI but for a solid performing company with sound fundamentals and bright outlook I'll stick with cardboard boxes thanks very much.

Comordha

Why didn't you get in at 3.60? Were you worried? Anyway, as expected great results and certainly heading for €10 mark within a year. The Emerging Market Operation combined with the new debt structure = HAPPY DAYS

gramar

The simple reason for not getting in earlier was that the stock wasn't on my radar - I suppose I'd never seen the attraction in cardboard boxes before but when I begin to do some research I saw it was a strong candidate for solid growth with relatively low risk. My choice has been justified by the results and general industry outlook - the only think lacking is a serious push ahead in the share price but I expect to see it move gradually towards the 10eur mark over the course of the year.

I´m on the look out for other stocks to add so if anyone can suggest companies with sound fundamentals in sectors with good growth/recovery prospects I'd be interested to hear your opinions.

gramar

I think smurfit is suffering from the commentators curse - in this case the brokers - every one of them is singing the praises of the stock in every respect and all have a price target around the 10euro mark. yet the stock has been treading water between the 6-6.80eur mark for the last 4-5 months and is valued at a 20% discount to its competitors.
Is it just the general malaise in the economy thats stifling the shareprice or is there anything else going on?

Comordha

I think it's because the company has a lot of debt. Any companies that are highly indebted at the moment are suffering the Greece-virus.

gramar

Greece is certainly having an effect but Smurfit is well on top of it's debt and is well able to service it - especially going forward as with price increases they will generate a lot of cash. In fact the debt position is considered so benign that most people expect them to hit the acquisition trail in the next year or so. yesterday (15/02/2010) 35c or so was knocked off the price - just days after it has received glowing praise for it's results and being considered a strong, well-positioned company in an industry that is is a 'sweet spot'.
Commentators curse.

displaced dub

WTF is going on with SKG?? Its was over the €7.00 mark a few weeks ago?

gramar

apparently the margins are under a bit of pressure and this is affecting the share price - their price target is still over 10eur at most brokers and I think over the next year or so it will edge upwards -
still a pain in the arse that despite all of the good news and positive outlook etc etc the SP is still getting hit.
If you ask me it's one of the best placed Irish companies to take advantage of the economic recovery and I think the SP doesn't reflect the strong position it has and the excellent prospects.
at least holding Smurfitt you can sleep soundly at night - not like Aib where you dont know if its going to shoot up one day or be nationalised the next.

Comordha

Has anybody else noticed how DAVY are incredibly bullish on this stock. Every second day they are reiterating their €12 price target. If this price comes to fruition I'll be a very happy man as bought in very cheaply. I think this will be a good measure of how they are at setting targets. They were extremely bullish about Petroneft for a very long time also and their predictions were correct as SP has rallied well. Watch this space.

gramar

I've been reading the Broker reports aswell and Davy are very optimistic and really seem to the pushing Smurfit - Like you say if they do get to 12 I'll be delighted myself. The good news just keeps on coming and althought they seem to be better positioned then their peers and are posting equal if not better results they are still comparatively undervalued.
Irish situation might be affecting them maybe.

Idu

Comordha wrote: »

Has anybody else noticed how DAVY are incredibly bullish on this stock. Every second day they are reiterating their €12 price target. If this price comes to fruition I'll be a very happy man as bought in very cheaply. I think this will be a good measure of how they are at setting targets. They were extremely bullish about Petroneft for a very long time also and their predictions were correct as SP has rallied well. Watch this space.

I seem to remember them being extremely bullish on BOI through 2007 and 2008. I'd be wary of Davy. Certainly their own agenda is probably not in line with what their clients would want

gramar

I do agree that they are probably a bit too over the top and a think a more reasonable expectation given the outlook is probably somewhere around 10eur - 10.50eur which is my own target price.
You have to take the brokers with a pinch of salt. Goodbodys was at the same with AIB and even Anglo was being tipped up to the death.
You can't compare Smurfit to the likes of BofI though given the very different nature of the sectors.

Raskolnikov

Idu wrote: »

I seem to remember them being extremely bullish on BOI through 2007 and 2008. I'd be wary of Davy. Certainly their own agenda is probably not in line with what their clients would want

"The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think" - Jesse Livermore.

Comordha

UBS have upgrading the stock to a BUY from Neutral. Target up to €9.5, in line with most of the Irish brokers.

http://www.stockmarketwire.com/display/?id=3971333&sectionId=allNews

DYOR (do your own research) as always.

displaced dub

Comordha wrote: »

UBS have upgrading the stock to a BUY from Neutral. Target up to €9.5, in line with most of the Irish brokers.

http://www.stockmarketwire.com/display/?id=3971333&sectionId=allNews

DYOR (do your own research) as always.

