Tranquil Sea / Ryanair Chase

meriwether

I've been looking at the Ryanair betting for a while now.

I think there's value in TS at best price 7/1.

I liked his PP win (C&D) very much. I like that Poquelin franked the form in the Hennessy (I appreciate there will be a pull in the weights, but it will be 4 lb IIRC).
I also liked his appearance at Leopardstown. Despite him being fav, I thought he ran very well over an inadequate distance. Golden Silver is no fool of a horse either.

Looking at the betting (best prices available)
Poquelin 5/1
Imperial Commander 13/2
TS 7
Barbers Shop 8/1
Voy Por 8/1
Joncol 10
Planet of Sound 12/1
Petit Robin 12/1
Forpadytheplaster 14/1
Deep Purple 16/1

Plenty more others, but life is short.

Now, I think 7 for TS is better than 5 for Poquelin.
Imperial Commander shpould prob go for Gold Cup, same for Barbers Shop. I think VPU's best days are behind him. I dont know about Joncol, I think he may for for the GC also.
Surely Planet, PR and Pady will go for Champion Chase, while Deep Purple hasn't the class for this.

It seems to me that this race is the 99% route for TS according to O'Grady's pronouncements, and if he does turn up, he will probably be 5/2, and possibly lower as Irish money gets stuck into him.

What do people think of his chances, and of taking 7/1?

Rio 2016

I think there are others in the betting that are of better value. Imperial Commander and Joncol would be the two that I would favour and I doubt that either will go for the GC as neither would stand any chance and if they did they wouldn't stay.

I do think that he is of better value than the favourite though.

Colonel Sanders

One of Imperial Commanders owners posts regularly on the Betfair forum

Has been adamant all year his festival target is the Gold Cup

Rio 2016

Doubt that he will feel the same way come March.

Colonel Sanders

No lay money for IC on betfair for the Ryanair at the minute

Morgans

Rio 2016 wrote: »

Doubt that he will feel the same way come March.

Why is this? He definitely wont be meeting Kauto Star again and given how well he runs fresh, its possible, even probable that Imperial Commander's next run would be the festival. Why would he change his mind?

As for the OP. I dont think Tranquil Sea will be too much shorter come March. Even in a best case scenario, I couldnt see him shorter than 4/1 at the festival. Definitely not so short that he is worth betting on now given the possibility of injury. Even if Barber Shop and Poquelin are the only ones in opposition, I think he would be approx those odds. I cant see how he would be 5/2.

meriwether

Morgans wrote: »

Why is this? He definitely wont be meeting Kauto Star again and given how well he runs fresh, its possible, even probable that Imperial Commander's next run would be the festival. Why would he change his mind?

As for the OP. I dont think Tranquil Sea will be too much shorter come March. Even in a best case scenario, I couldnt see him shorter than 4/1 at the festival. Definitely not so short that he is worth betting on now given the possibility of injury. Even if Barber Shop and Poquelin are the only ones in opposition, I think he would be approx those odds. I cant see how he would be 5/2.

Would you expect Barbers shop to run in it?

I wouldn't.

i think the market currently reflects a few horses at the top of the market who will end up running in the GC, and are as such 'making the market' for 7/1 at the moment.

I think he'l face poquelin and VPU at the top of betting, and Im happy that VPU isn't a bet on current form, and that Poquelin isn't better value than Tranquil sea given the Paddy Power form.

Perhaps 5/2 is too skinny, but Id see 7/2-3/1 as likely odds going off.

Do you have any opinion on his ability/likelyhood of winning?

meriwether

Rio 2016 wrote: »

I think there are others in the betting that are of better value. Imperial Commander and Joncol would be the two that I would favour and I doubt that either will go for the GC as neither would stand any chance and if they did they wouldn't stay.

I do think that he is of better value than the favourite though.

If I saw IC lining up, d back him in a match against TS.

But I dont think he will.

I wouldn't back Joncol with Alain Cawley on board. No offence to the guy, but he isn't experienced enough of a jockey to lash my cash money on him - yet.

Morgans

I'd have no problem with Alan Cawley. Check out Chicago Grey vs Ruby on Mourad at Thurles.

I cant see why they'd run Barber Shop in the Gold Cup. The Gold Cup itself last year, the Hennessey this year and the King George were races that SCREAMED non-stayer. Travelled well but then stopped as if shot when 2m6f ish was reached. He would have a far far superior shot in the Ryanair. No chance in the Gold Cup. Deep Purple and Imperial Commander also fall into this category. Also, I think Joncol might run. The Gold Cup might be tempting for the owners, but they have been very patient with the horse. Ran like a non-stayer at Leopardstown but maybe they will give him one shot at the big one. There also maybe one or two that wont want to take on Master Minded over 2m on decent ground (like VPU last year) Golden Silver would be one for instance.