Thinking of putting my Ryanair Divi into smurfit, ive been buying the stock at various prices from 5.00 up.

On that note i thought the Ryanair divi would have been more than what i got i thought o'leary was saying a euro per share, think i got a "Massive" 6cent ps

Mr Cawley

Looks like it was a bit rangy from june to august, I wasn't following it but seems to be supported recently. I'll buy in and hold as a safe play till next May(unless I get AIM itches ha) 15% gain will have to do me...

Comordha

I'm very excited about Q3 results on the 10th.

Mr Cawley

Comordha wrote: »

I'm very excited about Q3 results on the 10th.

Up 3% today, waiting on funds, frustrating.

Thanks for the reminder, i'll be in for that, prob be a small rise in anticipation and on the RNS?

Mr Cawley

Ah what happened, leak about poor report next week?

Comordha

Calm down, hold your horses. No need to get excited over a small blip. It's normal for the SP to go up / down in this quantity. There's only one way with this one, and that's the road to dividends.

Comordha

Right cu*t of a share this one, just when you think you are home and dry it slumps again. Great opportunity to make 10-15% for those interested in weekly trading as it has moved up and down this way at least 5 times now.

Mr Cawley

Comordha wrote: »

Right cu*t of a share this one, just when you think you are home and dry it slumps again. Great opportunity to make 10-15% for those interested in weekly trading as it has moved up and down this way at least 5 times now.

I had my eye elsewhere and only sold out last week. Main markets are taking a kickin'''

displaced dub

Comordha wrote: »

Right cu*t of a share this one, just when you think you are home and dry it slumps again. Great opportunity to make 10-15% for those interested in weekly trading as it has moved up and down this way at least 5 times now.

Comordha, a Cu*t is a useful thing!!! Either way i aint selling one share

Comordha

I agree, me neither. Hold strong and we'll celebrate with the bubbly in town when we get our divies and €12 a share payout from the Norweigan govie.

foxirl

Any idea why it has dropped so much in the last few weeks. Just curious

displaced dub

Comordha wrote: »

I agree, me neither. Hold strong and we'll celebrate with the bubbly in town when we get our divies and €12 a share payout from the Norweigan govie.

You should be supporting your C&C investment and drinking that pi*s they sell in pint bottles:D I will have a pint of the black stuff

foxirl

Up nearly 5% this morning. Cant find any news that would make it jump. Any ideas?

basejumper

Might have something to do with these reports

* SKG worth €18 according to takeover deal from Davy brokers report

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3ASKG.L&it=le&action=detail&id=7671004

* Smurfit related packaging pieces in this mornings Goodbody's brokers report

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/morningrep/download/0125goodbody.pdf

foxirl

basejumper wrote: »

Might have something to do with these reports

* SKG worth €18 according to takeover deal from Davy brokers report

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3ASKG.L&it=le&action=detail&id=7671004

* Smurfit related packaging pieces in this mornings Goodbody's brokers report

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/morningrep/download/0125goodbody.pdf

Cheers, had only done a quick search on TD waterhouse News and the daily newspapers and had seen nothing.

Comordha

This share follows a very distinct volatility pattern, going up and down between around €6.50 and €8.30. It will be interesting to see if it drops down to the €6.30ish mark again.

displaced dub

I agree, SKG has been trading anywhere from 6.50ish upto 8.50ish although now its at 8.70. Will be interesting to see if it gets through the 9.00 mark.

gracemar

The smurfit full year results are coming up so beware!
I noticed that everytime interim of full year results were posted last year the stock lost between 15 and 20%.
My research is not exact but there is a defintite and obvious trend:
10/02/2010 - upon announcing full year results the stock lost 20% and took about 2 months to recover its pre-results price
07/05/2010 - lost about 18% and took over two months to recover its pre-results price
11/08/2010 - again about 18% and only this month it has recover
10/11/2010 - about 15%

Will the same happen again on 9/02/2011?

The shares have rallyed a lot in the last week or so with the US aquisition, price increases, strong demand and general positive sentiment so is time to take a healthy profit?

Comordha

Very good point but I'm not in this for short-term gains, plan on holding to €15 mark and collecting a load of dividends over the next 3 years.

bestie

hit 9 and rising.

gracemar

I know it's like pin the tail on the donkey but how long do you think for 15eur a share might be a reality for smurfit?