I think Tranquil Sea has a decent chance. I think O'Grady had a well handicapped horse and the stable was in great form at the time of the Paddy Power. I think Poquelin progressed from the race, and if Tranquil Sea is in the form that he was in at the paddy power, he would have a solid chance. Dont want to turn you off it, but I just dont think there needs to be any rush to back it at 7s just now. I think 9/2 on the day would be better value. It some of the others reroute to the Ryanair, you'll get that price easily on the day.

Colonel Sanders

Imperial Commander facing Cheltenham Festival test

NIGEL Twiston-Davies says stable star Imperial Commander could run at Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham.

He is eyeing the Letheby & Christopher Chase on January 30 – the last meeting at Prestbury Park before the Festival.

The race is traditionally a pointer to the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup and attracts the cream of the top chasers from across Europe.

Imperial Commander has been beaten only once in five races over fences at Cheltenham and won the Ryanair Chase at last year's Festival.

Twiston-Davies will be hoping he discover his best form and put a lacklustre run in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day behind him.


"He came out of the race fine," said the Naunton trainer.

"He made a very bad mistake at the second fence and he was never able to recover from it.

"People will say he can't go that way round but I wouldn't be worried about going right-handed with him again in the future.

"We'll have a good think about what we do next but a lot of it will be down to the weather.

"We'll certainly have a look at the Letheby & Christopher Chase back at Cheltenham but if we miss that, he may go straight for the Gold Cup."

No mention of the Ryanair..........

Morgans

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

No mention of the Ryanair..........

Yes. I would expect the horse to be trained for the Gold Cup, but should he patently fail to stay in the old Pillar Chase, which wouldnt be beyond the realms of possibilities, then the Ryanair would be the only viable option.

In fact, I think the only point of considering running the horse in the Pillar would be to find out if he stays, with half an eye to reverting back down in trip should he fail.

I think odds are that a horse that is historically better fresh will go straight to the Gold Cup myself, and find out on the day.

eire750

i think tranquil needs soft to heavy ground to win the ryanair...if he gets it, then great chance

Colonel Sanders

Rio 2016 wrote: »

Imperial Commander and Joncol would be the two that I would favour and I doubt that either will go for the GC as neither would stand any chance and if they did they wouldn't stay.

Bobby Dazzler (Imperial Commander's part owner) posted this on the Betfair form on the 4th:

He will go for the GC and fresh.

Obviously Kempton was not our finest hour - he hates the track and he hates going right handed. I think he made that abundantly clear on Boxing Day, irrespective of what the trainer or myself might think. He won't be asked to try again.

Despite the result it was a fantastic occasion and hats of to a true star. Kauto was awesome, a foot perfect round of jumping and a finely tuned engine - just played with the rest of the field. A joy to watch.

After Kempton watching the Lexus was like having root canal surgery - but that life !

Has shortened in the Gold Cup ante post market too, huge price for the Ryanair

Morgans

The dangers of ante post betting.

Nicky Henderson thinking of Punchestowns for the Ryanair. Would be a big shake up in the market. Looks like he might try to keep him and Long Run apart for the rest of the season. He has also flied the kite of Long Run going for the Arkle.

Rio 2016

What about Nacarat? Ran a fantastic trial in the King George before hitting the wall.

Also Forpaddytheplasterer has to have a huge shout and if he was my horse I would run him in the Rynair and not even contemplate the Champion Chase.

Morgans

Two lively candidates if they were to show up. Connections have kept Nacarat to flat tracks and maybe tempted to keep him fresh for Aintree, and I wouldnt be frightened of Master Minded this year, and he will probably go for the big one. But the race looks tailormade for Forpadydeplasterer.

Morgans

Barbers Shop and Joncol now out of the Gold Cup entries. Looks like both will be going for this. Shaping up to be a nice race.

Juwwi

Schindlers Hunt looks to have a chance and is a definate runner for this race,he is 14/1 with william hills best price anywhere.

with a rating of 161 he has nothing to find on the ratings.
came 3rd in the race last year and 4th in the champion chase in 2008.

Whyno

robbie1977 wrote: »

Schindlers Hunt looks to have a chance and is a definate runner for this race,he is 14/1 with william hills best price anywhere.

with a rating of 161 he has nothing to find on the ratings.
came 3rd in the race last year and 4th in the champion chase in 2008.

If there is any horse due a change in fortune its this fellow. Really would be a worthy winner and if he gets his jumping together will be bang there at the end and no better than dessie hughes to have him peaking on the big day in march.

Huntthe

He'll be there abouts but does he have the belly to win it. At 14/1 he's well worth an interest e/w

Diggy78

robbie1977 wrote: »

Schindlers Hunt looks to have a chance and is a definate runner for this race,he is 14/1 with william hills best price anywhere.

with a rating of 161 he has nothing to find on the ratings.
came 3rd in the race last year and 4th in the champion chase in 2008.

Have been backing Tranquil Sea but if he doesn't win then I'd love to see Schindlers come in. As Whyno says, slight suspicions about the belly for a fight , this of course could be completely untrue and maybe he's just been unlucky to run into horses just a bit better.

UrbanSea

Schindler' hunt is one of my favourite horses. I'd say the race would be too hot for him so wouldn't be backing him. However if he were to win it,i'd be as happy as anyone who did back him.

Colonel Sanders

One horse sticks out for me in the Ryanair, but he's ground dependent and may still run in the Gold Cup (although I think connections would be mad to)

Step forward Alberta's Run at 33/1

cson

Ran a nice race at the weekend to be fair, and that's a pretty big price - essentially 10/3 to place which is value - assuming 1/4 odds and 4 places paid.

Juwwi

robbie1977 wrote: »

Schindlers Hunt looks to have a chance and is a definate runner for this race,he is 14/1 with william hills best price anywhere.

with a rating of 161 he has nothing to find on the ratings.
came 3rd in the race last year and 4th in the champion chase in 2008.

l did him this morning at 14/1 ew. 1/4 odds 1st 3... l think he could go off at half that price on the day.(once he gets there ok)

l also did a double of go native 9/2 and rite of passage 7/2 it works out at 24/1 which looks great value to me at the moment.

l cant remember a cheltenham before where there looked to be so many horses that l fancy a few weeks before it.

it could well be a favourites year at cheltenham this year.

cson

robbie1977 wrote: »

it could well be a favourites year at cheltenham this year.

I think the opposite actually. I think a few will be turned over. I think Dunguib will be turned in the Supreme and I don't think an Irish horse will win the Champion. Kauto and Big Bucks are the only two I'd have a lot of confidence about right now.

Colonel Sanders

Alberta's Run is reasonably short to lay for the Ryanair on Betfair (30 or so) and there is only a few bob up for the Gold Cup at 1000. Problem is backing him now you're taking a chance on both his participation and also on the likely ground conditions, as he needs decent ground to show his best. If he were to line up on decent ground 33/1 would look enormous

cson

The thing is with the ****e weather we're having it'd take 3 weeks of sun/mild weather to dry it up to the level of good I reckon. I don't think that'll happen so the going will be yielding at best imho. Still a big guess though.

mdwexford

AR is an interesting one and he ran better than i thought he would on not ideal ground behind Monets Garden on Saturday.

The drainage is so good at Cheltenham i think the ground will be close enough to good, unless we have a deluge of rain for the next month.

Colonel Sanders

And the big advantage of the Ryanair is the fact its on the Thursday so will be a full 2 days after the curtain raiser. I'm tempted to be honest.

cson

Fail to see why they have Barbers Shop so short, even if you stripped out Kauto/Denman out of his races he still wouldn't have done anything of note. That and being dropped back in trip. He's got to be a lay at 11/2,

mdwexford

cson wrote: »

Fail to see why they have Barbers Shop so short, even if you stripped out Kauto/Denman out of his races he still wouldn't have done anything of note. That and being dropped back in trip. He's got to be a lay at 11/2,

His second in the Jewson is 08 and his second in the Paddy Power are decent pieces of course form. There is a school of thought he is better over 2.5miles than 3.

Poquelin looks a much improved performer this season though and will take some beating.

At bigger prices i like Jack The Giant, 55s on Betfair at the moment which if he gets there and is over his injury problems would be an insane price. I know its asking a lot to win this after 16 months out injured but he was hugely progressive before his injury, has course form, jumps solid and has a touch of class.

Id also like to see Petit Robin run in this and think he would have a cracking chance if he did.

Colonel Sanders

Price on Alberta's Run is gone

25/1 best price now

cson

You backed him then?

To be fair, the way most bookmakers are gone; €5 e/w would probably have done it.

cson

mdwexford wrote: »

His second in the Jewson is 08 and his second in the Paddy Power are decent pieces of course form. There is a school of thought he is better over 2.5miles than 3.

Poquelin looks a much improved performer this season though and will take some beating.