Also in reference to dividends what is the yield - or better said what was the yield before they stopped paying?

neil.p.b

gracemar wrote: »

The smurfit full year results are coming up so beware!
I noticed that everytime interim of full year results were posted last year the stock lost between 15 and 20%.
My research is not exact but there is a defintite and obvious trend:
10/02/2010 - upon announcing full year results the stock lost 20% and took about 2 months to recover its pre-results price
07/05/2010 - lost about 18% and took over two months to recover its pre-results price
11/08/2010 - again about 18% and only this month it has recover
10/11/2010 - about 15%

Will the same happen again on 9/02/2011?

The shares have rallyed a lot in the last week or so with the US aquisition, price increases, strong demand and general positive sentiment so is time to take a healthy profit?

Down 4.4% already

gracemar

neil.p.b wrote: »

Down 4.4% already

It's not fun to watch hard earned gains being whittled away especially when the results were strong again and the outlook looks at the very least optimistic but just as the price recovered on previous occasions I think it will do so again this time.

There was no mention about a return to paying dividends though.

neil.p.b

gracemar wrote: »

It's not fun to watch hard earned gains being whittled away especially when the results were strong again and the outlook looks at the very least optimistic but just as the price recovered on previous occasions I think it will do so again this time.

There was no mention about a return to paying dividends though.

No doubt it will recover, just a matter where it bounces. Not in it at the minute, but i'll start to be interested once(if) its gets under 8

gracemar

neil.p.b wrote: »

No doubt it will recover, just a matter where it bounces. Not in it at the minute, but i'll start to be interested once(if) its gets under 8

If the trend of the last few quarterly/annual reports is anything to go by it will get down to 8 or maybe below over the next month or so which I think would still be an attractive entry level.

A little M&A activity in the sector would also do a lot to push the price upwards and there have been a few hints that something might be afoot.

Comordha

Feb 10 (Reuters) - Smurfit Kappa Group Public Ltd Co: * UBS raises Smurfit Kappa price target to 10.50 EUR from 9.50 EUR; rating buy

Comordha

Friday February 11 2011

Packaging giant Smurfit Kappa has confirmed that its three biggest shareholders -- private equity groups Cinven, CVC and Madison Dearborn -- have cut their stakes in the business in a move that boosts the liquidity of the shares and marks what is certainly the beginning of the equity groups' eventual exit from the firm.

Smurfit Kappa said yesterday that Cinven and CVC, which between them own a combined stake of 24.4pc via a vehicle called Smurfit Kappa Feeder, have reduced their holding to 18.1pc. Madison Dearborn has reduced its stake from 21.5pc to 15.9pc.

The investors sold a total of 25 million shares via an institutional placing at €8.50 per share, with the transaction valued at €212m. The sale was handled by Credit Suisse and Davy. The equity groups' remaining stakes are valued at roughly €650m. Smurfit Kappa has a market capitalisation of about €1.9bn. Cinven, CVC and Madison Dearborn have consented to a 90-day lock-up in respect of their remaining stakes in the business.

Madison Dearborn acquired Jefferson Smurfit Group in 2002 and in 2005 the company merged with Kappa.

- John Mulligan

Irish Independent

Comordha

And look who replaced those big investors. This is going in the right direction for sure.

Norges Bank ups stake in Smurfit
NORWAY'S sovereign wealth fund has increased its stake in packaging company Smurfit Kappa Group. In a release to the Irish Stock Exchange, SKG said Norges Bank (the central bank of Norway) had increased its stake to 8.54pc.

displaced dub

Comordha wrote: »

And look who replaced those big investors. This is going in the right direction for sure.

Norges Bank ups stake in Smurfit
NORWAY'S sovereign wealth fund has increased its stake in packaging company Smurfit Kappa Group. In a release to the Irish Stock Exchange, SKG said Norges Bank (the central bank of Norway) had increased its stake to 8.54pc.

This is very good news for us, Christ if your looking to put away a few bob, even now at its current price smurfit is worth a look

Comordha

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bank-starts-tracking-smurfit-kappas-stock-performance-2602002.html

Another big price target coming in at the same range as others. I'm really enjoying this ride.

Comordha

Anyone else sharing my pain with Smurfit Kappa, the share price has been obliterated the past few weeks.

displaced dub

Comordha wrote: »

Anyone else sharing my pain with Smurfit Kappa, the share price has been obliterated the past few weeks.

Hi comordha

Got out a few weeks ago as the drops were too big, made approx 20%.

It's getting close to serious value now although you would want balls of steel to buy anything now!