That's the thing; that form is almost 2 years old. He hasn't won in over a year at all. I wonder what price he'd be if it wasn't Henderson who trained him? I'm guessing almost double figures. Which rates 11/2 as majorly skinny imo.

Poquelin is definitely the one to beat though, I agree with that.

Colonel Sanders

No didn't back Alberta's.

Morgans

cson wrote: »

That's the thing; that form is almost 2 years old. He hasn't won in over a year at all. I wonder what price he'd be if it wasn't Henderson who trained him? I'm guessing almost double figures. Which rates 11/2 as majorly skinny imo.

Poquelin is definitely the one to beat though, I agree with that.

He hasnt race shorter than 3m in nearly two years. Being beaten by an all out Imperial Commander (who went on to win the Ryanair) when last running over less than 3m. If he had no form whatsoever, or hasnt been running well and unable to win would have some merit, but the facts are that up to 2m6f in the Gold Cup last year, in the Hennessey this year, he was travelling better than anything, simply fell in a hole once the stamina ran out. They werent exactly poor races he was running in either. He was the only horse capable of keeping tabs (to an extent) with Kauto Star in the King George. Again falling in a hole when the exertions told.

He may not win, but he is definitely a player. I think its clear that he is more than a handicapper (form with Imperial Commander and the impression he has given in races since) Tranquil Sea and Poquelin look capable of progressing but havent proven that yet. I personally think that Schindlers Hunt is a great shout at the prices.

Hudsonshorses

Voy Por Ustedes at around 14/1 is the value bet in the Ryanair.

Morgans

If he couldn't win last year and hasnt been nearly in the same form coming into the race this year, I dont think so. On the downgrade, even at 2m last year he would have eaten Fix The Rib and Mahogany Blaze. One of the first ones I'd cross off the list to be honest.

deewhy

Anyone know where Rare Bob is - ? I thought this was a horse to follow for this race this year - priced up on betfair as a doubtful runner. I like Jy'Vole or Chapoturgeon - won the Jewson by 9 lengths last year. Course form is a big factor

radharc

Schindlers Hunt the value for me - his form from last year is stronger than anything else in the race imo and ran a cracker last time out - looked all over the winner until stamina gave way

mdwexford

mdwexford wrote: »

His second in the Jewson is 08 and his second in the Paddy Power are decent pieces of course form. There is a school of thought he is better over 2.5miles than 3.

Poquelin looks a much improved performer this season though and will take some beating.

At bigger prices i like Jack The Giant, 55s on Betfair at the moment which if he gets there and is over his injury problems would be an insane price. I know its asking a lot to win this after 16 months out injured but he was hugely progressive before his injury, has course form, jumps solid and has a touch of class.

Id also like to see Petit Robin run in this and think he would have a cracking chance if he did.

Just got some fancy prices matched on Petit Robin in this, just need him to turn up now and ill have a tasty free bet.

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

Just got some fancy prices matched on Petit Robin in this, just need him to turn up now and ill have a tasty free bet.

from the sportinglife

Petit Robin: He's in the Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase and the Ryanair and I've been mulling things over this weekend. It could just be the Ryanair will be the easier race although I've Barbers Shop for that and nothing else for the Champion Chase. We've got to get Petit Robin into the race he has the best chance of winning though and it just occurs that could be the Ryanair. I didn't get to speak to owner John Poynton on Sunday and will discuss it with him. It's a possibility he'll go over the longer trip, we'll see.

I finally bit the bullet and backed Alberta's Run for the Ryanair with bet365 NRNB at 25/1.

mdwexford

Yeah thanks, read that when you linked it yesterday, thats what made me decide to put up a few requests. Got an average price of 44s, if he runs and i can lay at 10s or so ill be in a nice position.

meriwether

Looking forward to this tomorrow, have backed TS 5/1.

Colonel Sanders

I backed Alberta's at 25/1. Might be asking a bit much for him to win but a place isn't out of the question

Clemon

Had €10 E/W on Petit Robin

Morgans

Magnificent Colonel Sanders, magnificent.

Whyno

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I backed Alberta's at 25/1. Might be asking a bit much for him to win but a place isn't out of the question

What a ride....Nice one

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote: »

Magnificent Colonel Sanders, magnificent.

Cheers lads!

What a day after 2 horrible days

Took a punt the ground would be good by thursday. 16/1 Copper Bleu & 25/1 Alberta's makes it a great day, probably my best ever

Whyno

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Cheers lads!

What a day after 2 horrible days

Took a punt the ground would be good by thursday. 16/1 Copper Bleu & 25/1 Alberta's makes it a great day, probably my best ever

Did you do a double if ya did you can have a lend of my wheelbarrow:D